FY2027Q1 电话会逐字稿
发言人
点击某位发言人,只突出显示其发言;再次点击恢复| 姓名 | 职位 | 机构 | 段落 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie Wu(经同传) | CEO | Alibaba Group | 31 |
| Eddie Wu | CEO | Alibaba Group | 27 |
| Jiang Fan(经同传) | CEO of Alibaba E-commerce Business Group | Alibaba Group | 9 |
| Toby Xu | CFO | Alibaba Group | 8 |
| Jiang Fan | CEO of Alibaba E-commerce Business Group | Alibaba Group | 8 |
| Operator | 7 | ||
| Lydia Liu | Head of Investor Relations | Alibaba Group | 7 |
| Interpreter | Interpreter | 0 | |
| Yang Bai | Analyst | CICC | 3 |
| Alex Yao | Analyst | JPMorgan | 3 |
| Yuan Liao | Analyst | CITIC Securities | 2 |
| Alicia Yap | Analyst | Citigroup | 1 |
| Charlene Liu | Analyst | HSBC | 1 |
● 公司管理层 / 主持人 ● 外部分析师
P00100:00
Operator
Good day, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for standing by. Welcome to Alibaba Group's June quarter 2026 results conference call. At this time, all participants are on listen-only mode. After management's prepared remarks, there will be a Q&A session. I would now like to turn the call over to Lydia Liu, Head of Investor Relations of Alibaba Group. Please go ahead.
女士们、先生们,大家好。感谢各位耐心等候。欢迎参加阿里巴巴集团 2026 年 6 月季度业绩电话会。目前所有参会者均处于只听模式。管理层陈述结束后将进入问答环节。现在我把会议交给阿里巴巴集团投资者关系负责人 Lydia Liu。请开始。
P00200:24
Lydia LiuHead of Investor Relations
Thank you. Good day, everyone, and welcome to Alibaba Group's June quarter 2026 earnings conference call. Joining the call today are Joe Tsai, Chairman, Eddie Wu, Chief Executive Officer, Toby Xu, Chief Financial Officer, Jiang Fan, Chief Executive Officer of Alibaba E-commerce Business Group. Before we get started, I would like to remind you that today's discussion may contain forward-looking statements based on management's current expectations that are subject to risks and uncertainties. We also make reference to non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations between GAAP and non-GAAP measures are included in today's earnings press release and investor presentation. Our comments will be on year-over-year comparisons unless we state otherwise. A replay of the call will be available on our website later today. With that, I would like to turn the call over to Eddie.
谢谢。大家好,欢迎参加阿里巴巴集团 2026 年 6 月季度业绩电话会。今天参加电话会的有:董事会主席 Joe Tsai(蔡崇信)、首席执行官 Eddie Wu(吴泳铭)、首席财务官 Toby Xu(徐宏)、阿里巴巴电商事业群首席执行官 Jiang Fan(蒋凡)。开始之前提醒各位,今天的讨论可能包含基于管理层当前预期的前瞻性陈述,存在风险和不确定性。我们也会提及非公认会计准则财务指标,公认会计准则与非公认会计准则指标之间的调节已载于今天的业绩新闻稿和投资者演示材料中。除另有说明外,我们的评论均为同比比较。电话会回放将于今天稍后在我们的网站上提供。下面我把时间交给 Eddie。
P00301:27
Eddie WuCEO
Good evening, good morning, and welcome to Alibaba Group's earnings call for the first quarter of fiscal year 2027. Over the past quarter, Alibaba's strategic AI investments have translated into robust results, with a total group revenue growing 9% year over year. AI commercialization has also accelerated across the board. Alibaba Cloud's external revenue grew 45%, and EBITDA increased 133% year over year, continuing to deliver on our commitment to accelerate growth. Revenue from AI-related products has maintained triple-digit growth for the 12th consecutive quarter, with annual revenue run rate surpassing CNY 49.5 billion, around $7.3 billion. It is the core engine of Alibaba Cloud's growth acceleration. I will now walk you through four key areas: AI and cloud commercialization, full-stack AI capabilities, AI application ecosystem, and consumption business. First, AI and cloud commercialization accelerated across the board and is expected to sustain high growth going forward.
晚上好、早上好,欢迎参加阿里巴巴集团 2027 财年第一季度业绩电话会。过去一个季度,阿里巴巴在 AI 上的战略投入转化为强劲的业绩,集团总收入同比增长 9%。AI 商业化也全面提速。阿里云外部收入增长 45%,EBITDA(注:按业绩公告,分部利润口径为经调整 EBITA)同比增长 133%,持续兑现我们加速增长的承诺。AI 相关产品收入连续第 12 个季度保持三位数增长,年化收入运行率超过 495 亿元人民币,约合 73 亿美元,是阿里云增长提速的核心引擎。下面我从四个关键方面展开:AI 与云的商业化、全栈 AI 能力、AI 应用生态,以及消费业务。第一,AI 与云的商业化全面提速,预计未来将保持高增长。
P00402:33
This quarter, Alibaba Cloud's external revenue growth accelerated to 45%, a 22-quarter high, while Adjusted EBITDA margin reached 11.6%. Notably, this 45% growth was broad-based, driven by compute storage Model as a Service, MaaS, and AI applications. We proactively scaled back low-margin business, continuing to improve the quality of our growth. This quarter, annual revenue run rate from AI-related products exceeded CNY 49.5 billion, and its share of Alibaba Cloud's external revenue rose to 35%. AI-related products generate significantly higher gross margins than the average cloud portfolio. Our recurring AI-related product revenue spans multiple layers: AI compute, MaaS, and AI applications. This multilayered mix of AI revenue sources and monetization models means growing customer demand at any layer converts directly into commercial opportunity for us. This structural advantage will underpin sustained rapid growth in recurring AI-related product revenue going forward.
本季度,阿里云外部收入增速加快至 45%,为 22 个季度以来的最高水平,经调整 EBITDA 利润率(注:按业绩公告应为经调整 EBITA 利润率)达到 11.6%。值得注意的是,这 45% 的增长是全面的,由算力、存储、模型即服务(MaaS)和 AI 应用共同驱动。我们主动收缩了低利润率业务,持续提升增长质量。本季度,AI 相关产品的年化收入运行率超过 495 亿元人民币,占阿里云外部收入的比例升至 35%。AI 相关产品的毛利率显著高于云产品组合的平均水平。我们的经常性 AI 相关产品收入覆盖多个层次:AI 算力、MaaS 和 AI 应用。这种多层次的 AI 收入来源与变现模式组合,意味着任何一层的客户需求增长都会直接转化为我们的商业机会。这一结构性优势将支撑经常性 AI 相关产品收入在未来持续快速增长。
P00503:36
The surge in AI agents directly drives demand for tokens and GPU compute, while also significantly boosting demand for our traditional cloud products across CPU compute, storage databases, and networking. Alibaba Cloud is undergoing a comprehensive upgrade to an agentic cloud. Based on the latest data, the ARR of our model and application services, including MaaS, has surpassed CNY 16 billion . Based on current market feedback and our contract pipelines, compute demand will continue to outstrip supply. As we continue to ramp up our supply, our AI and cloud revenue growth will accelerate further in the coming quarters, alongside continued improvement in profitability. Second, our full-stack AI capabilities continue to strengthen, marked by the scaled commercialization of proprietary chips, faster model iteration, and a thriving open-source ecosystem. This quarter, deepening synergy between proprietary T-Head chips and proprietary foundation models further improved our AI commercialization efficiency.
AI 智能体的爆发直接带动了对 token 和 GPU 算力的需求,同时也显著拉动了我们 CPU 算力、存储、数据库和网络等传统云产品的需求。阿里云正在全面升级为智能体云。根据最新数据,包括 MaaS 在内的模型与应用服务的年度经常性收入(ARR)已超过 160 亿元人民币。根据目前的市场反馈和我们的合同储备,算力需求将继续超过供给。随着我们持续提升供给,AI 与云的收入增速将在未来几个季度进一步加快,盈利能力也将持续改善。第二,我们的全栈 AI 能力持续增强,体现在自研芯片的规模化商用、更快的模型迭代以及繁荣的开源生态。本季度,自研平头哥(T-Head)芯片与自研基础模型之间的协同不断加深,进一步提升了我们的 AI 商业化效率。
P00604:41
T-Head has established a full-stack proprietary silicon portfolio spanning GPU, CPU, and networking chips. As of early August, Zhenwu chips have served more than 650 customers on Alibaba Cloud. The SuperNode instance, powered by T-Head's next-generation Zhenwu M890 AI processor, recently launched on Alibaba Cloud at commercial scale. We expect supply to continue ramping up in the second half of the year to meet strong customer demand. Alibaba Cloud's Zhenwu M890 SuperNode can efficiently run inference workload for foundation models with more than 2 trillion parameters. Both Kimi K3 and Qwen 3.8 Max are already using it to provide MaaS services to external customers. At the data center layer, Alibaba Cloud has cut the delivery time for hyperscale AI data centers to 100 days, a world-leading pace that will significantly speed up our global compute infrastructure buildup.
平头哥已建立起覆盖 GPU、CPU 和网络芯片的全栈自研芯片组合。截至 8 月初,真武(Zhenwu)芯片已在阿里云上服务了 650 多家客户。搭载平头哥新一代真武 M890 AI 处理器的超节点(SuperNode)实例近期已在阿里云规模化商用上线。我们预计下半年供给将继续爬坡,以满足强劲的客户需求。阿里云的真武 M890 超节点能够高效运行参数超过 2 万亿的基础模型的推理负载。Kimi K3 和 Qwen 3.8 Max 都已在使用它向外部客户提供 MaaS 服务。在数据中心层面,阿里云已将超大规模 AI 数据中心的交付时间缩短至 100 天,这一全球领先的速度将显著加快我们全球算力基础设施的建设。
P00705:35
At the model layer, our model release cadence has intensified over the past month with major iterations across our large language, image, audio, video, and music models, all ranking among the world's top tier. Last week, we opened the model weights of Qwen 3.8 Max with 2.4 trillion parameters and the Qwen 3.8- 27B model series. To date, the Qwen model series has been downloaded more than 3 billion times globally, with more than 300,000 derivative models built on it. We believe a thriving open source model ecosystem drives greater demand for our cloud computing services, creating a virtual cycle. Third, our AI native applications span both enterprise and consumer use cases, driving rapid growth in token consumption. On the enterprise side, we launched QwenWork, a new AI productivity product built for enterprise workforce scenarios, delivering agentic capabilities at scale.
在模型层,过去一个月我们的模型发布节奏明显加快,大语言、图像、音频、视频和音乐模型均有重大迭代,全部位居全球第一梯队。上周,我们开放了 2.4 万亿参数的 Qwen 3.8 Max 以及 Qwen 3.8-27B 系列模型的权重。迄今为止,Qwen 系列模型的全球下载量已超过 30 亿次,基于它构建的衍生模型超过 300,000 个。我们相信,繁荣的开源模型生态会带来更多对我们云计算服务的需求,形成良性循环(注:原文 virtual cycle 应为 virtuous cycle)。第三,我们的 AI 原生应用覆盖企业和消费者场景,推动 token 消耗快速增长。在企业端,我们推出了千问办公(QwenWork),这是一款面向企业员工工作场景的全新 AI 生产力产品,可规模化提供智能体能力。
P00806:31
We expect productivity agents to become another engine of ARR growth. On the consumer side, the Qwen app continued to steadily grow its user base and is expanding the range of its value-added offerings. Through close coordination between Alibaba Token Hub and Alibaba Cloud, we're running a highly efficient commercial flywheel across compute models, tokens, applications, and monetization. Fourth, our e-commerce businesses remained solid this quarter. In quick commerce, we continued to narrow losses substantially while growing business scale by 45%, with unit economics improving quarter-over-quarter. Having crossed the AI commercialization inflection point last quarter, we're now seeing growth accelerate and margins expand this quarter. Our AI business' own capacity to self-fund and sustain itself is strengthening, giving us greater confidence to keep investing. Looking ahead, AI has become Alibaba's most certain growth engine.
我们预计生产力智能体将成为 ARR 增长的又一引擎。在消费者端,千问 app 的用户规模持续稳步增长,增值服务的范围也在扩大。通过 Alibaba Token Hub 与阿里云的紧密协同,我们正在算力、模型、token、应用和变现之间运转一个高效的商业飞轮。第四,本季度我们的电商业务保持稳健。即时零售方面,我们在业务规模增长 45% 的同时持续大幅收窄亏损,单位经济效益环比改善。上季度跨过 AI 商业化拐点之后,本季度我们看到增长加速、利润率扩张。我们 AI 业务自我造血、自我维持的能力在增强,这让我们更有信心持续投入。展望未来,AI 已成为阿里巴巴最确定的增长引擎。
P00907:26
We will stay strategically disciplined and drive long-term growth through our full stack AI capabilities. I will now hand over to Toby to walk you through our financial results. Thank you.
我们将保持战略定力,依托全栈 AI 能力推动长期增长。下面我请 Toby 介绍财务业绩。谢谢。
P01007:39
Toby XuCFO
Thank you, Eddie. Our strategic priorities in AI plus cloud and consumption businesses, backed by disciplined investments, delivered strong results this quarter. Cloud segment revenue growth further accelerated to 45%, with its EBITDA margin sequentially rising to 12%. AI-related product revenue continued to drive this momentum, marking the 12th consecutive quarter of triple-digit growth and accounting for 35% of external cloud revenue. The strong performance demonstrates growing customer adoption of our full stack AI capabilities, spanning AI agents, models, cloud infrastructure, and proprietary chips, as well as our enhanced scale efficiencies and the robust pricing power in a supply-constrained market. On consumption, Taobao Instant Commerce continued to improve its unit economics while maintaining market share. Overall, e-commerce EBITDA remained relatively stable year-over-year. To realize synergies across our commerce platforms and strengthen our full stack AI capabilities, we have implemented strategic realignment of certain businesses in our financial reporting.
谢谢 Eddie。在有纪律的投入支持下,我们在 AI+云和消费业务上的战略重点本季度取得了强劲成果。云分部收入增速进一步加快至 45%,EBITDA 利润率(注:按业绩公告应为经调整 EBITA 利润率)环比升至 12%。AI 相关产品收入持续推动这一势头,连续第 12 个季度实现三位数增长,占外部云收入的 35%。强劲的表现说明客户越来越多地采用我们覆盖 AI 智能体、模型、云基础设施和自研芯片的全栈 AI 能力,也体现了我们规模效率的提升,以及在供给受限的市场中强劲的定价能力。消费业务方面,淘宝闪购持续改善单位经济效益,同时保持了市场份额。整体来看,电商 EBITDA 同比基本稳定。为实现各商业平台之间的协同并强化全栈 AI 能力,我们在财务报告中对部分业务进行了战略性重组。
P01109:04
Starting from this quarter, our segment reporting will present the following. First, Alibaba E-commerce Group. Second, AI Cloud and Compute Services. Third, AI Labs and Applications. And number four, All others. Now let's look at the financial results for this quarter. Total revenue increased 9% year-over-year to CNY 269 billion, driven by the strong momentum in cloud business and quick commerce. Total Adjusted EBITDA decreased 30% to CNY 27.3 billion, primarily attributable to the investment in technology, partly offset by the improved operating results in our cloud business, as well as enhanced operating efficiencies across various businesses. Our GAAP net income was CNY 10.4 billion, a decrease of 75%, primarily due to the decrease in income from operations and decrease in net gains from disposal of investments and mark-to-market changes of our equity investments.
从本季度起,我们的分部报告将呈现如下:第一,阿里巴巴电商集团;第二,AI 云与算力服务;第三,AI 实验室与应用;第四,所有其他。下面看本季度的财务业绩。总收入同比增长 9% 至 2690 亿元人民币,由云业务和即时零售的强劲势头驱动。经调整 EBITDA(注:按业绩公告,273 亿元、同比下降 30% 的是经调整 EBITA)同比下降 30% 至 273 亿元人民币,主要由于对科技的投入,部分被云业务经营业绩的改善以及多项业务运营效率的提升所抵消。按公认会计准则计算的净利润为 104 亿元人民币,下降 75%,主要由于经营利润减少,以及处置投资的净收益和股权投资按市值计价变动的净收益减少。
P01210:17
Operating cash flow this quarter increased by 11% to CNY 22.9 billion, compared to CNY 20.7 billion in the same quarter last year. Free cash flow was an outflow of CNY 44.7 billion, compared to an outflow of CNY 18.8 billion in the same quarter last year. The decrease was mainly attributed to the investment in cloud infrastructure. CapEx was CNY 67.7 billion this quarter, reflecting our continued investments in AI infrastructure to meet strong and growing customer demand. The significant year-over-year increase is due to several reasons, including fluctuations in procurement cycles, increasing in CPU compute capacity driven by anticipated growing customer adoption of AI agents in higher pricing of a broad range of chip components. As of June 30, 2026, we held approximately $30.7 billion in net cash. Excluding debt with maturities beyond five years, our net cash position stands at approximately $46.5 billion.
本季度经营现金流增长 11% 至 229 亿元人民币,上年同期为 207 亿元人民币。自由现金流为净流出 447 亿元人民币,上年同期为净流出 188 亿元人民币。下降主要源于对云基础设施的投入。本季度资本开支为 677 亿元人民币,反映我们为满足强劲且不断增长的客户需求而持续投资 AI 基础设施。同比大幅增长有几方面原因,包括采购周期的波动、预期客户对 AI 智能体的采用增加而扩充 CPU 算力,以及多种芯片零部件价格上涨。截至 2026 年 6 月 30 日,我们持有约 307 亿美元的净现金。剔除期限超过五年的债务后,我们的净现金约为 465 亿美元。
P01311:33
This balance sheet strength gives us confidence to invest for robust growth. Our AI plus cloud investment has a clear path to attractive ROIC. Our servers equipped with chips typically reach break even within three years. With a five-year useful life, we expect them to generate positive free cash flow, at least in the two years following breakeven. For the quarter ended June 30, 2026, we repurchased shares of an aggregate consideration of $162 billion. We remain committed to maximizing long-term shareholder returns through disciplining the capital allocation across investments for AI plus cloud business growth, share buybacks, and dividends. We will adjust our priorities as market conditions and the strategic needs evolve. Now let's first look at our e-commerce businesses. The new Alibaba E-commerce Group reflects our strategic focus on unlocking significant synergies across our domestic and cross-border e-commerce businesses.
强健的资产负债表让我们有信心为强劲增长而投资。我们的 AI+云投资有清晰的路径获得有吸引力的投入资本回报率(ROIC)。我们配备芯片的服务器通常在三年内实现盈亏平衡。按五年使用寿命计算,我们预计它们在盈亏平衡后至少两年内产生正的自由现金流。截至 2026 年 6 月 30 日止季度,我们回购股份的总对价为 1620 亿美元(注:转录有误,业绩公告为 1.62 亿美元,回购 1,340 万股普通股)。我们将继续通过在 AI+云业务增长投入、股票回购和股息之间有纪律地配置资本,致力于实现长期股东回报最大化。我们会随市场条件和战略需要的变化调整优先次序。下面先看电商业务。新的阿里巴巴电商集团体现了我们释放国内与跨境电商业务之间巨大协同效应的战略重点。
P01412:42
Starting from this quarter, we will present Alibaba E-commerce Group's revenue as the following. First, China eCommerce. Second, China Quick Commerce. Third, International eCommerce, and fourth, Global Wholesale. Revenue for Alibaba E-commerce Group was CNY 205.9 billion, an increase of 4%. Customer managing revenue decreased by 7%, excluding the contrary revenue impact from the new business development program, customer management revenue would have grown by 1% year-over-year. Revenue from China Quick Commerce business was CNY 53.3 billion, an increase of 45%, driven by Freshippo and Taobao Instant Commerce. Alibaba E-commerce Group's Adjusted EBITDA remained relatively stable year-over-year at CNY 39.7 billion, underscoring our cost discipline against the backdrop of increased investments in user experiences and technology. Taobao Instant Commerce continued to improve its unit economics quarter-over-quarter while maintaining market share, driven by higher average order value and enhanced fulfillment logistics efficiency.
从本季度起,我们将按以下口径列报阿里巴巴电商集团的收入:第一,中国电商;第二,中国即时零售;第三,国际电商;第四,全球批发。阿里巴巴电商集团收入为 2059 亿元人民币,增长 4%。客户管理收入下降 7%,若剔除新营销发展计划产生的视作收入冲减(注:原文 contrary 应为 contra)影响,客户管理收入同比将增长 1%。中国即时零售业务收入为 533 亿元人民币,增长 45%,由盒马和淘宝闪购驱动。阿里巴巴电商集团经调整 EBITDA(注:按业绩公告应为经调整 EBITA)同比基本稳定,为 397 亿元人民币,体现了在加大用户体验和科技投入背景下的成本纪律。在更高的客单价和履约物流效率提升的推动下,淘宝闪购的单位经济效益环比持续改善,同时保持了市场份额。
P01514:04
In addition, AliExpress achieved operating profit this quarter. We aim to maintain steady profit in our conventional e-commerce business while continuing to drive profitability improvement in our quick commerce business. Now let's review the business updates and results of AI Cloud and Compute Services, which comprises the Cloud Intelligence Group and T-Head. The year-over-year growth of total revenue and revenue from external customers both accelerated to 45%. Revenue from Alibaba Cloud also accelerated, growing 45% year-over-year. We are confident the growth rate will further accelerate in the coming quarters. This quarter's AI-related product revenue was CNY 12.4 billion, implying a revenue run rate of CNY 49.5 billion. It delivered a 12th consecutive quarter of triple-digit growth and accounted for 35% of external cloud revenue.
此外,速卖通(AliExpress)本季度实现了经营盈利。我们的目标是在传统电商业务上保持稳定盈利,同时持续推动即时零售业务的盈利改善。下面回顾 AI 云与算力服务的业务进展与业绩,该分部由云智能集团和平头哥组成。总收入和外部客户收入的同比增速均加快至 45%。阿里云收入也加速,同比增长 45%。我们有信心未来几个季度增速将进一步加快。本季度 AI 相关产品收入为 124 亿元人民币,对应年化收入运行率 495 亿元人民币,连续第 12 个季度实现三位数增长,占外部云收入的 35%。
P01615:12
The Adjusted EBITDA margin expanded to 12%, driven by improved economies of scale and a stronger pricing power of AI-related products amid tight market supply. We expect EBITDA margin to further expand steadily in the coming quarters. By improving resource utilization, optimizing model portfolio, and innovating new scenarios, we are accelerating the growth of AI plus cloud business and driving greater benefits of scale. AI Labs and Applications comprises AI Model Labs, Qwen Consumer Business Group, and QwenWork. Its Adjusted EBITDA was a loss of CNY 13.9 billion, primarily due to our increased investment in AI capabilities and higher inference costs related to Qwen app. The loss significantly narrowed quarter-over-quarter due to the reduction in marketing expenses for Qwen app. We expect the segment loss to narrow over the coming quarters, driven by improving efficiency in both model training and marketing spend on Qwen app.
经调整 EBITDA 利润率(注:按业绩公告应为经调整 EBITA 利润率)扩大至 12%,得益于规模经济的改善以及在市场供给紧张背景下 AI 相关产品更强的定价能力。我们预计未来几个季度 EBITDA 利润率将进一步稳步扩大。通过提升资源利用率、优化模型组合和创新场景,我们正在加速 AI+云业务的增长并释放更大的规模效益。AI 实验室与应用分部包括 AI 模型实验室、千问 C 端事业群和千问办公。其经调整 EBITDA(注:按业绩公告应为经调整 EBITA)为亏损 139 亿元人民币,主要由于我们加大了对 AI 能力的投入以及千问 app 相关的推理成本上升。由于千问 app 的营销费用减少,亏损环比显著收窄。我们预计在模型训练效率和千问 app 营销投放效率均持续提升的推动下,该分部亏损将在未来几个季度收窄。
P01716:29
We have launched our frontier language coding, video, audio, image, and music models, all delivering top-tier performance. 250 million users have had their first AI-driven shopping experience through Qwen app's agentic features across an expanding range of e-commerce and other services since the launch of Qwen app. All other segment revenue remained stable at CNY 28.8 billion. All other's Adjusted EBITDA was a loss of CNY 3.3 billion, primarily due to our increased investment in technology. AI has progressed from incubation to commercialization at scale. As we expand our market share, strengthen AI leadership, and improving operating efficiency, we are gaining greater strategic and financial flexibility to make disciplined and sustained investments in both full stack AI capabilities and consumption opportunities, driving secular growth and greater value for our shareholders. Thank you. That's the end of our prepared remarks. We can open up for Q&A.
我们已推出前沿的语言、编程、视频、音频、图像和音乐模型,性能均位居第一梯队。自千问 app 上线以来,已有 2.5 亿用户通过其智能体功能,在日益丰富的电商及其他服务中首次体验了 AI 驱动的购物。所有其他分部收入保持稳定,为 288 亿元人民币。所有其他分部的经调整 EBITDA(注:按业绩公告应为经调整 EBITA)为亏损 33 亿元人民币,主要由于我们加大了科技投入。AI 已从孵化走向规模化商业化。随着我们扩大市场份额、巩固 AI 领先地位并提升运营效率,我们在战略和财务上获得更大的灵活性,可以对全栈 AI 能力和消费机会进行有纪律、可持续的投入,推动长期增长并为股东创造更大价值。谢谢。我们的准备发言到此结束,下面进入问答环节。
P01817:43
Lydia LiuHead of Investor Relations
Thank you, Toby. We will now begin the Q&A session. You are welcome to ask questions in Chinese or English. A third-party translator will provide consecutive interpretation. In the case of any discrepancy, our management statements in the original language will prevail. Operator, please start Q&A session. Thank you.
谢谢 Toby。现在开始问答环节。欢迎用中文或英文提问,第三方译员将提供交替传译。如有歧义,以管理层的原语言发言为准。接线员,请开始问答环节。谢谢。
问答环节
P01918:06
Operator
Thank you. If you wish to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. If you wish to cancel your request, please press two. If you are on a speakerphone, please pick up the handset to ask a question. To give more people the opportunity to ask questions, please keep yourself to no more than one question at a time. Your first question comes from Alicia Yap with Citigroup. Please go ahead.
谢谢。如需提问,请在电话上按星号键和 1,并等待宣布您的姓名。如需取消提问,请按 2。如使用免提电话,请拿起听筒提问。为让更多人有机会提问,每次请只提一个问题。第一个问题来自花旗的 Alicia Yap。请提问。
P02018:34
Alicia YapAnalyst, Citigroup
Thank you. Good evening, management. Thanks for taking my questions and also congrats on your solid cloud performance. Could management please comment on the reasons and the drivers for the significant increase in the CapEx this quarter? What is the expected CapEx trend for the coming quarters? Are there any updates to the existing three-year CapEx budget that you have of this CNY 380 billion that you mentioned before? We would appreciate if management can also provide a breakdown of the CapEx allocation across the different services, like the training part and all that. What is management expected return on the invested capital for this investment? Thank you.
谢谢。管理层晚上好。感谢回答我的问题,也祝贺云业务表现稳健。能否请管理层谈谈本季度资本开支大幅增加的原因和驱动因素?未来几个季度资本开支的走势预计如何?之前提到的 3800 亿元人民币三年资本开支预算有没有更新?如果管理层能提供资本开支在不同服务(比如训练等)之间的分配明细就更好了。管理层预期这笔投资的投入资本回报率是多少?谢谢。
P02119:29
Eddie WuCEO
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P02221:45
Eddie Wu(经同传)CEO已校正
Thank you very much for the question. It's an important question, and I'd like to take the opportunity perhaps to explain generally what our business model is for AI and our expectations around CapEx going forward. Indeed, last February we announced a three-year capital investment plan with total investment of CNY 380 billion . As of the end of the June quarter this year, we had already spent CNY 190 billion with progress broadly in line with our expectations. While this quarter spending of CNY 67.1 billion is somewhat higher, hardware deliveries follow different procurement cycles. There can be fluctuations in the cadence and pace of hardware deliveries. It's not evenly distributed across different quarters. The increase primarily reflects volatility in those equipment delivery schedules.
非常感谢这个问题。这是一个重要的问题,我想借此机会概括介绍一下我们 AI 的商业模式以及对未来资本开支的预期。确实,去年 2 月我们宣布了总投资 3800 亿元人民币的三年资本投入计划。截至今年 6 月季度末,我们已经投入了 1900 亿元人民币,进度大体符合预期。虽然本季度 671 亿元人民币(注:业绩公告为 676.78 亿元)的支出有所偏高,但硬件交付遵循不同的采购周期,硬件交付的节奏和进度可能有波动,并非在各季度均匀分布。本季的增加主要反映了设备交付时间表的波动。
P02322:48
Eddie Wu(经同传)CEO已校正
At the same time, we increased procurement of CPUs this quarter as we are witnessing a substantial surge in demand driven by the agent-centric era. Of course, rising prices for semiconductor components have also contributed to this trend. I don't think we should take the spending for this quarter and multiply it by four to come up with an annualized figure for the year or to expect that there'll be a steady linear progression. The build-out has been progressing at a steady pace. That is the overall situation.
与此同时,由于我们看到智能体时代带来的需求大幅激增,本季度我们增加了 CPU 的采购。当然,半导体零部件价格上涨也推动了这一趋势。我认为不应该把本季度的支出乘以 4 来得出全年的年化数字,也不应预期会有稳定的线性增长。建设一直在以稳定的节奏推进。这就是整体情况。
P02423:29
Eddie WuCEO
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P02524:54
Eddie Wu(经同传)CEO已校正
Next, let me expand on our full stack AI business model. This is an asset heavy business model. If you think about all of the different ways that AI is monetized and can be monetized, be it through software subscriptions, be it through API calls, through models as a service, through training, inference, in all of these different respects, you need compute centers to run and to monetize. It's only possible to monetize when you have that compute capacity in place. What that means is that we need to be investing upfront in order to be able to grow this business model and monetize across all of those different areas. That's why beginning in 2025, we began a heavy investment cycle in hardware. This is really a function of that asset heavy business model, as I explained.
接下来我展开谈一下我们的全栈 AI 商业模式。这是一个重资产的商业模式。想一想 AI 变现和可以变现的各种方式,无论是软件订阅、API 调用、模型即服务,还是训练、推理,在所有这些方面,都需要算力中心来运行和变现。只有算力到位才可能变现。这意味着我们需要先行投入,才能发展这一商业模式并在所有这些领域变现。这就是为什么从 2025 年开始,我们进入了硬件的重投入周期。正如我所解释的,这实际上是重资产商业模式的必然结果。
P02626:03
Eddie Wu(经同传)CEO已校正
In order to be able to capture that future growth, we first need to make these CapEx investments to build out the necessary compute capacity.
为了把握未来的增长,我们首先需要进行这些资本开支投入,建设所需的算力。
P02726:12
Eddie WuCEO
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P02827:08
Eddie Wu(经同传)CEO已校正
Next, let me explain why we see return on invested capital in AI related CapEx as highly certain. There is a consensus across the industry that the current shortage in AI compute will not be resolved until at least 2030. Industry wide, it makes sense that there should be high certainty in our investments in AI compute. Based on average gross margins today, roughly, we can break even on AI related CapEx in three years. Of course, average gross margin continues to rise, and we expect to be able to shorten that payback period, say, to 2.5 years.
接下来我解释一下,为什么我们认为 AI 相关资本开支的投入资本回报确定性很高。业内有一个共识:当前 AI 算力的短缺至少到 2030 年才会解决。从全行业来看,我们在 AI 算力上的投入理应具有很高的确定性。按目前的平均毛利率,大致而言,我们可以在三年内收回 AI 相关资本开支。当然,平均毛利率还在持续上升,我们预计能把回收期缩短到,比如说 2.5 年。
P02928:00
Eddie WuCEO
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P03028:43
Eddie Wu(经同传)CEO已校正
Following that three-year payback period, these AI assets that we have invested in can achieve very positive and robust cash flow. To give you some direct examples, a V100 purchased in 2018, even today are still running at full capacity.
在这三年的回收期之后,我们投资的这些 AI 资产可以产生非常可观且稳健的现金流。举个直接的例子,2018 年购买的 V100,直到今天仍在满负荷运行。
P03129:13
Eddie WuCEO
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P03230:04
Eddie Wu(经同传)CEO已校正
Additionally, we have three means that we can leverage to further enhance gross margin and return on invested capital. First is we can continue to develop state of the art models, enhance growth margin on AI products themselves, and continue to expand a higher margin Model-as-a-Service MaaS businesses. We can adapt our product mix across IaaS and across software to achieve higher gross margin on the portfolio as a whole. As a result of improving gross margin, you have already seen an overall increase of 4.4 percentage points in Alibaba Cloud's overall segment profitability, bringing it this quarter to 11.6%. That represents initial validation of that thesis.
此外,我们还有三种手段可以进一步提升毛利率和投入资本回报率。第一,我们可以继续开发最先进的模型,提高 AI 产品本身的毛利率(注:原文 growth margin 应为 gross margin),并继续扩大利润率更高的模型即服务(MaaS)业务。我们可以调整 IaaS 和软件之间的产品组合,提升整体组合的毛利率。由于毛利率改善,大家已经看到阿里云整体分部利润率提升了 4.4 个百分点,本季度达到 11.6%。这是对这一判断的初步验证。
P03331:03
Eddie WuCEO
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P03432:03
Eddie Wu(经同传)CEO已校正
A very important piece of this is our ability to deploy our own proprietary chips. As you know, our own T-Head proprietary chips span GPUs, CPUs, and networking chips, which are the critical chipsets for AI. In AI data centers, the most expensive components are of course chips and storage. We have a very significant advantage in being able to deploy our own proprietary chips. As we ramp up deployment of our own proprietary chips in our data centers, as they account for an increasing proportion of total chips and replace commercially procured chips, we can expect to see substantially higher gross margin as well as profitability.
其中非常重要的一点是我们部署自研芯片的能力。大家知道,我们的平头哥自研芯片覆盖 GPU、CPU 和网络芯片,这些都是 AI 的关键芯片组。在 AI 数据中心里,最昂贵的部件当然是芯片和存储。能够部署自研芯片是我们非常显著的优势。随着我们在数据中心加大自研芯片的部署,它们在芯片总量中的占比不断提高并替代外购商用芯片,我们可以预期毛利率和盈利能力大幅提升。
被引用:↩ 基本面档案 · 投资要点
P03532:59
Eddie WuCEO
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P03633:27
Eddie Wu(经同传)CEO已校正
Third, also very importantly, we have means to monetize and get better efficiency of utilization of our own cash flow. These include, for example, co-building data centers with partners, as well as pre-charging and receiving prepayments for compute-based services. These are important ways in which we can further enhance ROIC.
第三,同样非常重要,我们有办法变现并更高效地利用自身现金流,例如与合作伙伴共建数据中心,以及对算力类服务预先收费、收取预付款。这些都是我们进一步提升投入资本回报率的重要方式。
P03733:58
Eddie WuCEO
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P03835:05
Eddie Wu(经同传)CEO已校正
Through these three different methods, we can shorten the payback period for AI CapEx, for example, to 2.5 years or even two years. We can apply a simple framework to understand this. At our current level of gross margin for AI products, under the assumption of a three-year payback period on CapEx, theoretically, keeping our growth rate below 33% would already enable positive cash flow. However, that is not our strategic choice at this time. Given that AI remains in a very early stage, we are committed to aggressively investing in CapEx and proactively scaling up to drive our rapid business expansion. As our product gross margin improves and our proprietary chip substitution rate increases, our payback period will shorten to 2.5 years or even less.
通过这三种方式,我们可以把 AI 资本开支的回收期缩短到比如 2.5 年甚至两年。可以用一个简单的框架来理解:在目前 AI 产品的毛利率水平下,假设资本开支回收期为三年,理论上只要把增速控制在 33% 以下,就已经能实现正现金流。但这不是我们目前的战略选择。鉴于 AI 仍处于非常早期的阶段,我们决心积极投入资本开支、主动扩大规模,以推动业务快速扩张。随着产品毛利率提升和自研芯片替代率提高,我们的回收期将缩短到 2.5 年甚至更短。
P03936:07
Eddie Wu(经同传)CEO已校正
Under those circumstances, while pursuing growth of over 40%, we will also be able to maintain positive cash flow. That is our long-term strategic direction.
在这种情况下,我们在追求 40% 以上增长的同时,也能保持正的现金流。这是我们长期的战略方向。
P04036:21
Eddie WuCEO
Ok.
好的。
P04136:25
Lydia LiuHead of Investor Relations
Next question, please.
请下一个问题。
P04236:28
Operator
Thank you. Your next question comes from Charlene Liu with HSBC. Please go ahead.
谢谢。下一个问题来自汇丰的 Charlene Liu。请提问。
P04336:35
Charlene LiuAnalyst, HSBC
I am from HSBC. Thank you very much for this opportunity. Thank you for taking my question. First, can we get an update on the latest developments in quick commerce and under the reclassification of multiple business lines, which are regrouped under the Alibaba E-commerce Group? Can you talk about the future strategic focuses of these lines of businesses? Let me quickly translate the question myself [Non-English content].Thank you。
我来自汇丰。非常感谢给我这个机会,感谢回答我的问题。首先,能否介绍一下即时零售的最新进展,以及在多条业务线重新归类、合并到阿里巴巴电商集团之后,这些业务线未来的战略重点是什么?我自己快速翻译一下这个问题 [非英语内容]。谢谢。
P04437:36
Jiang FanCEO of Alibaba E-commerce Business Group
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P04538:32
Jiang Fan(经同传)CEO of Alibaba E-commerce Business Group已校正
Okay, thank you very much for the question as well as for the translation. In the new fiscal year, indeed we have realigned our e-commerce business segments and moving forward, we will be updating progress on four core areas: China e-commerce, quick commerce, international e-commerce and global B2B global wholesale. Let me then briefly share the strategic priorities and key considerations for each of these four segments in the period ahead. Starting with China e-commerce. While the domestic e-commerce landscape faces short-term macroeconomic challenges, our long-term strategy centers on strengthening core supply capabilities, and at the same time, we aim to leverage AI to enhance the overall shopping experience and improve operation efficiency across the board. First, regarding supply, since last year, Taobao and Tmall have focused on supporting original merchants, including branded sellers, while simultaneously unlocking the potential of high quality white label suppliers from key industrial clusters.
好的,非常感谢您的问题和翻译。在新财年,我们确实重新调整了电商业务分部,今后将就四个核心领域更新进展:中国电商、即时零售、国际电商和全球 B2B(全球批发)。下面我简要介绍这四个板块接下来的战略重点和主要考量。先说中国电商。虽然国内电商格局面临短期宏观经济挑战,但我们的长期战略聚焦于强化核心供给能力,同时利用 AI 全面提升购物体验和运营效率。首先是供给,自去年以来,淘宝和天猫一直重点扶持原创商家(包括品牌商家),同时释放重点产业带优质白牌供应商的潜力。
P04639:47
Jiang FanCEO of Alibaba E-commerce Business Group
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P04740:39
Jiang Fan(经同传)CEO of Alibaba E-commerce Business Group已校正
We will continue to strengthen our partnerships with leading brand merchants, helping them achieve stable and sustainable business growth. Tmall remains the most critical operational hub for both major brands and many original merchants. At the same time, we are diving deeper into industrial clusters to source high quality products directly from their origins. We are supporting more manufacturing factories and operating directly on our platform and leveraging our platform AI capabilities to enable white label merchants to adopt a simpler and more efficient managed operation model. The share of transactions being generated through that industrial cluster managed model continues to rise steadily. In the past quarter, during the recent 618 Shopping Festival, despite certain macroeconomic challenges, the outcomes were aligned with our expectations, and notably, core merchants achieved solid growth.
我们将继续加强与头部品牌商家的合作,帮助他们实现稳定、可持续的业务增长。天猫仍是大品牌和众多原创商家最关键的经营阵地。与此同时,我们正在更深入地走进产业带,从源头直接采购优质商品。我们正在支持更多工厂直接在平台上经营,并利用平台的 AI 能力让白牌商家采用更简单、更高效的托管运营模式。通过产业带托管模式产生的交易占比持续稳步上升。在过去一个季度刚刚结束的 618 购物节期间,尽管存在一定的宏观经济挑战,结果仍符合我们的预期,尤其是核心商家实现了稳健增长。
P04841:43
Jiang FanCEO of Alibaba E-commerce Business Group
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P04942:28
Jiang Fan(经同传)CEO of Alibaba E-commerce Business Group已校正
At the same time, we see significant opportunities for AI across both the supply and demand sides of e-commerce. On the consumer side, we will continue to launch new experiences and scenarios powered by AI, such as multimodal search and virtual try-ons. Our goal is twofold. First, to use AI technology to enhance the experience and efficiency of existing shopping scenarios, and we've already observed that AI has driven significant efficiency gains in our product recommendations. Secondly, to drive new kinds of AI driven interaction. On the merchant side, we observed that merchants are already widely adopting AI in their operations. We're exploring ways to leverage AI across various operational links to boost merchant capabilities, particularly in data analytics, advertising and marketing, and customer service, where merchants can derive clear benefits.
同时,我们看到 AI 在电商供需两端都有巨大机会。在消费者端,我们将继续推出由 AI 驱动的新体验和新场景,如多模态搜索和虚拟试穿。我们的目标有两个:一是用 AI 技术提升现有购物场景的体验和效率,我们已经看到 AI 大幅提升了商品推荐的效率;二是推动新型的 AI 驱动交互。在商家端,我们看到商家已在经营中广泛使用 AI。我们正在探索在各个运营环节利用 AI 提升商家能力,尤其是在数据分析、广告营销和客户服务等商家能明确获益的领域。
P05043:26
Jiang Fan(经同传)CEO of Alibaba E-commerce Business Group已校正
Going forward, we'll also collaborate with Qwen Office to launch AI agents that are specifically tailored for e-commerce scenarios.
未来,我们还将与千问办公(Qwen Office)合作,推出专门针对电商场景的 AI 智能体。
P05143:37
Jiang FanCEO of Alibaba E-commerce Business Group
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P05244:27
Jiang Fan(经同传)CEO of Alibaba E-commerce Business Group已校正
Next on quick commerce. After more than a year of investment and development, Taobao Instant Commerce has undergone substantial changes in scale and in market share, with significant improvements across user mindshare, supply diversity, logistics experience, and order volume. Last quarter, while maintaining growth in both users and orders, unit economics, UE, substantially improved and losses significantly reduced. On that basis, we will accelerate the integration of businesses such as Freshippo and Tmall Supermarket to develop the non-food categories growth within the quick commerce business. We'll place a particular focus on expanding our front warehouses. Over the past year, Freshippo has accelerated the development of front warehouses, leading to a year-over-year increase in GMV.
接下来是即时零售。经过一年多的投入和发展,淘宝闪购在规模和市场份额上发生了实质性变化,用户心智、供给丰富度、物流体验和订单量都显著提升。上个季度,在用户和订单保持增长的同时,单位经济效益(UE)大幅改善,亏损显著减少。在此基础上,我们将加快整合盒马、天猫超市等业务,发展即时零售中非餐饮品类的增长,并将重点扩张前置仓。过去一年,盒马加快了前置仓建设,带动 GMV 同比增长。
P05345:28
Jiang FanCEO of Alibaba E-commerce Business Group
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P05446:00
Jiang Fan(经同传)CEO of Alibaba E-commerce Business Group已校正
Meanwhile, quick commerce will continue to expand its category coverage and innovate in key areas to enhance the consumer experience. We expect the transaction volume of quick commerce for non-food categories to surpass that of food categories within the next fiscal year, driving growth in many different physical goods categories across the overall e-commerce business. The quick commerce business is expected to achieve overall profitability in FY2029. In the long term, we believe it has the potential to contribute 30% of the platform's total GMV, becoming the second growth curve for our e-commerce business.
与此同时,即时零售将继续扩大品类覆盖,并在关键领域创新以提升消费者体验。我们预计在下一财年内,即时零售非餐饮品类的交易额将超过餐饮品类,带动整个电商业务中众多实物品类的增长。即时零售业务预计将在 2029 财年实现整体盈利。长期而言,我们认为它有潜力贡献平台总 GMV 的 30%,成为我们电商业务的第二增长曲线。
P05546:50
Jiang FanCEO of Alibaba E-commerce Business Group
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P05647:26
Jiang Fan(经同传)CEO of Alibaba E-commerce Business Group已校正
Third is international e-commerce. In the short term, our international e-commerce business has indeed been affected by tariff policies and the geopolitical environment, pressuring growth. That said, despite the complex market environment, our cross-border business has delivered significant improvement in profitability while maintaining growth in transaction volume. In terms of both transaction scale and profitability, we believe the cross-border business holds long-term growth potential. In addition, our local e-commerce platforms in international markets such as Turkey and the Middle East are growing rapidly, and operating efficiency in markets such as Southeast Asia continues to improve.
第三是国际电商。短期内,我们的国际电商业务确实受到关税政策和地缘政治环境的影响,增长承压。尽管如此,在复杂的市场环境下,我们的跨境业务在保持交易量增长的同时,盈利能力显著改善。无论从交易规模还是盈利能力看,我们都认为跨境业务具有长期增长潜力。此外,我们在土耳其、中东等海外市场的本地电商平台增长迅速,东南亚等市场的运营效率也在持续提升。
P05748:15
Jiang FanCEO of Alibaba E-commerce Business Group
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P05849:03
Jiang Fan(经同传)CEO of Alibaba E-commerce Business Group已校正
Fourth is global B2B. Our B2B businesses, including the 1688 and Alibaba.com platforms, have grown consistently over the past two decades. We see that AI technology will bring profound changes to our B2B platforms, and may even fundamentally reshape existing business models. In particular, the agentic model will play an increasingly important role in B2B transactions. We've launched Accio Work, which is an AI agent for cross-border merchants, and it had already attracted over 50,000 paying merchants shortly after its launch. AI is comprehensively transforming the way that B2B merchants do business, especially cross-border merchants. We believe that building on our two decades of know-how in this field, we have the opportunity to create entirely new business models and commercial opportunities in B2B and in cross-border trade in the AI era.
第四是全球 B2B。我们的 B2B 业务,包括 1688 和 Alibaba.com 平台,在过去二十年里持续增长。我们看到 AI 技术将给 B2B 平台带来深刻变化,甚至可能从根本上重塑现有商业模式。尤其是智能体模式将在 B2B 交易中发挥越来越重要的作用。我们推出了面向跨境商家的 AI 智能体 Accio Work,上线后不久已吸引超过 50,000 家付费商家。AI 正在全面改变 B2B 商家,尤其是跨境商家的经营方式。我们相信,凭借在这一领域二十年的积累,我们有机会在 AI 时代的 B2B 和跨境贸易中创造全新的商业模式和商业机会。
P05950:10
Jiang FanCEO of Alibaba E-commerce Business Group
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P06050:34
Jiang Fan(经同传)CEO of Alibaba E-commerce Business Group已校正
Overall, over the past few years, we have completed new strategic positioning for our e-commerce businesses across several key areas. Going forward, we aim to continue leveraging our strengths from supply chain synergies to AI technology to unlock greater growth potential for the e-commerce segment in the AI era, while building a more diversified revenue and profit structure to drive steadier development of the overall segment.
总体而言,过去几年我们已在多个关键领域完成了电商业务的新战略定位。未来,我们将继续发挥从供应链协同到 AI 技术的优势,在 AI 时代为电商板块释放更大的增长潜力,同时构建更多元化的收入和利润结构,推动整个板块更加稳健地发展。
P06151:07
Lydia LiuHead of Investor Relations
Operator, let's go to the next question.
接线员,请进入下一个问题。
P06251:10
Operator
Thank you. Your next question comes from Yang Bai with CICC. Please go.
谢谢。下一个问题来自中金公司的 Yang Bai。请提问。
P06351:17
Yang BaiAnalyst, CICC
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P06452:17
Yang BaiAnalyst, CICC已校正
Thank you. My question is about the cloud and AI business. We have seen that Alibaba Cloud's revenue growth has been accelerating quarter by quarter, reaching 45% this quarter. We know the company has previously set a long-term goal of exceeding $1 00 billion in external cloud revenue over the next five years. You have also now indicated that growth will remain on an accelerated trajectory in the quarters ahead. I would like to ask two questions. First, looking ahead to the coming quarters, what do you anticipate being the pace of growth in the cloud business? What are the core drivers underpinning the continued acceleration of cloud computing growth? Secondly, as you have mentioned, the industry is now in a phase of relatively tight capacity in terms of supply of compute. You just mentioned that demand dynamic may shift around 2030.
谢谢。我的问题是关于云和 AI 业务。我们看到阿里云收入增速逐季加快,本季度达到 45%。我们知道公司此前设定了未来五年外部云收入超过 1000 亿美元(原文转录为 $1 00 billion)的长期目标。您现在也表示未来几个季度增长将保持加速。我想问两个问题。第一,展望未来几个季度,您预计云业务的增长节奏如何?支撑云计算增长持续加速的核心驱动力是什么?第二,正如您提到的,行业目前处于算力供给相对紧张的阶段。您刚才提到供需格局可能在 2030 年前后发生变化。
P06553:18
Yang BaiAnalyst, CICC已校正
I would like to ask from an even longer-term perspective, what are the fundamental growth drivers for the cloud business? Do they differ from those in the short term? Thank you.
我想从更长期的角度问一下,云业务的根本增长驱动力是什么?与短期的驱动力有什么不同?谢谢。
P06653:30
Eddie WuCEO
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P06755:33
Eddie Wu(经同传)CEO已校正
Thank you for the question. I think I can expand on this in three different areas. I can start by looking at our current business and the relevant data. Secondly, I can discuss the drivers for growth. Thirdly, I can share with you our long-term perspective based on that analysis. Let me begin with the first part, covering our current business and the key metrics. As you have seen, external revenue for the AI and cloud segment has been accelerating now for nine consecutive quarters. In this last quarter, growth has already accelerated to 45%. We are seeing very strong customer demand, and our offerings boast a distinct competitive advantage compared to those of other cloud providers. As a result, we expect revenue growth to continue accelerating over the coming quarters. We have observed that AI-related products generated CNY 12.4 billion in revenue this quarter.
谢谢这个问题。我想可以从三个方面展开:首先看我们当前的业务和相关数据;其次谈增长驱动力;第三,在此分析基础上分享我们的长期判断。先说第一部分,当前业务和关键指标。大家已经看到,AI 与云分部的外部收入已连续 9 个季度加速,上个季度增速已加快到 45%。我们看到非常强劲的客户需求,我们的产品相比其他云厂商具有明显的竞争优势。因此,我们预计未来几个季度收入增速将继续加快。我们看到本季度 AI 相关产品实现收入 124 亿元人民币。
P06856:50
Eddie Wu(经同传)CEO已校正
If we convert that into an annualized U.S dollar figure, that works out to $7.3 billion in annual revenue. Looking ahead to the next quarter, our own forecast is that that same annualized revenue for AI quarters next quarter will approach $10 billion. Our growth rate remains exceptionally strong. At the same time, we also expect our EBITDA margin to improve quarter by quarter sequentially over the next few quarters. Additionally, something very important in respect of the cloud business is growth in demand for MaaS. We have seen very significant growth in demand for MaaS this quarter, coupled with ongoing improvement in inference efficiency. The ARR of our MaaS business has now surpassed CNY 16 billion. Actually, let me clarify, that is the latest data as of August. It has already surpassed CNY 16 billion.
如果换算成年化美元数字,相当于年收入 73 亿美元。展望下个季度,我们自己的预测是,下个季度 AI 相关产品的同口径年化收入(注:原文 AI quarters 应为 AI-related products)将接近 100 亿美元。我们的增速依然异常强劲。同时,我们也预计未来几个季度 EBITDA 利润率将逐季环比改善。此外,云业务中非常重要的一点是 MaaS 需求的增长。本季度我们看到 MaaS 需求大幅增长,同时推理效率持续提升。我们 MaaS 业务的 ARR 目前已超过 160 亿元人民币。我澄清一下,这是截至 8 月的最新数据,已经超过 160 亿元人民币。
P06958:05
Eddie WuCEO
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P07059:09
Eddie Wu(经同传)CEO已校正
Next, let me expand on the growth drivers within our business model. It is important to understand that Alibaba's investment model for AI is fundamentally different from that of pure-play AI companies. We are pursuing an intensive strategy across the full stack, including chips, including AI cloud infrastructure, and including models. We maintain a leading position in the industry across all three of those most critical domains. Moreover, we believe that the development of AI and technology across the industry is still in its early stages. Looking forward at different stages of technological development, the core commercial value within the AI industry may shift across different layers, including chips, cloud computing models, and applications.
接下来展开谈谈我们商业模式中的增长驱动力。需要理解的一点是,阿里巴巴的 AI 投资模式与纯 AI 公司有根本不同。我们在全栈上推行高强度战略,包括芯片、AI 云基础设施和模型,并在这三个最关键的领域都保持行业领先地位。此外,我们认为整个行业的 AI 和技术发展仍处于早期阶段。展望技术发展的不同阶段,AI 行业的核心商业价值可能在芯片、云计算、模型和应用等不同层次之间迁移。
P0711:00:20
Eddie Wu(经同传)CEO已校正
Our full stack investments ensure that we can deliver optimal service capabilities and the best value for money, positioning us favorably in the industry going forward and ensuring that within each stage of technological development, it is possible for us to maintain competitiveness and sustained growth momentum.
我们的全栈投入确保我们能提供最优的服务能力和最高的性价比,使我们在未来的行业格局中处于有利位置,并确保在技术发展的各个阶段都能保持竞争力和持续的增长势头。
P0721:00:41
Eddie WuCEO
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P0731:02:38
Eddie Wu(经同传)CEO已校正
Next, let me look ahead to what we think is going to be the most important growth driver over the next one to two years in the short term. We have seen exponential demand for commercial inference services as of the end of 2025. This exponential growth in demand for inference has marked a fundamental shift in the model whereby compute has now become the core asset driving AI revenue. Today, all AI related revenue models are centered on AI compute. At the same time, there is a consensus across the industry, as I mentioned, that compute will remain in shortage of supply for some time to come. At the same time, the higher gross margins of mass inference services have also made a major difference.
接下来展望一下我们认为未来一到两年短期内最重要的增长驱动力。自 2025 年底以来,我们看到商业推理服务需求呈指数级增长。推理需求的指数级增长标志着模式的根本转变:算力已成为驱动 AI 收入的核心资产。如今所有 AI 相关的收入模式都围绕 AI 算力展开。同时,正如我提到的,业内的共识是算力在未来相当长一段时间内仍将供不应求。另外,大规模推理服务(注:原文 mass inference 或为 MaaS inference)较高的毛利率也带来了重大变化。
P0741:03:50
Eddie Wu(经同传)CEO已校正
If compute was once a cost center, traditionally, compute has now been transformed into a core productive asset whose value generation is positively correlated with revenue. High priced computing power remains in short supply across the industry, precisely at a time where you have widespread adoption of GPUs across diverse use cases. Pricing models are tending to converge on the most high margin, the most margin generative monetization approaches. This is driving the pricing models for nearly all GPU related products.
如果说算力传统上曾是成本中心,那么现在它已经转变为核心生产性资产,其价值创造与收入正相关。正当 GPU 在各种场景广泛应用之际,高价算力在全行业依然供不应求。定价模式正在向利润率最高、最能创造利润的变现方式收敛,这正在带动几乎所有 GPU 相关产品的定价模式。
P0751:04:34
Eddie Wu(经同传)CEO已校正
Moreover, Alibaba boasts comprehensive multimodal model capabilities. Our models are at the state-of-the-art level within the industry, giving us a distinct advantage in realizing the value of that compute power and providing a robust anchor for our pricing strategy. When it comes time to price for new customers or to re-sign contracts with existing customers as they renew, we can adopt more healthy pricing models. We expect to see this as a very positive short term driver for improving margin in the coming year plus.
此外,阿里巴巴拥有全面的多模态模型能力。我们的模型处于行业最先进水平,这让我们在实现算力价值方面具有明显优势,也为我们的定价策略提供了有力锚点。在为新客户定价、或老客户续约重签合同时,我们可以采用更健康的定价模式。我们预计这将是未来一年多提升利润率的一个非常积极的短期驱动因素。
P0761:05:28
Eddie WuCEO
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P0771:06:55
Eddie Wu(经同传)CEO已校正
Next, let me talk about the scale effects and networking effects, which are very important long-term growth drivers in AI cloud. For the past couple of years, a lot of people have asked: What is the super app for AI? The answer to that is that the real super application is cloud-based AI compute, because all of these different workloads need to run on a full stack of AI cloud compute, including training, inferencing, AI software, and agents requiring GPUs, CPUs, storage databases, virtualization, as well as Harness tools, among others. AI cloud is like a super city in which workload is the residence and continually iterating full stack AI cloud services are the urban infrastructure, which in turn attracts more new residents and enhances the stickiness of the existing residents. This is where you see an extremely powerful network effect and scale effect.
接下来谈谈规模效应和网络效应,这是 AI 云非常重要的长期增长驱动力。过去几年,很多人问:AI 的超级应用是什么?答案是,真正的超级应用是基于云的 AI 算力,因为所有这些不同的负载都需要运行在全栈 AI 云算力上,包括训练、推理、AI 软件,以及需要 GPU、CPU、存储、数据库、虚拟化和 Harness 工具等的智能体。AI 云就像一座超级城市,负载是居民,不断迭代的全栈 AI 云服务是城市基础设施,反过来又吸引更多新居民并增强现有居民的粘性。这就是极其强大的网络效应和规模效应所在。
P0781:08:29
Eddie WuCEO
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P0791:09:28
Eddie Wu(经同传)CEO已校正
Given that we operate the largest number of data centers across any Asian cloud provider, we benefit from the strongest economies of scale. At the same time, the large-scale deployment of our proprietary T-Head AI chips allows us to avoid the high price premiums associated with procuring expensive commercial GPUs, thus avoiding erosion of our gross margins. With our state-of-the-art performance in our proprietary models, we possess strong pricing power for our compute resources. Looking ahead from the perspective of industry development trends and our own product strengths, the long-term revenue growth trend and margin expansion trend are exceptionally strong. As a result, we are highly confident in our ability to achieve our goal of CNY 100 billion in external cloud revenue by 2030. We have good visibility into achieving gross margin of 20%.
由于我们运营的数据中心数量在亚洲云厂商中最多,我们享有最强的规模经济。同时,大规模部署自研平头哥 AI 芯片,使我们能够避免采购昂贵商用 GPU 的高额溢价,从而避免毛利率被侵蚀。凭借自研模型的领先性能,我们对算力资源拥有很强的定价权。从行业发展趋势和自身产品优势来看,长期收入增长趋势和利润率扩张趋势都异常强劲。因此,我们非常有信心实现到 2030 年外部云收入 1000 亿元人民币(注:结合 P064 的提问及云收入规模,此处应为 1000 亿美元)的目标。我们对实现 20% 的毛利率有较好的可见度。
P0801:10:40
Eddie WuCEO
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P0811:10:43
Lydia LiuHead of Investor Relations
Next question, please.
请下一个问题。
P0821:10:46
Operator
Thank you. Your next question comes from Yuan Liao with CITIC Securities. Please go ahead.
谢谢。下一个问题来自中信证券的 Yuan Liao。请提问。
P0831:10:54
Yuan LiaoAnalyst, CITIC Securities
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P0841:11:47
Yuan LiaoAnalyst, CITIC Securities已校正
Thanks for the opportunity to ask a question and congratulations on the strong quarterly results and especially the progress made in the AI sector. I have a follow-up question on the MaaS business. As Eddie mentioned earlier, ARR as of August has exceeded CNY 16 billion. Last quarter, I believe you stated that the target for year-end is to surpass CNY 30 billion in MaaS ARR. I am wondering, given the progress to date, do you anticipate making any adjustments to that year-end goal? Additionally, within the MaaS business, what are the respective shares of our own proprietary models versus third-party models? As model-related competition intensifies and more open source models emerge, how will these factors possibly affect gross margin and profitability in the MaaS business?
感谢提问的机会,祝贺本季度业绩强劲,尤其是在 AI 领域取得的进展。我有一个关于 MaaS 业务的追问。正如 Eddie 刚才提到的,截至 8 月 ARR 已超过 160 亿元人民币。我记得上个季度您说年底目标是 MaaS ARR 超过 300 亿元人民币。我想知道,根据目前的进展,是否会调整这个年底目标?另外,在 MaaS 业务中,自研模型与第三方模型各占多少?随着模型竞争加剧、开源模型增多,这些因素可能会如何影响 MaaS 业务的毛利率和盈利能力?
P0851:12:54
Eddie WuCEO
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P0861:13:23
Eddie Wu(经同传)CEO已校正
Thank you for the question. Yes, indeed. Growth in Bailian's MaaS business is very rapid. As of August, we reached CNY 16 billion or surpassed CNY 16 billion in ARR. Given the current growth momentum as well as the pipeline of new models slated for launch, we remain confident that we will achieve our year-end target of CNY 30 billion ARR by the end of the year.
谢谢这个问题。是的,百炼的 MaaS 业务增长非常快。截至 8 月,ARR 达到或超过了 160 亿元人民币。鉴于目前的增长势头以及计划推出的新模型,我们仍有信心在年底前实现 ARR 300 亿元人民币的年底目标。
P0871:14:03
Eddie WuCEO
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P0881:15:40
Eddie Wu(经同传)CEO已校正
On our MaaS platform, our own proprietary models still account for the majority of the revenue. But having said that, revenue from third-party models is also not small. Having said that, perhaps let me talk a little bit about how we see different model capabilities. A lot of customers tend to need to use or want to use multiple different models in their own AI applications because those different models they can draw on have different characteristics or different capabilities. So having more open source models on platforms like ours, like Bailian, to provide inferencing is a good thing for us and for Bailian. When it comes to gross margin, the level of gross margin that we can achieve on a platform like Bailian from hosting our own proprietary models versus third-party models is actually very similar. It is highly comparable.
在我们的 MaaS 平台上,自研模型仍贡献了大部分收入。但话说回来,第三方模型的收入也不小。我想顺便谈谈我们如何看待不同模型的能力。很多客户在自己的 AI 应用中需要或希望使用多个不同的模型,因为可以调用的不同模型各有特点或能力。所以,在我们这样的平台、在百炼上有更多开源模型提供推理,对我们和百炼是好事。就毛利率而言,在百炼这样的平台上托管自研模型与第三方模型所能实现的毛利率水平实际上非常接近,高度可比。
P0891:16:56
Eddie Wu(经同传)CEO已校正
We are really developing those proprietary models on the one hand in order to keep creating higher levels of model intelligence and also as part of our ultimate drive to achieve AGI. But simply from the perspective of the MaaS business, the level of gross margin from those two kinds of models is actually very comparable. But overall, having a prosperous and flourishing open ecosystem with many of these open source models on it is highly favorable for a cloud provider like Alibaba Cloud.
一方面,我们开发自研模型是为了不断创造更高水平的模型智能,也是我们实现 AGI 这一终极目标的一部分。但单纯从 MaaS 业务的角度看,这两类模型的毛利率水平实际上非常接近。总体而言,拥有一个有大量开源模型、繁荣兴旺的开放生态,对阿里云这样的云厂商非常有利。
P0901:17:43
Lydia LiuHead of Investor Relations
Let us take the last question.
我们来回答最后一个问题。
P0911:17:47
Operator
Thank you. Your final question comes from Alex Yao with JPMorgan. Please go ahead.
谢谢。最后一个问题来自摩根大通的 Alex Yao。请提问。
P0921:17:55
Alex YaoAnalyst, JPMorgan
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P0931:19:27
Alex YaoAnalyst, JPMorgan已校正
Thank you for the opportunity to ask the final question. I would like to come back to Eddie's earlier remarks. He spoke at length about how Alibaba Group is developing a full stack AI ecosystem. My question really is in which layer of that full stack ecosystem do you think value will accrete and monetization will be concentrated? We saw just after it had been released for three months that you open sourced the weight of your flagship model Qwen 3.8 Max. At the same time, your proprietary chips are also proving successful, now serving over 600 external customers. I am wondering if this means that the future value will accrete mainly in the compute layer or perhaps in the orchestration layer and not necessarily in the model layer? Or do you think that value will accrete to different layers in different stages of development of the industry?
感谢给我机会问最后一个问题。我想回到 Eddie 前面的发言。他详细谈到阿里巴巴集团正在构建全栈 AI 生态。我的问题是,您认为在这个全栈生态中,价值会沉淀在哪一层、变现会集中在哪一层?我们看到旗舰模型 Qwen 3.8 Max 发布仅 3 个月后你们就开源了其权重。同时,你们的自研芯片也很成功,目前服务超过 600 家外部客户。我想知道,这是否意味着未来价值主要会沉淀在算力层,或者编排层,而不一定在模型层?还是说,在行业发展的不同阶段,价值会沉淀在不同的层次?
P0941:20:40
Alex YaoAnalyst, JPMorgan已校正
In the long term, if you think that value and monetization will largely be concentrated in the hardware and compute layers, then how should we think about competition going forward given that it will be a government-led process for allocating a lot of that hardware and compute capacity?
长期而言,如果您认为价值和变现将主要集中在硬件和算力层,而大量硬件和算力的分配将是一个由政府主导的过程,那么我们该如何看待未来的竞争?
P0951:21:09
Eddie WuCEO
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P0961:22:28
Eddie Wu(经同传)CEO已校正
Thanks. That is a very professional question and really is a matter of long-term judgment. I think it is inherently associated with a high level of uncertainty. But what I can say is that we are investing in the full stack, and what that means is that whichever layer represents the greatest value, and no matter how that may shift across layers in different periods of time, all of those layers are part of our ecosystem. I guess I can share with you my own short term view. Namely, in the short term perspective, I think that most of the value will be in chips and in AI cloud infrastructure. It is a pattern that we can see not just in China, but globally across a lot of different companies.
谢谢。这是一个非常专业的问题,确实属于长期判断,我认为它本身就伴随着很高的不确定性。但我可以说的是,我们在全栈投入,这意味着无论哪一层代表最大价值,也无论价值在不同时期如何在各层之间迁移,所有这些层都是我们生态的一部分。我可以分享一下我自己的短期看法:从短期看,我认为大部分价值会在芯片和 AI 云基础设施。这一规律不仅在中国,在全球许多公司身上都能看到。
P0971:23:22
Eddie Wu(经同传)CEO已校正
When a technology is in its early stages, and especially when there is a shortage of supply, lots of the value tends to be concentrated in the infrastructure and in the core hardware. In this case, chips and storage. In Alibaba Group's case, we have integrated our compute power, our cloud infrastructure, and our AI inference into one core business segment.
当一项技术处于早期阶段,尤其是供给短缺时,大量价值往往集中在基础设施和核心硬件上,在这里就是芯片和存储。就阿里巴巴集团而言,我们已将算力、云基础设施和 AI 推理整合为一个核心业务分部。
P0981:23:56
Eddie WuCEO
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P0991:25:42
Eddie Wu(经同传)CEO已校正
Let me turn next to where the ultimate commercial value will be realized from these AI models. It's a question around which there's a lot of debate within the industry, and indeed, there are different views even inside our own company. Here I'm just sharing my own personal opinion. In my personal view, I think that the current monetization model for large language models through APIs is just a short-term approach, a short-term transitional approach, and is certainly not the ultimate business model. Our company has invested a tremendous amount of compute across our entire platform, but the objective is not simply to be able to generate that kind of short-term API revenue.
接下来谈谈这些 AI 模型最终的商业价值将在哪里实现。这个问题在业内争论很多,实际上即使在我们公司内部也有不同观点。这里我只是分享我个人的看法。我个人认为,当前大语言模型通过 API 变现的模式只是短期的做法,是一种短期的过渡性做法,肯定不是最终的商业模式。我们公司在整个平台上投入了大量算力,但目的不仅仅是产生那种短期的 API 收入。
P1001:26:35
Eddie Wu(经同传)CEO已校正
I think when we get to the stage where we've accomplished AGI or we're close to achieving AGI, at that point, the ultimate business model will be delivering actual products, delivering actual results that clients are looking for. It will be conducting the actual R&D that delivers products and that delivers operations. The reason that all these different AI model companies are investing so heavily in engaging in an arms race today is not simply to be able to compete to provide that API-based service. It's because they have their eyes on that ultimate end game where I think that the monetization level will be significantly higher, will be much higher than what you see today selling the service through API calls.
我认为当我们实现或接近实现 AGI 时,最终的商业模式将是交付实际产品、交付客户想要的实际结果,是开展能交付产品和运营的实际研发。如今各家 AI 模型公司大举投入、展开军备竞赛,并不只是为了竞争提供基于 API 的服务,而是因为他们着眼于那个终局——我认为到那时的变现水平将显著高于、远高于今天通过 API 调用销售服务所看到的水平。
P1011:27:29
Eddie WuCEO
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P1021:30:43
Eddie Wu(经同传)CEO已校正
In terms of hardware, I'd like to add a few thoughts regarding our T-Head proprietary chips. I know it's a topic about which we haven't communicated a lot with investors in the past, but the last generation of T-Head chips we've already manufactured over 500,000 of them and shipped. The latest generation in August has already been deployed on Alibaba Cloud's AI cloud as super nodes. I think we're one of the only companies that's able to deploy such proprietary chips, domestic chips, at scale. One thing that's really unique about our T-Head chips, domestically manufactured chips, is that they are designed with GPU architecture as their core technical foundation, and they can very well support both training and inference workloads. There are now already several hundreds of companies that are leveraging these chips via Alibaba Cloud for both inference as well as for model training.
硬件方面,我想补充几点关于平头哥自研芯片的想法。我知道过去我们就这个话题与投资者沟通得不多,但上一代平头哥芯片我们已经生产并出货超过 500,000 颗。最新一代芯片 8 月已以超节点的形式部署在阿里云的 AI 云上。我认为我们是极少数能够规模化部署此类自研国产芯片的公司之一。平头哥国产芯片真正独特的一点是,它们以 GPU 架构为核心技术基础设计,能很好地同时支持训练和推理负载。目前已有数百家公司通过阿里云使用这些芯片进行推理和模型训练。
P1031:32:28
Eddie Wu(经同传)CEO已校正
These span companies across Embodied AI, autonomous driving, as well as large model companies. In terms of our generation 2 of chips, we are going to start developing them in the second half of this year. We expect them to boast exceptionally high compute power as well as extremely robust interconnection bandwidth, making them fully capable of serving as a direct replacement for existing chips. I think we're in a really unique position in the chip sector, especially when it comes to large-scale model training. I don't think that there's any government-led compute supply allocation scheme that could produce chips with such truly strong competitiveness. I think that T-Head's future is highly certain as a very key and core component of Alibaba Cloud, and we remain highly confident in our core competitive strengths in this area.
这些公司涵盖具身智能、自动驾驶以及大模型公司。至于第 2 代芯片,我们将在今年下半年开始研发。我们预计它们将具备极高的算力和极强的互联带宽,完全能够直接替代现有芯片。我认为我们在芯片领域处于非常独特的位置,尤其是在大规模模型训练方面。我不认为任何政府主导的算力供给分配方案能够产出如此有竞争力的芯片。我认为平头哥作为阿里云非常关键的核心组成部分,其未来确定性很高,我们对自己在这一领域的核心竞争优势仍然充满信心。
P1041:33:49
Eddie Wu(经同传)CEO已校正
I've interacted with a lot of different engineers across China, and I can tell you that these chips have a very broad audience with engineers across a wide range of different engineering domains. To sum up, I think that our T-Head chips are definitely the best among domestic Chinese chips for supporting both training and inference across a wide range of different industries. We really are number one in the industry.
我接触过中国各地很多不同的工程师,可以告诉大家,这些芯片在各个工程领域的工程师中都有非常广泛的受众。总之,我认为在支持各行各业训练和推理方面,我们的平头哥芯片绝对是国产芯片中最好的。我们确实是行业第一。
P1051:35:13
Eddie Wu(经同传)CEO已校正
Then I think in terms of future production capacity and deployment, we can confidently claim to be at least one of the top two. But in terms of our ability to actually reach customers with AI chips, Alibaba Cloud is the largest player by market share in China's cloud and AI market. I think we have a very strong edge when it comes to channel distribution. From this perspective, I am highly confident in the long-term commercial value of T-Head chips.
其次,就未来的产能和部署而言,我认为我们可以自信地说至少是前两名之一。而在把 AI 芯片真正触达客户的能力上,阿里云是中国云与 AI 市场份额最大的厂商。我认为我们在渠道分发上有很强的优势。从这个角度,我对平头哥芯片的长期商业价值非常有信心。
P1061:35:51
Lydia LiuHead of Investor Relations
Thank you very much. We appreciate your support, and we look forward to updating you on our progress next quarter. Thank you.
非常感谢。感谢各位的支持,期待下个季度向大家更新进展。谢谢。
P1071:36:01
Operator
Thank you. That does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.
谢谢。今天的会议到此结束,感谢参加,现在可以挂断了。