FY2026Q2 电话会逐字稿
发言人
点击某位发言人,只突出显示其发言;再次点击恢复| 姓名 | 职位 | 机构 | 段落 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lisa Su | Chair and CEO | AMD | 44 |
| Jean Hu | EVP, CFO, and Treasurer | AMD | 15 |
| Operator | 12 | ||
| Matt Ramsay | VP of Financial Strategy and Investor Relations | AMD | 6 |
| Stacy Rasgon | Analyst | Bernstein Research | 3 |
| C.J. Muse | Analyst | Cantor | 3 |
| Tom O'Malley | Analyst | Barclays | 2 |
| Timothy Arcuri | Analyst | UBS | 2 |
| Vivek Arya | Analyst | Bank of America Securities | 2 |
| Joshua Buchalter | Analyst | TD Cowen | 2 |
| Aaron Rakers | Analyst | Wells Fargo | 2 |
| James Schneider | Analyst | Goldman Sachs | 2 |
| Joseph Moore | Analyst | Morgan Stanley | 2 |
| Atif Malik | Analyst | Citi | 2 |
● 公司管理层 / 主持人 ● 外部分析师
P00100:00
Operator
Greetings, welcome to the AMD second quarter 2026 conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A question and answer session will follow the formal presentation. If anyone should require operator assistance during the conference, please press star zero on your telephone keypad. Please note that this conference is being recorded. I will now turn the conference over to Matt Ramsay, VP of Financial Strategy and IR. Thank you, Matt. You may begin.
大家好,欢迎参加 AMD 2026 年第二季度财报电话会。目前所有参会者均处于静音收听模式。正式陈述结束后将进入问答环节。如在会议期间需要接线员协助,请按电话键盘上的星号键加 0。请注意,本次会议正在录音。现在我将把会议交给财务战略与投资者关系副总裁 Matt Ramsay。谢谢你,Matt,请开始。
P00200:32
Matt RamsayVP of Financial Strategy and Investor Relations
Thank you, welcome to AMD's second quarter 2026 financial results conference call. By now, you should have had the opportunity to review a copy of our earnings press release and the accompanying slides. If you have not had the chance to review these materials, they can be found on the investor relations page of amd.com. Today, we will refer primarily to non-GAAP financial measures during the call. The full non-GAAP to GAAP reconciliations are available in today's press release and slides posted on our website. As a reminder, our second quarter 2025 results included approximately $800 million of inventory and related charges associated with U.S. export control restrictions on MI308 shipments to China. Unless otherwise noted, comments making year-over-year comparisons exclude the impact of those charges to provide a more comparable and meaningful view of our underlying business performance.
谢谢大家,欢迎参加 AMD 2026 年第二季度财务业绩电话会。到目前为止,各位应该已经有机会审阅了我们的财报新闻稿及配套幻灯片。如果尚未审阅这些材料,可在 amd.com 的投资者关系页面查阅。今天我们在电话会上将主要引用非公认会计准则(non-GAAP)财务指标。完整的非公认会计准则与公认会计准则(GAAP)调节表可在今天发布的新闻稿及网站幻灯片中查阅。在此提醒各位,我们 2025 年第二季度的业绩包含了与美国针对向中国出货 MI308 的出口管制限制相关的约 8 亿美元存货及相关费用。除非另有说明,进行同比比较的评论均剔除了这些费用的影响,以提供更具可比性和更有意义的底层业务表现视图。
P00301:31
Participants on today's conference call are Dr. Lisa Su, our Chair and CEO, Jean Hu, our Executive Vice President, CFO, and Treasurer. This is a live call, will be replayed via webcast on our website. Before we begin, I would like to note that AMD will participate in the following events for the financial community: KeyBank's Technology Leadership Forum on Tuesday, August 11th, Citi's 2026 Global TMT Conference on Tuesday, September 8th, and the Goldman Sachs Communacopia and Technology Conference on Friday, September 11th. Today's discussions contain forward-looking statements based on the current beliefs, assumptions, expectations, including forward-looking statements regarding financial projections, business and industry trends that speak only as of today, as such, involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from our current expectations.
参加今天电话会的有我们的董事长兼首席执行官 Lisa Su 博士,以及我们的执行副总裁、首席财务官兼司库 Jean Hu。本次电话会为现场直播,并将通过我们网站的网络广播提供重播。在开始之前,我想提一下,AMD 将参加以下面向金融界的活动:8 月 11 日星期二的 KeyBank 科技领导力论坛、9 月 8 日星期二的花旗 2026 年全球 TMT 大会,以及 9 月 11 日星期五的高盛 Communacopia 与科技大会。今天的讨论包含基于当前信念、假设和预期的前瞻性陈述(包括有关财务预测、业务和行业趋势的前瞻性陈述),仅代表截至今日的观点,因此涉及可能导致实际结果与当前预期存在重大差异的风险和不确定性。
P00402:30
Please refer to the cautionary statement in our press release for more information on these factors that could cause actual results to differ materially. With that, I will hand the call over to Lisa.
关于可能导致实际结果出现重大差异的这些因素的更多信息,请参阅我们新闻稿中的警示性声明。接下来,我把电话交给 Lisa。
P00502:43
Lisa SuChair and CEO
Thank you, Matt, and good afternoon to all those listening today. We delivered another outstanding quarter with record revenue and profitability as adoption of our leadership products continued to expand. Revenue increased 50% year-over-year to $11.5 billion, driven by significantly higher sales of EPYC, Instinct, Ryzen, and embedded processors. Data center revenue more than doubled year-over-year and now represents 58% of total revenue, up from 42% a year ago, reflecting the rapidly expanding scale of our server and data center AI businesses. Our record results mark another clear step up in AMD's financial performance and demonstrate the strength of our product portfolio and execution.
谢谢你,Matt,今天收听电话会的各位下午好。随着我们领先产品的采用率持续扩大,我们又交付了一个极其出色的季度,营收和盈利能力双双创下历史新高。受 EPYC、Instinct、Ryzen 和嵌入式处理器销量显著增长的推动,营收同比增长 50% 至 115 亿美元。数据中心营收同比翻倍以上,目前占总营收的 58%,高于去年同期的 42%,反映出我们服务器和数据中心 AI 业务规模的迅速扩张。我们创纪录的业绩标志着 AMD 财务表现再上新台阶,并彰显了我们产品组合与执行力的强劲实力。
P00603:30
We are still in the early stages of a multi-year AI adoption cycle as deployments grow across a broad set of markets and workloads, driving demand for more compute and creating a clear path to significant revenue growth and earnings power in the years ahead. Turning to our segments, data center revenue grew 107% year-over-year to a record $6.7 billion, driven by strong demand for EPYC processors and Instinct accelerators. In server, we delivered our fifth consecutive quarter of record server CPU revenue, with cloud and enterprise sales each growing more than 70% year-over-year, exceeding the outlook we provided last quarter. We gained x86 server revenue share year-over-year as customers expanded deployments of both fifth-gen EPYC Turin and fourth-gen EPYC Genoa families. In cloud, hyperscalers continued expanding EPYC across their internal infrastructure and public cloud offerings, including AWS, Microsoft, Google, Oracle, and others.
随着部署在广泛的市场和工作负载中不断增长,我们仍处于多年期 AI 应用周期的早期阶段,这正在推动对更多算力的需求,并为未来几年的显著营收增长和盈利能力铺平了清晰道路。来看我们的各个分部,受 EPYC 处理器和 Instinct 加速器强劲需求的推动,数据中心营收同比增长 107%,达到创纪录的 67 亿美元。在服务器领域,我们连续第五个季度实现创纪录的服务器 CPU 营收,面向云和企业客户的销售额同比均增长超过 70%,超出了我们上季度给出的展望。随着客户扩大第 5 代 EPYC Turin 和第 4 代 EPYC Genoa 系列的部署,我们的 x86 服务器营收份额实现了同比提升。在云领域,超大规模云厂商继续在其内部基础设施和公有云服务中扩大 EPYC 部署,包括 AWS、Microsoft、Google、Oracle 等。
被引用:↩ 基本面档案 · 商业模式与收入结构↩ FY2026Q2 季度复盘 · 分部表现↩ FY2026Q2 老唐风格精评 · 二、扒一扒三大印钞机:服务器 CPU 抢地盘,AI 机柜抱紧顶级金主 · 1. 数据中心分部(`DATA_CENTER`):当之无愧的顶梁柱↩ FY2026Q2 电话会解析 · 核心判断↩ FY2026Q2 电话会解析 · 管理层发言解析 · Lisa Su|Chair and CEO↩ 指引与语气 · 指引演变 · 服务器 CPU 增速与 2030 年潜在市场规模(`server_cpu_growth` & `server_cpu_tam_2030`)↩ 指引与语气 · 指引可信度↩ 推理时代算力分流:定制 ASIC 与开放架构能不能抢走通用 GPU 的份额? · 核心判断↩ 推理时代算力分流:定制 ASIC 与开放架构能不能抢走通用 GPU 的份额? · 核心争议拆解 · 争议四:智能体(Agentic AI)改写算力配比——为什么每个智能体背后的 CPU 沙盒成了新胜负手?
P00704:38
Fifth-gen EPYC Turin now powers nearly one-third of the more than 1,600 EPYC public cloud instance types available globally as providers broaden their offerings with new database storage and AI workloads. That expanding footprint is translating into growing adoption of EPYC in the cloud, with healthcare, financial services, media, and technology companies adding tens of millions of instances in the last quarter. In enterprise, we delivered record sales in our fourth consecutive quarter of record sell-through as on-prem adoption accelerated, driven by the leadership performance and TCO advantages of our EPYC portfolio. Growth was broad-based as we won large deployments with leading financial services, manufacturing, telecom, retail, and technology companies. More than 230 fifth-gen EPYC platforms are now in market from HPE, Dell, Lenovo, Supermicro, and others, our broadest enterprise portfolio to date.
随着云服务商围绕新的数据库、存储和 AI 工作负载拓宽服务阵容,第 5 代 EPYC Turin 目前驱动着全球超过 1,600 种 EPYC 公有云实例类型中的近三分之一。不断扩大的部署足迹正在转化为云端 EPYC 采用率的持续增长,上季度医疗保健、金融服务、媒体和科技公司新增了数以千万计的实例。在企业客户领域,受我们 EPYC 产品组合领先的性能和总体拥有成本(TCO)优势推动,本地部署采用率加速提升,我们实现了创纪录的销售额,并连续第四个季度创下终端出货量(sell-through)纪录。增长呈全面开花之势,我们在领先的金融服务、制造、电信、零售和科技企业中赢得了大型部署项目。目前来自 HPE、Dell、Lenovo、Supermicro 等厂商的超过 230 款第 5 代 EPYC 平台已上市销售,这是我们迄今为止最广泛的面向企业客户的产品组合。
P00805:42
Looking ahead, agentic AI is creating a new growth vector for server CPUs, spanning high-frequency AI host nodes, high-density agentic servers, and general-purpose cloud and enterprise workloads. Our sixth-gen EPYC Venice family is purpose-built for this expanding range of workloads and delivers one of the largest generational performance gains in EPYC history. Built on our all-new Zen 6 core and two nanometer technology, Venice extends EPYC leadership in performance and efficiency, delivering more than twice the performance per watt of leading x86 CPUs and up to 3.3 times the performance per watt of leading Arm-based CPUs. The Venice family includes more than 30 processors that combine leadership per core and per socket performance with a broad range of memory and IO configurations, giving customers greater flexibility to optimize performance, efficiency, and TCO across the most widely used cloud, enterprise, and HPC workloads.
展望未来,智能体 AI 正在为服务器 CPU 创造新的增长引擎,涵盖高频 AI 主机节点(host nodes)、高密度智能体服务器以及通用云和企业客户工作负载。我们的第 6 代 EPYC Venice 系列专为这一不断扩展的工作负载范围而打造,实现了 EPYC 历史上最大的代际性能跃升之一。Venice 基于我们全新的 Zen 6 核心和 2 纳米技术构建,扩大了 EPYC 在性能和能效方面的领先优势,每瓦性能达到领先 x86 CPU 的两倍以上,并高达领先 Arm 架构 CPU 的 3.3 倍。Venice 系列包含超过 30 款处理器,将领先的单核与单插槽性能同广泛的内存和 IO 配置相结合,使客户能够在最广泛使用的云、企业客户和高性能计算(HPC)工作负载中更灵活地优化性能、效率和总体拥有成本(TCO)。
被引用:↩ 基本面档案 · 护城河与竞争格局↩ FY2026Q2 季度复盘 · 电话会要点 · 分部与业务动态↩ FY2026Q2 老唐风格精评 · 二、扒一扒三大印钞机:服务器 CPU 抢地盘,AI 机柜抱紧顶级金主 · 1. 数据中心分部(`DATA_CENTER`):当之无愧的顶梁柱 ×2↩ FY2026Q2 电话会解析 · 管理层发言解析 · Lisa Su|Chair and CEO↩ 指引与语气 · 语气变化↩ 推理时代算力分流:定制 ASIC 与开放架构能不能抢走通用 GPU 的份额? · 核心判断 ×2↩ 推理时代算力分流:定制 ASIC 与开放架构能不能抢走通用 GPU 的份额? · 技术路线与客户分单账本 · 表一:三强算力架构、机柜互联路线与单吉瓦经济账矩阵↩ 推理时代算力分流:定制 ASIC 与开放架构能不能抢走通用 GPU 的份额? · 核心争议拆解 · 争议四:智能体(Agentic AI)改写算力配比——为什么每个智能体背后的 CPU 沙盒成了新胜负手? ×2
P00906:46
Venice is in production now, with every major OEM on track to launch platforms and the leading cloud providers planning deployments beginning later this year. Customer demand for Venice is stronger than for any prior EPYC generation, and we expect to continue growing market share across cloud and enterprise in the coming quarters. Turning to our data center AI business, revenue more than doubled year-over-year, driven by strong demand for Instinct accelerators. MI355X adoption continued to broaden as leading AI companies scaled deployments across a growing range of inferencing and training workloads and cloud providers expanded MI350 series availability. At our Advancing AI event, we launched Helios, our rack scale AI platform combining EPYC Venice CPUs, MI450 series GPUs, Pensando networking, and ROCm software.
Venice 目前已投入量产,各大主要 OEM 厂商均按计划推进平台发布,领先的云服务商也计划于今年晚些时候开始部署。客户对 Venice 的需求比以往任何一代 EPYC 都要强劲,我们预计未来几个季度将在云和企业客户市场继续扩大市场份额。转向我们的数据中心 AI 业务,受对 Instinct 加速器强劲需求的推动,营收同比翻倍以上。随着领先的 AI 公司在日益广泛的推理和训练工作负载中扩大部署规模,以及云服务商扩大 MI350 系列的可用性,MI355X 的采用范围持续拓宽。在我们的 Advancing AI 大会上,我们发布了机架级 AI 平台 Helios,它将 EPYC Venice CPU、MI450 系列 GPU、Pensando 网络以及 ROCm 软件融为一体。
P01007:46
Across a broad range of inferencing workloads, Helios delivers up to 15% more throughput at the same rack power and up to 30% more tokens per dollar than the competition. Customer pull for Helios is very strong and tracking ahead of our initial forecasts. In addition to our multi-generation gigawatt scale deployments with OpenAI and Meta, we announced a new strategic partnership with Anthropic. Anthropic will deploy up to 2 gigawatts of MI450 series GPUs in Helios, with deployment of the first gigawatt beginning in the first half of 2027. The partnership includes a multi-year joint engineering collaboration using Claude to optimize workloads for Instinct CPUs and accelerate ROCm software development. We also expanded our longstanding partnership with Microsoft. Microsoft will deploy Helios at scale on Azure for frontier model inferencing across Microsoft, its AI customers, and Azure AI services.
在广泛的推理工作负载中,与竞争对手相比,Helios 在相同机架功率下可提供高达 15% 的吞吐量提升,每美元生成的 token 数量高出多达 30%。客户对 Helios 的拉动需求非常强劲,进展超出了我们的最初预测。除了我们与 OpenAI 和 Meta 开展的多代吉瓦级部署合作外,我们还宣布了与 Anthropic 的新战略合作伙伴关系。Anthropic 将在 Helios 机架中部署高达 2 吉瓦(GW)的 MI450 系列 GPU,其中首个 1 吉瓦的部署将于 2027 年上半年启动。该合作还包括一项多年期联合工程协作,利用 Claude 针对 Instinct GPU 优化工作负载并加速 ROCm 软件开发。我们还扩大了与 Microsoft 的长期合作伙伴关系。Microsoft 将在 Azure 上大规模部署 Helios,为 Microsoft 自身、其 AI 客户以及 Azure AI 服务提供前沿模型推理算力支持。
被引用:↩ 基本面档案 · 投资要点↩ 基本面档案 · 护城河与竞争格局 ×2↩ FY2026Q2 季度复盘 · 电话会要点 · 分部与业务动态 ×2↩ FY2026Q2 季度复盘 · 对投资逻辑的影响↩ 估值 · 两阶段 DCF↩ FY2026Q2 老唐风格精评 · 二、扒一扒三大印钞机:服务器 CPU 抢地盘,AI 机柜抱紧顶级金主 · 1. 数据中心分部(`DATA_CENTER`):当之无愧的顶梁柱 ×2↩ FY2026Q2 电话会解析 · 核心判断 ×2↩ FY2026Q2 电话会解析 · 管理层发言解析 · Lisa Su|Chair and CEO↩ FY2026Q2 电话会解析 · 对投资判断的含义↩ 指引与语气 · 指引演变 · 数据中心 AI 与长期财务模型(`datacenter_ai_and_segment_outlook` & `long_term_financial_model`)↩ 指引与语气 · 语气变化↩ 推理时代算力分流:定制 ASIC 与开放架构能不能抢走通用 GPU 的份额? · 核心判断 ×2↩ 推理时代算力分流:定制 ASIC 与开放架构能不能抢走通用 GPU 的份额? · 技术路线与客户分单账本 · 表一:三强算力架构、机柜互联路线与单吉瓦经济账矩阵 ×2↩ 推理时代算力分流:定制 ASIC 与开放架构能不能抢走通用 GPU 的份额? · 技术路线与客户分单账本 · 表二:全球六大超级买家(Hyperscalers & Frontier Labs)真实分单全景账本 ×3↩ 推理时代算力分流:定制 ASIC 与开放架构能不能抢走通用 GPU 的份额? · 核心争议拆解 · 争议二:单卡参数已死,机柜互联定胜负——专有 NVLink 6 体系 vs 博通/AMD 以太网开放结盟 ×3↩ 推理时代算力分流:定制 ASIC 与开放架构能不能抢走通用 GPU 的份额? · 多方原话交锋与验真标尺 · 对质一:定制 XPU 与开放机柜 vs 通用 GPU 的性能与成本↩ 推理时代算力分流:定制 ASIC 与开放架构能不能抢走通用 GPU 的份额? · 多方原话交锋与验真标尺 · 未来 2–4 个季度检验「算力分流」走向的四大标尺
P01108:51
Together, these commitments broaden the group of leading AI companies and cloud providers building their next generation infrastructure on AMD. Helios is now in production with initial shipments on track to begin later this quarter and ramp through the fourth quarter and into 2027 to meet very strong customer demand. Looking beyond Helios, we plan to launch a new rack scale AI platform every year with each generation delivering significant performance, efficiency, and TCO gains. In 2027, our next generation platform combines MI500 series GPUs, Verona CPUs, and Pensando networking with expanded scale-up domains and both copper and optical-based interconnects. Customer engagement on MI500 is very strong, with multiple customers working closely with us as they plan their next generation AI infrastructure. We expect MI500 to deliver the largest generational leap in Instinct history, putting us on track to increase inferencing performance more than 2,000 times in just four years.
这些承诺共同拓宽了基于 AMD 构建下一代基础设施的领先 AI 公司和云服务商阵容。Helios 目前已投入量产,初始出货仍按计划将于本季度晚些时候开始,并在第四季度及进入 2027 年持续爬坡放量,以满足非常强劲的客户需求。展望 Helios 之后的发展,我们计划每年推出一代新的机架级 AI 平台,每一代都将在性能、效率和总体拥有成本(TCO)上实现显著跃升。2027 年,我们的下一代平台将结合 MI500 系列 GPU、Verona(注:应为 Verano)CPU 和 Pensando 网络,并配备扩展的纵向扩展域(scale-up domains)以及基于铜缆和光互联的连接方案。客户在 MI500 上的合作参与度非常高,多家客户正在规划下一代 AI 基础设施时与我们密切配合。我们预计 MI500 将实现 Instinct 历史上最大的代际飞跃,使我们按计划在短短四年内将推理性能提升 2,000 倍以上。
被引用:↩ 基本面档案 · 投资要点↩ FY2026Q2 季度复盘 · 分部表现↩ FY2026Q2 季度复盘 · 电话会要点 · 分部与业务动态↩ FY2026Q2 电话会解析 · 管理层发言解析 · Lisa Su|Chair and CEO↩ 推理时代算力分流:定制 ASIC 与开放架构能不能抢走通用 GPU 的份额? · 技术路线与客户分单账本 · 表一:三强算力架构、机柜互联路线与单吉瓦经济账矩阵 ×2↩ 推理时代算力分流:定制 ASIC 与开放架构能不能抢走通用 GPU 的份额? · 核心争议拆解 · 争议二:单卡参数已死,机柜互联定胜负——专有 NVLink 6 体系 vs 博通/AMD 以太网开放结盟↩ 推理时代算力分流:定制 ASIC 与开放架构能不能抢走通用 GPU 的份额? · 多方原话交锋与验真标尺 · 对质二:机柜内纵向互联(Scale-Up)——NVLink 专属 vs 以太网开放
P01210:04
Turning to our AI software stack, ROCm has reached an important inflection point with the performance, capabilities, and developer experience customers need to deploy AI in production at scale. The breadth of the ecosystem also continues to expand. More than 3 million models now run out of the box on AMD, the leading open models launch with day zero support for Instinct, and open source contributions to ROCm have increased more than tenfold over the past year. We introduced ROCm.AI, our new AI-assisted development platform for AMD GPUs, last month. ROCm.AI lets developers use today's leading coding agents, including Claude, Codex, and Cursor to create, port, and optimize code for Instinct, making it significantly faster and easier to bring new models and workloads to AMD. ROCm.AI delivers more than twice the training performance and more than three times the inferencing performance of ROCm 7 across a broad range of models.
转向我们的 AI 软件栈,ROCm 已迎来重要的拐点,具备了客户在生产环境中大规模部署 AI 所需的性能、功能和开发者体验。生态系统的广度也在持续扩展。目前有超过 300 万个模型可在 AMD 平台上开箱即用,领先的开源模型在发布首日(day zero)即支持 Instinct,过去一年开源社区对 ROCm 的代码贡献增加了十倍以上。上个月,我们推出了面向 AMD GPU 的全新 AI 辅助开发平台 ROCm.AI。ROCm.AI 让开发者能够使用当今领先的编程智能体(包括 Claude、Codex 和 Cursor)为 Instinct 创建、移植和优化代码,使新模型和工作负载迁移至 AMD 平台的速度显著加快、过程更加简便。在广泛的模型中,ROCm.AI 的训练性能达到 ROCm 7 的两倍以上,推理性能达到三倍以上。
P01311:08
We are also working closely with the leading AI labs, including OpenAI, Anthropic, Meta, and others to co-optimize ROCm for their models with the improvements benefiting the entire AMD ecosystem. Taking a step back, the overall data center market opportunity is expanding far more rapidly than we projected just six months ago. As AI moves into production across a broader range of applications and workloads, demand for both accelerators and CPUs is growing well above our prior expectations. We now expect the data center AI accelerator market to grow more than 45% annually to approximately $1.4 trillion by 2030. We expect the server CPU market to grow more than 50% annually to approximately $220 billion by 2030. For AMD, this larger opportunity, combined with the strength of our portfolio and growing customer visibility, is creating a steeper growth trajectory for our data center business.
我们还与包括 OpenAI、Anthropic、Meta 等在内的领先 AI 实验室密切合作,针对他们的模型联合优化 ROCm,相关改进成果将惠及整个 AMD 生态系统。退一步从全局看,整体数据中心市场机遇的扩张速度远超我们仅仅六个月前的预测。随着 AI 在更广泛的应用和工作负载中进入生产环境,对加速器和 CPU 的需求增长均远高于我们此前的预期。我们现在预计数据中心 AI 加速器市场将以每年超过 45% 的速度增长,到 2030 年达到约 1.4 万亿美元。我们预计服务器 CPU 市场将以每年超过 50% 的速度增长,到 2030 年达到约 2,200 亿美元。对 AMD 而言,这一更大的市场机遇,加上我们强大的产品组合和不断提升的客户可见度,正在为我们的数据中心业务创造一条更为陡峭的增长曲线。
被引用:↩ 基本面档案 · 投资要点↩ 基本面档案 · 护城河与竞争格局↩ FY2026Q2 季度复盘 · 结论摘要↩ FY2026Q2 季度复盘 · 电话会要点 · 指引与展望↩ FY2026Q2 季度复盘 · 管理层口径变化↩ FY2026Q2 老唐风格精评 · 二、扒一扒三大印钞机:服务器 CPU 抢地盘,AI 机柜抱紧顶级金主 · 1. 数据中心分部(`DATA_CENTER`):当之无愧的顶梁柱↩ FY2026Q2 电话会解析 · 核心判断 ×2↩ FY2026Q2 电话会解析 · 管理层发言解析 · Lisa Su|Chair and CEO↩ FY2026Q2 电话会解析 · 措辞与语气信号↩ 指引与语气 · 核心结论↩ 指引与语气 · 指引演变 · 服务器 CPU 增速与 2030 年潜在市场规模(`server_cpu_growth` & `server_cpu_tam_2030`)
P01412:12
In Data Center AI, the growing number and scale of Helios and MI450 Series Instinct deployments position the business for significant growth in the second half of the year, with growth accelerating in 2027. In server CPUs, with very strong customer demand and improved supply, we now expect server revenue to grow more than 80% year-over-year in the second half of 2026 and more than 70% for the full year 2027 off a much higher base. Taken together, we now expect data center segment revenue to more than double year-over-year in 2027. Turning to client and gaming, segment revenue grew 6% year-over-year to $3.8 billion. In client, revenue increased 23% year-over-year to $3.1 billion, driven by record mobile processor revenue and continued share gains.
在数据中心 AI 领域,Helios 和 MI450 系列 Instinct 部署数量和规模的不断增长,使该业务有望在今年下半年实现显著增长,并在 2027 年加速增长。在服务器 CPU 领域,凭借非常强劲的客户需求和改善的供应能力,我们现在预计 2026 年下半年服务器营收将同比增长超过 80%,并在基数大幅抬升的基础上,于 2027 年全年实现超过 70% 的增长。综合来看,我们现在预计 2027 年数据中心分部营收将实现同比翻倍以上增长。转向客户端与游戏分部,分部营收同比增长 6% 至 38 亿美元。在客户端业务中,受创纪录的移动处理器营收和持续的市场份额提升推动,营收同比增长 23% 至 31 亿美元。
被引用:↩ 基本面档案 · 投资要点 ×2↩ 基本面档案 · 关键跟踪指标↩ FY2026Q2 季度复盘 · 结论摘要↩ FY2026Q2 季度复盘 · 管理层口径变化 ×2↩ FY2026Q2 季度复盘 · 对投资逻辑的影响 ×2↩ 估值 · 方法选择↩ 估值 · 两阶段 DCF↩ 估值 · 分部加总 SOTP↩ FY2026Q2 老唐风格精评 · 二、扒一扒三大印钞机:服务器 CPU 抢地盘,AI 机柜抱紧顶级金主 · 1. 数据中心分部(`DATA_CENTER`):当之无愧的顶梁柱 ×2↩ FY2026Q2 老唐风格精评 · 五、老唐毛估估:按计算器称一称,8400 亿市值贵不贵? ×3↩ FY2026Q2 电话会解析 · 核心判断↩ FY2026Q2 电话会解析 · 管理层发言解析 · Lisa Su|Chair and CEO↩ FY2026Q2 电话会解析 · 措辞与语气信号↩ FY2026Q2 电话会解析 · 对投资判断的含义↩ 指引与语气 · 核心结论↩ 指引与语气 · 指引演变 · 服务器 CPU 增速与 2030 年潜在市场规模(`server_cpu_growth` & `server_cpu_tam_2030`)↩ 指引与语气 · 指引演变 · 数据中心 AI 与长期财务模型(`datacenter_ai_and_segment_outlook` & `long_term_financial_model`)↩ 指引与语气 · 语气变化
P01513:10
Commercial adoption continued to expand in the quarter, with Ryzen PRO sales growing more than 50% year-over-year as we closed new wins with large healthcare, technology, automotive, and financial services companies. To build on this momentum, Dell, HP, Lenovo, Asus, and others launched a broad portfolio of new commercial PCs powered by our latest generation Ryzen AI PRO 400 Series processors. Demand was also strong for our Ryzen AI Halo developer systems, which went on sale in the quarter. In July, we introduced our next generation Ryzen AI Halo platform, powered by our new Gorgon Halo processor, featuring an industry-leading 192 gigabytes of unified memory and can run models with up to 300 billion parameters.
本季度商用采用率继续扩大,随着我们在大型医疗保健、科技、汽车和金融服务公司中斩获新订单,Ryzen PRO 销售额同比增长超过 50%。为了巩固这一势头,Dell、HP、Lenovo、Asus 等厂商推出了搭载我们最新一代 Ryzen AI PRO 400 系列处理器的广泛商用 PC 新品阵容。本季度上市销售的 Ryzen AI Halo 开发者系统需求也十分强劲。今年 7 月,我们推出了下一代 Ryzen AI Halo 平台,搭载全新的 Gorgon Halo 处理器,配备行业领先的 192 GB 统一内存,可运行参数量高达 3,000 亿的模型。
P01614:03
To make it even easier for developers to build and test large AI models locally, we are partnering with Hugging Face to include one year of Hugging Face Pro with every Ryzen AI Halo system beginning later this year. Looking to the second half of the year, we're planning for a softer PC market as higher memory and component costs weigh on demand. Against this backdrop, we expect our client business to perform better than the market, driven by the strength of our Ryzen portfolio and growing commercial adoption. In gaming, revenue declined 31% year-over-year to $779 million, primarily due to lower semi-custom sales at this stage of the console cycle. Gaming graphics revenue also declined year-over-year as higher industry-wide component costs contributed to higher graphics card prices and weighed on overall demand.
为了让开发者更容易在本地构建和测试大型 AI 模型,我们正与 Hugging Face 合作,从今年晚些时候开始,随每台 Ryzen AI Halo 系统附赠一年的 Hugging Face Pro 订阅服务。展望今年下半年,由于较高的内存和组件成本压制需求,我们按 PC 市场走软来规划业务。在此背景下,受 Ryzen 产品组合实力和商用采用率不断提升的推动,我们预计客户端业务表现将优于大盘。在游戏业务中,营收同比下降 31% 至 7.79 亿美元,主要是由于处于主机周期当前阶段,半定制业务销售额有所下降。由于全行业组件成本上升推高了显卡价格并压制了整体需求,游戏图形业务营收同比也有所下降。
被引用:↩ 基本面档案 · 主要风险 · 消费级 PC 与游戏业务受元器件涨价与周期拖累↩ FY2026Q2 季度复盘 · 分部表现↩ FY2026Q2 季度复盘 · 管理层口径变化↩ 估值 · 分部加总 SOTP↩ FY2026Q2 老唐风格精评 · 二、扒一扒三大印钞机:服务器 CPU 抢地盘,AI 机柜抱紧顶级金主 · 3. 客户端与游戏分部(`CLIENT_AND_GAMING`):商用 PC 争气,游戏主机拖后腿↩ FY2026Q2 电话会解析 · 管理层发言解析 · Lisa Su|Chair and CEO↩ FY2026Q2 电话会解析 · 对投资判断的含义↩ 指引与语气 · 指引演变 · 客户端与游戏业务展望(`client_and_gaming_outlook`)↩ 指引与语气 · 需要跟踪的信号
P01714:58
Turning to our embedded segment, revenue increased 19% year-over-year to $977 million, our strongest growth in more than three years. Demand was broad-based with strength across networking, aerospace and defense, test measurement and emulation, and communications customers. Our embedded x86 business grew significantly in the quarter as hyperscalers and networking customers increasingly adopted our CPUs to power critical networking and control plane functions in the data center. We also continued to expand our portfolio, introducing Ryzen AI Embedded X100 processors for demanding real-time edge AI workloads and the Kria AI robotics platform for physical AI. Looking more broadly, the strategy we have been executing over the last few years is now delivering strong results. Embedded x86 is becoming a significant growth driver for the segment. Our overall embedded portfolio is outgrowing the market and gaining share, and our embedded semi-custom engagements are expanding.
转向我们的嵌入式分部,营收同比增长 19% 至 9.77 亿美元,创下三年多以来的最强增速。需求呈全面开花之势,网络、航空航天与国防、测试测量与仿真以及通信客户均表现强劲。本季度我们的嵌入式 x86 业务实现了显著增长,因为超大规模云厂商和网络客户越来越多地采用我们的 CPU 来驱动数据中心内的关键网络和控制平面功能。我们还继续扩展产品组合,推出了面向高要求实时边缘 AI 工作负载的 Ryzen AI Embedded X100 处理器,以及面向物理 AI(physical AI)的 Kria AI 机器人平台。从更广泛的层面来看,我们过去几年一直执行的战略正在结出硕果。嵌入式 x86 正成为该分部的重要增长驱动力,我们的整体嵌入式产品组合增速跑赢市场并不断扩大份额,同时我们的嵌入式半定制合作也在持续扩大。
P01816:06
Design win momentum also remains very strong. We are tracking towards another record year with more than $18 billion of new design wins, led by major wins with networking, data center, communications, tests, and aerospace and defense customers. In summary, we delivered record revenue and profitability in the second quarter, reflecting our strong execution and the growing adoption of our leadership products. We enter the second half with strong momentum across our businesses. With Venice and MI450X now in production, initial Helios shipments set to begin this quarter, Ryzen PRO CPUs driving continued commercial share gains, and our embedded segment returning to strong year-over-year growth.
设计中标(design win)势头依然非常强劲。我们正朝着又一个创纪录的年份迈进,新设计中标金额已超过 180 亿美元,主要由网络、数据中心、通信、测试以及航空航天与国防客户的重大中标项目领衔。总而言之,我们在第二季度实现了创纪录的营收和盈利能力,反映出我们强大的执行力以及领先产品不断扩大的采用率。我们带着各项业务的强劲势头迈入下半年:Venice 和 MI450X 现已投入量产,Helios 初始出货定于本季度启动,Ryzen PRO CPU 推动商用市场份额持续提升,同时嵌入式分部重回强劲的同比增长轨道。
P01916:52
More than a decade of focused investment has given us the strongest and broadest product portfolio in the industry, deep strategic relationships with the companies driving the future of computing, and a proven ability to deliver multi-generation roadmaps and ramp complex products at scale. At the same time, AI is driving demand for dramatically more compute across all of our markets. We now see the overall market for high performance and AI computing growing approximately 40% annually over the next several years, approaching $2 trillion by 2030, and we expect to grow well above the market. As a result, we are tracking materially ahead of the long-term financial model we shared at our Financial Analyst Day last November. We now expect revenue to grow substantially above our prior target of greater than 35%, and we expect to significantly exceed our $20 annual EPS target within our strategic timeframe.
十余年专注的投入为我们带来了行业内最强大、最广泛的产品组合,与推动未来计算发展的核心企业建立了深厚的战略合作关系,并练就了交付多代产品路线图及规模化量产复杂产品的可靠能力。与此同时,AI 正在推动我们所有市场的算力需求出现爆发式增长。我们现在预计,未来几年高性能计算和 AI 计算的整体市场规模将以每年约 40% 的速度增长,到 2030 年接近 2 万亿美元,而我们预计自身增速将远高于市场水平。因此,我们的实际进展已经显著超前于去年 11 月在财务分析师日上分享的长期财务模型。我们现在预计营收增速将大幅高于此前大于 35% 的目标,并预计在战略时间框架内显著超越 20 美元的年度每股收益(EPS)目标。
被引用:↩ FY2026Q2 季度复盘 · 电话会要点 · 指引与展望↩ FY2026Q2 季度复盘 · 管理层口径变化 ×2↩ 估值 · 方法选择↩ 估值 · PEG↩ FY2026Q2 老唐风格精评 · 五、老唐毛估估:按计算器称一称,8400 亿市值贵不贵?↩ FY2026Q2 电话会解析 · 管理层发言解析 · Lisa Su|Chair and CEO ×2↩ FY2026Q2 电话会解析 · 措辞与语气信号↩ 指引与语气 · 指引演变 · 数据中心 AI 与长期财务模型(`datacenter_ai_and_segment_outlook` & `long_term_financial_model`)↩ 指引与语气 · 语气变化
P02017:53
We are still in the early innings of a multi-year AI adoption cycle, and the opportunity ahead is enormous. We are exceptionally well positioned to capitalize on this opportunity and deliver significant growth in the coming years. Now I will turn the call over to Jean to provide additional color on our second quarter results. Jean?
我们仍处于多年期 AI 应用周期的早期阶段,前方的机遇极其巨大。我们处于极其有利的地位来把握这一机遇,并在未来几年实现显著增长。现在我将把电话交给 Jean,由她为第二季度业绩提供更多细节说明。Jean?
P02118:13
Jean HuEVP, CFO, and Treasurer
Thank you, Lisa, and good afternoon, everyone. I'll start with a review of our second quarter financial results and then provide our current outlook for the third quarter of fiscal 2026. We had an outstanding second quarter, marking our sixth consecutive quarter of greater than 30% year-over-year revenue growth. Revenue increased 50% year-over-year and 13% sequentially to a record $11.5 billion, driven by continued momentum across our businesses. Importantly, data center accounted for approximately 58% of total revenue, underscoring the continued shift in our business mix and its increasing contribution to AMD's growth. On a comparable basis, diluted earnings per share increased approximately 82% year-over-year, significantly outpacing our revenue growth and demonstrating our earnings power as we scale our business.
谢谢你,Lisa,大家下午好。我将先回顾第二季度的财务业绩,随后提供我们对 2026 财年第三季度的最新展望。我们交付了一个极其出色的第二季度,这是我们连续第六个季度实现超过 30% 的营收同比增长。受各项业务持续强劲势头的推动,营收同比增长 50%、环比增长 13%,达到创纪录的 115 亿美元。重要的是,数据中心占总营收的约 58%,凸显出我们业务结构的持续转型及其对 AMD 增长越来越大的贡献。在可比基础上,摊薄后每股收益同比增长约 82%,显著快于营收增速,展现出随着业务规模扩大我们的盈利能力。
P02219:16
Gross margin for the quarter expanded to 56%, up over 200 basis points year-over-year and 80 basis points sequentially, reflecting a favorable product mix and a growing contribution from our data center business. Operating expenses were $3.4 billion, an increase of 40% year-over-year, as we continue to invest in R&D to expand our AI silicon systems and software capabilities to support our long-term growth opportunities. Operating income was $3.1 billion, representing a 27% operating margin. Now turning to our reportable segment, starting with the data center segment. Revenue was a record $6.7 billion, more than doubling year-over-year and up 16% sequentially. Growth was driven by greater than 70% year-over-year increase in EPYC sales, with record enterprise sell-through and robust demand across our cloud customer base.
本季度毛利率扩大至 56%,同比提升超过 200 个基点,环比提升 80 个基点,反映出有利的产品组合以及数据中心业务贡献的不断提升。营业费用为 34 亿美元,同比增长 40%,因为我们继续投入研发以扩展 AI 芯片、系统和软件能力,从而支持长期增长机遇。营业利润为 31 亿美元,营业利润率为 27%。现在来看我们的报告分部,首先从数据中心分部开始。营收达到创纪录的 67 亿美元,同比翻倍以上,环比增长 16%。增长主要由 EPYC 销售额同比增长超过 70% 所推动,其中企业客户终端出货量(sell-through)创下历史新高,且云客户群需求强劲。
P02320:21
Both unit shipments and ASP increased significantly year-over-year, reflecting the continued mix shift toward our latest Zen 5 generation processors. Instinct sales more than doubled year-over-year with the continued ramp of our Instinct MI350 Series of products as adoption broadened across the largest AI labs, cloud providers, leading AI startups, national labs, and the sovereign AI deployment. Data center segment operating income was $2.1 billion, or 31% of revenue. Client and gaming segment revenue was $3.8 billion, up 6% year-over-year and 7% sequentially. The client business revenue was $3.1 billion, up 23% year-over-year and 6% sequentially, led by record mobile revenue. The gaming business revenue was $779 million, down 31% year-over-year, primarily due to lower semi-custom revenue. Sequentially, gaming revenue increased 8%, driven by higher semi-custom sales, partially offset by lower Radeon shipments.
出货量和平均售价(ASP)均实现显著同比增长,反映出产品组合持续向最新一代 Zen 5 处理器升级。随着 Instinct MI350 系列产品持续放量,并在最大的 AI 实验室、云服务商、领先的 AI 初创公司、国家实验室以及主权 AI 部署中不断拓宽采用范围,Instinct 销售额同比翻倍以上。数据中心分部营业利润为 21 亿美元,占营收的 31%。客户端与游戏分部营收为 38 亿美元,同比增长 6%,环比增长 7%。其中客户端业务营收为 31 亿美元,同比增长 23%,环比增长 6%,主要由创纪录的移动处理器营收带动。游戏业务营收为 7.79 亿美元,同比下降 31%,主要是由于半定制业务营收减少。环比来看,受半定制销售额上升带动(部分被 Radeon 出货量减少所抵消),游戏业务营收环比增长 8%。
P02421:38
Client gaming segment operating income was $582 million or 15% of revenue, compared to $767 million or 21% a year ago, reflecting continued investment in go-to-market activities and an expanding product roadmap. Embedded segment revenue was $977 million, up 19% year-over-year and 12% sequentially as demand continued to improve across end markets and the new design wins began ramping. Embedded segment operating income was $386 million, or 40% of revenue, compared to $275 million or 33% a year ago, driven by higher revenue and the favorable product mix. Turning to the balance sheet and the cash flow. During the quarter, we generated $2.4 billion in cash from continuing operations and $1.6 billion in free cash flow. Inventory increased sequentially to approximately $8.5 billion to support strong data center demand. At the end of the quarter, cash equivalents, and short-term investment were $13.1 billion.
客户端与游戏分部营业利润为 5.82 亿美元,占营收的 15%,而去年同期为 7.67 亿美元或占营收的 21%,反映出我们在市场推广(go-to-market)活动和扩充产品路线图方面的持续投入。嵌入式分部营收为 9.77 亿美元,同比增长 19%,环比增长 12%,主要得益于终端市场需求持续改善以及新设计中标项目开始放量。受营收增加和有利产品组合的推动,嵌入式分部营业利润为 3.86 亿美元,占营收的 40%,而去年同期为 2.75 亿美元或占营收的 33%。转向资产负债表和现金流。本季度我们从持续经营业务中产生了 24 亿美元的现金流,以及 16 亿美元的自由现金流。为支持强劲的数据中心需求,存货环比增加至约 85 亿美元。截至季度末,现金、现金等价物及短期投资为 131 亿美元。
P02522:56
Turning to our third quarter 2026 outlook. We expect revenue to be approximately $13 billion ±$300 million. At the middle point of our guidance, revenue is expected to be up 41% year-over-year, driven by very strong double-digit growth in our Data Center segment, strong double-digit growth in our Embedded segment, and the decline in the Client Gaming segment with growth in our Client business more than offset by significant double-digit decline in Gaming. Sequentially, we expect revenue to be up approximately 13%, driven by strong double-digit growth in both our Data Center and Embedded segments and a modest decline in our Client Gaming segment with slight growth in Client offset by strong double-digit decline in Gaming.
转向我们对 2026 年第三季度的展望。我们预计营收约为 130 亿美元,上下浮动 3 亿美元。按指引中值计算,预计营收将同比增长 41%,主要得益于数据中心分部非常强劲的两位数增长、嵌入式分部强劲的两位数增长,而客户端与游戏分部将有所下降(其中客户端业务的增长被游戏业务显著的两位数下滑所抵消)。环比来看,我们预计营收将增长约 13%,主要受数据中心和嵌入式分部强劲的两位数增长推动,而客户端与游戏分部将略有下降(其中客户端业务的小幅增长被游戏业务显著的两位数下滑所抵消)。
被引用:↩ 基本面档案 · 关键跟踪指标↩ 基本面档案 · 主要风险 · 消费级 PC 与游戏业务受元器件涨价与周期拖累↩ FY2026Q2 季度复盘 · 结论摘要↩ FY2026Q2 季度复盘 · 业绩与指引 ×3↩ FY2026Q2 季度复盘 · 管理层口径变化↩ 估值 · 分部加总 SOTP↩ 估值 · 结论与需要跟踪的信号↩ FY2026Q2 老唐风格精评 · 二、扒一扒三大印钞机:服务器 CPU 抢地盘,AI 机柜抱紧顶级金主 · 3. 客户端与游戏分部(`CLIENT_AND_GAMING`):商用 PC 争气,游戏主机拖后腿↩ FY2026Q2 老唐风格精评 · 五、老唐毛估估:按计算器称一称,8400 亿市值贵不贵?↩ FY2026Q2 电话会解析 · 核心判断↩ FY2026Q2 电话会解析 · 管理层发言解析 · Jean Hu|EVP, CFO, and Treasurer↩ FY2026Q2 电话会解析 · 对投资判断的含义↩ 指引与语气 · 核心结论 ×2↩ 指引与语气 · 指引演变 · 下季营业收入(`revenue_next_quarter`) ×3↩ 指引与语气 · 指引演变 · 客户端与游戏业务展望(`client_and_gaming_outlook`)↩ 指引与语气 · 需要跟踪的信号↩ 推理时代算力分流:定制 ASIC 与开放架构能不能抢走通用 GPU 的份额? · 多方原话交锋与验真标尺 · 未来 2–4 个季度检验「算力分流」走向的四大标尺
P02623:54
We expect third quarter non-GAAP gross margin to be approximately 56%, non-GAAP operating expenses to be approximately $3.65 billion, non-GAAP other income and expense to be again of approximately $55 million, non-GAAP effective tax rate to be 13%, and the diluted share count is expected to be approximately 1.66 billion shares. We delivered another outstanding quarter of revenue growth and a significant earnings expansion, reflecting the strength of our execution and the strong momentum across the business. As Data Center growth continue to accelerate, we enter the second half of the year very well-positioned to deliver continued profitable growth. With that, I'll turn it back to Matt for the Q&A session.
我们预计第三季度非公认会计准则毛利率约为 56%,非公认会计准则营业费用约为 36.5 亿美元,非公认会计准则其他收支预计为净收益约 5,500 万美元,非公认会计准则有效税率为 13%,摊薄后股数预计约为 16.6 亿股。我们又交付了一个营收增长和盈利显著扩张的出色季度,反映出我们强大的执行力以及各项业务的强劲势头。随着数据中心增速持续加快,我们处于非常有利的位置迈入下半年,以实现持续的盈利性增长。接下来,我把电话交还给 Matt 进入问答环节。
被引用:↩ FY2026Q2 季度复盘 · 业绩与指引 ×2↩ 估值 · 分部加总 SOTP↩ FY2026Q2 老唐风格精评 · 三、显微镜看异动与“猫腻”:Non-GAAP 的化妆术与 HBM 备货大赌局 · 3. 多装 50% 高带宽内存(HBM)的阳谋与隐忧↩ FY2026Q2 老唐风格精评 · 五、老唐毛估估:按计算器称一称,8400 亿市值贵不贵?↩ FY2026Q2 电话会解析 · 核心判断↩ FY2026Q2 电话会解析 · 管理层发言解析 · Jean Hu|EVP, CFO, and Treasurer ×2↩ FY2026Q2 电话会解析 · 对投资判断的含义↩ 指引与语气 · 核心结论↩ 指引与语气 · 指引演变 · 下季毛利率与中长期毛利率框架(`gross_margin_next_quarter`)↩ 指引与语气 · 指引演变 · 下季营业费用与经营杠杆纪律(`opex_next_quarter`)↩ 指引与语气 · 语气变化↩ 指引与语气 · 指引可信度↩ 指引与语气 · 需要跟踪的信号 ×2↩ 推理时代算力分流:定制 ASIC 与开放架构能不能抢走通用 GPU 的份额? · 核心争议拆解 · 争议三:HBM 内存暴涨下的毛利率传导测试——谁能提价顺导,谁靠砍研发费硬扛,谁靠服务器 CPU 对冲?↩ 推理时代算力分流:定制 ASIC 与开放架构能不能抢走通用 GPU 的份额? · 多方原话交锋与验真标尺 · 未来 2–4 个季度检验「算力分流」走向的四大标尺
P02724:52
Matt RamsayVP of Financial Strategy and Investor Relations
Thank you very much, Jean. John, we'd like to go ahead and start the Q&A session now. Please do poll the audience for questions. We ask that each caller ask one question with one brief follow-up. Thank you.
非常感谢你,Jean。John,我们现在可以开始问答环节了。请征集听众提问。请每位提问者限制在 1 个问题和 1 个简短的追问。谢谢。
问答环节
P02825:04
Operator
Thank you, Matt. We will now be conducting a question and answer session. We ask that you please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. A confirmation tone will indicate that your line is in the question queue. You may press star two if you'd like to remove a question from the queue. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star keys. One moment while we poll for questions. The first question comes from the line of Tom O'Malley with Barclays. Please proceed with your question.
谢谢你,Matt。我们现在开始问答环节。请各位将提问限制在 1 个问题和 1 个追问。如果您想提问,请按电话键盘上的星号键加 1。确认音将表明您的线路已进入提问队列。如果您想从队列中取消提问,可以按星号键加 2。使用免提设备的参会者在按星号键前可能需要先拿起听筒。请稍候,我们正在征集提问。第一个问题来自 Barclays 的 Tom O'Malley。请提问。
P02925:42
Tom O'MalleyAnalyst, Barclays
Thanks for taking my question. Lisa, you laid out the Analyst Day, $1.4 trillion TAM on the accelerator side. You laid out the $220 billion on the CPU side. The share dynamics within those are very different. I think the genesis of the question here is, when do you see that crossover point happening in the data center GPU business and the CPU business? Is that something that comes this calendar year? When you look at the relative contributions between those two buckets into calendar year 2027, from a dollars perspective, where are you seeing the most strength?
感谢接受我的提问。Lisa,你们给出了新的市场预测:加速器侧的潜在市场规模(TAM)为 1.4 万亿美元,CPU 侧为 2,200 亿美元。这两个领域的市场份额动态截然不同。我这个问题的核心在于:你预计数据中心 GPU 业务规模超越 CPU 业务的交叉点(crossover point)会在什么时候到来?会在今年(日历年)发生吗?另外,展望 2027 日历年这两个板块的相对贡献,从美元绝对增量来看,哪一块的增长力道最强?
P03026:18
Lisa SuChair and CEO
Yeah. Tom, thanks for the question. Look, we are certainly seeing a very strong compute market demand over both the data center accelerator as well as the server CPU. I think the server CPU is a little bit newer, we've been giving updates on that. As we go forward, certainly, looking at our Q3 guide and our Q4 guide, we see very strong growth across both server and data center AI. We're seeing server grow over 80% in the second half of the year-over-year. We're seeing very strong data center AI growth, and that reflects into our 2027. The way to think about it is both businesses are going to grow a lot.
好的,Tom,谢谢你的提问。我们在数据中心加速器和服务器 CPU 两方面确实都看到了非常强劲的算力市场需求。我认为服务器 CPU 需求爆发相对较新,我们一直在更新这方面的进展。展望未来,看我们第三季度和第四季度的指引,我们在服务器和数据中心 AI 两方面都看到了非常强劲的增长。我们预计下半年服务器业务将实现超过 80% 的同比增长,同时也看到数据中心 AI 业务实现非常强劲的增长,并且这一势头将延续到 2027 年。理解它的方式是:这两项业务都将实现大幅增长。
P03127:02
The data center AI TAM is certainly larger, as a result, as we ramp the large strategic customers that we have on Helios in 2027, you would expect substantial growth in that business in 2027. Both businesses are very significant drivers of our 2027 growth and beyond.
数据中心 AI 的潜在市场规模(TAM)无疑更大,因此,随着我们在 2027 年推动各大战略客户在 Helios 上的放量,你可以预期该业务在 2027 年将实现巨幅增长。这两项业务都是我们 2027 年及以后增长的非常重要驱动力。
P03227:27
Tom O'MalleyAnalyst, Barclays
Maybe under that framework with both growing very strongly into next year. Maybe this one's for you, Jean. You obviously have some headwinds on the GPU side as you're ramping Helios. Also on the server processor side, you would imagine that you're getting above corporate gross margins there. Maybe as you look at the trade-offs to gross margins into next year, is one kind of offsetting the other? Could you maybe think that directionally, just given some of the tailwinds you're seeing with pricing, directionally with the mix shift to more CPUs, could you see a tailwind more so than a headwind into calendar year 2027? Thank you very much, guys.
在这个两项业务明年都将强劲增长的框架下,我的追问可能提给 Jean。随着你们爬坡量产 Helios,GPU 侧显然会对毛利率带来一些逆风;但在服务器处理器侧,可以想见其毛利率高于公司平均水平。当你权衡明年毛利率的得失时,这两者是否会相互抵消?考虑到你们在价格方面看到的顺风以及产品组合向更多 CPU 倾斜的趋势,展望 2027 日历年,从方向上看,顺风是否会大于逆风?非常感谢各位。
P03328:02
Jean HuEVP, CFO, and Treasurer
Yeah. Tom, that's a great question. Thank you for that. I think as we talked before, our gross margin is primarily driven by the business mix. We're actually very pleased with our gross margin progress in the first half of 2026 and our guidance for Q3 2026. I think the way to think about the 2027 is there are a few puts and takes. The first thing is, as Lisa just mentioned, our server business is expanding very significantly with the increased TAM and the pace of our business continue to grow, which from gross margin perspective is accretive to our overall gross margin. On the other side, you're right, the pace of data center AI ramp is also very important, because from a revenue opportunity perspective, we see large incremental revenue opportunity from data center AI.
好的,Tom,这是一个很好的问题,谢谢你。正如我们之前谈到的,我们的毛利率主要由业务组合决定。我们对 2026 年上半年的毛利率进展以及 2026 年第三季度的毛利率指引感到非常满意。我认为看待 2027 年的方式是存在几个正负影响因素(puts and takes)。首先,正如 Lisa 刚才提到的,随着潜在市场规模(TAM)扩大和业务增速持续加快,我们的服务器业务正在大幅扩张,从毛利率角度来看,这对整体毛利率具有增厚作用。另一方面,你说得对,数据中心 AI 的放量节奏也非常重要,因为从营收机会来看,我们在数据中心 AI 上看到了巨大的增量营收机会。
被引用:↩ FY2026Q2 季度复盘 · 财务拆解 · 增长与利润率↩ FY2026Q2 季度复盘 · 长期趋势异常↩ FY2026Q2 季度复盘 · 电话会要点 · 风险与逆风↩ FY2026Q2 季度复盘 · 对投资逻辑的影响↩ 估值 · 结论与需要跟踪的信号↩ FY2026Q2 老唐风格精评 · 三、显微镜看异动与“猫腻”:Non-GAAP 的化妆术与 HBM 备货大赌局 · 3. 多装 50% 高带宽内存(HBM)的阳谋与隐忧↩ FY2026Q2 电话会解析 · 管理层发言解析 · Jean Hu|EVP, CFO, and Treasurer↩ FY2026Q2 电话会解析 · 问答解析 · Tom O'Malley(Barclays):数据中心 GPU 与 CPU 营收规模交叉点及 2027 年毛利率权衡↩ 推理时代算力分流:定制 ASIC 与开放架构能不能抢走通用 GPU 的份额? · 核心判断↩ 推理时代算力分流:定制 ASIC 与开放架构能不能抢走通用 GPU 的份额? · 核心争议拆解 · 争议三:HBM 内存暴涨下的毛利率传导测试——谁能提价顺导,谁靠砍研发费硬扛,谁靠服务器 CPU 对冲?
P03429:06
Once it ramps, not only it add a tremendous revenue for the company, but also gross profit, even though the gross margin is slightly below corporate average. I think the mix will determine how we go through 2027. Overall, we actually feel good about how we can really navigate through the transition of the business and continue to improve gross margin to manage the balance of the gross margin. Plus, our embedded business is recovering significantly. We actually think embedded business will give us additional tailwind on the gross margin side in 2027. I feel really good about that.
一旦它放量,不仅会为公司带来庞大的营收增量,也会带来丰厚的毛利额,尽管其毛利率略低于公司平均水平。我认为最终的产品组合将决定我们在 2027 年的具体表现。总体而言,我们对平稳度过业务结构转型、继续提升并管理好毛利率平衡感到很有信心。此外,我们的嵌入式业务正在显著复苏,我们认为嵌入式业务将在 2027 年为毛利率带来额外的顺风支撑。因此我对此感到非常有信心。
被引用:↩ 基本面档案 · 护城河与竞争格局↩ FY2026Q2 季度复盘 · 长期趋势异常 ×2↩ FY2026Q2 季度复盘 · 电话会要点 · 风险与逆风↩ FY2026Q2 季度复盘 · 叙事 vs 报表 · 管理层叙事与报表检验↩ FY2026Q2 老唐风格精评 · 三、显微镜看异动与“猫腻”:Non-GAAP 的化妆术与 HBM 备货大赌局 · 3. 多装 50% 高带宽内存(HBM)的阳谋与隐忧↩ FY2026Q2 电话会解析 · 问答解析 · Tom O'Malley(Barclays):数据中心 GPU 与 CPU 营收规模交叉点及 2027 年毛利率权衡 ×2↩ 指引与语气 · 指引演变 · 下季毛利率与中长期毛利率框架(`gross_margin_next_quarter`)↩ 推理时代算力分流:定制 ASIC 与开放架构能不能抢走通用 GPU 的份额? · 核心判断↩ 推理时代算力分流:定制 ASIC 与开放架构能不能抢走通用 GPU 的份额? · 核心争议拆解 · 争议三:HBM 内存暴涨下的毛利率传导测试——谁能提价顺导,谁靠砍研发费硬扛,谁靠服务器 CPU 对冲?↩ 推理时代算力分流:定制 ASIC 与开放架构能不能抢走通用 GPU 的份额? · 多方原话交锋与验真标尺 · 对质三:存储芯片涨价与产品切换下的利润率防线↩ 推理时代算力分流:定制 ASIC 与开放架构能不能抢走通用 GPU 的份额? · 多方原话交锋与验真标尺 · 未来 2–4 个季度检验「算力分流」走向的四大标尺
P03529:54
Operator
Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Timothy Arcuri with UBS. Please proceed with your question.
谢谢。下一个问题来自 UBS 的 Timothy Arcuri。请提问。
P03630:02
Timothy ArcuriAnalyst, UBS
Thanks a lot. Lisa, I wanted to see if you could give us any color, just what's embedded in the guidance in terms of data center. The question really is like, of the growth between Q2 and Q3, which will grow more on a dollar basis, CPU or GPU? I ask because if I take your up 80% half-on-half number, it sort of implies that the server CPU might not grow that much in Q4. I'm not sure if I'm doing that wrong. Can you just give us some color there?
非常感谢。Lisa,我想看看你能否透露一些指引中关于数据中心业务的具体细节。问题在于:在第二季度到第三季度的增长中,按美元绝对额计算,CPU 和 GPU 哪一个增长更多?我之所以这么问,是因为如果按你们说的下半年同比增长 80% 来测算,似乎隐含第四季度服务器 CPU 的环比增长空间不会太大。我不确定自己的测算是否有误,能否为我们提供一些细节说明?
P03730:33
Lisa SuChair and CEO
I'm just looking at that, Tim. Look, I think we believe that the server CPU is going to grow substantially in Q3 and in Q4. The way I would describe it in terms of dynamics is we have very strong demand across all of our customers in hyperscale and enterprise, and we have been adding additional supply as we've increased supply throughout the year. We're guiding the Q3 segment to grow sequentially double digits. Both server and the data center AI will grow nicely within that. We should expect more growth for each of those businesses in Q4, with more supply coming on for server as well as for data center AI. The Helios ramp is just starting at the end of Q3, and it'll be much more substantial in Q4.
我正看着这个数字,Tim。我们认为服务器 CPU 在第三季度和第四季度都将实现可观的增长。如果要描述背后的动态,那就是我们在超大规模云厂商和企业客户中的所有客户需求都非常强劲,而且我们在全年持续增加供应产能。我们指引第三季度数据中心分部环比实现两位数增长,其中服务器和数据中心 AI 都将实现良好的增长。随着服务器和数据中心 AI 的更多供应产能到位,我们预计这两项业务在第四季度都将实现进一步增长。Helios 的量产爬坡在第三季度末才刚刚开始,到第四季度规模会大得多。
P03831:25
That should sort of give you the picture of, we think Q3 is certainly a strong quarter as we look at the very strong double-digit growth going in data center segment, and in Q4, it will be higher than that.
这应该能给你勾勒出一个清晰的图景:鉴于数据中心分部将实现非常强劲的两位数增长,我们认为第三季度无疑是一个强劲的季度,而第四季度的表现还会更高。
P03931:44
Timothy ArcuriAnalyst, UBS
Okay, thanks. Just as a follow-up, relative to the TAM that you laid out at the Analyst Day, I think it's a 40% CAGR out through 2030. Do you think you can outgrow that CAGR out through 2030? Is your plan to grow your revenue more than 40% during that period? Thanks.
好的,谢谢。追问一下,相对于你们给出的到 2030 年复合年增长率(CAGR)为 40% 的整体潜在市场规模(TAM),你们认为到 2030 年自身增速能跑赢这一 CAGR 吗?你们的计划是在此期间实现超过 40% 的营收增长吗?谢谢。
P04032:04
Lisa SuChair and CEO
Yes. As we look at the overall TAM, first of all, it's a very exciting time in the compute market. When you look at every part of our business, whether it's server CPU, data center, AI, or our embedded business and our PC business, we see them all benefiting from the AI tailwinds. Beneath that, I think in each one of the segments, we see an opportunity to grow above the market. From that standpoint, with our view of the TAM being greater than 40%, we are also saying that we will grow greater than that from an overall revenue standpoint for the company.
是的。当我们审视整体潜在市场规模(TAM)时,首先,当前算力市场正处于非常令人振奋的时期。当你观察我们业务的每一个板块——无论是服务器 CPU、数据中心 AI,还是嵌入式业务和 PC 业务——我们看到它们都受益于 AI 的顺风推动。在此基础上,我认为在每一个业务分部中,我们都看到了跑赢市场增速的机会。从这个角度来看,既然我们预计整体 TAM 的增速超过 40%,我们也明确表示公司整体营收的增速将超过这一水平。
P04132:50
Operator
Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Vivek Arya with Bank of America Securities. Please proceed with your question.
谢谢。下一个问题来自 Bank of America Securities 的 Vivek Arya。请提问。
P04232:58
Vivek AryaAnalyst, Bank of America Securities
Thanks for taking my questions. Lisa, I'm curious, with all the announcements that you have made, how many gigawatt of compute does AMD have line of sight into for 2027, and what is AMD's monetization per gigawatt? I think the current assumption, from everything you've announced, is about three gigawatts, and I think from some of the warrant numbers that you had mentioned before, it seems to be at least $15 billion per gigawatt. I'm just curious if you agree with those views, and then what is the upside or downside to either the gigawatt or the content assumption?
感谢接受我的提问。Lisa,我很好奇,综合你们已经发布的所有合作公告,AMD 对 2027 年有明确可见度的算力部署总共有多少吉瓦(GW)?每吉瓦能为 AMD 带来多少变现收入?根据你们已公布的信息,目前市场普遍假设大约是 3 吉瓦,而且根据你们之前提到的一些认股权证(warrant)相关数字,每吉瓦对应的收入似乎至少在 150 亿美元以上。我想知道你是否认同这些看法,以及无论是在吉瓦规模还是单吉瓦价值量假设上,存在哪些上行或下行空间?
P04333:34
Lisa SuChair and CEO
Vivek, there are lots of pieces to that question, maybe let me take them one at a time. From an overall data center standpoint, I think we have given a little bit of color on 2027. We believe that the server CPU portion of our data center business will grow by over 70% year-over-year off of a higher base, and we believe the overall segment will grow by over 100%, more than double, due to the data center AI ramping. We do see a very significant ramp into 2027. We are very happy with our strategic anchor customers in OpenAI, Meta, and Anthropic. They are all in the process of ramping. Compute demand is high, and this is very much aligning their data center build-outs and their work with their cloud service providers together with our ramp.
Vivek,你这个问题包含了很多层面,我逐一回答。从数据中心整体来看,我们已经提供了一些关于 2027 年的展望信息:我们预计数据中心业务中的服务器 CPU 部分将在较高基数上实现超过 70% 的同比增长,并且受数据中心 AI 放量的推动,预计整个数据中心分部将实现超过 100% 的增长(即翻倍以上)。因此,我们确实看到进入 2027 年将出现非常显著的放量。我们对 OpenAI、Meta 和 Anthropic 这些战略基石客户感到非常满意,他们都正处于部署爬坡过程中。算力需求非常高,这需要将他们的数据中心建设进度、与云服务商(CSP)的配合以及我们的量产爬坡紧密对齐。
P04434:28
The way I would describe it is we have supply to more than meet the guidance that we've talked about, and the upside potential is there. The key thing is to work very closely with our customers as they're planning their build-outs overall. I think from a Helios ramp standpoint, we're expecting a very significant ramp over the next couple of quarters. We've said Q3 is the very beginning of the ramp, Q4 is a step up, and then Q1 will be a further step up, and we'll ramp as we go through 2027. Hopefully that gives you a little bit of color on how that data center AI will play out. In terms of the revenue per gigawatt, I think we've said double-digit billions. We're still in that range. I think that looks like that's pretty much where it will be.
我的描述是:我们准备的供应能力完全足以超过我们已经给出的指引,因此存在进一步的上行潜力。关键在于随着客户推进整体数据中心建设规划,与他们保持非常密切的配合。从 Helios 的爬坡节奏来看,我们预计未来几个季度将出现非常显著的放量:我们已经说过第三季度只是爬坡的最早期起点,第四季度会迈上一个台阶,明年第一季度再迈上一个新台阶,并在 2027 年全年持续放量。希望这能让你对数据中心 AI 的推进节奏有更清晰的了解。至于每吉瓦对应的营收,我们此前表示过是数百亿美元(double-digit billions,即上百亿至数百亿美元)。我们目前仍然保持在这一区间内,看起来实际情况基本就在这一水平。
被引用:↩ FY2026Q2 季度复盘 · 电话会要点 · 管理层情绪与问答焦点↩ FY2026Q2 电话会解析 · 问答解析 · Vivek Arya(Bank of America Securities):2027 年吉瓦级算力可见度与 Helios 大容量 HBM 成本敞口↩ FY2026Q2 电话会解析 · 回避与未回答↩ 推理时代算力分流:定制 ASIC 与开放架构能不能抢走通用 GPU 的份额? · 技术路线与客户分单账本 · 表一:三强算力架构、机柜互联路线与单吉瓦经济账矩阵↩ 推理时代算力分流:定制 ASIC 与开放架构能不能抢走通用 GPU 的份额? · 多方原话交锋与验真标尺 · 未来 2–4 个季度检验「算力分流」走向的四大标尺
P04535:25
The key here will be continuing to work with our partners as they ramp, because there's a demand for a lot more compute, and we would like to satisfy that demand.
这里的关键在于随着合作伙伴推进部署,继续与他们密切配合,因为市场对更多算力的需求十分旺盛,而我们希望满足这一需求。
P04635:36
Vivek AryaAnalyst, Bank of America Securities
Thank you, Lisa. For my follow-up, a little of a technical question. When we look at the specs of Helios, it has I think almost 50% more HBM than the competition, and I think you have always had more HBM in your product. How much of the benefit is because of having 50% more HBM? Doesn't that expose AMD more to memory cost inflation? I'm just curious, how are you ensuring that you're able to maintain margins and get this memory allocation? I think Jean already suggested you're comfortable with the gross margin range, but I'm curious how much of the benefit is just because of the use of more HBM, and does that still enable you to meet your profitability targets and allocation requirements over time? Thank you.
谢谢你,Lisa。我的追问是一个偏技术性的问题。看 Helios 的规格参数,它的 HBM 容量似乎比竞争对手高出近 50%,而且你们的产品历来配备更多的 HBM。请问性能优势中有多大比例来自于多出的这 50% HBM?这是否会让 AMD 面临更大的内存成本通胀敞口?我很想知道你们如何确保能够维持利润率并获得所需的内存配额?我知道刚才 Jean 已经表示你们对毛利率区间很有把握,但我很好奇其中有多少优势单纯来自使用更多 HBM,以及随着时间推移,这是否仍能让你们实现盈利目标和配额需求?谢谢。
P04736:25
Lisa SuChair and CEO
Yeah. Look, Vivek, we're working very closely with our memory partners across the board on both our GPU, HBM memory, as well as just the general memory for the systems across our data center business. What I would say is we've worked with our memory partners for multiple years to ensure that we have a strong ramp in our business. There is very good visibility into HBM allocation for what we expect to deliver in 2027. The other piece of it is, in terms of the memory bandwidth and the memory capacity, it is one of the advantages of the AMD solutions. When you think about the larger model sizes, they really benefit from the larger memory footprint, and that goes into the total cost of ownership.
好的,Vivek。我们正与内存合作伙伴在各个层面密切合作,既包括用于 GPU 的 HBM 内存,也包括我们数据中心业务各类系统所需的通用内存。我想说的是,我们已经与内存合作伙伴开展了多年的深度合作,以确保业务的强劲爬坡。对于我们预计在 2027 年交付的产品,我们在 HBM 配额方面拥有非常好的可见度。另一方面,就内存带宽和内存容量而言,这正是 AMD 解决方案的核心优势之一。当你考虑更大规模的模型时,它们确实受益于更大的内存容量,而这会直接转化为总体拥有成本(TCO)优势。
P04837:14
We do recognize in this memory environment, though, every customer is looking at how to optimize their memory footprint, and we have the opportunity, if desired, to also modify that memory footprint if the total cost of ownership is not as significant in certain workloads. Think about it as the benefit of the memory is workload-dependent, and we know a bunch of our customers are very happy with what that returns in terms of performance. There are some workloads, let's call it medium-sized models, that may not get as much of a benefit, and in that case, we would address the memory footprint as you might expect.
不过我们也认识到,在当前的内存市场环境下,每位客户都在研究如何优化其内存配置;如果在某些工作负载中大内存带来的总体拥有成本(TCO)优势没有那么显著,我们也可以根据客户需求调整内存配置方案。你可以这样理解:大内存带来的收益取决于具体工作负载,我们知道有许多客户对其带来的性能回报非常满意;但对于某些工作负载——比如中等规模的模型——可能不需要那么大的内存优势,在这种情况下,正如你所预期的那样,我们会相应调整内存配置。
P04937:59
Operator
Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Joshua Buchalter with TD Cowen. Please proceed with your question.
谢谢。下一个问题来自 TD Cowen 的 Joshua Buchalter。请提问。
P05038:06
Joshua BuchalterAnalyst, TD Cowen
Hey, guys. Thank you for taking my question and congrats on the very strong results. I wanted to also follow up on the server CPU assumptions for 2027. It sounds like the supply for that is locked up and you have the ability to service higher demand if it continues to track that way. I guess any help you can give us on sort of the unit and ASP assumptions that are baked in there, I think investors are struggling to model the CPU market overall. How should we think about, I guess, core count growth or whatever is the right proxy as we think about modeling this business? Thank you.
嗨,各位,感谢接受我的提问,祝贺取得非常强劲的业绩。我也想追问一下关于 2027 年服务器 CPU 的假设。听起来这部分的供应已经锁定,而且如果需求继续保持这一势头,你们还有能力满足更高的需求。能否为我们提供一些其中隐含的出货量(unit)和平均售价(ASP)假设?我认为投资者目前在为整个 CPU 市场建模时感到有些棘手。在为这项业务建模时,我们应该如何看待核心数量增长或其他合适的参考指标?谢谢。
P05138:39
Lisa SuChair and CEO
Yeah, sure, Josh. Let me maybe start with a little bit of grounding on the growth that we have seen so far. There is certainly both unit and ASP growth. If you just look at our Q2 performance, when we said we grew over 70% in both cloud and enterprise, we actually had double-digit growth in both units and ASPs, but it was actually more unit. The unit growth was higher. That is very much the nature of our business, and we're seeing just very strong demand from an overall market standpoint. On the ASP growth, we have ASP growth as we go to higher core counts, for certainly. As we go forward, you should expect both unit and ASP growth.
好的,Josh。让我先结合我们已经实现的增长情况来做个铺垫。增长中无疑同时包含出货量(unit)和平均售价(ASP)的提升。单看我们第二季度的表现,当我们说云和企业客户销售额均增长超过 70% 时,实际上我们的出货量和平均售价都实现了两位数百分比增长,但其中出货量的增长贡献更大——出货量增速更高。这正是我们业务的本质特征,我们从整体市场层面看到了非常强劲的需求。至于平均售价的增长,随着客户向更高核心数量的产品升级,平均售价自然会提升。展望未来,你可以预期出货量和平均售价都会继续增长。
P05239:24
What we have been working on very diligently over the past couple of quarters is, as soon as we saw the significant inflection point in server demand, we've been working across our supply chain. That's wafers, that's back-end capacity, that's substrates, that's all of the components to raise the overall capacity for servers. We're seeing that play out through this year. That's one of the reasons we can raise the second half guidance, and we're seeing much more capacity coming in line in 2027 that supports the growth that we've been talking about. You should think about both units and ASP in this framework.
在过去几个季度里,一旦我们看到服务器需求出现显著拐点,我们就一直在整个供应链上全力以赴地开展工作——涵盖晶圆、后端产能、基板以及所有组件,以全面提升服务器的整体产能。我们看到这些努力正在今年逐步兑现,这也是我们能够上调下半年指引的原因之一;同时我们看到 2027 年将有更多产能到位,足以支撑我们刚才谈到的增长目标。因此在这个框架下,你应该同时考虑出货量和平均售价的共同驱动。
P05340:03
Joshua BuchalterAnalyst, TD Cowen
Thank you for all the color there. Lisa, in your prepared remarks, you mentioned that Helios was ahead of your original forecast. Can we unpack that comment a little bit? Was that a comment on volumes? Was it yields? If it's yields, how should we think about the first quarter or two of Helios gross margins compared to as it gets later into its ramp? Should we expect gross margins to improve as it ramps? Thank you.
非常感谢你的详细解答。Lisa,在管理层陈述中,你提到 Helios 的进展超出了你们最初的预测。能否帮我们拆解一下这句话的含义?这是指销量(volumes)还是良率(yields)?如果是指良率,相比爬坡后期的水平,我们应该如何看待 Helios 量产头一两个季度的毛利率?随着它爬坡放量,我们是否应该预期毛利率会逐步改善?谢谢。
P05440:29
Lisa SuChair and CEO
Yes. Josh, when I was talking about Helios was ahead of our initial forecast, it was as it relates to the overall volumes. Let's call it the amount of demand there is for Helios in 2027. It's like an outstanding product. What we're seeing from every one of our customers who's had a chance to not only spend time with Helios, but also spend time in our overall ecosystem, there's a high confidence that Helios will be a great addition to the AI portfolio, particularly around inference. That was my comment about higher than our initial expectations. As it relates to your comments about yields and performance and what do we expect as we go through the ramp, one would expect that the overall yields will improve as we go through the next few quarters.
好的,Josh。当我谈到 Helios 超出我们最初的预测时,指的是整体销量需求——也就是 2027 年市场对 Helios 的需求体量。它是一款极其出色的产品。从每一位不仅实际体验了 Helios、还深入体验了我们整体生态系统的客户反馈来看,大家都高度确信 Helios 将成为其 AI 产品组合中的重要补充,特别是在推理领域。这就是我所说的超出最初预期的含义。至于你提到的良率、性能以及量产爬坡过程中的预期,随着未来几个季度量产的推进,整体良率自然会逐步提升。
P05541:21
The starting quarter is this quarter here in Q3, we will be ramping over the next couple of quarters. We always would expect that the yields will continue to improve as we go through the first few quarters, especially on a product like this, which is highly complex.
起步季度就是当前的第三季度,我们将在接下来的几个季度中持续爬坡放量。特别是在像这样高度复杂的产品上,随着前几个季度量产的推进,我们一贯预期良率会持续改善。
P05641:39
Operator
Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Aaron Rakers with Wells Fargo. Please proceed with your question.
谢谢。下一个问题来自 Wells Fargo 的 Aaron Rakers。请提问。
P05741:46
Aaron RakersAnalyst, Wells Fargo
Yeah. Thanks for taking the question. As you can imagine, I'll stick with the server piece of the business as well. At your recent event, you highlighted the server market, the new $220 billion TAM that you're throwing out there as kind of in three buckets, right? General purpose, I think you called it or defined it as sandbox servers, and then kind of the AI front-end node. As we think about the growth that you're talking about, I'm wondering if you could help us conceptualize the sizing of those buckets at all, and how big is that kind of middle category, that sandbox AI market, as we think about growing 80%+ this back half of the year and 70%+. How big of that opportunity do you see that becoming?
好的,感谢接受提问。如你所料,我还是想继续聚焦服务器业务板块。在你们近期的活动上,你们将新提出的 2,200 亿美元服务器潜在市场规模(TAM)划分为三个板块,对吧?即通用计算、你们称之为沙盒服务器(sandbox servers)的智能体板块,以及 AI 前端头节点。结合你们谈到的增长——下半年增长 80% 以上、明年增长 70% 以上,我想知道你能否帮我们从概念上估算一下这三个板块各自的体量,尤其是中间那个沙盒 AI 市场有多大?你认为那个机会最终会发展到多大?
P05842:31
Lisa SuChair and CEO
Aaron, what I would say is, maybe let me start from the endpoint. When you think about the $220 billion TAM in 2030, we actually see this agentic AI or these agentic sandboxes being the largest piece of the TAM. It's the fastest-growing piece. It's also the smallest piece today. In the near term, I would say that there is certainly growth in that area. As we go out over the next three, four, five years, we think that's the largest growth in the server market. I think the thing that is very strong about our portfolio is we believe we can grow in every one of those segments. When you think about the types of CPUs you need for each of these workloads, you need different optimization points. That's one of the things that we've really tried to point out.
Aaron,让我先从终局时点说起。当你展望 2030 年 2,200 亿美元的潜在市场规模(TAM)时,我们实际上认为智能体 AI(或这些智能体沙盒服务器)将成为 TAM 中最大的一块。它是增长最快的部分,而今天它也是体量最小的部分。在近期,这一领域无疑已经开始增长;而当我们展望未来三、四、五年时,我们认为它将成为服务器市场中最大的增长来源。我认为我们产品组合非常强大的一点在于,我们相信自己能够在每一个细分板块中都实现增长。当你考虑每一类工作负载所需的 CPU 类型时,它们需要不同的优化点,这也是我们一直努力强调的重点之一。
被引用:↩ FY2026Q2 季度复盘 · 电话会要点 · 分部与业务动态↩ FY2026Q2 季度复盘 · 管理层口径变化↩ FY2026Q2 季度复盘 · 对投资逻辑的影响↩ FY2026Q2 老唐风格精评 · 二、扒一扒三大印钞机:服务器 CPU 抢地盘,AI 机柜抱紧顶级金主 · 1. 数据中心分部(`DATA_CENTER`):当之无愧的顶梁柱↩ FY2026Q2 电话会解析 · 问答解析 · Aaron Rakers(Wells Fargo):2,200 亿美元服务器 CPU TAM 三大场景拆分与客户端 2027 年展望↩ 推理时代算力分流:定制 ASIC 与开放架构能不能抢走通用 GPU 的份额? · 核心争议拆解 · 争议四:智能体(Agentic AI)改写算力配比——为什么每个智能体背后的 CPU 沙盒成了新胜负手? ×2
P05943:18
It's not just one CPU, it's actually a real family of CPUs that you need. From our standpoint, Venice is absolutely leadership in all of the categories. Whether you're talking about per-core performance or you're talking about overall socket performance, that gives us a very strong position across general purpose agentic AI, and also the head nodes for the AI accelerator business. From our standpoint, when we look at our customer traction and our customer momentum going from Turin into Venice, Turin was already extremely widely used, especially amongst the hyperscalers. What we're seeing is when we go into Venice, the workloads actually expand. There are more workloads that are going to be run on the next generation of EPYC than are run on the previous generation.
你需要的不仅仅是一款 CPU,而是一个真正的 CPU 产品家族。从我们的角度来看,Venice 在所有类别中都处于绝对领先地位——无论是单核性能还是整体单插槽性能,这使我们在通用计算、智能体 AI 以及 AI 加速器业务的头节点领域都占据了非常有利的地位。当我们观察客户从 Turin 转向 Venice 的牵引力和势头时,Turin 本身在超大规模云厂商中就已经得到了极其广泛的应用;而进入 Venice 世代后,我们看到工作负载范围实际上进一步扩大了——在下一代 EPYC 上运行的工作负载数量将超过上一代。
P06044:08
That's what gives us the confidence to say that we can grow substantially ahead of the market, given the product positioning.
正是这样的产品定位,让我们有信心表示能够实现远高于市场的增长。
P06144:17
Aaron RakersAnalyst, Wells Fargo
Yep. Thank you. That was very helpful. As a quick follow-up, I know it's probably lower on the radar for a lot of people, but I think in the past you've talked about the client business, even with some pressures in the PC market growing, this year for you guys on a year-over-year basis. Do you still see that and are you willing to give any thoughts on what you might think of 2027 on the client CPU side?
好的,非常感谢,这很有帮助。快速追问一下,我知道目前大家对客户端业务的关注度可能相对低一些,但过去你们曾表示,即便 PC 市场面临一些压力,今年你们的客户端业务仍将实现同比增长。你们现在依然维持这一判断吗?另外是否愿意谈谈对 2027 年客户端 CPU 业务的初步看法?
P06244:41
Lisa SuChair and CEO
Yeah. Well, let me say, Aaron, first of all, the client CPU business, we have continued to think it's a very important business. I particularly think that local AI will continue to become a larger piece of how people experience AI. I think AI PCs will become more important. As it relates to our client business in 2026, I think our first half performance has been very strong, and although we are expecting that the market will decline in the second half, the market's actually held up better than most people would have thought. Our view is, we see the growth in 2026 on a year-over-year basis, certainly there.
好的,Aaron。首先我想说,我们一直认为客户端 CPU 业务是非常重要的业务。我尤其认为,本地 AI 将继续成为人们体验 AI 的越来越重要的方式,因此 AI PC 将变得愈发重要。就我们 2026 年的客户端业务而言,我认为上半年的表现非常强劲;尽管我们预计下半年整体 PC 市场会有所下滑,但迄今为止市场的实际韧性比大多数人预想的都要好。我们的看法是,2026 年全年实现同比增长是明确无疑的。
P06345:22
As we go into 2027, I think we have a strong product portfolio that is coming on board to address not just the traditional notebook and desktop markets, but also as you think about a more AI-centric PC experience, like what we have been talking about with the Ryzen AI Halo. I remain optimistic about the PC market as an important way for us to reach a broader set of users and our ability to grow ahead of the market. The market itself will depend a bit on some of the components. We're all watching the component costs and how that will play out over the next couple of quarters. I think our portfolio and our rising content in enterprise are very positive for our client mix.
进入 2027 年,我认为我们将有一套强大的新品组合陆续上市,不仅面向传统的笔记本电脑和台式机市场,还面向更具 AI 核心体验的 PC 市场——就像我们一直在谈论的 Ryzen AI Halo 那样。我依然看好 PC 市场作为我们触达更广泛用户群的重要途径,并对我们跑赢市场的能力保持乐观。至于市场大盘本身,将在一定程度上取决于部分组件的供应与价格,大家都在关注未来几个季度组件成本的演变。但我认为我们的产品组合以及在企业客户市场不断提升的单机价值量,对我们的客户端产品组合都非常有利。
P06446:14
Operator
The next question comes from the line of Stacy Rasgon with Bernstein Research. Please proceed with your question.
下一个问题来自 Bernstein Research 的 Stacy Rasgon。请提问。
P06546:21
Stacy RasgonAnalyst, Bernstein Research
Hi, guys. Thanks for taking my question. First thing, I wanted to pick on something in some press release. It says that data center accelerates in the second half. It grew 107% year-over-year in Q2. You're guiding it up like in the 80s, though, like in Q3. How do I interpret, which is not an acceleration, how do I interpret that statement? Is the second half collectively higher than the 107% that you see in Q2? How should I be interpreting what you guys wrote in the press release around data center accelerating what's happened now?
嗨,各位,感谢接受我的提问。首先,我想抠一下新闻稿里的一句话。新闻稿里说数据中心业务将在下半年加速增长。但数据中心在第二季度同比增长了 107%,而你们对第三季度的指引隐含同比增速大约在 80% 多(in the 80s),这并不是加速。我该如何理解这句话?是指整个下半年的合计同比增速会高于第二季度的 107% 吗?对于你们在新闻稿里写的“数据中心将在下半年加速增长”,我到底应该怎么理解?
P06646:55
Jean HuEVP, CFO, and Treasurer
Hi, Stacy, this is Jean. Good question. I think when we talk about acceleration, we're talking about the second half versus the first half. If you look at the first half, our data center business year-over-year growth versus the second half, we do think there's acceleration. That's the reflection there.
嗨,Stacy,我是 Jean。很好的问题。当我们谈到加速时,我们对比的是下半年与上半年。如果你看数据中心业务上半年的同比增长率,再对比下半年的同比增长率,我们确实认为会出现加速。这句话反映的就是这一对比。
P06747:18
Stacy RasgonAnalyst, Bernstein Research
Thank you for that. I think for my follow-up, I want to dig in a little more into the data center targets for next year. You said servers more than 70%, the total more than doubling. I guess what I'm asking is, how much work is the more in that statement doing? You seem to be on a trajectory that would take you well above those numbers. I guess, just how should I be interpreting the more in the statement? Understanding that we're only in August of 2026. I get it.
谢谢解答。我的追问想更深入地探讨一下明年的数据中心目标。你们表示服务器增长“超过 70%”,数据中心整体“翻倍以上(more than doubling)”。我想问的是,这句话里的“以上(more)”到底有多大分量?从你们目前的发展轨迹来看,最终结果似乎会远高于这些数字。我完全理解现在才 2026 年 8 月,但我到底应该如何理解这句话里的“以上”?你们心里是怎么考量的?
P06847:49
Lisa SuChair and CEO
Yeah
好的。
P06947:49
Stacy RasgonAnalyst, Bernstein Research
What's on your mind there?
你们心里是怎么想的?
P07047:52
Lisa SuChair and CEO
Stacy, you bring a smile to my face. I would say, we're trying to give you a way to think about 2027. Yes, the server CPU we're saying is more than 70%, which we think at this point is a very strong statement, just given where the business is. We do expect the overall data center business to be well over 100%. The well over 100% comes because the data center AI business is going to be well over 100%, just given the strength of our strategic customers, the ramp of Helios and all of the things that we've talked about. Hopefully that answers your more question.
Stacy,你这个问题让我不禁一笑。我想说的是,我们正努力为大家提供一个思考 2027 年的框架。是的,我们说服务器 CPU 增长超过 70%,考虑到该业务目前的体量,我们认为在当前时点这是一个非常强劲的表态。至于整体数据中心业务,我们确实预计其增长将远超 100%(well over 100%)。之所以能远超 100%,是因为鉴于我们战略客户的强劲需求、Helios 的量产爬坡以及我们谈到的所有积极因素,数据中心 AI 业务的增速将远超 100%。希望这回答了你关于“以上(more)”的问题。
P07148:40
Operator
Thank you. The next question comes from the line of James Schneider with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question.
谢谢。下一个问题来自 Goldman Sachs 的 James Schneider。请提问。
P07248:48
James SchneiderAnalyst, Goldman Sachs
Good afternoon. Thanks for taking my question. As you think about the early days of your MI400 series ramp and over the next few quarters, can you maybe talk about the customer diversity you expect in the early stages? I think you've noted four or five large customers that you've announced publicly. Can you maybe talk about how many of those customers will be contributing, let's say, in Q4, and how many in the first half of 2027?
下午好,感谢接受我的提问。展望未来几个季度 MI400 系列量产爬坡的早期阶段,能否谈谈你们预计在早期阶段会有怎样的客户多样性?你们已经公开宣布了四到五家大型客户,能否谈谈其中有多少家客户会在比如第四季度贡献收入,又有多少家会在 2027 年上半年贡献收入?
P07349:15
Lisa SuChair and CEO
Let's see. Jim, I guess the way to say it is, we've talked about sort of the large frontier model companies, OpenAI, Anthropic, Meta. They will be consuming through a number of CSPs, both hyperscalers and others. The diversity of the business. There are additional customers. There are lots of customers who are interested in Helios at, let's call it, a more regular scale than gigawatt scale. I think we'll have a good diversity of customers as we go through the next couple of quarters. What we're really doing is matching to when the larger data center build-outs are ready. We are working with each of our customers on their data center plans and ensuring that we are meeting their data center plans. Yeah, I think there's a good diversity, especially as we get into the Q4, Q1 timeframe.
Jim,可以这样说:我们已经谈到了几家大型前沿模型公司——OpenAI、Anthropic、Meta。他们将通过多家云服务商(CSP,既包括超大规模云厂商也包括其他云厂商)来消纳使用这些算力。至于业务的客户多样性,除此之外还有更多客户——有许多客户对常规规模(而非吉瓦级规模)的 Helios 部署表现出浓厚兴趣。因此我认为在接下来的几个季度里,我们将拥有良好的客户多样性。我们目前真正做的是与大型数据中心建设的就绪时间相匹配。我们正与每一位客户就其数据中心建设计划密切配合,确保满足他们的数据中心部署进度。所以,我认为特别是在进入第四季度和明年第一季度的时间窗口时,客户多样性会非常好。
P07450:12
James SchneiderAnalyst, Goldman Sachs
Thanks. Maybe as a follow-up, you mentioned data center readiness, I wanted to sort of test how you're seeing your various customers and their ability to accept your products into their data centers, whether that's land, power, shell, or anything else. Any constraints that you see heading into the first half of 2027 or even the back half of 2027 that would give you pause about hitting your targets? Thank you.
谢谢。追问一下,你刚才提到了数据中心就绪情况(readiness),我想进一步了解一下:你们如何评估不同客户在各自数据中心里接收和部署你们产品的能力——无论是土地、电力、机房外壳(shell)还是其他条件?展望 2027 年上半年乃至 2027 年下半年,是否存在任何制约因素会让你们对实现目标产生顾虑?谢谢。
P07550:39
Lisa SuChair and CEO
Well, Jim, I don't think we see anything that would give us pause about hitting the targets. I mean, we feel very good about the targets. Now, when you ask me what the range could be, there is a range, and the range will depend on the ability to bring on more capacity in a timely fashion. The way I view it is we're building sort of the entire supply chain, ensuring that we have our silicon, CPU, GPU, networking components that go into it, all of the Helios components. I think we feel very, very good about that part of the supply chain. We are working very closely on the data center operators and ensuring that we have good visibility into what's going on there.
Jim,我认为没有任何因素会让我们对实现既定目标产生顾虑,我们对这些目标非常有信心。当然,如果你问我最终结果的区间跨度有多大,确实存在一定区间,而这取决于能否及时推动更多数据中心产能上线。我的看法是,我们正在构建完整的供应链,确保芯片、CPU、GPU、网络组件以及所有 Helios 组件供应到位——我们对供应链的这一部分感到非常踏实。同时,我们正与数据中心运营商密切合作,确保对现场进展拥有良好的可见度。
P07651:20
That gives us, let's call it, strong confidence in what we've guided for the data center AI business so far. We're going to be continuing to look at how to accelerate some of those builds. I think there's a clear desire on the part of everyone in the ecosystem to bring on more AI compute faster. We are seeing every day more opportunities with operators to accelerate some of that capacity, and that's much of the work that we're doing together with our customers and partners.
这让我们对目前已给出的数据中心 AI 业务指引抱有很强的信心。接下来我们还将继续探索如何加快其中一部分数据中心的建设进度。我认为整个生态系统中的每一方都有着明确的意愿,希望更快地让更多 AI 算力上线。我们每天都能看到与运营商合作加快部分产能落地的机会,这也是我们正与客户及合作伙伴共同推进的核心工作。
P07751:58
Operator
Thank you. The next question comes from the line of C.J. Muse with Cantor. Please proceed with your question.
谢谢。下一个问题来自 Cantor 的 C.J. Muse。请提问。
P07852:05
C.J. MuseAnalyst, Cantor
Yeah, good afternoon. Thank you for taking the question. If I take your data center guide, Lisa, it sort of implies Instinct revenues of $30 billion, give or take. Curious, two parts on this. How do you see kind of the revenue cadence first half, second half? If we isolate to Instinct only and start thinking about MI455X and Helios, how should we think about the underlying gross margins for that business starting in Q1 and then exiting in Q4?
下午好,感谢接受提问。Lisa,如果按你们给出的数据中心指引测算,似乎隐含 Instinct 的营收大约在 300 亿美元左右。对此我有两个问题:第一,你如何看待明年上半年与下半年的营收节奏?第二,如果单独剥离出 Instinct 业务,考虑 MI455X 和 Helios,我们应该如何看待该业务在明年第一季度起步时以及第四季度末退出时的底层毛利率走势?
P07952:35
Jean HuEVP, CFO, and Treasurer
I think, CJ, you're saying $30 billion. Are you talking about the server or which one are you talking? You're talking about 2027, right?
CJ,你刚才说的 300 亿美元,你是指服务器还是哪一块?你指的是 2027 年,对吧?
P08052:45
C.J. MuseAnalyst, Cantor
2027 Instinct, yeah.
对,2027 年的 Instinct 营收。
P08152:49
Jean HuEVP, CFO, and Treasurer
Yeah. 2027-
好的,2027 年——
P08252:51
Lisa SuChair and CEO
Maybe let me help you. C.J., I think what you're hearing from us is that your data center AI number is probably too low. Maybe back to Stacy's question, without going into exact numbers, I think this notion of over 100% should consider be well over 100%. Look, as we look at this, it's a progression over the next couple of quarters. As we go through the next couple of quarters, we expect to continue growing Helios quarter by quarter. Yes, that's the best way of thinking about it. I'm sure Jean can work on if you have further questions on that. Jean, does that?
让我来帮你解答吧,C.J.。我想你从我们这里听到的意思是,你算出来的那个数据中心 AI 数字可能偏低了。回到刚才 Stacy 的问题,虽然我们不打算给出精确的数字,但我们所说的“超过 100%”应该被理解为“远超 100%(well over 100%)”。至于节奏,这是一个在未来几个季度逐步推进的过程,我们预计 Helios 将在未来几个季度中逐季持续增长。是的,这是理解它的最佳方式。如果你还有进一步的问题,Jean 可以补充。Jean,你觉得呢?
被引用:↩ FY2026Q2 季度复盘 · 电话会要点 · 管理层情绪与问答焦点↩ FY2026Q2 季度复盘 · 管理层口径变化↩ FY2026Q2 老唐风格精评 · 二、扒一扒三大印钞机:服务器 CPU 抢地盘,AI 机柜抱紧顶级金主 · 1. 数据中心分部(`DATA_CENTER`):当之无愧的顶梁柱↩ FY2026Q2 电话会解析 · 核心判断↩ FY2026Q2 电话会解析 · 管理层发言解析 · Lisa Su|Chair and CEO↩ FY2026Q2 电话会解析 · 问答解析 · C.J. Muse(Cantor):2027 年 Instinct 营收 300 亿美元测算检验与 Instinct 毛利率走势↩ FY2026Q2 电话会解析 · 对投资判断的含义↩ 指引与语气 · 核心结论↩ 指引与语气 · 指引演变 · 数据中心 AI 与长期财务模型(`datacenter_ai_and_segment_outlook` & `long_term_financial_model`)↩ 指引与语气 · 语气变化
P08353:33
Jean HuEVP, CFO, and Treasurer
Yeah.
是的。
P08453:36
C.J. MuseAnalyst, Cantor
On the gross margin side, if we isolate to Instinct, how should we think about beginning 2027 and then exiting?
在毛利率方面,如果单独看 Instinct,我们应该如何看待 2027 年年初和年末的水平?
P08553:46
Jean HuEVP, CFO, and Treasurer
Yeah, I think overall, when we think about gross margin for 2027, as I said earlier, it's really determined by both the pace of server CPU business ramp and the data center AI ramp. I actually think overall, quarter over quarter, it could be different mix, it could change differently. Overall, when we think about this, we are actually very optimistic about how we manage the ramp of the MI450. At the same time, with the server business continue to improve and grow significantly in 2027. Overall, I think they have a good offset In general, overall. I do think it's important to remember we have multiple other levers from the company perspective, not only embedded businesses but also client business will continue to improve gross margin. Operation team continue to do a great job.
好的,正如我刚才所说,当我们整体考虑 2027 年的毛利率时,它确实取决于服务器 CPU 业务的放量节奏和数据中心 AI 的放量节奏。实际上我认为在季度环比之间,产品组合可能会有所不同,变化也会有所差异。但总体而言,我们对管理好 MI450 的量产爬坡感到非常乐观,与此同时,服务器业务在 2027 年将继续改善并实现显著增长,因此总体上它们能够形成良好的相互抵消。此外,请大家记住,从公司整体层面来看,我们还有多个其他杠杆:不仅嵌入式业务,而且客户端业务也将继续提升毛利率,运营团队也持续表现出色。
P08654:56
We'll give you more color when we get there to guide the 2027.
等到了正式指引 2027 年的时候,我们会向大家提供更多细节。
P08755:04
Operator
Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Joseph Moore with Morgan Stanley. Please proceed with your question.
谢谢。下一个问题来自 Morgan Stanley 的 Joseph Moore。请提问。
P08855:12
Joseph MooreAnalyst, Morgan Stanley
Great. Thank you. In the server CPU business, are you supply constrained now? It seems like the market's very tight, do you anticipate that tightness persisting? When you sort of think about next year, just the general ability of the supply chain to support the level of growth that you are talking about specifically in CPU.
太好了,谢谢。在服务器 CPU 业务上,你们目前是否处于供给受限状态?看起来市场非常紧俏,你们预计这种紧俏状况会持续下去吗?另外,展望明年,供应链整体是否有能力支撑你们刚才谈到的、特别是 CPU 方面的如此高的增长水平?
P08955:31
Lisa SuChair and CEO
Sure, Joe. I would say the server CPU supply chain is tight right now, it has been tight for the first half of the year because much of this demand was unforecasted. As we get into 2027, the demand is better forecasted, we would expect that the 2027 server supply situation should be better than 2026. We feel very good about being able to satisfy what we just talked about, which was over 70% year-over-year growth. I believe, depending on how things play out, there may be opportunities for that growth to go higher as we get through the next few quarters.
好的,Joe。应该说目前服务器 CPU 供应链确实处于紧平衡状态,而且今年上半年一直很紧,因为其中很大一部分需求此前并未包含在最初的预测中(unforecasted)。当我们进入 2027 年时,需求预测已经清晰得多,因此我们预计 2027 年的服务器供应状况应该会比 2026 年更好。我们对能够满足刚才谈到的超过 70% 的同比增长感到非常有把握。而且我认为,随着未来几个季度形势的推进,这一增速甚至可能还有进一步上行的空间。
P09056:11
Joseph MooreAnalyst, Morgan Stanley
Okay. Thank you for that. You guys are ramping a lot on two nanometer and there has been a lot of focus on three nanometer being in short supply. Is that helping or is it still challenging to bring up new capacity on the new node that way?
好的,谢谢解答。你们目前在 2 纳米制程上进行了大量产能爬坡,而外界此前非常关注 3 纳米供应短缺的问题。转向 2 纳米对此是有帮助的,还是说在新制程节点上拉起新产能依然充满挑战?
P09156:25
Lisa SuChair and CEO
I think, Joe, it's always challenging to bring up new capacity on new node. I think what makes our approach, a little bit special and different is that because we're using the chiplet technology, we actually ramp in fewer wafers in the new node. That gives us the opportunity to again, we're working very hard on ensuring that we get the supply necessary to meet the very strong customer demand. From my perspective, I think all of that is work that's being done. We're certainly looking at the overall supply chain, not just wafers. That includes back-end capacity, packaging capacity, substrates, all of those things. We feel good about where we are to satisfy both the strong ramp in servers as well as the strong ramp in the data center AI business.
Joe,我认为在新制程节点上拉起新产能从来都是具有挑战性的。但我们的做法之所以有些独特和不同,是因为我们采用了芯粒(chiplet)技术,因此在新制程节点上实际需要爬坡的晶圆数量更少。这为我们提供了有利条件,同时我们也正全力以赴确保获得满足强劲客户需求所需的供应。从我的角度来看,所有这些工作都在扎实推进中。我们审视的当然是整个供应链,而不仅仅是晶圆——还包括后端产能、封装产能、基板等所有环节。我们对目前的准备情况感到满意,足以同时支撑服务器和数据中心 AI 业务的强劲爬坡。
P09257:13
Matt RamsayVP of Financial Strategy and Investor Relations
Hey, John, I think we have time for one more caller before we close out the call, please. Thank you.
嘿,John,在结束电话会之前,我想我们还有时间接听最后一位提问者的电话。谢谢。
P09357:19
Operator
Thank you. Our final question comes from the line of Atif Malik with Citi. Please proceed with your question.
谢谢。我们的最后一个问题来自 Citi 的 Atif Malik。请提问。
P09457:27
Atif MalikAnalyst, Citi
Hi. Thank you for taking my questions. Lisa, you guys announced a partnership with Cerebras at your Advancing AI Day on disaggregate compute. Can you talk about, just qualitatively, how do you expect the sales to grow in the fast inference market this year into next year?
嗨,感谢接受我的提问。Lisa,你们在 Advancing AI 大会上宣布了与 Cerebras 在分离式计算(disaggregated compute)方面的合作伙伴关系。能否定性地谈谈,你预计今年到明年快速推理(fast inference)市场的销售额将如何增长?
P09557:47
Lisa SuChair and CEO
Yeah, absolutely. I think the inference market overall is growing very substantially over this year into next year. The fast inference, in particular, is an area which is, let's call it, starting to become more and more relevant. With our partnership with Cerebras Systems, I think they have great technology together with Helios plus their Wafer Scale Engine, we get a very good solution for customers, and we would expect that solution to start becoming available in Q4 in the Cerebras Cloud and extend into 2027. From our view, this is an important part of the market, and we continue to look at ways to, I would say, customize and optimize our technologies for the various workloads out there. We view this as just more of what we do in an open ecosystem.
好的,完全没问题。我认为整体推理市场从今年到明年都在大幅增长。特别是快速推理领域,正变得越来越重要。通过与 Cerebras Systems 的合作——他们拥有非常出色的技术,将 Helios 与他们的晶圆级引擎(Wafer Scale Engine)结合在一起,我们为客户提供了一套非常优秀的解决方案;我们预计该解决方案将于第四季度开始在 Cerebras Cloud 上线,并延续扩展至 2027 年。在我们看来,这是市场的重要组成部分,我们将继续探索各种方式,针对市面上不同的工作负载来定制和优化我们的技术。我们将此视为在开放生态系统中所做工作的又一延伸。
P09658:47
Atif MalikAnalyst, Citi
Great. One for Jean. How should we think about OpEx growth relative to that overall 40% market growth that you talked about in the next few years?
太好了。还有一个问题问 Jean:相对于你们刚才谈到的未来几年整体市场 40% 的增长率,我们应该如何看待营业费用(OpEx)的增长?
P09758:57
Jean HuEVP, CFO, and Treasurer
Yeah. I think Lisa talked about the TAM growth at 40% and will be growing faster than TAM. From OpEx perspective, we'll continue to invest given the large opportunities we have ahead of us. You should expect us to manage this OpEx increase less than the top-line revenue growth. That's what our business model is designed for, so we can drive in more operating leverage to deliver EPS. That is also consistent with Lisa said our EPS will be significantly higher than $20 we outlined at our Financial Analyst Day.
好的。刚才 Lisa 谈到潜在市场规模(TAM)将以 40% 的速度增长,而我们的增速将快于 TAM。从营业费用(OpEx)的角度来看,鉴于前方巨大的市场机遇,我们将继续进行投入;但你可以预期,我们会把营业费用的增速控制在低于顶线营收增速的水平。这正是我们商业模式的设计初衷,以便我们能够释放更多的经营杠杆来兑现每股收益(EPS)。这也与 Lisa 所说的——我们的 EPS 将显著高于此前在财务分析师日上提出的 20 美元目标——完全一致。
被引用:↩ 基本面档案 · 管理层与资本配置↩ FY2026Q2 季度复盘 · 叙事 vs 报表 · 管理层叙事与报表检验↩ 估值 · 两阶段 DCF↩ 估值 · PEG↩ FY2026Q2 老唐风格精评 · 五、老唐毛估估:按计算器称一称,8400 亿市值贵不贵? ×2↩ FY2026Q2 电话会解析 · 管理层发言解析 · Jean Hu|EVP, CFO, and Treasurer↩ FY2026Q2 电话会解析 · 问答解析 · Atif Malik(Citi):与 Cerebras 合作切入快速推理市场及未来营业费用经营杠杆↩ 指引与语气 · 指引演变 · 下季营业费用与经营杠杆纪律(`opex_next_quarter`)↩ 指引与语气 · 语气变化
P09859:41
Matt RamsayVP of Financial Strategy and Investor Relations
Thank you very much for all the analysts and investors that joined our call today. John, you can go ahead and wrap up the call. Thank you.
非常感谢今天参加我们电话会的所有分析师和投资者。John,现在可以结束电话会了。谢谢。
P09959:49
Operator
Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. That does conclude the question and answer session, and that also concludes today's teleconference. We thank you for your participation. You may disconnect your lines at this time.
谢谢各位。女士们、先生们,问答环节到此结束,今天的电话会议也到此结束。感谢各位的参与,现在可以挂断电话了。