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NASDAQ 跟踪中 报表币种 USD · 财年截至 11 月 下次财报 2026-12-10(FY2026Q4) ⚖ 专题对比 · 推理时代算力分流
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总览/博通/财报分析/FY2026Q3/逐字稿

FY2026Q3 电话会逐字稿

2026-09-02 来源:谷歌财经 / Quartr 90 段 · 16 位发言人 49 段被报告引用FY2026Q3 季度页 →电话会深度解析 →
译文 90/90 段 · 引用以英文原文为准

发言人

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姓名职位机构段落
Hock TanPresident and CEOBroadcom36
Operator15
Amie ThuenerCFOBroadcom10
Charlie KawwasPresident of Semiconductor Solutions GroupBroadcom5
Ji YooHead of Investor RelationsBroadcom3
Blayne CurtisAnalystJefferies4
Harlan SurAnalystJPMorgan3
Joseph MooreAnalystMorgan Stanley2
Stacy RasgonAnalystBernstein2
Will SteinAnalystTruist Securities2
Joshua BuchalterAnalystTD Cowen2
Vijay RakeshAnalystMizuho2
Jack AdairAnalystMelius1
Vivek AryaAnalystBank of America1
Tom O'MalleyAnalystBarclays1
Jim SchneiderAnalystGoldman Sachs1

● 公司管理层 / 主持人 ● 外部分析师

P00100:00
Operator
Welcome to Broadcom Inc.'s third quarter fiscal year 2026 financial results conference call. At this time, for opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn the call over to Jee Yu, Head of Investor Relations of Broadcom Inc. Please go ahead.
欢迎参加博通公司 2026 财年第三季度财务业绩电话会。现在,我将把电话交给博通公司投资者关系主管 Ji Yoo(注:原文误作 Jee Yu)做开场致辞和介绍。请讲。
P00200:17
Ji YooHead of Investor Relations
Thank you, Cherie, and good afternoon, everyone. Joining me on today's call are Hock Tan, President and CEO, Amie Thuener, Chief Financial Officer, and Charlie Kawwas, President, Semiconductor Solutions Group. Broadcom distributed a press release and financial tables after the market close describing our financial performance for the third quarter fiscal year 2026. If you did not receive a copy, you may obtain the information from the investor section of Broadcom's website at broadcom.com. This conference call is being webcast live and an audio replay of the call can be accessed for one year through the investor section of Broadcom's website. During the prepared comments, Hock and Amy will be providing details of our third quarter fiscal year 2026 results, guidance for our fourth quarter of fiscal year 2026, as well as commentary regarding the business environment. We'll take questions after the end of our prepared comments.
谢谢 Cherie,大家下午好。今天与我一同参加电话会的有总裁兼首席执行官 Hock Tan、首席财务官 Amie Thuener,以及半导体解决方案集团总裁 Charlie Kawwas。博通在盘后发布了新闻稿和财务表格,阐述了我们 2026 财年第三季度的财务表现。如果您尚未收到副本,可以从博通网站 broadcom.com 的投资者专区获取相关信息。本次电话会正在进行网络直播,电话会的音频回放可在 1 年内通过博通网站的投资者专区收听。在管理层陈述环节,Hock 和 Amie(注:原文误作 Amy)将详细介绍我们 2026 财年第三季度的业绩、2026 财年第四季度的指引,以及对业务环境的评论。我们将在管理层陈述结束后回答提问。
P00301:24
Please refer to our press release today and our recent filings with the SEC for information on risk factors that could cause our actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements made on this call. In addition to U.S. GAAP reporting, Broadcom reports certain financial measures on a non-GAAP basis. A reconciliation between GAAP and non-GAAP measures, to the extent possible, is included in the tables attached to today's press release. Comments made during today's call will primarily refer to our non-GAAP financial results. I will now turn the call over to Hock.
请参阅我们今天发布的新闻稿以及近期向美国证券交易委员会(SEC)提交的文件,了解可能导致实际结果与本次电话会所作前瞻性陈述存在重大差异的风险因素。除美国通用会计准则(U.S. GAAP)报告外,博通还按非通用会计准则(non-GAAP)报告部分财务指标。今天新闻稿所附表格中在可行范围内包含了 GAAP 与 non-GAAP 指标之间的调节表。今天电话会上的评论将主要基于我们的 non-GAAP 财务业绩。现在我将电话交给 Hock。
P00402:06
Hock TanPresident and CEO
Well, thank you, Jee, and thank you everyone here for joining us today. We delivered an exceptional quarter with revenue, operating income and free cash flow all exceeding prior records. Driving this was our Q3 AI semiconductor revenue, which grew 221% year-on-year and up 54% sequentially. This brought our consolidated revenue to $29.6 billion, which was up 86% year-on-year. Operating income grew even faster at 92% year-on-year, with operating margin at a record 68% of revenue, reflecting strong operating leverage. Q3 demand was simply hot and we're just getting started. Our six XPU customers are accelerating the adoption of custom accelerators and AI semiconductor revenue more than tripled year-over-year to $16.7 billion. During the quarter, we delivered Ironwood TPU v7, version 7 in high volume to both Anthropic and Google.
谢谢 Ji(注:原文误作 Jee),也感谢各位今天参会。我们交出了一份极其出色的季度答卷,营收、营业利润和自由现金流全部刷新历史最高纪录。推动这一表现的是我们第三季度的 AI 半导体营收,同比增长 221%,环比增长 54%。这使我们的合并营收达到 296 亿美元,同比增长 86%。营业利润增速更快,同比增长 92%,营业利润率达到占营收 68% 的创纪录水平,体现了强劲的经营杠杆。第三季度的需求极其火热,而我们才刚刚起步。我们的 6 家 XPU 客户正在加速采用定制加速器,AI 半导体营收同比翻了 3 倍以上,达到 167 亿美元。本季度,我们向 Anthropic 和谷歌大规模交付了第 7 代 Ironwood TPU(TPU v7)。
P00503:44
At the same time, we began production shipments of the next generation TPU v8i for Google. This new TPU generation has been designed with more memory and bandwidth compared to Ironwood and just like Ironwood, is optimized for inference workloads. In performance, it is comparable, if not surpasses the Vera Rubin GPU. Just to reiterate the major technology challenges of developing these complex accelerators, Broadcom is now shipping the TPU v8i ahead of the MediaTek v8t, which in fact was initiated earlier. In Q3, we also shipped Jalapeño, OpenAI's first generation custom accelerator, which outperforms Grace Blackwell GPU for inference workloads. Overall, our XPU shipments for the third quarter were up over 3.5x year-on-year and represented 73% of AI revenue during the quarter. Our AI networking revenue was up over 2.5x year-on-year.
与此同时,我们开始向谷歌量产出货下一代 TPU v8i。与 Ironwood 相比,这一新一代 TPU 在设计上配置了更大的内存容量和更高的带宽,而且与 Ironwood 一样,专门针对推理工作负载进行了优化。在性能方面,它足以匹敌甚至超越 Vera Rubin GPU。为了再次印证开发这类复杂加速器所面临的重大技术挑战,博通目前已经开始出货 TPU v8i,进度领先于实际上更早启动研发的联发科(MediaTek)v8t。在第三季度,我们还出货了 OpenAI 的第 1 代定制加速器 Jalapeño,其在推理工作负载上的表现优于 Grace Blackwell GPU。总体而言,我们第三季度的 XPU 出货量同比增长超过 3.5 倍,占当季 AI 营收的 73%。我们的 AI 网络营收同比增长超过 2.5 倍。
被引用:↩ 基本面档案 · 商业模式与收入结构↩ 基本面档案 · 护城河与竞争格局↩ FY2026Q3 季度复盘 · 结论摘要↩ FY2026Q3 季度复盘 · 财务拆解 · 营运资本↩ FY2026Q3 季度复盘 · 当季异动↩ FY2026Q3 季度复盘 · 分部表现↩ FY2026Q3 季度复盘 · 电话会要点 · 分部与业务动态 ×2↩ FY2026Q3 老唐风格精评 · 二、扒一扒两大核心印钞机:定制芯片跟通用霸主抢食,软件底座坐收过路费↩ FY2026Q3 电话会解析 · 核心判断↩ FY2026Q3 电话会解析 · 管理层发言解析 · Hock Tan|总裁兼 CEO↩ 年砸 6,000 亿美金的算力豪赌:云三强烧穿自由现金流、集体举债,谁最先跑通真金白银的正循环? · 核心判断↩ 年砸 6,000 亿美金的算力豪赌:云三强烧穿自由现金流、集体举债,谁最先跑通真金白银的正循环? · 底层逻辑与关键账本 · 表二:上游芯片(AVGO/NVDA)交叉对账、单吉瓦(GW)算力物理经济账与 2027 折旧/净现金底牌↩ 年砸 6,000 亿美金的算力豪赌:云三强烧穿自由现金流、集体举债,谁最先跑通真金白银的正循环? · 核心争议拆解 · 争议一:联立上游博通/英伟达账本与滞后本金,谁的真实算力增量 ROIC 最高?——结论:谷歌(31.5%)靠半价 TPU 夺冠,亚马逊(27.1%)居次,微软(18.2%)垫底↩ 年砸 6,000 亿美金的算力豪赌:云三强烧穿自由现金流、集体举债,谁最先跑通真金白银的正循环? · 核心争议拆解 · 争议二:剥离 OpenAI 与 Anthropic 关联长单后,1.83 万亿 RPO 谁的成色最硬?——结论:亚马逊 81% 原生企业云最稳,谷歌借甲骨文/黑石外溢,微软遭 OpenAI 自研芯片反噬↩ 年砸 6,000 亿美金的算力豪赌:云三强烧穿自由现金流、集体举债,谁最先跑通真金白银的正循环? · 外部一手资料与产业链引用记录↩ 推理时代算力分流:定制 ASIC 与开放架构能不能抢走通用 GPU 的份额? · 核心判断 ×3↩ 推理时代算力分流:定制 ASIC 与开放架构能不能抢走通用 GPU 的份额? · 技术路线与客户分单账本 · 表一:三强算力架构、机柜互联路线与单吉瓦经济账矩阵 ×2↩ 推理时代算力分流:定制 ASIC 与开放架构能不能抢走通用 GPU 的份额? · 技术路线与客户分单账本 · 表二:全球六大超级买家(Hyperscalers & Frontier Labs)真实分单全景账本 ×2↩ 推理时代算力分流:定制 ASIC 与开放架构能不能抢走通用 GPU 的份额? · 核心争议拆解 · 争议一:训练求上限、推理算总账——为什么云巨头非要找博通定制 XPU? ×2↩ 推理时代算力分流:定制 ASIC 与开放架构能不能抢走通用 GPU 的份额? · 多方原话交锋与验真标尺 · 对质一:定制 XPU 与开放机柜 vs 通用 GPU 的性能与成本 ×2
P00605:20
This strong momentum continues into Q4. During the quarter, we expect to accelerate shipments of Ironwood to Anthropic. We also expect to ramp up high volume shipments of the TPU v8i to Google. Shipments of Jalapeño for OpenAI will continue, and for Meta, we expect production shipments of their custom MTIA accelerator optimized for inference and recommendation at scale. In Q4, we expect both XPUs and AI networking revenue to triple year-on-year. Together, we expect these deployments to drive our Q4 AI revenue to $21.7 billion, which is up 236% year-on-year. Based on this Q4 guidance, I should say, we expect our fiscal 2026 AI revenue to be $58 billion for the year, up 186% year-on-year, and above our prior guidance of $56 million. We are continuing to see exponential growth in demand from our XPU customers.
这一强劲势头将延续至第四季度。在第四季度,我们预计将加速向 Anthropic 出货 Ironwood,同时预计将向谷歌大规模放量出货 TPU v8i。面向 OpenAI 的 Jalapeño 出货将继续推进;在 Meta 方面,我们预计将量产出货其针对大规模推理和推荐系统优化的定制 MTIA 加速器。在第四季度,我们预计 XPU 和 AI 网络营收均将同比翻 3 倍。综合来看,我们预计这些部署将推动第四季度 AI 营收达到 217 亿美元,同比增长 236%。应该说,基于这一第四季度指引,我们预计 2026 财年全年 AI 营收将达到 580 亿美元,同比增长 186%,高于我们此前 5,600 万美元(注:口误,应为 560 亿美元)的指引。我们持续看到来自 XPU 客户的需求呈指数级增长。
P00707:00
We believe the vast majority of compute demand for AI workloads today originates from this concentrated group who develops state-of-the-art frontier models. We expect their need for compute infrastructure to inflate even more in 2027 and 2028. They are all growing with XPUs to achieve superior performance, cost, and power. Let me now walk you through each of their journey, each of our customers' journey towards using XPUs at scale to run their frontier models worldwide. Workloads, sorry. Our engagement with Google has never been stronger. This has been recently strengthened by a long-term agreement to develop and supply future generations of TPUs and AI networking. Under this agreement, we're planning to deliver multi-tens of billions of dollars of TPUs annually over the next several years.
我们认为,当今 AI 工作负载的绝大部分算力需求都源自这一开发最前沿模型的高度集中的客户群体。我们预计他们在 2027 年和 2028 年对算力基础设施的需求还将进一步膨胀。他们都在通过扩大 XPU 部署来实现更优的性能、成本和功耗。现在,请允许我逐一介绍每家客户在规模化采用 XPU 运行其全球前沿模型工作负载方面的推进历程。我们与谷歌的合作关系前所未有地稳固。近期我们签署了一项长期协议,以开发和供应未来多代 TPU 及 AI 网络产品,进一步强化了这一合作关系。根据该协议,我们计划在未来几年内每年交付数百亿美元规模的 TPU。
P00808:27
We expect this growing demand in 2028 and 2029 to be fulfilled through successive generations of the increasingly complex TPUs we are developing today with Google. Our partnership with Google will continue to sustain because we have the strongest IP portfolio in semiconductor design, including industry-leading SERDES, chip-to-chip interconnect, leading-edge HBM and SRAM integration, and simply differentiated advanced packaging. Most of all, we have consistently, I should say, delivered the fastest time to market for TPUs from product definition to production without the need for resmits. We believe these are very deep moats for any competitor to cross. Moving on to Anthropic. Starting with the 1 gigawatt of Ironwood we are deploying in 2026, we expect Anthropic to deploy another 5 gigawatts of TPU v8i in 2027.
我们预计 2028 年和 2029 年不断增长的需求,将通过我们目前正与谷歌共同开发的、复杂度不断提升的后续多代 TPU 来满足。我们与谷歌的合作伙伴关系之所以能够持续稳固,是因为我们在半导体设计领域拥有最强大的知识产权(IP)组合,包括行业领先的 SerDes、芯片间互连(chip-to-chip interconnect)、前沿的高带宽内存(HBM)与 SRAM 集成,以及极具差异化的先进封装技术。最重要的是,应该说我们始终如一地实现了 TPU 从产品定义到投入量产的最快上市时间,而无需重新流片(注:原文 resmits 应为 respins)。我们认为,这些都是任何竞争对手难以跨越的深厚护城河。接下来看 Anthropic。从我们在 2026 年部署的 1 吉瓦 Ironwood 起步,我们预计 Anthropic 将在 2027 年再部署 5 吉瓦的 TPU v8i。
P00909:57
In 2028, we have clear line of sight to deliver an incremental 10 gigawatts, even as we expect Google to grow for us. Anthropic is on track to become our largest XPU customer in 2027 and sustain that in 2028. For OpenAI, Jalapeño is on track for the planned deployment of 1.3 gigawatts in 2027. Together with OpenAI, we are deep in development of the next generation XPU beyond Jalapeño, which is approaching tape-out. In 2028, we have line of sight for OpenAI to deploy over 5 gigawatts of Jalapeño and its successor generation of XPU, which would make OpenAI our second-largest XPU customer. In addition, we are in development with OpenAI on their third generation XPU. As OpenAI announced last week, Jalapeño outperforms the Grace Blackwell Ultra in performance per watt, latency, throughput, and power, and is actually comparable to very robust GPUs in running OpenAI workloads.
到了 2028 年,即便我们预计谷歌对我们的需求将继续增长,我们依然清晰地看到将向 Anthropic 交付新增的 10 吉瓦算力。Anthropic 正按计划在 2027 年成为我们最大的 XPU 客户,并在 2028 年继续保持这一地位。在 OpenAI 方面,Jalapeño 正按计划推进,以实现 2027 年部署 1.3 吉瓦的目标。同时,我们正与 OpenAI 深入开发 Jalapeño 之后的下一代 XPU,目前已接近流片(tape-out)。到了 2028 年,我们清晰地看到 OpenAI 将部署超过 5 吉瓦的 Jalapeño 及其下一代 XPU,这将使 OpenAI 成为我们的第二大 XPU 客户。此外,我们还在与 OpenAI 共同开发其第 3 代 XPU。正如 OpenAI 上周宣布的,Jalapeño 在每瓦性能、延迟、吞吐量和功耗方面均优于 Grace Blackwell Ultra,在运行 OpenAI 工作负载时实际上足以匹敌非常强大的 GPU。
被引用:↩ 基本面档案 · 投资要点↩ 基本面档案 · 主要风险 · 六大 AI 客户高度集中与算力周期见顶↩ FY2026Q3 季度复盘 · 当季异动↩ FY2026Q3 季度复盘 · 电话会要点 · 分部与业务动态 ×2↩ FY2026Q3 老唐风格精评 · 三、显微镜看两大异动:一边扩产关键零件,一边拉着华尔街给客户搭台借钱买卡↩ FY2026Q3 电话会解析 · 核心判断 ×2↩ 云三强一年砸 6,000 亿建算力:用同一把尺子量,谁的投入回本最快? · 核心争议拆解 · 争议四:几千亿积压订单里,单一客户风险有多大?——结论:微软最高;谷歌、亚马逊没有可核对的数据↩ 年砸 6,000 亿美金的算力豪赌:云三强烧穿自由现金流、集体举债,谁最先跑通真金白银的正循环? · 核心争议拆解 · 争议二:剥离 OpenAI 与 Anthropic 关联长单后,1.83 万亿 RPO 谁的成色最硬?——结论:亚马逊 81% 原生企业云最稳,谷歌借甲骨文/黑石外溢,微软遭 OpenAI 自研芯片反噬↩ 年砸 6,000 亿美金的算力豪赌:云三强烧穿自由现金流、集体举债,谁最先跑通真金白银的正循环? · 多方原话交锋与验真标尺 · 未来 2–4 个季度检验上述推演模型的四大定量标尺↩ 年砸 6,000 亿美金的算力豪赌:云三强烧穿自由现金流、集体举债,谁最先跑通真金白银的正循环? · 外部一手资料与产业链引用记录↩ 推理时代算力分流:定制 ASIC 与开放架构能不能抢走通用 GPU 的份额? · 技术路线与客户分单账本 · 表二:全球六大超级买家(Hyperscalers & Frontier Labs)真实分单全景账本
P01011:42
The lesson here is when you co-develop a chip that is optimized for your particular LLM workloads, you will outperform any GPU. Like TPUs, Jalapeño demonstrates that it can also run other frontier models, and you can do all this at half the cost of a GPU. Our partnership with Meta to deliver multiple generations of MTIA XPUs remains on track. Between now and the end of 2027, we will be delivering three generations of MTIA accelerators to Meta. Across these three generations, we have line of sight to deploy 3 gigawatts through 2028. Our content in AI, as you know, goes beyond XPUs. We are the leader in AI networking, and we continue to extend our lead.
这里的启示在于,当你针对自身特定的大语言模型(LLM)工作负载联合开发定制优化的芯片时,你的表现就会超越任何通用 GPU。与 TPU 一样,Jalapeño 证明了它同样能够运行其他前沿模型,而且完成这一切的成本仅为 GPU 的一半(50%)。我们与 Meta 交付多代 MTIA XPU 的合作伙伴关系仍在按计划推进。从现在起到 2027 年底,我们将向 Meta 交付 3 代 MTIA 加速器。跨越这 3 代产品,我们清晰地看到截至 2028 年将累计部署 3 吉瓦。如各位所知,我们在 AI 领域的价值量远不止于 XPU。我们是 AI 网络领域的领导者,并且正在持续扩大领先优势。
P01112:57
In Ethernet switching for scale up and scale out, we were first to market with our 100 terabit Tomahawk 6, and we just taped out Tomahawk 7, the industry's first 200 terabit per second Ethernet switch. For scaling in, we continue to be the leader in every generation of PCI Express switching. We are now the leader in leading-edge optical DSPs and are rapidly expanding our capacity and market position as a leader in EMLs, VCSELs, and CW lasers for optical interconnects. In sum, we continue to invest and invest heavily to provide the broadest and most leading-edge AI portfolio. In fact, our AI networking revenue is expected to grow just as fast as XPUs over the next few years. Reflecting our excellent progress with this key group of LLM customers, here is our outlook for our AI semiconductor revenue.
在用于纵向扩展(scale up)和横向扩展(scale out)的以太网交换机领域,我们率先向市场推出了 100T 的 Tomahawk 6,并且刚刚完成了行业首款每秒 200T 以太网交换机 Tomahawk 7 的流片。在服务器内部扩展(scaling in)方面,我们在每一代 PCI Express 交换机上都保持领先地位。我们目前已是前沿光模块 DSP 领域的领导者,并正快速扩充产能和市场地位,成为光互连领域的电吸收调制激光器(EML)、垂直腔面发射激光器(VCSEL)和连续波(CW)激光器的领导者。总而言之,我们持续进行大力投入,以提供最广泛、最前沿的 AI 产品组合。事实上,预计在未来几年内,我们的 AI 网络营收将与 XPU 保持同样快的增速。基于我们与这一核心大语言模型客户群体取得的卓越进展,以下是我们对 AI 半导体营收的展望。
P01214:26
In 2027, we have secured the supply to again double AI revenue to approximately $115 billion. Our demand actually exceeds this outlook, and we will work to improve supply. In 2028, we expect the trajectory of growth to continue. We have line of sight for fiscal 2028 AI semiconductor revenue growth to again double to $230 billion. Here again, we have secured the supply to meet this outlook. This AI revenue guidance through 2028 is being provided to give you the trajectory of our growth. That demand for compute continues to be extremely strong. As a result, I got to say, we are very much on target to exceed $30 in earnings per share in fiscal 2028. Turning to non-AI semiconductors, Q3 revenue of $4.2 billion was up 5% year-on-year and flat sequentially. Broadband and server storage together were up, partially offset by a decline in wireless.
在 2027 财年,我们已经锁定了供应,足以支撑 AI 营收再次翻倍至约 1,150 亿美元。我们的实际需求其实超出了这一展望,我们将努力进一步提升供应能力。到了 2028 财年,我们预计这一增长轨迹仍将延续。我们清晰地看到 2028 财年 AI 半导体营收将再次翻倍至 2,300 亿美元,而且我们也已经锁定了满足这一展望所需的供应。提供直至 2028 财年的 AI 营收指引,是为了让大家看清我们的增长轨迹。市场对算力的需求依然极其强劲。因此我必须说,我们非常有把握在 2028 财年实现每股收益(EPS)超过 30 美元的目标。再看非 AI 半导体业务,第三季度营收为 42 亿美元,同比增长 5%,环比持平。宽带和服务器存储业务合计实现增长,部分被无线业务的下滑所抵消。
被引用:↩ 基本面档案 · 投资要点 ×2↩ 基本面档案 · 商业模式与收入结构↩ FY2026Q3 季度复盘 · 结论摘要↩ FY2026Q3 季度复盘 · 业绩与指引 ×3↩ FY2026Q3 季度复盘 · 分部表现↩ FY2026Q3 季度复盘 · 电话会要点 · 指引与展望↩ FY2026Q3 季度复盘 · 管理层口径变化 ×3↩ FY2026Q3 季度复盘 · 叙事 vs 报表↩ 估值 · 方法选择↩ 估值 · 两阶段 DCF↩ 估值 · 反向 DCF 交叉验证↩ 估值 · 结论与需要跟踪的信号↩ FY2026Q3 老唐风格精评 · 二、扒一扒两大核心印钞机:定制芯片跟通用霸主抢食,软件底座坐收过路费 ×2↩ FY2026Q3 老唐风格精评 · 五、老唐毛估估:面对两千亿远期大饼,天平怎么摆?↩ FY2026Q3 电话会解析 · 核心判断 ×2↩ FY2026Q3 电话会解析 · 措辞与语气信号 ×2↩ FY2026Q3 电话会解析 · 对投资判断的含义↩ 指引与语气 · 核心结论↩ 指引与语气 · 指引演变 · 2. AI 半导体季度与跨年度营收路线图(`ai_revenue_next_quarter` / `ai_revenue_fy2026` / `ai_revenue_fy2027` / `ai_revenue_fy2028`)↩ 指引与语气 · 指引可信度↩ 推理时代算力分流:定制 ASIC 与开放架构能不能抢走通用 GPU 的份额? · 核心争议拆解 · 争议一:训练求上限、推理算总账——为什么云巨头非要找博通定制 XPU?↩ 推理时代算力分流:定制 ASIC 与开放架构能不能抢走通用 GPU 的份额? · 多方原话交锋与验真标尺 · 未来 2–4 个季度检验「算力分流」走向的四大标尺
P01316:10
In Q4, we forecast non-AI semiconductor revenue to be approximately $4.3 billion, again up 5% sequentially. Talking about infrastructure software. Q3 revenue of $8.8 billion was up 29% year-on-year and we sustained ARR growth of 15% year-on-year. For Q4, we forecast infrastructure software revenue to stabilize at approximately $8.7 billion. We announced VMware Private AI Cloud, giving enterprises a secure, cost-effective platform to build and run AI alongside their existing applications. It brings together AI infrastructure, security, and compliance and the tools to build and operate trusted AI agents, all while protecting enterprise data. VCF, VMware Cloud that is also making it easier for customers to repatriate workloads from public cloud to private cloud, where they can gain greater control and significantly improve infrastructure economics. Enterprise consumption of AI is, in fact, opening a new opportunity for our infrastructure software business.
在第四季度,我们预计非 AI 半导体营收约为 43 亿美元,环比增长约 5%(注:以精确值计算环比增长约 2.4%,同比亦接近 5%)。接下来谈谈基础设施软件业务。第三季度营收为 88 亿美元,同比增长 29%,年度经常性收入(ARR)保持 15% 的同比增长。对于第四季度,我们预计基础设施软件营收将稳定在约 87 亿美元。我们发布了 VMware Private AI Cloud,为企业客户提供了一个安全、高性价比的平台,使其能够在现有应用程序旁构建和运行 AI。它将 AI 基础设施、安全与合规,以及构建和运营可信 AI 智能体(agents)的工具融为一体,同时全面保护企业数据。此外,VCF(即 VMware Cloud Foundation)也让客户能够更轻松地将工作负载从公有云迁回私有云,从而获得更大的控制权并显著改善基础设施的经济性。企业客户对 AI 的消耗,实际上正在为我们的基础设施软件业务打开一个全新的增长机遇。
P01417:45
To sum it all, for Q4 2026, we expect consolidated revenue to grow to $34.8 billion, up 93% year-on-year. We expect Q4 AI revenue to be $21.7 billion, up 236% year-on-year, and we expect operating margin to be approximately 66% of revenue. With that, let me turn it over to
总而言之,对于 2026 财年第四季度,我们预计合并营收将增长至 348 亿美元,同比增长 93%。我们预计第四季度 AI 营收将达到 217 亿美元,同比增长 236%,并预计营业利润率约为营收的 66%。下面我将把电话交给
P01518:15
Amy.
Amie(注:原文误作 Amy)。
P01618:16
Amie ThuenerCFO
Thank you, Hock. Let me now provide additional detail on our Q3 financial performance. Consolidated revenue was a record $29.6 billion for the quarter, up 86% year-on-year. Gross margin was 75% of revenue in the quarter, down 210 basis points sequentially as AI semiconductor revenue was a greater proportion of our total revenue mix. This was better than our guidance of 74%. Q3 operating income was a record $20.1 billion, up 92% from a year ago. Even with the decline in gross margin due to revenue mix, operating margin increased 240 basis points year-over-year to 67.9% because of the phenomenal operating leverage we are achieving. Aligned with this, Q3 non-GAAP EPS of $3.32 was up 96% year-on-year. Now I will review the P&L for our two segments, starting with semiconductors. Revenue for our Semiconductor Solutions segment was a record $20.8 billion, up 127% year-on-year, and represented 70% of our total revenue.
谢谢 Hock。现在我来更详细地介绍我们第三季度的财务表现。本季度合并营收达到创纪录的 296 亿美元,同比增长 86%。本季度毛利率为营收的 75%,环比下降 210 个基点,原因是 AI 半导体营收在我们的总营收组合中占比上升,但这依然优于我们 74% 的指引。第三季度营业利润达到创纪录的 201 亿美元,同比增长 92%。尽管营收结构变化导致毛利率下降,但凭借我们实现的卓越经营杠杆,营业利润率依然同比提升了 240 个基点至 67.9%。与此一致,第三季度 non-GAAP 摊薄每股收益(EPS)为 3.32 美元,同比增长 96%。现在我来回顾两个分部的损益表,首先从半导体业务开始。半导体解决方案分部营收达到创纪录的 208 亿美元,同比增长 127%,占我们总营收的 70%。
P01719:38
AI semiconductor revenue of $16.7 billion represented 56% of total revenue, up from 49% in Q2. Gross margin for our Semiconductor Solutions segment was approximately 76%. Operating expenses of $1.2 billion reflected investments in R&D, with OPEX representing 6% of segment revenue. Operating margin of 61% was up 440 basis points year-on-year as revenue growth of 127% outpaced operating expenses, which grew 22% year-on-year. Moving on to infrastructure software. Revenue of $8.8 billion was up 29% year-on-year and represented 30% of our total revenue. Gross margins for infrastructure software was 94% in the quarter, and operating expenses were over $900 million. Q3 software operating margin was up 650 basis points year-on-year to approximately 84%. Moving on to the balance sheet. We ended the third quarter with $24 billion of cash, compared to $19.6 billion in the prior quarter, up $4.3 billion sequentially.
AI 半导体营收为 167 亿美元,占总营收的 56%,高于第二季度的 49%。半导体解决方案分部的毛利率约为 76%(注:管理层在问答环节 P062 更正为约 67%)。营业费用为 12 亿美元,反映了在研发方面的投入,营业费用占该分部营收的 6%。分部营业利润率为 61%,同比提升 440 个基点,因为 127% 的营收增速远快于营业费用 22% 的同比增速。接下来看基础设施软件业务。营收为 88 亿美元,同比增长 29%,占我们总营收的 30%。本季度基础设施软件毛利率为 94%,营业费用超过 9 亿美元。第三季度软件营业利润率同比提升 650 个基点至约 84%。接下来看资产负债表。第三季度末我们的现金为 240 亿美元,而上一季度末为 196 亿美元,环比增加 43 亿美元。
P01820:59
We ended the third quarter with inventory of $4.5 billion to support our strong semiconductor demand. Moving on to cash flow. Free cash flow in the quarter was a record $13.7 billion and represented 46% of revenue. We spent $532 million on capital expenditures in the quarter. Turning to capital allocation. In Q3, we paid stockholders $3.1 billion of cash dividends based on a quarterly common stock dividend of $0.65 per share. In Q3, we also paid down $5.6 billion of long-term debt. Subsequent to quarter end, we paid down an additional $1.5 billion of senior notes upon maturity. The weighted average coupon rate and years to maturity of our gross principal fixed rate debt of $59.6 billion is 4% and 7.4 years, respectively.
第三季度末我们的存货为 45 亿美元,以支持强劲的半导体需求。接下来看现金流。本季度自由现金流达到创纪录的 137 亿美元,占营收的 46%。本季度我们在资本开支上投入了 5.32 亿美元。再看资本配置。在第三季度,基于每股 0.65 美元的季度普通股股息,我们向股东支付了 31 亿美元的现金股息。在第三季度,我们还偿还了 56 亿美元的长期债务。季度结束后,我们又在到期时偿还了另外 15 亿美元的优先票据。我们总计 596 亿美元固定利率债务本金总额的加权平均票面利率和剩余到期年限分别为 4% 和 7.4 年。
P01922:00
In June, we established the AI XPV platform in partnership with Apollo and Blackstone to enable more than 20 gigawatts of compute infrastructure for OpenAI and Anthropic by the end of 2028. We closed the first $35 billion tranche in June for Anthropic's one gigawatt deployment, which is already underway. While future tranches will include unique features tailored to specific lab and investor needs, our core strategy remains consistent. First, we are empowering two of our most strategic customers, the leading AI labs, to bridge the gap between their current cash flow and the significant upfront investments required for their businesses. Our XPUs enable cost-effective, sustainable growth at multiples of their infrastructure costs. Second, this XPV platform enables highly investable customers and facilitates execution where demand is already locked in.
今年 6 月,我们与 Apollo 和 Blackstone 合作建立了 AI XPU(注:原文误作 XPV)平台,以支持 OpenAI 和 Anthropic 在 2028 年底前部署超过 20 吉瓦的算力基础设施。我们在 6 月完成了针对 Anthropic 1 吉瓦部署的首期 350 亿美元融资项目交割,目前该部署已经在推进中。虽然未来的各期项目将包含针对特定实验室和投资者需求量身定制的独特条款,但我们的核心策略保持一致。第一,我们正在赋能我们最具战略意义的 2 家客户——即领先的 AI 实验室——帮助他们弥合当前现金流与业务所需巨额前期投入之间的资金缺口。我们的 XPU 能够支持他们以基础设施成本数倍的效率实现高性价比、可持续的增长。第二,这一 XPU(注:原文误作 XPV)平台能够赋能极具投资价值的客户,并在需求已经锁定的情况下促成项目落地执行。
P02023:11
And third, we review any strategic financings through a commercial as well as balance sheet lens, consistent with our existing capital allocation framework. Through the XPV platform, we partner with sophisticated third-party financial partners to independently underwrite and capitalize the assets rather than providing the direct financing ourselves. Where necessary, we may provide modest residual value guarantees, which are contingent liabilities we view as low risk, supported by the strong profitability trajectory of these labs and the sustaining value of the underlying assets. Moving on to guidance. Our guidance for Q4 is for consolidated revenue of $34.8 billion, up 93% year-on-year. We forecast semiconductor revenue of approximately $26.1 billion, up 136% year-on-year. Within this, we expect Q4 AI semiconductor revenue of $21.7 billion, up over 236% year-on-year. We expect Q4 infrastructure software revenue of approximately $8.7 billion, up 25% year-on-year. Moving on to margins.
第三,我们从商业和资产负债表双重角度审视任何战略性融资安排,这与我们现有的资本配置框架完全一致。通过 XPU(注:原文误作 XPV)平台,我们与经验丰富的第三方金融合作伙伴携手,由他们对资产进行独立承销和出资,而不是由我们自己直接提供融资。在必要情况下,我们可能会提供适度的残值担保(residual value guarantees);鉴于这些实验室强劲的盈利增长轨迹以及底层资产的持续价值,我们将这类或有负债视为低风险事项。接下来看业绩指引。我们对第四季度的指引是合并营收达到 348 亿美元,同比增长 93%。我们预计半导体营收约为 261 亿美元,同比增长 136%。其中,我们预计第四季度 AI 半导体营收为 217 亿美元,同比增长超过 236%。我们预计第四季度基础设施软件营收约为 87 亿美元,同比增长 25%。接下来看利润率。
被引用:↩ 基本面档案 · 投资要点↩ 基本面档案 · 管理层与资本配置↩ FY2026Q3 季度复盘 · 结论摘要 ×2↩ FY2026Q3 季度复盘 · 业绩与指引 ×4↩ FY2026Q3 季度复盘 · 电话会要点 · 风险与逆风↩ FY2026Q3 季度复盘 · 叙事 vs 报表↩ 估值 · 结论与需要跟踪的信号 ×2↩ FY2026Q3 老唐风格精评 · 三、显微镜看两大异动:一边扩产关键零件,一边拉着华尔街给客户搭台借钱买卡 ×2↩ FY2026Q3 老唐风格精评 · 五、老唐毛估估:面对两千亿远期大饼,天平怎么摆?↩ FY2026Q3 电话会解析 · 管理层发言解析 · Amie Thuener|CFO↩ FY2026Q3 电话会解析 · 对投资判断的含义↩ 指引与语气 · 指引演变 · 3. 非 AI 半导体与基础设施软件分部指引(`non_ai_semi_revenue_next_quarter` / `software_revenue_next_quarter`)↩ 指引与语气 · 需要跟踪的信号↩ 云三强一年砸 6,000 亿建算力:用同一把尺子量,谁的投入回本最快? · 多方原话交锋与验真标尺 · 对质三:2027 年谁会踩刹车?——结论:三家都说 2027 年继续加码,资金来源从自有现金流转向借款↩ 年砸 6,000 亿美金的算力豪赌:云三强烧穿自由现金流、集体举债,谁最先跑通真金白银的正循环? · 核心争议拆解 · 争议二:剥离 OpenAI 与 Anthropic 关联长单后,1.83 万亿 RPO 谁的成色最硬?——结论:亚马逊 81% 原生企业云最稳,谷歌借甲骨文/黑石外溢,微软遭 OpenAI 自研芯片反噬↩ 年砸 6,000 亿美金的算力豪赌:云三强烧穿自由现金流、集体举债,谁最先跑通真金白银的正循环? · 多方原话交锋与验真标尺 · 对质三:现金流承压下 2027 年谁最先踩刹车?——结论:三家 2027 年均不踩刹车,但微软次日发债 250 亿与上下游垫资担保揭示全产业链进入“信用杠杆扩张期”↩ 推理时代算力分流:定制 ASIC 与开放架构能不能抢走通用 GPU 的份额? · 多方原话交锋与验真标尺 · 未来 2–4 个季度检验「算力分流」走向的四大标尺
P02124:41
As the proportion of AI revenue accelerates in Q4, we expect our Q4 consolidated gross margin to be approximately 73%, down from 78% a year ago. As we have discussed previously, this reflects the increasing mix of XPUs with their increasing memory content, which is diluting our consolidated gross margin. Regardless, we expect Q4 operating margin to be approximately 66%, flat from a year ago, because our strong revenue growth drives substantial operating leverage. We expect the non-GAAP tax rate for Q4 and fiscal year 2026 rate to be approximately 16% due to the impact of the global minimum tax and the geographic mix of income compared to that of fiscal year 2025. We expect the Q4 non-GAAP diluted share count to be approximately 4.94 billion shares, excluding the impact of potential share repurchases.
随着第四季度 AI 营收占比加速上升,我们预计第四季度合并毛利率约为 73%,低于去年同期的 78%。正如我们此前讨论过的,这反映了内存含量更高的 XPU 占比上升,从而对合并毛利率产生了摊薄影响。尽管如此,我们预计第四季度营业利润率约为 66%,与去年同期持平,因为强劲的营收增长带来了可观的经营杠杆。由于全球最低税率的影响以及收入地域结构与 2025 财年相比的变化,我们预计第四季度及 2026 财年全年的 non-GAAP 有效税率约为 16%。不考虑潜在股票回购的影响,我们预计第四季度 non-GAAP 摊薄后股数约为 49.4 亿股。
P02225:48
In Q4, we expect capital expenditures of $1.4 billion as we invest in capacity for semiconductors. As Hock mentioned in his remarks, we expect AI revenue to double again to approximately $115 billion in fiscal 2027 and double again in fiscal 2028 to $230 billion. This AI revenue guidance is being provided to you to give you the trajectory of our growth, and we do not intend to update it on a quarterly basis. That concludes my prepared remarks. Operator, please open up the call for questions.
在第四季度,随着我们投资扩充半导体产能,我们预计资本开支将达到 14 亿美元。正如 Hock 在陈述中所提到的,我们预计 AI 营收将在 2027 财年再次翻倍至约 1,150 亿美元,并在 2028 财年再次翻倍至 2,300 亿美元。向各位提供这一 AI 营收指引是为了让大家了解我们的增长轨迹,我们不打算按季度对其进行更新。我的管理层陈述到此结束。主持人,请开放提问环节。
问答环节
P02326:27
Operator
Thank you. As a reminder, to ask a question, you will need to press *11 on your telephone. To withdraw your question, press *11 again. Due to time restraints, we ask that you please limit yourself to one question. One moment while we compile the Q&A roster. That will come from the line of Joseph Moore with Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.
谢谢。提醒各位,如需提问,请按电话上的星号键加 11。如需撤回提问,请再次按星号键加 11。由于时间有限,请每位提问者仅限提 1 个问题。请稍候,我们正在汇总问答名单。第一个问题来自摩根士丹利的 Joseph Moore。您的线路已接通。
P02426:55
Joseph MooreAnalyst, Morgan Stanley
Great. Thank you, and congratulations on the results. You talked about the business doubling next year, and you said demand could be higher than that. Can you talk about the supply around that and what are the supply bottlenecks and what are the variables that could drive that number higher if you're able to resolve them?
太好了,谢谢,祝贺你们取得优异的业绩。您刚才提到明年 AI 业务将翻倍,并且表示实际需求可能比这更高。您能否谈谈围绕这一目标的供应情况?目前的供应瓶颈在哪里?如果你们能够解决这些瓶颈,有哪些变量可能会推动这一数字进一步超出预期?
P02527:14
Hock TanPresident and CEO
Well, Joe, that's a loaded question. Whatever I tell you guys go out and print a bigger number. I think that's funny. We're very careful, and to be honest, we try to be conservative. So we're giving you an outlook, and demand, we can ship significantly more. Question in our mind sometimes is, even as we ship the chips, are they going to be deployed on a timely basis? That's always very much in our mind when we give you that outlook. But certainly our customers want us to ship more. But we have secured supply, and we think it's the right number to put it to 115. If circumstances change and our ability to scale more supply change, of course we will uplift. But at this point, that's our best outlook.
嗯,Joe,你这个问题可是带刺的。不管我跟你们说什么数字,你们出去写报告都会印一个更大的数字,我觉得这挺有意思。我们非常谨慎,老实说,我们尽量保持保守。所以我们给出了这样一个展望;单看需求的话,我们完全可以出货多得多的产品。但我们在给出展望时,脑海里常会思考的一个问题是:就算我们把芯片出货了,客户能否及时把它们部署上线?这是我们在给各位提供展望时始终高度关注的问题。当然,我们的客户肯定希望我们多出货。但我们已经锁定了相应供应,并且认为将目标定在 1,150 亿美元是一个合适的数字。如果后续情况发生变化,且我们扩充更多供应的能力也相应提升,我们当然会上调目标。但在目前这个时点,这就是我们最稳妥的展望。
P02628:16
By the way, the same thinking applies to 2028 when we give you that outlook of $230 billion. This is real demand, we believe, based on what data center sites, locations are ready 2028 with respect to our customers, the size of what we have, and against the supply chain we have in leading-edge wafers, substrates, and HBM memory. This is again, a carefully structured outlook that we believe we can achieve.
顺便说一句,当我们给出 2028 财年 2,300 亿美元的展望时,遵循的也是同样的逻辑。我们认为这是实打实的需求,是基于我们的客户在 2028 年能够准备就绪的数据中心站点和机房位置、我们所掌握的项目规模,并对照我们在前沿晶圆、基板和高带宽内存(HBM)方面的供应链能力综合得出的。因此,这同样是一个经过审慎规划、我们相信自己能够实现的展望。
P02729:00
Joseph MooreAnalyst, Morgan Stanley
Great. Thank you.
太好了,谢谢。
P02829:02
Operator
One moment for our next question. That will come from the line of Blayne Curtis with Jefferies. Your line is open.
请稍候,我们接听下一个问题。下一个问题来自 Jefferies 的 Blayne Curtis。您的线路已接通。
P02929:12
Blayne CurtisAnalyst, Jefferies
Hey, guys. Thanks for taking my question. I actually want to follow up on Joseph's on supply, big key point. Can you just talk about from either a substrate or interposer co-ops replacement, has any XPUs decided to use your Singapore capacity, and how does that fit into that supply picture you put together?
大家好,感谢接受我的提问。我想顺着 Joseph 关于供应的问题继续追问,这是一个非常关键的切入点。无论是从基板(substrate)还是硅中介层(interposer)/ CoWoS(注:原文误作 co-ops)替代方案的角度来看,您能否谈谈目前是否有任何 XPU 项目决定采用你们新加坡工厂的产能?这在你们构建的整体供应版图中扮演什么角色?
P03029:32
Hock TanPresident and CEO
Well, we are going to start deploying our Singapore fab for substrates, by the way, starting fiscal 2027. That would, I guess, address a key part of our supply bottlenecks. Anything else?
顺便说一下,我们将从 2027 财年开始投入使用我们在新加坡的基板工厂。我想这将解决我们供应瓶颈中的一个关键部分。还有其他问题吗?
P03129:58
Operator
One moment.
请稍候。
P03229:59
Blayne CurtisAnalyst, Jefferies
Maybe you can. Go.
也许可以再问一下。请讲。
P03330:01
Hock TanPresident and CEO
Traditional question.
按惯例再问一个吧。
P03430:04
Blayne CurtisAnalyst, Jefferies
No, I was going to give another one because that was short answer. Just one clarification quickly. The Google number you gave, and then you said 10 gigawatts for Anthropic. It's not one number, right? The 10 gigawatts is just for Anthropic?
好的,因为刚才的回答很简短,我想再追问一个问题。只是快速确认一下:您刚才给出了谷歌的相关规模,然后又提到 Anthropic 有 10 吉瓦。这两个不是合并在一起的同一个数字,对吧?那 10 吉瓦仅仅是面向 Anthropic 的吗?
P03530:18
Hock TanPresident and CEO
10 gigawatts is just for Anthropic.
那 10 吉瓦仅仅是面向 Anthropic 的。
P03630:24
Blayne CurtisAnalyst, Jefferies
Thanks, Hock.
谢谢你,Hock。
P03730:26
Operator
One moment for our next question. That will come from the line of Harlan Sur with JPMorgan. Your line is open.
请稍候,我们接听下一个问题。下一个问题来自摩根大通的 Harlan Sur。您的线路已接通。
P03830:35
Harlan SurAnalyst, JPMorgan
Yeah. Good afternoon. Thanks for taking my question. Hock, your customers are driving their XPUs, their GPUs higher in performance. The networking bandwidth is also scaling accordingly, right? Your customers are now moving from 100 gigabits per second per lane to 200 gigabits per second per lane, from Tomahawk 5 to Tomahawk 6. We have heard that Tomahawk 6 ramp has been the fastest ramp of any of your switching families. We have also heard that you guys are almost sold out for Tomahawk 6 for next year. I am not sure if you can give us an update on that. It is also good to see the team kicked out its next-gen Tomahawk 7 with 200 gig SERDES. Out of your six frontier model-based XPU customers, how many of them are using Tomahawk scale-out networking?
好的,下午好,感谢接受我的提问。Hock,你们的客户正在不断提升其 XPU 和 GPU 的性能,网络带宽也在相应地同步扩展,对吧?你们的客户目前正从单通道每秒 100G 升级到单通道每秒 200G,从 Tomahawk 5 升级到 Tomahawk 6。我们听说 Tomahawk 6 的放量速度是你们所有交换机产品系列中最快的,而且听说你们明年的 Tomahawk 6 产能几乎已经售罄。不确定您能否就此提供一些最新进展?同时很高兴看到团队完成了搭载 200G SerDes 的下一代 Tomahawk 7 的流片。在你们的 6 家前沿模型 XPU 客户中,有多少家正在使用 Tomahawk 横向扩展(scale-out)网络?
P03931:22
Can you also just give us an update on the adoption of your Tomahawk Ultra scale-up platform as well?
另外,您能否也介绍一下 Tomahawk Ultra 纵向扩展(scale-up)平台的采用情况?
P04031:29
Hock TanPresident and CEO
Charlie will take this question. He knows everything here.
这个问题由 Charlie 来回答,他对这块了如指掌。
P04131:33
Charlie KawwasPresident of Semiconductor Solutions Group
Thank you, Hock. Thanks, Harlan, as well. You are right. Our Tomahawk 6 has been a phenomenal success. It started, really first in scale-out, as you mentioned. It is available both in 100 gig and 200 gig SERDES. So we actually have two versions of Tomahawk 6. Both are very successful, and both are deployed in pretty much all of the AI hyperscalers that are building XPUs with us, and even those that are not using our XPUs are using the Tomahawk 6, both 100 gig and 200 gig. With respect to Tomahawk Ultra, we have quite innovated ahead of the market here by enabling scale-up using low latency Ethernet.
谢谢 Hock,也谢谢 Harlan。你说得没错,我们的 Tomahawk 6 取得了巨大的成功。正如你所提到的,它最初主要应用于横向扩展(scale-out)场景。它同时提供 100G 和 200G SerDes 两个版本,所以我们实际上有 2 个版本的 Tomahawk 6。两个版本都非常成功,而且几乎部署在所有与我们合作开发 XPU 的 AI 超大规模云厂商中;甚至那些没有使用我们 XPU 的客户,也都在使用 100G 和 200G 版本的 Tomahawk 6。至于 Tomahawk Ultra,我们通过支持使用低延迟以太网进行纵向扩展(scale-up),在市场上实现了显著的超前创新。
P04232:23
The adoption also on this device has surprised us, and we are starting to see it deployed, starting actually this quarter and in FY 2027, coming up in scale-up applications.
这款产品的采用速度也超出了我们的预期,我们看到它实际上从本季度就开始投入部署,并将在即将到来的 2027 财年广泛应用于纵向扩展(scale-up)场景。
P04332:37
Hock TanPresident and CEO
Just to amplify what Charlie is saying with Tomahawk Ultra, is that we are enabling now scaling up within cluster of a GPU, XPU in a rack on basically Ethernet for the first time. Tomahawk Ultra will perform just as well as anything else that exists prior to that, before being able to do it on Ethernet, particularly with respect to loss and latency.
我再补充强调一下 Charlie 关于 Tomahawk Ultra 的发言:我们现在首次实现了完全基于以太网在机柜内部的 GPU 或 XPU 集群中进行纵向扩展(scale-up)。Tomahawk Ultra 的表现足以媲美在此之前未能基于以太网实现的任何既有方案,特别是在丢包率和延迟指标上。
P04433:17
Charlie KawwasPresident of Semiconductor Solutions Group
Yeah.
是的。
P04533:20
Harlan SurAnalyst, JPMorgan
Thanks, Charlie. Thanks, Hock.
谢谢 Charlie,谢谢 Hock。
P04633:23
Operator
One moment for our next question. That will come from the line of Stacy Rasgon with Bernstein. Your line is open.
请稍候,我们接听下一个问题。下一个问题来自 Bernstein 的 Stacy Rasgon。您的线路已接通。
P04733:32
Stacy RasgonAnalyst, Bernstein
Hi, guys. Thanks for taking my questions. I just wanted to verify, if I add up the gigawatts for 2027 and 2028 you have lined, I am still getting roughly 10 for 2027, about six of which are Anthropic and OpenAI, and roughly 20 for 2028, roughly 15 of which are Anthropic and OpenAI. I just want to make sure that was the case. If it is, if I sort of calculate the revenue per gigawatt, I come out with your revenue guides, I come out somewhere between $11 billion and $12 billion per gigawatt. I mean, your competitor suggested something like 40. I am just wondering, is this the right level that we should think about, for your content is, and how should that, I guess, trend as we go forward, as you said, into more generations of XPUs, again, with higher performance and higher memory, how do those trend?
大家好,感谢接受我的提问。我只是想核实一下:如果把你们刚才列出的 2027 年和 2028 年各客户的吉瓦数加总起来,我算出来 2027 年大约还是 10 吉瓦(其中约 6 吉瓦来自 Anthropic 和 OpenAI),而 2028 年大约是 20 吉瓦(其中约 15 吉瓦来自 Anthropic 和 OpenAI)。我只是想确认情况是否如此。如果是这样的话,如果我结合你们给出的营收指引来测算每吉瓦对应的营收,得出的结果大约在每吉瓦 110 亿到 120 亿美元之间。而你们的竞争对手给出的数字大约是 400 亿美元左右。我只是想知道,这是否就是我们应该用来理解你们单吉瓦价值量的合理水平?此外,正如您刚才所说,随着未来演进到更多代性能更高、内存更大的 XPU,这一指标的趋势会如何变化?
P04834:21
I guess, first, just the gigawatt count and second, the content.
简单来说,第一是确认吉瓦总数,第二是每吉瓦的价值量。
P04934:26
Hock TanPresident and CEO
Right. Stacy, you are very clever. You put two tricky questions into one. Let me take it. Let me parse it one by one. Yes, you can count the number of gigawatts we are outlining. Not every one, because we have focused on. To be fair, we have six customers. Four of them are just simply going to be huge. We outline, and we walk through with you guys their journey into deploying XPUs. As I said, it is a journey. Google has been doing it for the last 10 years. Others, OpenAI, last two, three years. Meta, last three years. Each one is doing it differently, and we like to take you guys through it. More importantly, what it means in their deployment at XPU for these three years, 2026, 2027, 2028. We lay down and you are right, Stacy. You add up the gigawatts.
好的。Stacy,你非常聪明,把两个很巧妙的问题合在了一起。让我来接招,我们逐一拆解。是的,你可以把我们刚才列出的吉瓦数加总起来——虽然我们并没有列出每一家客户的全部数字,因为我们重点介绍的是核心部分。平心而论,我们共有 6 家客户,其中 4 家未来的规模将会极其庞大。我们梳理并向各位展示了他们部署 XPU 的演进历程。正如我所说,这是一个演进的过程:谷歌已经做了 10 年;其他客户比如 OpenAI 做了 2 到 3 年,Meta 做了 3 年。每家客户的推进方式都不尽相同,我们希望带各位理清这一脉络,更重要的是说明这意味着他们在 2026、2027、2028 这 3 年里的 XPU 部署规模。我们列出了这些数字,而且你说得没错,Stacy,你可以把这些吉瓦数加起来。
P05035:31
We are showing where they are headed. What we didn't tell you specifically when we came up to the final number is how many of these gigawatts do actually come up for actual deployment, because deployment doesn't just include getting the chips out there. Before you get the chips out there, you got to get the data center shell in place and ready for literary production. We are talking about fiscal years. What we are saying is as you add up the gigawatts, we are not saying that over the next two years, 2027, 2028, that there are 30 gigawatts that will go into production and therefore we ship it.
我们展示的是他们的发展方向。但在得出最终营收预测数字时,我们没有具体展开说明的一点是:在这些规划的吉瓦数中,有多少会实际落地并完成部署?因为实际部署不仅仅取决于把芯片生产出来,在把芯片运过去之前,客户必须先把数据中心机房外壳(shell)建设到位并具备投产条件。而且我们讨论的是特定的财年口径。所以我们的意思是,当你把这些吉瓦数加总时,我们并不是说在 2027 和 2028 这 2 年内,全部 30 吉瓦都会投入生产并由我们完成芯片出货。
P05136:14
We think we judge it conservatively to be somewhat less, but we see the demand that if they can get it all in place and our products and we can ship those chips racks in place. It will be 30 gigawatts between the customers we have, the six customers we have. Question is, will all 30 come into production within these two fiscal years? We are giving you a judged number of $115 billion of chips to these guys in FY 2027, another $230 billion in FY 2028, which would add up, I know, to about $350 billion. So another way of saying is, we believe with a pretty high degree of confidence, we will ship $350 billion of AI semiconductors to these customers in the next two years. That's the best way to look at it.
我们对此采取了保守的审慎评估,认为实际落地规模会略低于这一总数;但从需求端来看,如果他们能够把所有配套都落实到位,并且我们的产品和芯片机柜也能全部出货到位,那么在我们现有的 6 家客户之间,总规模确实高达 30 吉瓦。问题在于,这 30 吉瓦能否全部在这 2 个财年内投产?因此,我们给出了经过审慎判断的数字:在 2027 财年向这些客户出货 1,150 亿美元的芯片,在 2028 财年再出货 2,300 亿美元,这两年加起来我算了一下大约是 3,500 亿美元(注:1,150 + 2,300 = 3,450 亿美元,口语取整为约 3,500 亿美元)。换句话说,我们有相当高的把握相信,未来 2 年我们将向这些客户出货约 3,500 亿美元的 AI 半导体。这是理解这一问题的最佳方式。
P05237:24
It doesn't necessarily mean all 30 gigawatts need to have been deployed within that period. Turning to your more next interesting question. As I said, when you do an XPU, it not only performs as well if not better for your particular LLM workloads for each of our customers, it's also half the cost. In fact, less than half the cost. That's, you made my point exactly.
这并不一定意味着全部 30 吉瓦都必须在这段时间内完成部署。再来看你提出的下一个更有意思的问题。正如我所说,当你采用定制 XPU 时,针对我们每家客户特定的大语言模型(LLM)工作负载,它的性能不仅足以媲美甚至超越通用芯片,而且成本只有后者的一半(50%),事实上甚至不到一半。所以你的测算正好印证了我的观点。
被引用:↩ FY2026Q3 电话会解析 · 问答解析 · Stacy Rasgon(Bernstein):30 吉瓦客户规划与 3,500 亿美元芯片营收的勾稽及单吉瓦价值量↩ 云三强一年砸 6,000 亿建算力:用同一把尺子量,谁的投入回本最快? · 多方原话交锋与验真标尺 · 对质二:自研芯片能省多少?——结论:省钱的说法都来自卖方或自用方,可核对的只有亚马逊的“客户省了 20 亿美元”↩ 年砸 6,000 亿美金的算力豪赌:云三强烧穿自由现金流、集体举债,谁最先跑通真金白银的正循环? · 核心判断↩ 年砸 6,000 亿美金的算力豪赌:云三强烧穿自由现金流、集体举债,谁最先跑通真金白银的正循环? · 底层逻辑与关键账本 · 表二:上游芯片(AVGO/NVDA)交叉对账、单吉瓦(GW)算力物理经济账与 2027 折旧/净现金底牌↩ 年砸 6,000 亿美金的算力豪赌:云三强烧穿自由现金流、集体举债,谁最先跑通真金白银的正循环? · 核心争议拆解 · 争议一:联立上游博通/英伟达账本与滞后本金,谁的真实算力增量 ROIC 最高?——结论:谷歌(31.5%)靠半价 TPU 夺冠,亚马逊(27.1%)居次,微软(18.2%)垫底↩ 年砸 6,000 亿美金的算力豪赌:云三强烧穿自由现金流、集体举债,谁最先跑通真金白银的正循环? · 多方原话交锋与验真标尺 · 对质二:自研芯片能不能扛住硬件涨价与折旧?——结论:博通实锤“定制 XPU 成本不到 GPU 一半”,谷歌与亚马逊享自研红利,微软硬扛存储与 GPU 涨价↩ 年砸 6,000 亿美金的算力豪赌:云三强烧穿自由现金流、集体举债,谁最先跑通真金白银的正循环? · 外部一手资料与产业链引用记录
P05338:01
Operator
Thank you. One moment for our next question. That will come from the line of Ben Reitzes with Melius. Your line is open.
谢谢。请稍候,我们接听下一个问题。下一个问题来自 Melius 的 Ben Reitzes。您的线路已接通。
P05438:11
Jack AdairAnalyst, Melius
Hi, this is Jack Adair on for Ben. Thank you for the question. Could you shed a little bit more light on the maximum off-balance sheet risk for the backstop agreements? Your last Q showed that the first tranche had maximum exposure of about $29 billion. Is this about the order of magnitude for each of the Anthropic and OpenAI gigawatts over the next few years? Could you add a little bit more color as well on the residual value and the risk associated? Thank you.
大家好,我是代表 Ben 提问的 Jack Adair。感谢接受我的提问。您能否进一步透露一下担保支持协议(backstop agreements)在资产负债表外的最大风险敞口?你们上一季度的 10-Q 报告显示,首期项目的最大风险敞口约为 290 亿美元。未来几年里,面向 Anthropic 和 OpenAI 的每一个吉瓦项目,其风险敞口大致也是这个数量级吗?另外,关于残值担保及其相关风险,能否再补充一些细节?谢谢。
P05538:43
Amie ThuenerCFO
Thanks, Jack. Listen, we do not have anything to announce today on residual value guarantees or backstops, so there is nothing new to add. The numbers that you outlined around what we have already done remain true. As I mentioned in my prepared remarks, we are going to evaluate any strategic financing really on a deal-by-deal basis. We expect that any that we do in the future, they are going to have unique features, and they are going to be tailored specifically to the lab and to the investor needs. I cannot give you an overarching look at what is the max and what each one is going to look like. But we will tell you at the right time, we have nothing to announce today.
谢谢你,Jack。听着,今天我们关于残值担保或担保支持没有任何新的内容要宣布,因此没有新的信息可以补充。你刚才提到的关于我们已签署项目的那些数字依然属实。正如我在管理层陈述中所说的,我们将完全按照逐笔交易(deal-by-deal)的方式来评估任何战略性融资安排。我们预计未来开展的任何项目都将具备独特的条款设计,并将专门针对特定实验室和投资者的需求量身定制。因此,我无法向你提供一个关于最大总额或每个项目具体形态的笼统数字。我们会在合适的时间向大家披露,今天没有任何新事项要宣布。
被引用:↩ 基本面档案 · 主要风险 · XPV 算力融资平台的表外残值担保与信用敞口↩ FY2026Q3 季度复盘 · 结论摘要↩ FY2026Q3 季度复盘 · 电话会要点 · 管理层情绪与问答焦点↩ FY2026Q3 季度复盘 · 叙事 vs 报表↩ FY2026Q3 季度复盘 · 对投资逻辑的影响↩ FY2026Q3 老唐风格精评 · 三、显微镜看两大异动:一边扩产关键零件,一边拉着华尔街给客户搭台借钱买卡↩ FY2026Q3 电话会解析 · 问答解析 · Jack Adair(Melius):AI XPU 融资平台表外残值担保的最大风险敞口↩ 年砸 6,000 亿美金的算力豪赌:云三强烧穿自由现金流、集体举债,谁最先跑通真金白银的正循环? · 底层逻辑与关键账本 · 表二:上游芯片(AVGO/NVDA)交叉对账、单吉瓦(GW)算力物理经济账与 2027 折旧/净现金底牌↩ 年砸 6,000 亿美金的算力豪赌:云三强烧穿自由现金流、集体举债,谁最先跑通真金白银的正循环? · 核心争议拆解 · 争议二:剥离 OpenAI 与 Anthropic 关联长单后,1.83 万亿 RPO 谁的成色最硬?——结论:亚马逊 81% 原生企业云最稳,谷歌借甲骨文/黑石外溢,微软遭 OpenAI 自研芯片反噬↩ 年砸 6,000 亿美金的算力豪赌:云三强烧穿自由现金流、集体举债,谁最先跑通真金白银的正循环? · 多方原话交锋与验真标尺 · 未来 2–4 个季度检验上述推演模型的四大定量标尺
P05739:37
Operator
Thank you. One moment for our next question. That will come from the line of Vivek Arya with Bank of America. Your line is open.
谢谢。请稍候,我们接听下一个问题。下一个问题来自美国银行的 Vivek Arya。您的线路已接通。
P05839:45
Vivek AryaAnalyst, Bank of America
Thanks for taking my question. Amy, I just wanted to clarify any impact on gross margins in 2027 and 2028, given this XPU mix and rise in memory cost. Hock, you mentioned the two frontier labs will be your largest AI customers. Even though Google continues to say they are supply constrained, so why are not they taking more? In many cases, these frontier labs depend on land, power, shell from their cloud service providers, sometimes NVIDIA-related entities. So how much of their use of silicon is truly their choice versus what their CSP or funding partner dictates? I am just curious, what gives you the certainty that they will give Broadcom that specific business in 2027 or 2028 when so much of their funding depends on other cloud service providers who might have a different view when it comes to the choice of silicon in that specific facility?
感谢接受我的提问。Amie(注:原文误作 Amy),考虑到 XPU 占比上升以及内存成本上涨,我只是想确认一下这对 2027 年和 2028 年的毛利率会产生什么影响。另外请问 Hock,您提到那两家前沿实验室将成为你们最大的 AI 客户。但即便谷歌一直在说他们处于供给受限状态,为什么谷歌没有拿更多的份额呢?而且在很多情况下,这些前沿实验室依赖其云服务提供商(有时甚至是与英伟达相关的实体)来提供土地、电力和机房外壳(land, power, shell)。那么,他们在芯片选择上究竟有多大程度是真正自主决定的,又有多少是由其云服务提供商或出资合作方决定的?我只是好奇,当他们的资金在很大程度上依赖于其他可能对特定机房内的芯片选择持有不同看法的云服务提供商时,是什么让您确信他们会在 2027 年或 2028 年把那些业务交给博通?
P05940:44
Hock TanPresident and CEO
I know. The best way to answer that, a couple of ways I have of answering that and a couple of points. Don't forget with the rate of growth, these startups, and we're talking about we have six customers, and we are creating these financial vehicles, as Amy described them, for just two of them. Not all. The other four customers are financially secure, stable enough to be able to fund it themselves. And we're happy for them to do that and get them up to where they need to with sheer technology which we have in plentiful supply. With these two guys, Anthropic and OpenAI, you have two geniuses in the middle of outer Mongolia, say, and they need to go to college to fulfill where they want to.
我理解。回答这个问题最好的方式,可以从几个角度、分成几点来说。首先别忘了,在如此高的增速下,我们共有 6 家客户,而正如 Amie(注:原文误作 Amy)所描述的,我们仅仅是在为其中 2 家初创实验室搭建这类金融工具,而不是全部 6 家。另外 4 家客户的财务状况非常稳健、资金充裕,完全有能力自行出资建设。我们非常乐意看到他们自己出资,并凭借我们充足供应的领先技术支持他们达到目标规模。而对于 Anthropic 和 OpenAI 这 2 家客户——打个比方,就好比在偏远的外蒙古草原上有 2 个天才少年,他们需要一笔学费去上大学,才能实现自己的抱负。
P06041:51
We do what we can to help them, and part of it is creating sources of financing to help these companies with the leading-edge frontier models in the world be able to play in the same playing field and be able to offer these great technology products to the world. And that's simply what we're doing. It's a great investment for us when you think about it, that every gigawatt of compute they deploy, they could achieve $30 billion of ARR, annual revenue per gigawatt. That's a hell of a business model. So for us, that's a great investment to focus on doing. To put that simply, that's how we look at this simple thing. It makes economic sense for Broadcom to invest and enable these guys. Now, these guys are going to be hyperscalers in their own right.
因此我们尽己所能去支持他们,其中一部分举措就是帮助开辟融资渠道,使这些拥有全球最顶尖前沿模型的公司能够在同一个竞技场上同台竞技,并向全世界提供这些卓越的技术产品。我们做的事情就这么简单。仔细算一笔账就会发现,这对我们而言是一笔极佳的投资:他们每部署 1 吉瓦的算力,就能创造高达 300 亿美元的年度经常性收入(ARR),即每吉瓦对应 300 亿美元年化收入。这是一个极其惊人的商业模式。因此对我们来说,这绝对是值得重点投入的优质项目。简单来说,这就是我们看待这件事情的逻辑——通过投资去赋能这些客户,对博通而言在经济上完全合算。而且,这些客户本身也正在成长为名副其实的超大规模云厂商(hyperscalers)。
P06142:57
So what they do is they want first party compute capacity, just as they want to create silicon that is very cost performance optimized, and they want to run their own data centers eventually first path, not even eventually, they want to run it as fast as they can. Short term, you're right. They are using cloud services, third party services to deploy their models. Long term, we see these guys to be no different from a hyperscaler and will run their own data centers and be first party to offer AI, generative AI, APIs, assess models to the world. So we see that happening. It's not speculation, it's actually happening, and we are in the midst of enabling that.
所以他们的诉求是拥有第一方(自有)算力容量,正如他们希望打造极致性价比优化的定制芯片一样,他们最终——甚至不是最终,而是希望尽可能快地——自己运营数据中心。从短期来看,你说得没错,他们确实在使用第三方云服务来部署模型。但从长期来看,我们认为这些厂商将与传统的超大规模云厂商毫无二致,他们将运营自己的数据中心,并作为第一方平台向全世界提供 AI、生成式 AI、API 及 SaaS(注:原文误作 assess)模型服务。我们看到这一幕正在发生,这不是凭空猜测,而是正在发生的事实,而我们正在全力促成这一转变。
P06243:56
Amie ThuenerCFO
I'm happy to take your gross margin question. First, I want to just make sure I correct what I said before, just to be super crisp. Gross margin for our Semiconductor Solutions segment was approximately 67% in Q3. To your question, gross margin really reflects revenue mix between both semiconductors and infrastructure software. And then within semiconductors, the product mix is reflected, as well as increasing memory content. As XPUs become a larger proportion of our total revenue mix, it impacts our margin. We guide one quarter at a time, so we'll tell you each quarter what our margin's going to look like.
我很乐意回答你关于毛利率的问题。首先,为了确保数据绝对准确,我想先更正一下刚才口误说错的一个数字:第三季度我们半导体解决方案分部的毛利率约为 67%(注:管理层陈述 P017 中口误说成了 76%)。回到你的问题,合并毛利率主要反映了半导体与基础设施软件之间的营收结构;而在半导体业务内部,则反映了产品组合以及不断上升的内存含量。随着 XPU 在我们总营收组合中的占比越来越大,它确实会对毛利率产生摊薄影响。不过我们每次只提供 1 个季度的指引,因此我们会在每个季度向大家说明当季的毛利率预期。
P06344:43
Hock TanPresident and CEO
Yeah. It is not the first time we have told you guys that, because stop focusing on gross margin. It is what we are saying. Look at methods, operating margin at the end of the day. Because the growth in revenue far surpasses their growth in OPEX, operating spending to support their growth in revenue. So we have a lot of accretion, operating leverage, we call it, on operating margin. So we expect to be able to sustain operating margin even as mix of products dilutes the gross margin.
是的。这也不是我们第 1 次跟各位强调这一点了——请不要再过度纠结于毛利率了,这就是想传达的核心意思。归根结底要看的是营业利润率。因为营收的增长速度远远超过了为支持营收增长所需的营业费用(OPEX)增速。因此我们在营业利润率上拥有可观的利润增益,也就是我们常说的经营杠杆。所以即便产品组合变化摊薄了毛利率,我们预计依然能够保持稳健的营业利润率。
P06445:27
Operator
Thank you. One moment for our next question. That will come from the line of Tom O'Malley with Barclays. Your line is open.
谢谢。请稍候,我们接听下一个问题。下一个问题来自巴克莱的 Tom OMalley。您的线路已接通。
P06545:37
Tom O'MalleyAnalyst, Barclays
Thanks for taking the question. This one is for Hock and Charlie. You guys talked a bit about the Tomahawk Ultra. You are ramping a variety of ASICs over the next couple of years. How should we think about the attach rate of Tomahawk Ultra to the ASICs that you are developing? I would assume that, when a customer goes down the road with you for an ASIC, they would decide to use your networking as well. Maybe some kind of forecast as to how many of those customers are using your Tomahawk Ultra, how many are using Ethernet, just because I assume your penetration with your accelerators is going to lead to a lot of success on the networking side. Any help there would be great. Thank you.
感谢接受提问。这个问题想请教 Hock 和 Charlie。你们刚才谈到了 Tomahawk Ultra。未来几年你们将放量多款定制 ASIC。我们应该如何看待 Tomahawk Ultra 在你们所开发的 ASIC 中的配套搭载率(attach rate)?我猜想,当客户决定与你们合作开发定制 ASIC 时,他们理应也会选择搭配你们的网络产品。能否给出一些预测,比如在这些客户中有多少家正在使用你们的 Tomahawk Ultra、有多少家在使用以太网?因为我推测你们在加速芯片上的渗透率必然会带动网络业务取得巨大成功。如果能提供这方面的信息将非常有帮助,谢谢。
P06646:09
Hock TanPresident and CEO
Go ahead, Charlie.
请讲,Charlie。
P06746:10
Charlie KawwasPresident of Semiconductor Solutions Group
Okay. Thank you, Hock. On the attach rate for scale up, today we are actually seeing customers who build XPUs with us deploy either Tomahawk 6, they used to deploy Tomahawk 5, now they are going to Tomahawk 6, and some of them are going to Tomahawk Ultra. If you look at where we are seeing XPUs and even GPUs, we are seeing scale-up solutions adopt both Tomahawk 6 and Tomahawk Ultra. The beauty and the reason why they are doing this, as Hock articulated earlier on, it is Ethernet based, which means it is open. Anybody can connect to it, especially with the standards that we have collaborated with the entire industry on. At this point in time, we are seeing it pretty much deployed in both XPU clusters and in some GPU clusters.
好的,谢谢 Hock。关于纵向扩展(scale up)的配套率,目前我们看到与我们合作开发 XPU 的客户,都在部署 Tomahawk 6(他们过去部署的是 Tomahawk 5,现在正升级到 Tomahawk 6),而且其中一部分客户正在转向部署 Tomahawk Ultra。如果看整个 XPU 乃至 GPU 市场,我们看到纵向扩展方案正在同时采用 Tomahawk 6 和 Tomahawk Ultra。客户之所以这样做,其核心优势和原因正如 Hock 刚才所阐述的:它是基于以太网的,这意味着它是开放标准,任何设备都可以接入,尤其是结合了我们与整个行业共同制定的开放标准。因此在当前时点,我们看到它已经广泛部署在各类 XPU 集群以及部分 GPU 集群中。
P06847:11
Operator
Thank you. One moment for our next question. That will come from the line of Will Stein with Truist Securities. Your line is open.
谢谢。请稍候,我们接听下一个问题。下一个问题来自 Truist Securities 的 Will Stein。您的线路已接通。
P06947:21
Will SteinAnalyst, Truist Securities
Great. Thanks for taking my question. Congrats on the good results and the very impressive longer term outlook you gave. Hock, I hope you can tell us a little about the constraints as it relates to land, power, and shell. You mentioned this a little earlier, but I wonder to what degree the outlook is sensitized to potential constraints in that area. Thank you.
太好了,感谢接受我的提问。祝贺你们取得优异的业绩,并给出了令人印象极为深刻的长期展望。Hock,希望您能谈谈与土地、电力和机房外壳(land, power, and shell)相关的制约因素。您刚才稍微提到了一点,但我很想知道你们给出的业绩展望在多大程度上已经考虑了对这些领域潜在制约因素的敏感性分析?谢谢。
P07047:47
Hock TanPresident and CEO
Good question, Will. Of course, we have to be realistic and when we provide our outlook, we not just look at what our end customer, one of those L Frontier models, just asks of us for compute capacity in the form of chips or in some cases even in form of racks. We are very engaged with each of them on how much LPS, land, power, and systems they have before we actually believe it will happen. This part on sites power shell has a long lead time. The construction project, you correctly indicate that. We do that. We do that, not development, but analysis with our customer, and we reflect that in the forecast outlook we are giving you today.
好问题,Will。当然,我们必须保持务实。当我们提供业绩展望时,我们绝不仅仅是看终端客户(即那些前沿大模型厂商)向我们提出了多少芯片或机柜形式的算力容量需求。在真正相信这些需求能够如期落地之前,我们会与每一家客户深入核实他们手里到底落实了多少 LPS——即土地、电力和系统配套(land, power, and systems)。站点、电力和机房外壳这一环需要很长的提前期;正如你准确指出的,那是实打实的工程建设项目。因此我们不会盲目预测,而是会与客户一起对这些配套条件进行深入分析,并将分析结果充分反映在我们今天向各位提供的展望指引中。
P07148:56
Will SteinAnalyst, Truist Securities
Thank you.
谢谢。
P07248:58
Operator
Thank you. One moment for our next question, and that will come from the line of Joshua Buchalter with TD Cowen. Your line is open.
谢谢。请稍候,我们接听下一个问题。下一个问题来自 TD Cowen 的 Joshua Buchalter。您的线路已接通。
P07349:07
Joshua BuchalterAnalyst, TD Cowen
Hey, guys. Thank you for taking my question. With XPU, I think you have $35 billion of the financing secured. As we think about the 10 gigawatts for Anthropic and the 5 for OpenAI in fiscal 2028, are you expecting most or all of this to be financed through the XPU? Can you give us any help on the timeline and hurdles required to secure financing as we look forward to those deployments getting secured? Thank you.
大家好,感谢接受我的提问。在 XPU 融资平台方面,我记得你们已经锁定了首期 350 亿美元的融资。当我们展望 2028 财年面向 Anthropic 的 10 吉瓦和面向 OpenAI 的 5 吉瓦部署时,你们是否预计其中绝大部分甚至全部都将通过该 XPU 平台进行融资?随着这些部署逐步推进落实,您能否介绍一下锁定后续融资的时间表以及需要跨过的门槛?谢谢。
P07449:34
Hock TanPresident and CEO
Let me start broadly, and Amy will give you specifics. Not every site will be the same, because don't forget, next 2 years, we'll see things happen with Anthropic and OpenAI. It's an open secret, Anthropic is well on its way to an IPO, and with that, its investment credit will change. OpenAI, we still don't have less clarity, but it's different. With that, let me pass it to Amy.
我先从宏观层面谈谈,然后再由 Amie(注:原文误作 Amy)补充细节。并不是每一个数据中心站点的情况都完全一样,因为别忘了,在接下来的 2 年里,Anthropic 和 OpenAI 自身也会发生很大的变化。有一个公开的秘密是,Anthropic 正稳步推进首次公开募股(IPO),一旦完成上市,它的投资信用状况就会发生改变。至于 OpenAI,虽然目前的明朗度相对低一些,但情况也在变化。下面我把话筒交给 Amie(注:原文误作 Amy)。
P07550:07
Amie ThuenerCFO
I think just to double down on that, I think in every scenario, our partners were going to be looking for financing from lots of different sources. In some cases, we may step in and help out if it makes sense to us and if it's within our framework. In other cases, we may not. But we're going to look at it case by case and evaluate the specific needs.
我想进一步补充的是,在任何情况下,我们的合作伙伴都会从多种不同的渠道寻找融资。在某些情况下,如果对我们而言合理且符合我们的资本框架,我们可能会介入并提供协助;而在其他情况下,我们则未必需要介入。因此,我们会按具体项目逐一审视(case by case),并根据具体需求进行评估。
P07650:32
Joshua BuchalterAnalyst, TD Cowen
Thank you both.
感谢二位。
P07750:34
Operator
One moment for our next question. That will come from the line of James Schneider with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.
请稍候,我们接听下一个问题。下一个问题来自高盛的 James Schneider。您的线路已接通。
P07850:42
Jim SchneiderAnalyst, Goldman Sachs
Thanks for taking my question. I was wondering if you could maybe address some of the other constraints that are impacting your outlook. You mentioned land, power, shell. Do you think that is the largest of the constraints that you face heading into fiscal 2027? Specifically, can you address any other supply chain constraints, whether it be memory, substrates, or other components that could be impacting your outlook, and to what extent you could expect those to get ameliorated? Thank you.
感谢接受我的提问。我想请教一下影响你们展望的其他一些制约因素。您刚才提到了土地、电力和机房外壳。在迈向 2027 财年的过程中,您认为这是你们面临的最大制约因素吗?具体而言,您能否谈谈还有哪些其他的供应链制约因素——无论是内存、基板还是其他组件——可能会影响你们的展望?您预计这些制约因素在多大程度上能够得到缓解?谢谢。
P07951:12
Hock TanPresident and CEO
Thank you, Jim. That's a hell of a question, and you're right in all counts. It's a multidimensional issue. To get an AI data center deployed, we now are all more sensitive about, especially at scale, and we are now delivering at scale to our customers XPUs, AI data center built upon XPU computing accelerators. Land, power, and shell, as I indicated to a question with Will, is a big concern. More than a big concern, it dictates specific timing of when this capacity gets deployed and be available. But very much in the mix that we have to think about with our customers, and it's a joint collaborative effort, not just one direction, is, you said it correctly, leading-edge silicon. Because for one, to get the chip produced and availability of those chips and the time it comes in.
谢谢你,Jim。这个问题问得非常到位,而且你提到的每一条都说到了点子上。这是一个多维度交织的问题。要真正把一座 AI 数据中心部署上线——尤其是现在我们要向客户规模化交付基于 XPU 计算加速器的 AI 数据中心——我们对各个环节都更加敏感。正如我刚才回答 Will 的问题时所指出的,土地、电力和机房外壳是一个重大的关注点;它不仅是一个重大关注点,更直接决定了这些算力容量何时能够真正部署到位并投入使用。但与此同时,我们必须与客户共同筹划、双向协同解决的另一个关键环节,正如你准确指出的,就是前沿工艺硅片(leading-edge silicon)——因为这直接关系到芯片能否按时生产出来以及交付的节奏。
P08052:27
Even deeper than that, we talk about substrates, which is a specific issue, which is leading us to build our own substrate capacity at scale in our factory in Singapore, jointly with one of our partners. Of course, we all know about memory, HBM memory, and beyond HBM memory, the system memory that goes into AI servers, which we don't supply necessarily, but our customers have to secure, too. So all these are multidimensional problem coming from various sources, and depending on different times, each might become a bottleneck. It's a constant interesting challenge as we work this through, which is why in some ways, I'm so glad we have only six customers to deal with.
再往深一层看,还有基板(substrates)这一具体瓶颈,这也正是促使我们与合作伙伴携手在新加坡工厂自建规模化基板产能的原因。当然,大家都知道的还有内存,包括高带宽内存(HBM),以及 HBM 之外装入 AI 服务器的系统内存——虽然系统内存不一定由我们直接供应,但我们的客户同样必须确保其供应到位。因此,所有这些都是来自不同源头的多维度挑战,在不同的时间节点上,其中任何一个环节都可能成为瓶颈。在我们推进交付的过程中,这是一个持续存在且颇具挑战性的课题;从某种意义上说,也正因如此,我很庆幸我们只需要集中精力服务好这 6 家客户。
P08153:26
Operator
Thank you. Our next question, that will come from the line of Vijay Rakesh with Mizuho. Your line is open.
谢谢。我们的下一个问题来自瑞穗(Mizuho)的 Vijay Rakesh。您的线路已接通。
P08253:34
Vijay RakeshAnalyst, Mizuho
Yeah. Hi. Thanks, Hock and Amy. Just a quick question. Thanks for giving the visibility on FY 2027 and FY 2028 AI revenues. Just a quick question. As you go through subsequent generations of XPU, can you talk to how your dollar per gigawatt should improve into the subsequent XPU generations? Also, I saw your CapEx went up. Just wondering if you're adding capacity on the EML CW indium phosphide side. Thanks.
好的,Hock 和 Amie(注:原文误作 Amy)你们好,非常感谢。感谢你们给出了对 2027 财年和 2028 财年 AI 营收的清晰展望。我只想快速请教一个问题:随着你们的 XPU 不断向后续代际演进,您能否谈谈每吉瓦对应的美元价值量在后续几代 XPU 中会如何提升?另外,我注意到你们的资本开支(CapEx)有所上升,想了解一下你们是否正在扩充 EML、CW 激光器及磷化铟(indium phosphide)方面的产能?谢谢。
P08354:08
Hock TanPresident and CEO
Well, Charlie, you want to take the CapEx issue particularly?
Charlie,要不你先专门回答一下资本开支这个问题?
P08454:12
Charlie KawwasPresident of Semiconductor Solutions Group
On the CapEx side, as we have been sharing with you, Hock and I, for several quarters, we continue to invest in our factories. Substrate is what Hock talked about, which was actually going in production shortly. But also our EML CW and VCSEL factories, our indium phosphide factories, both in the U.S. as well as in Singapore, we are actually more than tripling them year-on-year. So we have already expanded the capacity for this year, and we are increasing it significantly for the next two years, and that is part of what you actually are seeing in CapEx.
在资本开支方面,正如 Hock 和我在过去几个季度一直与各位分享的,我们持续对自有工厂进行投资。Hock 刚才提到的基板工厂很快就要正式投产;此外,我们在美国和新加坡的 EML、CW 激光器及 VCSEL 工厂,也就是我们的磷化铟(indium phosphide)工厂,产能实际上正在同比翻 3 倍以上。我们已经扩充了今年的产能,并将在未来 2 年内继续大幅扩产,你们在资本开支中看到的增长有一部分正源于此。
P08554:50
Hock TanPresident and CEO
Yeah. And this one, I indicated in my remarks, too, which is demand for lasers, whether it is EML lasers, CW lasers, is far surpassing supply out there in the industry. So we are doing our part to double down actually on capacity, and with a fairly substantial share of this market. To us, in our interest, we enable this ecosystem of growth. On your earlier question of gigawatt, dollars per gigawatt, it is very interesting what you are saying. Because keep in mind something that is very interesting, too, which is, you are right. With every generation of XPU or GPU, the performance increases. And the silicon goes for the leading edge, more expensive to produce. And so ASPs go up per XPU and per GPU. But keep in mind, as they become higher performance, their power increase per chip, per XPU or GPU.
是的。这一点我在刚才的陈述中也提到过:目前市场上对激光器的需求——无论是 EML 激光器还是 CW 激光器——都远远超过了全行业的供应能力。因此我们正在尽自己的一份力量,实际上是在加倍扩充产能,并且我们在这一市场中占据着相当可观的份额。对我们而言,赋能这一生态系统的增长完全符合我们的自身利益。至于你前面提到的每吉瓦对应美元价值量的问题,你的观察非常有意思。因为有一点同样非常值得注意:你说得没错,随着 XPU 或 GPU 的每一代演进,芯片性能都会提升,而且由于采用了更先进的制程工艺,生产成本更高,因此单颗 XPU 和单颗 GPU 的平均售价(ASP)都会上涨。但请记住,随着性能大幅提升,单颗芯片(即单颗 XPU 或 GPU)的功耗也在随之上升。
P08656:13
Which means there are less of it of a more advanced XPU in one gigawatt. So what we are seeing per gigawatt is in the range of less than $30 billion, $20 billion-$30 billion per gigawatt. And we expect that to be very sustaining in that level because the power of each chip goes up. So even as increase the price of the chip, the content in dollars is relatively stable. Just accept the fact that there is going to be a lot more gigawatts out there. But the dollars per gigawatt will remain in the $20 billion-$30 billion level of our content. But we have seen, and we expect to see an acceleration in the number of gigawatts just to address the exponential compute demand required by our customers.
这意味着在 1 吉瓦的功耗预算内,所能容纳的更先进 XPU 的颗粒数变少了。因此,我们目前看到的每吉瓦价值量大约在不到 300 亿美元的范围内,即每吉瓦 200 亿至 300 亿美元之间。而且我们预计这一水平将保持得非常稳定,因为单颗芯片的功耗在上升,所以即便单颗芯片的价格上涨,每吉瓦对应的美元总价值量依然相对稳定。大家只需要认识到一个事实:未来部署的吉瓦总数将会增加得多得多。我们所占的每吉瓦美元价值量将维持在 200 亿至 300 亿美元的区间,但我们已经看到、并且预计将继续看到吉瓦总数的加速增长,唯有如此才能满足客户呈指数级增长的算力需求。
被引用:↩ 基本面档案 · 护城河与竞争格局↩ FY2026Q3 季度复盘 · 管理层口径变化↩ FY2026Q3 电话会解析 · 问答解析 · Vijay Rakesh(Mizuho):资本开支投向(激光器扩产)与每吉瓦芯片价值量的稳态区间↩ 云三强一年砸 6,000 亿建算力:用同一把尺子量,谁的投入回本最快? · 多方原话交锋与验真标尺 · 对质二:自研芯片能省多少?——结论:省钱的说法都来自卖方或自用方,可核对的只有亚马逊的“客户省了 20 亿美元”↩ 年砸 6,000 亿美金的算力豪赌:云三强烧穿自由现金流、集体举债,谁最先跑通真金白银的正循环? · 底层逻辑与关键账本 · 表二:上游芯片(AVGO/NVDA)交叉对账、单吉瓦(GW)算力物理经济账与 2027 折旧/净现金底牌↩ 年砸 6,000 亿美金的算力豪赌:云三强烧穿自由现金流、集体举债,谁最先跑通真金白银的正循环? · 核心争议拆解 · 争议一:联立上游博通/英伟达账本与滞后本金,谁的真实算力增量 ROIC 最高?——结论:谷歌(31.5%)靠半价 TPU 夺冠,亚马逊(27.1%)居次,微软(18.2%)垫底↩ 年砸 6,000 亿美金的算力豪赌:云三强烧穿自由现金流、集体举债,谁最先跑通真金白银的正循环? · 外部一手资料与产业链引用记录↩ 推理时代算力分流:定制 ASIC 与开放架构能不能抢走通用 GPU 的份额? · 技术路线与客户分单账本 · 表一:三强算力架构、机柜互联路线与单吉瓦经济账矩阵
P08757:16
Vijay RakeshAnalyst, Mizuho
Got it. Thanks. Very interesting, Hock and Charlie. Thank you.
明白了,谢谢。非常有意思,感谢 Hock 和 Charlie。
P08857:21
Operator
Thank you. That is all the time we have today for Q&A. I would now like to turn the call back over to GU for any closing remarks.
谢谢。今天的问答环节到此结束。我现在将电话转交给 Ji Yoo(注:原文误作 GU)做总结发言。
P08957:29
Ji YooHead of Investor Relations
Thank you, Cherie. This quarter, Broadcom will be presenting at the Goldman Sachs Communacopia & Technology Conference on Tuesday, September 8th. Broadcom currently plans to report its earnings for the fourth quarter and fiscal year 2026 after close of market on Wednesday, December 9th, 2026. A public webcast of Broadcom's earnings conference call will follow at 2:00 P.M. Pacific. That will conclude our earnings call today. Thank you all for joining. Cherie, you may end the call.
谢谢 Cherie。本季度,博通将于 9 月 8 日星期二出席高盛 Communacopia 与科技大会并发表演讲。博通目前计划于 2026 年 12 月 9 日星期三盘后公布其 2026 财年第四季度及全年业绩,随后将于太平洋时间下午 2:00 举行博通财报电话会的公开网络直播。今天的财报电话会到此结束。感谢各位的参与。Cherie,请结束本次电话会。
P09058:03
Operator
Thank you all for participating. This concludes today's program. You may now disconnect.
感谢各位的参与。今天的会议到此结束,现在可以挂断电话了。