FY2026Q3 电话会逐字稿
发言人
点击某位发言人,只突出显示其发言;再次点击恢复| 姓名 | 职位 | 机构 | 段落 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Amy Hood | CFO | Microsoft | 37 |
| Satya Nadella | Chairman and CEO | Microsoft | 33 |
| Jonathan Neilson | VP of Investor Relations | Microsoft | 14 |
| Operator | 9 | ||
| Keith Weiss | Head of US Software Research | Morgan Stanley | 4 |
| Rishi Jaluria | Software Analyst | RBC Capital Markets | 4 |
| Mark Moerdler | Senior Research Analyst | Bernstein Research | 3 |
| Karl Keirstead | Managing Director of Software Equity Research | UBS | 2 |
| Gabriela Borges | Head of US Software Research | Goldman Sachs | 2 |
| Kirk Materne | Senior Managing Director | Evercore ISI | 2 |
| Brent Thill | Tech Sector Leader of Software and Internet Research | Jefferies | 1 |
● 公司管理层 / 主持人 ● 外部分析师
P00100:00
Operator
It is now my pleasure to introduce Jonathan Neilson, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
现在我很荣幸地介绍投资者关系副总裁 Jonathan Neilson。请开始。
P00200:32
Jonathan NeilsonVP of Investor Relations
Good afternoon, and thank you for joining us today. On the call with me are Satya Nadella, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Amy Hood, Chief Financial Officer, Alice Jolla, Chief Accounting Officer, and Brian DeFoe, Deputy General Counsel and Corporate Secretary. On the microsoft investor relations website, you can find our earnings press release and financial summary slide deck, which is intended to supplement our prepared remarks during today's call and provides the reconciliation of differences between GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures. More detailed outlook slides will be available on the microsoft investor relations website when we provide outlook commentary on today's call. On this call, we will discuss certain non-GAAP items. The non-GAAP financial measures provided should not be considered as a substitute for or superior to the measures of financial performance prepared in accordance with GAAP.
各位下午好,感谢今天参加会议。和我一起参加电话会的有董事长兼首席执行官 Satya Nadella、首席财务官 Amy Hood、首席会计官 Alice Jolla,以及副总法律顾问兼公司秘书 Brian DeFoe。在微软投资者关系网站上,大家可以找到我们的财报新闻稿和财务摘要演示材料,用于补充今天电话会上的准备发言,并提供 GAAP 与非 GAAP 财务指标差异的调节表。在今天电话会上给出展望评论时,更详细的展望材料将在微软投资者关系网站上提供。本次电话会将讨论某些非 GAAP 项目。所提供的非 GAAP 财务指标不应被视为可以替代或优于按照 GAAP 编制的财务业绩指标。
P00301:26
They are included as additional clarifying items to aid investors in further understanding the company's third quarter performance in addition to the impact these items and events have on the financial results. All growth comparisons we make on the call today relate to the corresponding period of last year, unless otherwise noted. We will also provide growth rates in constant currency when available as a framework for assessing how our underlying businesses performed, excluding the effect of foreign currency rate fluctuations. Where growth rates are the same in constant currency, we will refer to the growth rate only. We will post our prepared remarks to our website immediately following the call until the complete transcript is available. Today's call is being webcast live and recorded. If you ask a question, it will be included in our live transmission, in the transcript, and in any future use of the recording.
它们作为额外的说明项目,帮助投资者进一步理解公司第三季度的业绩,以及这些项目和事件对财务结果的影响。除非另有说明,今天电话会上的所有增长比较均与上年同期相比。在可行的情况下,我们也会提供按固定汇率计算的增速,作为评估剔除汇率波动影响后基础业务表现的框架。当按固定汇率计算的增速相同时,我们只说一个增速。电话会结束后,我们会立即把准备发言发布到网站上,直到完整的逐字稿可用。今天的电话会正在网络直播并录音。如果您提问,问题将包含在直播、逐字稿以及录音的任何后续使用中。
P00402:22
You can replay the call and view the transcript on the Microsoft Investor Relations website. During this call, we will be making forward-looking statements, which are predictions, projections, or other statements about future events. These statements are based on current expectations and assumptions that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Actual results could materially differ because of factors discussed in today's earnings press release, in the comments made during this conference call, and in the Risk Factors section of our Form 10-K, Forms 10-Q, and other reports and filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. We do not undertake any duty to update any forward-looking statement. With that, I'll turn the call over to Satya.
大家可以在微软投资者关系网站上回放电话会并查看逐字稿。本次电话会中,我们将作出前瞻性陈述,即关于未来事件的预测、预计或其他陈述。这些陈述基于当前的预期和假设,受到风险和不确定性的影响。由于今天财报新闻稿中讨论的因素、本次电话会上的评论,以及我们 10-K 表格、10-Q 表格和向美国证券交易委员会提交的其他报告和文件中风险因素部分所述的因素,实际结果可能存在重大差异。我们不承担更新任何前瞻性陈述的义务。下面我把会议交给 Satya。
P00503:07
Satya NadellaChairman and CEO
Thank you very much, Jonathan. It was a record third quarter powered by the continued strength of Microsoft Cloud, which exceeded $54 billion in revenue, up 29% year-over-year. Our AI business surpassed $37 billion ARR, up 123%. We are at the beginning of one of the most consequential platform shifts that will change the entire tech stack as agents proliferate and become the dominant workload. This will drive TAM expansion and change the value creation equation across the entire economy. To capture this opportunity, we are executing against two priorities. First, we are building the world's leading cloud and AI infrastructure for agentic computing era. Second, we are building high-value agentic systems across core domains such as productivity, coding, and security.
非常感谢 Jonathan。在微软云持续强劲的推动下,这是一个创纪录的第三季度:微软云收入超过 540 亿美元,同比增长 29%。我们的 AI 业务年化收入运行率超过 370 亿美元,增长 123%。我们正处于最具深远影响的平台转变之一的开端,随着智能体的大量涌现并成为主导工作负载,它将改变整个技术栈。这将推动总潜在市场扩张,并改变整个经济中的价值创造方式。为抓住这一机会,我们正围绕两个重点执行:第一,为智能体计算时代打造世界领先的云和 AI 基础设施;第二,在生产力、编程和安全等核心领域打造高价值的智能体系统。
P00604:02
These two layers reinforce each other. We are focused on driving competitive value and differentiation for customers across each so that they can eval max their outcomes. Today, I'll focus my remarks on both priorities, starting with infrastructure. We're optimizing every layer of the tech stack, from DC design to silicon to systems software, the model architecture, as well as its optimization. This is translating into operational gains. We have reduced dock-to-live times for new GPUs in our biggest regions by nearly 20% since the beginning of the year. Our Fairwater data center in Wisconsin came online earlier this month, six weeks ahead of schedule, allowing us to recognize revenue earlier. We delivered a 40% improvement in inference throughput for our most used models across Copilot, driven by our software and hardware optimization work.
这两层相互强化。我们专注于在每一层为客户创造有竞争力的价值和差异化,让他们能够最大化自己的成果。今天我的发言将围绕这两个重点,先从基础设施说起。我们正在优化技术栈的每一层,从数据中心设计到芯片、系统软件、模型架构及其优化。这正在转化为运营上的收益。今年以来,我们把最大区域中新 GPU 从到货到上线的时间缩短了近 20%。我们位于威斯康星州的 Fairwater 数据中心本月初上线,比计划提前六周,使我们能够更早确认收入。得益于软硬件优化工作,我们在 Copilot 中最常用模型的推理吞吐量提升了 40%。
P00704:59
All up, we added another gigawatt of capacity this quarter and remain on track to double our overall footprint in just 2 years. We are moving aggressively to add capacity aligned to our demand signals we see, and we've announced new data center investments across 4 continents. We also continue to modernize our fleet with our first-party innovation alongside the latest from NVIDIA and AMD. Across our fleet, millions of servers are powered by our custom networking, security, and virtualization silicon, including Azure Boost, as well as our first-party CPUs and accelerators. Our Maia 200 AI accelerator, which offers over 30% improved tokens per dollar compared to the latest silicon in our fleet, is now live in our Iowa and Arizona data centers.
总体而言,本季度我们又新增了 1 吉瓦的算力,并有望在短短 2 年内把整体规模翻一番。我们正在积极地按照看到的需求信号增加产能,并宣布了横跨 4 个大洲的新数据中心投资。我们还继续用第一方创新以及 NVIDIA 和 AMD 的最新产品更新我们的设备。在我们的设备中,数以百万计的服务器由我们定制的网络、安全和虚拟化芯片(包括 Azure Boost)以及我们的第一方 CPU 和加速器驱动。我们的 Maia 200 AI 加速器每美元 token 数比我们设备中的最新芯片提高 30% 以上,现已在爱荷华州和亚利桑那州的数据中心上线。
P00805:50
Our Cobalt server CPU is deployed in nearly half of our DC regions, running workloads at scale for customers like Databricks, Siemens, and Snowflake. As our largest customers scale their AI deployments, they're increasingly leveraging other services across our platform and choosing to run those workloads on Cobalt. We are expanding Cobalt supply significantly to meet this demand. The next layer up from infrastructure is the agent app platform. It starts with model choice. We offer the broadest selection of models of any hyperscaler, so customers can choose the right model for the right workload across OpenAI, Anthropic, open source, and more. Over 10,000 customers have used more than one model on Foundry, 5,000 have used open-source models, and the number who have used Anthropic and OpenAI models increased 2x quarter-over-quarter.
我们的 Cobalt 服务器 CPU 已部署在近一半的数据中心区域,为 Databricks、Siemens 和 Snowflake 等客户大规模运行工作负载。随着最大的客户扩大 AI 部署,他们越来越多地使用我们平台上的其他服务,并选择在 Cobalt 上运行这些工作负载。我们正在大幅扩大 Cobalt 的供给以满足这一需求。基础设施之上的一层是智能体应用平台,它从模型选择开始。我们提供所有超大规模云厂商中最丰富的模型选择,让客户能够在 OpenAI、Anthropic、开源模型等之间为合适的工作负载选择合适的模型。超过 10000 家客户在 Foundry 上使用了不止一个模型,5000 家使用了开源模型,同时使用 Anthropic 和 OpenAI 模型的客户数量环比增长到 2 倍。
P00906:44
For example, Bayer is using multiple models in Microsoft Foundry to create its own in-house agent platform with more than 20,000 active monthly users. All up, over 300 customers are on track to process over 1 trillion tokens on Microsoft Foundry this year, accelerating 30% quarter-over-quarter. We also remain focused on our first-party model work to differentiate our high-value copilots and agents and reduce cogs. We introduced MAI-Transcribe-1, a state-of-the-art speech-to-text model, and MAI-Image-2, one of the top image generation models in the world. These models are already powering first-party scenarios like image generation in Microsoft Bing and Microsoft PowerPoint. We're working towards having Transcribe-One power transcription in Copilot and Microsoft Teams. Early signals show 67% increase in GPU efficiency with Transcribe-One and up to 260% increase in Image-Two.
例如,Bayer 正在 Microsoft Foundry 中使用多个模型打造自己的内部智能体平台,月活跃用户超过 20000 人。总体而言,超过 300 家客户有望在今年于 Microsoft Foundry 上处理超过 1 万亿个 token,环比加速 30%。我们也继续专注于第一方模型工作,以实现高价值 Copilot 和智能体的差异化并降低营业成本。我们推出了最先进的语音转文字模型 MAI-Transcribe-1,以及全球顶级图像生成模型之一 MAI-Image-2。这些模型已经在为 Microsoft Bing 和 Microsoft PowerPoint 中的图像生成等第一方场景提供支持。我们正在努力让 Transcribe-One 为 Copilot 和 Microsoft Teams 的转录功能提供支持。早期信号显示,使用 Transcribe-One 的 GPU 效率提升 67%,使用 Image-Two 最多提升 260%。
P01007:43
We also brought MAI models to commercial customers like Shutterstock and WPP for the first time through Foundry. We are innovating on OpenAI IP to drive product evals and lower cogs. Two recent examples of what we have done with multi-step retrieval with Work IQ in Copilot and how reasoning adapts to intent complexity in Researcher with much reduced latency and increased accuracy. The next layer up is all about enterprise data and context across Fabric, Foundry, Microsoft 365, and our security graph. We are building a unified IQ layer for organizational intelligence. Thousands of enterprises already are accessing context across these IQ layers. As AI usage grows, so does the context layer, creating a flywheel that continuously improves the grounding, relevance, and effectiveness of every agent they use and build, making our IQ layers an unmatched context engine for organizational intelligence.
我们还首次通过 Foundry 把 MAI 模型提供给 Shutterstock 和 WPP 等商业客户。我们正在基于 OpenAI 的知识产权进行创新,以提升产品评测表现并降低营业成本。最近的两个例子是:Copilot 中借助 Work IQ 实现的多步检索,以及 Researcher 中推理如何根据意图复杂度自适应,从而大幅降低延迟并提高准确率。再往上一层是横跨 Fabric、Foundry、Microsoft 365 和我们安全图谱的企业数据和上下文。我们正在为组织智能构建统一的 IQ 层。已有数千家企业在跨这些 IQ 层获取上下文。随着 AI 使用量增长,上下文层也在增长,形成一个飞轮,持续改进他们使用和构建的每个智能体的依据、相关性和有效性,使我们的 IQ 层成为无与伦比的组织智能上下文引擎。
P01108:46
More broadly, our database business accelerated quarter-over-quarter. Cosmos DB alone saw 50% year-over-year revenue growth driven by AI app workloads. We now have 35,000 paid Fabric customers, up 60% year-over-year. In all of the amount of data in Fabric OneLake data lake increased nearly 4x year-over-year. Over 15,000 customers now use both Foundry and Fabric, up 60% year-over-year as enterprises connect agents to real-time operational, analytical, and unstructured data that Fabric brings together. We are very excited about the continued progress with Foundry Agent Service and how customers can now build durable stateful agents that run across time boundaries, orchestrate tools and models, and close the loop with evals and improvement over long-running workflows. Beyond Fabric and Foundry, we are also helping knowledge workers build agents with tools like Copilot Studio.
更广泛地说,我们的数据库业务环比加速。仅 Cosmos DB 一项,在 AI 应用工作负载的推动下收入就同比增长 50%。我们现在有 35000 家 Fabric 付费客户,同比增长 60%。Fabric OneLake 数据湖中的数据总量同比增长到近 4 倍。超过 15000 家客户同时使用 Foundry 和 Fabric,同比增长 60%,因为企业正把智能体与 Fabric 汇集的实时运营数据、分析数据和非结构化数据连接起来。我们对 Foundry Agent Service 的持续进展感到非常兴奋:客户现在可以构建持久、有状态的智能体,跨越时间边界运行、编排工具和模型,并在长时运行的工作流中通过评测和改进形成闭环。除了 Fabric 和 Foundry,我们还在通过 Copilot Studio 等工具帮助知识工作者构建智能体。
P01209:48
Nearly 90% of the Fortune 500 now have active agents built with our low-code, no-code tools, and we are seeing fast growth of our Copilot credit consumptive offer, up nearly 2x quarter-over-quarter as customers increasingly extend Copilot with custom agents tailored to their workflows. Finally, with Agent 365, we offer a control plane that extends companies' existing governance, identity, security, and management frameworks to agents. Tens of thousands of companies are already managing tens of millions of agents in Agent 365, and we expect this momentum to grow significantly as agents will increasingly need tools for identity governance, security, and more. Let me turn to the high-value agentic systems we ourselves are building on this platform. We are evolving our family of Copilots from synchronous assistants to async coworkers that can execute long-running tasks across key domains.
近 90% 的财富 500 强现在都有使用我们低代码、无代码工具构建的活跃智能体;我们的 Copilot 点数按用量计费产品也增长迅速,环比增长到近 2 倍,因为客户越来越多地用针对自身工作流定制的智能体来扩展 Copilot。最后,借助 Agent 365,我们提供一个控制平面,把企业现有的治理、身份、安全和管理框架延伸到智能体上。已有数万家公司在 Agent 365 中管理着数千万个智能体,我们预计随着智能体越来越需要身份治理、安全等工具,这一势头将显著增长。下面谈谈我们自己在这个平台上构建的高价值智能体系统。我们正在把 Copilot 系列从同步助手演进为能够在关键领域执行长时任务的异步“同事”。
P01310:50
In knowledge work, it was another record quarter for Microsoft 365 Copilot seat adds, which increased 250% year-over-year, representing our fastest growth since launch. Quarter-over-quarter, we continue to see acceleration and now have over 20 million Microsoft 365 Copilot paid seats. The number of customers with over 50,000 seats quadrupled year-over-year, Accenture now has over 740,000 seats, our largest Copilot win to date. Bayer, Johnson & Johnson, Mercedes, and Roche all committed to 90,000 or more seats. Copilot is uniquely valuable at work where nearly every task depends on organizational context. Work IQ grounds Copilot responses in the full context of an organization, including people, roles, documents, and communications, all within the company's security boundary.
在知识工作方面,Microsoft 365 Copilot 的新增席位又创纪录,同比增长 250%,是自推出以来最快的增长。环比来看,我们继续看到加速,Microsoft 365 Copilot 付费席位现已超过 2000 万。席位数超过 50000 的客户数量同比增长到 4 倍;Accenture 现在拥有超过 740000 个席位,是我们迄今最大的 Copilot 订单。Bayer、Johnson & Johnson、Mercedes 和 Roche 都承诺采购 90000 个或更多席位。Copilot 在工作中具有独特价值,因为几乎每项任务都依赖组织上下文。Work IQ 让 Copilot 的回答基于组织的完整上下文,包括人员、角色、文档和沟通记录,而且全部在公司的安全边界之内。
P01411:46
The system of work behind Work IQ alone now spans more than 17 exabytes of data, growing 35% year-over-year. The liquidity and freshness of that data matters, with billions of emails, documents, chats, hundreds of millions of Teams meetings, and millions of SharePoint sites added each day. That context is getting even richer as Copilot adoption grows, Copilot and agent conversations and artifacts that create feedback into Work IQ, making it even more context rich. We continue to increase the pace of feature innovation across Microsoft 365 Copilot, introducing over 625 updates over the past year, up 50%. In Microsoft 365 Copilot, you now have access in chat to multiple models by default with intelligent auto-routing. In agents with Critique and Council, you can use multiple models together to generate optimal responses.
仅 Work IQ 背后的工作体系现在就涵盖超过 17 EB(艾字节)的数据,同比增长 35%。这些数据的流动性和新鲜度很重要:每天新增数十亿封邮件、文档和聊天记录,数亿场 Teams 会议,以及数百万个 SharePoint 站点。随着 Copilot 普及,上下文变得更加丰富:Copilot 与智能体的对话以及产生的产出物会反馈到 Work IQ,使其上下文更加丰富。我们继续加快 Microsoft 365 Copilot 的功能创新步伐,过去一年推出了超过 625 项更新,增长 50%。在 Microsoft 365 Copilot 中,聊天现在默认可使用多个模型,并具备智能自动路由;在智能体中,借助 Critique 和 Council,你可以同时使用多个模型来生成最佳回答。
P01512:45
As of last week, agent mode is now default experience across Microsoft Copilot in Microsoft Word, Microsoft Excel, and Microsoft PowerPoint, and with Cowork, you now have a new way to delegate and complete work using Microsoft Copilot. All this innovation is driving record usage intensity across Microsoft Copilot. We have seen a surge in usage of our first-party agents with monthly active usage up 6x year-to-date. Microsoft Copilot queries per user were up nearly 20% quarter-over-quarter. To put this momentum in perspective, weekly engagement is now at the same level as Outlook as more and more users make Microsoft Copilot a habit. When it comes to biz apps, we are seeing a new pattern emerge as customers shift from traditional seat model to seats plus consumption. The customer service category is at the forefront of this transformation, as nearly 60% of our service customers are already purchasing usage-based credits.
截至上周,智能体模式已成为 Microsoft Word、Microsoft Excel 和 Microsoft PowerPoint 中 Microsoft Copilot 的默认体验;借助 Cowork,你现在有了一种用 Microsoft Copilot 委派和完成工作的新方式。所有这些创新正在推动 Microsoft Copilot 创纪录的使用强度。我们看到第一方智能体的使用量激增,月活跃使用量今年以来增长到 6 倍。Microsoft Copilot 每用户查询量环比增长近 20%。从这个势头来看,随着越来越多用户把 Microsoft Copilot 变成习惯,其每周参与度现已与 Outlook 处于同一水平。在业务应用方面,随着客户从传统席位模式转向席位加用量模式,我们看到一种新模式正在出现。客户服务类别走在这一转型前列,近 60% 的服务类客户已在购买按用量计费的点数。
P01613:43
For example, HSBC uses pre-built agents with Dynamics 365 to manage customer inquiries across products, markets, regulatory requirements, reducing issue resolution time by over 30%. Our agentic products in LinkedIn Talent Solutions, which help hirers automate time-consuming tasks like sourcing, screening, and drafting messages, have already surpassed a $450 million annualized revenue run rate. When it comes to developers, GitHub itself is seeing unprecedented growth driven by proliferation of agentic coding, and we are hard at work to scale and meet this demand. We see this even with GitHub Copilot. Nearly 140,000 organizations now use GitHub Copilot, and enterprise subscribers have nearly tripled year-over-year. The majority of users leverage multiple models. We're also seeing rapid adoption of GitHub Copilot CLI, with usage nearly doubling month-over-month.
例如,HSBC 使用 Dynamics 365 的预置智能体来处理跨产品、跨市场、涉及监管要求的客户咨询,问题解决时间缩短了 30% 以上。LinkedIn 人才解决方案中的智能体产品帮助招聘方自动完成寻访、筛选和起草消息等耗时任务,年化收入运行率已超过 4.5 亿美元。在开发者方面,在智能体编程普及的推动下,GitHub 本身正在经历前所未有的增长,我们正在努力扩容以满足需求。我们在 GitHub Copilot 上也看到了这一点:近 140000 个组织现在使用 GitHub Copilot,企业订阅用户同比增长近两倍。大多数用户在使用多个模型。我们还看到 GitHub Copilot CLI 被迅速采用,使用量环比几乎每月翻倍。
P01714:45
Earlier this week, we announced our move to usage-based pricing model for GitHub Copilot as we align pricing to actual usage and costs. When it comes to security, the physics of cybersecurity has changed as AI compresses the window between vulnerability and exploitation. To help mitigate risk immediately, we sim-ship Defender protections when updates for AI-discovered vulnerabilities are released, and we are on course to productize new multi-modal AI-driven scanning harness as well. Already, the number of Security Copilot customers increased 2x year-over-year. Our data security triage agents alone handled over 2 million unique alerts this quarter, and we are helping customers secure their AI deployments as well. 35 billion Copilot interactions have been audited by Purview to date, up 7x year-over-year.
本周早些时候,我们宣布 GitHub Copilot 将转向按用量定价,使价格与实际用量和成本挂钩。在安全方面,随着 AI 压缩了漏洞被发现到被利用之间的时间窗口,网络安全的“物理规律”已经改变。为立即帮助降低风险,在针对 AI 发现的漏洞发布更新时,我们同步推出 Defender 防护,我们也正在把新的多模态 AI 驱动扫描框架产品化。Security Copilot 的客户数量已同比增长到 2 倍。仅我们的数据安全分诊智能体本季度就处理了超过 200 万条唯一警报,我们也在帮助客户保障其 AI 部署的安全。迄今为止,Purview 已审计 350 亿次 Copilot 交互,同比增长到 7 倍。
P01815:41
Finally, when it comes to our consumer business, we're doing the foundational work required to win back fans and strengthen engagement across Windows, Xbox, Bing, and Edge. In the near term, we are focused on fundamentals, prioritizing quality and serving our core users better. You see this in the work underway across our consumer products. With Windows, we recently announced performance improvements for lower memory devices, streamlined the Windows update experience, and brought back focus to core features and fundamentals that matter most to our customers. You also see this in Xbox, where the team is recommitting to our core fans and players and shaping the future of play. Last week's Game Pass changes are one example of how we are staying responsive to customer feedback. Monthly active Windows devices surpassed 1.6 billion, and over time, Windows value will extend to deliver unmetered intelligence at the edge.
最后谈谈消费者业务。我们正在做必要的基础工作,在 Windows、Xbox、Bing 和 Edge 上赢回粉丝、加强参与度。近期我们专注于基本功,把质量放在首位,更好地服务核心用户。你可以从我们消费者产品正在进行的工作中看到这一点。在 Windows 上,我们最近宣布了针对低内存设备的性能改进,简化了 Windows 更新体验,并重新聚焦于客户最在意的核心功能和基础。在 Xbox 上也是如此,团队正在重新致力于服务核心粉丝和玩家,塑造游戏的未来。上周对 Game Pass 的调整就是我们积极回应客户反馈的一个例子。Windows 月活跃设备超过 16 亿台,随着时间推移,Windows 的价值将延伸到在边缘侧提供不计量的智能。
P01916:42
Our Edge browser has taken share for 20 consecutive quarters, and Bing monthly active users reached 1 billion for the first time. LinkedIn has 1.3 billion members, and we are seeing increased depth of conversation, and it's the leading B2B sales and advertising channel for large and small businesses. We set new records for monthly Xbox active users in the quarter, as well as game streaming hours. In Microsoft 365 Consumer, we now have nearly 95 million subscribers, and early signals show increasing satisfaction as we make agent mode the default. Across everything I've talked about, we're also hard at work changing the way we work. Our North Star remains the same, delivering customer value with highest quality and top-class innovation, and this is what gives me confidence in our ability to shape the next phase of growth for our company and our customers.
我们的 Edge 浏览器已连续 20 个季度提升份额,Bing 月活跃用户首次达到 10 亿。LinkedIn 拥有 13 亿会员,我们看到对话的深度在提升,它也是大中小企业领先的 B2B 销售和广告渠道。本季度 Xbox 月活跃用户数和游戏串流时长都创下新纪录。在 Microsoft 365 消费者业务上,我们现在有近 9500 万订阅用户,早期信号显示,随着我们把智能体模式设为默认,满意度在提高。在我谈到的所有方面,我们也在努力改变我们的工作方式。我们的北极星依然不变:以最高的质量和一流的创新为客户创造价值,这让我对我们为公司和客户塑造下一阶段增长的能力充满信心。
P02017:42
With that, let me turn it over to Amy to walk through our financial results and outlook.
下面请 Amy 介绍财务业绩和展望。
P02117:46
Amy HoodCFO
Thank you, Satya, and good afternoon, everyone. We delivered results that exceeded expectations across revenue, operating income, and earnings per share, driven by strong demand and execution. As Satya shared, our AI business annual revenue run rate surpassed $37 billion this quarter, growing 123% year-over-year. We're accelerating our pace of innovation as we execute against the expansive opportunity ahead. This quarter, revenue was $82.9 billion, up 18% and 15% in constant currency. Gross margin dollars increased 16% and 13% in constant currency, while operating income increased 20% and 16% in constant currency. Earnings per share was $4.27, an increase of 21% and 18% in constant currency when adjusted for the impact from our investment in OpenAI.
谢谢 Satya,大家下午好。在强劲需求和执行的推动下,我们的营收、营业利润和每股收益都超出了预期。正如 Satya 所说,本季度我们 AI 业务的年化收入运行率超过 370 亿美元,同比增长 123%。在把握面前广阔机会的过程中,我们正在加快创新步伐。本季度营收为 829 亿美元,增长 18%,按固定汇率计算增长 15%。毛利额增长 16%,按固定汇率计算增长 13%;营业利润增长 20%,按固定汇率计算增长 16%。每股收益为 4.27 美元,剔除对 OpenAI 投资的影响后增长 21%,按固定汇率计算增长 18%。
P02218:38
FX was roughly in line with guidance at the total company level. Company gross margin percentage was 68%, down year-over-year, driven by continued investment in AI infrastructure and growing AI product usage. The impact from these investments was partially offset by ongoing efficiency gains, particularly in Azure and M365 Commercial Cloud. Operating expenses increased 9% and 8% in constant currency, driven by continued investment in AI, including R&D compute capacity, talent, and data to support product development across the portfolio. This quarter, growth was impacted by a low prior year comparable, particularly in sales and marketing and G&A expenses. Operating margins increased slightly year-over-year to 46%. Total company headcount declined year-over-year as we focus on building high-performing teams that operate with pace and agility.
在公司整体层面,汇率影响与指引大致相符。公司毛利率为 68%,同比下降,原因是对 AI 基础设施的持续投资和 AI 产品使用量的增长;这些投资的影响部分被持续的效率提升所抵消,尤其是在 Azure 和 M365 商业云中。营业费用增长 9%,按固定汇率计算增长 8%,主要由于对 AI 的持续投资,包括为支持整个产品组合开发的研发算力、人才和数据。本季度的增长受到上年同期基数较低的影响,尤其是销售和营销以及一般及行政费用。营业利润率同比小幅提高至 46%。由于我们专注于打造节奏快、反应敏捷的高绩效团队,公司总员工人数同比下降。
P02319:32
When adjusted for the impact from our investments in OpenAI, other income and expense was $961 million. Favorability was driven by gains on investments that were partially offset by losses on foreign currency remeasurement. Capital expenditures were $31.9 billion, down sequentially due to the normal variability from cloud infrastructure build-outs and the timing of delivery of finance leases. This quarter, roughly two-thirds of our CapEx was for short-lived assets, primarily GPUs and CPUs. The remaining spend was for long-lived assets that will support monetization over the next 15 years and beyond. This quarter, total finance leases were $4.7 billion and were primarily for large data center sites.
剔除对 OpenAI 投资的影响后,其他收入和费用为 9.61 亿美元。有利因素来自投资收益,部分被外币重估损失所抵消。资本开支为 319 亿美元,环比下降,原因是云基础设施建设的正常波动以及融资租赁的交付时间。本季度约三分之二的资本开支用于短寿命资产,主要是 GPU 和 CPU;其余支出用于长寿命资产,这些资产将在未来 15 年及更长时间里支撑变现。本季度融资租赁总额为 47 亿美元,主要用于大型数据中心站点。
P02420:18
Cash paid for PP&E was $30.9 billion, roughly in line with capital expenditures, as the impact from finance leases was partially offset by differences between the receipt of goods and payment. Cash flow from operations was $46.7 billion, up 26%, driven by strong cloud billings and collections, partially offset by an increase in operating lease payments. Free cash flow was $15.8 billion, reflecting higher capital expenditures. Finally, we returned $10.2 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. Now to our commercial results. Commercial bookings grew 7% when excluding the impact from OpenAI, driven by consistent execution in our core annuity sales motions. Bookings decreased 4% and 6% in constant currency when including Azure commitments from OpenAI.
购置 PP&E 的现金支出为 309 亿美元,与资本开支大致相当,因为融资租赁的影响被收货与付款时间差部分抵消。经营现金流为 467 亿美元,增长 26%,主要由于云业务强劲的开票和回款,部分被经营租赁付款的增加所抵消。自由现金流为 158 亿美元,反映了更高的资本开支。最后,我们通过股息和股票回购向股东返还了 102 亿美元。下面是商业业绩。剔除 OpenAI 的影响,商业订单增长 7%,得益于核心年金型销售的稳定执行。计入 OpenAI 的 Azure 承诺后,订单下降 4%,按固定汇率计算下降 6%。
P02521:10
Commercial remaining performance obligation grew 26%, in line with historic seasonality when excluding OpenAI. RPO increased to $627 billion and was up 99% year-over-year, with a weighted average duration of approximately 2.5 years when including OpenAI. Roughly 25% will be recognized in revenue in the next 12 months, up 39% year-over-year. The remaining portion recognized beyond the next 12 months increased 138%. Microsoft Cloud revenue was $54.5 billion and grew 29% and 25% in constant currency, reflecting strong demand across the Azure platform and our first-party AI applications and services. Microsoft Cloud gross margin percentage was slightly better than expected at 66% and down year-over-year due to continued investments in AI, partially offset by the ongoing efficiency gains noted earlier.
剔除 OpenAI,商业剩余履约义务增长 26%,与历史季节性一致。计入 OpenAI 后,RPO 增至 6270 亿美元,同比增长 99%,加权平均期限约 2.5 年。其中约 25% 将在未来 12 个月内确认为收入,同比增长 39%;在未来 12 个月之后确认的其余部分增长 138%。微软云收入为 545 亿美元,增长 29%,按固定汇率计算增长 25%,反映了 Azure 平台以及我们第一方 AI 应用和服务的强劲需求。微软云毛利率为 66%,略好于预期,但因对 AI 的持续投资而同比下降,部分被前面提到的持续效率提升所抵消。
P02622:08
Now to our segment results. Revenue from productivity and business processes was $35 billion and grew 17% and 13% in constant currency. M365 commercial cloud revenue increased 19% and 15% in constant currency, ahead of expectations. Strong execution and improving product quality drove accelerating M365 Copilot seat adds this quarter, with paid seats now over 20 million. ARPU growth was again led by both E5 and M365 Copilot. Paid M365 commercial seats grew 6% year over year, with installed base expansion across all customer segments, though primarily in our small and medium business and frontline worker offerings. M365 commercial products revenue increased 1% and decreased 3% in constant currency, down sequentially as Office 2024 transactional purchasing trends continued to normalize as expected. M365 consumer cloud revenue increased 33% and 29% in constant currency, again driven by ARPU growth.
下面是各分部业绩。生产力与业务流程分部收入为 350 亿美元,增长 17%,按固定汇率计算增长 13%。M365 商业云收入增长 19%,按固定汇率计算增长 15%,好于预期。强劲的执行和不断改善的产品质量推动本季度 M365 Copilot 新增席位加速,付费席位现已超过 2000 万。ARPU 增长再次由 E5 和 M365 Copilot 共同带动。M365 商业付费席位同比增长 6%,各客户群体的装机量都在扩大,但主要来自中小企业和一线员工产品。M365 商业产品收入增长 1%,按固定汇率计算下降 3%,环比放缓,因为 Office 2024 的交易性采购趋势如预期继续正常化。M365 消费云收入增长 33%,按固定汇率计算增长 29%,同样由 ARPU 增长推动。
P02723:12
M365 consumer subscriptions grew 7%. LinkedIn revenue increased 12% and 9% in constant currency, with growth across all lines of business. Dynamics 365 revenue increased 22% and 17% in constant currency, with continued share gains and growth across all workloads. Bookings growth was impacted by weaker renewals as customers balanced spend between the traditional per seat and the emerging seats plus consumption model. Segment gross margin dollars increased 18% and 13% in constant currency, and gross margin percentage increased slightly, again driven by efficiency gains in M365 commercial cloud that were partially offset by continued investments in AI, including the impact of growing adoption and usage of Copilot.
M365 消费订阅数增长 7%。LinkedIn 收入增长 12%,按固定汇率计算增长 9%,各业务线均有增长。Dynamics 365 收入增长 22%,按固定汇率计算增长 17%,持续获得份额,各类工作负载均有增长。由于客户在传统按席位模式与新兴的席位加用量模式之间平衡支出,续约偏弱影响了订单增长。分部毛利额增长 18%,按固定汇率计算增长 13%,毛利率略有上升,同样由 M365 商业云的效率提升推动,部分被对 AI 的持续投资(包括 Copilot 采用和使用量增长的影响)所抵消。
P02824:00
Against a low prior year comparable, operating expenses increased 11% and 9% in constant currency, driven by the shared R&D AI investments mentioned earlier, as well as higher Copilot advertising spend. Operating income increased 21% and 14% in constant currency, and operating margins increased year-over-year to 60%. Next, the Intelligent Cloud segment. Revenue was $34.7 billion and grew 30% and 28% in constant currency. In Azure and other cloud services, revenue grew 40% and 39% in constant currency against a prior year that included accelerating growth. Results were ahead of expectations as we delivered capacity earlier in the quarter, enabling increased consumption across both AI and non-AI services. Strong customer demand across workloads, customer segments, and geographic regions continues to exceed available capacity.
在上年同期基数较低的情况下,营业费用增长 11%,按固定汇率计算增长 9%,主要由于前面提到的共享研发 AI 投入以及更高的 Copilot 广告支出。营业利润增长 21%,按固定汇率计算增长 14%,营业利润率同比提高至 60%。接下来是智能云分部。收入为 347 亿美元,增长 30%,按固定汇率计算增长 28%。Azure 及其他云服务收入增长 40%,按固定汇率计算增长 39%,而上年同期本身就处于加速增长中。由于我们在季度内更早交付了产能,使 AI 和非 AI 服务的使用量都得以增加,业绩好于预期。各类工作负载、客户群体和地区的强劲客户需求继续超过可用产能。
P02924:57
In our on-premises server business, revenue increased slightly and decreased 3% in constant currency with ongoing customer shift to cloud offerings. Segment gross margin dollars increased 19% and 18% in constant currency. Gross margin percentage decreased year-over-year, driven by continued AI investment and increased GitHub Copilot usage, partially offset by ongoing efficiency gains in Azure. Operating expenses increased 9% and 7% in constant currency, driven by the shared R&D AI investment noted earlier. Operating income grew 24% and 23% in constant currency, and operating margins were 40%. Now to more personal computing. Revenue was $13.2 billion and declined 1% and 3% in constant currency. Windows OEM and devices revenue decreased 2% and 3% in constant currency.
在本地服务器业务中,由于客户持续向云产品迁移,收入小幅增长,按固定汇率计算下降 3%。分部毛利额增长 19%,按固定汇率计算增长 18%。毛利率同比下降,原因是对 AI 的持续投资以及 GitHub Copilot 使用量的增加,部分被 Azure 的持续效率提升所抵消。营业费用增长 9%,按固定汇率计算增长 7%,主要由于前面提到的共享研发 AI 投入。营业利润增长 24%,按固定汇率计算增长 23%,营业利润率为 40%。接下来是更多个人计算分部。收入为 132 亿美元,下降 1%,按固定汇率计算下降 3%。Windows OEM 及设备收入下降 2%,按固定汇率计算下降 3%。
P03025:49
Windows OEM increased slightly and was ahead of expectations as OEM and channel partners continued to build inventory given increasing memory prices. Search advertising revenue ex-TAC increased 12% and 9% in constant currency, with growth driven by higher volume and revenue per search across Edge and Bing. In gaming, revenue decreased 7% and 9% in constant currency. Xbox content and services revenue decreased 5% and 7% in constant currency against a prior year comparable that benefited from strong first-party content performance. Segment gross margin dollars increased 6% and 4% in constant currency, and gross margin percentage increased year over year, driven by sales mix shift to higher margin businesses.
由于内存价格上涨,OEM 和渠道合作伙伴继续增加库存,Windows OEM 收入小幅增长,好于预期。剔除流量获取成本后的搜索广告收入增长 12%,按固定汇率计算增长 9%,增长来自 Edge 和 Bing 搜索量和每次搜索收入的提高。游戏收入下降 7%,按固定汇率计算下降 9%。Xbox 内容与服务收入下降 5%,按固定汇率计算下降 7%,上年同期受益于第一方内容的强劲表现。分部毛利额增长 6%,按固定汇率计算增长 4%,毛利率同比上升,原因是销售结构向利润率更高的业务倾斜。
P03126:34
Against a low prior year comparable, operating expenses increased 7% and 6% in constant currency, driven by impairment and other related expenses in our gaming business, as well as continued investments in shared R&D mentioned earlier that benefits the entire portfolio. Operating income increased 4% and 1% in constant currency, and operating margins increased year over year to 28%. Now, moving to our Q4 outlook, which unless specifically noted otherwise, is on a U.S. dollar basis. Based on current rates, we expect FX to increase revenue growth by roughly 1 point in Productivity and Business Processes and More Personal Computing with no meaningful impact to Intelligent Cloud. Overall impact to total revenue is expected to be less than 1 point, and FX should increase COGS growth by roughly 1 point with no impact to operating expense growth. Starting with our commercial business.
在上年同期基数较低的情况下,营业费用增长 7%,按固定汇率计算增长 6%,主要由于游戏业务的减值及其他相关费用,以及前面提到的、惠及整个产品组合的共享研发持续投入。营业利润增长 4%,按固定汇率计算增长 1%,营业利润率同比提高至 28%。下面谈谈第四季度展望,除非特别说明,均以美元计。按当前汇率,我们预计汇率将使生产力与业务流程分部和更多个人计算分部的收入增速提高约 1 个百分点,对智能云分部没有实质影响。对总收入的影响预计不到 1 个百分点;汇率应使营业成本增速提高约 1 个百分点,对营业费用增速没有影响。先从商业业务说起。
P03227:28
In commercial bookings, when adjusted for the impact from OpenAI, we expect healthy growth on a growing expiry base with consistent execution in our core annuity sales motions against a significant prior year comparable. Microsoft Cloud gross margin percentage should be roughly 64%, down year-over-year, driven by continued investments in AI and increased GitHub Copilot usage. Just this week, we announced a business model transition in GitHub Copilot that will align pricing with usage and value that takes effect on June 1 of this year. Now to segment guidance. In Productivity and Business Processes, we expect revenue of $37 billion-$37.3 billion or growth of 12%-13%. In M365 commercial cloud, on an adjusted basis, we expect revenue growth to be between 15% and 16% in constant currency.
在商业订单方面,剔除 OpenAI 的影响后,凭借核心年金型销售的稳定执行,我们预计在不断增长的到期基数上、相对较高的上年同期基数下实现健康增长。微软云毛利率应约为 64%,同比下降,原因是对 AI 的持续投资以及 GitHub Copilot 使用量的增加。就在本周,我们宣布了 GitHub Copilot 的商业模式转变,使定价与用量和价值挂钩,将于今年 6 月 1 日生效。下面是分部指引。生产力与业务流程分部,我们预计收入为 370 亿至 373 亿美元,增长 12% 至 13%。M365 商业云方面,按调整口径,我们预计按固定汇率计算收入增长在 15% 至 16% 之间。
P03328:21
When normalized for the prior year comparable, that benefited from two points of in-period revenue recognition. On a reported basis, we expect revenue growth to be between 13% and 14% in constant currency. Building on the Copilot momentum we saw in Q3, we expect net paid seat adds to increase sequentially, which will drive continued ARPU growth. M365 commercial products revenue should grow in the mid-single digits against a prior year that benefited from higher than expected Office 2024 transactional purchasing. As a reminder, M365 commercial products includes components that can be variable due to in-period revenue recognition dynamics. M365 consumer cloud revenue growth should be in the low 20% range, down sequentially as we start to lap the benefit from last year's price increase. Growth will again be driven by ARPU and an increase in subscription volume.
调整口径是对上年同期因当期收入确认多出两个百分点的基数进行标准化处理。按报告口径,我们预计按固定汇率计算收入增长在 13% 至 14% 之间。在第三季度 Copilot 势头的基础上,我们预计净新增付费席位将环比增加,从而推动 ARPU 持续增长。M365 商业产品收入应增长中个位数百分比,而上年同期受益于高于预期的 Office 2024 交易性采购。提醒一下,M365 商业产品中包含因当期收入确认而可能波动的部分。M365 消费云收入增速应在 20% 出头,环比放缓,因为我们开始面对去年提价带来的高基数。增长将再次由 ARPU 和订阅量的增加推动。
P03429:14
For LinkedIn, we expect revenue growth of approximately 10%. In Dynamics 365, we expect revenue growth to be in the low double digits, down sequentially, with impact from a strong prior year comparable and the bookings trends noted earlier. For Intelligent Cloud, we expect revenue of $37.95 billion-$38.25 billion or growth of 27%-28%. In Azure, we continue to focus on accelerating the delivery of capacity and increasing fleet efficiencies, and therefore, we expect Q4 revenue growth to be between 39% and 40% in constant currency against a strong prior year comparable that included accelerating growth.
LinkedIn 方面,我们预计收入增长约 10%。Dynamics 365 方面,我们预计收入增长两位数的低段,环比放缓,受上年同期高基数以及前面提到的订单趋势影响。智能云分部,我们预计收入为 379.5 亿至 382.5 亿美元,增长 27% 至 28%。Azure 方面,我们继续专注于加快产能交付和提升设备效率,因此预计第四季度按固定汇率计算收入增长在 39% 至 40% 之间,而上年同期本身就包含加速增长,基数较高。
P03529:59
Broad and growing customer demand continues to exceed supply, and we continue to balance the incoming supply we can allocate here against our other high ROI priorities, first-party applications, R&D, and end-of-life server replacement. As a reminder, year-over-year Azure growth rates can vary quarter to quarter based on capacity, timing, and contract mix. In our on-premise server business, we expect revenue to decline in the mid-single digits with ongoing customer shift to cloud offerings. In more personal computing, we are lapping strong prior year comparables, navigating complex PC market dynamics impacted by memory prices and refocusing on delivering quality and value to consumers. Therefore, we expect revenue to be $11.75 billion-$12.25 billion.
广泛且不断增长的客户需求继续超过供给,我们继续在可分配给这里的新增供给与其他高投资回报的优先事项——第一方应用、研发以及到期服务器的更换——之间进行平衡。提醒一下,Azure 的同比增速会因产能、时间和合同组合的不同而在各季度之间波动。在本地服务器业务中,由于客户持续向云产品迁移,我们预计收入将下降中个位数百分比。在更多个人计算分部,我们面对上年同期的高基数,正在应对受内存价格影响的复杂 PC 市场形势,并重新聚焦于为消费者提供质量和价值。因此,我们预计收入为 117.5 亿至 122.5 亿美元。
P03630:48
Windows OEM revenue should decline in the high teens, with roughly 6 points of impact from a prior comparable that benefited from Windows 10 end of support, 6 points from inventory levels that we expect to come down through the quarter, and 6 points from a lower PC market as prices increase due to memory cost. The range of potential outcomes remains wider than normal. Therefore, Windows OEM and devices revenue should decline in the mid to high teens. Search advertising revenue ex-TAC growth should be in the high single digits, driven by revenue per search and volume, with continued share gains across Bing and Edge.
Windows OEM 收入应下降十几个百分点的高位,其中约 6 个百分点来自上年同期受益于 Windows 10 停止支持的高基数,6 个百分点来自我们预计将在季度内下降的库存水平,6 个百分点来自内存成本推高价格导致的 PC 市场走弱。可能结果的区间仍比平时更宽。因此,Windows OEM 及设备收入应下降十几个百分点的中高位。剔除流量获取成本后的搜索广告收入应实现高个位数百分比增长,由每次搜索收入和搜索量推动,Bing 和 Edge 的份额将继续提升。
P03731:23
In Xbox content and services, we expect revenue to decline in the low teens%, reflecting a prior comparable that benefited from strong first-party content as well as the recent price changes for Xbox Game Pass as we focus on delivering more value to gamers. Hardware revenue should decline year-over-year. Therefore, at the total company level, revenue should be between $86.7 billion and $87.8 billion, or growth of 13%-15%, with accelerating commercial growth partially offset by our consumer business. Our Q4 outlook for COGS and operating expenses includes roughly $900 million in one-time costs for the recently announced voluntary retirement program. Therefore, we expect COGS of $29.4 billion-$29.6 billion, or growth of 22%-23%, including roughly $350 million from the retirement program.
在 Xbox 内容与服务方面,我们预计收入将下降十几个百分点的低位,反映了上年同期受益于第一方内容强劲表现的基数,以及为给玩家提供更多价值而近期对 Xbox Game Pass 进行的价格调整。硬件收入应同比下降。因此,在公司整体层面,收入应在 867 亿至 878 亿美元之间,增长 13% 至 15%,加速的商业业务增长将部分被消费者业务所抵消。我们对第四季度营业成本和营业费用的展望中,包括与近期宣布的自愿退休计划相关的约 9 亿美元一次性成本。因此,我们预计营业成本为 294 亿至 296 亿美元,增长 22% 至 23%,其中包括退休计划带来的约 3.5 亿美元。
P03832:17
Operating expense of $19.3 billion-$19.4 billion, or growth of approximately 7%, including roughly $550 million from the retirement program. Even as we invested through the year in additional capacity to serve the growing AI platform, apps and services demand, and inclusive of these one-time costs, we expect full-year FY 2026 operating margins to be up about 1 point year-over-year. Excluding any impact from our investments in OpenAI, other income and expense is expected to be roughly -$100 million, as interest income will be more than offset by interest expense, which includes the interest payments related to data center finance leases. We expect our adjusted Q4 effective tax rate to be approximately 19%. Next, capital expenditures.
营业费用为 193 亿至 194 亿美元,增长约 7%,其中包括退休计划带来的约 5.5 亿美元。即便我们全年都在投资额外产能以满足不断增长的 AI 平台、应用和服务需求,并计入这些一次性成本,我们预计 2026 财年全年营业利润率仍将同比提高约 1 个百分点。剔除对 OpenAI 投资的任何影响,其他收入和费用预计约为负 1 亿美元,因为利息收入将被利息支出(包括与数据中心融资租赁相关的利息支付)完全抵消还有余。我们预计第四季度调整后有效税率约为 19%。接下来是资本开支。
P03933:09
We expect CapEx spend to increase to over $40 billion as we continue to bring more capacity online. The sequential increase includes roughly $5 billion from higher component pricing, as well as the impact from finance leases, which add variability given the full value is recorded in the period of lease commencement. We expect the mix of short-lived assets to remain similar to Q3. For calendar year 2026, we expect to invest roughly $190 billion in capital expenditures, which includes approximately $25 billion from the impact of higher component pricing. We remain confident in the return on these investments, given higher demand signals and increasing product usage, as well as the efficiencies we're driving across the platform.
随着我们继续上线更多产能,我们预计资本开支将增至 400 亿美元以上。环比增加的部分包括元器件涨价带来的约 50 亿美元,以及融资租赁的影响——由于租赁的全部价值在租赁开始当期入账,这会增加波动。我们预计短寿命资产的占比将与第三季度相近。对于 2026 自然年,我们预计资本开支投入约 1900 亿美元,其中约 250 亿美元来自元器件涨价的影响。鉴于更高的需求信号和不断增长的产品使用量,以及我们在整个平台上推动的效率提升,我们对这些投资的回报仍然充满信心。
P04033:55
Even with these additional investments and continued efforts to bring GPU, CPU, and storage capacity online faster, we expect to remain constrained at least through 2026. Despite these constraints and the continued need to balance incoming supply, we expect Azure growth to show modest acceleration in the second half of the calendar year compared with the first half. Now I'd like to share some closing thoughts as we look to next fiscal year. First, we continue to evolve how we operate to increase our pace and agility, and therefore, we expect head count will decrease year-over-year. Operating expense growth will be in the mid to high single digits, reflecting ongoing investments in R&D, inclusive of AI investment in compute, data, and talent to accelerate product innovation.
即便有这些额外投资,以及我们为更快上线 GPU、CPU 和存储容量所做的持续努力,我们预计至少在整个 2026 年都将处于受限状态。尽管存在这些约束、仍需持续平衡新增供给,我们预计 Azure 增速在自然年下半年将较上半年小幅加快。下面我想分享一些对下一财年的总结性想法。首先,我们将继续改进运营方式以提高速度和灵活性,因此预计员工人数将同比下降。营业费用增长将在中到高个位数百分比,反映对研发的持续投入,包括为加快产品创新而在算力、数据和人才上的 AI 投资。
P04134:44
Next, as a reminder, we will lap strong prior year comparables impacted by Windows 10 end of support, elevated OEM inventory levels, as well as increased Office and server transactional purchasing. Finally, we remain focused on delivering a platform that enables customers to build and run AI solutions and on driving innovation in our first-party AI applications and services. Therefore, we expect another year of double-digit revenue and operating income growth at FY 2027. In closing, we are committed to delivering innovation that helps customers create new business value as we enter the final quarter of our fiscal year. With that, let's go to Q&A, Jonathan.
其次,提醒一下,我们将面对受 Windows 10 停止支持、OEM 库存偏高以及 Office 和服务器交易性采购增加影响的上年同期高基数。最后,我们将继续专注于提供让客户能够构建和运行 AI 解决方案的平台,并推动第一方 AI 应用和服务的创新。因此,我们预计 2027 财年营收和营业利润又将实现两位数增长。总结一下,在进入本财年最后一个季度之际,我们致力于提供帮助客户创造新业务价值的创新。下面进入问答环节,Jonathan。
P04235:27
Jonathan NeilsonVP of Investor Relations
Thanks, Amy. We'll now move over to Q&A. Out of respect for others on the call, we request that participants please only ask one question. Operator, can you please repeat your instructions?
谢谢 Amy。现在进入问答环节。出于对其他参会者的尊重,请每位参与者只问一个问题。接线员,请重复一下提问方式。
问答环节
P04335:42
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, if you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad and a confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press star two if you would like to remove your question from the queue. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star keys. Our first question comes from the line of Keith Weiss with Morgan Stanley. Please proceed.
女士们、先生们,如需提问,请在电话键盘上按星号键加 1,提示音表示您的线路已进入提问队列。如需撤回提问,请按星号键加 2。使用免提设备的参与者,可能需要拿起听筒后再按星号键。第一个问题来自 Morgan Stanley 的 Keith Weiss。请提问。
P04436:11
Keith WeissHead of US Software Research, Morgan Stanley
Excellent. Thank you guys for taking the question, and congratulations on another really solid quarter. Those Microsoft 365 Copilot numbers are super impressive and I think way ahead of most people's expectations. I wanted to ask a broader question on demand. We've been talking about strong demand for a while. We see it in our CIO surveys, and you guys definitely express it in what you're seeing in your business. Maybe in the short term, Amy, you could talk to us about how that demand translates into commercial bookings and how that might be changing. You mentioned different contracting cycles between seats and consumption that may impact that, and then we also have to think about renewal bases.
很好,感谢回答问题,祝贺又一个非常扎实的季度。Microsoft 365 Copilot 的数据非常亮眼,我想远远超出了大多数人的预期。我想问一个关于需求的更宏观的问题。我们谈论强劲的需求已经有一段时间了,我们在 CIO 调研中看到了这一点,你们也在业务中明确表达了这一点。Amy,短期来看,能否谈谈这种需求如何转化为商业订单,以及这方面可能有什么变化?您提到席位和用量之间不同的签约周期可能会产生影响,我们还要考虑续约基数。
P04536:55
Longer term, maybe this opens it up to Satya, what is supporting this demand over time? Or said another way, who's paying for all of this? Because while we see excitement for Microsoft in our CIO survey, like, our overall IT spending expectations aren't increasing, and GDP growth isn't really increasing. At some point, like, how does this get paid for? Are you starting to see the indications of where those dollars are gonna come from? Thank you.
从长期来看,也许这个问题可以请 Satya 回答:是什么在长期支撑这种需求?换句话说,谁在为这一切买单?因为虽然我们在 CIO 调研中看到大家对微软很热情,但整体 IT 支出预期并没有增加,GDP 增长也没有真正加快。到了某个时候,这些钱从哪里来?你们是否开始看到这些资金来源的迹象?谢谢。
P04637:21
Satya NadellaChairman and CEO
You wanna start, Amy?
Amy,你想先说吗?
P04737:24
Amy HoodCFO
Well, why don't I start with the first half of your question, Keith, around, you know, how do some of these models impact bookings? I think it's really important, you're right, we have the normal cyclical things that happen with bookings. It's the expiration base, or maybe large multi-year Azure commitments that get signed, and that stuff has always had some volatility to it. I think if you take a step back, which is I think the broader question you're asking, and obviously I'll let Satya talk to it too, you're really thinking through as we go through using a model that's been historically thought of as a per-seat business, and suddenly if you think about getting work done and being more productive, it's thinking about being a seat or a worker plus an agent.
Keith,我先回答你问题的前一半,也就是这些模式如何影响订单。我认为这非常重要。你说得对,订单会有正常的周期性变化:到期基数,或者签下的大额多年期 Azure 承诺,这些一直都有一定的波动性。如果退一步看——我想这正是你问的更宏观的问题,当然我也会请 Satya 来谈——你真正需要思考的是:我们正在使用一种历来被视为按席位收费的业务模式,而当你考虑把工作完成、提高生产率时,突然之间它变成了一个席位或一名员工加上一个智能体。
P04838:23
When I think about that model, I start to think about it as a license business plus a consumption business, and really applying far more broadly than I think people have thought about that. It starts to mean that over time bookings will actually also look a little different. It'll still have that per-seat license logic, but it'll also have a meter, just like you see in Azure, and it may not all flow through bookings in the same way. You'll just bill for usage, and if that usage has great value to customers, and I'll let Satya talk a little bit about this, then you'll keep spinning and you'll keep using those agents if they're adding direct value or growth to your business.
当我思考这种模式时,我开始把它看作许可业务加上用量业务,而且其适用范围远比人们想象的要广。这开始意味着,随着时间推移,订单看起来也会有些不同。它仍然会有按席位许可的逻辑,但也会有一个计量表,就像你在 Azure 中看到的那样,而且未必全部以同样方式体现在订单中。你只是按用量计费;如果这些用量对客户有很大价值——我会请 Satya 谈一谈——那么只要这些智能体为你的业务带来直接价值或增长,你就会持续运行、持续使用它们。
P04939:08
I think it's probably healthy to sort of start to think about that transition in a broader way. While you may not see it in the short term in bookings, I think if I were to frame how to think about the opportunity, I would probably think about it more in that light.
我认为开始从更宏观的角度思考这一转变可能是健康的。虽然短期内你可能在订单中看不到它,但如果要我来界定如何看待这个机会,我可能更会从这个角度去看。
P05039:26
Satya NadellaChairman and CEO
Yeah. I think Amy captured it. I think the basic transformation of, I'll say, any per-user business of ours, whether it's productivity, coding, security, will become a per-user and usage business. That's the best way to think about. It's obviously already happening with coding. That's where you see it already perhaps at scale. Some of the business model changes even we made this quarter speak to that. But it also speaks, I think, to the intensity of usage, right? Because where these dollars gonna come from? At the end of the day, it'll come from some eval and outcome that a business has, where these agents that are working on behalf of users or with users has created value. That's sort of where it starts.
是的,我认为 Amy 总结得很到位。我认为根本性的转变是,我们任何按用户收费的业务,无论是生产力、编程还是安全,都将变成按用户加按用量的业务。这是最好的理解方式。在编程领域这显然已经在发生,也许你已经能看到它的规模。我们本季度做出的一些商业模式调整也说明了这一点。但我认为这也说明了使用强度,对吧?因为这些钱从哪里来?归根结底,它来自企业的某种评测和成果,即代表用户或与用户一起工作的智能体创造了价值。这就是起点。
P05140:17
Whether it's customer service, whether it's individual productivity, team productivity, a business process, some cost or is either decreasing because of the use of agents, or some revenue is increasing because of agents because it was able to compress these workflows. That's what you broadly start seeing, right? Even when people talk about Copilot, it's obviously they use chat with reasoning, they use Cowork, they use agent mode, inside a Word, Excel, PowerPoint, but it's all being done in the context of some task trajectory. When they start seeing that task trajectory is compressing the workflow, improving revenue, decreasing costs, that is what's driving usage. It may not be, by the way, pure seat coverage type of motions like in the past.
无论是客户服务、个人生产力、团队生产力还是某个业务流程,要么因为使用智能体而降低了某些成本,要么因为智能体压缩了工作流程而增加了某些收入。这就是你开始普遍看到的情况,对吧?即使在人们谈论 Copilot 时,他们显然在使用带推理的聊天、使用 Cowork、在 Word、Excel、PowerPoint 中使用智能体模式,但这一切都是在某个任务轨迹的背景下进行的。当他们开始看到这个任务轨迹在压缩工作流程、提高收入、降低成本时,这就是推动使用量的原因。顺便说一句,这可能不再像过去那样是单纯追求席位覆盖的推进方式。
P05241:06
This is more about getting intense users and intense usage, and that's what we're focused on.
这更多是关于获得高强度用户和高强度使用,这正是我们关注的重点。
P05341:14
Amy HoodCFO
Keith, maybe just to take a quick second, just a big thank you to you. It's been a real privilege to work with you, over many, many quarters. Just to say we've really appreciated your coverage over this time, and congratulations. I think this is our last earnings quarter with you.
Keith,也许我花一点时间,非常感谢你。很荣幸在这么多个季度里与你共事。我们真的非常感谢你这段时间的研究覆盖,也祝贺你。我想这是我们和你一起的最后一个财报季了。
P05441:29
Satya NadellaChairman and CEO
Thank you so much, Keith.
非常感谢你,Keith。
P05541:31
Jonathan NeilsonVP of Investor Relations
Thank you so much.
非常感谢。
P05641:31
Satya NadellaChairman and CEO
It's just been fantastic with you.
和你合作真的非常愉快。
P05741:34
Jonathan NeilsonVP of Investor Relations
Thank you.
谢谢。
P05841:34
Keith WeissHead of US Software Research, Morgan Stanley
I really appreciate it.
我真的很感激。
P05941:35
Jonathan NeilsonVP of Investor Relations
Thanks, Keith.
谢谢 Keith。
P06041:35
Keith WeissHead of US Software Research, Morgan Stanley
Thank you so much.
非常感谢。
P06141:37
Jonathan NeilsonVP of Investor Relations
Yeah. Thank you. Operator, next question, please.
好的,谢谢。接线员,请接下一个问题。
P06241:41
Operator
The next question comes from the line of Karl Keirstad with UBS. Please proceed.
下一个问题来自 UBS 的 Karl Keirstead。请提问。
P06341:46
Karl KeirsteadManaging Director of Software Equity Research, UBS
Okay. Great. Thank you. Maybe, Amy, could you elaborate a little bit on the CapEx guidance you just provided? Obviously it requires a fairly material pickup in CapEx in the second half of the calendar year, maybe to the tune of $120 billion. I'm just curious your confidence in working through the, you know, physical component, constraints to hit that number. Does it involve the greater use of partners? How are you thinking about allocating that increased capacity between third party and first party? Do you have a general framework you'd advise us to keep in mind? Thank you.
好的,很好,谢谢。Amy,能否进一步说明您刚才给出的资本开支指引?显然这要求自然年下半年的资本开支大幅提升,可能达到 1200 亿美元左右。我想知道您有多大信心克服实物部件的约束来达到这个数字?这是否需要更多地利用合作伙伴?你们如何考虑在第三方和第一方之间分配新增产能?有没有一个大致的框架可以供我们参考?谢谢。
P06442:23
Amy HoodCFO
Sure. Thanks. Thanks, Karl. No, I actually feel quite good about our ability to work through the physical sort of limitations, I think of the industrial logic of the supply chain, to be able to put that, both, you know, some of that, as we've talked about, is getting capacity online, but a lot of that is far more short-term in nature, being able to get CPUs, GPUs, storage, put in place, to be able to, you know, start to support even better the demand signals we've been seeing. Tried to give some help on part of that being price. I think that just helps give you a sense on volumes. Obviously it leans more to short-term assets when you see that type of impact of price on the number.
当然,谢谢 Karl。我其实对我们克服实物限制的能力感觉相当好——我把它理解为供应链的工业逻辑——正如我们谈过的,其中一部分是让产能上线,但很多其实是短期性质的:拿到 CPU、GPU 和存储并部署到位,从而开始更好地支持我们一直看到的需求信号。我试着说明了其中一部分是价格因素,我想这能帮助你对数量有个概念。显然,当价格对这个数字有这种程度的影响时,它更偏向短期资产。
P06543:11
I would also say in terms of a sense of allocation, you should assume, you know, we talked a little bit about what you were seeing in Azure, you know, looking for 39 to 40 in constant currency in Q4 means that we're, you know, able to use some efficiencies to make sure we're able to meet demand as we can best do that in a balanced way across Azure. Our Copilot usage, which I think you've seen, in Q3, has really been on a different trajectory than we saw it up to this point. That applies across coding, it applies across productivity, and I have some confidence it's also gonna apply across security.
至于分配,你可以这样理解:我们谈到了你在 Azure 中看到的情况,第四季度按固定汇率计算预计 39 到 40 的增速,意味着我们能够利用一些效率提升,以在 Azure 中尽可能平衡地满足需求。我想大家也看到了,我们的 Copilot 使用量在第三季度确实走上了与此前不同的轨道。这适用于编程,适用于生产力,我也有信心它同样会适用于安全。
P06643:53
If you think about talking about some acceleration, into what I would call the first half of the first half of FY 2027, the second half of the calendar year, it means we're getting some insights into our abilities to increasingly put pressure on efficiencies, being able to speed up the deliveries into our data centers and make that what I would call revenue-ready as quickly as we can. I would expect, you know, the pressure between first-party usage and being able to meet Azure demand will persist, as I said, but we're doing our best to be able to get things in as quickly as we can and hence the CapEx number that we see in the second half of the year.
如果说要在我所说的 2027 财年上半年的前半段、也就是自然年下半年出现一定加速,这意味着我们正在了解自己在提升效率、加快向数据中心交付并尽快使其达到我所说的“可产生收入”状态方面的能力。我预计,正如我所说,第一方使用与满足 Azure 需求之间的压力将持续存在,但我们正尽最大努力尽快把东西部署到位,这就是你在下半年看到的资本开支数字的原因。
P06744:37
Karl KeirsteadManaging Director of Software Equity Research, UBS
Okay. Terrific. Thank you.
好的,太好了,谢谢。
P06844:41
Jonathan NeilsonVP of Investor Relations
Thanks, Karl. Operator, next question, please.
谢谢 Karl。接线员,请接下一个问题。
P06944:45
Operator
The next question comes from the line of Brent Thill with Jefferies. Please proceed.
下一个问题来自 Jefferies 的 Brent Thill。请提问。
P07044:51
Brent ThillTech Sector Leader of Software and Internet Research, Jefferies
Thanks, Amy. One of the big pushbacks we all get is that AI is gonna be really expensive. Yet you, Google, and Amazon are showing higher margins tonight as you report. What are investors missing, and why is AI a potential better margin for the industry over time?
谢谢 Amy。我们大家都会遇到的一个主要反对意见是:AI 会非常昂贵。然而今晚你们、谷歌和亚马逊公布的业绩都显示了更高的利润率。投资者忽略了什么?为什么从长期看 AI 可能为行业带来更好的利润率?
P07145:13
Amy HoodCFO
Thanks, Brent. You know, I think, you know, we've been talking about sort of where this AI business of ours has been in the cycle compared to even the cycle we saw with the cloud, which now seems very long ago, on how margins were actually better, and they've remained better in our AI business versus where we saw in the cloud transition looking back. I do feel like what we've been really focused on is making sure that the business models reflect how these applications are both getting built and the value that they're bringing. When you think about that type of value, it tends to be captured more in consumption and usage-based pricing models.
谢谢 Brent。我们一直在谈的是,我们的 AI 业务目前处在周期的什么位置,甚至可以对比我们在云业务上经历过的周期——现在看来那已经是很久以前的事了:回头看,AI 业务的利润率实际上比云转型时更好,而且一直保持得更好。我确实觉得,我们一直真正关注的是确保商业模式能够反映这些应用的构建方式以及它们带来的价值。说到这类价值,它往往更多地通过按用量和按使用计费的定价模式来获取。
P07246:00
I think that's something that's probably been a little underappreciated as we look in terms of margins going forward. I also think it's been important to us to make sure we leverage the IP we have. The IP we get from our partnerships is obviously free to us for a long time, so we're able to take that and apply it and to benefit our margins in a healthy way. You've also seen us work hard on the first-party hardware stack, being able to make sure we can take margins out of the infra stack as well. Then, of course, just the efficiency work. We've really been in an accelerated phase, as you know, of trying to get as much capacity as we can get into production.
我认为在展望未来利润率时,这一点可能有些被低估了。我还认为,对我们来说,确保充分利用我们拥有的知识产权非常重要。我们从合作中获得的知识产权在很长时间内对我们是免费的,所以我们能够把它拿来应用,以健康的方式提升利润率。大家也看到我们在第一方硬件技术栈上下了很大功夫,确保也能从基础设施技术栈中挖掘利润率。当然还有效率工作。大家知道,我们一直处于加速阶段,努力让尽可能多的产能投入生产。
P07346:48
You know, when you go through that, you also then start to focus on the efficiency work. That's efficiency work on the hardware side as well as efficiency work on the software side to be able to deliver these types of margins. I do believe that one of the real focuses that we've gotta all have is that, and this really dates back to the question that Keith Weiss asked in the beginning, which is that, when you move to usage-based models, you have to make sure you're delivering incredibly high value to customers. What we need to do is make sure the focus starts with customer usage that creates value. If that creates value and positive output, the TAM expansion here and the ROI will be very good.
在这个过程中,你也会开始关注效率工作,包括硬件方面的效率工作和软件方面的效率工作,从而实现这样的利润率。我确实认为,我们所有人都必须真正关注的一点——这也要追溯到 Keith Weiss 一开始问的问题——是当你转向按用量计费的模式时,必须确保为客户提供极高的价值。我们需要做的,是确保关注点从能够创造价值的客户使用开始。如果它创造了价值和正向产出,这里的总潜在市场扩张和投资回报都会非常好。
P07447:32
Jonathan NeilsonVP of Investor Relations
Thanks, Brent. Operator, the next question, please.
谢谢 Brent。接线员,请接下一个问题。
P07547:36
Operator
The next question comes from the line of Mark Moerdler with Bernstein Research. Please proceed.
下一个问题来自 Bernstein Research 的 Mark Moerdler。请提问。
P07647:43
Mark MoerdlerSenior Research Analyst, Bernstein Research
Thank you very much for taking my question, and congratulations on the quarter you delivered and the rate of growth and some of the commentary you've made on guidance, et cetera. What I'd like to drill in a little bit is on this whole question of the CapEx and the spending that you're making. Obviously, the commercial cloud is growing fast. Azure is growing fast. AI is growing even faster within your overall business. There's a bit of a disconnect that makes investors a bit nervous between how fast they're seeing CapEx growing and how fast they're seeing revenue growing.
非常感谢回答我的问题,祝贺你们本季度的业绩、增长速度以及在指引等方面的一些表述。我想深入问一下资本开支和你们的投入这个大问题。显然商业云增长很快,Azure 增长很快,AI 在你们整体业务中增长得更快。但投资者看到的资本开支增速与收入增速之间存在一些脱节,这让他们有点紧张。
P07748:26
Can you give some color about how the timing works out or, you know, how much needs to be spent on replacement of equipment or first party in order to build that confidence that as we look toward the strong spending on CapEx, that the core business will continue to be very, very healthy, and that the margins will be good. Thank you.
能否谈谈时间上是如何对应的,或者需要在设备更换或第一方上投入多少,才能建立这样的信心:在看到资本开支大幅增加时,核心业务仍将非常非常健康,利润率也会很好?谢谢。
P07848:52
Amy HoodCFO
Thanks, Mark. Let me maybe start with Azure, which, given its size and its growth rates, where we've talked about acceleration from where we are, which is the guide of 39%-40% into a bigger number, in the second half of the calendar year. When you start to see that type of growth rate on the size of the business we have, the amount of spend being done on short-term assets, which is the thing that correlates with revenue as opposed to these, you know, the third of that number-ish, that's going into 15-year assets or some lumpy timing from lease contracts that can kind of get confusing.
谢谢 Mark。我先从 Azure 说起。鉴于它的规模和增速——我们谈到会从现在的水平加速,即从 39% 至 40% 的指引在自然年下半年提升到更高的数字——当你在我们这样规模的业务上看到这样的增速时,投在短期资产上的支出才是与收入相关的部分,而不是那大约三分之一投向 15 年期资产或来自租赁合同、时间上可能比较集中的部分,后者可能会让人有些困惑。
P07949:32
You know, I think in so many ways, this just reminds us of the last cycle and when the TAM is so expansive and when shortages are generally, I think growing, seems to be the sentiment between supply and demand. It just gives you a lot of confidence in the ROI on certainly and starting with the platform side. What you're really asking is whether, as we see these usage plus consumption models emerge at the app and services layer, are we starting to see the benefits of that? I think, you know, if you look past you know, the last quarter, I think we saw some acceleration, which I felt good about in the M365 commercial cloud number this quarter. We're guiding for that to be better again in Q4.
在很多方面,这让我们想起上一个周期:当总潜在市场如此广阔,而且供需之间的短缺似乎普遍在扩大时,这确实让你对投资回报很有信心,当然首先是平台方面。你真正问的是,随着这些“用户加用量”的模式在应用和服务层出现,我们是否开始看到它的好处?我认为,如果看过去这个季度,我们在本季度 M365 商业云的数字中看到了一些加速,我对此感觉不错。我们的指引是第四季度会再好一些。
P08050:21
I think that's where you're starting to see, right? I think the thing that investors have been asking, and Mark you're asking about, is when we'll start to see that show up in revenue growth. I think that's the first place you'd point to. We can also point to it, and I think you'll start to see it in GitHub, right, where you see revenue growth rates and usage consumption models result in acceleration on the top line. Then, you know, in general, I think you'll continue to see that, right?
我认为这正是你开始看到的地方,对吧?我认为投资者一直在问、Mark 你也在问的,是我们什么时候会开始看到它体现在收入增长上。我认为这是你可以首先指向的地方。我们也可以指向 GitHub,你会开始在那里看到它,对吧?你会看到收入增速和按用量计费的模式带来营收的加速。总的来说,我认为你会持续看到这一点,对吧?
P08150:49
When you think about, you know, spending that amount of capital, putting it into production, seeing some delay before it turns into revenue ready, having the book of business, you know, I think it's over $600 billion of revenue that we still need to deliver, and that's before we're starting to see the acceleration in seats that we're seeing on Copilot. I do feel very good about, frankly, that number. Our real focus will be how much of that we can pull in as fast as we can.
当你考虑投入这么多资本、把它投入生产、在其达到可产生收入状态之前有一些延迟,同时拥有这样的业务储备——我想我们还有超过 6000 亿美元的收入需要交付,而这还是在我们看到 Copilot 席位加速之前——坦白说,我对这个数字感觉非常好。我们真正的重点将是能多快地把其中多少提前实现。
P08251:19
I just wanna be transparent that when you have revenue that's sitting there that can be grown faster or efficiencies, the focus needs to be on doing that and landing this CapEx as quickly as we can and converting it to revenue as quickly as we can.
我只是想坦率地说,当有收入摆在那里,可以通过更快的增长或效率提升来实现时,重点就必须放在这上面:尽快落地这些资本开支,并尽快把它转化为收入。
P08351:36
Satya NadellaChairman and CEO
I mean, I would just add one point here, which is, I think at some level, one of the things that we have learned even in the last, whatever, two years or so in AI and also built more conviction and confidence on is, where is the TAM and the category economics of the TAM. This, I mean, it's fascinating that here we are in 2026 and the most exciting things are plug-ins in Word or Excel or CLIs in coding. When you see that means we have a structural position in knowledge work, coding, security, which are the big TAMs. You couple that with the right business model, which is what Amy was referencing multiple times, which is user plus usage.
我只想补充一点。我认为在某种程度上,过去两年左右我们在 AI 上学到、并建立了更多信念和信心的一件事,是总潜在市场在哪里,以及这些市场的品类经济性。我的意思是,很有意思,到了 2026 年,最令人兴奋的东西竟然是 Word 或 Excel 里的插件,或者编程中的命令行工具。你会看到,这意味着我们在知识工作、编程、安全这几个大市场中拥有结构性的地位。再加上正确的商业模式,也就是 Amy 多次提到的“用户加用量”。
P08452:27
You take even the book of business we have, that sort of is the through line. If anything, we want to make sure we are getting the CapEx to get the capacity in time for those increases in usage, which I think is going to be very, very key. You gotta remember the model capabilities are exponential. You know, if you think about even Agent mode in Excel, it sort of kinda didn't work until it started working, and that's just because the models showed up. You have to be ready for those opportunities.
即使看我们已有的业务储备,这也是一条主线。如果说有什么的话,我们希望确保资本开支能让产能及时到位,以迎接使用量的增长,我认为这将非常非常关键。你必须记住,模型能力是指数级增长的。即使看 Excel 中的智能体模式,它在开始奏效之前基本上是不行的,而它开始奏效只是因为模型到位了。你必须为这些机会做好准备。
P08553:04
Mark MoerdlerSenior Research Analyst, Bernstein Research
That's extremely helpful. I really do appreciate. Again, congratulations on the quarter.
这非常有帮助,我真的很感激。再次祝贺本季度的业绩。
P08653:10
Jonathan NeilsonVP of Investor Relations
Thanks, Mark. Operator, next question, please.
谢谢 Mark。接线员,请接下一个问题。
P08753:14
Operator
The next question comes from the line of Gabriela Borges with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed.
下一个问题来自 Goldman Sachs 的 Gabriela Borges。请提问。
P08853:21
Gabriela BorgesHead of US Software Research, Goldman Sachs
Hi, good afternoon. Thank you. Satya, I would love to hear some of your reflections on Copilot, given the technical and commercial milestones that Microsoft just hit in the last three months. Maybe share with us a little on your learnings from Copilot adoption to date. What do you think is working? What's not working? How is that now informing your E7 strategy and the Copilot Cowork strategy? Thanks so much.
嗨,下午好,谢谢。Satya,鉴于微软在过去三个月刚刚达成的技术和商业里程碑,我很想听听您对 Copilot 的一些思考。能否和我们分享一下迄今从 Copilot 普及中学到的东西?您认为哪些做法有效,哪些无效?这些经验现在如何影响你们的 E7 策略和 Copilot Cowork 策略?非常感谢。
P08953:45
Satya NadellaChairman and CEO
You know, thank you for the question. I think the way to perhaps think about even Copilot is the Microsoft 365 Copilot and knowledge work. In some sense, it's pattern. We've learned a lot, as I said, even from coding. If you sort of focus it on M365 Copilot, the first thing is to think about even the form factor and the shape of the product and how it's evolved, right? There's chat now with reasoning over Work IQ. That's sort of one form factor. There is all the agents like Researcher and analyst that you use within chat or even custom agents that our customers are building. And then on top of that, you now have this edit mode, right?
谢谢这个问题。我认为理解 Copilot 的方式,也许就是看 Microsoft 365 Copilot 与知识工作,在某种意义上这是一种模式。正如我所说,我们甚至从编程中学到了很多。如果聚焦在 M365 Copilot 上,首先要思考的是产品的形态和形状以及它是如何演进的,对吧?现在有基于 Work IQ 推理的聊天,这是一种形态;还有所有在聊天中使用的智能体,比如 Researcher 和 Analyst,甚至客户自己构建的定制智能体;在此之上,现在还有编辑模式,对吧?
P09054:31
If you think about a typical trajectory or a session in Copilot, it starts with chat. You ask some questions, you get some insights. You ask it to even generate an artifact. You open that artifact in Word, Excel, PowerPoint. You further refine it. In other words, you continue the conversation. We now have even a complete new form factor where you essentially delegate the task, right? You're not even interactively working, but you're delegating the task with Cowork. These are all the various form factors. One of the most interesting things to keep in mind is the usage of this is at the same level as Outlook. This is not even to the previous question, are people using it, finding it useful?
如果你想想 Copilot 中一个典型的使用轨迹或会话:它从聊天开始,你问一些问题,得到一些洞察,甚至让它生成一个产出物;你在 Word、Excel、PowerPoint 中打开这个产出物,进一步完善它,换句话说,你继续这个对话。我们现在甚至有一种全新的形态,你基本上是把任务委派出去,对吧?你甚至不是在交互式地工作,而是用 Cowork 委派任务。这些都是不同的形态。需要记住的最有意思的一点是,它的使用量与 Outlook 处于同一水平。这甚至已经不是前面那个问题——人们有没有在用、觉得它有没有用。
P09155:15
I mean, this is like a daily habit of intense usage. The other thing that is important when you think about what makes these form factors useful is intelligence, and the intelligence is a function of two things. It's an intelligence of having multiple models coupled to context. That's the, you know, the meetings, the documents, the emails, the Teams. I mean, all of that SharePoint data, all of that rich, by the way, constantly updated, right? So this is not some static database. It's the most important database in any company that is constantly changing every second. So that's the context, the models brought together with a harness that's multi-model.
我的意思是,这就像是一种高强度使用的日常习惯。在思考是什么让这些形态有用时,另一个重要的东西是智能,而智能取决于两件事:多个模型与上下文的结合。上下文就是会议、文档、邮件、Teams,所有那些 SharePoint 数据,所有这些丰富的、而且顺便说一句是持续更新的数据,对吧?所以它不是某个静态数据库,而是任何公司中最重要的、每一秒都在变化的数据库。这就是上下文,再加上一个多模型的运行框架把模型整合起来。
P09256:00
This is essentially the same thing we do in GitHub, whether we do it in M365, we do this in security, which is our goal is to decouple the harness from the models, and then have the context richness show through because customers are going to use multiple models. In fact, if you look at Critique or Council, that's a great example, or Rubber Duck and GitHub Copilot. These are good examples of why you want to. Or even in Excel, you know, I generate using Opus, and I check with Codex. That's the type of things that you want users to have access to. So that's really the. Then couple that with the business model of user usage plus user pricing.
这基本上就是我们在 GitHub 中做的事情,无论是在 M365 中,还是在安全领域,我们的目标都是把运行框架与模型解耦,然后让上下文的丰富性发挥作用,因为客户会使用多个模型。事实上,看看 Critique 或 Council,这是很好的例子,或者 GitHub Copilot 中的 Rubber Duck。这些都是很好的例子,说明你为什么需要这样做。甚至在 Excel 中,我用 Opus 生成,再用 Codex 检查。这就是你希望用户能够使用的东西。然后再结合按用户加按用量定价的商业模式。
P09356:44
I feel like that's what's happening, and we are seeing that, all play out.
我觉得这就是正在发生的事情,我们也看到这一切正在展开。
P09456:53
Gabriela BorgesHead of US Software Research, Goldman Sachs已校正
Thank you very much.
非常感谢。
P09556:53
Jonathan NeilsonVP of Investor Relations已校正
Thanks, Gabriela. Operator, next question, please.
谢谢 Gabriela。接线员,请接下一个问题。
P09656:58
Operator
The next question comes from the line of Kirk Materne with Evercore ISI. Please proceed.
下一个问题来自 Evercore ISI 的 Kirk Materne。请提问。
P09757:03
Kirk MaterneSenior Managing Director, Evercore ISI
Yes, thanks very much, and thanks for taking the question. Amy, I was wondering, can you just talk a little bit about the change in the OpenAI agreement, if there's anything we should be aware of from a modeling perspective or from a financial perspective that would change today versus where we were maybe a couple weeks ago? I guess, Satya, for you know, it seems like an opportunity for you guys to, you know, continue to diversify from a model perspective. You know, any other takeaways we should be thinking in terms of, you know, where you guys landed with OpenAI and this new framework? Thanks.
好的,非常感谢回答问题。Amy,能否谈谈 OpenAI 协议的变化?从建模或财务角度看,与几周前相比,有没有什么我们应该注意的、会改变今天判断的地方?Satya,对你们来说,这似乎是在模型方面继续多元化的一个机会。就你们与 OpenAI 达成的结果和这个新框架而言,还有什么其他要点我们应该考虑?谢谢。
P09857:33
Satya NadellaChairman and CEO
Yeah, maybe I'll start. I mean, overall, we feel good about our partnership with OpenAI. I'm always very focused on any partnership on ensuring that there's a win-win construct at all times. I mean, that's how you can remain good partners. In this case, it starts with, quite frankly, IP. Amy referenced this. We have a frontier model, royalty-free, with all the IP rights that we will have access to all the way till 2032, and we fully plan to exploit it. There are examples I talked about earlier in my remarks, and we're thankful for that, and that's sort of one part of the agreement. The second part, of course, is them as a customer of ours.
好的,我先说。总体而言,我们对与 OpenAI 的合作感觉良好。在任何合作中,我始终非常注重确保任何时候都是双赢的结构,这样才能一直是好的合作伙伴。在这件事上,坦白说首先是知识产权,Amy 也提到了。我们拥有一个免版税的前沿模型,以及我们可以一直使用到 2032 年的全部知识产权,我们完全打算充分利用它。我在前面的发言中谈到了一些例子,我们对此心存感激,这是协议的一部分。第二部分当然是他们作为我们的客户。
P09958:20
They're a large customer of ours, not just on the AI accelerator side, but also on all the other compute side, and so we want to serve them well. Of course, we have our equity. Overall, I think the construct, as they have grown and we have grown, and our customers also have different expectations in terms of their model diversity, so therefore, we have all evolved the partnership. I feel very good about where we are.
他们是我们的大客户,不仅在 AI 加速器方面,在所有其他算力方面也是,所以我们希望服务好他们。当然,我们还持有他们的股权。总体而言,随着他们和我们都在成长,我们的客户在模型多样性上也有了不同的期望,因此我们都推动了合作关系的演进。我对我们目前的状况感觉非常好。
P10058:51
Amy HoodCFO
Yeah, I think the only maybe two things to keep in mind, I would say, is having the revenue share exist through 2030, and the predictability of that is a real positive for us. And then as you point out, that Satya pointed out, the IP, thinking about that as royalty-free, with the elimination of our rev share to them.
是的,我认为可能只需要记住两点:一是收入分成持续到 2030 年,其可预测性对我们是一个真正的利好;二是正如你指出的、也是 Satya 指出的,知识产权是免版税的,同时我们取消了向他们支付的收入分成。
P10159:16
Kirk MaterneSenior Managing Director, Evercore ISI
Thank you all.
谢谢各位。
P10259:19
Jonathan NeilsonVP of Investor Relations已校正
Thanks, Kirk. Operator, we have time for one last question.
谢谢 Kirk。接线员,我们还有时间回答最后一个问题。
P10359:23
Operator
The last question will come from the line of Rishi Jaluria with RBC Capital Markets. Please proceed.
最后一个问题来自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Rishi Jaluria。请提问。
P10459:30
Rishi JaluriaSoftware Analyst, RBC Capital Markets
Oh, wonderful. Hey, Satya. Hey, Amy. Thanks so much for squeezing me in. I wanted to go back to the discussion we've been having today on seat-based models and consumption, and maybe kind of the philosophy for how this changes over time. Look, in complete agreement with what you're seeing out there and totally makes sense. Maybe I wanna drill into, you know, you announced E7, which will come out. That is predominantly seat-based with some consumption components, so you're doubling down on that seat element. And it seems increasingly customers still want the predictability of seat-based models, as we've seen with all the kind of usage issues that the companies have run into as AI has kind of gone out of control. Can you maybe understand how to bring all these pieces together?
哦,太好了。嗨 Satya,嗨 Amy,非常感谢挤出时间回答我的问题。我想回到今天一直在讨论的按席位模式与按用量模式,以及这种模式随时间变化的思路。首先,我完全认同你们看到的情况,这完全说得通。我想深入问的是,你们宣布了即将推出的 E7,它主要是按席位收费、带一些用量组件,所以你们是在加码席位这一部分。而且看起来客户越来越希望保留按席位模式的可预测性,因为随着 AI 有点失控,很多公司都遇到了各种用量问题。能否帮我们理解如何把这些部分结合起来?
P1051:00:13
You know, how to maintain predictability within the customer base while increasingly growing consumption? Maybe, you know, if we were to fast-forward 3-5 years in the future, how should we be thinking about that, what that mix of consumption versus traditional seat-based looks like? Thanks so much.
也就是说,如何在不断增加用量的同时保持客户群的可预测性?如果快进到未来 3 到 5 年,我们应该如何看待用量模式与传统按席位模式的组合?非常感谢。
P1061:00:32
Satya NadellaChairman and CEO
Yeah, I mean, at a high level, and Amy should add to it, but I think you said it, which is customers want predictability, especially for budgets and procurement. The seat-based pricing is just entitlement to some consumption right. That's, I think, the way to think about it, which is, there is some base usage rights that get bundled in or packaged into seats. It's a convenient way for people to buy some, you know, essentially consumption packs that happen to be assigned to seats or agents. Beyond a certain level, there's overages that go into pure consumption. Even there, if you have commitments, long-term commitments to consumption, you get discounting that is appropriate with it. I feel like that's the direction of travel.
好的,从宏观层面说——Amy 也可以补充——我认为你已经说到了:客户希望有可预测性,尤其是在预算和采购方面。按席位定价只是对一定用量权利的授权。我认为这是理解它的方式:有一些基础使用权被捆绑或打包进席位里。这是人们购买一些用量包的便捷方式,只不过这些用量包恰好分配给了席位或智能体。超过一定水平后,超额部分就进入纯用量计费。即使在那里,如果你对用量有承诺、有长期承诺,也会获得相应的折扣。我觉得这就是发展方向。
P1071:01:23
Then the other thing you mentioned is, how is this going to. From a customer perspective, they're gonna evaluate it by evals. Where are they seeing the value of tokens? As simple as that. Where they see the outcome, the eval and the token, whether it's improving revenue, improving efficiency, and that's what'll define. Like, when we talk about IT budgets, IT budgets are going to have to be reshaped by a combination of business outcomes making their way into IT budgets, and maybe reallocation from other line items on the income statement like OpEx.
你提到的另一点是,这会如何……从客户的角度,他们会通过评测来评估:他们在哪里看到了 token 的价值?就这么简单。他们在哪里看到成果、评测结果和 token 的价值,无论是提升收入还是提高效率,这将决定一切。比如我们谈论 IT 预算时,IT 预算将不得不被重新塑造:一方面是业务成果进入 IT 预算,另一方面可能是从利润表中营业费用等其他项目重新分配过来。
P1081:02:02
Jonathan NeilsonVP of Investor Relations已校正
Thanks, Rishi. That wraps up the Q&A portion of today's earnings call. Thank you for joining us today, and we look forward to speaking with all of you soon.
谢谢 Rishi。今天财报电话会的问答环节到此结束。感谢大家今天的参与,我们期待很快与各位再次交流。
P1091:02:11
Rishi JaluriaSoftware Analyst, RBC Capital Markets
Thank you.
谢谢。
P1101:02:11
Thank you.
谢谢。
P1111:02:14
Operator
This concludes today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time, and enjoy the rest of your day.
今天的会议到此结束。现在可以挂断了,祝大家今天愉快。