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NASDAQ 跟踪中 报表币种 USD · 财年截至 11 月 下次财报 2026-12-10(FY2026Q4) ⚖ 专题对比 · 推理时代算力分流
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总览/博通/财报分析/FY2026Q2/逐字稿

FY2026Q2 电话会逐字稿

2026-06-03 来源:谷歌财经 / Quartr 93 段 · 17 位发言人 33 段被报告引用FY2026Q2 季度页 →电话会深度解析 →
译文 93/93 段 · 引用以英文原文为准

发言人

点击某位发言人,只突出显示其发言;再次点击恢复
姓名职位机构段落
Hock TanPresident and CEOBroadcom Inc35
Operator16
Kirsten SpearsCFOBroadcom Inc9
Ji YooHead of Investor RelationsBroadcom Inc3
Harlan SurAnalystJPMorgan5
Ross SeymoreAnalystDeutsche Bank3
Ben ReitzesAnalystMelius3
Timothy ArcuriAnalystUBS3
Edward SnyderAnalystCharter Equity Research3
Blayne CurtisAnalystJefferies2
Stacy RasgonAnalystBernstein Research2
Tom O'MalleyAnalystBarclays2
Joe MooreAnalystMorgan Stanley2
Joshua BuchalterAnalystTD Cowen2
Jim SchneiderAnalystGoldman Sachs1
C.J. MuseAnalystCantor Fitzgerald1
Atif MalikAnalystCiti1

● 公司管理层 / 主持人 ● 外部分析师

P00100:00
Operator
Welcome to Broadcom Inc.'s second quarter fiscal year 2026 financial results conference call. At this time, for opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn the call over to Ji Yoo, Head of Investor Relations of Broadcom Inc.
欢迎参加博通公司 2026 财年第二季度财务业绩电话会。现在,我将把电话交给博通公司投资者关系主管 Ji Yoo 做开场致辞和介绍。
P00200:18
Ji YooHead of Investor Relations
Thank you, operator. Good afternoon, everyone. Joining me on today's call are Hock Tan, President and CEO, Charlie Kawwas, President, Semiconductor Solutions Group, and Ram Velaga, President, Infrastructure Software Group. Also joining is Kirsten Spears, Chief Financial Officer. As we announced, Kirsten will be retiring June 12th, and today we have joining us our incoming Chief Financial Officer, Amie Thuener. Thank you, Kirsten, for your leadership over the past 12 years. Broadcom distributed a press release and financial tables after the market closed, describing our financial performance for the second quarter fiscal year 2026. If you did not receive a copy, you may obtain the information from the investor section of Broadcom's website at broadcom.com. This conference call is being webcast live, and an audio replay of the call can be accessed for one year through the investor section of Broadcom's website.
谢谢主持人。大家下午好。今天与我一同参加电话会的有总裁兼首席执行官 Hock Tan、半导体解决方案集团总裁 Charlie Kawwas,以及基础设施软件集团总裁 Ram Velaga。首席财务官 Kirsten Spears 也一同参会。正如我们此前宣布的,Kirsten 将于 6 月 12 日退休,今天即将上任的首席财务官 Amie Thuener 也加入了我们的会议。感谢 Kirsten 在过去 12 年里的卓越领导。博通在盘后发布了新闻稿和财务表格,阐述了我们 2026 财年第二季度的财务表现。如果您尚未收到副本,可以从博通网站 broadcom.com 的投资者专区获取相关信息。本次电话会正在进行网络直播,电话会的音频回放可在 1 年内通过博通网站的投资者专区收听。
P00301:28
During the prepared comments, Hock and Kirsten will be providing details of our second quarter fiscal year 2026 results, guidance for our third quarter fiscal year 2026, as well as commentary regarding the business environment. We'll take questions after the end of our prepared comments. Please refer to our press release today and our recent filings with the SEC for information on risk factors that could cause our actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements made on this call. In addition to US GAAP reporting, Broadcom reports certain financial measures on a non-GAAP basis. A reconciliation between GAAP and non-GAAP measures, to the extent possible, is included in the tables attached to today's press release. Comments made during today's call will primarily refer to our non-GAAP financial results. I will now turn the call over to Hock.
在管理层陈述环节,Hock 和 Kirsten 将详细介绍我们 2026 财年第二季度的业绩、2026 财年第三季度的指引,以及对业务环境的评论。我们将在管理层陈述结束后回答提问。请参阅我们今天发布的新闻稿以及近期向美国证券交易委员会(SEC)提交的文件,了解可能导致实际结果与本次电话会所作前瞻性陈述存在重大差异的风险因素。除美国通用会计准则(US GAAP)报告外,博通还按非通用会计准则(non-GAAP)报告部分财务指标。今天新闻稿所附表格中在可行范围内包含了 GAAP 与 non-GAAP 指标之间的调节表。今天电话会上的评论将主要基于我们的 non-GAAP 财务业绩。现在我将电话交给 Hock。
P00402:29
Hock TanPresident and CEO
Thank you, Ji. Thank you, everyone, for joining today. In our fiscal Q2 2026, total revenue reached a record $22.2 billion, up 48% year-on-year, above our guidance on strength in AI semiconductors. Q2 operating margin was a record 67%, and adjusted EBITDA was a record 69% of revenue, which was above our guidance. Even as our revenue scales up massively, driven by AI, our operating and EBITDA margins remain strong and stable. Turning to semiconductors, Q2 revenue was a record $15 billion, as I said before, as we grew 79% year-on-year.
谢谢 Ji。感谢各位今天参会。在我们的 2026 财年第二季度,总营收达到创纪录的 222 亿美元,同比增长 48%,凭借 AI 半导体的强劲表现超出我们的指引。第二季度营业利润率达到创纪录的 67%,调整后 EBITDA 占营收比例达到创纪录的 69%,同样超出我们的指引。即便我们的营收在 AI 驱动下大规模扩张,我们的营业利润率和 EBITDA 利润率依然保持强劲且稳定。再看半导体业务,正如我之前所说,第二季度营收达到创纪录的 150 亿美元,同比增长 79%。
P00504:09
Driving this growth was AI semiconductor revenue at a record $10.8 billion, up 143% year-on-year and above our outlook. Networking represented almost 40% of our Q2 AI revenue. Demand for XPUs and networking is simply insatiable. During the quarter, bookings for AI semiconductors were over $30 billion against the $10.8 billion we shipped. In the second half of 2026, we expect AI semiconductor revenue to double from the first half we shipped this year. Consistent with this trend, in Q3, we expect AI semiconductor revenue to accelerate to $16 billion, up over 200% year-on-year. For the full year 2026, we expect to achieve AI semiconductor revenue of $56 billion, up approximately 180% from fiscal 2025. We expect this momentum to continue into fiscal year 2027 and reiterate our AI semiconductor revenue guidance to be in excess of $100 billion.
推动这一增长的是 AI 半导体营收达到创纪录的 108 亿美元,同比增长 143%,超出我们的展望。网络业务占我们第二季度 AI 营收的近 40%。市场对 XPU 和网络产品的需求简直难以满足。本季度,AI 半导体的新签订单超过 300 亿美元,而我们当季的出货额为 108 亿美元。在 2026 财年下半年,我们预计 AI 半导体营收将较今年上半年的出货规模翻倍。顺应这一趋势,我们预计第三季度 AI 半导体营收将加速增长至 160 亿美元,同比增长超过 200%。对于 2026 财年全年,我们预计将实现 560 亿美元的 AI 半导体营收,较 2025 财年增长约 180%。我们预计这一势头将延续至 2027 财年,并重申我们的 AI 半导体营收指引将超过 1,000 亿美元。
P00605:58
We expect AI semiconductor revenue growth to continue in fiscal 2028, based on the following initiatives with our six core customers. As you are aware, with Google, we announced in April that we entered into a long-term agreement to develop and supply multiple generations of TPUs and AI networking. Our relationship continues to be strategic and very substantial as we continue to deliver vastly superior technology and execution compared to other alternatives. This ability to provide differentiated value to Google ensures that our business will sustain and grow for the foreseeable future. For Anthropic, as you know, for 2026, we are providing access to Broadcom TPU-based compute of over one gigawatts. In April, we entered into an agreement to enable Anthropic to access another five gigawatts of next-generation TPU-based compute beginning in 2027. For OpenAI, we have delivered silicon, and we are on track for production late 2026.
基于我们与 6 家核心客户推进的以下举措,我们预计 AI 半导体营收在 2028 财年将继续增长。如各位所知,在谷歌方面,我们在 4 月宣布签署了一项长期协议,以开发和供应多代 TPU 及 AI 网络产品。随着我们相比其他替代方案持续交付显著领先的技术与执行力,我们的合作关系依然具有战略意义且规模庞大。这种为谷歌提供差异化价值的能力,确保了我们的业务在可预见的未来得以持续并增长。在 Anthropic 方面,如各位所知,2026 年我们正在为其提供超过 1 吉瓦的博通 TPU 算力。今年 4 月,我们签署了一项协议,使 Anthropic 从 2027 年开始能够获得另外 5 吉瓦的下一代 TPU 算力。在 OpenAI 方面,我们已经交付了芯片样品,并正按计划推进于 2026 年底投入量产。
P00707:31
We have a contractual commitment to deploy 1.3 gigawatts in 2027 as part of the larger 10 gigawatts that by 2029 agreement we announced last year. For Meta, in April, we announced a partnership to deliver multiple generations of MTIA XPUs. Under this agreement, we expect to deploy 3 gigawatts through the end of 2028. The initial order for 1 gigawatt, which includes XPUs and our networking, has been received and will start delivery in the second half of 2027. For our other two customers, we expect shipments to begin late 2026 and accelerate into 2027. To date, we have received purchase orders totaling $6 billion. While we have significant IP and execution leadership in XPUs, networking is key to building scalable XPU and GPU clusters. Here in networking, we have at least one generation of technology and product leadership.
作为我们去年宣布的到 2029 年部署 10 吉瓦更大规模协议的一部分,我们已作出在 2027 年部署 1.3 吉瓦的合同承诺。在 Meta 方面,我们在 4 月宣布建立合作伙伴关系,以交付多代 MTIA XPU。根据该协议,我们预计到 2028 年底将部署 3 吉瓦。首笔 1 吉瓦的订单(包含 XPU 和我们的网络产品)已经收到,并将于 2027 年下半年开始交付。对于我们的另外 2 家客户,我们预计出货将于 2026 年底开始,并在 2027 年加速。截至目前,我们已收到总计 60 亿美元的采购订单。虽然我们在 XPU 领域拥有显著的知识产权(IP)和执行领先优势,但网络才是构建可扩展 XPU 和 GPU 集群的关键。在网络领域,我们拥有至少领先一代的技术和产品优势。
P00809:01
For scale up within racks, we enable direct attached copper based on our industry-leading 200G and 400G SerDes, driving co-packaged copper with Ethernet and PCI Express switches. For scale out between racks, we have been shipping the industry's only 100 terabit Ethernet switch, the Tomahawk 6, for over a year. We will now be taping out our next generation 200 terabit switch this quarter. In CPOs, which is co-packaged optics, 1.6 terabit DSPs, CW and EML lasers, we are the de facto standard in the industry. To extend AI clusters across data centers, we remain the industry leader with our Jericho 3 and Jericho 4 fabric solutions, enabling the world's largest deployments at multiple hyperscalers.
在机柜内纵向扩展(scale up)方面,我们基于行业领先的 200G 和 400G SerDes 实现直连铜缆(DAC),推动以太网和 PCI Express 交换机采用共封装铜缆。在机柜间横向扩展(scale out)方面,我们已经出货行业唯一的 100T 以太网交换机 Tomahawk 6 超过 1 年时间。我们将在本季度对下一代 200T 交换机进行流片(tape out)。在共封装光学(CPO)、1.6T DSP、连续波(CW)激光器和电吸收调制激光器(EML)领域,我们是行业事实上的标准。为了将 AI 集群跨数据中心扩展,我们凭借 Jericho 3 和 Jericho 4 交换矩阵解决方案保持行业领先地位,在多家超大规模云厂商实现了全球最大规模的部署。
P00910:21
Our strategic vision is to bring together Broadcom's leading technology and investor partners with the strongest balance sheets to deliver at scale sufficient compute capacity at the lowest cost and power for the leading AI frontier labs, including Anthropic and OpenAI. To deliver this vision, we are creating the AI XPU platform with Apollo and Blackstone and other leading investors to deploy more than 20 gigawatts of compute capacity through 2028. The first tranche of this platform, valued at $35 billion, is in fact currently being launched by Apollo. Turning to non-AI semiconductors. Q2 revenue of $4.2 billion was up 6% year-on-year. Bookings during the same period exceeded $6 billion, which is a clear indication we're on a path towards a full cyclical recovery. Broadband, service storage and enterprise networking together were up, partially offset by a seasonal decline in wireless.
我们的战略愿景是将博通领先的技术与资产负债表最雄厚的投资者伙伴结合起来,以最低的成本和功耗,为包括 Anthropic 和 OpenAI 在内的领先 AI 前沿实验室规模化交付充足的算力容量。为了实现这一愿景,我们正在与 Apollo、Blackstone 及其他领先投资者共同打造 AI XPU 平台,到 2028 年部署超过 20 吉瓦的算力容量。该平台的首期项目价值 350 亿美元,目前正由 Apollo 启动。再看非 AI 半导体业务。第二季度营收为 42 亿美元,同比增长 6%。同期新签订单超过 60 亿美元,这明确表明我们正走在迈向全面周期性复苏的道路上。宽带、服务器存储和企业网络业务合计实现增长,部分被无线业务的季节性下滑所抵消。
P01011:56
Consistent with this trend in Q3, we forecast non-AI semiconductor revenue to be approximately $4.5 billion, up 12% from a year ago. In summary, we expect Q3 semiconductor revenue to be $20.5 billion, up 124% year-over-year. Let me turn to Infrastructure Software segment. Q2 software revenue of $7.2 billion was up 9% year-over-year, in line with our guidance. Bookings continue to be strong as we sustain ARR growth of 17% year-over-year. For Q3, we forecast software revenue to be approximately $8.9 billion, up 31% year-over-year. We just released VMware Cloud Foundation 9.1, focused on improving infrastructure efficiency, security, and support for enterprise AI inferencing workloads. With strong server demand globally, the deployment of VCF 9.1 for on-prem cloud computing is extremely strong, driving robust revenue growth.
顺应这一趋势,我们预计第三季度非 AI 半导体营收约为 45 亿美元,同比增长 12%。综上所述,我们预计第三季度半导体营收将达到 205 亿美元,同比增长 124%。现在谈谈基础设施软件分部。第二季度软件营收为 72 亿美元,同比增长 9%,符合我们的指引。新签订单持续强劲,年度经常性收入(ARR)保持 17% 的同比增长。对于第三季度,我们预计软件营收约为 89 亿美元,同比增长 31%。我们刚刚发布了 VMware Cloud Foundation 9.1(VCF 9.1),重点提升基础设施效率、安全性以及对企业客户 AI 推理工作负载的支持。随着全球服务器需求强劲,用于本地私有云的 VCF 9.1 部署极其强劲,推动了稳健的营收增长。
P01113:31
This release adds heterogeneous compute support across GPUs and CPU architectures, including AMD, Intel, and NVIDIA platforms, enabling enterprise cloud customers to run AI, Kubernetes, and traditional virtualized workloads on a common private cloud environment. To sum it up, for Q3 2026, we expect our consolidated revenue to grow to $29.4 billion, up 84% year-on-year. We expect operating margin to be stable at approximately 67% of revenue, and adjusted EBITDA to be at approximately 68% of revenue. With that, let me turn the call over to Kirsten.
此次发布的版本增加了跨 GPU 和 CPU 架构(包括 AMD、英特尔和英伟达平台)的异构算力支持,使企业云客户能够在统一的私有云环境上运行 AI、Kubernetes 和传统虚拟化工作负载。总而言之,对于 2026 财年第三季度,我们预计合并营收将增长至 294 亿美元,同比增长 84%。我们预计营业利润率将稳定在占营收约 67% 的水平,调整后 EBITDA 占营收比例约为 68%。下面我将把电话交给 Kirsten。
P01214:26
Kirsten SpearsCFO
Thank you, Hock. Let me now provide additional detail on our Q2 financial performance. Consolidated revenue was a record $22.2 billion for the quarter, up 48% from a year ago. Gross margin was 77.1% of revenue in the quarter, down 230 basis points year-on-year, as semiconductor became a larger proportion of our product mix. Consolidated operating expenses were $2.2 billion, of which $1.6 billion was R&D. Q2 operating income was a record $14.9 billion, up 52% from a year ago. Note that even with the decline in gross margin, operating margin increased 200 basis points year-over-year to 67.3% as operating expenses remained relatively flat. Adjusted EBITDA of $15.2 billion or 69% of revenue was above our guidance of 68%. A review of the P&L for our two segments. Starting with semiconductors.
谢谢 Hock。现在我来更详细地介绍我们第二季度的财务表现。本季度合并营收达到创纪录的 222 亿美元,同比增长 48%。本季度毛利率为营收的 77.1%,同比下降 230 个基点,原因是半导体在我们的产品组合中占比上升。合并营业费用为 22 亿美元,其中研发费用为 16 亿美元。第二季度营业利润达到创纪录的 149 亿美元,同比增长 52%。请注意,尽管毛利率有所下降,但由于营业费用保持相对持平,营业利润率同比提升了 200 个基点至 67.3%。调整后 EBITDA 为 152 亿美元,占营收的 69%,高于我们 68% 的指引。下面回顾我们两个分部的损益表,首先从半导体业务开始。
P01315:31
Revenue for our Semiconductor Solutions segment was a record $15 billion with growth accelerating to 79% year-on-year driven by AI. Semiconductor revenue represented 68% of total revenue in the quarter, and AI semiconductor revenue represented 49% of total revenue. Gross margin for our Semiconductor Solutions segment was approximately 70%. Operating expenses of $1.2 billion reflected increased investment in R&D for leading-edge AI semiconductors and represented 8% of revenue. Semiconductor operating margin of 62% was up 460 basis points year-on-year, reflecting our strong operating leverage. Now moving on to Infrastructure Software. Revenue for Infrastructure Software of $7.2 billion was up 9% year-on-year and represented 32% of revenue. Gross margin for Infrastructure Software was 93% in the quarter, and operating expenses were $1 billion in the quarter. Q2 software operating margin was up 310 basis points year-on-year to approximately 79%.
在 AI 驱动下,我们的半导体解决方案分部营收达到创纪录的 150 亿美元,同比增速加快至 79%。本季度半导体营收占总营收的 68%,AI 半导体营收占总营收的 49%。半导体解决方案分部的毛利率约为 70%。营业费用为 12 亿美元,反映了对前沿 AI 半导体研发投入的增加,占营收的 8%。半导体营业利润率为 62%,同比提升 460 个基点,体现了我们强劲的经营杠杆。接下来看基础设施软件业务。基础设施软件营收为 72 亿美元,同比增长 9%,占总营收的 32%。本季度基础设施软件毛利率为 93%,营业费用为 10 亿美元。第二季度软件营业利润率同比提升 310 个基点至约 79%。
P01416:43
Moving on to cash flow. Free cash flow in the quarter was a record $10.3 billion and represented 46% of revenue. We spent $231 million on capital expenditures. We ended the second quarter with $19.6 billion of cash compared to $14.2 billion in the prior quarter. We ended the second quarter with inventory of $4.33 billion as we continued to secure supply to support strong AI demand. Our days of inventory on hand were 86 days in Q2 compared to 68 days in Q1 in anticipation of accelerating AI semiconductor growth in the second half of the year. Turning to capital allocation. In Q2, we paid stockholders $3.1 billion of cash dividends based on a quarterly common stock cash dividend of $0.65 per share. Now moving to guidance. Our guidance for Q3 is for consolidated revenue of $29.4 billion, up 84% year-over-year.
接下来看现金流。本季度自由现金流达到创纪录的 103 亿美元,占营收的 46%。我们在资本开支上投入了 2.31 亿美元。第二季度末我们的现金为 196 亿美元,而上一季度末为 142 亿美元。第二季度末我们的存货为 43.3 亿美元,因为我们持续锁定供应以支持强劲的 AI 需求。鉴于下半年 AI 半导体增长将加速,我们第二季度的在手存货周转天数为 86 天,而第一季度为 68 天。再看资本配置。在第二季度,基于每股 0.65 美元的季度普通股现金股息,我们向股东支付了 31 亿美元的现金股息。现在谈谈业绩指引。我们对第三季度的指引是合并营收达到 294 亿美元,同比增长 84%。
P01517:48
We forecast semiconductor revenue of approximately $20.5 billion, up 124% year-on-year. Within this, we expect Q3 AI semiconductor revenue of $16 billion, up over 200% year-on-year. We expect Q3 infrastructure software revenue of approximately $8.9 billion, up 31% year-on-year. Moving on to margins.
我们预计半导体营收约为 205 亿美元,同比增长 124%。其中,我们预计第三季度 AI 半导体营收为 160 亿美元,同比增长超过 200%。我们预计第三季度基础设施软件营收约为 89 亿美元,同比增长 31%。接下来看利润率。
P01618:17
As the proportion of AI revenue significantly grows in Q3, we expect Q3 consolidated gross margin to be down to approximately 74%. This decline in gross margin does not represent a structural change in semiconductor margin. Rather, it reflects product mix between semiconductors and infrastructure software. Regardless of the impact to gross margin, we expect Q3 operating margin to be 67%, which is flat quarter-over-quarter, demonstrating our strong operating leverage. We highly recommend that investors model semiconductor and infrastructure software margins separately to properly reflect the impact of changes in total revenue mix going forward. We expect the non-GAAP tax rate for Q3 in fiscal year 2026 to be approximately 16% due to the impact of the global minimum tax and the geographic mix of income compared to that of fiscal year 2025.
随着第三季度 AI 营收占比显著上升,我们预计第三季度合并毛利率将降至约 74%。毛利率的这一环比下降并不代表半导体利润率发生了结构性变化,而是反映了半导体与基础设施软件之间的产品组合变化。无论毛利率受到何种影响,我们预计第三季度营业利润率仍将保持在 67%,与上季度持平,彰显出我们强劲的经营杠杆。我们强烈建议投资者今后分别对半导体和基础设施软件的利润率进行建模,以准确反映总营收组合变化带来的影响。由于全球最低税率的影响以及收入地域结构与 2025 财年相比的变化,我们预计 2026 财年第三季度的 non-GAAP 有效税率约为 16%。
P01719:20
In Q3, we expect the non-GAAP diluted share count to be approximately 4.94 billion shares, excluding the impact of potential share repurchases. That concludes my prepared remarks. Operator, please open up the call for questions.
在第三季度,不考虑潜在股票回购的影响,我们预计 non-GAAP 摊薄后股数约为 49.4 亿股。我的管理层陈述到此结束。主持人,请开放提问环节。
问答环节
P01819:36
Operator
Thank you. To ask a question, you will need to press star one one on your telephone. To withdraw your question, press star one one again. Due to time restraints, we ask that you please limit yourself to one question. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. Our first question will come from the line of Harlan Sur with J.P. Morgan. Your line is open.
谢谢。如需提问,请按电话上的星号键加 1 1。如需撤回提问,请再次按星号键加 1 1。由于时间有限,请每位提问者仅限提 1 个问题。请稍候,我们正在汇总问答名单。我们的第一个问题来自摩根大通的 Harlan Sur。您的线路已接通。
P01920:04
Harlan SurAnalyst, JPMorgan
Good afternoon. Thank you for taking my question. Thanks for all your support, Kirsten and Ji Yoo. Welcome to the team. First, just a quick housekeeping item, Hock. On this fiscal year, AI sort of 2x growth, second half over first half. That would put AI revenues over $60 billion with sequential growth in fiscal Q4. You gave us this $56 billion number, which is only 1.5x, half over half growth with Q4 AI actually being down sequentially. If you could just help us square the numbers there. For my real question, back in December of last year, you talked about an AI backlog next 18 months, $73 billion. Market sort of took that number, spread that linearly over six quarters. We know that the backlog is always more front-loaded over the first four quarters, right?
下午好。感谢接受我的提问。感谢 Kirsten 和 Ji Yoo 一直以来的支持,也欢迎新成员加入团队。Hock,首先请教一个数据核对问题。关于本财年 AI 业务下半年较上半年增长 2 倍(即翻番)的说法:如果第四季度财季环比继续增长,那全年 AI 营收应该会超过 600 亿美元。但您给出的全年数字是 560 亿美元,这意味着下半年较上半年只增长 1.5 倍,且第四季度 AI 营收环比反而会下降。能否帮我们理顺一下这些数字?至于我的核心问题,去年 12 月您曾提到未来 18 个月的 AI 积压订单为 730 亿美元。市场当时大致将这个数字在 6 个季度里做了线性平均分摊。但我们知道积压订单通常在前 4 个季度会更集中交付,对吧?
P02020:58
Sure enough, you're going to deliver around 80% or more of that backlog in this fiscal year or first four quarters. Just given the strength of all your programs, the broadening of the customer base, accelerating year-over-year trends in your AI shipments, all the multi-gigawatt partnerships that you just articulated today, most of it which is set to start to fire next year. Is it fair to assume that your 18-month AI backlog second half of this year through all of fiscal 2027 sits at $200 billion or better?
果不其然,你们在本财年(即前 4 个季度)就将交付该积压订单的约 80% 甚至更多。考虑到你们所有项目的强劲表现、客户群体的拓宽、AI 出货量同比增速的加快,以及您今天刚刚阐述的所有数吉瓦级合作伙伴关系(其中大部分将于明年开始发力),如果我们假设从今年下半年到整个 2027 财年的 18 个月 AI 积压订单目前已达到 2,000 亿美元或更高,这样合理吗?
P02121:40
Hock TanPresident and CEO
That's a very complicated set of number questions. To begin with, let's start with 2026. Doing a math, basically 2x to 2x. The first half, we ship in total AI revenue, something in the range of $19 billion, if you want to be precise. If you do what I indicate and 2x that in the second half, you get to pretty much in the range of what we're talking about, which is around $56 billion, Harlan.
这是一组相当复杂的数字问题。首先,让我们从 2026 财年说起。算一下账,基本上就是翻 2 倍。今年上半年,我们的 AI 总营收出货量如果精确来看,大约在 190 亿美元左右。如果按照我所说的,下半年在此基础上翻 2 倍(即乘以 2),那么全年加起来就正好落在我们所说的范围内,也就是大约 560 亿美元左右,Harlan。
P02222:18
Harlan SurAnalyst, JPMorgan
Okay.
好的。
P02322:18
Hock TanPresident and CEO
That set of numbers does tie up very well. Your bigger question on the second half, which you're going to need a very detailed analysis of is, yeah, we will keep the momentum going as we expect to see in 2027. What we will see in 2027 is continued growth of the level we're talking about. If you drive on that basis of what we're seeing here, almost 2x, in the range of 2x, what 2026 will be, I think you will easily see that 2027 will exceed very easily $100 billion in 2027, which is pretty much what we indicated last quarter. We are continuing to say that it will be over $100 billion in 2027.
所以这组数字是完全吻合的。至于你关于下半年的更大问题,那需要非常详细的分析——是的,我们将保持这一势头,正如我们预计在 2027 财年将看到的那样。我们在 2027 财年将看到的是保持目前所谈论的这种增长水平。如果基于我们目前看到的趋势——也就是接近翻 2 倍、在 2026 财年基础上翻约 2 倍的水平来推算,我想你会很容易看到 2027 财年将轻而易举地超过 1,000 亿美元,这与我们上季度所指出的基本一致。我们继续表示,2027 财年将超过 1,000 亿美元。
P02423:25
Harlan SurAnalyst, JPMorgan
Okay.
明白了。
P02523:25
Hock TanPresident and CEO
In that sense, if anything else, it might be based on what we're doing very much on track, if not stronger. We're not trying to guide you every quarter what 2027 would be like. We basically say it continues to be in excess of $100 billion in 2027. It is on a same trajectory as we are seeing in the back half of 2026.
从这个意义上说,基于我们目前推进的情况,实际进展完全符合预期,甚至可能更强。但我们不打算每个季度都去更新 2027 财年的具体指引。我们基本上就是表明,2027 财年将继续超过 1,000 亿美元,而且增长轨迹与我们在 2026 财年下半年所看到的轨迹一致。
P02623:52
Harlan SurAnalyst, JPMorgan
Got it. Okay. Thank you, Hock.
明白了。好的,谢谢你,Hock。
P02723:56
Operator
One moment for our next question. That will come from the line of Blayne Curtis with Jefferies. Your line is open.
请稍候,我们接听下一个问题。下一个问题来自 Jefferies 的 Blayne Curtis。您的线路已接通。
P02824:04
Blayne CurtisAnalyst, Jefferies
Hey, good afternoon. Thanks for taking my question. Hock, I wanted to ask you, interquarter, you had that 8-K with the long-term agreement with Google. Obviously, you're probably not going to tell me what the total value is there. I think there's a lot of concern about share within that customer. I was just curious, now that you have this agreement, maybe you could speak to a little bit more in terms of your confidence. If there's upside to that customer, is it a fixed amount or is there share? Is there any way you can add some color to that agreement that came out?
嗨,下午好。感谢接受我的提问。Hock,我想请教一下,在本季度期间,你们提交了一份关于与谷歌签署长期协议的 8-K 文件。显然您可能不会告诉我那份协议的总金额是多少。但我认为市场非常关注你们在该客户内部的份额情况。我只是好奇,既然现在签下了这份协议,您能否多谈谈您的信心?在该客户那里是否还有上行空间?协议规定的是固定金额还是按份额计算?能否为这份新披露的协议补充一些细节?
P02924:37
Hock TanPresident and CEO
Well, it's a very strong agreement. It basically reflects the strength of the partnership we have, simply because of the products we do, the multi-general products, and the intellectual property we've deployed into this whole program. To answer your question specifically, it's a commitment that is very substantial in $. Very substantial amount of $. Now, we also accept the fact that while we like to win every design in that program, we also accept the fact that given the growth of consumption and development and consumption of AI compute, even by our partner, Google, that we fully expect that there'll be some diversity of sources for them. Our commitment from them is a very substantial $ amount.
这是一份非常强有力的协议。它基本上反映了我们双方合作伙伴关系的稳固程度,原因很简单,就在于我们所打造的产品、多代演进的产品,以及我们投入到整个项目中的知识产权(IP)。具体回答你的问题:这是一项在美元金额上非常庞大的承诺,美元金额极其可观。当然,虽然我们希望赢下该项目中的每一款设计,但我们也接受这样一个事实:鉴于 AI 算力开发与消耗量的快速增长,即便是我们的合作伙伴谷歌,我们也完全理解他们会在一定程度上实现供应来源的多元化。但他们对我们的承诺是一个非常庞大的美元金额。
P03025:53
Blayne CurtisAnalyst, Jefferies
Thank you.
谢谢。
P03125:56
Operator
One moment for our next question. That will come from the line of Ross Seymore with Deutsche Bank. Your line is open.
请稍候,我们接听下一个问题。下一个问题来自德意志银行的 Ross Seymore。您的线路已接通。
P03226:05
Ross SeymoreAnalyst, Deutsche Bank
Hi. Thanks for letting me ask the question, and congrats to both Kirsten and Amie. A question on the gross margin side of things. I know, Kirsten, you talked about it going down due to the mix dynamics within the semis versus the software side, but given the strength on the software side in the quarter, it seems like the gross margin's falling a little bit harder. Behind the scenes, can you just talk a little bit about what the drivers within semis are? Is that the XPU versus the networking side of things? Is that trend likely to continue next year? Are there rack scale versus chip scale? All those sorts of dynamics, any color you could give on that would be helpful.
你好。感谢让我提问,并祝贺 Kirsten 和 Amie。我想提一个关于毛利率的问题。Kirsten,我知道您提到毛利率下降是由于半导体与软件业务之间的结构变化,但考虑到本季度软件业务表现也很强劲,毛利率的跌幅似乎比预想的更大一些。在表象背后,您能否谈谈半导体业务内部的驱动因素是什么?是因为 XPU 与网络业务之间的结构变化吗?这一趋势明年是否还会延续?另外是否存在机柜级(rack scale)与芯片级(chip scale)出货模式的影响?如果能就这些动态提供一些细节,将非常有帮助。
P03326:40
Kirsten SpearsCFO
Yes, certainly. As our semiconductor business grows, just to reiterate, on a consolidated basis relative to our software business, you're going to have a decline in margins, right? A bit. You'll have compression. Remember that it's accretive because we have strong operating leverage, right? Our operating margins will stand up a bit over time to that. Within semiconductors, we've always said our ASICs, TPU, some of the wireless business has lower margins. As the TPU continue to accelerate, there'll be pressure overall on margins. The connectivity side, the AI networking side of the business, has very rich margins. It'll offset it somewhat as we go.
好的,当然可以。随着我们半导体业务的增长,我再重申一下,在合并报表层面上,由于半导体相对于软件业务的占比上升,毛利率肯定会有所下降,对吧?会有一定的压缩。但请记住,这对利润额是有增益的,因为我们拥有很强的经营杠杆,随着时间推移,我们的营业利润率能够经受住这种考验。在半导体业务内部,我们一直表示,我们的定制 ASIC、TPU 以及部分无线业务的毛利率相对较低。因此随着 TPU 继续加速放量,整体毛利率会面临一定压力。不过,连接业务也就是 AI 网络业务的毛利率非常丰厚,随着业务推进,它会在一定程度上起到抵消作用。
P03427:20
Hock TanPresident and CEO
I mean, Ross, as Kirsten said in her remarks, structurally, the semiconductor margins remains very stable and very solid. It's the mix, particularly the mix between software and non-AI to the very highly, rapidly growing AI semiconductor that is just diluting gross margin.
我是说,Ross,正如 Kirsten 在陈述中所讲的,从结构上看,半导体业务的利润率依然非常稳定、非常扎实。造成毛利率摊薄的纯粹是产品组合,特别是软件和非 AI 业务与极高速增长的 AI 半导体业务之间的占比变化。
P03527:54
Ross SeymoreAnalyst, Deutsche Bank
The rack versus chip side of things, is that all clarified now?
那么机柜级与芯片级出货的问题,现在都已经明确了吗?
P03828:00
Hock TanPresident and CEO
We only chips.
我们只卖芯片。
P03928:01
Kirsten SpearsCFO
Only chips.
只卖芯片。
P04028:04
Ross SeymoreAnalyst, Deutsche Bank
Perfect. Thank you.
太好了。谢谢。
P04128:06
Operator
One moment for our next question. That will come from the line of Ben Reitzes with Melius. Your line is open.
请稍候,我们接听下一个问题。下一个问题来自 Melius 的 Ben Reitzes。您的线路已接通。
P04228:17
Ben ReitzesAnalyst, Melius
Yeah. Hey, guys. Thanks. Appreciate it. I wanted to ask about 2027, Hock. With regard to, previously you've talked about the TAM being 10 to 20 and whatnot. It seems that one of your competitors talked recently about the TAM per gigawatt going up a lot as we go throughout the decade. It seems it wasn't just due to infrastructure, it was due to the compute and networking components and other things. Perhaps you're familiar with that comment that Jensen made where the overall infrastructure's going from something around 50 something towards 100, and the compute content going way up. Are you seeing the same thing as you go throughout the long term?
好的,大家好,非常感谢。Hock,我想请教关于 2027 年的问题。之前您曾谈到每吉瓦的潜在市场规模(TAM)大约在 100 亿到 200 亿美元左右。但最近你们的一位竞争对手提到,在本十年接下来的时间里,每吉瓦对应的 TAM 将大幅上升。而且这似乎不仅是因为基础设施本身,还因为计算、网络组件和其他部分的价值量提升。您可能也听到了 Jensen(黄仁勋)的那个说法,即每吉瓦整体基础设施的投入正从 500 多亿美元向 1,000 亿美元迈进,其中计算部分的价值量大幅上升。从长期来看,您是否也看到了同样的趋势?
P04329:07
Is that potentially being an accelerator to what you've already outlined, in terms of your TAM per gigawatt, and how are you thinking about that? Thanks a lot.
在每吉瓦 TAM 方面,这是否可能成为你们已规划目标的加速器?您对此是怎么看的?非常感谢。
P04429:18
Hock TanPresident and CEO
Sure. Well, I think the accelerating part, if you talk about power, realize one thing, is the $ per gigawatt, the content $ or racks per gigawatt, is not accelerating that much because you are creating chips that each individual chips are driving higher and higher power. You're driving less chips, though the ASP of each chip is going up in price. $ per gigawatt, $ billions per gigawatt is relatively stable. The number of gigawatts will accelerate as I think some of our remarks indicate. That's what we are seeing, that the amount of gigawatts required, compute capacity as measured by number of gigawatts, is growing very fast. We're seeing that.
当然。我认为,如果从功耗的角度来谈增长加速,有一点需要认识到:每吉瓦对应的美元价值量,也就是每吉瓦中的芯片价值量或机柜数量,并没有加速增长那么多,因为你制造出来的单颗芯片功耗正变得越来越高。虽然单颗芯片的平均售价(ASP)在上涨,但每吉瓦所驱动的芯片数量变少了。因此,每吉瓦对应的数十亿美元价值量其实是相对稳定的。真正会加速增长的是吉瓦的数量,我想我们刚才的一些陈述已经体现了这一点。这正是我们所看到的趋势——以吉瓦数量衡量的算力容量需求正在极快地增长。我们正切切实实地看到这一点。
P04530:30
We are seeing that particularly to the point where for even two of our customers, we're talking about, which is Anthropic and OpenAI, for which we're creating this platform to enable them to run sufficient compute power. We're talking about capacity as measured by gigawatt power that are way ahead of what we have expected, say, six months ago. That's just these guys. We've not talked about the consumption beyond the XPU platform we have announced here from our other customers, which is Google-owned internal workloads, Meta's workloads, and the other two customers we have. Fold that in, and you're talking about gigawatts in totality. If you ask about 2027 or 2028, that will continue to grow. We expect, in fact, 2028 to be a substantial growth from what we are forecasting in 2027.
我们尤其明显地看到,即便是我们刚才谈到的 2 家客户——也就是我们正为其搭建这一算力平台以支持其运行充足算力的 Anthropic 和 OpenAI——他们以吉瓦功耗衡量的算力容量需求,也远远超出了我们比如 6 个月前的预期。而且这还只是这 2 家客户。我们还没有把今天宣布的 XPU 平台之外、来自其他客户的算力消耗算进来,也就是谷歌自身的内部工作负载、Meta 的工作负载,以及我们的另外 2 家客户。把这些全部加总起来,总共涉及的吉瓦规模是极其庞大的。如果你问到 2027 年或 2028 年,这一规模还会继续增长。事实上,我们预计 2028 年将在我们目前预测的 2027 年基础上实现大幅增长。
P04631:50
Ben ReitzesAnalyst, Melius
Thank you, Hock.
谢谢你,Hock。
P04731:54
Operator
One moment for our next question. That will come from the line of Timothy Arcuri with UBS. Your line is open.
请稍候,我们接听下一个问题。下一个问题来自瑞银(UBS)的 Timothy Arcuri。您的线路已接通。
P04832:05
Timothy ArcuriAnalyst, UBS
Thanks a lot, Hock. I wanted to ask you about supply and your ability to get incremental volume of wafers and HBM. As I look at some of your competitors, they're able to drop $20 billion out of thin air and get incremental wafer supply. I'm wondering, do you feel pretty good about if a customer comes to you, are you able to get upside in terms of wafers and HBM, and are you beginning to consider maybe using other foundries to add more optionality to your supply? Thanks a lot.
非常感谢,Hock。我想请教关于供应以及你们获取增量晶圆和高带宽内存(HBM)产能的能力。我看你们的一些竞争对手,似乎能够凭空砸下 200 亿美元就拿到增量的晶圆供应。我想知道,如果有客户找到你们,你们是否有把握在晶圆和 HBM 方面拿到超预期的增量供应?另外,你们是否开始考虑采用其他晶圆代工厂,以增加供应的灵活性?非常感谢。
P04932:38
Hock TanPresident and CEO
Getting supply is not just about dropping money, Tim, though that does work. We are very comfortable that we have been able to secure supply of the types you mentioned about for our needs 2026, 2027. Working on 2028 and 2029 right now.
Tim,获取供应可不只是靠砸钱,虽然砸钱确实管用。但我们非常有把握,我们已经为满足 2026 年和 2027 年的需求锁定了你提到的各类供应。目前我们正在着手锁定 2028 年和 2029 年的供应。
P05033:02
Timothy ArcuriAnalyst, UBS
Right. If a customer comes to you and wants incremental supply, are you able to go to your suppliers and get it the way that it seems like some of your competitors are?
明白了。那如果有客户找到你们,希望获得计划外的增量供应,你们能否像某些竞争对手那样去向供应商争取到这些增量?
P05133:10
Hock TanPresident and CEO
Customers have been coming to us incrementally over the last few months. Expect that to continue. By and large, yes.
过去几个月里,客户一直源源不断地向我们提出增量需求。我们预计这种情况还会继续。总的来说,答案是肯定的。
P05233:26
Timothy ArcuriAnalyst, UBS
Okay, Hock. Thank you.
好的,Hock。谢谢你。
P05333:29
Operator
One moment for our next question. That will come from the line of Stacy Rasgon with Bernstein Research. Your line is open.
请稍候,我们接听下一个问题。下一个问题来自 Bernstein Research 的 Stacy Rasgon。您的线路已接通。
P05433:39
Stacy RasgonAnalyst, Bernstein Research
Hi, guys. Thanks for taking my question. Hock, you gave some gigawatt shipment targets for next year for your various customers. I just want to know, are those any different? Do they contemplate any change from what you said last quarter, where I think you'd said that was close to 10 gigawatts you'd be shipping in 2027? Can you just help us shape the year? It sounded to me like you expected that to be more back-half loaded in 2027, given the shape of the ramps. Most importantly, is there any change that is it more gigawatts or less gigawatts, or the same gigawatts versus what you were suggesting last quarter?
大家好,感谢接受我的提问。Hock,您刚才针对不同客户给出了一些明年的吉瓦级出货目标。我只是想确认一下,这些数字与您上季度所说的相比有没有变化?我记得您上季度提到的 2027 年总出货量接近 10 吉瓦。另外,您能否帮我们描绘一下明年的季度节奏?听起来考虑到产能爬坡的节奏,您似乎预计 2027 年的出货会更集中在下半年。最重要的是,与您上季度暗示的口径相比,这次的总吉瓦数是变多了、变少了,还是保持不变?
P05534:19
Hock TanPresident and CEO
Well, good question. Yeah. For 2027, we indicated about 10 gigawatts shipment in 2027. That's still very much intact. We're planning to ship 10 gigawatts in 2027, and nothing has changed. Back-half loaded to that extent, yes, and which really provides an interesting trajectory into 2028 with this back-half trajectory. 2028, we expect a lot more gigawatts.
好问题。是的,对于 2027 年,我们此前曾表示 2027 年的出货量约为 10 吉瓦。这一目标目前依然完全未变。我们计划在 2027 年出货 10 吉瓦,没有任何变化。至于更集中在下半年,确实如此,而这种下半年的增长轨迹也为进入 2028 年奠定了非常可观的势头。到了 2028 年,我们预计会交付多得多的吉瓦规模。
P05634:58
Stacy RasgonAnalyst, Bernstein Research
Got it. That's helpful. Thank you.
明白了,非常有帮助。谢谢。
P05735:00
Operator
One moment for our next question. That will come from the line of Jim Schneider with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.
请稍候,我们接听下一个问题。下一个问题来自高盛的 Jim Schneider。您的线路已接通。
P05835:11
Jim SchneiderAnalyst, Goldman Sachs
Good afternoon. Thanks for taking my question. I was wondering if you could comment a little bit on the profile of your networking business, Hock, as we head through fiscal 2026 and 2027, about 40% of AI revenue this quarter. Will you expect that to sort of fall back down as some of these custom ramps ramp into the end of the year into early next year, or would you sort of expect to stay at the upper end of that range? Maybe talk about when you see some of the optical and CPO revenue becoming meaningful. Thank you.
下午好,感谢接受我的提问。Hock,我想请您谈谈在 2026 财年和 2027 财年推进过程中,你们网络业务的结构走势。本季度网络业务约占 AI 营收的 40%。随着今年年底到明年年初一些定制芯片项目放量,您预计这一占比会回落,还是会保持在这一区间的上沿?另外能否谈谈光互联和共封装光学(CPO)营收何时会形成可观的规模?谢谢。
P05935:46
Hock TanPresident and CEO
That's a hell of a great question, Jim. It's just very difficult to answer because of how do we predict that. There are quite a few moving parts there. One of which is to start with is as a volume, as more and more of our customers turn to XPUs. Obviously, XPUs uses very much a lot of our networking components across the board. That's great for us, and that drives increase in consumption. It also means that we have been able to sell networking to non-XPU footprints. That part of it would dilute the growth rate. This 40%, I consider as almost a situation where stars align, where we are shipping a lot of networking to non-XPU, while the growth of XPU are obviously allowing us to grow this networking business to our XPUs, and we get to 40%.
Jim,这个问题问得非常好。只是这个问题很难回答,因为要准确预测这一点并不容易,其中涉及不少动态变化的因素。首先,从总量上看,随着越来越多的客户转向采用 XPU,显然 XPU 会全面带动我们大量网络组件的使用。这对我们非常有利,也会推动网络产品消耗量的增长。但另一方面,我们也一直成功地将网络产品销售给非 XPU 集群。随着 XPU 放量,这部分非 XPU 配套的占比变化会在一定程度上稀释网络营收的相对增速。因此,本季度达到 40% 的占比,我认为几乎是天时地利凑在一起的结果——我们一方面向非 XPU 集群大量出货网络产品,同时 XPU 的增长显然也带动了配套网络业务的增长,从而使占比达到了 40%。
P06037:00
I see that as probably as high as that percentage of total AI revenue would go. Not the first time I indicated that. The more expected percentage as a share of total AI revenue for networking would be closer to around 30%.
我认为这大概就是网络业务占 AI 总营收比例的最高水平了。这也不是我第 1 次这么表示。网络业务占 AI 总营收更常态化的预期比例应该更接近 30% 左右。
P06137:23
Operator
One moment for our next question. That will come from the line of Thomas O'Malley with Barclays. Your line is open.
请稍候,我们接听下一个问题。下一个问题来自巴克莱的 Thomas OMalley。您的线路已接通。
P06237:36
Tom O'MalleyAnalyst, Barclays
Hey, Hock. Thanks for taking the question. I noticed with the most recent deal with Anthropic that you guys are using Broadcom chips as a backstop for the deal. Do you expect more deals to come like this in the future? As you start to see the AI environment, is there any way you're thinking about financing in the future? You're going to continue to do it with chips or anything that you can offer on that? Thank you.
嗨,Hock,感谢接受提问。我注意到在最近与 Anthropic 达成的交易中,你们似乎使用了博通芯片作为该交易的担保支持(backstop)。您预计未来还会有更多类似的交易吗?随着 AI 行业环境的发展,您对未来的融资模式有什么考虑?你们会继续用芯片来提供支持吗,或者在这方面有什么可以分享的?谢谢。
P06337:58
Hock TanPresident and CEO
Can you repeat that question, especially at the front end? I didn't quite get what you're saying here. I don't want to answer the wrong way.
你能把这个问题重述一遍吗,尤其是前半部分?我没太听明白你的意思,我不想答偏了。
P06438:06
Tom O'MalleyAnalyst, Barclays
Sorry, Hock. Essentially, most recent deal with Anthropic is being backstopped by Broadcom chips. Do you think that in the future you will see more deals done this way? Any comments on the future financing of deals with the large AI models? Thank you.
抱歉,Hock。简单来说,最近与 Anthropic 的交易是由博通芯片提供担保支持的。您认为未来会看到更多以这种方式达成的交易吗?对于未来与大型 AI 模型公司达成交易的融资安排,您有什么评论?谢谢。
P06538:23
Hock TanPresident and CEO
Oh, I have to correct you on that. Our deal with Anthropic and that we basically released, disclosed in our 8-K recently. As the deal we did with Anthropic is we use our TPU chips that we developed to provide the compute capacity to Anthropic. It wasn't backstop in that sense. We were the ones providing the chips to Anthropic. We were the ones providing the compute capacity to Anthropic.
哦,这一点我必须纠正你一下。我们与 Anthropic 达成的交易——也就是我们最近在 8-K 文件中披露的内容——是我们利用自己开发的 TPU 芯片为 Anthropic 提供算力容量。这并不是你所说的那种担保支持(backstop)。是我们直接向 Anthropic 提供芯片,是我们为 Anthropic 提供算力容量。
P06639:12
Operator
Thank you. One moment for our next question. That will come from the line of C.J. Muse with Cantor Fitzgerald. Your line is open.
谢谢。请稍候,我们接听下一个问题。下一个问题来自 Cantor Fitzgerald 的 C.J. Muse。您的线路已接通。
P06739:22
C.J. MuseAnalyst, Cantor Fitzgerald
Yeah, good afternoon. Thanks for taking the question. I guess, Hock, in recent years you've talked about really focusing your efforts on very large XPU platforms. I'm just curious, we're seeing many kind of XPU attached derivatives across interconnect, storage, other. I'm wondering if there's any sort of programs there that are more niche that are whetting your appetite.
下午好,感谢接受提问。Hock,过去几年里您一直强调将精力高度集中在超大型 XPU 平台上。我只是好奇,我们目前看到围绕 XPU 衍生出了许多涉及互连、存储和其他领域的配套机会。我想知道其中是否有哪些相对细分领域的项目也引起了您的兴趣?
P06839:50
Hock TanPresident and CEO
Well, I don't think so. I think our business model is actually very straightforward, which is we are developing XPUs, custom AI accelerators for use by our customers who are pretty much all LLM developers, whether it's for training or inference. We are also creating a portfolio of critical components to enable these XPUs and even GPUs to be clustered and form better performance. That continues to be the model we do, which is we provide chips, technology in the form of chips, whether they be AI compute accelerators we call XPUs or networking chips that cluster them together, be it switches, PCI Express connectors, DSP, lasers, NICs, and routers. We still, as you can see, our financial model and the program we go, we drive towards a chip business model through the technologies we provide.
嗯,我并不这么认为。我认为我们的商业模式其实非常直接:我们开发 XPU(定制 AI 加速器),供我们的客户使用,而这些客户基本上都是大语言模型(LLM)开发商,无论是用于训练还是推理。同时,我们也打造了一系列关键组件产品组合,使这些 XPU 乃至 GPU 能够组成集群并实现更优的性能。这一直是我们的业务模式,即我们以芯片的形式提供技术——无论是我们称之为 XPU 的 AI 计算加速芯片,还是将它们连接成集群的网络芯片,包括交换机、PCI Express 连接器、DSP、激光器、网卡(NIC)和路由器。正如你所看到的,我们的财务模型和项目推进方向,始终是通过我们所提供的技术来驱动纯粹的芯片商业模式。
P06941:24
What we are doing to enable some of these LLM players to be able to get access to the volume of compute capacity, the large gigawatt of compute capacity they need to scale up their models is we are, as I announced here today, creating in partnership with guys with the best balance sheets around, a vehicle to basically have these chips funded for these LLM players who otherwise might have difficulty getting access to our technology, which provides them with the lowest power and the lowest cost.
至于我们正在做的另一件事,是为了让其中一些大语言模型厂商能够获得扩展模型所需的海量算力容量、即数吉瓦规模的算力容量——正如我今天在这里宣布的,我们正与业内资产负债表最雄厚的机构合作,搭建一个投资载体,为这些大语言模型厂商采购我们的芯片提供资金支持;否则,这些厂商可能很难获得我们能够提供最低功耗和最低成本的领先技术。
P07042:16
Operator
One moment for our next question. That will come from the line of Atif Malik with Citi. Your line is open.
请稍候,我们接听下一个问题。下一个问题来自花旗的 Atif Malik。您的线路已接通。
P07142:26
Atif MalikAnalyst, Citi
Hi, thank you for taking my question. I have a question on Infrastructure Software business. Are you guys seeing any impact of AI, agentic AI, on your software growth and renewals? If you can just talk about some sort of long-term growth for that business.
你好,感谢接受我的提问。我有一个关于基础设施软件业务的问题。你们是否看到 AI 或智能体(agentic)AI 对你们的软件业务增长和续约产生任何影响?另外能否谈谈这项业务的长期增长前景?
P07242:45
Hock TanPresident and CEO
Well, we're not seeing it. If anything else, as I reported, the high volume of core count of CPUs selling together with GPUs, it's driving some accelerated growth of our VMware business. As you can see in Q3, we're seeing an accelerated growth, and we expect that to continue, I guess, for the next multiple quarters as this demand picks up. Long term, given the kind of products we do in infrastructure software, very close to literally the hardware, basically the hypervisor, which is where our products are. We do not expect to see any impact on software products.
我们并没有看到负面影响。恰恰相反,正如我刚才报告的,随着与 GPU 配套销售的 CPU 核心数量大幅增加,这反而推动了我们 VMware 业务的加速增长。正如你在第三季度指引中看到的,我们正迎来加速增长,而且随着这一需求的回升,我们预计这种势头将在未来好几个季度持续下去。从长期来看,鉴于我们在基础设施软件领域所做的产品紧贴硬件底层——基本上就是虚拟化管理程序(hypervisor),这正是我们产品的定位所在——我们预计不会看到 AI 对我们的软件产品造成任何负面冲击。
P07343:51
Operator
One moment for our next question. That will come from the line of Edward Snyder with Charter Equity Research. Your line is open.
请稍候,我们接听下一个问题。下一个问题来自 Charter Equity Research 的 Edward Snyder。您的线路已接通。
P07444:02
Edward SnyderAnalyst, Charter Equity Research
Thanks a lot. Hock, this is very interesting because the gigawatts that you laid out for the different customers, it's very clear that the two that are offering kind of CSP, I don't want to say CFC, but consumer versions of AI, Anthropic and OpenAI, have very large gigawatt commitments in the out years. I know part of that's catch up because they've just started late, where your oldest customers have been doing this for quite some time. Even part of Google's is offering cloud services to other folks, too. Are we seeing a shift here? I know that initially a lot of the XPUs and the AI services were through the hyperscalers for their own customer workloads. We've talked about that ad nauseam. Now you're seeing AI finally hit the enterprises, and you're seeing cloud take off with the programming, which is sweeping everybody.
非常感谢。Hock,这非常有意思,因为从您刚才为不同客户梳理的吉瓦规模来看,很明显,那两家提供类似云服务(或者说面向消费者版本的 AI 服务)的公司——Anthropic 和 OpenAI——在未来几年有着极其庞大的吉瓦级承诺。我知道其中一部分原因是在补课,因为他们起步较晚,而你们最早的客户已经在这方面耕耘很长时间了,甚至谷歌也有一部分算力是在向其他客户提供云服务。我们是否正在见证一场结构性转变?我知道最初大部分 XPU 和 AI 服务都是由超大规模云厂商用于其自身的客户工作负载,这一点我们已经讨论过无数次了。但现在我们看到 AI 终于开始进入企业客户市场,云端编程应用全面爆发、席卷各行各业。
P07544:50
Can we expect that there's going to be this big second wave of demand that's driven as AI starts hitting enterprises and as consumers start getting access to it or finding usable tools? The numbers you're saying here are significantly different for the two classes of customers.
随着 AI 开始落地企业客户,以及消费者开始接触到 AI 或找到真正好用的工具,我们是否可以期待会出现由这一趋势驱动的庞大第 2 波需求浪潮?毕竟您刚才给出的这两类客户的数字存在显著差异。
P07645:11
Hock TanPresident and CEO
Well, that's a very interesting thought here. You may be very well right that enterprise consuming AI is still relatively at an early stage of the game. Having said that, what we're also seeing is a lot of what the enterprise is consuming on tokens. They are buying a lot of these tokens from the platforms, the product API they pull from the platforms of this same name of customers we talked about, which is Anthropic, OpenAI, Gemini. These are the large guys they're pulling it from, and that's where I think high, substantially most of these tokens consumption are tied to those LLMs. These LLM guys, as they productize their frontier models, whether it be Opus 4.7, ChatGPT 5.5 or Gemini 3.5, comes back to the same end demand on compute capacity we provide to all these guys.
这是一个非常有趣的思路。你说得很可能没错,企业客户消耗 AI 目前确实还处于相对早期的阶段。话虽如此,我们也看到,企业客户目前消耗的大量 token,其实是从我们刚才提到的这几家客户——也就是 Anthropic、OpenAI、Gemini——的平台上通过调用产品 API 购买的。这些正是企业获取服务的大型平台,我认为绝大部分 token 消耗都集中在这些大语言模型上。而当这些大语言模型厂商将他们的前沿模型产品化时——无论是 Opus 4.7、ChatGPT 5.5 还是 Gemini 3.5——最终都会转化为对我们向所有这些厂商提供的底层算力容量的终端需求。
P07746:27
Even a growth of enterprise demand that we're now starting to see as enterprise starts to consume AI tokens for their own workloads, for their own productivity users, as consumers do, they are buying from the same source, these same few guys. That's what's driving this very large, I call it insatiable growth in compute capacity that we are experiencing. We see that continuing to happen now through 2027 and what we're seeing now through 2028 as well. This is getting to be quite a sustainable and steepening trajectory of demand.
因此,即便是我们现在开始看到的企业客户需求增长——随着企业像普通消费者一样开始为自身的工作负载和生产力工具消耗 AI token——他们也是在从同一个源头、也就是这寥寥几家头部厂商那里购买。这正是推动我们目前所经历的这种极其庞大、我称之为难以满足的算力容量增长的原因。我们看到这一趋势不仅将贯穿 2027 年,而且从目前的能见度来看还将延续至 2028 年。这正在演变成一条相当持久且愈发陡峭的需求增长曲线。
P07847:23
Edward SnyderAnalyst, Charter Equity Research
If I could, doesn't this change the dynamic of what we've talked about before? You talked about seven or so customers for your XPUs, but this is actually happening. We've already seen it, Google offering cloud services for TPU. It opens up XPU access to all those smaller companies that don't meet the criteria for doing their own ASICs that you couldn't partner with to Broadcom's technology through these platforms. Why would that not be the case?
如果允许我追问一下,这难道不会改变我们之前讨论过的行业格局吗?您之前常说你们的 XPU 只有大约 7 家左右的客户,但现在情况正在发生变化——我们已经看到谷歌通过云服务对外提供 TPU 算力。这意味着,那些原本达不到自研 ASIC 门槛、你们无法直接合作的中小企业,现在可以通过这些平台用上博通的 XPU 技术。为什么情况不会是这样呢?
P07947:52
Hock TanPresident and CEO
Well, I guess the answer to that is it's possible, but the reality of the whole issue is the compute capacity most of AI generated are provided in the form of SaaS models. APIs are pulled from the clouds, whether they're from Bedrock, Vertex, Azure, or the first party. It is still provided in the cloud. Most of all that demand, at the end of the day, in terms of compute capacity, which is what we're doing, comes from those few large frontier model developers and the products they generate to supply to consumer and enterprises globally. Source of demand comes from those frontier model labs who are developing the products which consumer and enterprise, like you and us and our companies, are consuming.
嗯,我想答案是这确实有可能,但整个问题的实际情况在于,绝大部分 AI 生成所需的算力容量都是以 SaaS(软件即服务)模式提供的。无论是通过 Bedrock、Vertex、Azure 还是第一方平台调用 API,它依然是在云端提供的。归根结底,就我们所从事的算力容量业务而言,绝大部分需求依然来自那少数几家大型前沿模型开发商,以及他们为服务全球消费者和企业客户而打造的产品。需求的源头就是那些正在开发各类产品、供像你我及各自企业这样的消费者和企业客户消耗的前沿模型实验室。
P08049:01
what we're doing is providing that capacity to that demand source, as opposed to going to a company or bank and trying to provide them XPUs, and then they having to try to build it, create a software stack to then write application and run it themselves. I'm sure there are few enterprises doing now, but there are not many. It's early stage in that whole game. Right now, most of the demand are coming from the frontier model players who are creating products. Things, as I said, like code assistance, like engineering verticals, which are really coming from the same source of guys who are doing all those. Those few guys doing the frontier models. It's not really coming from 100,000 companies directly trying to buy XPUs or for that matter, GPUs. It's not.
而我们所做的,是向这些需求源头直接提供算力容量,而不是去找某家普通公司或某家银行,试图把 XPU 卖给他们,然后让他们自己去搭建系统、创建软件栈、再去编写应用程序并自行运行。我确信目前有少数企业客户在尝试这么做,但数量并不多,那在整个行业里还处于非常早期的阶段。目前,绝大部分需求都来自正在打造产品的前沿模型厂商——比如我刚才提到的代码助手、工程垂直领域应用等,这些全都源自那几家开发前沿模型的厂商,而不是来自 100,000 家试图直接购买 XPU 或 GPU 的普通公司。事实并非如此。
P08150:13
Operator
One moment for our next question. That will come from the line of Joseph Moore with Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.
请稍候,我们接听下一个问题。下一个问题来自摩根士丹利的 Joseph Moore。您的线路已接通。
P08250:24
Joe MooreAnalyst, Morgan Stanley
Great. Thank you. You talked about $30 billion of AI bookings in the quarter, which is a lot, I guess, relative to this quarter and next quarter shipments. Can you talk about the dynamic? Why is there so much backlog now, or is there-- You sort of said you can react to upside with supply, just why so many bookings this quarter relative to revenue?
太好了,谢谢。您刚才提到本季度的 AI 新签订单超过 300 亿美元,相对于本季度和下季度的出货量而言,这是一个非常庞大的数字。您能否谈谈背后的原因?为什么现在的积压订单会这么多?或者说——您刚才似乎提到你们可以通过供应来响应超预期需求——为什么本季度的新签订单相对于当期营收会如此之高?
P08350:46
Hock TanPresident and CEO
Well, there's a huge demand of compute. See, a lot of our large, these few six customers now, they realize that lead time to get compute, you need lead time. You need to be thoughtful. That's not just asking for wafers to get the chips or memory to ensure their HBMs are available or DRAMs available. They're also talking about, "Hey, I got to have the power, the power shell." All this is planning ahead. What we are seeing, the bookings that are coming, is not for immediate delivery. Some are hope to have, the reality they all accept is they need to align quite a few other things in place before they can deliver.
因为市场对算力的需求极其庞大。你看,我们的这 6 家大型客户现在都意识到,获取算力是需要提前期的(lead time)。他们必须未雨绸缪。这不仅是为了拿到芯片而提前预订晶圆,或者为了确保高带宽内存(HBM)和 DRAM 的供应;他们同时还在考虑:“嘿,我必须先落实电力和机房外壳(power shell)。”所有这些都需要提前规划。因此,我们目前看到的这些涌入的新签订单,并不是要求立即交付的。有些客户当然希望越快越好,但大家都接受的一个现实是,在最终交付之前,他们必须先把其他好几个环节配套到位。
P08451:40
They are placing their orders early, and they're placing their orders now, and they are placing their orders in fairly huge demand, which basically gives us a lot more visibility than we normally otherwise would have in semiconductors. Our visibility runs all the way to 2028 right now. Three months ago, I can tell you our visibility run pretty much 2027. Today, it runs to 2028. That's a big part of the reason why we are creating this XPU platform as really the platform to plan to build up this capacity for those frontier model customers of ours who are seeing, as you guys are seeing in some of the financials they are telling you and in the experiences you have, which is driving huge amount of consumption of tokens from those compute capacity we are giving them.
因此,他们正在提前下达订单,现在就在下单,而且下单的规模相当庞大,这使我们获得了远超半导体行业通常水平的能见度。目前我们的业务能见度已经一直延伸到了 2028 年。就在 3 个月前,我可以告诉你,我们的能见度基本上只到 2027 年;而今天,它已经延伸到了 2028 年。这也是我们为什么要搭建这个 XPU 平台的重要原因——它是真正用来提前规划和建设这些算力容量的平台,服务于我们的前沿模型客户;正如各位在他们披露的部分财务数据以及各位自身的体验中所看到的,这些客户正推动着我们所提供的算力容量产生海量的 token 消耗。
P08552:52
We have the benefit now of a lot of lead time, we're planning that. It's not because of shortage of our components, it's also the other elements that need to be put in place, which particularly relates to power and connection into an infrastructure globally or through America, at least, that enables inference to be distributed through to consumers and enterprises throughout the country. We're just getting a lot of lead time.
我们现在受益于充裕的提前期,并正在据此进行规划。这并不是因为我们的组件短缺,而是因为其他配套要素也需要同步到位,特别是电力以及接入全球(或者至少是全美)基础设施的网络连接,这样才能将推理服务分发给全国各地的消费者和企业客户。所以我们现在获得了非常充裕的提前期。
P08653:29
Joe MooreAnalyst, Morgan Stanley
Very helpful. Thank you.
非常有帮助,谢谢。
P08753:32
Operator
Thank you. We do have time for one final question, and that will come from the line of Joshua Buchalter with TD Cowen. Your line is open.
谢谢。我们还有时间接听最后 1 个问题,来自 TD Cowen 的 Joshua Buchalter。您的线路已接通。
P08853:42
Joshua BuchalterAnalyst, TD Cowen
Hey, guys. Thank you for taking my question. In the past, you've talked about sort of $15 billion, $20 billion per gigawatt of compute. Given the 10 that you implied is what you'll be doing next year, it implies a much larger number than $100 billion. You've also mentioned that the value per gigawatt does vary per project. I guess, how should we think about the evolution of your revenue per gigawatt over time? As I would expect on one hand, then-to-then pricing to increase on programs you're already shipping, but also there are other projects that are entering the model. Thank you.
大家好,感谢接受我的提问。过去您曾提到每吉瓦算力对应的价值量大约在 150 亿到 200 亿美元之间。考虑到您刚才确认明年将出货约 10 吉瓦,这隐含的金额似乎远超 1,000 亿美元。您之前也提到过,每个项目每吉瓦对应的价值量存在差异。我想请教,我们应该如何看待你们每吉瓦营收贡献随时间的演变?一方面我预计在已出货项目上,随着代际演进价格会有所上升,但另一方面也有新项目不断加入到模型中。谢谢。
P08954:18
Hock TanPresident and CEO
Our revenue, our content per gigawatt will increase. Put it simply. Our content from the fact that our compute chip XPU will go up in price very dramatically, particularly when you not only put SRAM into it, sparse cores, you start putting embedding CPU cores into the same XPUs and making those chips basically multi-die with lots of HBM. The trajectory of content increase will go up. It just doesn't go up every month, every six months, or every quarter. It will follow one generation to the next, that the content will grow per gigawatt.
简单来说,我们的每吉瓦营收、每吉瓦芯片价值量将会上升。我们的价值量之所以会提升,是因为我们的计算芯片 XPU 的价格将大幅上涨——特别是当你不仅在芯片中集成 SRAM 和稀疏核心(sparse cores),还开始将 CPU 核心也嵌入到同一个 XPU 中,并使其成为挂载大量高带宽内存(HBM)的多裸片(multi-die)封装芯片时。因此,每吉瓦价值量的长期走势是向上的。只不过它不会每个月、每 6 个月或每个季度都往上涨,而是会随着芯片从一代演进到下一代,实现每吉瓦价值量的阶梯式增长。
P09055:18
Joshua BuchalterAnalyst, TD Cowen
Thank you.
谢谢。
P09155:21
Operator
Thank you. I would now like to turn the call over to Ji Yoo, Head of Investor Relations, for closing remarks.
谢谢。我现在将电话转交给投资者关系主管 Ji Yoo 做总结发言。
P09255:28
Ji YooHead of Investor Relations
Thank you, operator. Broadcom currently plans to report its earnings for the third quarter of fiscal year 2026 after close of market on Wednesday, September 2nd, 2026. A public webcast of Broadcom's earnings conference call will follow at 2:00 P.M. Pacific Time. That will conclude our earnings call today. Thank you all for joining. Cherie, you may end the call.
谢谢主持人。博通目前计划于 2026 年 9 月 2 日星期三盘后公布其 2026 财年第三季度业绩,随后将于太平洋时间下午 2:00 举行博通财报电话会的公开网络直播。今天的财报电话会到此结束。感谢各位的参与。Cherie,请结束本次电话会。
P09355:52
Operator
This concludes today's program. Thank you all for participating. You may now disconnect.
今天的会议到此结束。感谢各位的参与,现在可以挂断电话了。