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松墨黄铜

可口可乐KO

NYSE 跟踪中 报表币种 USD · 财年截至 12 月 下次财报 2027-02-09(FY2026Q4)
$95.83USD
2026-11-02 收盘价 · 非实时股价(行情取于 2026-11-03)
市值 4,120.4 亿美元 · 表观市盈率(TTM)28.2x · 实际市盈率(TTM)32.9x
67.2752 周96.25
总览/可口可乐/财报分析/FY2026Q3/逐字稿

FY2026Q3 电话会逐字稿

2026-10-27 来源:谷歌财经 / Quartr 84 段 · 15 位发言人 35 段被报告引用FY2026Q3 季度页 →电话会深度解析 →
译文 84/84 段 · 引用以英文原文为准

发言人

点击某位发言人,只突出显示其发言;再次点击恢复
姓名职位机构段落
Henrique BraunCEOThe Coca-Cola Company32
John MurphyPresident and CFOThe Coca-Cola Company22
Operator14
Todd BeigerVP and Head of Investor RelationsThe Coca-Cola Company1
Chris CareySenior Equity Analyst and Head of Consumer Staples ResearchWells Fargo Securities3
Dara MohsenianUS Household Products and Beverage AnalystMorgan Stanley2
Andrea TeixeiraExecutive DirectorJPMorgan2
Lauren LiebermanEquity Research Analyst of Beverages, Household and Personal CareBarclays1
Steve PowersAssociate Director of US Equity ResearchDeutsche Bank1
Filippo FalorniDirector and Equity ResearchCiti1
Robert OttensteinSenior Managing Director and Head of Global Beverages and Household Products TeamEvercore1
Peter GromEquity Research AnalystUBS1
Peter GalboManaging Director and Head of US Consumer Staples Equity ResearchBank of America1
Kaumil GajrawalaManaging Director of Beverage, Household Products and HALO StrategyJefferies1
Kevin GrundyManaging DirectorBNP Paribas1

● 公司管理层 / 主持人 ● 外部分析师

P00100:00
Operator
Hello, everyone. Thank you for joining us, and welcome to The Coca-Cola Company's third quarter 2026 earnings results conference call. After today's prepared remarks, we will host a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one to raise your hand. To withdraw your question, press star one again. I will now hand the conference over to Todd Beiger, Vice President and Head of Investor Relations. Mr. Beiger, please go ahead.
大家好。感谢各位的参与,欢迎参加可口可乐公司2026年第三季度业绩电话会议。在今天管理层完成事先准备的发言后,我们将举行问答环节。如果您想提问,请按星号键加1举手。如需撤回提问,请再次按星号键加1。现在我将把会议交给投资者关系副总裁兼主管 Todd Beiger。Beiger 先生,请开始。
P00200:27
Todd BeigerVP and Head of Investor Relations
Good morning, and thank you for joining us. I am here with Henrique Braun, our Chief Executive Officer, and John Murphy, our President and Chief Financial Officer. We have posted schedules under financial information in the investor section of our company website. These reconcile certain non-GAAP financial measures that may be referred to this morning to results as reported under generally accepted accounting principles. You can also find schedules in the same section of our website that provide an analysis of our gross and operating margins. This call may contain forward-looking statements, including statements concerning long-term earnings objectives, which should be considered in conjunction with cautionary statements contained in our earnings release and the company's periodic SEC reports. Following prepared remarks, we will take your questions. Please limit yourself to one question. Re-enter the queue to ask follow-ups. Now, I will turn the call over to Henrique.
早上好,感谢各位的参与。今天与我一同出席的有我们的首席执行官 Henrique Braun 以及总裁兼首席财务官 John Murphy。我们已在公司网站投资者板块的财务信息栏目下发布了附表。这些附表将今天上午可能提及的若干非公认会计准则(non-GAAP)财务指标调节至按公认会计准则(GAAP)报告的业绩。您还可以在我们网站的同一板块找到对毛利率和营业利润率进行分析的附表。本次电话会议可能包含前瞻性陈述,包括有关长期盈利目标的陈述,这些陈述应结合我们的业绩新闻稿以及公司定期向美国证券交易委员会(SEC)提交的报告中所载的警示性声明一并考量。在管理层完成事先准备的发言后,我们将回答各位的提问。请每人仅限提1个问题。如需追问,请重新排队。现在,我将把电话交给 Henrique。
P00301:21
Henrique BraunCEO
Thanks, Todd, and good morning, everyone. Our third quarter results reinforce the continued strength of The Coca-Cola system. We are acting with speed and discipline, enabling us to deliver strong results in an uneven environment. I want to start by thanking all our associates and bottling partners around the world. Every day, they serve customers, support communities, and bring our brands to life. This year has required resilience, agility, and strong execution, and our people have continued to rise to the occasion. Their efforts reinforce my confidence in our updated 2026 guidance and in the long-term opportunities ahead. This morning, I will provide an update on the global landscape and review our third quarter business performance. Then I will discuss how our system is delivering at scale and adapting locally to create durable growth.
谢谢你,Todd,大家早上好。我们第三季度的业绩进一步印证了可口可乐系统的持续实力。我们正以速度和纪律采取行动,使我们能够在冷热不均的环境中交付强劲业绩。首先,我要感谢全球各地的所有员工和装瓶商合作伙伴。每一天,他们都在服务客户、支持社区,并让我们的品牌焕发生机。今年需要韧性、敏捷性和强大的执行力,而我们的团队一直迎难而上。他们的努力增强了我对更新后的2026年指引以及未来长期机遇的信心。今天上午,我将介绍全球形势的最新情况,并回顾我们第三季度的业务表现。随后,我将探讨我们的系统如何实现规模化交付并因地制宜,以创造持久的增长。
P00402:27
John will close with our financial results for the quarter, full year 2026 guidance, and some early considerations for 2027. First, the global operating environment continues to evolve. Geopolitical disruptions affect several parts of the world. Cost pressures have accelerated, and all of this has an impact on many consumers. Yet our confidence in the long-term opportunity remains unchanged. We have a strong portfolio of 32 billion brands and unmatched system reach with our bottling partners. These advantages matter, but so does what we do with them. For several years, we have been strengthening capabilities around consumer recruitment, digital, revenue growth management, and system execution. By staying close to consumers and remaining constructively discontented, we continue to adapt in a dynamic environment. We are increasingly seeing that work reflected in our performance, including this quarter. Volume grew 5% and organic revenue grew 7%.
最后,John 将总结本季度的财务业绩、2026年全年指引,以及对2027年的一些初步考量因素。首先,全球经营环境仍在不断演变。地缘政治动荡影响着世界多个地区。成本压力有所加速,而这一切都对众多消费者产生了影响。但我们对长期机遇的信心依然不变。我们拥有由32个十亿美元级品牌(注:原文转录为320亿品牌)组成的强大组合,并与装瓶商合作伙伴共同构建了无可匹敌的系统触达能力。这些优势至关重要,但我们如何运用这些优势同样重要。多年来,我们一直在强化消费者招募、数字化、收入增长管理(RGM)和系统执行方面的能力。通过紧贴消费者并保持建设性的不满足感,我们在动态变化的环境中不断适应调整。我们越来越明显地看到这些努力反映在我们的业绩之中,包括本季度。销量增长了5%,内生收入增长了7%。
P00503:42
Stepping back, our longer-term performance reflects a more balanced contribution to top-line growth. We expanded margins while continuing to invest in our business. We delivered double-digit comparable earnings per share growth and gained value share. Beyond the headline numbers, I am encouraged by how we are growing. Our disciplined investments in digital capabilities are creating momentum across many of our markets and brands. Yet, we know there is still more work to do. We continue to sharpen how we turn consumer insights into innovation, and we are balancing scale and intimacy to drive stronger execution across our system. Our focus is simple: keep learning and do a little better every day. This quarter, I spent much of my time with our people and bottling partners in several of our markets. These experiences always reinforce the importance of understanding local needs and responding to consumers, a strength of our system across the world.
退一步来看,我们的长期业绩反映出对顶线增长更为均衡的贡献结构。我们在持续投资业务的同时扩大了利润率。我们实现了双位数的可比每股收益增长,并赢得了价值份额。在亮眼的总体数字之外,我们的增长方式也令我倍感鼓舞。我们在数字化能力方面严守纪律的投资,正在众多市场和品牌中积蓄增长势头。但我们深知仍有更多工作要做。我们继续精进将消费者洞察转化为创新的方式,并在规模化与亲密度之间取得平衡,以推动整个系统实现更强有力的执行。我们的工作重点很简单:持续学习,每天做得好一点点。本季度,我花了很多时间在多个市场与我们的员工和装瓶商合作伙伴在一起。这些经历始终印证着理解本地需求和回应消费者的重要性,而这正是我们系统在全球范围内的优势所在。
P00604:56
While every market is different, three themes were consistent. One, affordability is working. Two, both zero sugar and original taste are recruiting consumers. And three, execution and local relevance are helping us win. Let me bring each of these to life across our business. Starting in North America, we grew revenue and gained value share for the quarter. Volume was even, due in part to the timing of the July 4th holiday and temporary challenges in certain finished goods businesses, but performance improved sequentially each month during the quarter. Across our total beverage portfolio, we had strong volume growth from many brands, including trademark Coca-Cola, fairlife, Powerade, Fresca, and smartwater. Mr. Pibb continued its success with another quarter of double-digit volume growth.
虽然每个市场各不相同,但有3个主题是一致的。第1,高性价比(可负担性)策略正在奏效。第2,零糖和原味产品都在持续招募消费者。第3,执行力和本地相关性正帮助我们赢得胜利。让我结合各项业务把这几点具体展现出来。首先从北美开始,本季度我们实现了收入增长,并赢得了价值份额。销量持平,部分原因是7月4日独立日假期的时点影响以及部分产成品业务面临暂时性挑战,但季度内各月表现实现了逐月环比改善。在整个全品类饮料组合中,我们有许多品牌实现了强劲的销量增长,包括可口可乐主品牌(trademark Coca-Cola)、fairlife、Powerade、Fresca 和 smartwater。Mr. Pibb 延续了成功势头,再次实现单季双位数的销量增长。
P00705:57
We are applying our learnings from our strong sports playbook with the next iteration of Fan Work Is Thirsty Work, which brings Coca-Cola into football fandom through team packaging, retail activation, and locally relevant fan experiences. For Halloween, we are pairing Fanta's Haunted Universe with limited edition Ghost Face Punch and collectible packaging that brings the experience from screen to shelf. We are also creating new opportunities across our portfolio. fairlife expanded its Nutrition Plan offerings with the return of fan favorite vanilla, while BODYARMOR FIT brings sports hydration beyond the workout with a sparkling zero sugar format with caffeine, electrolytes, and metabolism support. In Latin America, several key markets started the year facing difficult conditions, but our teams responded with market-specific actions that drove meaningful acceleration in the third quarter. We grew volume, delivered balanced top-line growth, and gained value share with broad-based improvement across the region.
我们正在将强大的体育营销打法中所积累的经验应用到下一阶段的“Fan Work Is Thirsty Work”营销活动中,通过球队主题包装、零售终端激活以及贴合本地的球迷体验,将可口可乐融入橄榄球球迷文化之中。针对万圣节,我们将 Fanta 的“闹鬼宇宙(Haunted Universe)”与限量版 Ghost Face Punch 口味及收藏级包装相结合,把体验从银幕延伸到货架。我们还在整个产品组合中创造新的机遇。fairlife 扩展了旗下 Nutrition Plan 产品线,迎来了深受粉丝喜爱的香草味回归;而 BODYARMOR FIT 则通过含咖啡因、电解质并提供新陈代谢支持的零糖气泡饮形态,将运动补水延伸至健身训练之外的场景。在拉丁美洲,几个核心市场在年初面临艰难的环境,但我们的团队采取了针对特定市场的举措予以应对,推动第三季度实现了显著的加速增长。我们实现了销量增长,交付了均衡的顶线增长,并在整个地区普遍改善的带动下赢得了价值份额。
P00807:13
In Mexico, the environment remains challenging, but we are seeing encouraging progress by combining affordability, strong revenue growth management capabilities, and locally relevant marketing and disciplined execution. In Brazil, momentum remained strong across our total beverage portfolio. Trademark Coca-Cola delivered another strong quarter, while Sprite and sports beverages also performed well. We continued to connect our brands with locally relevant passion points, including the Rock in Rio music festival, while also investing behind growth opportunities across our total beverage portfolio. In Argentina, the environment remains challenging. We have strong plans in place, and while there is still more work to do, we are encouraged by progress across the region. Moving to EMEA and starting with Europe. For the quarter, we grew volume, but we lost value share in a few key markets in Western Europe, and we are taking actions to improve performance.
在墨西哥,市场环境依然充满挑战,但通过将高性价比策略、强大的收入增长管理能力、贴合本地的营销以及严谨的执行相结合,我们正看到令人鼓舞的进展。在巴西,我们全品类饮料组合的增长势头依然强劲。可口可乐主品牌再创佳绩,同时 Sprite 和运动饮料也表现出色。我们继续将旗下品牌与贴合本地的激情触点(包括里约摇滚音乐节 Rock in Rio)紧密连接,同时围绕全品类饮料组合中的增长机遇持续投资。在阿根廷,市场环境依然严峻。我们已经制定了强有力的计划,虽然仍有更多工作要做,但整个地区取得的进展令我们感到鼓舞。接下来看欧洲、中东及非洲(EMEA),首先从欧洲开始。本季度我们实现了销量增长,但在西欧的几个关键市场流失了价值份额,我们正在采取行动以改善表现。
P00908:23
Following the FIFA World Cup, we transitioned into soccer activations around the English Premier League and Bundesliga while continuing to build everyday consumption occasions through our Meals platform. We are complementing these efforts with affordable propositions like our 500ml Super Can and are continuing to focus on price pack architecture to help us recruit consumers and drive transactions. In Africa, despite cycling a tough volume comparison, we gained value share and delivered high single-digit volume growth. We celebrated 75 years of The Coca-Cola system in Nigeria with an end-to-end activation. To meet evolving consumer needs in South Africa, we adapted an affordable single-serve package from India, giving it a locally relevant name, Mashesha, meaning quick. We also activated our Springboks rugby team partnership with the Be a Bok campaign and limited edition collectible players cans.
在国际足联世界杯之后,我们将营销重心转向围绕英超联赛(English Premier League)和德甲联赛(Bundesliga)的足球激活活动,同时继续通过我们的佐餐(Meals)平台打造日常消费场景。我们以500毫升超级罐(Super Can)等高性价比产品配合这些举措,并继续专注于价格包装架构,以帮助我们招募消费者并拉动交易笔数。在非洲,尽管面临上年同期较高的销量基数,我们仍赢得了价值份额,并实现了高个位数的销量增长。我们通过端到端的营销激活,庆祝了可口可乐系统进入尼日利亚75周年。为了满足南非不断变化的消费者需求,我们引入并改良了来自印度的高性价比单次饮用包装,赋予其贴合本地的名字“Mashesha”(意为“快捷”)。我们还激活了与南非跳羚橄榄球队(Springboks)的合作关系,推出了“Be a Bok”营销活动以及限量版球员收藏罐。
P01009:34
In Eurasia and the Middle East, ongoing geopolitical conflicts continue to disrupt business in parts of the region. Our system was resilient, delivering another strong quarter with volume growth and value share gains. From Coke Studio featuring Pakistani artists to affordability initiatives to locally relevant taste innovations like Sprite Cool Mint and Fanta Pomegranate, our teams are adapting to dynamic market conditions. Finally, in Asia Pacific, performance varied across our operating units, but we are encouraged by the progress in many markets. We gained value share and grew volume, revenue, and profit while price mix remained pressured due to a negative geographic mix and affordability initiatives. India delivered strong volume growth, with each of our top 10 brands growing double digits. We are expanding our consumer base by scaling both affordability and premiumization, strengthening execution, and leaning into emerging channels.
在欧亚大陆和中东地区,持续的地缘政治冲突仍在干扰该地区部分市场的业务。我们的系统展现出韧性,再创强劲季度表现,实现了销量增长和价值份额提升。从邀请巴基斯坦艺术家参与的 Coke Studio(可口可乐音乐工作室),到高性价比举措,再到 Sprite 酷爽薄荷味(Sprite Cool Mint)和 Fanta 石榴味(Fanta Pomegranate)等贴合本地的口味创新,我们的团队正积极适应动态变化的市场环境。最后,在亚太地区,各运营单元的表现有所分化,但许多市场取得的进展令我们备受鼓舞。我们赢得了价值份额,并实现了销量、收入和利润的增长,不过由于不利的地区结构和高性价比举措,价格与产品组合(price mix)依然承压。印度实现了强劲的销量增长,我们前10大品牌中的每一个都实现了双位数增长。我们正通过同步扩大高性价比与高端化布局、强化执行力以及发力新兴渠道,不断扩大消费者基数。
P01110:47
For example, we expanded our Sprite & Spicy platform into the QSR channel in India with meal combo activations, social media content, and influencer collaborations, which contributed to Sprite's volume growth of nearly 20% in the region. In China, the consumer environment remains subdued, with cautious spending and soft domestic demand. Despite this, we delivered another strong quarter of volume growth with strength in trademark Coca-Cola and Fanta. We continue to advance our digital capabilities to create more consumption occasions and connect with consumers in new ways. These actions are helping us drive immediate consumption packages and accelerate significant growth across digital commerce and emerging channels. In Japan, volume declined as consumers remained pressured in a challenging macroeconomic environment that was heavily impacted by adverse weather. For the quarter, we gained share, expanded our consumer base in trademark Coca-Cola, and accelerated Zero Sugar volume growth.
例如,我们在印度将“Sprite & Spicy(雪碧配辣食)”平台拓展至快餐(QSR)渠道,开展套餐组合激活、社交媒体内容传播及达人合作,助力 Sprite 在该地区实现了近20%的销量增长。在中国,消费环境依然低迷,支出谨慎且内需疲软。尽管如此,依托可口可乐主品牌和 Fanta 的强劲表现,我们再次实现了单季销量的强劲增长。我们继续推进数字化能力建设,以创造更多消费场景并以全新方式连接消费者。这些举措正帮助我们推动即饮型包装的销售,并在数字商务和新兴渠道中加速实现可观增长。在日本,由于消费者在充满挑战的宏观经济环境中持续承压,叠加恶劣天气的严重冲击,销量有所下降。本季度,我们赢得了市场份额,扩大了可口可乐主品牌的消费者基数,并加速了零糖产品的销量增长。
P01212:03
We are adapting our offerings and executing to meet changing needs. In ASEAN and South Pacific, volume growth was broad-based across many key markets. Affordability, zero sugar offerings, innovation, and stronger execution are helping us recruit consumers and create new growth opportunities, including the launch of Coca-Cola Zero Sugar in Thailand. In Vietnam, we are expanding our affordable single-serve package, which is now available in over 400,000 outlets with high repurchase rates. To sum it all up, while the global operating environment remains uneven, we are encouraged by the momentum across our business and believe in our ability to deliver more for more markets and more for more brands. I am energized by the progress we are making across The Coca-Cola system. We are learning as we go, continue to raise the bar, and finding new ways to create value.
我们正在调整产品供给并抓好执行,以满足不断变化的需求。在东盟及南太平洋地区,许多核心市场均实现了广泛的销量增长。高性价比产品、零糖产品、创新以及更强有力的执行,正帮助我们招募消费者并创造新的增长机遇,包括在泰国推出 Coca-Cola Zero Sugar(零糖可口可乐)。在越南,我们正在扩大高性价比单次饮用包装的覆盖面,目前该包装已进入超过400,000家终端门店,且复购率很高。总而言之,尽管全球经营环境依然冷热不均,但各项业务展现出的增长势头令我们倍感鼓舞,我们相信自己有能力在更多市场和更多品牌中释放更大潜力。可口可乐系统上下取得的进展令我充满干劲。我们边干边学,不断抬高标杆,并探索创造价值的新路径。
P01313:08
The actions we're taking are helping us deliver today while strengthening our ability to create value for the long term. With that, I'll turn the call over to Henrique.
我们正在采取的行动既帮助我们在当下兑现业绩,又增强了我们创造长期价值的能力。接下来,我将把电话交给 Henrique(注:应为 John)。
P01413:20
John MurphyPresident and CFO
Thank you, Henrique, and good morning, everyone. Our results once again demonstrate the strength and adaptability of our business. For the quarter, organic revenue grew 7%. Our unit cases grew 5%. Our two-year, year-to-date volume growth average of 2% reflects a more sustained and balanced contribution to top-line revenue growth. Concentrate sales were two points ahead of unit case volume due to the timing of concentrate shipments. Price mix grew 1%. This was driven by four points of pricing actions, partially offset by three points of unfavorable mix, primarily due to geographic mix, timing of investments, and category mix. Comparable gross margin increased approximately 170 basis points, and comparable operating margin increased approximately 110 basis points. Both reflect underlying expansion, currency tailwinds, and a favorable structural impact from last year's sale of our finished product operations in Nigeria.
谢谢你,Henrique,大家早上好。我们的业绩再次证明了业务的实力与适应能力。本季度,内生收入增长7%。我们的单位箱销量增长5%。年初至今我们的2年平均销量增速为2%,反映出对顶线收入增长更为持久和均衡的贡献。由于浓缩液发货时点的原因,浓缩液销量比单位箱销量高出2个百分点。价格与产品组合增长1%。这主要由4个百分点的定价举措所驱动,但被3个百分点的不利产品组合部分抵消,后者主要源于地区结构、投资节奏以及品类结构。可比毛利率提升了约170个基点,可比营业利润率提升了约110个基点。两者均反映出基础利润率扩张、汇率顺风,以及去年出售尼日利亚产成品业务带来的有利结构性影响。
P01514:35
Importantly, margin expansion did not come at the expense of investment, and we continue to drive greater productivity and efficiency across our operations. We are investing behind our brands and executing revenue growth management strategies that help us better serve consumers across brands, packages, price points, and occasions. Putting it all together, third quarter comparable earnings per share of $0.91 reflected an 11% increase, including a two-point benefit from currency tailwinds. Year-to-date free cash flow was $11.4 billion, an increase versus the prior year. Our balance sheet remains strong with our net debt leverage of 1.3 times EBITDA, which is below our target range of two to 2.5 times. We're continuing to judiciously manage our balance sheet as we await a court decision related to our ongoing dispute with the IRS.
重要的是,利润率的扩张并非以牺牲投资为代价,我们继续在整体运营中推动更高的生产率和效率。我们持续支持旗下品牌投资,并执行收入增长管理策略,帮助我们在不同品牌、包装、价位和消费场景中更好地服务消费者。综合来看,第三季度可比每股收益为0.91美元,增长11%,其中包含2个百分点的汇率顺风助益。年初至今的自由现金流为114亿美元,较上年同期有所增长。我们的资产负债表依然稳健,净债务杠杆率为1.3倍 EBITDA,低于2倍至2.5倍的目标区间。在等待与美国国税局(IRS)持续争议相关的法院裁决期间,我们将继续审慎管理资产负债表。
P01615:44
We are confident in our long-term free cash flow generation and the optionality it gives us as we move through the fourth quarter and into 2027. Our priorities remain the same: invest in our business and return capital to shareowners. Now, let me turn to guidance for full year 2026. We now expect organic revenue growth of at least 5%, which includes the impact of slight destocking and six fewer days in the fourth quarter. Our commodity exposure overall remains manageable. However, we are seeing elevated cost pressures in aggregate, driven by increased logistics and transportation costs. We now expect comparable currency-neutral earnings per share growth, excluding acquisitions and divestitures, of at least 9%. Divestitures are now expected to be an approximate 2% headwind to comparable net revenues, and we continue to expect an approximate 1% headwind to comparable earnings per share.
我们对长期自由现金流创造能力及其在第四季度乃至2027年为我们带来的灵活选择空间(optionality)充满信心。我们的优先事项保持不变:投资于我们的业务,并向股东返还资本。现在,我来谈谈2026年全年的业绩指引。我们目前预计内生收入增长至少为5%,其中已计入第四季度轻微去库存以及减少6天的影响。我们的大宗商品敞口总体上依然可控。不过,受物流和运输成本上升推动,我们看到总体成本压力有所抬升。我们目前预计,剔除收购与剥离影响后的可比货币中性每股收益增长至少为9%。资产剥离目前预计将对可比净收入造成约2%的逆风,同时我们继续预计其对可比每股收益造成约1%的逆风。
被引用:↩ 基本面档案 · 主要风险 · 第四季度浓缩液去库存与 2027 年装瓶剥离带来的表观增长换挡↩ 基本面档案 · 主要风险 · 物流运输成本上升与北美餐饮户外即饮渠道消费承压↩ FY2026Q3 季度复盘 · 结论摘要 ×2↩ FY2026Q3 季度复盘 · 业绩与指引 · 2. 本季新指引 vs 前次指引与市场一致预期 ×5↩ FY2026Q3 季度复盘 · 业绩与指引 · 3. 上季预测对账与偏差复盘↩ FY2026Q3 季度复盘 · 财务拆解 · 前瞻指标↩ FY2026Q3 季度复盘 · 当季异动↩ FY2026Q3 季度复盘 · 电话会要点 · 指引与展望↩ FY2026Q3 季度复盘 · 电话会要点 · 风险与逆风 ×2↩ FY2026Q3 季度复盘 · 管理层口径变化 ×3↩ FY2026Q3 季度复盘 · 对投资逻辑的影响 ×3↩ 估值 · 关键假设↩ 估值 · 结论与需要跟踪的信号 · 需要跟踪的信号↩ FY2026Q3 电话会解析 · 核心判断↩ FY2026Q3 电话会解析 · 管理层发言解析 · John Murphy|总裁兼首席财务官↩ FY2026Q3 电话会解析 · 措辞与语气信号 ×3↩ 指引与语气 · 核心结论↩ 指引与语气 · 指引演变 · 全年内生收入增速(`organic_revenue_full_year`)↩ 指引与语气 · 指引演变 · 全年可比货币中性每股收益与可比每股收益增速(`ccn_eps_full_year` / `comparable_eps_full_year`)↩ 指引与语气 · 指引演变 · 汇率顺风、装瓶业务剥离影响与 2027 年初步考量(`fx_revenue_full_year` / `fx_eps_full_year` / `divestiture_headwind_full_year` / `considerations_next_year`)↩ 指引与语气 · 指引演变 · 浓缩液发货节奏与成本利润率展望(`concentrate_shipment_cadence` / `margin_and_cost_outlook`)
P01716:57
This assumes the pending sale of Coca-Cola Beverages Africa closes during the fourth quarter, subject to regulatory approvals. Based on current rates and our hedge positions, we continue to expect an approximate 1-point currency tailwind to comparable net revenues and continue to expect an approximate 3-point currency tailwind to comparable earnings per share for full year 2026. Our underlying effective tax rate for 2026 is now expected to be 19.7%. This reflects certain benefits in the current year that we do not expect to repeat going forward. All in, we now expect comparable earnings per share growth of at least 11% versus $3 in 2025. Finally, we now expect to generate at least $13 billion of free cash flow in 2026. There are some considerations to keep in mind for the rest of the year.
这一假设前提是待完成的非洲可口可乐饮料公司(Coca-Cola Beverages Africa)出售交易在第四季度期间完成交割(仍需获得监管批准)。基于当前汇率及我们的套期保值头寸,我们继续预计2026年全年可比净收入将迎来约1个百分点的汇率顺风,并继续预计可比每股收益将迎来约3个百分点的汇率顺风。我们2026年的基本有效税率目前预计为19.7%。这反映了本年度的若干税项收益,我们预计这些收益在未来不会重演。综合各项因素,我们目前预计可比每股收益将在2025年3美元的基础上增长至少11%。最后,我们目前预计2026年将产生至少130亿美元的自由现金流。关于今年剩余时间,还有一些事项需要留意。
被引用:↩ 基本面档案 · 投资要点↩ 基本面档案 · 主要风险 · 第四季度浓缩液去库存与 2027 年装瓶剥离带来的表观增长换挡↩ 基本面档案 · 主要风险 · 新兴市场汇率剧烈波动与 2027 年汇率顺逆风转换↩ 基本面档案 · 关键跟踪指标↩ FY2026Q3 季度复盘 · 结论摘要 ×3↩ FY2026Q3 季度复盘 · 业绩与指引 · 2. 本季新指引 vs 前次指引与市场一致预期 ×4↩ FY2026Q3 季度复盘 · 当季异动↩ FY2026Q3 季度复盘 · 电话会要点 · 指引与展望↩ FY2026Q3 季度复盘 · 管理层口径变化 ×2↩ FY2026Q3 季度复盘 · 叙事 vs 报表 · 报表上有、电话会没提的信号 ×2↩ 估值 · 方法选择↩ 估值 · 关键假设↩ 估值 · 结论与需要跟踪的信号 ×2↩ FY2026Q3 电话会解析 · 核心判断 ×2↩ FY2026Q3 电话会解析 · 措辞与语气信号↩ 指引与语气 · 核心结论 ×2↩ 指引与语气 · 指引演变 · 全年可比货币中性每股收益与可比每股收益增速(`ccn_eps_full_year` / `comparable_eps_full_year`)↩ 指引与语气 · 指引演变 · 汇率顺风、装瓶业务剥离影响与 2027 年初步考量(`fx_revenue_full_year` / `fx_eps_full_year` / `divestiture_headwind_full_year` / `considerations_next_year`)↩ 指引与语气 · 指引演变 · 自由现金流、资本开支与有效税率(`fcf_full_year` / `operating_cash_flow_full_year` / `capex_full_year` / `effective_tax_rate_full_year`)
P01818:05
As a reminder, the fourth quarter will have six fewer days versus the prior year. We also now expect slight destocking in the fourth quarter. Therefore, we expect concentrate shipments to slightly trail unit case volume for the full year. For the fourth quarter, following the anticipated refranchising of CCBA, we expect a 4-point headwind to comparable net revenues, a 3-point headwind to comparable earnings per share, and slight margin benefits. While it is too early to provide specific guidance for 2027, we do want to share some considerations based on what we know today. Overall, we expect consumer behavior to remain largely unchanged, with value being a very important consideration across all markets and income groups. The investments we've made to date and the actions we've taken across our business position us to enter 2027 ready to execute.
提醒各位,第四季度将比上年同期少6天。我们目前还预计第四季度将出现轻微的去库存。因此,我们预计全年浓缩液发货量将略低于单位箱销量。在第四季度,随着非洲可口可乐饮料公司(CCBA)预计完成特许经营权再授权(剥离),我们预计可比净收入将面临4个百分点的逆风,可比每股收益将面临3个百分点的逆风,同时利润率将获得轻微助益。虽然现在提供2027年的具体指引还为时尚早,但我们希望基于目前掌握的情况分享一些考量因素。总体而言,我们预计消费者行为将基本保持不变,在所有市场和各个收入群体中,价值仍将是非常重要的考量因素。我们迄今所作的投资以及在各项业务中采取的行动,使我们能够做好充分准备进入2027年并抓好执行。
P01919:16
With respect to commodities, we continue to manage various cost pressures and look for ways to navigate the environment through productivity initiatives with our cross-enterprise procurement group and using all of our revenue growth management levers. At the same time, we'll continue to invest behind our brands, maintain disciplined cost management, and focus on expanding margins over time. With the anticipated refranchising of CCBA, we expect an 8-point headwind to comparable net revenues and a 2-point headwind to comparable earnings per share, but expect positive impacts to both our margins and the return profile of our business. Additionally, as previously announced, we are exploring a potential IPO of our bottling operations in India and will provide further updates as appropriate.
在大宗商品方面,我们继续管理各类成本压力,并通过跨企业采购团队(cross-enterprise procurement group)推进生产率提升举措以及动用所有收入增长管理杠杆,千方百计应对市场环境。与此同时,我们将继续投资支持旗下品牌,保持严谨的成本管理,并专注于随时间推移不断扩大利润率。随着非洲可口可乐饮料公司(CCBA)预计完成特许经营权再授权,我们预计这将对可比净收入造成8个百分点的逆风,对可比每股收益造成2个百分点的逆风,但预计将对我们的利润率及业务回报状况产生积极影响。此外,正如之前所宣布的,我们正在探索印度装瓶业务潜在的首次公开募股(IPO),并将适时提供进一步的最新进展。
P02020:18
Regarding currency, if we assume current rates and our hedge positions, there would be a slight headwind to both comparable net revenues and comparable earnings per share for full year 2027. Many factors could impact both our currency outlook and broader business outlook between now and when we expect to provide guidance in February. To summarize, we are pleased with our third quarter performance. Our proven all-weather strategy continues to be our best ally to sustain our momentum for the rest of the year and into 2027. Across our many markets and operating environments, our people continue to rise to the occasion, and we are grateful for their dedication every day. With that, operator, we are ready to take questions.
在汇率方面,如果假设当前汇率及我们的套期保值头寸不变,2027年全年可比净收入和可比每股收益都将面临轻微逆风。从现在到我们预计在2月份提供指引之间,许多因素都可能影响我们的汇率展望及更广泛的业务展望。总而言之,我们对第三季度的业绩表现感到满意。我们经过验证的全天候战略仍是我们在今年剩余时间乃至2027年保持增长势头的最佳盟友。在众多市场和经营环境中,我们的团队不断迎难而上,我们感谢他们每一天的敬业付出。主持人,我们现在可以开始回答提问了。
问答环节
P02121:15
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, to ask a question, you will need to press *1 on your telephone. To withdraw your question, press *1 again. In the interest of time, we ask that you please limit yourself to one question. If you have any additional questions, you may rejoin the queue. Our first question comes from Dara Mohsenian from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
女士们、先生们,如需提问,请按电话上的 *1。如需撤回提问,请再次按 *1。为了节省时间,请每人仅限提1个问题。如果您还有其他问题,可以重新排队。我们的第1个问题来自摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)的 Dara Mohsenian。请讲,您的线路已接通。
P02221:37
Dara MohsenianUS Household Products and Beverage Analyst, Morgan Stanley
Hey. Good morning. Obviously, another very strong unit case result in Q3 on top of Q2 strength, but the summer results were aided by events such as the FIFA World Cup and favorable weather. A, I wanted to touch on those events. It would be helpful, just what you learned from the summer events with the FIFA World Cup and even America250, how you are using technology investments to enable the system to better activate those events, but also really how you are working to hold on to incremental customers or greater demand from the existing customers during the events as you look across your brand portfolio.
嘿,早上好。显然,在第二季度表现强劲的基础上,第三季度的单位箱销量再次交出了非常亮眼的成绩单,但夏季业绩得到了国际足联世界杯和有利天气等因素的助益。第1点,我想谈谈这些赛事活动。能否分享一下你们从国际足联世界杯乃至美国建国250周年(America250)等夏季活动中汲取了哪些经验?你们如何利用技术投资赋能系统更好地激活这些活动?更重要的是,放眼整个品牌组合,你们如何努力留住在活动期间新增的消费者,或保持现有消费者更高的需求?
P02322:18
B, just maybe taking it broader, as you look out to 2027 across the business globally, can you just discuss the challenge you see from cycling some of these tougher comparisons on the unit case side and how you think about the system's ability to continue to sustain volume growth going forward? Thanks.
第2点,如果从更宏观的角度展望2027年的全球业务,您能否谈谈在单位箱销量面临更高同比基数的情况下所看到的挑战,以及您如何看待系统在未来继续保持销量增长的能力?谢谢。
P02422:39
Henrique BraunCEO
Thank you, Dara. It is great to hear from you. Look, first of all, we are really excited with the results that we had on Q3 because it shows sustained and steady momentum that we had from the first half. It was important to continue that through to the Q3. If you are seeing the numbers that we are getting, more from more markets and more from more categories, and that showed up also in how we continue to gain value share globally. So it is 22 consecutive quarters of value share gain. So we are feeling that we got the right momentum. The strategy is working in an environment that continues to be very dynamic.
谢谢你,Dara。很高兴听到你的提问。首先,我们对第三季度取得的业绩感到非常振奋,因为它展现了我们自上半年以来持续且稳健的增长势头。将这一势头延续到第三季度至关重要。如果你看我们取得的数据,我们在更多市场和更多品类中获得了更多增长,这也体现在我们继续赢得全球价值份额上。我们已经连续22个季度赢得价值份额。因此我们感到自己把握住了良好的势头。在依然高度动态变化的市场环境中,我们的战略正在奏效。
P02523:24
To your point about the FIFA World Cup, and specifically here in the U.S., also the America250 campaign, those were great moments for us to pressure test our end-to-end activation, going from the brand strategy, the innovations that we brought to life, the revenue growth management and execution coming in a very integrated way. We showed up really well as a system, not only in North America, but globally, and we leveraged that into Q3, and we're going to continue to leverage this in Q4 and 2027. Parts of the tech, data, and AI that we used during the FIFA World Cup, you're seeing on campaigns like Fanta Halloween, that you can see the connected packaging really with great content and going all the way down to a transaction, which brings that ability for us to start pressure test the opportunities to drive
关于你提到的国际足联世界杯,特别是在美国还有 America250 营销活动,这些都是我们对端到端激活能力进行压力测试的绝佳契机,涵盖了从品牌战略、我们落地的创新产品,到高度整合的收入增长管理与终端执行。作为一个系统,我们不仅在北美,而且在全球范围内都展现出了极佳的面貌;我们将这一势头延伸到了第三季度,并将在第四季度和2027年继续加以利用。我们在国际足联世界杯期间使用的部分技术、数据和人工智能(AI),如今已经应用在 Fanta 万圣节等营销活动中——你可以看到配有精彩内容的互联包装一路延伸并最终促成交易,这让我们有能力开始对各种机会进行压力测试,从而在未来推动
P02624:24
more engagement all the way to transactions moving forward. The plans continue to be addressed market by market in an environment that continues to be very dynamic. We feel good about where we are right now for Q3 and building the plans for 2027 as well. To the point that you asked as well on what we're going to be bringing in for next year, I always start with the energy that we see with our bottlers, our customers, when they see our plans year to date, and what we are laying up for the rest of the year and next year. Yes, we are cycling a year-to-date high volume year, but we earned that. With getting closer to the consumer and building the flexibility on our plans to develop the right foundations to get where we are.
从互动参与一路转化到实际交易。在依然非常动态变化的环境中,我们继续按市场因地制宜地推进各项计划。我们对目前第三季度的进展以及正在制定的2027年计划感到满意。关于你问到的明年规划,我总是首先看我们的装瓶商和客户在看到我们年初至今的计划执行情况,以及我们为今年剩余时间和明年所作的布局时所展现出的高涨热情。是的,我们明年将面对今年年初至今的高销量基数,但这是我们凭实力挣来的——靠的是紧贴消费者、在计划中构建灵活性,从而打下坚实的基础才取得了今天的成绩。
P02725:26
We believe in our momentum, we believe in the plans. A lot still to happen until we get to next year, but we believe that we have everything that is under our control to guarantee that we continue to deliver on our long-term algorithm.
我们相信自己的增长势头,也相信我们的计划。在进入明年之前还会发生很多事情,但我们相信一切可控因素都在我们掌握之中,能够确保我们继续兑现长期增长算法。
P02825:47
Operator
Our next question comes from Chris Carey from Wells Fargo Securities. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
我们的下一个问题来自富国证券(Wells Fargo Securities)的 Chris Carey。请讲,您的线路已接通。
P02925:55
Chris CareySenior Equity Analyst and Head of Consumer Staples Research, Wells Fargo Securities
Hi. Good morning, everyone.
嗨,大家早上好。
P03025:59
Henrique BraunCEO
Good morning, Chris.
早上好,Chris。
P03126:00
Chris CareySenior Equity Analyst and Head of Consumer Staples Research, Wells Fargo Securities
A key strategy coming into the year was to drive more balanced top line across volume and price mix. Certainly as noted with Dara's question, you are on track for an exceptional year from a volume delivery standpoint, and you will have to compare against that going into next year, as you just noted. But one of the things that I wanted to drill into a bit was the price mix side, which if it turns out to be about 2% this year, we will see, could prove one of the lower price mix years in about a decade. The question is really as you go into 2027, how do you think the price mix strategy evolves so as to continue to deliver on the commitments that you have around your top-line algorithm?
进入今年时,你们的一项核心战略是在销量与价格及产品组合之间推动更为均衡的顶线增长。正如刚才 Dara 提问时所提到的,你们今年在销量交付方面无疑正迈向表现极其出色的一年,而进入明年时你们也必须面对这一高基数。但我想深入探讨一下价格与产品组合(price mix)这一端:如果今年最终落在2%左右(我们拭目以待),这可能会成为近10年来价格与产品组合增速较低的年份之一。我的问题是,当进入2027年时,你们认为价格与产品组合策略将如何演变,从而继续兑现你们围绕顶线增长算法所作出的承诺?
P03226:59
Within that, can you perhaps provide a bit of perspective on how much control you have over that price mix line? There is clearly a geographic mix, there is category mix. You have pricing investments this year. I think underlying the question is just your ability to have control over the complexion of your top line as opposed to there are just these headwinds coming at the price mix line that are perhaps out of your control as you go into next year. I would love any context on that. Thanks.
在此之中,您能否谈谈你们对价格与产品组合这一行项目究竟有多大的掌控力?显然这里面有地区结构、品类结构的影响,而且你们今年还进行了价格投资。我想这个问题背后真正关心的是:进入明年,你们在多大程度上能够掌控顶线收入的构成,而不是只能被动承受那些或许超出你们控制范围的价格与产品组合逆风?非常希望听听您的看法。谢谢。
P03327:33
John MurphyPresident and CFO
Thanks, Chris. A topic close to our hearts here. Let me just take a step back from the quarter. In fact, the last two quarters, and just a reminder that when you think about the two-year volume CAGR, it is still around the 2% mark, maybe slightly above that, given the last two quarters. So we still feel good about the objective to deliver a balanced revenue algorithm. 2-3 points volume, 2-3 points price mix as we move forward. When you take into account some of the factors that have impacted our price mix numbers recently, it is worth unpacking a little bit. We mentioned in the script that we had 4 points of underlying pricing in the quarter, and that is pretty consistent with our year-to-date numbers. A little bit of higher inflation from a couple of markets in the emerging world, but pretty consistent.
谢谢你,Chris。这是一个深系我们心头的话题。让我先从本季度、实际上是过去2个季度退一步来看,提醒大家一点:如果看2年销量复合年均增长率(CAGR),它仍然在2%左右,考虑到过去2个季度的表现,或许略高于这一水平。因此,对于未来实现均衡的收入增长算法——即2至3个百分点的销量增长、2至3个百分点的价格与产品组合增长——我们依然感到很有信心。如果考虑到近期影响我们价格与产品组合数据的一些因素,很值得拆解分析一下。我们在发言稿中提到,本季度基础定价贡献了4个百分点,这与我们年初至今的数据相当一致。虽然新兴市场中有几个市场的通胀略高一些,但总体上非常一致。
P03428:46
I think it is the mix piece that has had a bigger impact on that PMO number and maybe a little bit of a surprise to some. But within that, about two-thirds of it relate to actions that either we have taken ourselves proactively or reflect just some of the inherent mix that has taken place this year, particularly with the finished goods performance. If you were to factor in the Topo Chico situation we have had this year, and you factor in the timing of investments, you take those out, our price mix for the year is pretty much within the band that we would look to deliver. As we go into 2027, it is a little early to give specifics on what we expect for 2027, but just look at the volume CAGR, the volume momentum that we have been delivering.
我认为对价格与产品组合(PMO)数字影响更大的是产品组合(mix)这一块,这可能让一些人感到有些意外。但在产品组合影响中,大约三分之二与我们主动采取的行动有关,或者仅仅反映了今年发生的一些固有结构变化,特别是产成品业务的表现。如果把今年 Topo Chico 的情况考虑进去,再把投资节奏的因素考虑进去,剔除这些因素后,我们今年的价格与产品组合表现基本上就在我们期望交付的区间之内。展望2027年,现在给出2027年的具体预期还为时尚早,但只要看看我们的销量复合增长率以及一直在交付的销量势头就清楚了。
P03529:58
We are continuing to look closely across the world at pricing dynamics going into 2027. Inflation is one factor, but we also take into account a number of other factors. The state of the consumer market by market, the competitive environment, customer environment, et cetera. We will provide a little bit more color on that in Feb. But the mix piece, we will continue to see some geo mix headwinds, just given the nature of the overall portfolio globally with the developing markets will continue, I believe, to outgrow some of the developed markets volumetrically. But two-thirds of the mix, as I said this quarter, were due to factors which we think are manageable going into next year.
进入2027年,我们将继续密切审视全球各地的定价动态。通胀是1个考量因素,但我们同时也会综合考虑许多其他因素,例如各个市场的消费者状况、竞争环境、客户环境等等。我们会在2月份提供更多相关细节。至于产品组合这一块,考虑到全球整体业务组合的性质,发展中市场的销量增速预计仍将超过部分发达市场,因此我们将继续看到一些地区结构(geo mix)逆风。但正如我刚才所说,本季度三分之二的产品组合逆风源于那些我们认为在进入明年时属于可控范围的因素。
P03630:56
Operator
Our next question comes from Lauren Lieberman from Barclays. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
我们的下一个问题来自巴克莱(Barclays)的 Lauren Lieberman。请讲,您的线路已接通。
P03731:03
Lauren LiebermanEquity Research Analyst of Beverages, Household and Personal Care, Barclays
Great. Thanks. Good morning. Wanted to talk a little bit about reinvestment. I know the mantra is more with more, and it looks like this quarter, in terms of the reinvestment that went into SG&A, there was a lot of more. If you could just talk a bit about how much advertising and marketing was up, how much of this is sort of a set the stage into 2027. Because the gross margins and also while we are on margins, underlying gross margin, I think in the slide, was up 70 basis points. Just curious how to think about that, right? You have talked about mix has actually been a headwind. Is it just the absolute strength of the volumes flowing through that is driving that gross margin strength? So marketing investments, where the SG&A dollars went, and then drivers of the underlying 70 basis points in gross margin. Thanks.
太好了,谢谢。早上好。我想谈谈再投资的话题。我知道你们的口号是“以更多投入换更大产出(more with more)”,而从本季度投向销售、一般及管理费用(SG&A)的再投资来看,确实投入了很多。您能否谈谈广告和营销费用增长了多少,其中有多少是为了2027年铺路?另外既然谈到利润率,在演示文稿中,基础毛利率我记得是提升了70个基点。我很想知道该如何理解这一点,对吧?你们刚才提到产品组合实际上构成了逆风。那么推动毛利率强劲表现的,纯粹是绝对销量的强劲增长所带来的经营杠杆传导吗?所以请谈谈营销投资、SG&A 资金的具体投向,以及基础毛利率提升70个基点的驱动因素。谢谢。
P03831:50
John MurphyPresident and CFO
Yes, Lauren, thank you. Let me start with the gross margin numbers. As you are well aware, we think of gross margin in three distinctive buckets. The underlying strength of the business, the structural and currency, we are benefiting from some currency headwinds or some currency tailwinds this year. But the underlying numbers just reflects the quality of top line and the ongoing focus we have on managing our cost base. As you think about the underlying going forward, implied in our algorithm is modest expansion, and we believe we have the ability to sustain that as we go forward. Regarding the marketing investments, yes, we have taken a number of actions in recent months to set us up for a strong start to 2027.
好的,Lauren,谢谢你。我先从毛利率数据说起。如你所知,我们将毛利率划分为3个截然不同的部分来考量:业务的基础实力、结构性因素以及汇率因素——今年我们正受益于一些汇率顺风。而基础毛利率数据反映的正是顶线增长的质量,以及我们对管控成本基础的持续专注。展望未来的基础毛利率表现,我们的长期增长算法中隐含着温和的利润率扩张,我们相信未来有能力继续保持这一趋势。至于营销投资,是的,近几个月我们采取了一系列行动,旨在为2027年的强劲开局做好铺垫。
P03933:00
We have double-digit growth above the line, and we have a number of programs that we are working in partnership with our bottlers on to, as I said, to be ready for a strong start into 2027. I would expect as we go forward that we will have marketing investments growing more or less in line with margins, with gross margins to get to shape of the P&L where we want it to be, not just for 2027, but beyond.
我们的线上大众营销(above the line)投入实现了双位数增长,同时我们正与装瓶商合作推进多个项目,正如我所说,为2027年的强劲开局做好准备。我预计未来我们的营销投资增速将大体与毛利增速保持一致,从而让损益表(P&L)呈现我们所期望的形态——这不仅是为了2027年,也是为了更长远的未来。
P04033:38
Operator
Our next question comes from Steve Powers from Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
我们的下一个问题来自德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)的 Steve Powers。请讲,您的线路已接通。
P04133:45
Steve PowersAssociate Director of US Equity Research, Deutsche Bank
Yes. Hey, great, thanks and good morning. We have spoken about this before, but the reality is that a lot of the inflationary pressures facing the system today sit more heavily with your bottling partners than with the concentrate business itself. I guess in that context, as you approach collective 2027 planning, how would you characterize bottler economics today and their stance relative to those inflationary pressures? Any impacts that may be having on considerations around future pricing, investment levels, or just the way that system economics are shared as you think about the year ahead. Thank you.
好的,嘿,太好了,谢谢,早上好。我们之前也探讨过这个问题,但现实情况是,如今系统面临的许多通胀压力更多地落在你们的装瓶商合作伙伴身上,而非浓缩液业务本身。在这一背景下,当你们共同开展2027年规划时,您如何评价装瓶商目前的经济效益以及他们面对这些通胀压力时的姿态?在展望明年时,这是否会对未来的定价考量、投资水平或者系统内部的经济利益分配方式产生任何影响?谢谢。
P04234:32
Henrique BraunCEO
Thank you, Steve. Look, first of all, we always look at that from a system point of view. Everything starts from how we are going to first grow our plans aligned with our brand plans per market. We feel that we have great plans for 2027, and we are actually anticipating that with investments this year, as we have done in previous years to be ahead of the curve. To get the momentum that we have and the flexibility that we build during the year to continue to invest on those plans. Regarding costs, which is one input into the plan, the environment remains very fluid. The commodities have been manageable for us at this time. Looking forward, we are working with the bottlers right now through all the levers that we have as a system.
谢谢你,Steve。首先,我们始终从整个系统的角度来看待这个问题。一切都始于我们如何根据各个市场的品牌规划来制定增长计划。我们认为我们已经为2027年制定了非常出色的计划,而且正如过去几年所做的那样,我们今年实际上正在通过前瞻性投资来抢占先机,以便延续现有的增长势头,并利用我们在年内建立起的灵活性继续投资于这些计划。至于作为计划输入变量之一的成本,目前外部环境依然处于高度动态变化之中。目前而言,大宗商品成本对我们来说一直是可控的。展望未来,我们眼下正与装瓶商一起动用我们作为1个系统所掌握的所有杠杆。
P04335:36
One of them, it is our cross-enterprise procurement group that we procure the big commodities that we have for next year together. With that, we bring also other levers into the equation, which is productivity, cost management, and our RGM tools to ensure that we have an operational environment that can be totally linked with our growth plans for next year. More to come as we learn during the next few months. But so far, it has been something that we believe it is going to be manageable on the overall scheme of things.
其中1个杠杆就是我们的跨企业采购团队,我们会共同采购明年所需的大宗原材料。在此基础上,我们还将其他杠杆纳入考量,包括生产率提升、成本管理以及我们的收入增长管理(RGM)工具,以确保我们的运营环境能够与明年的增长计划完全衔接。随着未来几个月我们掌握更多情况,还会分享更多信息。但就目前来看,从全局角度而言,我们相信这是可控的。
P04436:23
Operator
Our next question comes from Filippo Falorni from Citi. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
我们的下一个问题来自花旗(Citi)的 Filippo Falorni。请讲,您的线路已接通。
P04536:29
Filippo FalorniDirector and Equity Research, Citi
Hi, good morning, everyone. I wanted to go back to the North America business. Henrique, you mentioned that there were a few impacts on the volume being flat on the quarter timing of 4th of July and some changes in the finished good business. Can you expand a little bit more on that? Given we see solid consumption data and track channels, are you expecting some improvement as we move forward? On price mix, I know you were cycling a difficult comp in Topo Chico and fairlife. How should we think about that, particularly that mix component as we look ahead on the price mix in North America? Thank you.
嗨,大家早上好。我想回到北美业务。Henrique,您刚才提到有几个因素影响了本季度持平的销量,包括7月4日独立日假期的时点以及产成品业务的一些变化。您能否就此进一步展开谈谈?鉴于我们在跟踪渠道中看到稳健的终端消费数据,展望未来您是否预计销量会有所改善?在价格与产品组合方面,我知道你们面临 Topo Chico 和 fairlife 较高的上年同期基数。展望未来北美市场的价格与产品组合,特别是其中的产品组合部分,我们应当如何看待?谢谢。
P04637:08
Henrique BraunCEO
Filippo, thank you. On North America, let me step back and talk a little bit about the quarter and the year so far. We continue to see solid performance in North America. We grew this quarter. Revenue, we gained value share, we expanded margins, we got pricing in line with inflation. That was really important. That shows that the brands have the equity and the right to take price. We kept investing in our brands. The impact that you're mentioning on the price mix was definitely impacted by the cycling of a very strong prior year on some of the premium brands that were generated through our finished goods, including Topo Chico with one of them that you know, and BODYARMOR as well.
Filippo,谢谢你。关于北美业务,让我退一步谈谈本季度以及年初至今的情况。我们在北美继续看到稳健的业绩表现。本季度我们实现了增长:收入增长、赢得价值份额、扩大利润率,并且实现了与通胀同步的定价。这一点非常重要,表明我们的品牌拥有强大的品牌资产和提价权。我们持续对旗下品牌进行投资。你提到的价格与产品组合所受到的影响,确实源于产成品业务旗下部分高端品牌面临非常强劲的上年同期基数,其中1个就是你所知道的 Topo Chico,此外还有 BODYARMOR。
P04738:06
With that into the equation, if you take that out actually, and you take the impact of the July 4th that fell into the second quarter, and we mentioned that before, we would see volume growth. We see the momentum is still there. In terms of the strength of our strategy and our brands, we also feel confident that we have pretty good momentum, especially with trademark Coca-Cola that grew again this quarter. Diet Coke and Coca-Cola Zero, especially Coca-Cola Zero, growing double digit again, and fairlife continues to do really well. POWERADE also grew, and we have other areas that we have work to do, which is always good for us also to instill here our motto of being constructive with discontent that there are areas for us to work on.
把这一因素纳入考量后,实际上如果剔除这一影响,再剔除我们之前提到过的落入第二季度的7月4日独立日假期影响,我们的销量原本是实现正增长的。我们看到增长势头依然存在。就我们的战略实力和品牌实力而言,我们也充满信心,认为自己保持着相当良好的势头,尤其是可口可乐主品牌在本季度再次实现增长。健怡可乐(Diet Coke)和零糖可口可乐(Coca-Cola Zero),特别是零糖可口可乐,再次实现了双位数增长,同时 fairlife 继续表现得非常出色。POWERADE 也实现了增长;当然我们也有其他一些尚需改进的领域,这也有助于我们在内部贯彻“保持建设性的不满足感”这一座右铭,时刻清醒地认识到还有工作要做。
P04839:06
One of them is to do a better performance on Sprite and BODYARMOR and our supply chain, going into next year. All in all, we believe that we have the good momentum as a system and the right plans to navigate through the rest of the year in 2027.
其中1项工作就是在进入明年时改善 Sprite、BODYARMOR 以及我们供应链的表现。总而言之,我们相信作为1个系统,我们拥有良好的增长势头和恰当的计划,能够顺利走完今年剩余时间并迈入2027年。
P04939:27
John MurphyPresident and CFO
Yeah, I would just add, Filippo, if you are looking at the overall volume number, the restaurant industry continues to be under pressure. When you are looking at the scanner data, I think you are seeing a stronger business at home versus away from home, largely driven by consumer pressures that we have talked about in the past. While our own business continues to have a lot of momentum across those channels, I think the underlying pressure across the consumer landscape is there, and I think it will be there for the rest of the year as we go into 2027.
是的,Filippo,我补充一点:如果你看整体销量数据,餐饮行业目前仍在承受压力。当你看零售扫描数据(scanner data)时,我想你会发现居家渠道(at home)的业务表现强于户外即饮渠道(away from home),这主要是受我们过去谈到过的消费者压力所驱动。虽然我们自身的业务在这些渠道中都继续保持着强劲势头,但我认为消费大环境面临的潜在压力依然存在,而且我认为在今年剩余时间乃至进入2027年时,这种压力仍将持续存在。
P05040:08
Henrique BraunCEO
Yeah.
是的。
P05140:11
Operator
Our next question comes from Andrea Teixeira from JPMorgan. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
我们的下一个问题来自摩根大通(JPMorgan)的 Andrea Teixeira。请讲,您的线路已接通。
P05240:18
Andrea TeixeiraExecutive Director, JPMorgan
Hi, good morning, everyone. I have a question on exploring the theme of affordability and of course, among all the CPGs, you have significant brand equity. How should we be thinking about the list pricing and your bottling partners have historically been able to take pricing in the low single digits. If we put the geographical mix aside, do you think you still can count on RGM capabilities and would still allow some selective pricing, while protecting the entry price points? A clarification on the fourth quarter. You obviously raised guidance, and you have the six fewer selling days. John, you called out the destocking comment, but you had also said that in the third quarter. It was ahead of the third quarter. I was hoping to think about how it is a wide range.
嗨,大家早上好。我有一个关于探讨高性价比(可负担性)主题的问题。当然,在所有快消品(CPG)公司中,你们拥有极为深厚的品牌资产。我们应当如何看待目录价格(表观提价)?历史上你们的装瓶商合作伙伴一直能够实现低个位数的提价。如果把地区结构因素放在一边,您认为你们是否仍能依靠收入增长管理(RGM)能力,在保护入门价格点的同时继续进行一些选择性提价?另外请澄清一下第四季度的情况。你们显然上调了全年指引,同时第四季度要减少6个销售日。John,您提到了去库存的说法,但您在第三季度之前也曾这样说过,结果第三季度浓缩液发货反而超前了。我希望能理解一下,这是否留下了较大的弹性空间?
P05341:20
Of course, a minimum five allows you to have a wide range there. Just thinking how demand and destocking and how we should be thinking how many points of headwind that could be. Thank you.
当然,至少增长5%的指引给了你们相当宽裕的空间。我只是想了解需求与去库存的具体情况,以及我们应当认为这会带来多少个百分点的逆风。谢谢。
P05441:35
Henrique BraunCEO
Okay, Andrea, I will start with your question on, especially on our strategy on affordability, and John can chime in on the outlook. Look, the affordability, you need to look at this on the full context of revenue growth management. It is one of the legs of how we get closer to the consumer these days. The premiumization is equally important, so we always look at both. What we are seeing across the world, and this is something that, especially in my travel the last quarter, going, divide and conquering here with John going different parts of the world. We have seen that value continues to be something that cuts across every market and every consumer that we see all over the world. And value means different things for the consumer, which then touches into affordability and premiumization in a way that we capitalize that in our plans.
好的,Andrea,我先回答你关于高性价比策略的问题,随后 John 可以补充谈谈业绩展望。关于高性价比,你需要把它放在收入增长管理(RGM)的完整框架下来审视。它是如今我们拉近与消费者距离的支柱之1。高端化同样重要,所以我们始终是双管齐下。放眼全球,特别是结合我上个季度的出差见闻——我和 John 分头走访了世界不同地区——我们看到,“价值”依然是一个贯穿全球所有市场、所有消费者的核心议题。而“价值”对不同消费者而言意味着不同的东西,进而延伸到高性价比和高端化两个层面,我们也在业务计划中充分把握了这一点。
P05542:37
Let me elaborate on that. On the affordability, what we always look at is, do we have the right value, the relevance of that brand, and the worth choosing option for the consumer to keep them in the franchise? If the answer is yes, we continue to push forward and get more coverage of that packaging format. If not, we adapt our plans and put that in place. A good example of that is what we did in Africa, piggybacking from what we have learned in India, where they had one package, which is a single-serve PET package with plasma technology that can allow you to go in longer routes and still keep the shelf life high. Now we imported that into Africa, and that plays on affordability on both of these markets.
让我详细阐述一下。在高性价比方面,我们始终审视的是:我们是否提供了恰当的价值、品牌相关性以及“值得选择”的产品选项,从而把消费者留存在我们的品牌阵营中?如果答案是肯定的,我们就会继续向前推进,扩大该包装形态的终端覆盖面。如果答案是否定的,我们就会调整计划并落实到位。我们在非洲的做法就是1个很好的例子:我们借鉴了在印度积累的经验——印度有1种采用等离子涂层技术的单次饮用 PET 塑料瓶包装,能够支持更长距离的配送路线并依然保持较长的保质期。如今我们把这项技术引入了非洲,在印非两个市场同时奏响了高性价比牌。
P05643:34
It is going to continue to be very important moving forward because the consumer loves the brands, but needs to be closer to what they can afford. On the premiumization side, that is equally important in this equation. We play at the category mix. There are few brands that continue to help us with that. In North America, you got Core Power, you got smartwater, and you got in other parts of the world also different packaging sizes that allows us to play with the convenience. That value equation for the consumer also works really well. In the overall RGM strategy, we end up delivering what we need. So it goes in tandem, affordability and premiumization. That is what you are going to see not only the rest of the year, but building into 2027. John, if you want to add on that.
展望未来,这一点仍将非常重要,因为消费者热爱我们的品牌,但产品必须贴近他们的承受能力。而在高端化方面,它在这一等式中同样重要。我们在品类结构上做文章,有几个品牌持续为我们提供助力。在北美,我们有 Core Power、smartwater;在世界其他地区,我们也有不同的包装规格,使我们能够主打便利性。这一价值方程式对消费者而言同样非常奏效。在整体收入增长管理战略下,我们最终交付了所需的业绩。因此,高性价比与高端化是并驾齐驱的。这不仅是你在今年剩余时间里会看到的,也将一直延续到2027年。John,看看你是否要补充。
P05744:32
John MurphyPresident and CFO
Yeah, Andrea, the whole marriage of unit cases with our concentrate shipments this year has proven to be maybe the more challenging year since I have been around, for a few reasons. You have got the first quarter and the fourth quarter, the +6 to -6 days. We have, as we have seen since the start of the year around the world, an external environment that is quite unpredictable, and I think our system has a tendency to want to get ahead of that. So the expectation that we highlighted in guidance reflects the best information we have at the moment. There is a couple of our segments where we do expect to see some destocking on the back of what has happened year to date. But we have still got some distance to go in the year and we are keeping a close eye on this area.
好的,Andrea。今年要把单位箱销量与我们的浓缩液发货量严丝合缝地对齐,证明或许是我任职以来最具挑战性的一年,原因有几点。首先,第一季度和第四季度分别有+6天和-6天的日历变动。其次,正如我们自年初以来在全球各地所看到的那样,外部环境相当难以预测,我认为我们的系统往往倾向于提前备货以应对不确定性。因此,我们在指引中强调的预期,反映了我们目前所掌握的最佳信息。鉴于年初至今的发货情况,我们确实预计有几个分部会在第四季度出现一些去库存。但距离年底还有一段时间,我们正密切关注这一领域。
P05845:42
With six less days, it's difficult to predict with accuracy just the cutoffs as we move towards the end of the year. That's the best information we have at the moment, based on all the inputs we get from around the world. If there are changes through the quarter, we'll certainly have the opportunity to update closer to the end of the year.
由于第四季度减少了6天,随着年底临近,很难精确预测截单时点的具体影响。以上是我们基于从全球各地汇总的所有信息,目前所掌握的最佳判断。如果季度期间情况发生变化,我们完全有机会在临近年底时提供最新进展。
P05946:15
Operator
Our next question comes from Robert Ottenstein from Evercore. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
我们的下一个问题来自 Evercore 的 Robert Ottenstein。请讲,您的线路已接通。
P06046:20
Robert OttensteinSenior Managing Director and Head of Global Beverages and Household Products Team, Evercore
Great. Thank you very much. You had a pretty nice increase in your guidance for free cash flow. Your leverage is down to I think 1.3, you said. I was wondering if you could talk about the drivers on the free cash flow. Then you mentioned in the opening comments about increased optionality from your strong free cash flow and balance sheet going into 2027. Maybe if you could elaborate on that and then put these comments in the context of potential outcomes from the IRS case. Thank you.
太好了,非常感谢。你们对自由现金流指引作出了相当可观的上调。你们的净债务杠杆率我记得您刚才是说降到了1.3倍。我想请您谈谈自由现金流强劲增长的驱动因素。另外,您在开场发言中提到,强劲的自由现金流和稳健的资产负债表为进入2027年带来了更大的灵活选择空间(optionality)。您能否就此详细阐述一下,并结合美国国税局(IRS)税务案件的潜在结果来谈谈这些表述?谢谢。
P06147:06
John MurphyPresident and CFO
Thank you. Let me take those one by one. Free cash flow year to date, three primary drivers. The first and the most important one is underlying business performance has been strong. We continue to make progress on working capital initiatives. Our cash conversion cycle, if I get it correct, is as good as it's been for many years at the moment. Then we have some timing that'll play its way through the rest of the year. For example, our CapEx year to date is a little behind what you would typically expect, and we expect that to make up in the fourth quarter. Key message, though, is free cash flow is strong, and we've got momentum as we close out the year into next year.
谢谢你。让我逐一回答这些问题。年初至今的自由现金流主要有3个驱动因素。第1个也是最重要的1个因素,是基础业务表现非常强劲。我们在营运资本改善举措上继续取得进展。如果我没记错的话,目前我们的现金转换周期(cash conversion cycle)正处于多年来的最佳水平。此外还有一些时点性因素会在今年剩余时间里逐步消化。例如,我们年初至今的资本开支进度比通常预期的略慢一些,我们预计将在第四季度补上。但核心信息在于,我们的自由现金流十分强劲,在收官今年、迈向明年之际保持着良好的势头。
P06248:11
We've used the word optionality very deliberately over the last number of months because we are in a situation where we're anticipating a decision in the coming months in the IRS case. At the same time, we continue to think ahead as to the various outcomes that that decision could generate and feel good where we are with respect to being able to manage a best and worst case scenario. The name of the game has really been to strengthen the balance sheet. I believe our balance sheet today is in as good a shape as it's been for many years and to be ready in 2027 to deliver on the priorities that we outlined in the script. We'll continue to invest in the business, primarily in the short term, organically. We remain open to other opportunities. We don't see them in the immediate horizon.
在过去几个月里,我们非常刻意地使用了“灵活选择空间(optionality)”这个词,因为我们正处于预计未来几个月内美国国税局(IRS)税务案件将迎来裁决的阶段。与此同时,我们继续前瞻性地推演该裁决可能产生的各种结果,并对我们目前有能力应对最好情况和最坏情况感到踏实。核心任务一直是强化资产负债表。我认为我们今天的资产负债表正处于多年来的最佳状态,使我们能够在2027年做好充分准备,去兑现我们在发言稿中阐述的各项优先事项。我们将继续投资于业务,短期内主要以内生投资为主。我们对其他机会也保持开放态度,但目前在近期视野内尚未看到此类机会。
P06349:21
As always, we're here to return capital to our share owners. Again, at the moment, that's primarily through our dividend. So, think of the work to date has been focused on strengthening the balance sheet, being ready for a decision and the outcome of that decision to do the right thing for the business and to be ready for whatever that might mean in 2027 and 2028.
一如既往,我们的使命是向股东返还资本。同样,目前这主要是通过派发股息来实现。因此,可以把我们迄今为止的工作重点理解为:强化资产负债表,为即将到来的裁决及其结果做好准备,以便为业务做出正确的决策,并无论裁决结果在2027年和2028年意味着什么都能从容应对。
P06449:59
Operator
Our next question comes from Peter Grom from UBS. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
我们的下一个问题来自瑞银(UBS)的 Peter Grom。请讲,您的线路已接通。
P06550:05
Peter GromEquity Research Analyst, UBS
Great. Thank you. Good morning, everyone. I wanted to follow up on Filippo's question on North America. You touched on some of the timing dynamics, but you also mentioned that you saw sequential improvement in volume performance each month throughout the quarter. So I was wondering if you could elaborate on that, and have you seen that momentum continue into the fourth quarter? Then, John, you touched on the at home versus away from home component. I'd be curious if you've seen any notable shifts in that dynamic as the year has progressed. Thanks.
太好了,谢谢。大家早上好。我想跟进一下刚才 Filippo 关于北美业务的问题。您谈到了一些时点动态,但您也提到在整个季度内看到了销量表现逐月环比改善。不知您能否就此详细谈谈,您是否看到这一势头延续到了第四季度?另外,John,您刚才谈到了居家渠道与户外即饮渠道的对比。我很想知道随着今年时间的推移,您是否看到这一动态出现了任何显著的变化?谢谢。
P06650:36
Henrique BraunCEO
On the volume, yes, we saw that improvement month-on-month on the quarter. The biggest impact in that was really what we said before was the July 4th impact that fell into the Q2. We knew that we would start the first month of the quarter lagging behind it. What we have seen, and I mentioned, when we look at the overall flat volume for the quarter, we are cycling a good performance of Topo Chico last year as well, which has also an impact on that. We just got back with Topo Chico in Texas, so it is great news, I think, to everybody and to the consumers that have been waiting for too long. It is the first step back, and we will sequence that moving into 2027. That volume will start to come back. Definitely, it is something that we are looking forward to.
在销量方面,是的,我们在本季度内看到了逐月环比改善。其中影响最大的因素,确实就是我们之前说过的落入第二季度的7月4日独立日假期影响。我们早就知道本季度第1个月的开局会因此滞后。正如我刚才提到的,当我们审视本季度整体持平的销量时,我们还在消化去年 Topo Chico 的良好业绩基数,这也对销量造成了影响。好消息是,我们的 Topo Chico 刚刚在得克萨斯州恢复上市,我想这对所有人以及苦苦等待了太久的消费者来说都是个大好消息。这是回归的第1步,我们将在迈入2027年的过程中按步骤逐步推进铺货。这部分销量将会开始回流,这无疑是我们非常期待的事情。
P06751:51
The other ones, really the momentum that we have. We grew Coca-Cola trademark, like we mentioned, really good growth on the Zero variant as well. Life continues to grow. Powerade grew as well. Fresca, Mr. Pibb has been another very good surprise. Still small in the overall volume to impact the overall volume for North America, but within the innovation pipeline, it is something that we are very excited with that. All in all, what we see is we have the momentum. We got the right plans in place. But we have also going into the Q4, which is important to reinforce, the biggest quarter that we had in North America last year, and we have 6 less days. You need to compose that with the equation. But when you look into a daily average sales, we have the momentum that was built over the quarter.
至于其他品牌,确实展现出我们所拥有的强劲势头。正如刚才所提到的,可口可乐主品牌实现了增长,零糖产品也实现了非常出色的增长。fairlife(原文转录为 Life)继续增长,Powerade 同样实现增长。Fresca 和 Mr. Pibb 则是另一个非常令人惊喜的亮点。虽然它们在整体销量中的占比还小,不足以撼动北美整体销量大盘,但在创新产品管线中,这令我们感到非常振奋。总而言之,我们看到自己拥有良好的增长势头,并且已经制定了恰当的计划。但进入第四季度时——有一点必须再次强调——第四季度是我们去年在北美基数最大的季度,而且今年第四季度还要减少6天。在测算时必须把这一因素考虑进去。但如果按日均销售额(daily average sales)来看,我们拥有在本季度建立起来的良好势头。
P06852:59
Operator
Our next question comes from Peter Galbo from Bank of America. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
我们的下一个问题来自美国银行(Bank of America)的 Peter Galbo。请讲,您的线路已接通。
P06953:06
Peter GalboManaging Director and Head of US Consumer Staples Equity Research, Bank of America
Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking the question. John, I was just hoping to get maybe a clarification, and then the question is tied to that. But on the currency FX guidance for 2027, I just wanted to understand if that was updated through yesterday and the context of it being, obviously, there has been some pretty big currency movements even in the last 48 hours in some big, important markets for you. I know you caveated your commentary that there is many factors that could impact currency between now and February, but just want to understand kind of in real time how you are thinking about that, given some of the moves that we have had and whether that is embedded in the slight headwind kind of outlook that you have for 2027 at this point. Thanks very much.
嘿,早上好。感谢接受我的提问。John,我希望能澄清一点,我的问题也与此相关。关于2027年的汇率(FX)指引,我想了解这一测算是否更新到了昨天?背景在于,显然哪怕就在过去48小时内,你们几个非常重要的大型市场也出现了相当剧烈的汇率波动。我知道您在发言中加了限定条件,指出从现在到2月份之间有很多因素可能影响汇率,但我只是想了解,鉴于近期出现的汇率波动,您目前实时是如何看待这一点的?你们目前对2027年“轻微汇率逆风”的展望中是否已经计入了这一波动?非常感谢。
P07053:52
John MurphyPresident and CFO
Yeah, great question. The short answer is no. We need to take into account what's unfolded over the last 24 to 48 hours. We will continue to do so. As you've seen throughout the year, there's been quite a lot of movement. So it's one we're watching very carefully. If there's sufficient movement over the course of the next number of weeks, we certainly would want to provide an update on that. As I say, there's been quite a lot of swings throughout the course of this year. It's one to keep watch on. But the numbers that I talked about in the script do not reflect the movement in the BRL, particularly over the last day or two.
是的,非常好的问题。简短的回答是:没有。我们需要把过去24至48小时内发生的情况纳入考量,并且我们会继续跟踪评估。正如你在今年全年所看到的,汇率已经出现了相当多的波动。所以这是我们正在非常密切关注的1项因素。如果在接下来几周内出现足够大的变动,我们当然会希望就此提供最新更新。正如我所说,今年全年汇率已经历了相当多的起伏,需要持续留意。但我在发言稿中谈到的数据,并未反映特别是过去1至2天内巴西雷亚尔(BRL)的汇率变动。
P07155:00
Operator
Our next question comes from Kaumil Gajrawala from Jefferies. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
我们的下一个问题来自富瑞(Jefferies)的 Kaumil Gajrawala。请讲,您的线路已接通。
P07255:06
Kaumil GajrawalaManaging Director of Beverage, Household Products and HALO Strategy, Jefferies
Hey, guys. I guess first, sorry to belabor the point, but just for purposes of clarity, on the destocking, is the full year intended to be below, in line, or above, in terms of concentrate versus shipments? Maybe if there are particular regions where the destocking is expected to occur, I think that'd be useful. On gross margin, with such a strong concentrate shipment number, can you give some context of leverage on the GM and maybe leverage on the SG&A line as well, and how it sort of works top to bottom? Because you probably won't have this spread going forward. To what degree can you help us forecast what margins would look like in the context of maybe better aligned unit case volume and gross margins? Thank you.
嘿,各位。首先,抱歉还要在这个问题上追问,但为了明确起见,关于去库存:就全年浓缩液发货量与单位箱销量的对比而言,全年预计是低于、持平还是高于终端销量?如果能说明预计哪些特定地区会出现去库存,我想会很有帮助。另外在毛利率方面,鉴于本季度浓缩液发货数据如此强劲,您能否谈谈这对毛利率(GM)乃至销售、一般及管理费用(SG&A)产生了多大的经营杠杆效应,以及它是如何从顶线向底线传导的?因为未来你们可能不会再有这么大的发货超前差额。如果未来单位箱销量与浓缩液发货更加一致,您能在多大程度上帮助我们预测毛利率会呈现怎样的表现?谢谢。
P07356:00
John MurphyPresident and CFO
Sure. On the destocking, as I said in the previous question on this topic, it's somewhat of an anomalous year in trying to predict exactly. Right now, if you ask me, we expect shipments to run slightly behind volumes for the full year. That's our ingoing assumption that's linked to the guidance that we've provided. As I've said, there's a lot happening around the world, and there's every possibility that that could deviate. But that's the ingoing assumption as we head into the rest of the year. On your margin question, if I line up cases, shipments, everything else, we expect to have margin expansion for the full year. Again, the exact amounts that we're anticipating, it's really on trend with what we've seen thus far this year.
当然可以。关于去库存,正如我在回答上一个关于该话题的问题时所说,今年是个比较特殊的年份,很难做出分毫不差的预测。如果现在问我,我们预计全年浓缩液发货量将略微滞后于终端单位箱销量。这是我们制定当前业绩指引时所依据的基准假设。正如我所说,世界各地每天都在发生很多变化,实际情况完全有可能出现偏离。但这是我们进入今年剩余时间所依据的基准假设。关于你的利润率问题,如果把单位箱销量、浓缩液发货量以及其他所有因素综合起来看,我们预计全年将实现利润率扩张。至于我们预期的具体扩张幅度,实际上与我们今年迄今所看到的趋势是一致的。
P07457:30
Operator
Our next question comes from Kevin Grundy from PMB Barba. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
我们的下一个问题来自 PMB Barba(注:应为法国巴黎银行 BNP Paribas)的 Kevin Grundy。请讲,您的线路已接通。
P07557:37
Kevin GrundyManaging Director, BNP Paribas
Great. Thanks. Good morning, everyone, and congrats on another strong quarter. You've mentioned the brand twice, but haven't spent a lot of time on the strategy, and that's fairlife, which has been a fantastic success story. Additional capacity came on this year, so we've seen a nice re-acceleration in the scanner data. So a few questions related to the brand. One, can you talk about updated plans and how you're defining success? Two, where you see the brand sourcing occasions at the moment? And then three, maybe an update on the opportunity for the brand outside of the U.S., understanding the supply chain complexities. So thank you.
太好了,谢谢。大家早上好,祝贺你们再创强劲季度业绩。你们刚才2次提到了一个品牌,但还没有花太多时间探讨其战略,那就是 fairlife——它一直是一个极其成功的典范。今年新增产能陆续上线,因此我们在零售扫描数据中看到了可喜的增长再加速。我有几个与该品牌相关的问题:第1,您能否谈谈最新的规划以及你们如何定义成功?第2,目前您看到该品牌的消费场景主要来自哪里?第3,考虑到供应链的复杂性,能否介绍一下该品牌在美国以外市场的拓展机遇?谢谢。
P07658:14
Henrique BraunCEO
Okay. Thanks, Kevin. Look, we love the brand, as you know, and fantastic performance. We're pleased to see, number one, another quarter of strong and double-digit growth across all the variants, right? So fairlife, the Nutrition Plan, and also on Core Power, and that has been really encouraging. You remember that at the beginning of the year, we're still lagging behind the demand and supply with the ramp-up of Webster. So we're getting better and better at that with the ramp-up of the plant, to the extent that we were able to launch also a new flavor for Nutrition Plan, the vanilla flavor, which is doing really well as well. We announced already that we're going to have in the pipeline going to 2027, the banana flavor, which is great, right?
好的,谢谢你,Kevin。如你所知,我们非常钟爱这个品牌,它的表现也堪称卓越。第1,我们很高兴看到它在旗下所有产品系列中再次实现了强劲的双位数增长——无论是 fairlife 主系列、Nutrition Plan 还是 Core Power,这都令人备受鼓舞。你还记得在今年年初,随着 Webster 新工厂推进产能爬坡,我们的供应仍然滞后于市场需求。随着工厂产能不断爬坡,我们在供需匹配方面做得越来越好,甚至已经能够为 Nutrition Plan 推出1款新口味——香草味,而且市场反响也非常好。我们已经宣布,在迈向2027年的产品管线中还将推出香蕉味,这太棒了,对吧?
P07759:18
We have a lot of fans for that flavor, and it's something that we always wanted to start expanding. So the good news is we're getting the product back on the shelf to keep up with the demand, and the pipeline looks strong going into 2027. When you look at overall investment ahead of United States and Canada that we have today, we're still working around it. The brand has tremendous equity value, and that it's going to be embedded into our long-range plan. So more to come on that. But the number one priority for us right now is to keep up with the demand in these markets because there's still plenty of growth opportunities for us, and it's important component of our growth moving forward.
我们有很多喜爱香蕉味的粉丝,这也是我们一直希望开始扩展的方向。所以好消息是,我们正让产品重新摆满货架以满足市场需求,同时迈向2027年的新品管线看起来也十分强劲。如果看我们在目前的美国和加拿大市场之外的总体投资布局,我们仍在筹划之中。该品牌拥有巨大的品牌资产价值,这一点将被纳入我们的长期规划(long-range plan)之中,后续会有更多消息。但眼下我们的第1要务是在现有市场跟上需求增长的步伐,因为这些市场仍有充沛的增长空间,也是我们未来增长的重要组成部分。
P0781:00:20
Operator
Our last question today comes from Bonnie Herzog from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
我们今天的最后1个问题来自高盛(Goldman Sachs)的 Bonnie Herzog。请讲,您的线路已接通。
P0791:00:35
Henrique BraunCEO
Bonnie? Maybe on mute.
Bonnie?可能静音了。
P0801:00:51
John MurphyPresident and CFO
There is no Bonnie.
Bonnie 不在线上。
P0811:00:53
Henrique BraunCEO
I think we got to the end then.
我想那我们就到这里吧。
P0821:00:55
John MurphyPresident and CFO
Yeah.
好的。
P0831:00:55
Henrique BraunCEO
Okay, great. Look, to close us out, our performance reflects the hard work of our teams and partners around the world who continue to stay close to consumers and doing a little bit better every day, and we are very pleased with that. We are confident in our ability to deliver our 2026 and long-term objectives. Thank you for your interest, for your investment in our company, and for joining us this morning. Thank you so much.
好的,太好了。最后作个总结:我们的业绩体现了全球团队和合作伙伴的辛勤付出,他们继续紧贴消费者,并在每一天都做得好一点点,我们对此感到非常满意。我们对兑现2026年及长期目标的能力充满信心。感谢各位的关注、对我们公司的投资,以及今天上午的参与。非常感谢大家。
P0841:01:25
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.
女士们、先生们,今天的电话会议到此结束。感谢各位的参与。您现在可以挂断电话了。