◆finxyz
US 亚马逊 AMZN 切换 · 26
↑↓ 选择 Enter 打开 Esc 关闭 全部公司总览 →
松墨黄铜

亚马逊AMZN

NASDAQ 跟踪中 报表币种 USD · 财年截至 12 月 下次财报 2027-02-04(FY2026Q4) ⚖ 专题对比 · 云三强一年砸 6,000 亿建算力 ⚖ 专题对比 · 年砸 6,000 亿美金的算力豪赌
$245.63USD
2026-11-02 收盘价 · 非实时股价(行情取于 2026-11-03)
市值 2.65 万亿美元 · 表观市盈率(TTM)19.7x · 实际市盈率(TTM)32.9x
196.0052 周287.16
总览/亚马逊/财报分析/FY2026Q3/逐字稿

FY2026Q3 电话会逐字稿

2026-10-29 来源:谷歌财经 / Quartr 77 段 · 10 位发言人 40 段被报告引用FY2026Q3 季度页 →电话会深度解析 →
译文 77/77 段 · 引用以英文原文为准

发言人

点击某位发言人,只突出显示其发言;再次点击恢复
姓名职位机构段落
Andy JassyCEOAmazon45
Brian OlsavskyCFOAmazon14
Operator8
Dave FildesVP of Investor RelationsAmazon3
Mark MahaneySenior Managing DirectorEvercore ISI2
Justin PostManaging DirectorBank of America1
Brian NowakManaging DirectorMorgan Stanley1
Eric SheridanManaging DirectorGoldman Sachs1
Doug AnmuthManaging DirectorJ.P. Morgan1
Ross SandlerManaging DirectorBarclays1

● 公司管理层 / 主持人 ● 外部分析师

P00100:00
Operator
Thank you for standing by. Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Amazon.com Q3 2026 Financial Results Teleconference. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the presentation, we will conduct a question and answer session. Today's call is being recorded. For opening remarks, I'll be turning the call over to the Vice President of Investor Relations, Mr. Dave Fildes. Thank you, sir. Please go ahead.
感谢各位耐心等待。大家好,欢迎参加 Amazon.com 2026 年第三季度财务业绩电话会议。目前所有参会者均处于只听模式。管理层陈述结束后,我们将进行问答环节。今天的电话会议正在录音。首先请投资者关系副总裁 Dave Fildes 先生作开场发言。谢谢您,先生,请讲。
P00200:28
Dave FildesVP of Investor Relations
Hello, and welcome to our Q3 2026 Financial Results Conference Call. Joining us today to answer your questions is Andy Jassy, our CEO, and Brian Olsavsky, our CFO. As you listen to today's conference call, we encourage you to have our press release in front of you, which includes our financial results, as well as metrics and commentary on the quarter. Please note, unless otherwise stated, all comparisons in this call will be against our results for the comparable period of 2025. Our comments and responses to your questions reflect management's views as of today, October 29, 2026, only, and will include forward-looking statements. Actual results may differ materially. Additional information about factors that could potentially impact our financial results is included in today's press release and our filings with the SEC, including our most recent annual report on Form 10-K and subsequent filings.
大家好,欢迎参加我们 2026 年第三季度财务业绩电话会议。今天与我们一起回答大家问题的有我们的首席执行官 Andy Jassy 和首席财务官 Brian Olsavsky。在收听今天电话会议的同时,我们建议您手头备好我们的业绩新闻稿,其中包含我们的财务业绩以及本季度的各项指标和评论。请注意,除非另有说明,本次电话会议中的所有对比均以 2025 年同期业绩为基准。我们的评论及对各位问题的回答仅反映管理层截至今天(2026 年 10 月 29 日)的观点,并将包含前瞻性声明。实际结果可能存在重大差异。有关可能影响我们财务业绩的因素的更多信息,包含在今天的新闻稿以及我们向美国证券交易委员会(SEC)提交的文件中,包括我们最新的 10-K 表年度报告及后续文件。
P00301:17
During this call, we may discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures. In our press release, slides accompanying this webcast, and our filings with the SEC, each of which is posted on our IR website, you will find additional disclosures regarding these non-GAAP measures, including reconciliations of these measures with comparable GAAP measures. Our guidance incorporates the order trends that we've seen to date and what we believe today to be appropriate assumptions.
在本次电话会议中,我们可能会讨论某些非公认会计准则(non-GAAP)财务指标。在我们的业绩新闻稿、本次网络广播配套幻灯片以及我们向 SEC 提交的文件(均已发布在我们的投资者关系网站上)中,您可以找到有关这些非 GAAP 指标的更多披露信息,包括这些指标与可比 GAAP 指标的调节表。我们的业绩指引纳入了我们迄今看到的订单趋势以及我们目前认为恰当的假设。
P00401:40
Our results are inherently unpredictable and may be materially affected by many factors, including fluctuations in foreign exchange rates and energy prices, changes in global economic and geopolitical conditions, tariff and trade policies, resource and supply volatility, including for memory chips, and customer demand and spending, including the impact of recessionary fears, inflation, interest rates, regional labor market constraints, world events, the rate of growth of the internet, online commerce, cloud services, and new and emerging technologies, and the various factors detailed in our filings with the SEC. Our guidance assumes, among other things, that we don't conclude any additional business acquisitions, restructurings, or legal settlements. It's not possible to accurately predict demand for our goods and services, and therefore, our actual results could differ materially from our guidance. I'll turn the call over to Andy.
我们的业绩本身具有不可预测性,可能会受到诸多因素的重大影响,包括汇率和能源价格波动、全球经济与地缘政治形势变化、关税与贸易政策、资源与供应波动(包括存储芯片)、客户需求与支出(包括衰退担忧的影响)、通货膨胀、利率、区域劳动力市场限制、全球事件、互联网、在线商务、云服务以及新兴技术的增长速度,以及我们向 SEC 提交的文件中详述的各项因素。除其他事项外,我们的指引假设我们不再完成任何新的业务收购、重组或法律和解。我们无法准确预测市场对我们商品和服务的需求,因此我们的实际结果可能与指引存在重大差异。下面我把电话交给 Andy。
P00502:30
Andy JassyCEO
Thanks, Dave. We're reporting $201.9 billion in revenue, up 12% year-over-year. Operating income was $28.1 billion, up 61% year-over-year. Q3 was another strong quarter for Amazon. In AWS, our plan is working. Despite lapping a comparable year-over-year period where we added a lot of capacity, AWS grew 39.3% year-over-year, accelerating for the sixth straight quarter, our fastest growth in nearly five years. Backlog is $578 billion, growing triple digits year-over-year and well-diversified. We're installing an AI accelerator about every 14 seconds, and almost as fast as we install capacity, customers are gobbling it up. Our core compute and storage revenue grew at their fastest rates in several years.
谢谢,Dave。本季度我们实现营收 2019 亿美元,同比增长 12%。营业利润为 281 亿美元,同比增长 61%。第三季度对亚马逊来说又是表现强劲的一个季度。在 AWS 方面,我们的计划正在奏效。尽管上年同期基数较高(当时我们新增了大量算力容量),AWS 依然实现了 39.3% 的同比增长,连续第 6 个季度加速增长,创下近 5 年来的最快增速。积压订单达 5780 亿美元,同比实现三位数百分比增长,且结构多元。我们大约每 14 秒就安装一颗 AI 加速器,而且几乎我们刚把算力容量安装好,客户就立刻抢购一空。我们的核心算力与存储收入增速也创下了近几年来的最高水平。
被引用:↩ 基本面档案 · 投资要点↩ 基本面档案 · 关键跟踪指标↩ FY2026Q3 季度复盘 · 结论摘要↩ FY2026Q3 季度复盘 · 业绩与指引↩ FY2026Q3 季度复盘 · 财务拆解 · 利润质量、营运资本与前瞻指标↩ FY2026Q3 季度复盘 · 长期趋势异常↩ FY2026Q3 季度复盘 · 分部表现 · 一、三大报告分部(含分部营业利润与利润率)↩ FY2026Q3 季度复盘 · 电话会要点 · 核心结论↩ FY2026Q3 季度复盘 · 电话会要点 · 管理层主讲要点↩ FY2026Q3 季度复盘 · 电话会要点 · 语气与信号↩ FY2026Q3 季度复盘 · 管理层口径变化↩ FY2026Q3 季度复盘 · 叙事 vs 报表 · 报表上有、电话会没提的信号↩ FY2026Q3 季度复盘 · 叙事 vs 报表↩ FY2026Q3 季度复盘 · 对投资逻辑的影响↩ 估值 · 分部加总 SOTP↩ FY2026Q3 电话会解析 · 核心判断↩ FY2026Q3 电话会解析 · 管理层发言解析 · Andy Jassy|CEO ×2↩ FY2026Q3 电话会解析 · 措辞与语气信号↩ 指引与语气 · 指引演变 · AWS 增长、规模与利润率↩ 云三强一年砸 6,000 亿建算力:用同一把尺子量,谁的投入回本最快? · 核心争议拆解 · 争议四:几千亿积压订单里,单一客户风险有多大?——结论:微软最高;谷歌、亚马逊没有可核对的数据 ×2↩ 年砸 6,000 亿美金的算力豪赌:云三强烧穿自由现金流、集体举债,谁最先跑通真金白银的正循环? · 核心争议拆解 · 争议二:剥离 OpenAI 与 Anthropic 关联长单后,1.83 万亿 RPO 谁的成色最硬?——结论:亚马逊 81% 原生企业云最稳,谷歌借甲骨文/黑石外溢,微软遭 OpenAI 自研芯片反噬 ×2↩ 年砸 6,000 亿美金的算力豪赌:云三强烧穿自由现金流、集体举债,谁最先跑通真金白银的正循环? · 核心争议拆解 · 争议三:物理电力(GW)瓶颈与 2027 折旧瀑布——新增 210 亿折旧砸表,谁最抗跌?——结论:亚马逊 960MW 核电现成且折旧仅增 26.4%,谷歌迎 Q4 阵痛,微软遭 3P 延期并买断 6 万员工↩ 年砸 6,000 亿美金的算力豪赌:云三强烧穿自由现金流、集体举债,谁最先跑通真金白银的正循环? · 多方原话交锋与验真标尺 · 对质一:算力到底有没有过剩?——结论:上下游五家掌门人同台证实“土地与电力(LPS)”才是唯一瓶颈,亚马逊自建现成核电最顺,谷歌与微软受困机房断档↩ 年砸 6,000 亿美金的算力豪赌:云三强烧穿自由现金流、集体举债,谁最先跑通真金白银的正循环? · 外部一手资料与产业链引用记录 ×2
P00603:19
Our operating margins have long been strong on our core offering, but rapidly improving on the AI side too, well ahead of where they were on core at a similar time of evolution. Even with heightened component costs like memory and significant depreciation from the CapEx we're investing. We continue to accelerate our CapEx payback and have even more conviction than we already had that the investment we're making in AWS will yield a much larger revenue and free cash flow-generating business than we would have imagined a couple of years ago, with strong return on invested capital. We have a compelling flywheel spinning in AWS. Borrowing from Jim Collins' flywheel definition in "Good to Great," where if you do A, you almost can't help but do B, and if you do B, you almost can't help but do C, and so on.
我们的核心业务长期保持着强劲的营业利润率,而 AI 业务的利润率也在迅速改善,远高于核心业务在类似发展阶段的水平——即便当前面临存储等元器件成本高企以及我们投入的巨额资本开支带来的可观折旧。我们继续缩短资本开支的回本周期,并且比以往更加坚信,我们在 AWS 上的投入将造就一个规模远超几年前想象的营收与自由现金流创造型业务,并带来强劲的投入资本回报率(ROIC)。我们在 AWS 中转动起了一个极具吸引力的飞轮。借用 Jim Collins 在《从优秀到卓越》(Good to Great)中对飞轮的定义:如果你做到了 A,就几乎自然而然会推动 B;如果你做到了 B,就几乎自然而然会推动 C,以此类推。
P00704:03
In AWS, having the leading functionality, security, and operational performance can't help but drive customers to run their apps and store their data in AWS, which can't help but drive AWS AI demand because customers prefer their production inference to be near the rest of their data and apps, which can't help but drive core AWS demand because AI uses core for work like reinforcement learning, post-training, and tool usage, which can't help but drive reinvestment back into our broader AWS functionality. This is a different model than primarily hosting GPUs or renting short-term data center capacity. This is a long-term platform strategy that broadly helps customers invent and evolve their customer experiences, operate stably, and build a reliable partnership they can grow for many years. It also yields very attractive long-term economics for us, regardless of supply scarcity.
在 AWS,拥有领先的功能、安全性和运营性能,自然会吸引客户在 AWS 上运行应用程序并存储数据;这又自然会推动 AWS 的 AI 需求,因为客户倾向于让生产环境的推理贴近其余数据和应用程序;而这又自然会拉动核心 AWS 需求,因为 AI 在强化学习、后训练和工具调用等任务中需要使用核心云服务;进而又自然会推动我们对更广泛的 AWS 功能进行再投资。这与主要托管 GPU 或出租短期数据中心容量的模式截然不同。这是一项长期的平台战略,能够全方位帮助客户创新并升级其客户体验、稳定运营,并建立可以持续多年的可靠合作伙伴关系。无论供应是否稀缺,这都能为我们带来极具吸引力的长期经济效益。
P00804:56
There are many examples that illustrate our progress in AWS, but I'll share a few. On the core side, it's important to remember that the vast majority of global IT spend, about 85%, is still on premises, and we're in a 10- to 20-year cycle where that equation will flip to the cloud. Conventional wisdom has been that linchpin workloads like mainframes or storage area networks would never move to the cloud, but these workloads are moving as AWS has built unique cloud substitutes and AI-driven migration capabilities to make this transition much easier. Enterprises get the benefits of less CapEx, lower operating costs, faster innovation, better developer productivity, and data accessibility to more easily leverage AI. Our core business has attractive margins because we've learned to run it very efficiently over the last 20 years.
有很多例子可以说明我们在 AWS 上的进展,我在这里分享几个。在核心业务方面,需要记住的是,全球绝大多数 IT 支出(约 85%)仍然在本地部署(on-premises),而我们正处于一个为期 10 到 20 年的周期中,这一比例最终将翻转至云端。传统观点认为,像大型机(mainframe)或存储区域网络(SAN)这样的关键核心工作负载永远不会迁移上云,但随着 AWS 构建了独特的云端替代方案和 AI 驱动的迁移能力,使这一转型变得容易得多,这些工作负载正在向云端迁移。企业客户借此获得了资本开支减少、运营成本降低、创新加快、开发者生产力提升以及数据更易访问从而更轻松地利用 AI 等诸多好处。我们的核心业务之所以拥有可观的利润率,是因为过去 20 年里我们学会了如何极其高效地运营它。
P00905:45
As our core business grows, we keep reinvesting in our core and AI functionality. For example, as customers generate increasingly more data and seek to get value from it in analytics and AI, the complexity of moving data between data stores and analytics engines is onerous and expensive. With our acquisition of DuckLabs, DuckDB will become the universal SQL dialect of AWS Storage and Analytics, simplifying data processing with a modern analytics engine that is fast, simple to use and ubiquitous, and where customers will be able to write SQL queries once and then execute using any AWS analytics service. For the first time in analytics, customers will have zero migration or portability costs between query engines. This is a big deal, and you can imagine how it will also help agents do efficient querying as well.
随着核心业务的增长,我们持续将资金重新投入到核心与 AI 功能中。例如,随着客户生成的数据越来越多,并希望在数据分析和 AI 中挖掘其价值,在不同数据存储和分析引擎之间搬运数据的复杂性既繁琐又昂贵。通过收购 DuckLabs,DuckDB 将成为 AWS 存储与分析服务的通用 SQL 方言,借助这一快速、易用且无处不在的现代化分析引擎简化数据处理,客户只需编写一次 SQL 查询,即可在任何 AWS 分析服务上执行。在数据分析领域,客户将首次实现不同查询引擎之间的零迁移成本或零移植成本。这是一件大事,你也可以想象这将如何帮助智能体(Agent)进行高效查询。
P01006:36
On the AI side, we continue to expand the capabilities of our inference service, Amazon Bedrock, and it is leading to remarkable growth, with Fortune 500 companies spending nearly 7 times more on Bedrock year over year and total Bedrock token volume growing nearly 17 times year over year. Bedrock is the fastest growing multi-billion dollar service in AWS's history. We have recently added OpenAI models to Bedrock and usage is growing quickly. We also just added Bedrock-managed versions of Kimi, GLM, and SpaceXAI models. You cannot have a conversation about AI today without talking about security, and it is another reason customers keep choosing Bedrock. We have designed Bedrock so customers' data remains secure and private. Inputs and outputs are never shared with model providers or used to train base models.
在 AI 方面,我们持续扩展推理服务 Amazon Bedrock 的功能,并带来了显著增长:财富 500 强企业在 Bedrock 上的支出同比增长近 7 倍,Bedrock 的总 token 处理量同比增长近 17 倍。Bedrock 是 AWS 历史上增长最快的数十亿美元级服务。我们近期在 Bedrock 中引入了 OpenAI 模型,使用量正在快速增长。我们还刚刚上线了由 Bedrock 托管的 Kimi、GLM 和 SpaceXAI 模型。今天谈论 AI 就离不开安全性,这也是客户持续选择 Bedrock 的另一个原因。我们在设计 Bedrock 时确保客户数据保持安全与私密:输入和输出内容绝不会与模型提供商共享,也绝不会用于训练基础模型。
P01107:24
When customers tune a foundation model, we create a private copy specifically for their use, and data is fully encrypted both in transit and at rest. As frontier models get more powerful, they are surfacing software vulnerabilities previously not found and at unprecedented rates. We built AWS Continuum to discover, prioritize, validate, and remediate code vulnerabilities at machine speed. It is already being used by customers like Capital One, IBM, Infor, Luminate, and Robinhood. In Q3, we announced that we will integrate it into the tools where code is being written, Anthropic's Claude Code, OpenAI's Codex, and AWS's Kiro. The interest from customers exceeds anything we have ever seen for a new security service. Agents continue to be deployed at accelerating rates, many of which are being built on AgentCore's building blocks.
当客户对基础模型进行微调时,我们会专门为其创建一个私有副本,且数据在传输中和静态存储时均完全加密。随着前沿模型变得愈发强大,它们正在以前所未有的速度发现以往未被察觉的软件漏洞。我们构建了 AWS Continuum,以机器速度发现、排序、验证并修复代码漏洞。目前 Capital One、IBM、Infor、Luminate 和 Robinhood 等客户已在使用该服务。在第三季度,我们宣布将其集成到编写代码的工具中,包括 Anthropic 的 Claude Code、OpenAI 的 Codex 以及 AWS 的 Kiro。客户对这项新安全服务的兴趣超过了我们以往见过的任何新安全服务。智能体的部署速度仍在加快,其中许多都是基于 AgentCore 的构建模块开发的。
P01208:17
Tens of thousands of customers currently use AgentCore, deploying 2 times more agents with it in Q3 than the prior 3 quarters combined. In addition to building their own purpose-built agents, most companies will also use turnkey agentic services, and we offer several that customers love. Kiro for coding, Amazon Connect for contact center agents, and AWS Transform for migrations. They are all iterating quickly and picking up customer momentum. As is Amazon Quick, our intelligent AI work companion, which is growing very rapidly as large enterprises like Mondelez, EchoStar, 3M, Southwest Airlines, and DXC Technology are choosing Quick because it is purpose-built for work with no compromises on customer data. Finally, our chips business continues to grow triple-digit percentages year over year, and revenue commitments for Graviton and Trainium have each increased more than 20 times year over year.
目前有数以万计的客户在使用 AgentCore,第三季度通过它部署的智能体数量是前 3 个季度总和的 2 倍。除了构建自己的专用智能体外,大多数公司还会使用开箱即用的智能体服务,我们提供了几款深受客户喜爱的产品:用于编程的 Kiro、用于联络中心智能体的 Amazon Connect,以及用于迁移的 AWS Transform。它们都在快速迭代,并获得强劲的客户采用势头。我们的智能 AI 办公助手 Amazon Quick 也是如此,它增长极为迅速,Mondelez、EchoStar、3M、西南航空(Southwest Airlines)和 DXC Technology 等大型企业纷纷选择 Quick,因为它是专为办公场景打造的,且在客户数据安全上绝不妥协。最后,我们的芯片业务继续保持三位数百分比的同比增长,Graviton 和 Trainium 的收入承诺各自同比增长均超过 20 倍。
P01309:12
AI continues to be a tailwind for Graviton because post-training reinforcement learning and agent tool use is mostly done on CPUs versus AI accelerators, and Graviton is the strongest CPU chip, offering up to 30%-40% better price performance than alternatives. Customers using our custom silicon saved more than $2 billion in Q3 alone, and we just open sourced TorchNeuron so developers can run existing PyTorch code, which most already use on Trainium without rewriting a thing. As we launch new generations of chips, demand for prior generations remains strong. After our launch of Graviton5, backlog for prior generation Graviton instances still more than doubled quarter-over-quarter. Short-term capacity for prior generation Trainium instances sell at a premium compared to the first half of the year. With Trainium demand so strong, customers continue encouraging us to make it available outside of AWS.
AI 继续成为 Graviton 的顺风,因为后训练强化学习和智能体工具调用主要在 CPU 而非 AI 加速器上完成,而 Graviton 是最强大的 CPU 芯片,性价比比替代方案高出多达 30%–40%。仅在第三季度,使用我们自研芯片的客户就节省了超过 20 亿美元;我们刚刚开源了 TorchNeuron,让开发者无需改写任何代码就能在 Trainium 上运行现有的 PyTorch 代码(大多数开发者已在使用 PyTorch)。在我们推出新一代芯片的同时,对前代芯片的需求依然旺盛。在我们推出 Graviton5 之后,前代 Graviton 实例的积压订单环比仍然翻了一番以上。前代 Trainium 实例的短期算力容量售价较上半年存在溢价。由于 Trainium 需求如此旺盛,客户不断鼓励我们在 AWS 之外也提供该芯片。
P01410:10
We intend to do so late in 2027. Overall demand for AWS capacity remains exceptionally strong. Enterprises are still very early in using inference at scale, and yet inference already accounts for well over half of AWS's AI revenue and growing, and we have a lot of training revenue as well. We still expect 2026 cash CapEx of approximately $220 billion, the majority for AWS, and expect to spend meaningfully more in 2027 with a clear line of sight to attractive financial returns, as I laid out on our last call. AWS is a $184 billion annualized revenue run rate business, and yet the opportunity remains extraordinary.
我们计划在 2027 年末这样做。市场对 AWS 算力容量的整体需求依然极为强劲。企业客户在大规模使用推理方面仍处于非常早期的阶段,然而推理已经占到 AWS AI 收入的一半以上且占比还在上升,同时我们也有可观的训练收入。我们仍然预计 2026 年现金资本开支约为 2200 亿美元,其中大部分用于 AWS,并预计 2027 年支出将显著增加;正如我在上次电话会议上阐述的那样,我们能够清晰地预见到极具吸引力的财务回报。AWS 目前已是年化收入运行率达 1840 亿美元的业务,但未来的机遇依然非同寻常。
被引用:↩ 基本面档案 · 投资要点↩ 基本面档案 · 主要风险 · [高] 单季超 770 亿美元资本开支把自由现金流吃成大额负数,靠大举发债补缺口并面临折旧洪峰↩ 基本面档案 · 管理层与资本配置↩ FY2026Q3 季度复盘 · 结论摘要↩ FY2026Q3 季度复盘 · 业绩与指引↩ FY2026Q3 季度复盘 · 当季异动↩ FY2026Q3 季度复盘 · 分部表现 · 一、三大报告分部(含分部营业利润与利润率) ×2↩ FY2026Q3 季度复盘 · 电话会要点 · 核心结论 ×2↩ FY2026Q3 季度复盘 · 电话会要点 · 管理层主讲要点↩ FY2026Q3 季度复盘 · 管理层口径变化 ×2↩ FY2026Q3 季度复盘 · 对投资逻辑的影响↩ 估值 · 结论与需要跟踪的信号↩ FY2026Q3 电话会解析 · 核心判断 ×3↩ FY2026Q3 电话会解析 · 措辞与语气信号 ×3↩ 指引与语气 · 指引演变 · 资本开支与基础设施回报周期↩ 云三强一年砸 6,000 亿建算力:用同一把尺子量,谁的投入回本最快? · 核心争议拆解 · 争议一:同一口径下,谁的新增投入赚得最多?——结论:谷歌第一,微软和亚马逊并列第二↩ 云三强一年砸 6,000 亿建算力:用同一把尺子量,谁的投入回本最快? · 多方原话交锋与验真标尺 · 对质三:2027 年谁会踩刹车?——结论:三家都说 2027 年继续加码,资金来源从自有现金流转向借款↩ 年砸 6,000 亿美金的算力豪赌:云三强烧穿自由现金流、集体举债,谁最先跑通真金白银的正循环? · 核心争议拆解 · 争议三:物理电力(GW)瓶颈与 2027 折旧瀑布——新增 210 亿折旧砸表,谁最抗跌?——结论:亚马逊 960MW 核电现成且折旧仅增 26.4%,谷歌迎 Q4 阵痛,微软遭 3P 延期并买断 6 万员工↩ 年砸 6,000 亿美金的算力豪赌:云三强烧穿自由现金流、集体举债,谁最先跑通真金白银的正循环? · 多方原话交锋与验真标尺 · 对质三:现金流承压下 2027 年谁最先踩刹车?——结论:三家 2027 年均不踩刹车,但微软次日发债 250 亿与上下游垫资担保揭示全产业链进入“信用杠杆扩张期”
P01510:52
With our continued pace of innovation, new core and AI functionality, enterprises wanting to run their core and AI workloads in AWS, and the amount of capacity that we're adding each year, we believe that AWS can grow north of 40% in each of 2027 and in 2028 and be a trillion-dollar revenue business in the next five to 10 years. We're in the very early days of this inflection. Our strategy is working, and I expect it will for the foreseeable future. In stores, I think some folks are sleeping a bit on how much progress that business has made and what it's become the last few years. I'm not aware of another retail business approaching Amazon's revenue size, hundreds of billions of dollars, with double-digit operating margins inclusive of ads that's growing at this pace.
凭借我们持续的创新步伐、新的核心与 AI 功能、企业客户希望在 AWS 上运行其核心与 AI 工作负载的意愿,以及我们每年新增的算力容量,我们相信 AWS 在 2027 年和 2028 年每年的增速都能超过 40%,并在未来 5 到 10 年内成为年收入达 1 万亿美元的业务。我们正处于这一拐点的极早期阶段。我们的战略正在奏效,我预计在可预见的未来仍将如此。在商城(零售)业务方面,我觉得有些人可能低估了这项业务在过去几年里取得的巨大进步以及它如今的实力。据我所知,没有哪家营收规模接近亚马逊(数千亿美元)、包含广告在内的营业利润率达到两位数百分比的零售企业还能以这样的速度增长。
被引用:↩ 基本面档案 · 投资要点↩ FY2026Q3 季度复盘 · 结论摘要↩ FY2026Q3 季度复盘 · 业绩与指引↩ FY2026Q3 季度复盘 · 分部表现 · 一、三大报告分部(含分部营业利润与利润率)↩ FY2026Q3 季度复盘 · 电话会要点 · 核心结论↩ FY2026Q3 季度复盘 · 电话会要点 · 管理层主讲要点↩ FY2026Q3 季度复盘 · 管理层口径变化↩ FY2026Q3 季度复盘 · 对投资逻辑的影响↩ 估值 · 分部加总 SOTP↩ 估值 · 结论与需要跟踪的信号↩ FY2026Q3 电话会解析 · 核心判断↩ FY2026Q3 电话会解析 · 措辞与语气信号↩ 指引与语气 · 指引演变 · AWS 增长、规模与利润率↩ 年砸 6,000 亿美金的算力豪赌:云三强烧穿自由现金流、集体举债,谁最先跑通真金白银的正循环? · 核心争议拆解 · 争议二:剥离 OpenAI 与 Anthropic 关联长单后,1.83 万亿 RPO 谁的成色最硬?——结论:亚马逊 81% 原生企业云最稳,谷歌借甲骨文/黑石外溢,微软遭 OpenAI 自研芯片反噬↩ 年砸 6,000 亿美金的算力豪赌:云三强烧穿自由现金流、集体举债,谁最先跑通真金白银的正循环? · 多方原话交锋与验真标尺 · 对质一:算力到底有没有过剩?——结论:上下游五家掌门人同台证实“土地与电力(LPS)”才是唯一瓶颈,亚马逊自建现成核电最顺,谷歌与微软受困机房断档↩ 年砸 6,000 亿美金的算力豪赌:云三强烧穿自由现金流、集体举债,谁最先跑通真金白银的正循环? · 多方原话交锋与验真标尺 · 未来 2–4 个季度检验上述推演模型的四大定量标尺
P01611:39
Year to date, units have grown nearly 15% year-over-year, and that's on an enormous base, having sold more than 30 billion items last year. In absolute dollar terms, we've added more than $90 billion in gross sales in the trailing 12 months, and we're growing meaningfully faster than other retail competitors, adding about double the gross sales per quarter than our next largest competitor in the U.S. and consistently taking retail market segment share. Over the past few years, our North America and International segments have each expanded operating margins by nearly 10 percentage points, which enables us to reinvest in making the customer experience even better. Remember, it's still early. The significant majority of retail, nearly 80%, currently occurs in physical stores. That will eventually flip to e-commerce over time.
今年迄今,商品销量同比增长近 15%,而且这是在去年售出超过 300 亿件商品的庞大基数上实现的。按绝对金额计算,过去 12 个月我们新增了超过 900 亿美元的总销售额(Gross Sales),增速明显快于其他零售竞争对手,每个季度新增的总销售额约为美国第二大竞争对手的 2 倍,并持续夺取零售细分市场份额。过去几年里,我们的北美和国际分部各自的营业利润率均提升了近 10 个百分点,使我们能够进行再投资,把客户体验做得更好。请记住,现在仍处于早期阶段。目前绝大多数零售交易(近 80%)仍发生在实体店。随着时间推移,这一比例最终将翻转至电子商务。
P01712:27
We're helping enable this shift by rapidly building out our efficient and speedy fulfillment network, providing delightful customer experiences while driving significant free cash flow and return on invested capital. Each of our priorities, from faster delivery, to cost to serve, to groceries and pharmacy, to AI shopping, are force multipliers, and we're firing on all cylinders. Our delivery speeds keep getting faster as we invest in our same-day network, as well as our Amazon Now and Amazon Prime Air ultrafast services. We had our fastest Q3 ever globally, and we delivered more than 1.5 billion items to Prime customers same day or overnight in Q3. We're energized by the customer response to our rapid rollout of Amazon Now around the world. It's now available in over 450 towns and cities, and the number of items ordered through Amazon Now is up 10x year over year.
我们正在通过快速建设高效、敏捷的履约网络来推动这一转变,在提供令人愉悦的客户体验的同时,创造可观的自由现金流和投入资本回报率。我们的每一项核心工作——从更快的配送速度、单位履约成本(cost to serve)、生鲜杂货与药房,到 AI 购物——都是力量倍增器,而且我们正在全面发力。随着我们持续投资当日达网络以及 Amazon Now 和 Amazon Prime Air 超快配送服务,我们的配送速度越来越快。我们在第三季度创下了全球历史上最快的第三季度配送纪录,第三季度向 Prime 会员当日达或次日达配送了超过 15 亿件商品。全球客户对 Amazon Now 快速推广的热烈反响令我们倍感振奋。该服务目前已覆盖超过 450 个城镇和城市,通过 Amazon Now 下单的商品数量同比增长了 10 倍。
P01813:21
We're on track to reduce cost to serve per unit for the fourth consecutive year, which enables us to continue meeting or beating competitors' prices, and cost effectively deliver a broad selection of fresh groceries and Everyday Essentials. Increasing speed is fueling our grocery business, including perishables and Everyday Essentials, and gross sales grew to nearly $250 billion in the trailing 12 months. In Q3, fresh groceries and Everyday Essentials grew about three times faster than the rest of our store, representing about half of all units sold. Customers who shop perishables with same-day delivery buy nearly seven times more Everyday Essential units than those who don't. Active grocery customers shop nearly four times more non-grocery categories like home and apparel, and spend over two times more on those categories compared to non-grocery customers. Amazon Pharmacy is also growing fast.
我们正按计划实现连续第 4 年降低单位履约成本,这使我们能够继续持平或低于竞争对手的价格,并高性价比地配送品类丰富的生鲜杂货和日常必需品(Everyday Essentials)。配送速度的提升正在推动我们的杂货业务(包括易腐生鲜和日常必需品),过去 12 个月的总销售额增长至近 2500 亿美元。在第三季度,生鲜杂货和日常必需品的增速约为商城其余品类的 3 倍,占全部售出商品件数的约一半。使用当日达购买易腐生鲜的客户,其购买日常必需品的件数几乎是不使用该服务客户的 7 倍。活跃杂货客户逛家居、服饰等非杂货品类的频次几乎是非杂货客户的 4 倍,在这些品类上的支出也是非杂货客户的 2 倍以上。Amazon Pharmacy(亚马逊药房)也在快速增长。
P01914:15
The number of customers using it is up over 60% year over year, with growth accelerating each quarter through 2026. Repeat customers grew more than 50% year over year. J.D. Power recently ranked Amazon Pharmacy the top mail-order pharmacy for the third year in a row, and we keep making it even better, now offering three-hour prescription delivery in more than 350 cities. Over 400 million customers have used Alexa for Shopping, our agentic shopping assistant, in the last 12 months, with customer interactions up 570% year over year. U.S. customers using Alexa for Shopping are spending 50% more per order than those who don't. It researches products, compares options, checks a full year of price history, gets personalized gift recommendations, and tracks deals and price drops on customers' behalf.
使用亚马逊药房的客户数量同比增长超过 60%,且 2026 年以来每个季度增速都在加快。复购客户同比增长超过 50%。J.D. Power 近期连续第 3 年将 Amazon Pharmacy 评为排名第一的邮购药房,而且我们还在不断改进服务,目前已支持在超过 350 个城市提供 3 小时处方药送达服务。过去 12 个月里,已有超过 4 亿名客户使用了我们的智能体购物助手 Alexa for Shopping,客户交互量同比增长 570%。使用 Alexa for Shopping 的美国客户每笔订单支出比未使用的客户高出 50%。它可以替客户研究商品、对比选项、查询整整 1 年的价格历史、获取个性化礼品推荐,并跟踪促销和降价信息。
P02015:07
Though we anticipate working with horizontal agents, we believe Alexa for Shopping is going to be the primary shopping agent customers use to shop Amazon. Having a shopping assistant constantly by your side as you browse, get inspired, have questions on product detail pages, and that you can simply ask to buy something based on your prior purchases that already have your history, your shipping address, and payment info, is uniquely helpful and convenient for customers. Moving to Amazon Ads, we generated $19.6 billion of revenue in Q3, up 12% year over year. Though there were some timing anomalies in this past quarter, we continue to be pleased with the overall momentum across our ad offerings. I'll mention three items impacting the growth rates.
尽管我们预计会与通用型外部智能体合作,但我们相信 Alexa for Shopping 将成为客户在亚马逊购物时使用的主要购物智能体。当你浏览商品、寻找灵感、在商品详情页产生疑问时,始终有一个购物助手陪伴在侧,而且你只需开口就能基于以往购买记录直接下单——它已经掌握了你的历史记录、收货地址和支付信息——这对客户来说具有独特的实用价值和便利性。谈到亚马逊广告(Amazon Ads),我们在第三季度实现了 196 亿美元收入,同比增长 12%。尽管过去这个季度存在一些时间错位因素,但我们对广告业务的整体势头依然感到满意。我提 3 个影响增速的因素。
P02115:52
First, we shifted Prime Day into Q2 for most countries, moving significant sales and ad revenue that were in Q3 2025 into Q2 2026, a tailwind to our Q2 2026 rate and a headwind to Q3 2026. For advertising, that was 850 basis points sequential impact to Q3 year-over-year growth. Second, Q2 2026 included the first season of NBA on Prime, which last year's Q2 didn't have. Q3 does not include any NBA, it starts in Q4. Third, in Q3 2025, we changed our search engine marketing programs to drive more traffic to search pages on Amazon. It's a better experience for customers, and we also monetize that traffic at a higher rate. That helped accelerate advertising revenue growth starting a year ago, and we started lapping that in Q3. We expect year-over-year growth will return to the high teens in Q4.
第一,我们在大多数国家将 Prime Day 提前到了第二季度,把 2025 年第三季度的大量销售额和广告收入移到了 2026 年第二季度,这对 2026 年第二季度增速是顺风,而对 2026 年第三季度则是逆风。就广告业务而言,这给第三季度同比增速带来了 850 个基点的环比影响。第二,2026 年第二季度包含了 Prime 视频上的首个 NBA 赛季,而去年第二季度没有。第三季度没有任何 NBA 赛事,新赛季从第四季度开始。第三,在 2025 年第三季度,我们调整了搜索引擎营销计划,将更多流量导向亚马逊站内的搜索页面。这为客户提供了更好的体验,同时我们对这部分流量的变现率也更高。这一调整从一年前开始推动广告收入加速增长,而我们在第三季度开始进入高基数对比期。我们预计第四季度广告收入同比增速将重回 15%–20% 偏高区间(high teens)。
P02216:49
The natural question is whether agentic shopping from external horizontal agents is meaningfully impacting Amazon Ads. The answer is no. Few customers are doing much shopping this way yet, as the experience is still not great nor more convenient than coming to a retailer directly to research or one-click order there. Q3 was chock-full of innovation from our ads team that we expect to have impact in the coming months. Headlined by Amazon Ads Agent, which brings together our full advertising offering under a single AI-first platform. Backed by trillions of shopping, browsing, and streaming signals, it supports advertisers at every step with insights, answers, and the ability to optimize and act on their behalf. We also launched full-funnel campaigns in Amazon Ads Agent, bringing sponsored ads, display, video, and streaming TV into a single campaign.
一个很自然的问题是,来自外部通用型智能体的智能体购物是否对亚马逊广告产生了实质性影响。答案是没有。目前很少有客户通过这种方式进行大量购物,因为这种体验还不够好,也不如直接来零售商网站研究商品或一键下单方便。第三季度我们的广告团队推出了大量创新,我们预计这些创新将在未来几个月产生积极影响。其中最核心的是 Amazon Ads Agent,它将我们全部的广告产品整合到一个以 AI 为核心的统一平台下。依托数万亿条购物、浏览和流媒体信号,它在每一个环节为广告主提供洞察、解答,并能够代表广告主进行优化和执行操作。我们还在 Amazon Ads Agent 中推出了全漏斗广告活动(full-funnel campaigns),将搜索推广广告、展示广告、视频广告和流媒体电视广告整合到单一广告活动中。
P02317:40
Advertisers provide initial inputs, including budget and duration, and Amazon's AI plans, executes, and continually optimizes the rest. We're continuing to see momentum in several other areas. I'll mention just a few. Prime Video has emerged as a significant business with a revenue run rate in the tens of billions of dollars, now profitable in its own right. We have momentum with hit shows like Carrie, The Summer I Turned Pretty, The Boys, Off Campus, Reacher, and Fallout. Breakout movies like Project Hail Mary, along with compelling live sports, including Thursday Night Football, off to its best start ever in 2026, NBA on Prime, NASCAR, the Masters, and UEFA Champions League soccer. We recently launched our most powerful devices lineup yet with 34 new products across Echo, Kindle, Alexa tablets, Fire TV, Ring, and Bee.
广告主只需提供预算和投放周期等初始输入,亚马逊的 AI 就会负责规划、执行并持续优化其余一切。我们在其他几个领域也继续保持良好势头,我仅举几例。Prime Video 已成长为一项重要业务,年化收入运行率达数百亿美元,目前自身已实现盈利。我们的热门剧集势头强劲,包括《魔女嘉莉》(Carrie)、《我变美的那夏天》(The Summer I Turned Pretty)、《黑袍纠察队》(The Boys)、《Off Campus》、《侠探杰克》(Reacher)和《辐射》(Fallout);还有《挽救计划》(Project Hail Mary)等爆款电影,以及极具吸引力的体育赛事直播,包括在 2026 年创下史上最佳开局的《周四夜赛橄榄球》(Thursday Night Football)、NBA on Prime、NASCAR 赛车、美国大师赛(the Masters)以及欧洲冠军联赛(UEFA Champions League)足球赛。我们近期还推出了迄今最强大的硬件设备阵容,涵盖 Echo、Kindle、Alexa 平板电脑、Fire TV、Ring 和 Bee 共 34 款新产品。
P02418:33
It's early, but we're off to a very strong start and excited for more customers to get their hands on these as we head into the holidays. Finally, Amazon Leo remains on track to begin initial service this year. We're heading into one of our most exciting stretches of the year with both re:Invent and the holidays. I want to thank our teammates for their hard work and invention to make customers' lives better and easier every day. What we're building at Amazon is unlike anything that's ever been seen before. There has never been a business with a trillion dollars of annual revenue. Amazon is on a path to have two of them in AWS and stores. It's rare, and we're energized by what's ahead. Over to you, Brian.
虽然还处于早期,但我们开局非常强劲,随着假日季临近,我们很期待更多客户用上这些新品。最后,Amazon Leo 仍按计划将于今年开始提供初步服务。随着 re:Invent 大会和假日季的到来,我们正步入一年中最令人振奋的时期之一。我要感谢全体同事的辛勤付出与创新,让客户每一天的生活变得更美好、更便捷。我们在亚马逊所构建的事业是前所未有的。历史上还从未有过年收入达 1 万亿美元的业务,而亚马逊正走在拥有两个万亿美元级业务(AWS 和商城零售)的道路上。这极为罕见,我们对未来的前景充满干劲。下面交给你,Brian。
P02519:14
Brian OlsavskyCFO
Thank you, Andy. Let's start with our top-line financial results. Worldwide revenue was $201.9 billion, a 12% increase year-over-year, and a 13% increase year-over-year excluding the impact of foreign exchange. Worldwide operating income was $28.1 billion, with an operating margin of 13.9%, which is our highest operating margin ever. Starting with our North America and International segments results. First, let me remind you that Prime Day shifted this year, with the sales event occurring in Q2 for most of our largest countries, including the U.S. In 2025, Prime Day was entirely in Q3. Excluding the impact of this Prime Day time change, the third quarter 2026 year-over-year growth would be approximately 400 basis points higher. In Q3, we saw strong customer engagement and a continuation of trends from the first half of the year.
谢谢你,Andy。我们先来看整体营收业绩。全球总营收为 2019 亿美元,同比增长 12%,剔除汇率影响后同比增长 13%。全球营业利润为 281 亿美元,营业利润率达 13.9%,创下我们历史最高营业利润率。首先来看北美和国际分部的业绩。首先提醒大家,今年 Prime Day 的举办时间有所调整,包括美国在内的大多数主要国家都将促销活动放在了第二季度举行,而 2025 年 Prime Day 完全在第三季度举行。若剔除这一 Prime Day 时间变动的影响,2026 年第三季度的同比增速将高出约 400 个基点。在第三季度,我们看到了强劲的客户参与度,上半年的良好趋势得以延续。
P02620:10
In the North America segment, third quarter revenue was $112.9 billion, an increase of 6% year-over-year. International segment revenue was $43.1 billion, an increase of 8% year-over-year, excluding the impact of foreign exchange. Worldwide paid units grew 12% year-over-year. Prime remains a key pillar of our business. Hundreds of millions of Prime members are responding to our combination of vast selection, low prices, and record delivery speeds. Over the past year, monthly orders of fresh groceries placed by our Prime members for free same-day delivery have more than tripled. Let's shift to profitability. North America segment operating income was $8.7 billion, with an operating margin of 7.7%. International segment operating income was $1.6 billion, with an operating margin of 3.7%. In our fulfillment network, the team navigated higher transportation costs from fuel inflation and higher line haul rates.
在北美分部,第三季度营收为 1129 亿美元,同比增长 6%。国际分部营收为 431 亿美元,剔除汇率影响后同比增长 8%。全球付费商品销量同比增长 12%。Prime 会员服务依然是我们业务的核心支柱。数以亿计的 Prime 会员对我们海量选品、低廉价格和创纪录配送速度的组合反响积极。过去一年里,Prime 会员使用免费当日达下单购买生鲜杂货的月度订单量增长了 2 倍以上(变为原来的 3 倍多)。下面来看盈利能力。北美分部营业利润为 87 亿美元,营业利润率为 7.7%。国际分部营业利润为 16 亿美元,营业利润率为 3.7%。在我们的履约网络中,团队妥善应对了燃油价格上涨和干线运输费率上升带来的较高运输成本。
P02721:13
Even with these headwinds, we still lowered our overall cost to serve in Q3 through better inventory placement, shorter shipping distances, and package consolidation. Shipping costs increased 11% year-over-year versus a 12% increase in units. Excluding fuel and line haul inflation, shipping costs grew 8%, or approximately 400 basis points slower than unit growth. Robotics and AI are delivering measurable gains through productivity and employee safety, which we'll expect to compound in the future. In 2026, we doubled our fleet of robotic arms like Cardinal and Sparrow. We're also developing robotics foundation models that enable faster programming and teach robots increasingly complex physical tasks, with the goal of delivering useful robotics at scale. Looking ahead, we see meaningful opportunities to improve productivity across our global fulfillment network and lower our cost to serve while continuing to get products to customers faster.
尽管存在这些逆风,我们依然在第三季度通过优化库存布局、缩短运输距离和合单打包,降低了整体单位履约成本。运输成本同比增长 11%,而商品销量同比增长 12%。若剔除燃油和干线运输通胀因素,运输成本同比增长 8%,比商品销量增速低约 400 个基点。机器人技术和 AI 正在生产力和员工安全方面带来可衡量的收益,我们预计这些收益未来将产生复利效应。2026 年,我们将 Cardinal 和 Sparrow 等机械臂的部署规模扩大了一倍。我们还在开发机器人基础模型,实现更快速的编程并教会机器人完成愈发复杂的物理任务,目标是大规模交付实用的机器人系统。展望未来,我们看到在全球履约网络中提升生产力、降低单位履约成本,同时继续更快将商品送达客户手中的可观机遇。
P02822:15
Our operating margin may fluctuate quarter to quarter, but we're focused on sustained long-term improvement in our cost to serve per unit. Moving to our AWS segment, revenue was $46 billion and grew 39.3% year-over-year, driven by both core and AI services. We added $3.8 billion in quarter-over-quarter revenue. AWS now has an annualized revenue run rate of $184 billion. Customers continue to move to the cloud and scale their use of AWS core services, and increasingly, customers who want the full benefits of AI are accelerating their transition to the cloud. We see a strong linkage between AI spend and growth in our revenue for core services. As customers invest in AI, we see a corresponding increase in core consumption, and we expect that relationship to strengthen as more AI workloads move into production and drive additional demand for compute, storage, and networking.
我们的营业利润率可能会在季度间出现波动,但我们专注于实现单位履约成本的持续长期改善。接下来看 AWS 分部,在核心云服务和 AI 服务的共同推动下,营收达 460 亿美元,同比增长 39.3%。我们的单季营收环比增加了 38 亿美元。AWS 目前的年化收入运行率已达 1840 亿美元。客户继续向云端迁移并扩大对 AWS 核心服务的使用,同时越来越多希望充分获取 AI 红利的客户正在加速向云端转型。我们看到 AI 支出与核心服务收入增长之间存在很强的联动效应。随着客户投资于 AI,核心服务的消耗量也相应增加;随着更多 AI 工作负载进入生产环境并拉动对算力、存储和网络的额外需求,我们预计这种联动关系将进一步增强。
P02923:14
AWS operating income was $17.8 billion, with an operating margin of 38.7%, reflecting strong growth and our focus on driving efficiencies. Our investments in custom chips and custom networking, along with software and process improvements, are helping us optimize capacity and build a more cost-efficient infrastructure. As we've long said, we expect AWS operating margins to fluctuate, driven in part by the level of investment we're making at any point in time. Our AI offerings are gaining traction with customers, with AI revenue growing triple digits year over year. Bedrock has been a significant growth driver. Turning to our cash CapEx, which was $75.9 billion in Q3. This primarily relates to AWS and AI as we invest to support strong customer demand.
AWS 营业利润为 178 亿美元,营业利润率为 38.7%,反映了强劲的增长以及我们对提升效率的专注。我们在自研芯片和定制网络上的投入,加上软件与流程改进,正帮助我们优化算力容量并构建更具成本效益的基础设施。正如我们长期以来所说,我们预计 AWS 的营业利润率会出现波动,部分受我们在不同时点投资力度的影响。我们的 AI 产品和服务正受到客户的广泛青睐,AI 收入同比实现三位数百分比增长,其中 Bedrock 是重要的增长驱动力。再来看我们的现金资本开支,第三季度为 759 亿美元。这主要与 AWS 和 AI 相关,旨在通过投资来支持强劲的客户需求。
P03024:05
We continue to make significant investments, especially in AI, as we believe it to be a massive opportunity with the potential to drive long-term revenue and free cash flow, as well as return on invested capital.
我们将继续进行重大投资,尤其是在 AI 领域,因为我们相信这是一个巨大的机遇,有潜力推动长期的营收、自由现金流以及投入资本回报率。
P03124:17
I'll finish with our financial guidance for Q4. Q4 net sales are expected to be between $240 billion and $247 billion. We estimate the year-over-year impact of changes in foreign exchange rates based on current rates, which we expect to be a headwind of approximately 60 basis points in the quarter. Q4 operating income is expected to be between $28.5 billion and $33.5 billion. I'll mention one factor impacting our Q4 guidance. Amazon Leo's commercial service is on track to begin initial service this year, and we expect to begin capitalizing certain costs in Q1 of next year, including production and launch costs. This is later than I've been predicting in earlier earnings calls. As a result, we will continue to expense the majority of Leo-related costs in Q4. We're ready to serve customers this holiday season and to support the millions of customers building with AWS.
最后我来介绍第四季度的财务指引。第四季度净销售额预计在 2400 亿美元至 2470 亿美元之间。基于当前汇率估算汇率同比变动的影响,我们预计本季度汇率将带来约 60 个基点的逆风。第四季度营业利润预计在 285 亿美元至 335 亿美元之间。我提一个影响第四季度指引的因素:Amazon Leo 的商业服务仍按计划将于今年开始提供初步服务,我们预计将在明年第一季度开始将包括生产和发射成本在内的部分成本予以资本化。这比我在前几次财报电话会议上预测的时间要晚。因此,我们在第四季度将继续把绝大部分与 Leo 相关的成本直接费用化。我们已经准备好在这个假日季服务广大客户,并支持数以百万计基于 AWS 进行开发的客户。
P03225:17
Andy JassyCEO
I want to thank our teams across Amazon for their hard work and focus on customers. Our commitment to elevating the customer experience remains the only reliable way to create lasting value for our shareholders. With that, let's move on to your questions.
我要感谢亚马逊各个团队的辛勤付出和对客户的专注。我们致力于不断提升客户体验,这依然是为股东创造持久价值的唯一可靠途径。下面我们进入问答环节。
问答环节
P03325:35
Operator
Thank you. At this time, we will now open the call up for questions. We ask each caller to please limit yourself to one question. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your keypad. We ask that when you pose your question, you pick up your handsets to provide optimum sound quality. Once again, to initiate a question, please press star, then one on your touch tone telephone at this time. Please hold while we poll for questions. Thank you. Our first question comes from the line of Justin Post with Bank of America. Please proceed with your question.
谢谢。现在我们开始进入问答环节。请每位提问者将问题限制在 1 个以内。如果您想提问,请按电话键盘上的星号键加 1。为了保证最佳音质,请您在提问时拿起听筒。重申一下,如需提问,请按按键式电话上的星号键加 1。请稍候,我们正在收集提问。谢谢。我们的第一个问题来自美国银行(Bank of America)的 Justin Post。请提问。
P03426:22
Justin PostManaging Director, Bank of America
Great. Thank you. Andy, continued to see the cloud business accelerate, which is really nice, but the quarter-over-quarter growth slowed. I am just wondering if there is any call-outs there on the customer side or token costs or anything that kind of drove that and how you are thinking about the capacity adds in Q4. Brian, maybe just any impact of fuel costs on your guidance in Q4. Thank you.
好的,谢谢。Andy,很高兴看到云业务继续同比加速增长,但环比增量有所放缓。我想了解一下,在客户层面或 token 成本等方面是否有什么值得特别指出的因素推动了这一变化?另外您如何看待第四季度的算力容量新增情况?Brian,也请谈谈燃油成本对第四季度业绩指引有什么影响。谢谢。
P03526:46
Andy JassyCEO
I will start with the growth question. We are really pleased with the growth. 39.3% on a business that has got a $184 billion annual revenue run rate is quite unusual. Our fastest growth in about 5 years or 6 quarters consecutively of acceleration. We are adding quite a bit of capacity. I think if you look at what is driving the growth right now, it is a combination of a few things. First, on the AI side, the unusual top to bottom stack functionality we have, whether you are building your own model with SageMaker AI, which is the easiest way to build your own model, or you want to leverage one of the leading frontier models with high security and very strong price performance, people can use Amazon Bedrock.
我先回答关于增长的问题。我们对这一增长非常满意。在一个年化收入运行率达 1840 亿美元的业务上实现 39.3% 的同比增长是非常罕见的——这是我们大约 5 年来的最快增速,也是连续 6 个季度加速增长。我们正在增加大量算力容量。如果你看目前推动增长的因素,其实是几方面合力的结果。首先在 AI 方面,我们拥有独特的从底层到顶层的全栈功能:无论你是使用 SageMaker AI 构建自己的模型(这是构建自有模型最简单的方式),还是希望以高安全性和极佳的性价比调用领先的前沿模型,都可以使用 Amazon Bedrock。
P03627:38
Whether you are building your own agents where we have capabilities like Strands and AgentCore to build and to run those securely and scalably, or you are going to use turnkey agents, which most companies do. If you just look across, Kiro for coding and Amazon Connect for call center and AWS Transform for migrations and Amazon Quick, which is growing incredibly fast, as an AI companion at work. People are adopting those very quickly. We add a lot of capacity every quarter. The amount that we add every quarter is not equal. We are adding different amounts each quarter. If I look at how much we have added this year and what we have planned over the next, I will call it, 8 quarters or so, which is about as far out as we get 8 to 10 quarters. We have a lot of capacity coming as well.
无论你是构建自己的智能体——我们提供 Strands 和 AgentCore 等功能来安全、可扩展地构建和运行这些智能体——还是像大多数公司那样使用开箱即用的智能体。只要放眼看去,用于编程的 Kiro、用于呼叫中心的 Amazon Connect、用于迁移的 AWS Transform,以及作为办公 AI 助手、增长极其迅速的 Amazon Quick,大家都在非常迅速地采用这些产品。我们每个季度都会增加大量算力容量,但每个季度新增的数量并不是平均分布的,每个季度新增的规模各不相同。如果看我们今年已经增加的容量,以及未来大约 8 个季度(我们最长一般看 8 到 10 个季度)规划的容量,我们接下来还有大量算力容量将要上线。
P03728:34
Then, I layer on top of that too, just the impact of chips. We're very well positioned for what's happening in AI because increasingly, what you're finding right now is most customers, every customer that uses AI at scale, but particularly enterprises now as they're starting to deploy more inference into production, they are very eager to save on price performance. Trainium, with the meaningful advantage it has in price performance versus other alternatives, is very compelling to people. Then as more and more people are using AI in a very broad way, it drives a lot of the core in capabilities like reinforcement learning and post-training and tool calling. We have the leading CPU chip in Graviton, which is about 30%-40% more price performant than the other x86 providers. So those things are really driving very significant growth.
此外还要叠加芯片带来的影响。我们在把握当前 AI 趋势方面处于非常有利的位置,因为你现在越来越明显地发现,大多数大规模使用 AI 的客户——尤其是现在开始将更多推理部署到生产环境中的企业客户——都非常迫切地希望提升性价比、节省成本。Trainium 相比其他替代方案在性价比上具备显著优势,对大家极具吸引力。而随着越来越多人广泛使用 AI,在强化学习、后训练和工具调用等功能上又拉动了大量核心云服务需求。我们拥有领先的 CPU 芯片 Graviton,其性价比比其他 x86 供应商高出约 30%–40%。因此,这些因素共同推动了非常可观的增长。
P03829:33
The amount of capacity we add each quarter will vary, but at this scale to be projecting growing over 40% year-over-year in each of 2027 and 2028 is pretty significant, and the fact that we believe that this can be a trillion-dollar revenue business in 5-10 years, it's an extraordinary, unusual opportunity that we're very excited to be pursuing.
我们每个季度新增的算力容量会有所波动,但在目前这样的体量下,预计 2027 年和 2028 年每年同比增速均超过 40%,这是相当可观的;而且我们相信这项业务在 5 到 10 年内能成为年收入达 1 万亿美元的业务,这是一个非同寻常、极其难得的机遇,我们非常兴奋能够全力把握。
P03929:58
Brian OlsavskyCFO
Justin, on your question about fuel and line haul inflation, I would say, I don't have an exact number for you, but it is higher in Q4 than it was in Q3. If you remember, we instituted a fuel surcharge at the beginning of the year for FBA sellers that recovers some, but not all of the costs that we're seeing on fuel for those shipments. Then the remaining part is on the retail
Justin,关于你提到的燃油和干线运输通胀问题,我没有一个精确的数字可以给你,但第四季度的影响确实比第三季度更高。如果你还记得的话,我们在年初针对亚马逊物流(FBA)卖家推出了燃油附加费,这能收回这些货件上一部分(但不是全部)的燃油成本上涨。而剩余部分则体现在自营零售业务的
P04030:24
inbound shipments and outbound shipments. So it's in there. It's a little bit higher than Q3.
入库运输和出库配送中。所以这部分影响已经包含在第四季度指引里了,比第三季度略高一些。
P04130:33
Operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Brian Nowak with Morgan Stanley. Please proceed with your question.
谢谢。下一个问题来自摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)的 Brian Nowak。请提问。
P04230:41
Brian NowakManaging Director, Morgan Stanley
Thanks for taking my questions. I have two. Andy, your excitement about AWS is coming through the line, and it is pretty rare you would make comments about a trillion dollars of revenue 5 to 10 years from now. It is more than you usually give. Can you just maybe walk us through how you get to that trillion of dollars? Is it top-down? Is it bottom-up? What gives you confidence that you are going to be able to put up that type of revenue growth and to get to that type of a number in the next 5 to 10 years? The second one, just for either of you. On the robotics side, as we look into 2027, what are the key milestones you are both focused on the robotics side for the Retail business?
感谢接受我的提问。我有两个问题。Andy,隔着电话都能感受到您对 AWS 的兴奋之情,而且您很少会这样谈及 5 到 10 年后实现 1 万亿美元收入的目标,这比您平时透露的信息要多得多。您能否向我们拆解一下,这 1 万亿美元是如何推算出来的?是自上而下还是自下而上测算的?是什么让您有信心在未来 5 到 10 年内实现那样的营收增速并达到那样的规模?第二个问题请问二位中的任何一位:在机器人方面,展望 2027 年,二位在零售业务的机器人布局上最关注哪些关键里程碑?
P04331:21
Andy JassyCEO
Yeah. On the AWS side, if you just look at the growth rates, Brian, look at the growth rates on the run rate, and then look at what we are projecting in 2027 and 2028. As I have said a few times, we will always, despite how much capacity we are providing, the big chunks of capacity that people take, the hundreds of megawatts or sometimes up to a gigawatt of capacity, those big chunks are reserved well in advance because you cannot leave a gigawatt of capacity hanging around. We have very good visibility into 2027 and 2028 and some of 2029 too, with respect to what customers want in those really big chunks of capacity.
好的。在 AWS 方面,Brian,如果你看目前的增长率,看我们在年化收入运行率基数上的增长率,再看我们对 2027 年和 2028 年的预测。正如我多次提到的,无论我们提供多少算力容量,客户拿走的那些大块算力容量——几百兆瓦有时甚至高达 1 吉瓦(GW)的容量——都是提前很久预订好的,因为你不可能让 1 吉瓦的容量闲置在那里。对于客户在这些超大块算力容量上的需求,我们对 2027 年和 2028 年、乃至 2029 年的一部分都拥有非常高的可见度。
被引用:↩ FY2026Q3 季度复盘 · 财务拆解 · 利润质量、营运资本与前瞻指标↩ FY2026Q3 季度复盘 · 电话会要点 · 问答交锋↩ FY2026Q3 电话会解析 · 问答解析 · Brian Nowak(Morgan Stanley):AWS 万亿美元营收的推算逻辑、2027 年零售机器人关键里程碑↩ 年砸 6,000 亿美金的算力豪赌:云三强烧穿自由现金流、集体举债,谁最先跑通真金白银的正循环? · 底层逻辑与关键账本 · 表二:上游芯片(AVGO/NVDA)交叉对账、单吉瓦(GW)算力物理经济账与 2027 折旧/净现金底牌↩ 年砸 6,000 亿美金的算力豪赌:云三强烧穿自由现金流、集体举债,谁最先跑通真金白银的正循环? · 核心争议拆解 · 争议一:联立上游博通/英伟达账本与滞后本金,谁的真实算力增量 ROIC 最高?——结论:谷歌(31.5%)靠半价 TPU 夺冠,亚马逊(27.1%)居次,微软(18.2%)垫底↩ 年砸 6,000 亿美金的算力豪赌:云三强烧穿自由现金流、集体举债,谁最先跑通真金白银的正循环? · 多方原话交锋与验真标尺 · 对质二:自研芯片能不能扛住硬件涨价与折旧?——结论:博通实锤“定制 XPU 成本不到 GPU 一半”,谷歌与亚马逊享自研红利,微软硬扛存储与 GPU 涨价↩ 年砸 6,000 亿美金的算力豪赌:云三强烧穿自由现金流、集体举债,谁最先跑通真金白银的正循环? · 外部一手资料与产业链引用记录
P04432:07
We will always leave a fair bit of capacity available for on-demand, on EC2 or in Bedrock, and we are working closely with our customers, and they will have plenty of capacity to be able to use in AWS. We have very good visibility into the next few years on what AWS looks like. Those types of growth rates, when you do the math on the revenue and the revenue run rate we have, get you pretty quickly to escalating numbers. I would say that on top of not believing that a lot of the usage we see today is going to attenuate anytime soon, we are still really early in enterprises using inference in their production applications in a pervasive way.
我们也总会留出相当一部分算力容量供 EC2 或 Bedrock 上的按需(on-demand)使用,我们正与客户紧密合作,他们在 AWS 上会有充足的容量可用。因此我们对未来几年 AWS 的发展态势有非常清晰的可见度。当你基于我们现有的营收和年化收入运行率按这样的增长率做个算术,数字很快就会节节攀升。我想说的是,除了我们认为目前看到的大量使用需求在短期内不会减弱之外,企业客户在生产级应用程序中全面普及推理目前仍处于非常早期的阶段。
P04532:49
It is just really early, and some of that is enterprises having enough people who know how to operate an AI and post-train and fine-tune models for the right applications. Some of it is the cost of inference. I think if we all want enterprises to be able to use inference the way we all believe they will, we have to keep working on taking the cost of inference down. That is a huge mission for AWS. It's one of the significant reasons why we're building our own custom silicon in Trainium, is that we just really believe it's incredibly important for customers to be able to use inference in a much more cost-effective way. That has come down a lot, the cost of inference, over the last couple of years, and I think it will come down meaningfully more. Then you just think about what you're seeing.
现在确实还处于非常早期的阶段,部分原因在于企业需要足够多懂得如何运营 AI、并针对合适的应用进行模型后训练和微调的人才;另一部分原因则是推理成本。我认为,如果我们希望企业能够像大家预期的那样广泛使用推理,我们就必须持续努力把推理成本降下来。这是 AWS 的一项重大使命。这也是我们打造自研芯片 Trainium 的重要原因之一——我们深信,让客户能够以更具成本效益的方式使用推理至关重要。过去两年里,推理成本已经下降了很多,而且我认为未来还会大幅下降。然后你再想想现在看到的各种应用场景。
P04633:38
If you think about security as an example, just by itself, the models today are so advanced that the vulnerabilities that they're finding, humans just haven't found. If you've had access to these models, you're using these models to both find them and ultimately to help with patching them and deploying, and there are some people who think that the total amount of tokens used over the next year or 2, 20% of it is some significant percent of it may end up being just security. That's a relatively new use case on top of what we're seeing with coding and how that continues to grow, on top of what we're seeing with the various, I'll call it AI companions, both in the consumer space and in the workspace, like with Quick. These are just the initial big use cases.
以安全领域为例,单就这一项而言,如今的模型已经非常先进,它们正在发现人类此前根本没能发现的漏洞。只要你用上这些模型,你就会用它们来查找漏洞,并最终协助修补漏洞和部署上线;甚至有人认为,在未来 1 到 2 年内消耗的 token 总量中,可能有 20% 或相当可观的比例仅仅是用于安全领域。这还只是一个相对较新的应用场景,建立在我们已经看到的编程应用及其持续增长之上,也建立在消费端和办公端(如 Quick)各类 AI 助手的增长之上。而这些仅仅是第一批大型应用场景。
P04734:30
You layer on top of that, what you're going to see with enterprises, where I believe virtually every modern enterprise production application will be rewritten to be agentically capable, because that's the way you're going to have to deploy if you want to move quickly or you want to actually guard in the right way against some of the security risks. There is just so much AI coming. You can't predict with any certainty 5 to 10 years from now, especially at these types of growth rates, but it's not a stretch for us to imagine that this could be over a trillion-dollar business. On the robotics side, what I would say is that it's pretty remarkable what's happening in robotics right now. I'll say in general, but particularly at Amazon.
在此之上再叠加企业端即将发生的变化——我相信几乎每一个现代企业的生产级应用程序都将被重写以具备智能体能力(agentically capable),因为如果你想快速行动,或者想以正确的方式防范某些安全风险,你就必须以这种方式进行部署。接下来还会有海量的 AI 需求涌现。没人能百分之百确定地预测 5 到 10 年后的情况,尤其是在这样的增长速度下,但对我们来说,想象它成为一项规模超过 1 万亿美元的业务绝非夸张。在机器人方面,我想说目前机器人领域正在发生的变化相当了不起——无论是整个行业,还是具体到亚马逊内部。
P04835:23
We have over 1 million robots now in our fulfillment network, and while they're having very significant impact on our cost structure and on our productivity and on safety. If you look at our safety numbers in our fulfillment network, they're at record low numbers. We've made huge progress over the last 4 to 5 years, and robotics has been a big piece of that. Yet, I would tell you we're still so early with respect to both what we have built and deployed and what we're working on. I think that you'll see, we will always have a lot of teammates in our fulfillment centers. But I think a lot of the jobs that we have that are more repetitive that we have humans doing will be done by robots. I think we're investing in all sorts of additional robotics of all different form factors.
目前我们的履约网络中已部署了超过 100 万台机器人,它们正在对我们的成本结构、生产力和安全性产生非常显著的影响。如果你看我们履约网络的安全事故数据,目前正处于历史最低水平。过去 4 到 5 年我们取得了巨大进步,其中机器人技术功不可没。即便如此,我想告诉你的是,无论就我们已经构建和部署的系统而言,还是就我们正在研发的项目而言,现在都还处于非常早期的阶段。我们的履约中心里永远都会有大量人类员工,但我认为目前由人工完成的许多重复性较高的工作未来将由机器人来完成。我们正在投资各种不同形态的新型机器人。
P04936:13
I think we have the opportunity to also assist on some of the delivering of the last 100 yards to customer doors. We have a lot coming, and for us, the way we measure robotics are
我认为我们还有机会在送到客户家门口的“最后 100 码”配送环节提供辅助。我们还有很多新成果即将推出,而对我们来说,衡量机器人技术的标准是:
P05036:27
Does it lead to comparable or better productivity, safety, cost structure, and time to delivery? When we like that combination of economics, we will deploy it at scale in our fulfillment network. If I look at the new designs that we have coming in our fulfillment network, including our expansion of same-day facilities, they are very heavy on robotics. We think it has had a big impact, and we think it is small compared to what it is going to be in the next five years.
它能否带来相当甚至更好的生产力、安全性、成本结构和配送时效?当我们对这套经济效益组合感到满意时,就会在履约网络中大规模部署。如果看我们履约网络即将推出的新设计方案(包括当日达设施的扩建),其中机器人的比重非常高。我们认为机器人已经产生了巨大的影响,但与未来 5 年它将发挥的作用相比,现在的影响还只是九牛一毛。
P05137:03
Operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Mark Mahaney with Evercore ISI. Please proceed with your question.
谢谢。下一个问题来自 Evercore ISI 的 Mark Mahaney。请提问。
P05237:12
Mark MahaneySenior Managing Director, Evercore ISI
Two things, one. First, thanks a lot for the forward comments on AWS growth. Could I ask you to draw out on margins too? I know that margins can move up and down quarter to quarter, but over the next two years, do you think the current margin structure is relatively stable? We kind of hold at these kind of high 30s, 40% operating margins for AWS. On perishable checkout, I am super excited about this opportunity, just watching how it has rolled out in my neighborhood and in other areas. How much coverage do you have for perishable checkout? In other words, how many Prime households do you think you have covered with perishable checkout? For those that have used it, how much of a boost do you think that is per Prime household?
我问两个问题。第一,非常感谢对 AWS 未来增长的前瞻分享。能否请您也谈谈利润率?我知道利润率每个季度会有上下波动,但在未来 2 年内,您认为目前的利润率结构是否相对稳定?AWS 的营业利润率能否大致维持在 35%–40% 偏高区间(high 30s)甚至 40% 左右的水平?第二个问题关于易腐生鲜结算(perishable checkout),看到它在我所在社区和其他地区的推广,我对这个机会感到非常兴奋。目前易腐生鲜结算的覆盖率有多高?换句话说,您认为易腐生鲜结算已经覆盖了多少 Prime 会员家庭?对于已经使用该服务的家庭,您认为每个 Prime 家庭的支出能借此提升多少?
P05337:57
Is this something that increases spend per Prime household by 20%, 50%, 100%, just given how large the fresh grocery category is? Thanks a lot.
考虑到生鲜杂货品类本身的规模如此庞大,这项服务能否让每个 Prime 会员家庭的支出提升 20%、50% 甚至 100%?非常感谢。
P05438:07
Brian OlsavskyCFO
Hey, Mark, let me start with the operating margin outlook for AWS. We are not guiding at all on our margin for AWS, but I can give you my color on it. It seems very strong op margin, 38.7% this quarter. I would add that the profitability you have been seeing recently is not a random output. It is the result of a lot of disciplined efficiency gains, capacity optimization, closely managing our fixed cost, and as Andy Jassy said, the inclusion of, over time, more and more custom chips into our cost structure. However, there are other things bouncing around. In fact, the outsized growth of AI puts margin pressure on the business as a whole because the margins are lower there.
嗨,Mark,我先来谈谈 AWS 的营业利润率展望。我们不对 AWS 的利润率提供任何具体指引,但我可以给你补充一些背景分析。本季度营业利润率达到 38.7%,表现非常强劲。我想补充的是,大家近期看到的盈利能力绝非偶然结果,而是大量严谨的效率提升、算力容量优化、严格管控固定成本,以及正如 Andy Jassy 所说,随着时间推移在成本结构中纳入越来越多自研芯片的共同成果。不过,也有其他一些因素在波动。事实上,AI 业务的超高速增长会给整体业务带来利润率压力,因为目前 AI 业务的利润率相对较低。
P05539:04
We are happy with the progression in both core and AI margins, and as Andy Jassy said earlier, they are ahead of where the core was at a similar point in time, but they are still lower, so there is going to be that mix issue. There are also headwinds from component pricing that we have talked about. We cannot predict it, but there is going to be always a confluence of these multiple factors that we are working very hard on the cost side and the efficiency side in dealing with investments and new product margins as they start up and launch and reach scale. On the perishables checkout, Mark, I share your enthusiasm about it. As you know, we have had a big grocery business for a while, and it has mostly been in the middle aisles of what you would find in a grocery store, consumables, canned goods, pharmaceutical items, beauty products.
我们对核心业务和 AI 业务利润率的改善进展都很满意,而且正如 Andy Jassy 刚才所说,AI 利润率的表现已经领先于核心业务在类似发展阶段的水平,但目前仍然低于核心业务,因此会存在收入结构(mix)带来的影响。此外,还有我们此前谈到的元器件价格上涨带来的逆风。我们无法准确预测具体走势,但多方面因素总会交织在一起;新产品在起步、推出并逐步走向规模化的过程中,我们会一直在成本端和效率端全力以赴,应对投资支出与新产品利润率的磨合。关于易腐生鲜结算(注:此处起由 CEO Andy Jassy 接话回答),Mark,我和你一样对它充满热情。如你所知,我们已经拥有规模庞大的杂货业务很长一段时间了,但此前主要集中在传统超市的“中间货架区”,比如消耗品、罐头食品、医药保健品和美妆产品。
P05640:00
We have had this leading organic grocery store in Whole Foods Market, which also is growing faster than the rest of the grocery segment, both in the top line and the bottom line, with a new format and Daily Shop in urban environments. It is doing really well, that we are in the process of rolling out over the next couple of years. We have always known if we wanted to be able to serve customers the way we think they want to be served and the way we want to, we have to have a mass offering, and it starts with perishables.
我们拥有领先的有机食品超市全食超市(Whole Foods Market),它的营收和利润增速都快于杂货行业的其余部分,而且我们在城市中心推出的新店型 Daily Shop 表现非常好,未来几年我们正在逐步推广这一店型。但我们一直清楚,如果想要按照客户期望的方式以及我们理想的方式去服务客户,我们就必须提供面向大众市场的生鲜杂货服务,而这首先要从易腐生鲜(perishables)切入。
P05740:27
And if you look at the total spend per household, when we look at the difference between the total amount of spend that we think our consumers and customers are spending on items that we could serve them on versus what they spend on us, the biggest difference is grocery. In a lot of your shops, a lot of grocery starts with perishables, and so we really are excited that we feel like we found something with shipping perishables out of our same-day facilities. We have grown our Everyday Essentials about 3 times faster than the rest of our store. It represents about half of our units now, if I look at all the Everyday Essentials. What we find is customers who shop perishables through our same-day delivery, they buy about 7 times more Everyday Essential units than those that do not.
如果看每个家庭的总支出,当我们比较消费者在我们原本能够提供的商品品类上的总支出,与他们实际在亚马逊上的支出之间的差距时,最大的缺口就是杂货。而在很多日常采购中,大部分杂货购物都是从易腐生鲜开始的;因此我们非常兴奋,觉得通过当日达设施配送易腐生鲜真正找到了突破口。我们的日常必需品(Everyday Essentials)增速约为商城其余品类的 3 倍,如果把所有日常必需品算在一起,现在已经占到我们商品总销量的约一半。我们发现,通过当日达购买易腐生鲜的客户,其购买日常必需品的件数约为不买易腐生鲜客户的 7 倍。
P05841:23
Again, if you are trying to close that gap between what consumers spend overall on the items that we can provide versus what they spend with us, perishables has a huge impact on that. We also see that our grocery customers shop about 4 times more non-grocery categories, like home and apparel and a bunch of other categories, and spend about 2 times more on those categories compared to those who do not use us for grocery. Those are big differences, and we believe that the progress we are making on perishables and grocery is going to ultimately lead to being more relevant to customers for more of their shopping missions.
再强调一次,如果你想要缩小消费者在我们可提供品类上的总支出与他们实际在亚马逊支出之间的差距,易腐生鲜能起到至关重要的作用。我们还看到,我们的杂货客户购买家居、服饰等诸多非杂货品类的频次约为非杂货客户的 4 倍,在这些品类上的支出也约为不使用我们杂货服务客户的 2 倍。这些差异非常显著,我们相信,我们在易腐生鲜和杂货业务上取得的进展,最终将使我们在客户更多的购物需求场景中变得不可或缺。
P05942:05
Operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Eric Sheridan with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question.
谢谢。下一个问题来自高盛(Goldman Sachs)的 Eric Sheridan。请提问。
P06042:15
Eric SheridanManaging Director, Goldman Sachs
Thanks so much for taking the question. Maybe a two-parter on market opportunities within AWS. First, with respect to Bedrock, what have been your key learnings about the market opportunity around Bedrock and how it might continue to scale in the years ahead? Then with respect to the decision to sell Trainium externally, how do you think about balancing the market opportunity of external sales relative to the need for compute for that opportunity relative to other opportunities broadly across both internal use cases and AWS? Thanks so much.
非常感谢接受我的提问。我想问一个关于 AWS 市场机遇的两部分问题。第一,关于 Bedrock,你们对围绕 Bedrock 的市场机遇有哪些核心体会?未来几年它将如何继续扩大规模?第二,关于决定对外销售 Trainium 芯片,你们如何权衡对外销售的市场机遇,与内部应用场景及 AWS 广泛机遇对算力的需求之间的平衡?非常感谢。
P06142:51
Andy JassyCEO
Yeah. On the Bedrock side, I would tell you've probably heard this from us multiple times over the last couple of years, but one of the lessons that we've learned, I'll say for 20 plus years in offering technology to customers, is that there is not one tool to rule the world. People always assume that whatever is in the lead early on is going to be the only thing or things that people use, and it's never the case. It's not true in database, it hasn't been true in analytics. In the beginning of AI, everyone said the only framework people use is TensorFlow. It turns out PyTorch is much bigger now. It's not going to be true with models either.
好的。在 Bedrock 方面,过去两年你可能多次听我们说过这一点:我们在向客户提供技术服务的 20 多年里学到的重要经验之一是,永远不会有某一种工具能够一统天下。人们总是以为早期处于领先地位的产品会成为大家唯一使用的东西,但事实从来不是这样。在数据库领域不是这样,在数据分析领域也不是这样。在 AI 发展初期,所有人都说大家唯一会用的框架是 TensorFlow,结果现在 PyTorch 的规模大得多。在模型领域,同样不会只有一家独大。
P06243:39
I'll say in the next 2 to 3 years, I think there are going to be 6 to 8 models that are about as good as each other, or at least good enough for 95% plus of the workloads. Some will be better at reasoning, some will be better at coding, some will be better at visual pieces, some will be lower latency, and some will be lower cost. Most customers are going to use multiple models, and many will use multiple models in the same generative AI application. What customers really want to do, and we see this validated over and over again when we talk to customers, is they want a service that has really broad selection of those frontier models, and that has very good price performance, and that has very strong security and access control.
我认为在未来 2 到 3 年里,将会有 6 到 8 个模型实力不相上下,或者至少足以胜任 95% 以上的工作负载。有些模型更擅长推理,有些更擅长编程,有些在视觉处理上更出色,有些延迟更低,还有些成本更低。大多数客户都会使用多个模型,而且很多客户会在同一个生成式 AI 应用程序中混用多个模型。当我们与客户交流时,一遍又一遍得到验证的是:客户真正想要的,是一项能够提供极为丰富的前沿模型选择、具备极佳性价比,并且拥有强大安全性和访问控制能力的服务。
P06344:27
They want that service so that they can decide what combination of models they want to use and to swap them back and forth as they leapfrog each other, as different constraints of their applications require them. That's what we see with Bedrock. People are very excited about it. We have both closed models and models like Anthropic and OpenAI's models. We have open models with Kimi and GLM and others. I think the Western world is very hungry for additional open models that are Western open models, and so I believe that will happen over time as well. I think that the size of the opportunity in Bedrock is gigantic, and it could be a service as large as EC2, which is a very large service today in AWS. So I think it's very large.
客户希望借助这样的服务,自己决定使用怎样的模型组合,并随着不同模型交替领先以及自身应用程序不同约束条件的变化,在模型之间灵活切换。这正是我们在 Bedrock 上看到的趋势,大家对它非常兴奋。我们既提供像 Anthropic 和 OpenAI 这样的闭源模型,也提供 Kimi、GLM 等开源权重模型。我认为西方市场非常渴望出现更多来自西方的开源模型,我相信随着时间推移这也会成为现实。我认为 Bedrock 面临的机遇极其庞大,它的规模未来完全有可能达到与 EC2 相当的量级——而 EC2 目前在 AWS 中是一项体量极为庞大的核心服务。所以我认为它的空间非常大。
P06445:20
On the balance of chips and what you sell externally versus what you use inside your cloud, it's a very good question, and it's a question that we're continuing to evaluate as we speak. I would say that the number of companies who have a significant cloud business and a chip strong enough to sell externally is effectively 2. So there really aren't many customers that have to grapple with the same type of problem at this type of scale. At this point, everybody is producing their advanced chips with the same provider. There's only so many chips that provider can provide each year. Everybody gets an allocation. You have to decide with that allocation how much of it you want to sell externally and how much of it you want to use in your cloud. There's a trade-off.
关于芯片在对外销售与自家云内部使用之间的平衡,这是一个非常好的问题,也是我们眼下正在持续评估的问题。应该说,同时拥有庞大云业务和实力强大到足以对外销售的自研芯片的公司,实际上只有 2 家。因此,真正在这种规模上面临同类抉择的厂商寥寥无几。目前,所有厂商都在同一家代工厂生产先进芯片,而这家代工厂每年能提供的芯片产能是有限的,每家客户都会分到一定的配额。你必须决定,在拿到的配额中,有多少用来对外销售,有多少留在自己的云平台上使用。这中间存在权衡。
P06546:17
If you sell externally, you are able to realize more revenue in the short term because you get to recognize the revenue as soon as it leaves your inventory. On the flip side, if you decide to use it inside your cloud in the form of EC2 instances or Bedrock, you actually will end up driving more absolute revenue and free cash flow from those chips because you get to use them over 5-6 years and drive revenue for a longer period of time. You have to really think through what you want to do. To date, I would say that we have taken a different approach in how we have used our chips than the other provider who has this same type of balancing act going on.
如果你对外销售芯片,短期内可以实现更多收入,因为芯片一出库就能确认收入。反过来,如果你决定将其留在自己的云平台内部,以 EC2 实例或 Bedrock 的形式提供服务,由于你可以在 5 到 6 年的使用寿命期内持续运营这些芯片并在更长周期内创造收入,最终每颗芯片带来的绝对营收和自由现金流反而更高。所以你必须仔细权衡该如何取舍。到目前为止,我们在如何使用自研芯片上采取了与另一家同样面临这种平衡抉择的厂商不同的策略。
P06647:02
As I mentioned earlier, we believe we are going to have a very significant business selling chips externally, and we are going to start in late 2027. We will be thinking through that balance, I think, probably every year. They will both be very significant. Our ability to create price, performance, scalable chips is going to be a very significant strategic advantage for us at scale, both in our own cost structure as well as in building a separate business and selling external chips. Selling external chips really is a very different business than your cloud infrastructure business.
正如我刚才提到的,我们相信对外销售芯片将成为我们一项非常可观的业务,我们计划在 2027 年末启动。我想我们大概每年都会重新审视并权衡这一分配比例,这两块业务未来都会非常庞大。我们打造高性价比、可扩展芯片的能力,在规模化之后将成为我们极其重要的战略优势——既体现在优化我们自身的成本结构上,也体现在打造一项独立业务对外销售芯片上。对外销售芯片确实是一项与云基础设施业务截然不同的业务。
P06747:44
Operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Doug Anmuth with J.P. Morgan. Please proceed with your question.
谢谢。下一个问题来自摩根大通(J.P. Morgan)的 Doug Anmuth。请提问。
P06847:53
Doug AnmuthManaging Director, J.P. Morgan
Thanks for taking questions. When you think about the 40%+ AWS revenue growth each of the next 2 years and then the multi-year path beyond that, can you just talk about the CapEx required to drive that kind of revenue over the next couple of years and beyond? Also, Andy, any updates just to how you are thinking about the duration of returns on both servers and networking and then also data centers? Thanks.
感谢接受提问。当您考虑未来 2 年每年 40% 以上的 AWS 营收增速以及此后多年的增长路径时,能否谈谈未来几年及更长远时期内,支撑这种规模营收增长需要多大的资本开支?另外,Andy,关于服务器和网络设备以及数据中心的回报周期,您目前的看法有什么更新吗?谢谢。
P06948:21
Andy JassyCEO
Yeah. I'll take them in reverse order. On the break even on our infrastructure, as I mentioned in my opening comments, we're continuing to move that left. We're continuing to make that shorter. There are a lot of cores, a little bit different from AI, it's a little bit different from how you finance these things. It varies depending on which you're talking about. But we're continuing to make progress, as we historically have been pretty good at doing, if you think about AWS, at finding ways to extend useful lives and to make the break even sooner. We're making good progress there too. On the CapEx involved to grow the way we're talking about, it's meaningful. I think that the way we think about it, Doug, is that this is a once in a lifetime opportunity.
好的,我按相反的顺序来回答。关于基础设施的盈亏平衡点(回本周期),正如我在开场发言中提到的,我们正在继续把它往左移,也就是说继续缩短回本时间。核心云服务与 AI 略有不同,具体融资方式也有所差异,不同类别的设备情况各异。但正如 AWS 历史上一直很擅长的那样,我们在设法延长资产使用寿命、加快实现盈亏平衡方面正持续取得进展。至于实现我们所谈论的这种增长所需的资本开支,规模确实相当可观。Doug,我们对这件事的看法是:这是一个千载难逢(一生一次)的机遇。
P07049:14
I think what we're seeing with AI, it's the biggest transformation in our lifetime. If the idea of being able to grow 39% with $184 billion annual run rate and to grow 40% a year on top of that in each of the next two years, and ultimately end up as a trillion-dollar-plus business, we're going to invest to continue being the leader. We are the leader today in the, I'll call it the infrastructure and AI space. Would it be more convenient if this type of acceleration and opportunity happened over 25 years and you could spread the CapEx over 25 years? Yeah, it might be more convenient, but that's not the world that we live in, and that's not the opportunity. We can fund this plan. I think it will forever change the size of Amazon.
我认为我们在 AI 领域所见证的,是我们有生之年最大的一场技术变革。如果一项年化收入运行率已达 1840 亿美元的业务能够实现 39% 的增长,并且在此基础上未来 2 年每年还能增长 40%,最终成长为规模超过 1 万亿美元的业务,那么我们一定会坚定投资以继续保持领先地位。今天我们在基础设施和 AI 领域就是领导者。如果这种加速增长和历史机遇是平摊在 25 年里发生,让你能把资本开支分摊到 25 年里去投,那样会不会更轻松?是的,那样或许更轻松,但我们并非生活在理想化的世界里,机遇也不会那样等你。我们有能力为这一计划提供资金支持。我认为它将永久性地改变亚马逊的体量。
P07150:13
It will forever change our revenue, it will forever change our free cash flow, and we're going to invest, and we're going to pursue it to continue to be the significant leader like we are today.
它将永久性地改变我们的营收规模,也将永久性地改变我们的自由现金流水平;因此我们将坚定投资、全力以赴,继续保持像今天这样的显著领先地位。
P07250:29
Operator
Thank you. Our final question comes from the line of Ross Sandler with Barclays. Please proceed with your question.
谢谢。最后一个问题来自巴克莱(Barclays)的 Ross Sandler。请提问。
P07350:38
Ross SandlerManaging Director, Barclays
Great. Yeah, I thought I would double down on the Bedrock question. The token marketplace on Bedrock seems to be one of the hottest services in AI right now. Our understanding is the majority of these workloads are running on Trainium. As this becomes a bigger part of the overall AWS story, like you just mentioned, Andy, how might that impact both revenue growth, but especially margins at AWS as you kind of shift from selling bare metal to selling more inference as a service? Could you just talk about that? Thank you.
好的,我想就 Bedrock 的问题进一步追问一下。Bedrock 上的 token 市场目前似乎是 AI 领域最热门的服务之一,据我们了解,其中大部分工作负载都运行在 Trainium 芯片上。正如 Andy 您刚才提到的,随着 Bedrock 在整个 AWS 版图中的比重越来越大,当你们从出售裸金属算力转向出售更多推理即服务(inference-as-a-service)时,这会对 AWS 的营收增长、尤其是营业利润率产生怎样的影响?能否请您谈谈这一点?谢谢。
P07451:17
Andy JassyCEO
Yeah. Well, you are right, that the majority and most of Bedrock today is being run on top of Trainium. We do that in meaningful part because we really like the price performance that we are getting, and it allows us to both keep prices as low as possible for customers, as well as our ability, we like the margins associated with it. If you think about margins in the cloud space and you are looking at different players and what their cost structure looks like, there are a few things to pay attention to. The first is for their data centers, how many of them are they actually buying or long leasing versus doing colo or neoclouds? Neoclouds are about 3,500 basis points worse in operating margin than if you long lease them.
好的。你说得没错,目前 Bedrock 的绝大部分工作负载确实都运行在 Trainium 之上。我们这样做,很大程度上是因为我们非常看重它带来的性价比——这既让我们能够为客户把价格保持在尽可能低的水平,同时也让我们对其带来的利润率感到满意。如果你思考云行业的利润率,并审视不同参与者的成本结构,有几个关键因素值得关注。第一是他们的数据中心:到底有多少是自己购买或长期租赁的,又有多少是通过主机托管(colo)或租用新型云厂商(neocloud)实现的?租用新型云厂商的营业利润率比长期租赁数据中心要低大约 3500 个基点(即 35 个百分点)。
P07552:20
Then you look at what is the hardware on top of which they are running, and if you are using the hardware that everybody else is using, you will have a comparable cost structure to what everybody is doing. If you have the ability to use hardware that is different, you will have an advantage. I think when you look at what we are doing, most of our capacity is either owned or long leased, which enjoys better operating margins than what you will find when people are mostly doing colo or neo, or a big chunk doing colo or neo.
第二是看他们底层运行的硬件是什么。如果你使用的硬件和所有其他人用的完全一样,那么你的成本结构就会和大家大同小异;而如果你有能力使用差异化的自研硬件,你就会拥有成本优势。当你看我们的做法时,我们的绝大部分算力容量要么是自有的,要么是长期租赁的,这本身就比主要依赖或大量依赖主机托管(colo)或新型云厂商(neocloud)的模式享有更高的营业利润率。
P07653:05
The fact that we are running on top of our own chip that is providing both advantage price performance and is more cost effective for ourselves because we own it, I think gives us some structural cost advantages that I think are going to be very helpful to customers as we pass them back to customers and helpful to the overall economics of AWS.
再加上我们运行在自研芯片之上,既提供了更具优势的性价比,又因为芯片是我们自有的而对我们自身更具成本效益——我认为这赋予了我们结构性的成本优势,随着我们将这些节省回馈给客户,这不仅对客户非常有帮助,也将有力支撑 AWS 的整体经济效益。
P07753:32
Operator
Thanks for joining us for the call today and for your questions. A replay will be available on our investor relations website for at least three months. We appreciate your interest in Amazon and look forward to speaking with you again next quarter.
感谢各位参加今天的电话会议并提出问题。本次电话会议的回放将在我们的投资者关系网站上保留至少 3 个月。感谢各位对亚马逊的关注,期待下个季度再次与大家交流。