FY2026Q2 电话会逐字稿
发言人
点击某位发言人,只突出显示其发言;再次点击恢复| 姓名 | 职位 | 机构 | 段落 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alastair Borthwick | EVP and CFO | Bank of America | 51 |
| Brian Moynihan | Chairman and CEO | Bank of America | 23 |
| Operator | 12 | ||
| Lee McEntire | Head of Investor Relations | Bank of America | 1 |
| Erika Najarian | Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst of Large-Cap Banks and Consumer Finance | UBS | 6 |
| Mike Mayo | Managing Director and Head of US Large-Cap Bank Research | Wells Fargo | 5 |
| Matt O'Connor | Managing Director | Deutsche Bank | 5 |
| Manan Gosalia | Head of US Large and Midcap Banks Research | Morgan Stanley | 4 |
| Chris McGratty | Managing Director | KBW | 3 |
| Ken Usdin | Senior Research Analyst of Large-Cap Banks | Autonomous Research | 3 |
| Ben Gerlinger | Director of Equity Research for US Large Cap and Regional Banks | Citi | 3 |
| Gerard Cassidy | Managing Director and Head of US Bank Equity Strategy and Large-Cap Bank Analyst | RBC | 3 |
● 公司管理层 / 主持人 ● 外部分析师
P00100:00
Operator
It is now my pleasure to turn the meeting over to Lee McEntire, Bank of America. Please go ahead.
现在我很高兴将会议交给美国银行的 Lee McEntire。请开始。
P00200:07
Lee McEntireHead of Investor Relations
Thank you. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us to talk through our second quarter results in what is a busy bank earnings day. As always, the earnings release and presentation are posted on the investor relations section of bankofamerica.com, and we'll reference those materials during the call. Before we begin, a quick reminder that during the call, we may make forward-looking statements and refer to non-GAAP financial measures. These measures reflect management's current views and are subject to risks and uncertainties, which are outlined, along with the relevant GAAP reconciliations in our earnings materials and our SEC filings on our website. With that, I'll turn the call over to Brian Moynihan, our CEO.
谢谢。大家早上好,感谢大家在这个繁忙的银行财报日参加我们的电话会,共同讨论我们的第二季度业绩。一如既往,财报新闻稿和演示文稿已发布在 bankofamerica.com 的投资者关系栏目中,我们在电话会期间将参考这些材料。在开始之前,快速提醒一下,在本次电话会中,我们可能会作出前瞻性陈述并提及非公认会计准则(non-GAAP)财务指标。这些指标反映了管理层当前的看法,受风险和不确定性影响,相关内容以及相应的 GAAP 调节表已在我们的财报材料和网站上的 SEC 备案文件中列出。下面,我将把电话会交给我们的首席执行官 Brian Moynihan。
P00300:54
Brian MoynihanChairman and CEO
Good morning, and thank you for joining us. Once again, our team delivered strong second quarter results, extending our momentum of the past several quarters. Our revenue grew 15% year-over-year to $31.6 billion. Our net income was $9.1 billion, up 27% from last year. Our EPS increased 34% to $1.21 a share. Our results show organic growth, operating leverage, and efficiency ratio improvement in every business segment. Along the bottom of slide two, you can see the progress against several of our key financial metrics for the firm. For the quarter, we delivered 6.6% operating leverage, and our efficiency ratio improved to 59%. We generated return on tangible common equity of 17%. In short, organic growth was broad-based and coupled with operating leverage, which translated into stronger returns on both equity and assets. Slide three shows the contributions and growth of each business segment.
早上好,感谢大家参加我们的电话会。我们的团队再次交出了强劲的第二季度业绩,延续了过去几个季度的良好势头。我们的营收同比增长 15%,达到 316 亿美元。净利润为 91 亿美元,较去年同期增长 27%。每股收益(EPS)增长 34%,达到每股 1.21 美元。我们的业绩在每个业务分部都展现出内生增长、经营杠杆和效率比率的改善。在第 2 页幻灯片底部,大家可以看到我们在公司多项关键财务指标上取得的进展。本季度,我们实现了 6.6% 的经营杠杆,效率比率改善至 59%。我们实现了 17% 的有形普通股股本回报率(ROTCE)。简而言之,内生增长基础广泛,加上经营杠杆的作用,转化为更高的股本回报率和资产回报率。第 3 页幻灯片展示了各个业务分部的贡献和增长情况。
P00401:57
Every business segment contributed to our year-over-year growth. Average deposits and loan balances continued to grow, supported by healthy client engagement. Revenue and net income increased in every business segment. Each segment generated operating leverage. Each segment improved its efficiency ratio. Each segment demonstrated the benefits of its scale. Together, those results drive stronger returns across the company. Let me touch on a few earnings highlights from slide four, starting with revenue. Revenue growth was broad-based, led by NII, investment banking, wealth management fees, and sales and trading revenue. First, net interest income. It continued to perform well. On an FTE basis, NII was approximately $16.2 billion, up 9% over last year's second quarter. This is driven by the strength of our core lending and deposit-gathering franchises. It also includes our lending in our Global Markets business and the impact thereof.
每个业务分部都为我们的同比增长作出了贡献。在健康的客户参与度支持下,平均存款和贷款余额继续增长。每个业务分部的营收和净利润均实现增长。每个分部都产生了经营杠杆。每个分部都改善了效率比率。每个分部都展现出规模优势。这些成果共同推动整个公司实现更强劲的回报。让我简要介绍一下第 4 页幻灯片中的几个业绩亮点,首先从营收开始。营收增长基础广泛,由净利息收入(NII)、投资银行、财富管理费用以及销售和交易营收领涨。首先是净利息收入(NII)。它继续表现良好。按完全应税等值(FTE)计算,净利息收入(NII)约为 162 亿美元,较去年第二季度增长 9%。这得益于我们核心贷款和吸储业务体系的实力,其中也包括我们在全球市场业务中的贷款及其带来的影响。
P00502:57
We also have added the benefit of ongoing repricing with lower-yielding assets and a repayment of higher-cost funding. Second, our fee-based businesses delivered exceptional results, translating into 22% non-interest income growth. Wealth management, investment banking, and markets all benefit from healthy client activity in favorable capital markets conditions. Merrill and the Private Bank advisors drove the 18% growth in investment brokerage fees. Investment banking fees increased 50% year-over-year to more than $2.1 billion. While sales and trading generated $7.2 billion in revenue, up 33%. Third, we manage cost while we continue to invest in a franchise, our brand, our people, our technology, and our AI-enabled productivity. Asset quality also remains stable and consistent with the strong underwriting discipline that has characterized our company for many years. Finally, capital generation and capital returns to investors remain strong.
我们还受益于低收益率资产的持续重新定价以及高成本融资的偿还。第二,我们的收费型业务交出了优异的成绩,转化为 22% 的非利息收入增长。在有利的资本市场环境下,财富管理、投资银行和市场业务均受益于健康的客户活动。Merrill 和私人银行(Private Bank)顾问推动投资经纪费用增长 18%。投资银行费用同比增长 50%,超过 21 亿美元。与此同时,销售和交易业务创造了 72 亿美元的营收,增长 33%。第三,我们在继续投资于业务体系、品牌、人才、技术以及 AI 赋能的生产力的同时,严格管控成本。资产质量也保持稳定,与我们公司多年来一贯严格审慎的承销纪律相一致。最后,资本创造能力和对投资者的资本回报依然强劲。
P00603:57
We've returned $8 billion to you through dividends and share repurchases this quarter. We ended the quarter with common equity Tier 1 capital of nearly $202 billion and a common equity Tier 1 ratio of 11.2%. The economic backdrop remains very constructive, as slide five illustrates. Last week, our research team raised its 2026 U.S. GDP growth forecast to 2.2%. They also have global growth expected to remain steady at 3.2% in 2026 and grow to 3.5% in 2027. As noted on the slide, consumer spending has recently expanded and continued to outperform our expectations. While the slide reflects 5% growth in year-over-year spending for the first half, the spending picked up during the second quarter and now is running at 6% plus year-over-year comparison.
本季度我们通过股息和股票回购向大家返还了 80 亿美元。季度末我们的普通股一级资本(CET1)接近 2,020 亿美元,普通股一级资本充足率(CET1)为 11.2%。正如第 5 页幻灯片所示,宏观经济背景依然非常有利。上周,我们的研究团队将 2026 年美国 GDP 增长预测上调至 2.2%。他们还预计 2026 年全球经济增长将稳定在 3.2%,并在 2027 年增长至 3.5%。正如幻灯片所指出的,消费者支出近期有所扩大,并继续超出我们的预期。虽然幻灯片反映出上半年的支出同比增长 5%,但支出在第二季度有所加速,目前同比增速已达到 6% 以上。
被引用:↩ FY2026Q2 季度复盘 · 结论摘要↩ FY2026Q2 季度复盘 · 财务拆解 · 资本与股东回报↩ FY2026Q2 季度复盘 · 当季异动 · 4. 年化信用成本降至 0.45%(同比 -11 个基点),净核销率降至 0.47%(同比 -7 个基点)|改善↩ FY2026Q2 季度复盘 · 管理层口径变化 ×2↩ FY2026Q3 季度复盘 · 管理层口径变化↩ FY2026Q2 电话会解析 · 管理层发言解析 · Brian Moynihan|董事长兼首席执行官↩ 指引与语气 · 指引演变 · 资本与股东回报(`capital_priorities` / `capital_rules` / `tce_ratio`)
P00704:52
Overall, the U.S. economy has proved more durable than expected, supported by the strong consumer, ongoing AI-driven investments across the board, and easing energy costs, though inflation and tighter monetary policy remain key risks. Before I turn it over to Alastair, I want to bring your attention to a couple slides. First, we have our digital slides in the appendix. In addition, we added a slide on AI. It's slide 20, which shows how our over 200,000 teammates are actively using AI-enabled capabilities across our company. These range from productivity tools to more advanced agentic workflows and coding support. Our associates are generating more than 400,000 prompts a day, and as of last week, we had over 300 AI use cases approved, all of which have good economics, of which 114 are live generative AI use cases.
总体而言,在强劲的消费者表现、各领域持续的 AI 驱动投资以及能源成本缓解的支持下,美国经济表现出了比预期更强的韧性,尽管通胀和偏紧的货币政策仍是主要风险。在交给 Alastair 之前,我想提请大家关注几张幻灯片。首先,我们在附录中放了数字化相关的幻灯片。此外,我们还新增了一张关于 AI 的幻灯片,即第 20 页幻灯片,展示了我们超过 200,000 名员工如何在全公司范围内积极使用 AI 赋能的功能。这些功能涵盖从生产力工具到更高级的智能体工作流和编程支持。我们的员工每天生成超过 400,000 条提示词(prompts),截至上周,我们已批准超过 300 个 AI 用例,所有这些用例都具有良好的经济效益,其中 114 个是已上线的生成式 AI 用例。
P00805:45
34 of those cases are fully implemented, and we see new capabilities coming on every week. These tools are designed to help our customer relationship managers prepare more thoroughly for the client meetings. Our bankers automate the research and presentation materials. Our developers code more efficiently, and all our teammates improve productivity, consistency, and client service while creating significant opportunities ahead of us. Now I'm going to turn it over to Alastair. Alastair?
其中 34 个用例已全面落地实施,而且我们每周都能看到新功能的上线。这些工具旨在帮助我们的客户关系经理为客户会议做更充分的准备,帮助我们的银行家将研究和演示材料自动化,帮助我们的开发人员更高效地编写代码,并帮助我们所有员工提高生产力、一致性和客户服务水平,同时在未来为我们创造重大机遇。现在我将把时间交给 Alastair。Alastair?
P00906:13
Alastair BorthwickEVP and CFO
Thanks, Brian. I'm going to pick up on slide six and start with the balance sheet, where you can see it remained a source of strength, and we continued to support client activity across the franchise. Our ending assets were steady at $3.5 trillion, steady compared to the first quarter, and primarily reflecting lower securities balances replaced by loan growth and Global Markets activity. We maintained strong liquidity and funding while we optimized our balance sheet, and we supported all that with diversified funding and healthy client-driven growth. When you look at regulatory capital, we remain in a strong position with our CET1 ratio stable at 11.2%, and that remains well ahead of our 10% minimum ratio. Tier 1 common equity grew to nearly $202 billion, while our RWA increased to $1.8 trillion, driven by loan growth and capital markets activity. Supplementary leverage remains strong and well above our minimums.
谢谢,Brian。我将从第 6 页幻灯片接手,首先介绍资产负债表,大家可以看到它依然是我们的实力源泉,我们继续支持整个业务体系的客户活动。我们的期末资产稳定在 3.5 万亿美元,与第 1 季度相比保持平稳,主要反映了证券余额的下降被贷款增长和全球市场活动所替代。我们在优化资产负债表的同时保持了充足的流动性和融资能力,并通过多元化的融资和健康的客户驱动型增长为这一切提供支持。从监管资本来看,我们依然处于强劲水平,普通股一级资本充足率(CET1)稳定在 11.2%,远高于我们 10% 的最低比率要求。一级普通股资本(Tier 1)增长至接近 2,020 亿美元,而我们的风险加权资产(RWA)受贷款增长和资本市场活动推动增加至 1.8 万亿美元。补充杠杆率保持强劲,远高于我们的最低要求。
P01007:17
When we turn to slide seven, you can see deposits remain a key competitive advantage and a source of strength for our company. Average deposits were $2.02 trillion, up $49 billion or 2.5% from a year ago, and importantly, included non-interest-bearing growth of $19 billion, up 4%. This marks our 12th consecutive quarter of average deposit growth. Growth was primarily driven by Global Banking, where deposits increased 8% year-over-year, reflecting continued client engagement and operating account growth. The second quarter saw muted sequential growth in average deposits because it was impacted by typical seasonal tax-related outflows. Otherwise, underlying client activity remains healthy and on track with our expectations. Importantly, our deposit base remains highly diversified across consumer, wealth, commercial, and corporate clients, providing a stable and attractive funding advantage. Our strong liquidity and funding position means we don't need to change cash rate-sensitive balances.
翻到第 7 页幻灯片,大家可以看到存款依然是我们公司的关键竞争优势和实力源泉。平均存款为 2.02 万亿美元,较一年前增加 490 亿美元或 2.5%,更重要的是,其中包括无息存款增加 190 亿美元,增幅达 4%。这标志着我们的平均存款已连续第 12 个季度实现增长。增长主要由全球银行推动,其存款同比增长 8%,反映出持续的客户参与度和运营账户增长。第 2 季度平均存款环比增长平缓,因为受到了典型的季节性税务相关资金流出的影响。除此之外,底层客户活动依然健康,符合我们的预期。重要的是,我们的存款基础在消费者、财富、商业和企业客户之间保持高度多元化,提供了稳定且具吸引力的融资优势。我们强劲的流动性和融资状况意味着我们不需要去追逐对利率敏感的现金余额。
P01108:30
With the other relationship values like rewards, digital, and security features, it allows us to offer customers attractive rates and grow balances. We continue to see growth in both interest-bearing and non-interest-bearing balances. As shown in the upper right, rate paid was modestly lower this quarter, led by consumer deposits of 48 basis points on $957 billion in balances, so favorable balance moves. Turning to slide eight, loan growth remains strong and broad-based. Average loans and leases increased to $1.2 trillion, up $88 billion or 8% from a year ago. Ending loans were also $1.22 trillion, up $71 billion or 6%, marking the ninth consecutive quarter of both average and ending loan growth. Commercial lending continues to lead growth, with average commercial loans increasing to $733 billion, up $75 billion or 11% from a year ago.
凭借奖励计划、数字化和安全功能等其他关系价值,我们能够为客户提供有吸引力的利率并实现余额增长。我们继续看到有息和无息余额双双增长。如右上角所示,本季度付息率略有下降,主要由消费者存款带动,其 9,570 亿美元余额的付息率为 48 个基点,因此余额结构变化是有利的。翻到第 8 页幻灯片,贷款增长依然强劲且基础广泛。平均贷款和租赁增加至 1.2 万亿美元,较一年前增加 880 亿美元或 8%。期末贷款也达到 1.22 万亿美元,增加 710 亿美元或 6%,标志着平均贷款和期末贷款连续第 9 个季度实现增长。商业贷款继续领跑增长,平均商业贷款增加至 7,330 亿美元,较一年前增加 750 亿美元或 11%。
P01209:36
We've seen growth both domestically as well as internationally, illustrated by the chart at the bottom right of slide eight. Additionally, commercial growth has broadened away from the Global Markets activity that we saw last year. Consumer loans increased 3% year-over-year, led by growth in securities-based lending and credit card balances. Credit card grew 4% year-over-year as we increased marketing and enhanced product offerings. The combination of first and second lien mortgage balances remains relatively stable, reflecting elevated rates, and included the ninth consecutive quarter of average home equity growth. These trends reflect healthy client activity across both commercial and consumer businesses, and they demonstrate the benefits of our diversified lending franchise. Turning to slide nine, net interest income continues to perform well despite a modestly lower short rate environment, which impacted variable rate asset yields.
正如第 8 页幻灯片右下角的图表所示,我们在美国国内和国际市场都看到了增长。此外,商业贷款增长已从去年我们所看到的全球市场相关活动向更广泛的领域拓展。在证券质押贷款和信用卡余额增长的带动下,消费者贷款同比增长 3%。随着我们加大营销力度并升级产品服务,信用卡贷款同比增长 4%。受高利率影响,第一顺位和第二顺位留置权抵押贷款余额合计保持相对稳定,其中包括平均房屋净值贷款连续第 9 个季度实现增长。这些趋势反映出商业和消费者业务均保持健康的客户活动,并彰显了我们多元化贷款业务体系的优势。翻到第 9 页幻灯片,尽管短期利率环境略有走低、对浮动利率资产收益率产生了一定影响,净利息收入(NII)依然表现良好。
P01310:42
NII on an FTE basis was approximately $16.2 billion, an increase $253 million from the first quarter and $1.3 billion or 9% from a year ago. On a year-over-year basis, growth was driven by higher loan and deposit balances, fixed rate asset repricing, and Global Markets-related activity. This was partially offset by the impact of lower average short-term rates. We've seen steady improvement now since the second quarter of 2024, when NII has grown from $13.9 billion to now $16.2 billion. Net interest yield was 2.08%. That's up one basis point from Q1 and 14 basis points from a year ago, reflecting favorable asset and liability mix and loan and deposit growth, partly offset by Global Markets balance sheet growth.
按完全应税等值(FTE)计算,净利息收入(NII)约为 162 亿美元,较第 1 季度增加 2.53 亿美元,较一年前增加 13 亿美元或 9%。从同比来看,增长受更高的贷款和存款余额、固定利率资产重新定价以及全球市场相关活动推动。这在一定程度上被较低的平均短期利率的影响所抵消。自 2024 年第 2 季度以来,我们看到了稳步改善,净利息收入(NII)已从当时的 139 亿美元增长至目前的 162 亿美元。净利息收益率为 2.08%,较 Q1 上升 1 个基点,较一年前上升 14 个基点,反映出有利的资产负债结构以及贷款和存款增长,部分被全球市场资产负债表扩张所抵消。
P01411:44
Bank of America's banking book remains asset sensitive, on a dynamic deposit basis, a 100 basis points parallel shift above the forward curve is expected to increase NII by $1 billion over the next 12-month period. Looking ahead on NII expectations, in January, we told you to expect 5%-7% full year NII growth. In April, we raised that full year range to be 6%-8%. We now expect full year 2026 NII growth to be at the upper end of that 6%-8% range, supported by anticipated loan and deposit growth, fixed rate asset repricing, and balance sheet optimization. This assumes modest loan and deposit growth in the second half of the year, and it's based on the current forward curve, which has one 25 basis points rate hike in September.
美国银行的银行账簿保持资产敏感型特征,按动态存款口径计算,在远期曲线基础上平行上移 100 个基点,预计将在未来 12 个月内使净利息收入(NII)增加 10 亿美元。展望净利息收入(NII)预期,今年 1 月我们曾告诉大家预计全年净利息收入(NII)增长 5%-7%。4 月我们将全年区间上调至 6%-8%。现在,在预期的贷款和存款增长、固定利率资产重新定价以及资产负债表优化的支持下,我们预计 2026 年全年净利息收入(NII)增长将处于该 6%-8% 区间的上限。这一预期假设下半年贷款和存款温和增长,并基于当前的远期曲线,即包含 9 月份一次 25 个基点的加息。
被引用:↩ FY2026Q2 季度复盘 · 结论摘要↩ FY2026Q2 季度复盘 · 业绩与指引 ×2↩ FY2026Q2 季度复盘 · 当季异动 · 3. 净利息收入同比 +9.05% 至 160.0 亿美元,付息存款成本同比下降 38 个基点|改善↩ FY2026Q2 季度复盘 · 电话会要点 · 指引与展望↩ FY2026Q2 季度复盘 · 电话会要点 · 风险与逆风↩ FY2026Q2 季度复盘 · 管理层口径变化 ×2↩ FY2026Q3 季度复盘 · 管理层口径变化 ×2↩ FY2026Q2 电话会解析 · 核心判断↩ FY2026Q2 电话会解析 · 管理层发言解析 · Alastair Borthwick|首席财务官↩ 指引与语气 · 指引演变 · 净利息收入(`nii_growth_full_year` / `nii_growth_next_year`)↩ 指引与语气 · 指引演变 · 利率假设与利率敏感性(`rate_path_assumption` / `nii_rate_sensitivity`) ×2
P01512:43
Overall, NII remains a significant contributor to earnings growth and reflects the core franchise advantages of our scale and diversified balance sheet. Non-interest expense on slide 10 was approximately $18.6 billion, up roughly $100 million from the first quarter and $1.4 billion from the second quarter of 2025, reflecting continued investment in technology, sales teams, financial centers, and brand marketing. It also includes higher activity-related costs that come from trading in our Global Markets business, particularly in our overseas markets. With those investments, we generated 660 basis points of operating leverage and improved our efficiency ratio to 59%, highlighting the performance of the franchise and the return on our investments. AI-enabled tools are now more embedded in workflows across operations, risk, finance, technology, and our client-facing teams. That's helped reduce manual work, improve speed, and enhance consistency for clients and teammates.
总体而言,净利息收入(NII)依然是盈利增长的重要贡献来源,体现了我们规模优势和多元化资产负债表的核心业务体系优势。第 10 页幻灯片上的非利息支出约为 186 亿美元,较第 1 季度增加约 1 亿美元,较 2025 年第 2 季度增加 14 亿美元,反映了对技术、销售团队、金融中心和品牌营销的持续投资。其中还包括来自全球市场业务(尤其是海外市场)交易带来的较高活动相关成本。通过这些投资,我们产生了 660 个基点的经营杠杆,并将效率比率改善至 59%,凸显了业务体系的良好表现以及我们的投资回报。AI 赋能的工具现在已更深入地嵌入到运营、风险、财务、技术和客户前台团队的工作流中。这有助于减少人工操作、提升速度,并为客户和员工提高一致性。
P01613:59
On our first quarter earnings call in April, we told you we expected full-year operating leverage of more than 200 basis points. Operating leverage for the first half of 2026 has now exceeded 450 basis points. With that first half performance and our continued expectations for a strong second half, we now expect full-year operating leverage to be in the range of 300-400 basis points. Turning to slides 11 and 12, you can see credit quality remains stable and consistent with the strong underwriting discipline that's characterized our portfolio for many years. Provision expense was approximately $1.4 billion. Net charge-offs were also $1.4 billion, and both were largely unchanged from Q1. Consumer card charge-offs and delinquencies improved both year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter. Commercial credit also remained solid, with CRE improvement offset by some isolated corporate and commercial lending losses.
在 4 月份的第 1 季度财报电话会上,我们曾表示预计全年经营杠杆将超过 200 个基点。2026 年上半年的经营杠杆现已超过 450 个基点。凭借上半年的表现以及我们对下半年继续保持强劲的预期,我们现在预计全年经营杠杆将在 300-400 个基点的区间内。翻到第 11 和第 12 页幻灯片,大家可以看到信贷质量保持稳定,与我们投资组合多年来一贯严格审慎的承销纪律相一致。拨备费用约为 14 亿美元。净核销(NCO)也为 14 亿美元,两者与 Q1 相比均基本持平。消费者信用卡核销和逾期率在同比和环比上均有所改善。商业信贷也保持稳健,商业房地产(CRE)的改善被部分孤立的企业和商业贷款损失所抵消。
被引用:↩ FY2026Q2 季度复盘 · 结论摘要↩ FY2026Q2 季度复盘 · 业绩与指引 ×3↩ FY2026Q2 季度复盘 · 当季异动 · 4. 年化信用成本降至 0.45%(同比 -11 个基点),净核销率降至 0.47%(同比 -7 个基点)|改善↩ FY2026Q2 季度复盘 · 电话会要点 · 指引与展望↩ FY2026Q2 季度复盘 · 管理层口径变化↩ FY2026Q2 季度复盘 · 对投资逻辑的影响↩ FY2026Q3 季度复盘 · 管理层口径变化↩ FY2026Q2 电话会解析 · 核心判断↩ 指引与语气 · 指引演变 · 经营杠杆(`operating_leverage_full_year` / `operating_leverage_next_quarter` / `operating_leverage_medium_term`)
P01715:07
Reservable criticized commercial exposures declined by approximately $2.3 billion from Q1 to roughly $22 billion, driven primarily by CRE improvement. Non-performing loans remained stable at approximately $5.8 billion, and we recorded a modest reserve release. Overall, our portfolio remains well-positioned, supported by strong client fundamentals and disciplined risk management. Turning to slide 13, now we get into the business segments. Consumer Banking delivered another strong quarter, combining solid financial performance with continued investment in growth, innovation, and client engagement. Over the past few months, we refreshed our rewards program, that's generating more than 2 million enrollments since the late May relaunch. We also launched one of our largest consumer marketing campaigns around the FIFA World Cup. We expanded our financial center network in new and growth markets, introduced new card products, and deployed new AI-enabled tools designed to enhance both the client and teammate experience.
需计提准备金的关注类商业风险敞口较 Q1 下降约 23 亿美元,至约 220 亿美元,主要受商业房地产(CRE)改善推动。不良贷款(NPL)保持稳定,约为 58 亿美元,并且我们录得小幅准备金释放。总体而言,在强劲的客户基本面和审慎的风险管理支持下,我们的信贷组合依然处于良好状态。翻到第 13 页幻灯片,现在我们进入各个业务分部。消费者银行再次交出了强劲的季度业绩,将稳健的财务表现与对增长、创新和客户参与度的持续投资结合在一起。在过去几个月里,我们焕新了奖励计划,自 5 月下旬重新推出以来已吸引超过 200 万名用户注册。我们还围绕 FIFA 世界杯启动了规模最大的消费者营销活动之一。我们在新兴和增长型市场扩展了金融中心网络,推出了新的银行卡产品,并部署了旨在提升客户和员工体验的新型 AI 赋能工具。
P01816:22
All of these investments help to strengthen the franchise and drive organic growth. Net income increased 10% year-over-year to approximately $3.3 billion, while revenue rose 5% to $11.3 billion. Through strong expense discipline, we generated our fifth consecutive quarter of positive operating leverage, maintained a strong 51% efficiency ratio, and delivered a 29% return on allocated capital. With regard to client activity, our deposit franchise remains a key competitive advantage. Average deposits rose to $957 billion, our fifth consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth. Client engagement was also strong with record checking account balances, 162,000 net new checking accounts, and card spending up 9% year-over-year to $266 billion. We continued to deepen relationships across the enterprise, consumer investment assets reached a record $640 billion, up 18% year-over-year, supported by strong market levels and net client flows.
所有这些投资都有助于强化业务体系并推动内生增长。净利润同比增长 10% 至约 33 亿美元,而营收增长 5% 至 113 亿美元。通过严格的费用控制,我们连续第 5 个季度实现正经营杠杆,保持了 51% 的优异效率比率,并实现了 29% 的分配资本回报率。在客户活动方面,我们的存款业务体系依然是关键的竞争优势。平均存款上升至 9,570 亿美元,连续第 5 个季度实现同比增长。客户参与度同样强劲,支票账户余额创下历史新高,净新增支票账户达 162,000 个,银行卡支出同比增长 9% 至 2,660 亿美元。我们继续在全公司范围内深化客户关系,受强劲的市场水平和客户资金净流入支持,消费者投资资产达到创纪录的 6,400 亿美元,同比增长 18%。
P01917:31
Digital engagement remains a clear differentiator, with roughly 50 million active digital users, more than 24 million active Erica users, and digital sales representing 70% of total sales. New AI capabilities have improved service, increased efficiency, and allowed teammates to focus on higher-value client interactions. Finally, consumers remain resilient as average deposit investment balances and spending all showed linked quarter increases. Additionally, consumer credit quality remains strong and in line with expectations, reflecting the strength of our customer base and our disciplined approach to risk management. Overall, Consumer Banking continues to demonstrate the power of our scale, digital leadership, and relationship-based model, positioning the business for sustainable and attractive long-term growth. Turning to slide 14, GWIM delivered another outstanding quarter, highlighted by record revenue and pre-tax income, expanded profit margins, and continued client growth. Clients continue to consolidate more of their financial lives with Bank of America.
数字化参与度依然是明显的差异化优势,活跃数字用户约为 5,000 万,活跃 Erica 用户超过 2,400 万,数字化销售占总销售额的 70%。新的 AI 功能改善了服务、提高了效率,并使员工能够专注于更高价值的客户互动。最后,消费者依然保持韧性,平均存款、投资余额和支出均实现环比增长。此外,消费者信贷质量保持强劲且符合预期,反映出我们客户群体的实力以及我们审慎的风险管理方法。总体而言,消费者银行继续彰显我们规模、数字化领导地位和关系型模式的威力,使该业务具备可持续且具吸引力的长期增长潜力。翻到第 14 页幻灯片,全球财富与投资管理(GWIM)再次交出优异的季度成绩,亮点包括创纪录的营收和税前利润、扩大的利润率以及持续的客户增长。客户继续将更多的财务生活整合到美国银行。
P02018:45
During the quarter, we added another 6,000 net new affluent households to serve, the continued strong growth in banking relationships and lending balances demonstrates the power of our integrated wealth and banking model. At the same time, both Merrill and the Private Bank continue to attract talented advisors who are drawn to the breadth of our platform and our ability to deliver comprehensive solutions for clients. Franchise continued to benefit from strong advisor productivity, growing digital engagement, and new AI-enabled tools that help advisors prepare for client conversations, identify opportunities, and deliver more personalized advice at scale. Net income for the segment increased 42% year-over-year to $1.4 billion, while revenue grew 16% to a record $6.9 billion, driven by higher asset management fees, strong flows, higher market valuations, and higher NII.
本季度,我们又净新增了 6,000 个富裕家庭客户,银行关系和贷款余额的持续强劲增长彰显了我们综合财富与银行模式的威力。与此同时,Merrill 和私人银行(Private Bank)继续吸引优秀的顾问加入,他们被我们平台的广度以及为客户提供综合解决方案的能力所吸引。该业务体系继续受益于强劲的顾问生产力、不断增长的数字化参与度,以及帮助顾问准备客户对话、识别机会并规模化提供更个性化建议的新型 AI 赋能工具。该分部的净利润同比增长 42% 至 14 亿美元,而营收增长 16% 至创纪录的 69 亿美元,受更高的资产管理费、强劲的资金流入、更高的市场估值和更高的净利息收入(NII)推动。
P02119:48
With good expense discipline, we generated another quarter of positive operating leverage and saw pre-tax margins expand to more than 27%, demonstrating the scalability of this business. Client balances reached a record $4.9 trillion, up 12% from a year ago. Assets under management grew 17% year-over-year to $2.3 trillion, supported by approximately $14 billion of AUM flows this quarter and $78 billion of AUM flows over the past four quarters. Loans grew $13 billion or 5% linked quarter to $277 billion, driven by custom and securities-based lending demand. Overall, GWIM continued to demonstrate the strength of our advice-led, relationship-based model and remains well-positioned for sustainable growth. Moving to our commercial and corporate client-facing businesses in Global Banking on slide 15, where Global Banking delivered strong results in the second quarter, reflecting healthy client activity, near-record investment banking performance, strong treasury service revenue, and continued balance sheet growth.
凭借良好的费用控制,我们再次实现单季正经营杠杆,税前利润率扩大至 27% 以上,展现了该业务的可扩展性。客户余额达到创纪录的 4.9 万亿美元,较一年前增长 12%。受本季度约 140 亿美元的资产管理规模(AUM)资金流入以及过去 4 个季度 780 亿美元的 AUM 资金流入支持,资产管理规模(AUM)同比增长 17% 至 2.3 万亿美元。受定制化贷款和证券质押贷款需求推动,贷款环比增长 130 亿美元或 5%,达到 2,770 亿美元。总体而言,全球财富与投资管理(GWIM)继续展现出我们以顾问为主导、以关系为基础的业务模式的实力,并为可持续增长做好了充分准备。翻到第 15 页幻灯片,来看全球银行中面向商业和企业客户的业务,全球银行在第 2 季度交出了强劲的业绩,反映出健康的客户活动、接近历史纪录的投资银行表现、强劲的资金管理服务营收以及持续的资产负债表增长。
P02221:02
Client engagement remained broad-based with activity across capital markets, strategic transactions, liquidity management, we continued our program of growth investments, including technology modernization, digital infrastructure, and AI-related initiatives. We're also using AI-enabled tools to help bankers accelerate their research, prepare materials, and identify relevant client opportunities more efficiently. Revenue increased 10% year-over-year to $6.2 billion, while net income grew 20% to more than $2 billion. Investment banking was a particular highlight. Total corporate investment banking fees, excluding self-led transactions, increased 50% year-over-year to more than $2.1 billion, reflecting strength across debt underwriting, advisory, and equity underwriting. Average loans increased 7% to $413 billion, while average deposits increased 8% to $652 billion, demonstrating continued franchise growth and client confidence. Credit quality remained solid, returns remained healthy with a 15% return on allocated capital. Turning to slide 16, Global Markets delivered an exceptional quarter.
客户参与度保持广泛基础,业务活动涵盖资本市场、战略交易和流动性管理,我们继续推进增长投资计划,包括技术现代化、数字基础设施和 AI 相关举措。我们还在利用 AI 赋能的工具帮助银行家加快研究速度、准备材料并更高效地识别相关的客户机会。营收同比增长 10% 至 62 亿美元,而净利润增长 20% 至超过 20 亿美元。投资银行业务尤为亮眼。不含自营牵头交易的企业投资银行费用总额同比增长 50%,超过 21 亿美元,反映出债券承销、财务顾问和股票承销的全面强劲表现。平均贷款增长 7% 至 4,130 亿美元,平均存款增长 8% 至 6,520 亿美元,彰显了持续的业务体系增长和客户信心。信贷质量保持稳健,回报率保持健康,分配资本回报率达到 15%。翻到第 16 页幻灯片,全球市场交出了极为出色的季度业绩。
P02322:25
Excluding DVA, net income was $2.7 billion, up 70% from a year ago. Sales and trading revenue, excluding DVA, increased 33% to $7.2 billion. Equities delivered a record $3.6 billion of revenue, up 70%, driven by client financing activity and strong trading performance in derivatives and cash. FICC generated $3.5 billion, its strongest quarter in more than a decade. Growth was broad-based across the franchise. Domestically, our revenue in the U.S. increased 31%, while our international business delivered a 38% improvement, with Asia-Pacific as the standout. This is generally consistent with our Investor Day messaging of continuing our improved performance internationally. Perhaps what stands out most is the consistency of our performance, because we've now delivered 17 consecutive quarters of year-over-year sales and trading revenue growth and 14 consecutive quarters of year-over-year net income growth.
不含债务估值调整(DVA),净利润为 27 亿美元,较一年前增长 70%。不含 DVA 的销售和交易营收增长 33% 至 72 亿美元。股票业务创造了创纪录的 36 亿美元营收,增长 70%,受客户融资活动以及衍生品和现货交易的强劲表现推动。固定收益、外汇及大宗商品(FICC)业务创造了 35 亿美元营收,创下十多年来的最强单季表现。增长在整个业务体系中基础广泛。在国内市场,我们在美国的营收增长了 31%,而国际业务则实现了 38% 的增长,其中亚太地区表现尤为突出。这与我们在投资者日传达的持续提升国际业务表现的信息总体一致。最突出的或许是我们业绩的稳定性,因为我们目前已连续 17 个季度实现销售和交易营收同比增长,并连续 14 个季度实现净利润同比增长。
P02423:33
Combined with 16% operating leverage and a 20% return on allocated capital, these results reflect the strength of our client franchise, diversified platform, and disciplined execution. Client activity remains strong and the connectivity between markets, Global Banking, and Wealth and Investment Management continues to create value for clients. Investments in technology and AI are helping teams deliver insights faster, operate more efficiently, and further strengthen our competitive position. This was a record quarter built on scale, client engagement, and consistent execution across the franchise. Moving to all other on slide 17. We recorded a $292 million net loss in the quarter, which is larger than the year ago with no significant drivers to note. We reported an overall tax rate of 21.5%, consistent with our full-year guidance. In closing, the second quarter reflects the strength of our diversified operating model.
结合 16% 的经营杠杆和 20% 的分配资本回报率,这些业绩反映出我们客户业务体系的实力、多元化的平台以及严谨的执行力。客户活动依然强劲,市场业务、全球银行以及财富与投资管理之间的互联互通继续为客户创造价值。对技术和 AI 的投资正在帮助团队更快地提供洞察、更高效地运营,并进一步巩固我们的竞争地位。这是一个建立在全业务体系规模、客户参与度和一贯执行力之上的创纪录季度。翻到第 17 页幻灯片的“所有其他(All Other)”分部。本季度我们录得 2.92 亿美元的净亏损,高于去年同期,但没有需要特别指出的重大驱动因素。我们报告的整体税率为 21.5%,与我们的全年指引一致。最后总结一下,第 2 季度体现了我们多元化运营模式的实力。
P02524:43
We produced double-digit revenue growth and more than $9 billion of net income, with EPS growth of 34% and return on tangible common equity of 17%. We also delivered strong operating leverage while continuing to invest in the franchise and supporting our clients. Across the company, clients continued to invest, transact, and grow. Activity remains healthy across lending, payments, investment banking, markets, and wealth management, including technology, digital infrastructure, and AI-related opportunities. We also see meaningful opportunities to continue using AI and automation ourselves to improve productivity, strengthen client engagement, and support disciplined growth across the company. Taken together, these trends simply reinforce our confidence in the long-term earnings power of the franchise and our ability to deliver responsible growth and attractive returns for shareholders. With that, Leo, let's open it up and we'll see what questions we can answer.
我们实现了两位数的营收增长和超过 90 亿美元的净利润,每股收益(EPS)增长 34%,有形普通股股本回报率(ROTCE)达到 17%。我们在继续投资业务体系和支持客户的同时,也实现了强劲的经营杠杆。在全公司范围内,客户继续投资、交易和成长。贷款、支付、投资银行、市场和财富管理等领域的业务活动保持健康,其中包括技术、数字基础设施和 AI 相关机遇。我们也看到了继续利用 AI 和自动化来提升自身生产力、加强客户参与度并支持全公司审慎增长的重要机遇。总而言之,这些趋势进一步巩固了我们对业务体系长期盈利能力以及为股东实现负责任增长和具吸引力回报的能力的信心。下面,Leo,让我们开始提问环节,看看能回答大家的哪些问题。
问答环节
P02625:50
Operator
Thank you. If you'd like to ask a question, press star one on your keypad. To leave the queue at any time, press star two. Once again, that is star one to ask a question, and we'll pause for just a moment to allow everyone a chance to join the queue. Thank you. Our first question comes from Chris McGrady with KBW. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
谢谢。如果您想提问,请按电话键盘上的星号键加 1。如需随时退出排队,请按星号键加 2。再说一次,按星号键加 1 提问,我们将稍作停顿,以便大家都有机会加入排队。谢谢。我们的第 1 个问题来自 KBW 的 Chris McGratty。请讲,您的线路已接通。
P02726:17
Chris McGrattyManaging Director, KBW
Great. Good morning. Thanks for the question. Notice the deposit discipline in the quarter. Alastair, I'm interested in your thoughts about pricing in a higher for longer environment. I know you didn't change the full-year NII guide, but your deposit pricing outperformed some of your peers this quarter. Any comments on the near-term outlook would be great. Thanks.
太好了,早上好。感谢接受提问。我注意到本季度在存款方面的纪律性。Alastair,我想了解您对“利率在更长时间内保持高位”环境下的定价有何看法。我知道您没有调整全年净利息收入(NII)指引,但你们本季度的存款定价表现优于部分同业。如果能就近期展望发表一些评论就太好了。谢谢。
P02826:38
Alastair BorthwickEVP and CFO
I'd say we kind of just kept nudging NII a little bit higher as we've gone through the year, first from that five to seven up to the six to eight, then more recently saying we're probably going to be at the top end of that range. We've tried to express our confidence in the momentum of NII. Some of that comes from the deposit gathering. I think you know we've got a lot of liquidity. We're not loaned up at this point. We've got $800 billion of excess between our cash and securities over our loans. That really allows us to concentrate on our strategy. Our strategy is very clear. We're trying to grow clients and operating accounts. That's the highest quality growth. It's the highest quality clients. Because when you get that operating account, it's key to the financial lives.
我想说,随着今年推进,我们其实一直在把净利息收入(NII)预期往高处微调,先是从 5% 到 7% 上调至 6% 到 8%,最近又表示我们很可能会处于该区间的上限。我们一直试图表达对净利息收入(NII)增长势头的信心。其中一部分底气来自存款吸收。我想大家知道我们拥有充裕的流动性,目前贷款并未用满额度。我们的现金和证券超出贷款的部分有 8,000 亿美元的盈余。这确实使我们能够专注于自身战略。我们的战略非常明确:努力拓展客户和运营账户。这是最高质量的增长,也是最高质量的客户。因为一旦获得了运营账户,它就是客户财务生活的核心。
P02927:28
When consumer puts up 162,000 of net new checking accounts, or when we grow non-interest bearing for seven consecutive quarters, that's what helps us to drive the non-interest bearing up 4%. The lower rate paid is really about mix, Chris. We're competing out there for deposits like everyone else. We compete tooth and nail to get deposits where we can. At the end of the day, our strategy is about relationship value, all the things around digital and security and rewards that we talk about. It's that favorable mix of growing the non-interest bearing that makes a difference.
当消费者业务净新增 162,000 个支票账户,或者当我们的无息存款连续 7 个季度实现增长时,这正是推动我们无息存款增长 4% 的动力。Chris,较低的付息率实际上源于存款结构。我们和其他人一样在市场上竞争存款,在力所能及的地方全力以赴争夺存款。归根结底,我们的战略核心在于关系价值,即我们常谈到的围绕数字化、安全性和奖励计划的所有要素。正是无息存款增长带来的有利结构变化发挥了关键作用。
P03028:11
Chris McGrattyManaging Director, KBW
Okay. That's helpful. I appreciate that. On the operating leverage conversation in the new slide. I'm interested the two to 300 basis points plus of operating leverage that you talked about in November. You're clearly off to a great start. I'm interested in kind of the sustainability. Obviously, the comps will be a factor, but the influence that AI might have on that over time.
好的,这很有帮助,非常感谢。关于新幻灯片中有关经营杠杆的讨论,我对你们在 11 月谈到的 200 到 300 个基点以上的经营杠杆很感兴趣。你们显然取得了非常好的开局。我想了解这种表现的可持续性。显然基数效应(comps)会是一个因素,但我想知道随着时间推移,AI 可能会对此产生什么影响。
P03128:38
Alastair BorthwickEVP and CFO
Well, there are two elements to that, I think. First, obviously, we said at Investor Day, the sustainable kind of thing that we're aiming for is something like 200 to 300. Right now we're outperforming that. We've had a terrific first half at 450 basis points. That's what's giving us the confidence for the full year to say it's going to be above the range. AI plays a role, I think, in two ways. The first one is on the revenue side. There's obviously a big AI theme going on in the world. We're leading in investment banking and Global Markets around capital raising, financing that massive capital investment and infrastructure build around the world. That's helping us there. You're asking a question that's really about sustainability going forward. Can it help us with our own operations? The answer is yes.
我认为这有两个层面的因素。首先,显然我们在投资者日说过,我们所追求的可持续目标是 200 到 300 个基点左右。目前我们的表现超出了这一目标,上半年取得了 450 个基点的优异成绩。这正是让我们有信心表示全年表现将高于该区间的原因。我认为 AI 在两个方面发挥着作用。第 1 个方面是在营收端。显然目前全球都有一个巨大的 AI 主题。我们在投资银行和全球市场业务中处于领先地位,围绕资本募集,为全球大规模的资本投资和基础设施建设提供融资。这在营收端为我们提供了助力。而你问的问题实际上关乎未来的可持续性:它能帮助我们改善自身运营吗?答案是肯定的。
P03229:26
That's why we put that slide in. If you go to the slide, it's slide number 20. You just take a look. Remember, we've been at this for a little while now, but you can begin to see now in these general purpose productivity tools or the tools that are aimed at specific functions like the bankers or the wealth professionals or the software developers. You can see what we're doing there. There's another layer of AI on top of that that accesses a lot of the company. On the right-hand side, here's what's going to come out of that, we believe. Growth, efficiency, risk management, and resiliency. That's what we're trying to make sure. We're updating you on the AI as we're going through.
这就是我们放入那张幻灯片的原因。如果你翻到第 20 页幻灯片看一看,要知道我们在这方面已经投入有一段时间了,但现在你可以开始在这些通用生产力工具,或者针对银行家、财富管理专家、软件开发人员等特定职能的工具中看到成效。你可以看到我们在那里所做的工作。在此之上还有另一层能够接入公司大量资源的 AI。在幻灯片右侧,我们认为它将带来以下成果:增长、效率、风险管理和韧性。这就是我们正在努力确保实现的目标。随着工作的推进,我们会向大家更新 AI 方面的进展。
P03330:09
At this point, we put it at the top of the page just so you could see it, but you can see the number of approved model cases at this point is 300. You can see the number we've got in here that we're using, 114. This is going to be something for the future, and we're just working our way through it.
目前我们把它放在页面顶部以便大家看到,你可以看到目前已获批的模型用例数量为 300 个,而我们在这里列出的正在使用中的数量为 114 个。这将是面向未来的重要抓手,我们正在扎实推进。
P03430:30
Chris McGrattyManaging Director, KBW
Understood. Thanks so much.
明白了,非常感谢。
P03530:34
Operator
Thank you. We'll now move on to Glenn Schorr with Evercore. Your line is now open.
谢谢。接下来请 Evercore 的 Glenn Schorr 提问。您的线路已接通。
P03630:42
Brian MoynihanChairman and CEO
Morning, Glenn.
早上好,Glenn。
P03730:46
Mr. Schorr.
Schorr 先生。
P03830:46
You there?
您在吗?
P03930:48
Operator
Mr. Schorr, please check your mute switch. Your line is open. We'll move on to Ken Usdin with Bernstein Autonomous. Your line is now open.
Schorr 先生,请检查您的静音开关。您的线路已接通。我们将转由 Bernstein Autonomous 的 Ken Usdin 提问。您的线路已接通。
P04031:02
Ken UsdinSenior Research Analyst of Large-Cap Banks, Autonomous Research
Hi, thanks a lot. Hey, Alastair, just on the positive operating leverage point, I think you've made it very clear about the comps getting a little harder in the second half because of the ramp you had last year, starting with the NII and also markets. Can you just help us put it into some kind of context? Obviously, with 300 and 660 basis points of leverage and now talking to a full year of 300 to 400, just how do we kind of box the operating leverage potential for the second half as we get into this kind of tougher comps, albeit with the good top-line revenue growth continuing? Thanks.
嗨,非常感谢。嘿,Alastair,关于正经营杠杆这一点,我觉得你已经说得很清楚了,由于去年从净利息收入(NII)到市场业务的快速爬坡,今年下半年的同比基数会变得更高一些。你能否帮我们把具体情况梳理一下?显然,前两个季度分别实现了 300 和 660 个基点的经营杠杆,而现在谈到全年为 300 到 400 个基点,当我们进入同比基数更高的下半年(尽管顶线营收仍保持良好增长)时,我们该如何框定下半年的经营杠杆潜力?谢谢。
P04131:38
Alastair BorthwickEVP and CFO
Yeah. We're offering the $300-$400, recognizing that we've already booked $450 for the first half, so that's good. We're just trying to give you a range, Ken, that allows you to kind of work backwards, because as you point out, in the second half of last year, the NII went up more than the first half. Now, we think that'll happen this year as well, but it might not. Just the numbers are bigger this year, so the percentages just change a little bit. Remember, second quarter last year was a slower quarter for investment banking for the entire industry.
是的。我们给出 300-400 个基点的区间,同时认识到上半年已经录得 450 个基点,这很不错。Ken,我们只是想给大家一个可以倒推计算的区间,因为正如你所指出的,去年下半年的净利息收入(NII)增幅大于上半年。我们认为今年也会如此,但增幅未必有那么大。只是因为今年的基数更大了,所以百分比会略有变化。还要记住,去年第 2 季度对整个行业的投资银行业务来说都是一个较为缓慢的季度。
P04232:11
You think about it, if we put up $2.1 billion of investment banking this year, up 50%, if you kind of sustain that relative to what we did in the third quarter of last year, which was $2 billion or so, you just don't get the same kind of uplift in the second half. That's what we've got our minds on. Otherwise, as you can imagine, business conditions are very good. We're trying to maximize operating leverage where we can.
你想想看,如果今年我们录得 21 亿美元的投资银行收入,同比增长 50%,如果你把这个水平维持下去,并对比我们去年第 3 季度约 20 亿美元的业绩,那么下半年就不会有同样幅度的同比提升。这就是我们所考虑的因素。除此之外,正如你所想,目前业务环境非常好,我们正尽可能在各个领域最大化经营杠杆。
P04332:37
Ken UsdinSenior Research Analyst of Large-Cap Banks, Autonomous Research
Okay. Got it. You mentioned balance sheet optimization from here. Can you talk about where you have that room to continue to optimize, well, across the balance sheet, I guess, on both the asset side and the liability side as you focus more on that? Thanks.
好的,明白了。你提到了接下来的资产负债表优化。随着你们更加专注于此,你能否谈谈在资产负债表的资产端和负债端,你们还有哪些继续优化的空间?谢谢。
P04432:57
Alastair BorthwickEVP and CFO
Well, there are really two places I think that you'll see it. The first one is we've talked about the fact that we believe we can improve net interest yield over time. We've done that. You can see we're at 2.08% now. We're up from 1.94% a year ago. That's been a contributor to some of the NII gains. We've talked about on prior calls, we still feel like we carry some repo, some institutional CDs, that over time, we're just continuing to pay down. If those are invested at the Fed, we're not capturing a lot of spread. It doesn't do anything for NII. It actually hurts NIIY. It also ties up a little bit of capital. As we continue to pay that down, and I think you'll see more of that happening in the second half of this year, that'll free up more capital.
我认为你会主要在两个地方看到优化。第 1 个是我们之前谈到过,我们相信随着时间推移可以提高净利息收益率。我们已经做到了这一点。你可以看到我们现在是 2.08%,高于一年前的 1.94%。这为净利息收入(NII)的增长作出了一定贡献。我们在之前的电话会上谈到过,我们觉得账上仍持有一些回购协议(repo)和一些机构大额存单(CD),随着时间推移,我们正在持续偿还这些负债。如果把这些资金存放在美联储,我们赚取不到多少利差,对净利息收入(NII)没有任何帮助,反而会拖累净利息收益率(NIIY),同时还会占用一点资本。随着我们继续偿还这些资金——我认为今年下半年你会看到更多这样的操作——这将释放出更多资本。
P04533:49
It'll help us on the return on tangible common equity as well. We're sticking to that program. We'll have a pretty good opportunity in the second half. We're looking forward to that.
这也将有助于提升我们的有形普通股股本回报率(ROTCE)。我们正坚持推进这项计划,下半年将有很好的机会,我们对此充满期待。
P04633:58
Brian MoynihanChairman and CEO
Just note that there's no constraint on the growth of loans or core deposits, et cetera. That all can grow because it's all going to give good returns and things like that. It's really a question of sort of the centralized security portfolio is the term debt, the repo. As Alastair said, a lot of the buildup that came because of the rules getting flipped around is now we're through that and on the other side of it.
需要指出的是,贷款或核心存款等的增长没有任何限制。这些都可以继续增长,因为它们都能带来良好的回报。优化的核心实际上在于集中管理的证券投资组合、定期债务和回购协议(repo)。正如 Alastair 所说,此前因规则变动而导致的许多头寸累积,现在我们已经度过了那个阶段,走到了另一边。
P04734:22
Ken UsdinSenior Research Analyst of Large-Cap Banks, Autonomous Research
Okay. Got it. Thanks, guys. Appreciate it.
好的,明白了。谢谢各位,非常感谢。
P04834:26
Operator
Thank you. We'll move on to Manan Gosalia with Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.
谢谢。接下来请 Morgan Stanley 的 Manan Gosalia 提问。您的线路已接通。
P04934:35
Manan GosaliaHead of US Large and Midcap Banks Research, Morgan Stanley
Hey, good morning. Alastair, I know you outlined higher rates as a positive. If you can talk a little bit about if the rate environment changes here because we're getting a lot of changes overall. Would that impact the NII guide and as we think about just markets NII overall as well, given that prime brokerage and some of the other businesses are doing better, if there's any offset to getting to the high end of the 6%-8% NII guide.
嘿,早上好。Alastair,我知道你把利率上升列为积极因素。鉴于目前整体环境变化很快,如果利率环境发生变化,你能否谈谈这是否会影响净利息收入(NII)指引?另外,考虑到主经纪商(prime brokerage)和其他一些业务表现更好,当我们思考整体市场业务的净利息收入(NII)时,在实现 6%-8% 净利息收入(NII)指引上限的过程中是否存在任何抵消因素?
P05035:11
Alastair BorthwickEVP and CFO
Well, first, welcome to coverage. Nice to have you on the call. Thank you.
首先,欢迎你覆盖研究我们公司,很高兴你参加电话会。谢谢。
P05135:15
Manan GosaliaHead of US Large and Midcap Banks Research, Morgan Stanley
Thank you.
谢谢。
P05235:16
Alastair BorthwickEVP and CFO
Second, yeah, I mean, if we've got one rate hike in the curve, it's in September. Its impact this year is pretty modest because you're really only capturing anything in October, November, and December. We will obviously adjust pricing in each of our segments for any rate hike. Net, net, we expect that to be a positive. That's in our guide right now where we're saying it was five to seven, then it was six to eight. We're saying it's going to be at the top end of that range. That's with that hike. I think generally speaking, because the banking book is liability insensitive, that's the predominant benefit. The markets business is slightly liability sensitive, so that's a slight offset. Net, net, it's a positive for us, and that's what we're trying to communicate.
第二,是的,如果远期曲线中包含 1 次加息,那是在 9 月份。它对今年的影响相当温和,因为实际上只能在 10 月、11 月和 12 月体现出来。对于任何加息,我们显然都会在各个业务分部调整定价。综合来看,我们预计这将是一个积极因素。这已经包含在我们目前的指引中——我们先是给出了 5% 到 7%,然后上调至 6% 到 8%,现在我们表示将处于该区间的上限,其中就包含了那次加息。我认为总体而言,由于银行账簿对负债不敏感,因此主要体现为受益。而市场业务略微具有负债敏感性,因此会产生轻微的抵消作用。但净影响来看,这对我们是有利的,这就是我们想要传达的信息。
P05336:14
Manan GosaliaHead of US Large and Midcap Banks Research, Morgan Stanley
Got it. All right. Thank you. Apologies if I missed it, as you think about loan growth in the back half of the year and you think about I guess just middle market C&I growth, how is that trending, and what do you expect overall as we get into the back half of the year?
明白了,好的,谢谢。如果我漏听了请见谅,当你们思考今年下半年的贷款增长以及中型市场工商业贷款(C&I)增长时,目前的趋势如何?进入下半年后你们对整体情况有何预期?
P05436:34
Alastair BorthwickEVP and CFO
If we look at the middle market, we're sort of growing like commercial loans overall. They're growing around 8% or so. Middle market's in there. Larger cap corporates are in there. The growth looks pretty good, we would say, on the commercial side. If you go back now, I think it's over nine or 10 quarters, we've been growing loans at $20 billion or so per quarter. 7% last year, full year, 8% this year. The commercial growth's there. We don't necessarily see that changing. Feels to us like we're in a good environment for loan growth. Just keep half an eye also on card where Holly laid out a plan to say we want to get back towards 5% type card growth. We were at 1%, then two, then three. You can see this quarter we're at 4%.
如果我们看中型市场,它的增长速度与整体商业贷款大体一致,都在 8% 左右。中型市场包含在其中,大型企业也包含在其中。我们认为商业端的增长看起来相当不错。如果往回看,我想在过去 9 或 10 个季度里,我们每个季度的贷款增长都在 200 亿美元左右。去年全年增长 7%,今年增长 8%。商业贷款的增长势头就在那里,我们认为这不一定会出现变化。我们感觉目前正处于一个有利于贷款增长的良好环境中。另外也可以留意一下信用卡业务,Holly 制定了一项计划,提出要回到 5% 左右的信用卡增长水平。我们之前是 1%,然后是 2%、3%,你可以看到本季度我们已经达到了 4%。
P05537:22
Some good news on the consumer side. Things like securities-based lending have been pretty positive as well, just with the way the markets have performed and what our wealth management clients want to do. We remain pretty constructive on loan growth in the second half. No changes there.
消费者端有一些好消息。随着市场表现向好以及财富管理客户的需求释放,证券质押贷款等业务也表现得相当积极。我们对下半年的贷款增长依然保持相当乐观的态度,这方面没有任何变化。
P05637:39
Manan GosaliaHead of US Large and Midcap Banks Research, Morgan Stanley
Great. Thank you.
太好了,谢谢。
P05737:44
Operator
Thank you. We'll move next to Ben Gerlinger with Citi. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
谢谢。接下来请 Citi 的 Ben Gerlinger 提问。您的线路已接通,请讲。
P05837:52
Ben GerlingerDirector of Equity Research for US Large Cap and Regional Banks, Citi
Hi. Good morning. I was curious. I get that the updated guide closer to the higher end of NII includes the forward hike potential. I was curious if, does that also incorporate a little bit more productivity on the average earning asset mix? I know you guys have alluded to a little bit more productivity down the road, and I get that that takes time. Just kind of curious, is the guidance based on a static balance sheet or the continuation of a little bit more loans in the average earning assets?
嗨,早上好。我很好奇,我理解更新后的净利息收入(NII)指引更接近区间上限包含了远期加息的潜力。我想知道,这是否也纳入了平均生息资产结构效率的进一步提升?我知道你们曾提到未来会进一步提升资产效率,我也理解这需要时间。只是有点好奇,这一指引是基于静态的资产负债表,还是基于平均生息资产中贷款占比继续小幅提升?
P05938:22
Alastair BorthwickEVP and CFO
Yep. Ben, also, welcome to coverage. Thanks for joining. Yeah, the updated guide essentially assumes the following. First, modest deposit growth similar to what we've been seeing. Second, good continued loan growth in the second half of the year, similar to what we've been seeing. We haven't really changed our perspectives on either of those. We'll get the benefit from some fixed rate asset repricing, get a little bit more of that in the second half than the first half. Otherwise, it's mostly balance sheet gains. What I described in terms of balance sheet efficiency, I would think about that as being more about net interest yield and less about NII. Okay?
是的。Ben,同样欢迎你覆盖研究我们公司,感谢参加。是的,更新后的指引基本上假设了以下几点。第一,与我们目前所看到的类似的温和存款增长。第二,下半年继续保持与目前类似的良好贷款增长。我们对这两者的看法实际上并没有改变。我们将从固定利率资产重新定价中获益,且下半年的获益程度会比上半年略多一些。除此之外,主要来自资产负债表规模增长带来的收益。至于我所描述的资产负债表效率提升,我倾向于认为它更多体现在净利息收益率上,而不是净利息收入(NII)的绝对额上。好吗?
P06039:03
Ben GerlingerDirector of Equity Research for US Large Cap and Regional Banks, Citi
Gotcha. That's helpful. If I could do a follow-up in terms of operating leverage. I get that you've increased the guide for the full year this year. When you think about just the higher revenue production that you kind of alluded to, do you run the risk of potentially under-investing? I get that you're probably ahead of peers across every major category of AI and technology and just being a bit more digital. If you have more revenue, do you think you could potentially speed up the spending so it pulls forward into this year, reducing that leverage?
明白了,这很有帮助。我想就经营杠杆再追问一下。我理解你们上调了今年全年的指引。当考虑到你们提到的更高的营收产出时,你们是否面临潜在投资不足的风险?我知道你们在 AI、技术以及数字化程度的几乎每个主要类别上可能都领先于同业。但如果你们有更多的营收,你们认为是否可能会加快支出力度,将支出提前到今年,从而降低经营杠杆?
P06139:35
Brian MoynihanChairman and CEO
I think we are spending at a good clip overall in technology and also dedicating a lot of time in the company towards careful examination implementation, catalyst, people working to understand the projects in AI. We gave you the outline on slide 20. I think there's productivity increases. There's a lot of spending. We're going to be spending more of it. Whether that increases expenditures of technology development dramatically or not, it really has to do with a couple of things. One is the shifting of spending towards it. Secondly, even the coding process has become more and more efficient using these tools. The same amount of money in 2027 will get us more code, for lack of a better term, in 2028. We're driving everything as hard as we can.
我认为我们在技术领域的整体支出节奏已经很快,同时在公司内部也投入了大量时间,用于审慎评估、落地实施和催化推进,让员工深入理解 AI 项目。我们在第 20 页幻灯片上为大家给出了概览。我认为这带来了生产力的提升。我们已经进行了大量投入,而且还会投入更多。至于这是否会大幅增加技术开发支出,实际上取决于几个因素。一是将现有支出向该领域倾斜;其次,借助这些工具,编程过程本身也变得越来越高效。坦率地说,同样多的资金在 2027 年和 2028 年将为我们带来更多的代码产出。我们正在全力以赴推进这一切。
P06240:25
Our focus on operating leverage, and we just told you we raised us above the normalized range. We're continuing to invest in the places that grow the business, especially around the Consumer Banking. Think financial centers and new markets done on a rational, full market build-out basis, not on a one-off, one-at-a-time basis, building out cities we're not in. We continue to drive the marketing capabilities of the firm and our consumer scores have now reached all-time highs. We invested heavily in our rewards program, which goes to some of your other colleagues' ability to cement relationships with great deposit mix and the result cost of funds. We're spending. I don't think you'll see a major change in our methodology of how we think about spending.
我们专注于经营杠杆,而且刚刚告诉大家我们已将预期上调至常态化区间之上。我们正继续向能够推动业务增长的领域投资,尤其是围绕消费者银行业务。比如在新市场建设金融中心,我们是按照理性、完整的市场布局方式推进,而不是零敲碎打地每次只建一家,从而在我们尚未进入的城市完成网络铺设。我们继续提升公司的营销能力,我们的消费者满意度得分现已创下历史新高。我们对奖励计划进行了大量投资,这有助于像刚才其他几位分析师提到的那样,通过优异的存款结构和由此带来的资金成本优势来巩固客户关系。我们一直在投入。我认为你不会看到我们思考支出的方法论发生重大改变。
P06341:14
A lot of the incremental expense growth from second quarter this year, last year was due to incentives and BCNE clearing expenses. If that keeps going, we'll be happy as a very happy because that means the revenue's got to grow. If the revenue slows down, expense growth rate will slow down, and it will have a different type of operating leverage that Alastair described earlier.
今年第 2 季度较去年同期的新增费用增长,很大一部分源于激励薪酬以及经纪、清算和交易所(BCNE)费用。如果这笔费用继续增长,我们会非常高兴,因为这意味着营收必然在增长。如果营收放缓,费用增速也会随之放缓,届时就会呈现出 Alastair 刚才所描述的另一种类型的经营杠杆。
P06441:40
Ben GerlingerDirector of Equity Research for US Large Cap and Regional Banks, Citi
Great. Thank you.
太好了,谢谢。
P06541:43
Operator
Thank you. We'll now move on to Erika Najarian with UBS. The line is now open.
谢谢。接下来请 UBS 的 Erika Najarian 提问。线路已接通。
P06641:51
Alastair BorthwickEVP and CFO
Hi. Good morning. The investor feedback so far, is that they feel that the net interest income guide is conservative. Maybe I'll just re-unpack the number of questions that you've gotten already on this, Alastair. The first half of the year, NII growth is up nine. Clearly the second half of the year is tougher comps, right? Which you're saying would get you within the range. We just wanted to understand. You mentioned that included in your guide is modest deposit growth, good loan growth, improving card growth, which obviously is coming at a better yield. Are we getting earning asset growth for the second half of the year, but not much NIM expansion? I guess we're just trying to think about the jumping off point
嗨,早上好。到目前为止投资者的反馈是,他们觉得净利息收入(NII)指引偏保守。Alastair,也许我可以再拆解一下你已经收到的关于这个话题的几个问题。今年上半年,净利息收入(NII)增长了 9%。显然下半年的同比基数更高,对吧?你们表示这会使全年增速落在指引区间内。我们只是想弄清楚:你提到指引中包含了温和的存款增长、良好的贷款增长、改善的信用卡增长(这显然会带来更高的收益率)。那么在今年下半年,我们是会看到生息资产增长,但净息差(NIM)扩张不多吗?我想我们只是在思考那个起跳点——
P06742:44
Erika NajarianManaging Director and Equity Research Analyst of Large-Cap Banks and Consumer Finance, UBS
To sort of that will slow your NII growth from the 9% that you've printed for the first half of the year.
也就是是什么因素会让你们的净利息收入(NII)增速从上半年录得的 9% 放缓。
P06842:54
Alastair BorthwickEVP and CFO
Yeah. Okay. Well, first thing I should say is it's not slowing it much.
是的,好的。首先我应该说,它并没有放缓多少。
P06942:58
Erika NajarianManaging Director and Equity Research Analyst of Large-Cap Banks and Consumer Finance, UBS
Yeah.
是的。
P07042:59
Alastair BorthwickEVP and CFO
I think it's actually helpful, I think, to just lay out. If you look at the 4 quarters of 2025 just sequentially.
我认为把数据摊开来看其实很有帮助。如果你按季度环比来看 2025 年的 4 个季度——
P07143:07
Erika NajarianManaging Director and Equity Research Analyst of Large-Cap Banks and Consumer Finance, UBS
Yeah
是的。
P07243:07
Lay out essentially 2026. What you see is most all of the NII build last year was in the second half of the year. We're just up against tougher comps, that's all. It's not more complicated than that. We just got to stick doing what we're doing. We got to keep growing the loans. We got to keep growing the deposits with particular focus on operating accounts and non-interest bearing. We'll get some benefit from fixed rate asset repricing as we do. We've invested in Global Markets with their balance sheet. That's a net positive, but I don't expect that to be anything particularly big in the second half of the year because markets, generally speaking, is sort of at a good run rate right now. We're talking about 8% or 9%. I don't know. They're both very good.
再对比看 2026 年。你会发现,去年绝大部分的净利息收入(NII)增长都发生在下半年。我们只是面临更高的同比基数,仅此而已,并没有比这更复杂的原因。我们只需要坚持做好正在做的事情:必须继续增长贷款,必须继续增长存款,特别是专注于运营账户和无息存款。我们会像往常一样从固定利率资产重新定价中获得一些收益。我们已经利用资产负债表对全球市场业务进行了投入,这是一个净正面因素,但我预计它在今年下半年不会产生特别大的增量,因为总体而言,市场业务目前已经处于一个良好的年化运行率水平。我们谈论的是 8% 还是 9%,这不好说,两者都非常好。
P07343:55
Alastair BorthwickEVP and CFO
We kind of feel like right now it looks to us like more like 8% for the full year just based on the comps.
仅基于同比基数来看,我们感觉目前全年更像是 8% 左右。
P07444:02
Erika NajarianManaging Director and Equity Research Analyst of Large-Cap Banks and Consumer Finance, UBS
Got it. My second question is, Brian, you printed a return of 17% on tangible common equity this quarter. Granted, the equities number and the IB numbers are huge. I guess a two-part question. Number one, just sort of reaffirming that your positive operating leverage being better in a full year but slower in the first half is only due to the seasonal revenue factors that you're taking into account. In theory, if the pipeline continues to be robust in banking and markets, it could be better, right? Second, as you think about sort of a very strong year in terms of returns, are you willing to invest in perhaps slightly lower return than the 16%-18% target businesses like equities financing, for example, to continue to set yourself up for earnings growth going forward?
明白了。我的第 2 个问题是问 Brian 的,本季度你们录得了 17% 的有形普通股股本回报率(ROTCE)。诚然,股票业务和投行业务的数据非常庞大。我想问一个包含两部分的问题。第 1,想再次确认一下,你们的正经营杠杆全年表现更好、但下半年增速放缓,是否仅仅是因为你们考虑了季节性营收因素?从理论上讲,如果投行和市场业务的项目储备继续保持强劲,表现可能会更好,对吧?第 2,当你们思考回报率非常强劲的一年时,你们是否愿意投资于一些回报率可能略低于 16%-18% 目标的业务(例如股票融资业务),以继续为未来的盈利增长奠定基础?
P07545:04
Brian MoynihanChairman and CEO
Erica, there's a lot in assumptions and things. Let me just be clear. The return on tangible common equity was 17%. We thought it would take us longer to get there. That has in part due to the strong operating of the general businesses that are operating very well, getting good operating leverage, Consumer Banking, commercial banking, and benefiting by the NII lift as well as the strong performance markets. Right now, we see very strong performance this quarter, and we expect it to continue based on the market conditions. The Iran war is intractable, and we can't predict what will happen next in it, and that could affect the market's perception, IPOs, et cetera. Right now, the pipelines are feeling very good about that. The loan growth, deposit growth Alastair described. We feel very good about the returns and maintaining those returns.
Erika,这里面包含了很多假设和前提。让我明确说明一下:本季度的有形普通股股本回报率(ROTCE)达到了 17%。我们原本以为需要更长时间才能达到这一水平。这在一定程度上归功于各通用业务的强劲运营——消费者银行、商业银行运营得非常好,获得了良好的经营杠杆,并受益于净利息收入(NII)的提升以及市场业务的强劲表现。目前,我们在本季度看到了非常强劲的表现,并且基于当前的市场环境,我们预计这种势头将会持续。伊朗战争局势依然胶着,我们无法预测接下来会发生什么,那可能会影响市场情绪、IPO 等活动。但就目前而言,项目储备情况让人感觉非常好。再加上 Alastair 所描述的贷款增长和存款增长,我们对目前的回报率以及维持这些回报率感觉非常好。
P07645:59
In this current quarter, there was a pretty healthy lift off of last year in a strong markets return, as you mentioned. We're a balanced company. The other parts are kicking in. The key for everyone to understand is it's all going to come to the bottom line, and that's our goal is to make sure all the NII lift as we march from 190s in NIM up to the 230s, which we said we could do. That all that fell the bottom line along the way, and that's what we're driving at. If you look at the expense growth, it's really related to the fee-based businesses, and the rest of it's having a very rational amount of expense growth because the efficiency measures, and it's dropping the bottom line, and that's why the earnings growth was 30-plus % EPS. Expect that to continue.
正如你所提到的,在本季度,强劲的市场业务回报带来了较去年同期的可观提升。但我们是一家均衡发展的公司,其他业务板块也在发力。大家需要理解的关键在于,所有这些增长最终都会落到净利润(bottom line)上,我们的目标是确保随着净息差(NIM)从 190 多个基点迈向我们曾表示能够达到的 230 多个基点,所有的净利息收入(NII)提升都能在这一过程中转化为净利润,这正是我们努力推动的方向。如果你看费用增长,它实际上主要与收费型业务相关,而其余业务的费用增长则保持在非常理性的水平,因为有各项效率举措的支撑,所以收入增长都转化为了净利润,这就是为什么每股收益(EPS)盈利增速能超过 30%。预计这一趋势将会延续。
P07746:44
We're not hiding it from you. We're growing. We're having operating leverage of 660 basis points. We're letting it come to the bottom line. Meanwhile, we're investing heavily in the growth of this company to make sure that we're positioned in the future. Whether we accept lower returning business or not, we always look at all the businesses and say, "What can you swap out from low return to higher returning based on the return on tangible common equity metric?" Which at 6% ±, we think is the right standard to look at. We think it's what the rating agents look at. We think the people operating below that have to be careful. That's lesson learned from the financial crisis. We expect to be around that level. When people have optimization opportunities, they have to grow the bottom line.
我们并没有向大家隐瞒什么。我们正在增长,我们实现了 660 个基点的经营杠杆,并且让它转化为净利润。与此同时,我们正大力投资于公司的增长,以确保我们在未来占据有利地位。至于我们是否接受回报率较低的业务,我们始终在审视所有业务并问自己:“根据有形普通股股本回报率(ROTCE)指标,有哪些低回报业务可以置换成高回报业务?”结合 6% 左右的杠杆水平,我们认为这是衡量的正确标准,也是评级机构所看重的标准。我们认为低于这一水平的机构必须保持谨慎,这是从金融危机中吸取的教训。我们预计将保持在这一水平附近。当团队遇到优化机会时,他们必须实现净利润增长。
P07847:29
If they can grow it with more return, we're pushing them to do that as well as letting them grow to meet the market demand.
如果他们能以更高的回报率实现增长,我们会推动他们这样做,同时也允许他们通过增长来满足市场需求。
P07947:38
Erika NajarianManaging Director and Equity Research Analyst of Large-Cap Banks and Consumer Finance, UBS
Got it. Thanks.
明白了,谢谢。
P08047:42
Operator
Thank you. We'll now move on to Mike Mayo with Wells Fargo. Your line is now open.
谢谢。接下来请 Wells Fargo 的 Mike Mayo 提问。您的线路已接通。
P08147:49
Mike MayoManaging Director and Head of US Large-Cap Bank Research, Wells Fargo
Hi. Could you elaborate more on the change in your operating leverage guide? That's quite a big lift there. You did address the NII. That all falls to the bottom line. I get that part, and we get the equities trading going up more. Aside from that, it still seems to be guided quite a bit higher. Your marginal margin or the scalability of your model, I think you've been kind of waiting for this moment when you can layer on more revenues at lower marginal cost. Can you highlight the areas that's impacting that the most?
嗨。你们能否进一步详细谈谈经营杠杆指引的调整?这次上调幅度相当大。你们确实谈到了净利息收入(NII)全部转化为净利润,这部分我理解,我们也看到了股票交易业务的进一步增长。但即便如此,指引上调的幅度看起来仍然相当大。关于你们的边际利润率或业务模式的可扩展性,我想你们一直在等待这样一个时刻——能够以更低的边际成本叠加更多的营收。你们能否重点谈谈对此影响最大的领域?
P08248:25
Alastair BorthwickEVP and CFO
Yeah. Mike, when we got together at Investor Day, we essentially outlined for our shareholders that we felt like the financial model works if we can create 200 basis points of operating leverage from the organic growth and the expense discipline that we expect to put up every cycle. What we also said is we benefit from fixed rate asset repricing for a period of time here. We kind of felt like what we were prepared to commit for the next three to five years was 200 to 300 basis points of operating leverage. Obviously, we have performed positively and outperformed that in the first six months of the year. The two reasons for that are, first, NII just keeps grinding higher, and as Brian pointed out, all of that's dropping to the bottom line. That's really powerful.
好的。Mike,当我们在投资者日欢聚一堂时,我们向股东们概述了我们的看法:如果我们能通过每个周期都坚持的内生增长和费用纪律创造出 200 个基点的经营杠杆,那么这个财务模式就是行之有效的。我们同时还表示,在未来一段时间内,我们将受益于固定利率资产的重新定价。因此我们觉得,在未来 3 到 5 年内,我们准备好承诺的目标是 200 到 300 个基点的经营杠杆。显然,在今年前 6 个月里,我们表现积极并超越了这一目标。原因有两个:第一,净利息收入(NII)持续稳步攀升,而且正如 Brian 所指出的,所有这些增量都直接转化为了净利润,这非常强大。
P08349:13
Second, we had really terrific fee-based performance over the course of the first six months. You can see it in assets under management. You can see it in sales and trading. You can see it investment banking. That's really boosted. At some point, you're halfway through the year with 450 basis points of operating leverage, and it's pretty clear we're going to be above 300. We know we've got tougher comps in the second half, but it's still a strong second half. When we put that up, we should be in a good place to report full year results. That's what we're aiming at.
第二,在前 6 个月里,我们的收费型业务表现极为出色。你可以在资产管理规模(AUM)、销售和交易以及投资银行业务中看到这一点,这带来了巨大的提振。当时间过半、你已经实现了 450 个基点的经营杠杆时,全年超过 300 个基点就已经非常明确了。我们知道下半年的同比基数更高,但下半年依然会很强劲。当我们把下半年的业绩做出来时,我们应该能够交出一份很好的全年成绩单。这就是我们的目标。
P08449:43
Mike MayoManaging Director and Head of US Large-Cap Bank Research, Wells Fargo
Did you provide any expense guidance for the year or the second half?
你们有提供全年或下半年的费用指引吗?
P08549:49
Alastair BorthwickEVP and CFO
No, we've largely gone away from that, Mike, for the very simple reason that when you have revenues increase this quickly, and some of them come with brokerage clearing and exchange costs, some come with FA incentive cost. It's really hard for us to just keep updating the expense through the case of the quarter. Our shareholders have just said, "Look, it's sometimes easier to stick with operating leverage." We found that. I think if you look at the core, the best core measure is probably headcount. Our headcount discipline over the last six quarters has been excellent. It's flat to slightly down. We expect good core expense discipline. The expense at this point is really going to be based on what happens with revenue. If the revenue isn't there, the expense will come down.
没有,Mike,我们基本上已经不再提供具体的费用指引了,原因非常简单:当营收增长如此之快,且其中一部分伴随着经纪清算和交易所成本、一部分伴随着财务顾问(FA)激励成本时,我们很难在季度推进过程中不断去更新费用数字。我们的股东也表示:“有时候盯住经营杠杆反而更简单。”我们也认同这一点。我认为如果看核心费用的话,最好的核心指标可能是员工人数。过去 6 个季度我们在员工人数上的纪律性非常出色,保持持平至小幅下降。我们预计核心费用将继续保持良好的纪律性。目前的费用水平实际上将取决于营收的表现:如果营收没有达到那个水平,费用就会随之下降。
被引用:↩ FY2026Q2 季度复盘 · 结论摘要↩ FY2026Q2 季度复盘 · 业绩与指引↩ FY2026Q2 季度复盘 · 财务拆解 · 成本效率与经营杠杆↩ FY2026Q2 季度复盘 · 当季异动 · 2. 正经营杠杆达 660 个基点,拨备前利润同比 +26.0%、净利润同比 +26.6%|改善↩ FY2026Q2 季度复盘 · 电话会要点 · 指引与展望↩ FY2026Q2 季度复盘 · 电话会要点 · 管理层情绪与问答焦点↩ FY2026Q2 季度复盘 · 管理层口径变化↩ FY2026Q2 季度复盘 · 对投资逻辑的影响↩ FY2026Q3 季度复盘 · 管理层口径变化↩ FY2026Q2 电话会解析 · 核心判断↩ FY2026Q2 电话会解析 · 问答解析 · Mike Mayo(Wells Fargo):经营杠杆大幅上调的原因、为何不给费用指引、财富管理净流入与传统商业贷款↩ FY2026Q2 电话会解析 · 措辞与语气信号
P08650:38
If it sustains where it is currently, you see what it costs to operate the company right now on the fees that we just put up.
如果营收维持在当前水平,那么在我们刚刚交出的收费业务规模下,你可以看到目前运营这家公司所需的成本。
P08750:46
Mike MayoManaging Director and Head of US Large-Cap Bank Research, Wells Fargo
As a follow-up, going back to Investor Day, I think you're looking for cards to grow 5%, and as you said, it's gone from one, two, three, now 4%, that's there. You also are hoping for net new asset growth at 5%. I don't think this quarter the net client flows weren't as good. Just if you could comment on that. Lastly, on commercial loan growth, traditional C&I growth away from the hyperscalers and all that. I'm trying to figure out if that's actually coming back or not. Your being across the U.S. is a good guide for that.
追问一下,回到投资者日,我想你们希望信用卡业务增长 5%,正如你所说,它已经从 1%、2%、3% 上升到了现在的 4%,这已经快达到了。你们还希望净新增资产增长达到 5%。我觉得本季度的客户资金净流入表现没有那么好,能否请你们对此发表一下评论?最后,关于商业贷款增长,即除超大规模云厂商(hyperscalers)等之外的传统工商业贷款(C&I)增长,我想弄清楚这是否真的在回暖。你们业务遍布全美,是观察这一点的良好风向标。
P08851:24
Alastair BorthwickEVP and CFO
First, I think you were referring to the Merrill 5% guide, where we said we are aiming for 5% over the course of the next three to five years.
首先,我想你指的是 Merrill 的 5% 增长目标,我们当时表示我们的目标是在未来 3 到 5 年内实现 5% 的增长。
P08951:34
Mike MayoManaging Director and Head of US Large-Cap Bank Research, Wells Fargo
Yeah.
是的。
P09051:34
Alastair BorthwickEVP and CFO
It's been seven months, I think we're off to a good start there. We added net new households again this quarter. This was the best quarter in the last few, that was good. Probably the most important flow is the assets under management flows, where they were up 4%, we're happy with that. The loans were up 13%, I think it was year-over-year. I think what Lindsay and Eric are trying to drive there, what Katie's trying to drive there is just keep growing the sales force. Well, advisor attrition is now at near historic lows, we're pretty happy with that. We've got more to do. We know that over the course of the next three to five years, I think we feel like we're off to a good start, we're happy with that.
现在才过去了 7 个月,我认为我们已经取得了良好的开局。本季度我们再次净新增了家庭客户,这是过去几个季度以来表现最好的一个季度,非常不错。最重要的资金流入可能是资产管理规模(AUM)资金流入,本季度增长了 4%,我们对此感到满意。贷款同比增长了 13% 左右。我认为 Lindsay 和 Eric 以及 Katie 在那里努力推动的核心就是继续壮大销售团队。目前顾问流失率处于历史最低水平附近,我们对此相当满意。但我们还有更多工作要做。我们知道在未来 3 到 5 年的过程里,我们觉得目前开局良好,并对此感到满意。
P09152:18
On the commercial loan growth, yes, it's broader than just an AI theme. The AI theme has helped because there's so much in the way of capital investment going on globally now. When we look at our Global Banking segments, each of the lines of business, whether it's business banking, the commercial bank or the corporate bank, they're all contributing. It's very broad-based loan growth at this point. It's consistent loan growth in commercial. That's another reason why we're pretty comfortable with our NII guide for the second half of the year.
关于商业贷款增长,是的,它的范围比单纯的 AI 主题更广泛。AI 主题确实提供了助力,因为目前全球范围内正在进行大量的资本投资。但当我们审视全球银行的各个细分领域时,无论是小微企业银行(business banking)、商业银行(commercial bank)还是企业银行(corporate bank),每一条业务线都在作出贡献。目前的商业贷款增长基础非常广泛,而且表现持续稳健。这也是我们对下半年净利息收入(NII)指引感到相当有把握的另一个原因。
P09252:57
Mike MayoManaging Director and Head of US Large-Cap Bank Research, Wells Fargo
All right. Thank you.
好的,谢谢。
P09353:02
Operator
Thank you. We'll now move on to Gerard Cassidy with RBC. Your line is now open.
谢谢。接下来请 RBC 的 Gerard Cassidy 提问。您的线路已接通。
P09453:09
Gerard CassidyManaging Director and Head of US Bank Equity Strategy and Large-Cap Bank Analyst, RBC
Hi, Brian. Hi, Alastair. Can you guys take a step back and just give us a sense, what are you seeing in the underwriting area for credit? Is there risk ongoing on? I mean, numbers are great for you and your peers. The economy is healthy. What are you guys seeing for the trends there?
嗨,Brian。嗨,Alastair。你们能否退一步,给我们总体介绍一下你们在信贷承销领域看到了什么情况?是否存在持续积聚的风险?我的意思是,你们和同业的数据看起来都非常好,经济也很健康。你们在那里看到了怎样的趋势?
P09553:29
Alastair BorthwickEVP and CFO
I'd say, Gerard, overall, from what we're underwriting, we stick to our credit knitting, so to speak. It's been consistent. It's been long-term. You can see it in the stress test results again that just got issued. In what we do, we maintain that consistency. The nice thing is we can maintain that consistency and actually grow as strong or stronger in the industry in core middle market areas that you're thinking about, small business, et cetera. We feel very good about that. Do we see some excesses on outside? We always do. A lot of that went to a different market, not in the banking system. Some of that's come back and now they have to do it more on bank lendable terms, so to speak. We'll see if it stays that way.
Gerard,我想说总体而言,就我们的承销工作而言,我们始终坚守自己的信贷本分。这一标准一直保持一贯且着眼长远。从刚刚再次发布的压力测试结果中,你也可以看到这一点。在我们的日常业务中,我们始终保持这种一致性。可喜的是,我们不仅能保持这种一致性,还能在你所关心的核心中型市场领域、小企业等领域实现与行业同样强劲甚至更强劲的增长。我们对此感觉非常好。我们是否看到外部存在一些过度冒险的行为?我们总会看到。其中很大一部分流向了另一个市场,而不在银行体系内。现在其中一部分业务回流了,而他们必须更多地按照银行可放贷的条款来做。我们会观察这种情况是否会持续下去。
P09654:20
We're seeing price pressure in some of the more liquid products like auto loans and stuff, that's why we laid off a little bit as the pricing got very tight. That happens once in a while. Overall, we feel good that the credit quality is high, the underwriting that we see is high. Some of the impact of more leverage done loans outside the banking system is mitigated as that practice straightens itself out over time here. We feel very
我们在汽车贷款等一些流动性较强的产品中看到了一定的价格竞争压力,因此当定价变得非常激进时,我们适度放缓了节奏。这种情况每隔一段时间就会发生。总体而言,我们感到信贷质量很高,我们所看到的承销标准也很高。随着银行体系外高杠杆贷款的做法随时间推移逐步规范,其带来的部分影响正在得到缓解。我们对——
P09754:47
Brian MoynihanChairman and CEO
Good about the credit quality. It's all going to come down to the economy, right now, our team is very constructive on the economy and unemployment at 4.2 or whatever it is. New claims for unemployment staying low. It's a pretty good place. That's why you're seeing a complete sort of steadiness in our credit cost. Importantly, the issues of the moment, whether it's real estate four or five years ago or whether it was private capital lending and all this stuff, just aren't surfacing the way people thought they would.
信贷质量感觉非常好。归根结底这完全取决于宏观经济,而目前我们的团队对经济非常乐观,失业率保持在 4.2% 左右,首次申请失业救济人数保持在低位,整体状况相当不错。这就是为什么你会看到我们的信贷成本完全保持平稳。更重要的是,无论是一度备受关注的 4 到 5 年前的房地产问题,还是私募资本信贷等问题,都没有像人们原本担心的那样浮出水面。
P09855:19
Gerard CassidyManaging Director and Head of US Bank Equity Strategy and Large-Cap Bank Analyst, RBC
Very good. Thank you. As a follow-up, I don't know if you guys could frame this out, AI is such a powerful economic force in this country. Have you guys been able to frame out, not exposure to data center build-out, but the second derivative? Because you wonder two, three, four years from now if AI ever kind of slows down or rolls over. What's the second derivative credit aspect from that? Have you guys given that much thought?
非常好,谢谢。追问一下,不知道你们能否梳理一下:AI 在这个国家是一股如此强大的经济力量,你们是否已经梳理过——我指的不是对数据中心建设本身的直接风险敞口,而是二阶衍生影响?因为人们会想,如果 2、3、4 年后 AI 发展有所放缓或见顶回落,由此带来的二阶信贷影响会是什么?你们对此有过深入思考吗?
P09955:47
Brian MoynihanChairman and CEO
When we look at the work we do with clients and others, we factor in across all our companies as part of the underwriting work that the team does. They have to factor in the question of what's the impact of AI in the industry and the company and what will happen. I think it'll take time, as you said, we continue to watch that. As we look at underlying deals, we're always looking at the credit, the capability and the earnings power of the underlying tenants, so to speak, that are driving the revenue to the build-out. That we can keep care on. When we look at the energy build-out, we see the demand there. We look at all the factors you're talking about.
当我们审视与客户及其他各方开展的业务时,作为团队承销工作的一部分,我们会在所有授信企业中纳入这一考量。他们必须评估 AI 对所在行业和企业的影响以及未来可能发生的变化。正如你所说,我认为这需要时间,我们会持续保持观察。当我们审视底层交易时,我们始终关注底层租户(正是他们为基础设施建设带来营收来源)的信用状况、实力和盈利能力,这是我们可以严格把控的。当我们审视能源基础设施建设时,我们看到了切实的需求。我们正在全面考量你所提到的所有因素。
P10056:30
What we learn from also is not only what happens outside, we see the impact on our company and the ability for us to use it effectively, relatively quickly. It's a very powerful tool. It has great utility. It has to be carefully managed. You have to have your data perfect. You have to have your rules base so it doesn't make mistakes in how you use it. You have to look at processes and not engineer them. We feel very strong about it, and we talk to the companies that are in our portfolios of lending to make sure they're active using this so they don't get left behind. On the other hand, they're using it in a responsible way so that they can protect their data and their security and things like that. We feel good about it.
此外,我们的认知不仅来自外部发生的变化,也来自我们看到的 AI 对我们自身公司的影响,以及我们相对快速、有效地运用它的能力。它是一个非常强大的工具,具有巨大的实用价值,但必须加以审慎管理。你必须确保数据完美无缺,必须建立完善的规则库以防在使用过程中出错,还必须审视业务流程而不是盲目拼凑。我们对它非常有信心,并且会与我们贷款组合中的企业沟通,确保他们积极使用这项技术以免掉队;另一方面,也要确保他们以负责任的方式使用它,从而保护好自身的数据和安全等。我们对此感觉良好。
P10157:15
We feel it'll be a powerful force in place for the American economy. It'll be very successful.
我们认为它将成为支撑美国经济的一股强大力量,并将取得巨大成功。
P10257:22
Gerard CassidyManaging Director and Head of US Bank Equity Strategy and Large-Cap Bank Analyst, RBC
Thank you, Brian.
谢谢你,Brian。
P10357:27
Operator
Thank you. We'll now move on to Matt O'Connor with Deutsche Bank. Your line is now open.
谢谢。接下来请 Deutsche Bank 的 Matt O'Connor 提问。您的线路已接通。
P10457:34
Matt O'ConnorManaging Director, Deutsche Bank
Good morning. Just a quick follow-up on net interest income. The guidance for this year is essentially to be up 8%. What is that ex markets?
早上好。关于净利息收入(NII)快速追问一下:今年的指引基本上是增长 8%,如果剔除市场业务(ex markets),这一增速是多少?
P10557:46
Alastair BorthwickEVP and CFO
I need to take a look. Give me one second. I need to work it back.
我需要查一下。请给我 1 秒钟,我需要倒推计算一下。
P10657:59
Matt O'ConnorManaging Director, Deutsche Bank
Okay.
好的。
P10758:01
Alastair BorthwickEVP and CFO
Matt, I can help with that offline once we finish it up. It's not going to be a big factor because I think what's going to end up happening is the markets NII is probably pretty stable here. It could even go down with the rate cut in fourth quarter, but it'll be flat to slightly down is my guess. Most all of the growth is going to come from the Global Banking books.
Matt,电话会结束后我可以私下帮你核对这个数据。但这不会是一个很大的影响因素,因为我认为最终情况是市场业务的净利息收入(NII)在这里可能会保持相当稳定。如果第 4 季度降息,它甚至可能会有所下降,但我猜测它会保持持平至小幅下降。绝大部分的增长都将来自全球银行等银行账簿。
P10858:25
Matt O'ConnorManaging Director, Deutsche Bank
Okay. Yeah, that number would be helpful. I think on a year-over-year basis, I would think it's up just given it was going up throughout last year.
好的,那个数据会很有帮助。我想如果按同比来看,鉴于去年全年它一直在上升,我原本以为今年同比也会是上升的。
P10958:33
Alastair BorthwickEVP and CFO
Well, year-over-year it'll be up because we've put more balance sheet into the business. We can sort of see that. I'm just saying if you were to look at first quarter, second quarter, kind of expect a similar kind of number in third and fourth.
嗯,按同比来看它确实会上升,因为我们向该业务投入了更多的资产负债表资源,这一点是可以看出来的。我只是说,如果你看第 1 季度和第 2 季度的水平,预计第 3 季度和第 4 季度也会是差不多的数字。
P11058:45
Mm-hmm. Okay.
嗯,好的。
P11158:45
We don't normally provide the guidance ex Global Markets because there's lots of moving pieces that go backwards and forwards, and there's a lot of loans in markets. It gets a little confusing when we strip that out sometimes. We have to think about the presentation there. Bottom line is markets NII I think will be flattish, could be slightly down with a rate hike, but that's not the driver of second half performance of NII.
我们通常不提供剔除全球市场业务后的指引,因为其中有很多来回变动的因素,而且市场业务中也有大量贷款,把它们剥离出来有时反而会让人产生困惑,我们需要考虑如何更好地呈现。归根结底,我认为市场业务的净利息收入(NII)将保持基本持平,如果加息则可能会小幅下降,但它并不是下半年净利息收入(NII)表现的驱动因素。
P11259:13
Matt O'ConnorManaging Director, Deutsche Bank
Okay. That's helpful. Longer term, you talked about NIM grinding higher, and I know this was a while ago, but you talked about a two-three or a two-four NIM, but obviously the balance sheet's a lot bigger. There's been some mix shift. Just any updated thoughts on the NIM over time?
好的,这很有帮助。从更长远来看,你们谈到净息差(NIM)将稳步爬升,我知道这是前段时间提的了,当时你们谈到 2.3% 或 2.4% 的净息差(NIM),但显然现在资产负债表规模大了很多,业务结构也有所变化。请问关于净息差(NIM)随时间推移的走势,你们有什么更新的看法吗?
P11359:32
Alastair BorthwickEVP and CFO
Well, we still feel good about that 230 number that we're aiming for. I think when we started, we said it would be two to three years. We're probably inside a couple of years now to get there just based on the progress that we've made. One of the things that's just interesting over there is because we've grown the markets business, which is quite low net interest yield, that has suppressed the overall, if you like. The banking net interest yields have been quite encouraging over the course of the past couple of years. It's been a conscious choice to invest in markets. That's obviously been a good decision, particularly this quarter with the markets businesses up as much as they are. It's less about net interest yield and more about net interest income. At the margin, we're going to get the net interest yield.
我们对正在追求的 230 个基点(2.30%)这一目标依然感觉良好。我想当我们最初提出时,我们说需要 2 到 3 年时间。根据我们已经取得的进展,现在距离实现这一目标可能已经在 2 年以内了。其中有一点很有意思:因为我们扩大了净利息收益率相当低的市场业务,这在一定程度上压低了整体净利息收益率。而在过去几年里,银行账簿的净利息收益率表现其实相当令人鼓舞。投资于市场业务是我们有意识作出的选择,而且这显然是一个很好的决定,尤其是在本季度市场业务实现如此大幅增长的情况下。因此,关键不在于净利息收益率,而更多在于净利息收入(NII)。在边际上,我们最终会实现那个净利息收益率目标。
P1141:00:25
We know that. We're still confident. We're still on track. We'll get to that 230, and we're a year closer now.
我们清楚这一点,我们依然充满信心,依然按计划推进。我们会达到 230 个基点,而且现在距离目标又近了 1 年。
P1151:00:33
Matt O'ConnorManaging Director, Deutsche Bank
Okay. Thank you.
好的,谢谢。
P1161:00:38
Operator
Thank you. There are no further questions in queue. I'd be happy to return the call to Brian Moynihan.
谢谢。排队中已没有更多问题。我很乐意将电话会交还给 Brian Moynihan。
P1171:00:45
Brian MoynihanChairman and CEO
I thank all of you for joining us. The consistency is a key as you look across all our metrics in every area, whether it's NII, fees, et cetera. The second thing is to keep in mind that the revenue growth is strong but also very diversified across lots of different businesses, lots of different outcomes. The third to keep in mind is that the credit costs in the company have flattened out at very strong historical levels, and we continue to feel good about the delinquencies and everything that we show you as getting better. If you think about all that, we gave you guidance that we're at the top end of a range in operating leverage, all that backs into a strong second half ahead of us. When you think about the atmosphere we operate in, it's a constructive environment.
感谢大家参加我们的电话会。当你审视我们在各个领域的所有指标时,无论是净利息收入(NII)、费用收入还是其他方面,稳定性都是关键所在。第 2 点需要记住的是,我们的营收增长不仅强劲,而且在众多不同业务和不同成果之间高度多元化。第 3 点需要记住的是,公司的信贷成本已在非常强劲的历史水平上企稳,而且随着我们向大家展示的逾期率等各项指标持续向好,我们对此继续保持良好感觉。如果你综合考虑以上所有因素,再加上我们给出的处于区间上限的经营杠杆指引,这一切都支撑着我们在下半年继续交出强劲表现。当你审视我们所处的经营氛围时,这是一个有利的宏观环境。
P1181:01:36
Full pipelines in the markets business, strong investor demand for debt and equity, commercial lending strengthening and continue broadening out. We continue to see strong consumer spending activity, which at the end of the day shores up the U.S. economy. Our company is well-positioned to be a part of all that growth, and we look forward to talking to you next time. Thank you.
市场业务的项目储备饱满,投资者对债券和股票的需求强劲,商业贷款持续走强并不断拓宽覆盖面。我们继续看到强劲的消费者支出活动,这归根结底支撑着美国经济。我们公司已做好充分准备,积极参与到所有这些增长之中,期待下次再与大家交流。谢谢。
P1191:02:03
Operator
Thank you. This brings us to the end of today's meeting. We appreciate your time and participation. You may now disconnect.
谢谢。今天的会议到此结束。感谢您的时间和参与,您现在可以挂断电话了。