FY2026Q1 电话会逐字稿
发言人
点击某位发言人,只突出显示其发言;再次点击恢复| 姓名 | 职位 | 机构 | 段落 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Abel | President and CEO | Berkshire Hathaway | 206 |
| Warren Buffett | Chairman | Berkshire Hathaway | 90 |
| Ajit Jain | Vice Chairman of Insurance Operations | Berkshire Hathaway | 35 |
| Chris Davis | Chairman | Davis Advisors | 25 |
| Katie Farmer | President and CEO | BNSF Railway | 24 |
| Dan Sheridan | CEO | Brooks Running | 23 |
| Vicki Hollub | President and CEO | Occidental Petroleum | 21 |
| Adam Johnson | President of Consumer Products, Service and Retailing; CEO of NetJets | Berkshire Hathaway | 17 |
| Nancy Pierce | CEO | GEICO | 8 |
| Dan Calkins | Chairman and CEO | Benjamin Moore | 8 |
| Shareholder | Shareholder | Berkshire Shareholder | 2 |
| Warren Buffett | Chairman (Floor Q&A) | Berkshire Hathaway | 1 |
| Subsidiary Executive | Executive | Berkshire Subsidiary | 1 |
| Becky Quick | Anchor and Moderator | CNBC | 197 |
| Mike Santoli | Senior Markets Commentator | CNBC | 123 |
| Yun Li | Reporter | CNBC | 20 |
| Intermission Commentator | Commentator | CNBC | 5 |
| Bori Wang | Shareholder | Shareholder (Chengdu) | 4 |
| Jackie Han | Shareholder | Shareholder (Toronto) | 2 |
| Lavia | Shareholder | Shareholder (California) | 1 |
| Jia Shen | Shareholder | Shareholder (China) | 1 |
| Kansas Lohmeier | Shareholder | Shareholder (Omaha) | 1 |
| Manjap Singh | Shareholder | Shareholder (California) | 1 |
| Amir Rayhani | Shareholder | Shareholder (Vancouver) | 1 |
● 公司管理层 / 主持人 ● 外部分析师
P00100:00
Greg AbelPresident and CEO
Good morning, and welcome to Omaha. I wanna welcome all our owners, our long-term owners, those that have recently become a shareholder. Again, thank you for joining us in Omaha for the meeting. Obviously very excited by this. I wanna also touch on we have many people here just experiencing it, so just great to be together. The first thing I just wanna touch on, we had the video, incredible 60 years. The one thing I did note that we've traditionally had was we've often had a movie which included the credits that came with it. The video. We'll have a few other videos that I'll touch on later. We did have an exceptional producer, an executive producer, and I wanna thank her 'cause it wasn't acknowledged. Susan Buffett, thank you.
早上好,欢迎来到奥马哈。我要欢迎我们所有的企业主——包括我们的长期股东,以及近期新加入的股东。再次感谢大家来到奥马哈参加本次股东大会。显然,我对此非常激动。我还想提一下,现场有许多人是专程来亲身体验这场盛会的,大家能聚在一起真是太好了。我首先要提的第一件事是刚才播放的视频,那是不可思议的 60 年。我注意到,按照过往传统,我们通常会播放一部带有演职员表的电影短片。至于这段视频——稍后我还会介绍另外几段视频——我们有一位极其出色的制作人、执行制作人,由于片中没有署名致谢,我想在此特别感谢她。Susan Buffett,谢谢你。
P00201:12
The director who's always done the movies, again, did this video and will do our company videos that I'll touch on shortly, Brad Underwood. Thank you, Brad. We have a great day planned, and it's really all around our owners. It's our culture, but most importantly, this is our owners' day, our owners' weekend. We have an exceptional group of owners, and we're just passionate to be here. We'll communicate a variety of things around Berkshire and our, and our insurance, our operating subsidiaries and Berkshire as a whole. What we really treasure is the engagement with our, again, our owners, our shareholders and the, and the questions that come. Thank you. Really appreciate it. To touch on this morning, we have 3 sessions that we'll cover over the morning, early afternoon.
一直为我们制作大会短片的导演 Brad Underwood 再次执导了这段视频,接下来我马上会提到的几段旗下公司视频也是由他制作的。谢谢你,Brad。我们为今天做了精彩的安排,一切都是围绕着我们的股东展开的。这就是我们的文化,但最重要的是,今天属于我们的股东之日、股东周末。我们拥有极其优秀的股东群体,能够站在这里我们感到满怀热忱。我们将就 Berkshire 以及我们的保险业务、各运营子公司乃至 Berkshire 整体沟通多方面的内容。我们真正珍视的,是与我们的企业主、我们的股东进行互动,以及大家提出的各个问题。谢谢大家,非常感激。先介绍一下今天上午的安排,从上午到午后早些时候,我们一共设有 3 个环节。
P00302:18
The first session, there'll be some pleasantries here, and then we'll move into a business update. That'll be the first session. As we move into the second session, I'll have Ajit Jain join us here on stage. We'll obviously take any questions, so it'll be a question and answer period. We'll do the traditional rotating between our shareholders and Becky. Becky, thank you for being here. We'll do the traditional Q&A. Then that session will wrap, and then we'll move to a third session that will have Katie Farmer. Katie has been the CEO of BNSF, our railway, for the past five years. Then we'll also be joined by Adam Johnson, who is a 10-year CEO of NetJets, but also took on an incremental role recently, we announced that in December.
在第 1 个环节中,我们先在这里做一些简短的寒暄与开场介绍,随后进入业务近况更新。这就是第 1 个环节。进入第 2 个环节后,我将邀请 Ajit Jain 上台与我们一同就座。届时我们显然会回答大家的任何提问,因此这将是一个问答环节。我们将延续传统,在现场股东与 Becky 之间轮流提问。Becky,感谢你的到来。我们将按传统方式进行问答。该环节结束后,我们将进入第 3 个环节,届时 Katie Farmer 将上台参与。Katie 在过去 5 年里一直担任我们旗下的铁路公司 BNSF 的首席执行官。同时加入我们的还有 Adam Johnson,他担任 NetJets 首席执行官已有 10 年,并且近期还承担了一项新增职务——我们在去年 12 月宣布了这一任命。
P00403:23
Adam took on the Consumer Products Group, Services and Retailing group. We'll have them join us for the third session. Again, the traditional question and answer period. The only thing that I would say this is also a little bit incremental or different from past meetings. Throughout this morning, we'll have three different videos associated with operating companies. The first one will be from GEICO. Nancy Pierce, who's the CEO of GEICO, long-term veteran and wealth of experience with GEICO. She's over in the managers section. She'll narrate a video on GEICO. We'll also have a video on NetJets narrated by Adam and a video narrated by Katy on BNSF, the railway. That'll be incremental.
Adam 接管了消费品、服务与零售业务集团。他们两位将在第 3 个环节加入我们,同样进行传统的问答交流。唯一我想补充的是,这次还有一些相较往届大会略微新增或不同的安排。在整个今天上午的议程中,我们将播放 3 段关于旗下运营公司的不同视频。第 1 段来自 GEICO。Nancy Pierce 是 GEICO 的首席执行官,她是长期效力于 GEICO 的资深老将,拥有极其丰富的经验。她现在就坐在台下的管理层席位区。她将为这段关于 GEICO 的视频担任旁白。此外,我们还将播放一段由 Adam 担任旁白的 NetJets 视频,以及一段由 Katie 担任旁白的铁路公司 BNSF 视频。这些都是今年新增的内容。
P00504:24
The fundamental purpose of both having some incremental managers join us on the stage and the videos, we have an exceptional team at Berkshire. The depth of management's very deep. Obviously, we have a number of subsidiaries, but the depth of our team is great. This is an opportunity through the videos or having incremental leaders on stage, it's an opportunity for you as our owners to both learn more about those businesses, but also about the leaders that lead them. That will be a format that as we go forward, we'll build on, i.e., we can introduce you to other leaders either on stage or through the videos. Let's move to the formalities now. I'm going to introduce our directors. I'm going to do it alphabetically.
无论是邀请更多管理层成员上台,还是播放这些视频,其根本目的都在于展示我们在 Berkshire 拥有一支卓越的团队。我们的管理层梯队非常深厚。显然,我们旗下拥有众多子公司,而我们团队的人才厚度非常出色。通过这些视频或让更多业务负责人走上台前,能够让您作为我们的企业主,既更深入地了解这些业务,也更深入地了解掌舵这些业务的领军人。展望未来,我们将继续沿用并拓展这一形式,也就是说,我们可以通过请上台或播放视频的方式,向大家介绍更多业务负责人。现在让我们进入正式议程。我将按姓氏字母顺序介绍我们的各位董事。
P00605:19
If they could just acknowledge with a wave or however they would like to acknowledge our shareholders, our owners. Start with Howard Buffett. Susan Buffett. Our Chairman, Warren Buffett. Warren, we have a little surprise there for you. If you look up to the right, you'll see a jersey and a number. We are retiring Warren appropriately, it's number 60 for 60 years as our CEO of Berkshire. Equally, it's placed beside Charlie's jersey, number 45. Charlie was with Berkshire for 45 years. Obviously, our Vice Chairman and a treasured partner of Warren, and it's just reflective of a great partnership. Thank you, Warren. I'm happy to report both those jerseys will remain in the rafters for the years to come. Great. Now, we'll continue with our directors. Steve Burke. Kenneth Chenault. Christopher Davis.
请各位董事挥手致意,或以各自喜欢的方式向我们的股东、我们的企业主致意。首先是 Howard Buffett。Susan Buffett。我们的董事长 Warren Buffett。Warren,我们在那里为你准备了一个小惊喜。如果你往右上方看,会看到一件球衣和一个号码。我们正以最恰当的方式为 Warren 举行球衣退役仪式——号码是 60 号,致敬他担任 Berkshire 首席执行官的 60 年。同样意义非凡的是,它就悬挂在 Charlie 的 45 号球衣旁边。Charlie 在 Berkshire 效力了 45 年。显而易见,他是我们的副董事长,也是 Warren 珍视的伙伴,这两件并排的球衣正是这段伟大搭档关系的写照。谢谢你,Warren。我很高兴地告诉大家,这两件球衣将在未来的岁月里一直高悬在场馆穹顶之上。太好了。现在,我们继续介绍其他董事。Steve Burke。Kenneth Chenault。Christopher Davis。
P00708:03
Our lead director, and I'll just add a point here 'cause, it's Sue's 20th year as a director of Berkshire. Thank you for being our lead director and all you do, Susan Decker. Charlotte Guyman. Ajit Jain. I would just add for relative to Ajit, obviously been our vice chairman of insurance for 9 years. I had many years to be his co-chairman. One thing I just wanna touch on, Ajit joined Berkshire in 1986, so not only is he a director, just been really the architect of our insurance business. Again, thank you, Ajit. Thomas Murphy Jr. Wallace Weitz. Meryl Witmer.
接下来是我们的首席独立董事——我在这里补充一点,今年是 Sue 担任 Berkshire 董事的第 20 个年头。感谢你担任我们的首席独立董事以及你所做的一切,Susan Decker。Charlotte Guyman。Ajit Jain。关于 Ajit,我想补充几句,显然他担任我们保险业务副董事长已有 9 年,我有幸与他作为联席副董事长共事多年。我特别想提的一点是,Ajit 于 1986 年加入 Berkshire,因此他不仅是一位董事,更是我们保险业务真正的总设计师。再次感谢你,Ajit。Thomas Murphy Jr.。Wallace Weitz。Meryl Witmer。
P00809:31
Now I think my eyes have adjusted a bit to the lights and everyone out there, and I have to tell a little bit of a story here because when Warren announced the transition last year, and I was sitting here and couldn't have been more proud, but I don't mind sharing the first thing that flashed through my mind was, "Geez, we've already booked this arena." I know the directors would be here, and I knew I would have some family here. It's wonderful that I'll have you here, so thank you. Thank you. Back to a great tradition. I'm gonna throw the mic over to Warren. Warren?
现在我觉得自己的眼睛已经稍微适应了场馆的灯光,能看清台下的各位了。我不得不在这里讲个小故事:去年当 Warren 宣布交接班安排时,我正坐在这里,内心无比自豪;但我不介意跟大家分享当时脑海里闪过的第一个念头——“天哪,我们已经把这座体育馆预订下来了。”我知道各位董事肯定会来,也知道我的一些家人会来。今天能有大家来到现场真是太好了,非常感谢你们。谢谢。回归一项伟大的传统,我现在要把麦克风交给 Warren。Warren?
P00910:29
Warren BuffettChairman
Thank you. This is not my show today, but there are two anniversaries that we're kind of celebrating today. One is the fact that the board has had what I will generously call a refreshment, which they voted and you couldn't have made a better decision. They did it unanimously. It was a surprise to all the board when I announced it last year, except for Susie and Ajit. That's been a 100% successful. Greg is doing everything I did and then some, and he's doing it better in all cases, and he's the right person, so that decision we score 100% on.
谢谢。今天的主角不是我,但今天有 2 个纪念日值得我们庆祝一下。第 1 个是,董事会进行了一次我姑且大方称之为“焕新”的调整,董事们对此进行了投票表决,而且不可能做出比这更好的决定了。他们一致通过了这项决定。去年我宣布这一决定时,除了 Susie 和 Ajit 之外,董事会的所有人都感到意外。事实证明这一交接取得了 100% 的成功。Greg 不仅承担了我过去做的所有工作,甚至做得更多,而且在所有方面都比我做得更好,他就是最合适的人选,因此这项决定我们可以打 100% 的满分。
P01011:38
Greg AbelPresident and CEO
Thank you, Warren. Thank you.
谢谢你,Warren。谢谢。
P01111:45
Warren BuffettChairman
There's another anniversary today that I'd like to spend just a minute telling you about because about 10 years ago, we made a commitment to essentially move 10% of the resources of Berkshire Hathaway. We turned it over to another person who was not that well known at the time, and we did that by spending roughly $35 billion buying stock in Apple Inc.. We were going to have that under the management. We're turning that money over to the management, essentially, of Apple to make Berkshire look good without any work by us, which is our preferred way of operating. I would like to report that 10 years later, several things are happening. One is the $35 billion, counting dividends, realized appreciation, unrealized appreciation.
今天还有另一个纪念日,我想花一分钟跟大家聊聊:大约 10 年前,我们做出了一项重大承诺,基本上把 Berkshire Hathaway 约 10% 的资源配置了出去。我们把这笔资金交给了一位当时还不算特别出名的人——具体做法是斥资约 350 亿美元买入 Apple Inc. 的股票。我们把这笔资产交由他们管理,本质上就是把这笔钱交给 Apple 的管理层,让我们无需自己动手干活就能让 Berkshire 表现亮眼,而这正是我们最青睐的运营方式。我想向大家汇报,10 年后的今天,有几件事正在发生。首先,计入股息、已实现增值和未实现增值在内,当年的 350 亿美元——
P01213:27
That has turned into $185 billion pre-tax. I didn't have to do a damn thing.
如今税前已经变成了 1,850 亿美元。而我什么鬼活儿都不用干。
P01313:42
Greg AbelPresident and CEO
I mean.
真是不可思议。
P01413:44
Warren BuffettChairman
It's, you know, we're very big around here on having other people do the work and collect the money. That has been a success. We do look at marketable securities as being businesses. That doesn't mean we hold all of them forever. Our largest holding is Apple. Apple has a very interesting history that some of you may be familiar with. 1 item is they're observing an anniversary themselves. I think just within the last week or so, they celebrated their 50th anniversary. You know, 50 years seems like a long time, but Apple seemed like a very new company. When Tim Cook went into the top position at Apple, he succeeded a legend.
你知道,在我们这里,我们非常推崇让别人去干活、而我们负责收钱。这无疑是一次巨大的成功。我们确实把可交易证券视同于实业企业来对待。但这并不意味着我们会永远持有每一只股票。我们目前最大的持仓依然是 Apple。Apple 有一段非常有趣的历史,在座不少人可能都很熟悉。其中 1 件事是,他们自己也在庆祝一个周年纪念日。我想就在过去一周左右,他们刚刚庆祝了公司成立 50 周年。要知道,50 年听起来很漫长,但 Apple 给人感觉依然像是一家非常年轻的公司。当年 Tim Cook 接任 Apple 最高掌门人时,他接替的是一位传奇人物。
P01514:59
You know, that everybody in America knew his name, and not many people knew Tim's name. Apple had had this roller coaster experience where the two Steves had started in a garage or something 50 years earlier. I'm not sure how many of you know, but Steve was thrown out for a while. He came back in. He did these marvelous things in terms of developing products, and then he had an untimely death. Everybody said, "Who's gonna manage Apple when Steve Jobs isn't around?" Probably just a very few percentage points of American investors had even heard of Tim Cook. We, in effect, Tim took over about 14 years ago when Steve died.
当时全美国几乎无人不知那位传奇人物的名字,却没有多少人知道 Tim 的名字。Apple 经历过一段过山车般的历史:50 年前,两位 Steve 在一间车库之类的地方创立了这家公司。我不知道在座有多少人了解,Steve 曾一度被赶出公司,后来又重返 Apple。他在产品研发方面创造了诸多奇迹,随后却英年早逝。当时所有人都在问:“当 Steve Jobs 不在了,谁来管理 Apple?”那时候,可能只有极少数几个百分点的美国投资者听说过 Tim Cook 这个名字。实际上,大约 14 年前 Steve 去世时,Tim 接过了帅印。
P01616:29
When we made our investment, and turned over 10% of the resources of Berkshire, we were turning it over to Tim Cook. As I say, he has turned that into $185 billion or something pre-tax, which we won't bother to compare to our record with. Tim Cook has announced that he's retiring as well. That's an announcement that's just been made in the last couple of years. I think it's appropriate if Tim Cook would take a bow and our shareholders would say thanks to him. Tim Cook is right by me. How would you like to step into the shoes of Steve Jobs and come through with his record? I mean, it's one of the miracles of American business management.
当我们做出这项投资、把 Berkshire 约 10% 的资源交出去时,我们正是把它交给了 Tim Cook。正如我刚才所说,他在税前把这笔投资变成了约 1,850 亿美元,我们甚至都不好意思拿自己的业绩记录去跟它比了。Tim Cook 也已经宣布了他即将退休的消息,这是近两年内做出的宣布。我觉得现在请 Tim Cook 起身致意、让我们的股东向他表示感谢再合适不过了。Tim Cook 就坐在我旁边。大家不妨想一想,接替 Steve Jobs 的位置并交出他这样的成绩单是什么概念?我的意思是,这是美国商业管理史上的奇迹之一。
P01717:54
Thank you, Tim, and I'm going to turn things back to Greg, and we'll go on with the meeting.
谢谢你,Tim。现在我把话筒交还给 Greg,我们继续进行大会议程。
P01818:01
Greg AbelPresident and CEO
Thank you, Warren. Tim, on behalf of our shareholders and owners here, we echo everything Warren said. I would add one thing. You've truly been a global ambassador around the world for American business. Thank you. Warren, thank you for taking the mic there. I am reminded I have a Cherry Coke here in your honor, peanut brittle in Charlie Munger's honor, and that seat remains open. Thank you, Warren. Now we'll move to a few more formalities and get into the business update. Really started with the letter to our owners and shareholders at the end of February, and I touched on it in the letter. I highlighted that the first thing as we transitioned, I wrote a letter to our 400,000 employees touching on culture and values.
谢谢你,Warren。Tim,我谨代表在座的股东和企业主,完全赞同 Warren 刚才所说的每一句话。我还想补充一点:你在全球范围内真正扮演了美国商业的全球大使。谢谢你。Warren,感谢你刚才接过麦克风发言。这提醒了我,我手边放着一罐向你致敬的 Cherry Coke,还有向 Charlie Munger 致敬的花生脆糖(peanut brittle),而那个座位依然为他留着。谢谢你,Warren。现在我们再完成几项例行议程,然后进入业务近况更新。这一切实际上始于 2 月底致全体企业主与股东的信,我在信中也提到了这一点。我特别强调,在完成交接之际,我做的第一件事就是给我们的 40 万名员工写了一封关于企业文化与价值观的信。
P01919:24
The purpose of that letter was to highlight that was not going to change. It had never changed in Berkshire under Warren 60 years. Aspects have evolved, but our culture and values did not change. That as we did the transition, that was not going to change either. It's the bedrock of Berkshire, that culture and values. Now, one of the values we've often touched on here is integrity. There's no better example of Warren's remarkable demonstration of that when he testified before Congress in 1991 as the Chairman and CEO of Salomon Brothers. I like to call it Berkshire's Anthem, but I wanted to make sure we had that opportunity to see the video today. Berkshire's Anthem.
那封信的目的是强调:这一切不会改变。在 Warren 执掌 Berkshire 的 60 年间,它从未改变过。业务的诸多方面在不断演进,但我们的文化与价值观从未改变。在我们完成交接之际,这一点同样不会改变。这种文化与价值观正是 Berkshire 的基石。而在我们经常提及的价值观中,有一项核心价值观就是诚信(integrity)。要诠释这一点,没有比 1991 年 Warren 以 Salomon Brothers 董事长兼首席执行官身份在国会作证时所展现的非凡风范更好的例子了。我喜欢把它称为“Berkshire 之歌”(Berkshire's Anthem),今天我特别希望确保大家有机会重温这段视频。请看《Berkshire 之歌》。
P02020:23
Warren BuffettChairman
I thank you for the opportunity to appear before this subcommittee. I would like to start by apologizing for the acts that have brought us here. The nation has a right to expect its rules and laws to be obeyed, and at Salomon, certain of these were broken. Almost all of Salomon's 8,000 employees regret this as deeply as I do, and I apologize on their behalf as well as mine. My job is to deal with both the past and the future. The past actions of Salomon are presently causing our 8,000 employees and their families to bear a stain. Virtually all of these employees are hardworking, able, and honest. I want to find out exactly what happened in the past so that this stain is borne by the guilty few and removed from the innocent.
感谢贵小组委员会给我这次出席作证的机会。首先,我要为导致我们今天坐在这里的那些行为致歉。国家有权要求其规则与法律得到遵守,而在 Salomon,其中某些规则与法律遭到了违背。Salomon 旗下 8,000 名员工中的绝大多数人都和我一样对此深感痛心,我谨代表他们以及我自己致以歉意。我的职责是同时处理好过去与未来。Salomon 过去的行为目前正让我们的 8,000 名员工及其家人背负污名。这些员工几乎全都勤勉、干练且诚实。我想要彻底查清过去究竟发生了什么,让少数有过错的人承担这一污名,并还无辜者以清白。
P02121:13
To help do this, I promise to you, Mr. Chairman, and to the American people, Salomon's wholehearted cooperation with all authorities. These authorities have the power of subpoena, the ability to immunize witnesses, and the power to prosecute for perjury. Our internal investigation has not had these tools. We welcome their use. As to the future, the submission of this subcommittee details actions that I believe will make Salomon the leader within the financial services industry and controls and compliance procedures. In the end, the spirit about compliance is as important or more so than words about compliance. I want the right words, and I want the full range of internal controls. I also have asked every Salomon employee to be his or her own compliance officer.
为了协助做到这一点,我向您——主席先生,并向全体美国人民承诺:Salomon 将毫无保留地配合所有监管与执法机构。这些机构拥有传唤权、赋予证人豁免权的能力,以及起诉伪证罪的权力。我们的内部调查并不具备这些工具,我们非常欢迎监管机构运用这些权力。至于未来,提交给本小组委员会的书面材料详细列出了我们将采取的举措,我相信这些举措将使 Salomon 在内控与合规流程方面成为金融服务业的领军者。归根结底,合规的精神与合规的条文同样重要,甚至更为重要。我既要有完善的制度条文,也要有全方位的内部控制。同时,我还要求每一位 Salomon 员工都成为自己的合规官。
P02222:07
After they first obey all rules, I then want employees to ask themselves whether they are willing to have any contemplated act appear the next day on the front page of their local paper to be read by their spouses, children, and friends with the reporting done by an informed and critical reporter. If they follow this test, they need not fear my other message to them. Lose money for the firm, and I will be understanding. Lose a shred of reputation for the firm, and I will be ruthless. I welcome your questions.
在首先遵守所有规则的前提下,我还要求员工们扪心自问:对于自己打算采取的任何行动,如果第二天被一位掌握内情且言辞犀利的记者写成报道,刊登在当地报纸的头版上,并由自己的配偶、子女和朋友读到,他们是否依然心甘情愿?如果他们能够通过这项检验,就不必畏惧我对他们传达的另一条训诫:为公司亏了钱,我会予以理解;让公司损失哪怕一丝一毫的声誉,我将绝不姑息。现在欢迎各位提问。
P02322:51
Greg AbelPresident and CEO
Berkshire's Anthem, that's embedded in Berkshire. It's a great reminder to our CEOs and employees, our 400,000 employees, and we do remind them of that, including I ask our CEOs each year, just sent a letter in again in the first quarter, asking them as they run their business, as they make those daily decisions they make, apply that simple test that Warren highlighted, the news-newspaper test. Moving to the more formal update on our numbers. We in fine tradition, we always start with our exhibit hall sales from the exhibit hall yesterday. The interesting thing is, last year was a record, as you may guess. Fortunately, this year's sales were very consistent with 2024. We're basically at 1.5 million sales.
这就是《Berkshire 之歌》,它已经深植于 Berkshire 的血脉之中。这对于我们的各位首席执行官以及全体员工——我们的 40 万名员工——都是极好的警醒。我们也确实在不断提醒他们这一点,包括我每年都会向各位首席执行官提出这一要求,今年第一季度我也再次发信,要求他们在日常经营企业、做出每一天的各项决策时,运用 Warren 所强调的那项简单检验——即“报纸头版检验”。接下来进入关于财务数据的正式更新。按照优良传统,我们总是先从昨天展厅(exhibit hall)的销售情况说起。有趣的是,正如大家可能猜到的,去年创下了历史最高纪录。值得庆幸的是,今年的销售额与 2024 年非常一致,我们的销售额基本上在 150 万美元左右。
P02423:52
The point is we'd always love to get to 2 million, and we're not there yet. We've got something to work on. Importantly, what the exhibit hall represents is our businesses showing their products and services, and you get to see this great commitment of our leadership team and their passion for Berkshire and their passion for the owners. I was fortunate to spend some time going through the exhibit hall yesterday. That's a wonderful experience because we're getting the opportunity to engage with all of you as owners. We treasure the exhibit hall. What a great experience. I'll just add, it's open till 4 o'clock today, and feel free to spend a little money.
关键在于,我们一直很希望突破 200 万美元大关,目前还没达到这个目标,所以我们还有努力的空间。但更重要的是,展厅代表着旗下各家企业向大家展示它们的产品与服务,大家也能在那里亲眼看到我们管理团队的全情投入,以及他们对 Berkshire 的热忱和对股东的热忱。昨天我有幸花了一些时间逛了逛展厅,那是一段非常美妙的体验,因为我们借此机会与作为企业主的各位进行了面对面的交流。我们非常珍视这个展厅,体验真的棒极了。我还要顺便提一句,今天展厅一直开放到下午 4 点,欢迎大家尽情去消费支持一下。
P02524:43
Now, truly moving to the more formal aspects of the business update. We issued our 10-Q this morning and had the related press release. You can see the results I'll touch on those. I'll start with Berkshire just as a whole. Obviously, we have our insurance as I've referenced as our heart of Berkshire was our foundation. As we move to the non-insurance businesses, we're really fortunate to have a number of businesses in there, but in their aggregate, they're fundamental and really central to American businesses and American industry and to the American consumer. When I combine those, it's really the unique opportunity we have to excel across those businesses. That will continue. It's been our focus, it'll very much continue to be our focus.
现在,真正进入业务近况更新的正式内容。今天早上我们发布了 10-Q 季报以及相关的新闻稿,大家可以看到各项业绩数据,我接下来会逐一介绍。我先从 Berkshire 整体讲起。显然,正如我之前多次提到的,保险业务是 Berkshire 的核心与基石。而在非保险业务板块,我们非常幸运地拥有众多优质企业;从整体来看,这些企业对于美国商业、美国工业以及美国消费者而言,都是最基础且真正处于核心地位的业务。将这两大板块结合在一起,就构成了我们在各行各业追求卓越的独特机遇。这一点将会延续下去,它一直是我们的重心,未来也仍将是我们的核心重心。
P02625:44
If I start by looking at these results, I'll start with the insurance, total insurance. I'm starting there because there's a couple really important points to make. You can see in 2026, the first quarter, we're actually up quarter-on-quarter. Yet in the letter that I sent out just in February, highlighted the fact that we're unlikely to see stronger results in 2026. There are some important points here. In 2025, we have an $860 million after-tax charge associated with California wildfires that we insured. The adjustment's not so important. It's just to highlight that the 2026 results and what we're feeling in the insurance industry right now, there's two things. One, our 2026 results do not reflect any catastrophic events. It was a pretty benign period.
如果先看这些业绩数据,我会从保险板块、也就是整体保险业务讲起。之所以从这里开始,是因为有几个非常关键的要点需要说明。大家可以看到,在 2026 年第一季度,我们的业绩同比实际上是上升的。然而,就在今年 2 月发出的股东信中,我曾特别指出,我们在 2026 年不太可能看到更强劲的保险业绩。这里有几个重要背景:在 2025 年同期,我们计提了一笔与我们承保的加州山火相关的 8.6 亿美元税后费用。这项调整本身并不是重点,重点在于借此说明 2026 年的业绩表现以及我们目前在保险行业所感受到的 2 件事。第 1,我们 2026 年第一季度的业绩没有反映任何巨灾事件,这是一个相当平缓温和的时期。
P02726:50
There were some storms in the Northeast part of the U.S., but relative to 2025 and past years, very benign. That highlights again that the insurance or insurance businesses, but the industry as a whole, the pricing we've talked about, that hardening, i.e., can you get the proper premium for risk? It's becoming a more challenging market. What's driving that? When you see a benign environment, and I'll touch on further results, another layer, but you start to see competition coming into the industry. They bring a variety of products and forms, but it's really they're bringing capital into the industry. Just wanted to really highlight, we still see that as a softening market, and I'll expand on that. When we discuss insurance, we have two core objectives at Berkshire.
虽然美国东北部地区发生了一些风暴,但相比 2025 年及过往年份,灾情非常温和。这也再次凸显出,无论是我们的保险业务还是整个保险行业,我们此前谈到的费率走硬——即能否针对所承担的风险获得合理的保费定价——正面临一个更具挑战性的市场环境。背后的驱动因素是什么?当市场处于巨灾温和期时——稍后我还会从另一个层面进一步剖析业绩——你会开始看到竞争者纷纷涌入这个行业。他们带来了五花八门的产品与形式,但本质上,他们是在把大量资本带入这个行业。我特别想强调的是,我们依然认为当前是一个正在走软的市场(softening market),稍后我会展开讲。在讨论保险业务时,我们在 Berkshire 有 2 个核心目标。
P02827:52
We want to underwrite at a profit, create a profit for our ultimately for our shareholders. Truly underwrite at a combined ratio, and I'll come back to it because there's a lot of insurance jargon here, and there's a lot of numbers, so I'll come back to it. The second core objective is to increase our float. The insurance jargon and the numbers on here, go to the combined ratio on the left and go way over to the right, the 10-year average, 93%. I'll give you a little bit of color here. If we have a $100 premium that comes in associated with a policy, the 93% represents the costs incurred associated with that premium. It can be the cost of writing the premium, the commissions, or the loss reserve we set up.
第 1 个核心目标是实现承保盈利,最终为我们的股东创造利润。也就是真正做到在理想的综合成本率(combined ratio)下进行承保——稍后我会回过头来详细解释,因为这里涉及很多保险专业术语和数字。第 2 个核心目标是扩大我们的浮存金(float)。先来看屏幕上的这些保险术语和数字:找到左侧的综合成本率,再一直往右看,10 年平均值为 93%。我给大家稍微通俗地解释一下:假设一张保单为我们带来了 100 美元的保费收入,93% 就代表与这笔保费相关的各项成本支出,包括承保费用、佣金,或者我们计提的赔付准备金。
P02928:43
The 7%, i.e., $7 on $100, is our profit, our operating profit on that premium. If I go back to the $93, just roughly $23 of that would be the expenses, the administration of running the business. That's just an average. It varies across our businesses. It varies across the industry. The other $70, and this is very important, that's actually what goes down into float. When you see our float growing, we take that $70, it goes into our float, and we'll incur premiums against it over the years to come. When the premium shows up, we pay out against that $70.
剩下的 7%,也就是每 100 美元保费中的 7 美元,就是我们的利润,即我们在该笔保费上赚取的营业利润。如果再看那 93 美元成本,其中大约 23 美元是日常经营业务的费用与行政管理开支。这只是一个平均数,在我们旗下不同业务之间会有差异,在整个行业内也各不相同。而剩下的 70 美元——这一点非常重要——实际上就进入了下方的浮存金。当你看到我们的浮存金增长时,正是因为我们把这 70 美元归入浮存金,并在随后几年里针对相应保单承担赔付责任。当理赔发生时,我们就从这 70 美元中支付赔款。
P03029:37
If you take a simple small commercial business or personal insurance, that $70 effectively gets paid out likely over a 3 to 4-year period. That premium sits there as float. We earn on it, and Warren's referenced it many times. It's a valued part of Berkshire, and it's really the opportunity to continue to create value for you as our owners and shareholders. You can see on the float, going back to 2015, it's effectively doubled through 2025. There's a small increase in the current quarter, but I wanted you to all see it, but it's not the fact it increased, it could have decreased because it's just subject to the payment cycle we're in.
以简单的小型商业保险或个人保险为例,这 70 美元实际上大概率会在 3 到 4 年的时间里陆续赔付出去。在此期间,这笔保费就作为浮存金留存在我们账上。我们可以利用它来获取投资收益,Warren 过去也多次提到过这一点。它是 Berkshire 极具价值的一部分,也是我们持续为各位企业主和股东创造价值的真正机遇所在。大家可以从浮存金的数据看到,从 2015 年到 2025 年,我们的浮存金规模基本上翻了一倍。本季度浮存金有小幅增长,我想展示给大家看,但重点不在于单季是增是减——它完全有可能出现下降,因为这取决于我们所处的赔付周期。
P03130:32
The really core and important objective is that we grow it over the long run, and we'll continue to provide those type of updates to you as our owners. If I go back up to the underwriting results, and you see the combined ratio again, but we'll focus on 2026. Primary and reinsurance, they're both 87%, 89.6%. The amazing thing there is that there's an eight in that number. Our 10-year average is in the 93%, so we're actually realizing more operating insurance income profit there. What's driving that? A very benign environment when you think of the catastrophic environment we insure into. The last time there was a hurricane that hit landfall in the U.S. was 19 months ago. Our quarterly results, our results last year do not reflect those type of outcomes.
真正核心且重要的目标是让浮存金实现长期增长,我们也会继续向各位企业主提供这方面的进展更新。如果回到上方的承保业绩表,再次看综合成本率,我们重点看 2026 年第一季度的数据:直保业务(Primary)和再保险业务(Reinsurance)分别为 87% 和 89.6%。令人惊叹的是,这两个数字都是以 8 字头开头的。要知道我们的 10 年平均值在 93% 左右,这意味着我们在这两个板块实际上实现了更高的保险承保营业利润。背后的驱动因素是什么?就我们所承保的巨灾风险而言,近期处于一个非常温和的环境。上一次有飓风在美国本土登陆已经是 19 个月前的事了。因此,我们本季度的业绩以及去年的业绩,都没有反映这类重大飓风登陆的影响。
P03231:38
That means we have more capital coming into that industry. We like those results. The reality is as our insurance business softens and we cannot realize the value we should for the related risk, Ajit and our insurance team across the businesses, we start writing less premium. We still want to write it at an underwriting profit because we'll there's still opportunities there, and there's a number of risks we'll insure, but we'll be much more cautious and specifically across the primary and reinsurance businesses. Let's move to GEICO. As I highlighted, we have a new CEO. We're fortunate to have Nancy leading that team. They even have a better combined ratio, 87.3%. That means associated with that business, 12%-plus operating income coming off of each dollar of premium we write there.
这也意味着会有更多资本涌入这个行业。我们当然喜欢目前这样亮眼的业绩数字,但现实情况是,随着保险市场走软,当我们无法就相关风险获得应有的合理定价与价值回报时,Ajit 和我们各保险业务的团队就会开始缩减保费承保规模。我们依然坚持在有承保利润的前提下写保单——因为市场中仍然存在机会,也有许多风险值得我们去承保——但我们会变得谨慎得多,尤其是在直保和再保险业务板块。接下来看看 GEICO。正如我刚才提到的,我们迎来了一位新任首席执行官,非常幸运能有 Nancy 带领这支团队。他们的综合成本率甚至更优秀,达到了 87.3%。这意味着在该业务中,我们每承保 1 美元保费,就能产生 12% 以上的营业利润。
被引用:↩ 基本面档案 · 投资要点↩ 基本面档案 · 护城河与竞争格局↩ FY2026Q2 季度复盘 · 电话会要点 · 客户与需求↩ FY2026Q2 季度复盘 · 管理层口径变化↩ FY2026Q2 季度复盘 · 叙事 vs 报表↩ FY2026Q3 季度复盘 · 电话会要点 · 客户与需求↩ FY2026Q3 季度复盘 · 叙事 vs 报表↩ 估值 · 分部加总 SOTP↩ FY2026Q2 老唐风格精评 · 一、先对账:管理层上回吹的牛,这季度兑现了吗?↩ FY2026Q2 老唐风格精评 · 三、拆业务:几头现金奶牛各自吃饱了没?↩ FY2026Q1 电话会解析 · 核心判断 ×2↩ FY2026Q1 电话会解析 · 问答解析 · 7. 医疗保健业务探索与 GEICO 费率及理赔创新(开场专题 & Nancy Pierce 专题)↩ FY2026Q1 电话会解析 · 对投资判断的含义 ×2↩ 指引与语气 · 核心结论↩ 指引与语气 · 指引演变 · 保险承保周期与 GEICO 费率及科技投入 ×2↩ 指引与语气 · 指引可信度
P03332:42
Exceptional result. What's driven that is that four or five years ago, the GEICO team stepped back and said that they felt they weren't, relative to the risk, getting the proper premium, the proper price for risk. Over the last four years, we have worked hard, the GEICO team worked hard to get the proper balance across that. That meant our premiums went up for our customers across certain classes of drivers. They worked hard to segment that customer. That happened across the auto industry. Generally speaking, you saw an increase in the overall premium as they managed that underlying risk. What's that mean to the industry? What's that mean to GEICO? Well, one, there's a lot of folks out there pursuing those customers.
这是极其出色的成绩。背后的驱动因素是,在 4、5 年前,GEICO 团队退后一步审视业务时意识到,相对于所承担的风险,他们认为自己没有获得匹配的合理保费,也就是没有实现合理的风险定价。在过去 4 年里,我们和 GEICO 团队付出了巨大努力,以求在风险与定价之间找到恰当的平衡。这意味着针对特定类别的驾驶人群,我们向客户收取的保费有所上调。团队下大力气对客户群体进行了精细化分层。整个车险行业都经历了这一过程——总体而言,随着各家公司管控底层风险,全行业的整体保费水平都出现了上涨。这对行业意味着什么?对 GEICO 又意味着什么?首先,市场上有大量竞争对手正在全力争抢这些客户。
P03433:40
Anytime you increase a customer's insurance premium and especially over a period of time, and this is I'm talking about both GEICO and our competitors, listen, people start evaluating and shopping. We've seen unprecedented shopping activity across the auto space, and you see the advertising that's out there. They're pursuing customers, and they're pursuing the GEICO customers. Yes, we there's an important balance I want to highlight to all of you is that, and this is what our GEICO team's working on. Yes, we have to get the price to risk right, but there's two other important things we really need to balance. The second piece is we really do want to retain our customers. There's no more valued customer than our GEICO customers. Many of you as shareholders and owners of Berkshire are GEICO customers.
无论什么时候,只要你上调了客户的保险费率,尤其是持续一段时间上调——我这里说的既包括 GEICO 也包括我们的竞争对手——听着,人们就会开始重新评估并货比三家。我们在整个车险领域看到了前所未有的比价换保活动(shopping activity),大家也能看到铺天盖地的广告。竞争对手正在大举争抢客户,而且正盯着 GEICO 的客户抢。因此,我想向大家强调一个非常重要的平衡,这也是我们 GEICO 团队目前正在全力攻关的课题:没错,我们必须把风险定价做准,但还有另外 2 件重要的事情需要我们去平衡。第 2 件事就是,我们真心希望留住现有客户。没有比我们的 GEICO 客户更宝贵的客户了,在座的许多 Berkshire 股东和企业主本身就是 GEICO 的客户。
P03534:41
We want to retain all of you. We want to retain every GEICO customer. As we found that right priced risk, the next challenge is making sure we retain our customers, and Nancy and her team have that as a clear objective, and they're working hard on that. The third piece of that balance is to grow GEICO. How do we measure growth in that industry? It's policies in force. If I touch on what we've experienced as growth in GEICO, if we go back to last quarter 2025 versus this quarter, ending March of this year, our policies in force grew by 2%. Now compare that to the number one competitor in our industry, Progressive. They just announced their first quarter results. They grew by 11%.
我们希望留住你们每一个人,我们希望留住每一位 GEICO 客户。在我们找到了合理的风险定价之后,下一个挑战就是确保留住我们的客户;Nancy 和她的团队已将其列为明确目标,并正为此全力以赴。这一平衡的第 3 个维度,就是实现 GEICO 的业务增长。在这个行业里,我们如何衡量增长?看的是有效保单数量(policies in force)。如果看看 GEICO 近期的增长表现,将 2025 年同期与截至今年 3 月底的本季度相比,我们的有效保单数量增长了 2%。不妨将其与我们在行业内的头号竞争对手 Progressive 对比一下——他们刚刚公布了第一季度业绩,其有效保单数量增长了 11%。
P03635:41
Our team at GEICO fully acknowledge, as I said, that balance that they have to find across those, the 3 metrics, including growth. It's not going to be easy to just restart the growth engine. We acknowledge that. They understand the objective, as we go through 26 and into 2027, 2 important objectives, as I said they have, is that, okay, let's retain our customers and let's start growing GEICO again. The last thing I'll just touch on the insurance business, and it's Tokio Marine. I'm not going to expand a lot, but other than we announced the transaction in the 4th quarter of, I mean, in the 4th week of March.
正如我所说,我们的 GEICO 团队完全清楚,他们必须在包括增长在内的这 3 项指标之间找到平衡。想要重新启动增长引擎绝非易事,我们坦然承认这一点。团队非常明确自己的目标:在推进 2026 年(26)并迈向 2027 年的过程中,正如我所说,他们肩负着 2 个重要目标——即留住我们的客户,并让 GEICO 重新恢复增长。关于保险业务,我最后再提一件事,就是 Tokio Marine。我不打算展开太多,只想提一下我们在第 4 季度——我是说在 3 月的第 4 周——宣布了这项交易。
P03736:35
A great transaction by Ajit and his team, it's a strategic transaction in that. I'm highlighting that because, yes, there's a financial aspect of it, and we're thrilled with that. It is a long-term strategic partnership. When Ajit's on stage, I'll have him expand on that. Well done, Ajit, thank you to you and your team. A great transaction for Berkshire. Now we'll move to our non-insurance businesses. I'll start with BNSF. As I've highlighted, a number of our non-insurance businesses provide critical product services. BNSF is a great example of that. 32,500 miles of track in the West, moving core products for a number of customers that touch every industry in the U.S. You'll see the results, some improvement there.
这是由 Ajit 及其团队促成的一笔极佳交易,而且是一笔具有战略意义的交易。我之所以特别强调这一点,是因为它固然有财务层面的考量,我们对此也感到非常兴奋;但它同时更是一项长期的战略合作伙伴关系。等一会儿 Ajit 上台后,我会请他就此详细展开。干得漂亮,Ajit,感谢你和你的团队,这是 Berkshire 的一笔好交易。现在我们转向非保险业务。我先从 BNSF 讲起。正如我此前强调的,我们旗下的许多非保险业务都提供至关重要的产品与服务,BNSF 就是一个绝佳的例子。它在美西拥有 32,500 英里的铁路网,为众多客户运输触及美国每一个行业的核心物资。大家可以看到它的业绩数据,取得了一些改善。
P03837:39
What we really wanna highlight today, and Katie will be joining me on stage and she'll touch on this, is that we have a lot of work we know to do at BNSF. We have a great group of employees who have been working very hard, I would say, on the ground, boots on the ground. You've heard me talk in the past that we have to work hard in our yards and work on how we can move our cars quicker and meet our customers' expectations. We're doing a very good job on the customer service side, but we've recognized we've got to get better operationally. Our team's also been very focused on what resources do we have? Do we have too many locomotives?
但我们今天真正想要强调的是——稍后 Katie 也会上台与我一同探讨这一点——我们清楚自己在 BNSF 还有大量工作要做。我们拥有一批极其优秀的员工,他们一直在第一线脚踏实地、全力以赴地工作。大家过去也听我讲过,我们必须在编组站(yards)下苦功,设法加快车厢周转速度,并满足客户的期望。目前我们在客户服务方面做得非常好,但我们也清醒地认识到,我们在运营效率上必须做得更好。我们的团队也高度聚焦于审视现有资源配置:我们现有的机车(locomotives)是不是太多了?
P03938:27
'Cause actually too many locomotives, it sounds counterintuitive, but can be a problem. You're just not as efficient, but the congestion and everything comes with it. Our teams have been very focused on that. How do we best use our employees? Well, that's something our team's working hard on, but and we're working hard to become more efficient, more effective. We also have to very much recognize where we are versus our industry peers. This is the six Class I railroads that operate in the U.S., and we're one of them. You can see that last year, we were fifth out of six, and that's a reality of where we are, but we're also getting better, and we are going to get better.
因为机车数量过多,听起来似乎有悖常理,但实际上反而会成为一个问题——不仅效率会降低,还会随之带来线路拥堵等一系列问题。我们的团队一直非常关注这一点。另外,我们该如何以最优方式调配员工?这也是我们团队正努力攻关的方向,我们正全力以赴变得更高效、更有成效。同时,我们也必须清醒地认清自己与行业同行的差距。屏幕上展示的是在美国运营的 6 家一级铁路公司(Class I railroads),我们是其中之一。大家可以看到,去年我们在 6 家中排名第 5,这就是我们所处的现实位置,但我们正在变好,而且未来一定会做得更好。
P04039:14
We recognize that this performance is, as I've said, our teams have worked hard, but there's a lot of room for improvement. The good news is, if I look at it in 2025, and what we have here is our operating margin. The 34.5% you see for Berkshire, that's the operating profit that came back to BNSF associated with its underlying operations. That operating margin improved by 2.5%, 250 basis points. That's a very positive outcome, obviously. By the way, in fairness to our team, that's the work they've been putting in. That on a nominal basis, that was the largest improvement across the 5 peers. We're pleased with that, but we know there's a lot of work to be done.
我们认识到,对于这样的业绩表现,正如我所说,我们的团队已经付出了巨大努力,但依然存在很大的提升空间。好消息是,如果看 2025 年的数据——屏幕上展示的是营业利润率(operating margin),大家看到 Berkshire 对应的 34.5%,就是 BNSF 底层运营所创造的营业利润率。这一营业利润率提升了 2.5 个百分点,即 250 个基点。这显然是一个非常积极的成果。顺便说一句,公道地讲,这正是我们团队辛勤付出的成果。从绝对变动幅度来看,这是与另外 5 家同行相比最大的提升幅度。我们对此感到欣慰,但也深知还有大量工作要做。
P04140:06
If you look at our first quarter results, happy to report that, okay, we went from fifth to fourth, but our team would be the first to say there's a lot more to be done. If you look at our overall operating margin there, very consistent with the result last year, and the efficiency we've delivered is being maintained and improved versus the quarter over the quarter of 2025. Again, we see a lot of opportunity here to continue to get better. To achieve where, say, Union Pacific is as a leader at, with an operating margin of 39.5%, we know that's gonna require a step change, both as how we're operating, but even how we approach our operations.
如果再看我们今年第一季度的业绩,我很高兴地向大家汇报,我们的排名从第 5 位升至第 4 位,但我们的团队会第一个站出来说,还有太多工作要做。看我们第一季度的整体营业利润率,与去年全年的水平非常一致,而且相比 2025 年第一季度,我们所实现的效率提升得到了保持并进一步改善。同样,我们认为这里仍有很大机会继续向好。要想达到行业领头羊 Union Pacific 那样 39.5% 的营业利润率水平,我们深知这需要一次阶跃式的变革(step change),不仅在于我们日常如何运营,甚至在于我们切入和思考运营的方式。
被引用:↩ 基本面档案 · 投资要点↩ FY2026Q2 季度复盘 · 电话会要点 · 经营与产品进展↩ FY2026Q2 季度复盘 · 管理层口径变化↩ FY2026Q3 季度复盘 · 电话会要点 · 经营与产品进展↩ FY2026Q3 季度复盘 · 叙事 vs 报表↩ FY2026Q1 电话会解析 · 管理层发言解析 · Greg Abel|总裁兼 CEO↩ FY2026Q1 电话会解析 · 问答解析 · 6. BNSF 铁路运营效率(Operating Ratio)改善与同业差距(开场专题 & Manjap Singh)↩ FY2026Q1 电话会解析 · 回避与未回答↩ FY2026Q1 电话会解析 · 对投资判断的含义↩ 指引与语气 · 核心结论↩ 指引与语气 · 指引演变 · BNSF 铁路盈利修复与效率追赶 ×2
P04241:03
An important step that we've or something we've identified, we like to identify the gaps and where we can get better, is technology. We're doing a lot at BNSF, and I'll touch on our other businesses here when I go through technology. That's where we see a step change or potentially where a few of our peers have gapped out versus how we're using technology. I'm gonna back up to GEICO, and then I'll come back to BNSF. 'Cause it was approximately 4 years ago, I was in a GEICO meeting with our management team there, and they were discussing this price to risk and segmenting customers. We had our operational team from GEICO. They had the commercial team, but they had the tech team there.
我们喜欢找出差距以及能够改进的地方,而我们已经明确的一个重要突破口就是技术。我们在 BNSF 围绕技术做了很多工作,借着聊技术的机会,我也会谈谈我们旗下的其他业务。技术正是我们看到能够带来阶跃式变革的领域,或者说也是少数同行在技术应用上与我们拉开差距的地方。我先退一步回到 GEICO,然后再讲回 BNSF。因为大约在 4 年前,我参加了 GEICO 管理团队的一次会议,当时他们正在讨论风险定价与客户分层。到场的不仅有 GEICO 的运营团队和商务团队,还有他们的技术团队。
P04341:57
They're often there and you're looking for some help. What I heard in that discussion was a clear technology transformation that was happening at GEICO. It was obvious that the technology was going to be a big part of the solution as GEICO tackled their certain challenges. As that meeting wrapped up, I very much wanted to spend more time with the technology team to understand what was driving this. They were calling it a technology transformation, 'cause I could see that it was so applicable to what we were gonna do, what we needed to do and what we would pursue across our non-insurance businesses. What is this technology transformation that they described at GEICO? I'll summarize it in a few different ways.
通常技术团队参会是因为业务部门需要寻求支持,但我在那场讨论中听到的,是一场正在 GEICO 内部发生的清晰的“技术转型”(technology transformation)。显而易见,在 GEICO 应对特定挑战的过程中,技术将成为解决方案的核心组成部分。那次会议结束后,我非常希望能花更多时间与技术团队深入交流,搞清楚背后的驱动力是什么。他们称之为“技术转型”,而我一眼就能看出,这套逻辑高度适用于我们在各个非保险业务中即将开展、必须开展以及想要推进的工作。那么,他们在 GEICO 所描述的这场技术转型究竟是什么?我从几个不同维度来概括一下。
P04442:51
First and foremost, we recognized we were going to become a builder of technology rather than just a buyer of technology. That meant that instead of we had a number of systems and we often bought the related applications or software that came with it. Yes, it's a valued application, but it was disconnected from all our systems obviously. We didn't have that ability to then use the information, get to the data. What they started to talk about is simplifying the infrastructure, making sure we would build what we needed ourselves and deliver solutions back to our customers, and we would have clear access to the data. All things that make a lot of sense, but a massive challenge, and it doesn't happen overnight, and we're still on that journey at GEICO in year five, there's no question.
首先也是最重要的一点,我们认识到自己必须成为技术的“建设者”(builder),而不仅仅是技术的“采购者”(buyer)。过去,我们拥有众多系统,而且往往直接采购随之配套的相关应用程序或软件。诚然,那些应用程序本身很有价值,但它们显然与我们的其他系统彼此割裂。这导致我们无法有效利用其中的信息、无法真正调取底层数据。因此,技术团队开始探讨精简底层架构,确保由我们自己动手构建所需的功能,向客户交付解决方案,并让我们能够清晰、顺畅地调取数据。这一切听起来都非常合理,但做起来却是一项极其浩大的挑战,不可能一蹴而就;毫无疑问,如今到了第 5 个年头,GEICO 依然走在这条转型征途上。
P04543:47
Quickly recognized that this could be used across our other businesses. Very fortunate that at GEICO they had put their leadership team in place to drive forward this transformation. The most senior leader, then, came from GEICO, joined our non-insurance operations, took on a senior leadership role, the leadership role helping us with the technology transformation at Berkshire Hathaway Energy, and then also as a senior technology officer at BNSF. We started down that journey, and one of the first things you have to do is say, "Okay, we need a different resource base." Now we're hiring engineers, we hire developers in our technology group that help us start to build the solutions we need for these businesses, and it's going beyond GEICO now.
我们很快意识到,这套做法可以推广到旗下的其他业务中。非常幸运的是,GEICO 当时已经组建起了推动这场转型的领导团队。随后,其中级别最高的那位技术负责人从 GEICO 调任至我们的非保险业务板块,担任高级领导职务——不仅牵头负责 Berkshire Hathaway Energy 的技术转型,同时还兼任 BNSF 的高级技术官。我们就此踏上了这段征程,而首先要做的第一件事就是明确:“好,我们需要一套不同的人才资源班底。”如今,我们在技术团队中招聘工程师、招聘开发人员,帮助我们着手为这些业务自主构建所需的解决方案,而且这一模式现在已经走出了 GEICO,向更多业务延伸。
P04644:46
We still have our valued employees there and they may be retraining or transitioning to other roles, but the reality is we need less people managing the applications and the software and more people building outcomes that our businesses need. When I asked our team, "Well, how does AI fit into this artificial intelligence?" Well, it's actually a big piece of this 'cause it's effectively what goes on top of a lot of our systems, and that's what they're building. They're using AI to build applications, and that's all great, but we also know there's certain risks around humanity, there's risks and there's the broader risk for globally and for the country. There's also risks within our businesses.
我们原有的宝贵员工依然留在团队中,他们可能会接受再培训或转岗到其他职位,但现实情况是,我们需要更少的人去单纯管理现成的应用程序和软件,而需要更多的人去直接开发构建业务所需的实际成果。当我问团队:“那么,AI(人工智能)在其中扮演什么角色?”实际上,它是其中很大的一部分,因为它本质上就是架设在我们众多系统之上的那一层能力,也是团队正在构建的核心。他们正在利用 AI 开发各类应用,这固然很好;但我们也深知,AI 伴随着关乎人类社会的某些风险,存在着全球层面和国家层面的更广泛风险,同时在我们的企业经营内部也存在着风险。
P04745:36
As they just start heading down this path, I said, "Well, okay, how should we think about this? How are we How should we all be comfortable we're approaching this correctly?" They said, "Well, we don't really like to call it artificial intelligence." They call it narrow artificial intelligence. They have three really important principles associated with it. The first one was that, yes, we're using it, and we'll use it with these engineers we have and these highly skilled individuals we've brought in, but how are we gonna manage it? Well, the first thing was that we still have our employees, our senior management team involved in implementing the recommendations that we then receive associated with the architecture, the framework they put in place.
因此在他们刚刚踏上这条道路时,我就问:“好吧,我们应该如何看待这件事?我们大家要怎样才能确信自己正以正确的方式推进?”他们回答说:“其实我们不太喜欢直接叫它人工智能(artificial intelligence)。”他们称之为“窄人工智能”(narrow artificial intelligence,即专用人工智能),并围绕它确立了 3 条非常重要的原则。第 1 条原则是:没错,我们正在使用它,并且会由我们现有的工程师和引进的高技能人才来使用它,但我们该如何管理它呢?首先第 1 点,在落实基于他们搭建的架构与框架所生成的各项建议时,我们的员工和高级管理团队依然全程参与其中。
P04846:29
There may be things that still occur and should occur just like they did within our systems or within that, as it moves up and the important decisions are being made, there's human involvement. Our managers, our employees are involved, and that's part of the governance that's effectively in place. The second piece is what they call the safeguard, and the safeguard is very intriguing because right away, of course, we all want good governance. We want that in place. What's that mean? Our team said, "Okay, here's how I would describe it. If we ask for an outcome, we want a recommendation or an action, and we ask it now and then half hour later we ask, do we get the exact same outcome?
有些常规流程可能依然会像过去在传统系统中那样自动运行,而且也理应如此;但当涉及更高层级、需要做出重要决策时,必须有人类的参与。我们的管理人员和员工都会介入其中,这本身就是已落实到位的治理机制的一部分。第 2 条原则是他们所称的“安全护栏”(safeguard)。这个安全护栏非常耐人寻味,因为毫无疑问,我们所有人都希望立即建立起良好的治理机制。但具体到操作层面这意味着什么?我们的团队是这样解释的:“好,我是这样定义的:如果我们向系统请求一个结果——比如需要一项建议或行动方案——我们现在提问一次,半小时后再问一次,我们能否得到完全一致的结果?
P04947:18
If we can receive that same outcome, we're effectively the safeguard. We know we're utilizing that application properly, and importantly, it means we've got a defined data set that we're comfortable with. I like to call it the constraint. We know we're constraining our data. We know what data we're using, and we know what data's coming in. When you talk about all the operations that we're focused on, yes, the next day of operations come in and it updates that data set and we may get a if we ask the question the day later, we'll get a marginally different answer. It's got new information. If we ask it, "Well, if you ignore today's information and just focused on yesterday, do we get the same answer?" Yes. We call that our safeguard.
如果我们能得到完全相同的结果,那就说明安全护栏实质上发挥了作用。这表明我们正在正确地使用该应用程序,而且更重要的是,这意味着我们拥有一个边界明确、让我们放心的数据集。我更喜欢把它叫做“约束机制”(constraint):我们清楚自己对数据设定了边界约束,清楚自己正在使用什么数据,也清楚有什么数据正在流入。当我们聚焦于各项日常运营时,到了第二天,新的运营数据流进来并更新了数据集,如果我们隔天再问同一个问题,由于有了新信息,我们可能会得到一个略有差异的答案。但如果我们要求系统:‘忽略今天的新信息,只基于昨天的数据,我们还能得到一模一样的答案吗?’答案是肯定的。我们就把这称为我们的安全护栏。
P05048:12
The third thing on technology and associated with this narrow AI is it has to be additive to our businesses. We're not gonna do AI for the sake of AI. You can spend a lot of money in this area, and we need to know what we're trying to achieve and do we see a valued proposition for the businesses. That's what we call narrow AI. If you see how it's starting to be applied at BNSF, it's incredible. If I think of BNSF, we have the expansive network I touched on.
关于技术以及窄 AI 的第 3 条原则是,它必须对我们的业务产生实实在在的增益(additive)。我们绝不会为了搞 AI 而搞 AI。在这个领域你可以轻易花掉大把的钱,因此我们必须清楚自己想要达成什么目标,以及是否看到了对业务真正有价值的回报。这就是我们所说的窄 AI。如果你看到它如今在 BNSF 开始落地应用的方式,简直令人惊叹。就拿 BNSF 来说,我们拥有刚才提到的那张广袤的铁路网络。
P05148:58
We have a variety of trains leaving from a variety of points every day I've touched on, it can be the intermodal trains of 150 to 200 on our tracks a day, which are moving very quickly and often leaving L.A. to deliver product in Chicago 48 hours later. It can be in the last quarter, we had more than 750 trains a day moving across that system. There's weather or there's equipment failures. We share our tracks. We allow Amtrak to use them. They can be running on time, or they can be running behind schedule. We have to adjust all to that. The reality is, Katie and her team have a system that's been running for 177 years, we were not there in how we could use technology to operate that better.
正如我之前提到的,我们每天都有各种各样的列车从不同的站点出发,比如每天在我们的轨道上运行的 150 到 200 列多式联运列车,它们行驶速度非常快,通常从洛杉矶出发,48 小时后就能把货物送到芝加哥。又比如在上个季度,我们每天有超过 750 列火车在整个铁路网中运行。期间会遇到天气问题或设备故障。我们共用轨道,允许 Amtrak 使用我们的轨道。它们可能准点运行,也可能晚点。我们必须对所有这些情况做出调整。现实情况是,Katie 和她的团队管理的这套系统已经运行了 177 年,而在如何利用技术更好地运营这套系统方面,我们此前还没有到位。
P05249:50
That's what we're using, or we've just started down the path of, that's how we know we'll see that step change in our operating performance. Now, to summarize it, all that, but I wanna let you know it's all around operational excellence. We are gonna get better at rail, but we're gonna use that framework across all of our businesses. They very much will create the framework, and then our teams can embrace it if they so choose, and we'll help them see the value of it. There is an opportunity there. I'll break it down with one last comment around technology. When you think of artificial intelligence, everybody talks about the large language models and, okay, they're learning models, and there's a lot more to it than I just highlighted.
这就是我们正在使用的,或者说我们刚刚开始走上的道路,也是我们确信能够看到运营绩效实现阶跃式提升的原因。现在总结一下这一切,我想让大家知道,这一切都围绕着卓越运营展开。我们在铁路业务上会做得更好,而且我们会将这一框架推广到我们所有的业务中。他们很大程度上会建立起这个框架,然后我们的各个团队如果愿意就可以采纳它,我们也会帮助他们看到其中的价值。这里面蕴含着机遇。关于技术,我最后再补充一点来拆解一下。当想到人工智能时,每个人都在谈论大语言模型,好吧,它们是学习模型,而且其中包含的内容远比我刚才强调的要多得多。
P05350:39
I summarize it as one thing, and this is why there's an opportunity across all our businesses. Those large language models, I really communicate them, and I communicate them to our teams, or at least it helps me understand it. They're large logic models. At this point in time, we're using it to solve logical challenges in our business. What we're trying to do it is in a more efficient fashion, you do it more quickly and get to a better answer. That was a lot in technology, but it touches the whole franchise of Berkshire. If I move to energy now, and provide an update there, I'm just gonna touch on the opportunity first and then come to the challenges. 'Cause as I've just discussed technology, that's the opportunity in energy.
我把它总结为一件事,这也是为什么我们所有业务都存在机遇的原因。那些大语言模型,我在向我们的团队传达时——或者至少这有助于我自己理解——把它们称为大型逻辑模型(large logic models)。目前,我们正在利用它来解决业务中的逻辑挑战。我们正努力以更高效的方式来做这件事,做得更快,并得出更好的答案。以上谈了很多关于技术的内容,但它触及了 Berkshire 的整个业务版图。如果我现在转向能源板块并提供最新情况,我会先谈谈机遇,然后再谈挑战。因为正如我刚才讨论了技术,那正是能源业务面临的机遇。
P05451:33
One of the core inputs to all those data centers, hyperscalers associated with artificial intelligence is energy. Our businesses have that opportunity in front of them at Berkshire Hathaway Energy. Yes, we're pursuing them, and we'll do it. I'll touch on it in a way we view as the right approach for both our states and our customers. I would highlight it's not new to us. If you just go across the river a little bit east to Iowa, we serve just under 50% of that state. If you look at the number of data centers and hyperscalers in that state, it's very significant. We have 4 very large hyperscalers, data centers there or builders of them and ultimately their customers using it.
所有那些与人工智能相关的数据中心和超大规模云服务商(hyperscalers),它们的核心投入要素之一就是能源。我们在 Berkshire Hathaway Energy 的业务面前就摆着这样的机遇。是的,我们正在把握这些机遇,而且我们会去落实。我稍后会谈到,我们会以一种我们认为对所在各州和客户都正确的方式来推进。我想强调的是,这对我们来说并不新鲜。如果你只是跨过河向东走一点到爱荷华州,我们服务了该州略低于 50% 的地区。如果你看看那个州的数据中心和超大规模云服务商的数量,那是非常可观的。我们在那里有 4 家非常大型的超大规模云服务商、数据中心或其建造商,以及最终使用它们的客户。
P05552:23
If I look at our peak load, i.e., the amount of energy being used from those data centers, it's at 8% of their peak load. The only reason I highlight that 8% is when I hear people in the industry and all the utilities around us, a lot of states, they're talking about this great opportunity. Jeez, hopefully, in the next 5 years, they'll be from a relatively starting point. They want to get to the 5%-10%, and we're already at 8, and we see opportunities to grow that by 50% over the next 5 years or potentially more. We'll do it in a way, and you're starting to hear more and more of this across the U.S. We'll do it in a way where we're not going to impact the costs of our other customers.
如果看我们的峰值负荷,也就是那些数据中心所使用的能源量,它占到了峰值负荷的 8%。我之所以特别强调这个 8%,是因为当我听到业内人士以及我们周围所有的公用事业公司、很多州在谈论这个巨大机遇时,天哪,他们希望在未来 5 年内从相对起步的阶段达到 5%-10%,而我们已经达到了 8%,并且我们看到在未来 5 年内有机会将其再增长 50% 甚至更多。而且我们会以一种不会影响其他客户成本的方式来做这件事——你开始在全美各地越来越多地听到这种做法。
P05653:12
These users of the, i.e., those, the hyperscalers, the data centers, and the users of the energy, they have to bear their full cost. We can't transfer that burden across all our other customers. That's a principle we've applied across all our utilities and from the very early goings when we're building these data centers. I would highlight, I think our team's doing an exceptional job of that. If I, again, go back to MidAmerican, if you look at their with all the data centers and hyperscalers and the infrastructure they put in place, their rates are still 45% below the national average. That's just unheard of. It's an exceptional outcome, and it just highlights they're doing the right things when they build this infrastructure, or it's a part of it.
这些能源的使用者,也就是那些超大规模云服务商、数据中心以及能源用户,他们必须承担自己的全部成本。我们不能把这种负担转嫁给所有其他客户。这是我们在所有公用事业公司中一贯秉持的原则,从我们建设这些数据中心的最早期阶段起就是如此。我想强调,我认为我们的团队在这方面做得非常出色。如果我再次回到 MidAmerican 的例子,看看他们那里所有的数据中心、超大规模云服务商以及他们建设的基础设施,他们的电价仍然比全国平均水平低 45%。这简直闻所未闻。这是一个极其出色的结果,也凸显出他们在建设这些基础设施时做了正确的事,或者说这是其中的一部分。
P05754:02
We would highlight we have similar positive outcomes across the rest of our utilities. I would note one other thing. Our gas network or our infrastructure there, our large pipeline company we have there, as they build out all this infrastructure, not just in our utilities, but across the U.S., our pipeline footprint will grow. A lot of it's being built by natural gas and we'll meet that challenge. Here's an interesting point. 15% of the gas consumed in the natural gas consumed in the United States is touched by our pipeline network or one of our core assets there. Again, that's the opportunity on the energy side. It's not without its challenges, and we've talked about this the past few years. When I think of the Berkshire Hathaway Energy, what's the challenge?
我们要强调的是,在我们其余的公用事业公司中也有类似的积极成果。我还要指出另一件事。我们的天然气网络或那里的基础设施,即我们旗下的大型管道公司,随着各地建设所有这些基础设施——不仅是在我们的公用事业公司内部,而是遍及全美——我们的管道网络覆盖范围将会增长。其中很大一部分是通过天然气发电来建设的,我们将迎接这一挑战。这里有一个很有意思的数据:全美消耗的天然气中,有 15% 会经过我们的管道网络或我们在那里的核心资产之一。再说一次,这是能源方面的机遇。但这并非没有挑战,过去几年我们也谈到过这一点。当我思考 Berkshire Hathaway Energy 时,挑战是什么?
P05854:56
It's what I call the regulatory compact. We leave your capital, our owner's capital, Berkshire's capital in these businesses. Often a portion of the earnings that they generate, we may reinvest back into those businesses. For that, we get a very specific set of return. It's a fair, it's over the long run, it's been a very balanced and fair return. How do you measure that? It's versus the risks we take on in that business. That's the compact. Okay, you're going to pay us X% return and what risks are you asking us to take? That model has worked very good for a number of years and for centuries. The problem is it's becoming more stressed. If you think of inflation, if you think of the data center challenges, but I strongly believe we're managing that separately.
就是我所说的监管契约(regulatory compact)。我们把你们的资本、我们所有者的资本、Berkshire 的资本留在这些企业中。通常它们产生的一部分收益,我们可能会再投资回这些企业。作为回报,我们获得非常明确的回报率。从长期来看,这一直是一个非常平衡且公平的回报。你如何衡量这一点?就是拿它与我们在该业务中承担的风险相比。这就是契约:好吧,你们付给我们 X% 的回报率,那么你们要求我们承担什么风险?这种模式在很多年甚至几个世纪以来都运转得非常好。问题在于,它现在正承受越来越大的压力。如果你考虑到通货膨胀,考虑到数据中心带来的挑战——但我坚信我们正在将那部分分开管理。
P05955:55
Then you move to assets that are 60-100 years old that are starting to retire. We bring those into the network. The challenge is every day to get more efficient, more effective from the operational side. As a regulator, as a governor, you're very focused on, I don't want my rates to go up. I don't want to take on more risk. They want to transfer that back to us. That's the regulatory compact. Unless that exists, we do not, if we don't see that balance, we don't deploy our capital back into those businesses or into those utilities. We work hard to maintain it. There's been a very important challenge we've had within that. We've touched on in the past too. That's wildfires. Wildfires in the West, very prevalent the last 15+ years in California.
然后还有那些已经使用了 60-100 年、开始退役的老旧资产。我们要把新资产接入电网。每天的挑战就是从运营层面变得更高效、更有效。作为监管机构、作为州长,他们非常关注的是:我不希望我的电价上涨,我也不想承担更多风险。他们想把这些风险转嫁回给我们。这就是监管契约的问题。除非这种契约存在,如果我们看不到这种平衡,我们就不会把资本再投入到那些业务或那些公用事业公司中。我们努力维护这种平衡。在这其中,我们面临过一个非常重要的挑战,过去我们也提到过,那就是野火。西部的野火,在过去 15 年以上的时间里在加利福尼亚州非常普遍。
P06056:48
We experienced a very significant wildfire in Oregon in 2020 or a number of wildfires across Oregon, but we being the state, but also the company. There were a number of wildfires across the state. We had certain equipment, certain high winds. We had certain failures with our equipment that contributed to those fires. Associated with that, we fully acknowledged where there was causation and where we were responsible for it. There was also associated with some of the fires and specifically 1 fire, a class action lawsuit that had very large claims against our utility there, PacifiCorp. We had to approach it such that we'd resolve all the other matters, but that was a class action. There was specifically 1 fire that we strongly felt we weren't responsible for. There was 0 causation.
我们在 2020 年在俄勒冈州经历了一场非常严重的野火,或者说是遍及俄勒冈州的多起野火——这里说的“我们”既指该州,也指公司。全州范围内发生了多起野火。当时遇到了强风,我们的一些设备出现了某些故障,助长了那些火灾。与此相关,凡是存在因果关系且我们负有责任的地方,我们都完全承认。此外,与其中一些火灾、特别是 1 起火灾相关的,还有针对我们在当地的公用事业公司 PacifiCorp 提出巨额索赔的集体诉讼。我们采取的处理方式是解决所有其他事项,但那是一起集体诉讼。其中特定有 1 起火灾,我们强烈认为我们没有责任,存在 0 因果关系。
P06157:49
There was an Oregon Department of Forestry report that said that PacifiCorp did not contribute nor cause the fire. We took a very strong position there that one, we were not going to put more capital in to fund the entity and these type of risks and these type of obligations. Secondly, we would challenge that liability verdict. We challenged it. It's been a long process. As owners and shareholders, and this was a very significant event that occurred in this past quarter or occurred in April. We're very fortunate that it was up to the appellate court. They reversed and remanded that liability verdict and said back to ground zero, start over again. What they're really saying was that that class of customers and who did we actually affect and where was the causation that will be revisited and then the related damages.
俄勒冈州林业局(Oregon Department of Forestry)有一份报告指出,PacifiCorp 既没有助长也没有引发那场火灾。我们在这一问题上采取了非常强硬的立场:第一,我们不会再注入更多资本来为该实体以及这类风险和这类债务提供资金;第二,我们将对那项责任裁决提出上诉挑战。我们提出了挑战,这是一个漫长的过程。作为所有者和股东,这是在上个季度或者说在 4 月份发生的一个非常重大的事件。我们非常幸运,案件上诉到了上诉法院。他们推翻并发回了那项责任裁决,表示回到原点(ground zero),重新开始。他们真正表达的意思是,那个客户群体、我们实际上影响了谁、以及因果关系在哪里,这些都将被重新审视,然后才是相关的损害赔偿。
被引用:↩ 基本面档案 · 投资要点↩ 基本面档案 · 主要风险 · 公用事业野火连带诉讼与监管恶化风险↩ FY2026Q2 季度复盘 · 电话会要点 · 风险与挑战↩ FY2026Q2 季度复盘 · 叙事 vs 报表↩ FY2026Q3 季度复盘 · 电话会要点 · 风险与挑战↩ FY2026Q3 季度复盘 · 叙事 vs 报表↩ 估值 · 分部加总 SOTP↩ FY2026Q2 老唐风格精评 · 三、拆业务:几头现金奶牛各自吃饱了没?↩ FY2026Q1 电话会解析 · 核心判断↩ FY2026Q1 电话会解析 · 问答解析 · 5. 伯克希尔能源(BHE)公用事业资本开支、野火风险与监管契约(开场专题 & Kansas Lohmeier & 匿名股东 / Becky Quick)↩ FY2026Q1 电话会解析 · 措辞与语气信号↩ FY2026Q1 电话会解析 · 对投资判断的含义 ×2↩ 指引与语气 · 核心结论↩ 指引与语气 · 指引演变 · 伯克希尔能源(BHE)野火风险与公用事业回报
P06258:53
Some positive things associated with it. We recover $1 billion of security we've already posted. The people, the law firms that pursued it are responsible for our costs associated that period of time. Not our litigation costs, but the costs we incurred in posting the bonds or posting that security. That's $10 million or approaching likely $10 million. The most important thing is we've reset the stage there. That's very important because we're working hard to get that regulatory compact balanced and getting the right outcome. We do want to see these utilities move forward. We want to be a very good operator and steward of those assets for our customers. The last thing I'll just touch on wildfires. When you think of PacifiCorp, yes, we've addressed that challenge. To get the right compact, we've worked with Wyoming, Idaho.
与此相关还有一些积极的事情。我们收回了此前已经交纳的 10 亿美元担保金。发起诉讼的人和律师事务所要承担我们在那段时间相关的成本——不是我们的诉讼费,而是我们在交纳保函或交纳那笔担保金时产生的成本,那是 1,000 万美元,或者可能接近 1,000 万美元。最重要的一点是,我们在那里重置了局面。这非常重要,因为我们正在努力让监管契约恢复平衡并取得正确的结果。我们确实希望看到这些公用事业公司继续向前发展。我们希望为客户做好这些资产的优秀运营者和管理者。关于野火我最后再提一点。当你想到 PacifiCorp 时,是的,我们已经应对了那项挑战。为了达成合理的监管契约,我们已经与怀俄明州、爱达荷州展开了合作。
被引用:↩ 基本面档案 · 投资要点↩ FY2026Q2 季度复盘 · 电话会要点 · 风险与挑战↩ FY2026Q2 季度复盘 · 叙事 vs 报表↩ FY2026Q3 季度复盘 · 电话会要点 · 风险与挑战↩ FY2026Q3 季度复盘 · 叙事 vs 报表↩ FY2026Q2 老唐风格精评 · 三、拆业务:几头现金奶牛各自吃饱了没?↩ FY2026Q1 电话会解析 · 核心判断↩ FY2026Q1 电话会解析 · 问答解析 · 5. 伯克希尔能源(BHE)公用事业资本开支、野火风险与监管契约(开场专题 & Kansas Lohmeier & 匿名股东 / Becky Quick)↩ FY2026Q1 电话会解析 · 措辞与语气信号↩ FY2026Q1 电话会解析 · 对投资判断的含义↩ 指引与语气 · 核心结论↩ 指引与语气 · 指引演变 · 伯克希尔能源(BHE)野火风险与公用事业回报
P06359:51
I've touched on Utah on this stage to say it requires a judicial system that supports the legislature, the laws in place. More importantly, we all or as importantly, we need good legislation that then sets that that balance. We've had it across those states and we'll continue to work hard across our other states. An exceptional outcome and and wanted to make sure, you know, there's still a lot to be done there because we're back to the very first back to 1st base on the on the legal proceedings. Now, moving to our manufacturing and servicing businesses. There's a the this highlights our blues, the manufacturing group that represents approximately 70% of that group and the service and retailing groups in the in the gray or beige.
我曾在这个台上提到过犹他州,指出这需要一个支持立法机构和现行法律的司法体系。更重要的是,或者同样重要的是,我们需要良好的立法来确立那种平衡。我们在上述几个州已经实现了这一点,并且我们将继续在其他州努力推进。这是一个极好的结果,不过我也想确保大家明白,那里还有很多工作要做,因为在法律程序上我们回到了最开始的第 1 垒(1st base)。现在,转向我们的制造和服务业务。这张图里蓝色部分突出显示的是制造业务集团,约占该板块的 70%,而服务和零售业务集团则是灰色或米色部分。
P0641:00:53
I like to think of when you think of our manufacturing group, we've got three groups there. We have our industrial group. We have our building products group and we have our Consumer Products. The Consumer Products servicing and retailing, as I've touched on, is now under Adam Johnson. We're fortunate to have Adam as our leader there. He's managing 32 of those companies and we'll have him on stage and we'll expand on that more. I go back to those, a few of those core manufacturing groups, I'll start with the industrial group. Even when I think of the industrial group, I like to break it down into a couple other groups. It's, it's a good way to think of our businesses, and that's why I want to share it. Within the industrial group, we have a metals group that is very strong. There's three businesses.
当你想到我们的制造业务集团时,我习惯把它分为三个子集团:工业品集团、建筑产品集团以及消费品集团。正如我之前提到的,消费品、服务和零售业务现在由 Adam Johnson 负责。我们很幸运有 Adam 担任那里的负责人。他管理着其中的 32 家公司,稍后我们会请他上台,并就此展开更多介绍。回到那几个核心制造业务集团,我先从工业品集团说起。即便在考虑工业品集团时,我也喜欢把它进一步拆分为几个小组。这是理解我们业务的一种好方法,所以我希望分享给大家。在工业品集团内部,我们有一个实力非常强劲的金属业务组,包含三家企业。
P0651:01:47
We have Precision Castparts. It's a business we acquired 10 years ago in 2016. It's run by Mark Donegan, who was the CEO when we acquired the business. He continues to run it today. As owners and shareholders, we're very fortunate to have Mark in that position. He understands Precision Castparts inside and out. He understands the industry. Very much works towards delivering solutions for our customers. The second important part of our metals group is a business called IMC. They're our International Metalworking Companies. You can hear the management team over there. It's really interesting to see that company. One, they make the tools that remove steel. They'll take a cylinder of steel, they create the tools. That gets utilized in a variety of other industries.
我们有 Precision Castparts。这是我们在 10 年前也就是 2016 年收购的一家企业,由 Mark Donegan 掌管,我们在收购这家企业时他就是首席执行官,如今他继续管理着这家公司。作为所有者和股东,我们非常幸运能有 Mark 担任这一职务。他对 Precision Castparts 了如指掌,深刻理解这个行业,并且全心全意致力于为我们的客户提供解决方案。我们金属业务组的第二个重要部分是一家叫 IMC 的企业,也就是我们的 International Metalworking Companies(国际金属加工公司)。你们可以听到那边的管理团队的声音。观察这家公司真的很有意思。首先,他们制造切削钢材的工具。他们拿起一根钢柱,制造出切削工具,然后这些工具被广泛应用于其他各种行业。
P0661:02:53
It can be the aerospace, like a Precision Castparts, and I'll touch on that, or it can be another industry like the auto. If you think of what's happening in the aerospace industry, and this is why Precision Castparts and IMC has such a significant backlog, or I'm highlighting a backlog. If we look at what Boeing just announced last quarter or this quarter, but just recently, their number of planes that they delivered went up by 11% quarter-on-quarter. That's phenomenal, and they're talking about even doing more. Very similar results at Airbus, and that's who Precision Castparts serves, and also, often IMC serves that industry. That's remarkable. If you hear the backlog in this space, it's 10 years. I did ask our team the simple question.
既可以是像 Precision Castparts 所在的航空航天业——我稍后会谈到——也可以是像汽车这样的其他行业。如果你想想航空航天业正在发生的事情,这就是为什么 Precision Castparts 和 IMC 拥有如此庞大的积压订单(backlog),或者说我为什么要强调积压订单。如果我们看看 Boeing 上个季度或这个季度、也就是最近刚刚宣布的数据,他们交付的飞机数量环比增长了 11%。这非常了不起,而且他们还在谈论要交付更多。Airbus 的业绩也非常相似,而他们正是 Precision Castparts 服务的对象,同时 IMC 也经常服务于这个行业。这非常了不起。如果你听说过这个领域的积压订单规模,那是长达 10 年的积压订单。我确实问过我们团队一个简单的问题。
P0671:03:50
I go, "Well, is that many more people really flying?" Like, I get it, we're post-COVID, and it's building up, and I sort of obviously knew part of the answer, but it's really remarkable why there that demand. A lot of us know this, but the reality is to see what's driving it is the efficiency of those planes and engines is so great now that it's better to buy the new plane and retire the old plane. What you have is this 10-year backlog that we're seeing a very similar backlog across our metal businesses when you touch on a Precision Castparts or IMC. The third piece of the metal groups, and by the way, I should just touch on this. We acquired IMC basically 10 years before Precision Castparts.
我问:“真的有那么多新增的人在坐飞机吗?”我明白现在是疫情后,需求在恢复,而且我显然也知道一部分答案,但为什么会有那么大的需求,真的很值得注意。我们很多人都知道这一点,但现实情况是,真正驱动需求的因素在于,现在那些新飞机和新发动机的效率太高了,以至于购买新飞机并淘汰老旧飞机要划算得多。因此就形成了这 10 年的积压订单,而当谈到 Precision Castparts 或 IMC 时,我们在旗下的金属业务中也看到了非常相似的积压订单。金属业务组的第三块——顺便提一句,我应该先说一下这个:我们收购 IMC 的时间基本上比收购 Precision Castparts 早 10 年。
P0681:04:46
You go back to a 2006 timeline, we acquired 80% of it. Again, we're very fortunate to have the senior leader there, Jacob Harpaz, who was at the business, the senior leader running it back then and still runs it today. If I look at how Precision Castparts and IMC works together, Precision Castparts is now, if not, but very likely IMC's number 1 customer. We have them working on joint solutions. I'll move to that 3rd group. In 2022, we acquired Alleghany, and we're fortunate to have that in the family now and a very good addition. Along came, also with it came 3 non-insurance businesses. There were a variety of other ones that are tucked into the appropriate place in other businesses.
如果追溯到 2006 年的时间线,当时我们收购了它 80% 的股份。同样,我们非常幸运能有资深领导者 Jacob Harpaz 在那里,他当时就是掌管这家企业的高管,如今依然在管理着它。如果看看 Precision Castparts 和 IMC 是如何协同工作的,Precision Castparts 现在即便还不是、也极有可能是 IMC 的第 1 大客户。我们让他们合作开发联合解决方案。接下来我谈谈金属组的第 3 家企业。2022 年,我们收购了 Alleghany,我们很幸运现在能将它纳入麾下,这是一项非常好的补充。随同它一起进来的还有 3 家非保险企业,以及另外多家被归入其他业务板块合适位置的企业。
P0691:05:38
One of them that stood alone was WW Steel. It was a family-founded company. It had transitioned to Rick Cooper. He's here over in the manager section. He's the CEO. It's a remarkable business. Basically, they contribute steel into a variety of core infrastructures. It can be bridges, it can be stadiums, it can be arenas. Their most famous one is the Las Vegas Sphere. Here we bought an insurance company, and Warren has touched on this. We sort of had these nice add-ons that I'm not sure we spent a lot of time valuing that side of it. Incredible additions to the Berkshire family, and that really comprises the metals group. Now, if we move to the second group is the chemical group we have within the industrial sector.
其中独立运营的一家就是 WW Steel。它原本是一家家族创立的公司,后来交接给了 Rick Cooper。他今天就在那边的经理人专区,担任首席执行官。这是一家了不起的企业。基本上,他们为各种核心基础设施供应钢结构,可以是桥梁、体育场或室内场馆。他们最著名的项目就是 Las Vegas Sphere(拉斯维加斯球形剧场)。你看,我们本来是收购了一家保险公司——Warren 之前也提到过这一点——却附带获得了这些很好的额外资产,我甚至不确定我们当时在评估那部分价值上花了多少时间。它们是 Berkshire 大家庭中令人赞叹的新成员,这三家企业共同构成了金属业务组。现在,我们转向工业板块内部的第二个子集团,即化工业务组。
P0701:06:37
We have three of those. We have Lubrizol going back to 2011. We've touched on that business many times. We acquired OxyChem last year. Associated with OxyChem, we announced the acquisition. We closed it on January 2. Very nice addition. I would say they produce two core commodities, so it's more a commodity chemical business, and they're valued commodities in the, again, industrial sector, their plants can't be replicated. That would not be easy. We've got valuable assets. The third piece of the chemical group is a company called LSPI, and I'm just highlighting it because it's a real gem for our owner shareholders. What it does is it creates a drag reduction agent that allows oil to move through a pipeline.
我们在化工组也有三家企业。首先是追溯到 2011 年收购的 Lubrizol,这家企业我们已经多次谈到过。去年我们收购了 OxyChem。关于 OxyChem,我们宣布了收购,并在 1 月 2 日完成了交割。这是非常好的补充。应该说他们生产两种核心大宗商品,因此它更偏向大宗化学品业务,而且在工业领域这些都是很有价值的大宗化学品,他们的工厂是无法被复制的——要复制绝非易事。我们拥有了宝贵的资产。化工组的第三家企业是一家叫 LSPI 的公司,我之所以特别提到它,是因为对我们的所有者和股东来说,它是一颗真正的明珠。它的业务是生产一种减阻剂(drag reduction agent),让石油能够在管道中顺畅流动。
P0711:07:36
You can imagine in the environment we're in right now with the, with the fundamental supply and demand imbalance on oil, the more oil that can be moved through those pipelines, and you can't quite double it, but you can get darn close. They have an amazing product and obviously in very high demand. The last thing I'll just touch on with the industrial group is we have Marmon, excellent business. The reason I'm touching on it at the end, it's really amazing because it's the catch-all. It touches our rail industry or the industry. It touches the energy industry. It touches the metal industry. It touches the chemical industry. It touches on all the core industries in the U.S. Again, a remarkable asset that we have and will continue to create strong value for our owners and shareholders.
你可以想象,在我们目前所处的环境下,面对石油基本面的供需失衡,通过那些管道能够输送的石油越多越好——虽然不能完全翻倍,但已经非常接近翻倍了。他们拥有一款惊人的产品,而且显然需求非常旺盛。关于工业品集团,我最后要提的是 Marmon,一家非常优秀的企业。我之所以把它放在最后讲,是因为它真的很神奇,它是一个包罗万象的综合体。它触及我们的铁路行业或整个铁路业,触及能源行业,触及金属行业,触及化工行业,触及了全美所有的核心行业。这同样是我们拥有的一项了不起的资产,并将继续为我们的所有者和股东创造丰厚的价值。
P0721:08:28
The second piece of the manufacturing group is our building products group. I'm not gonna go through all the businesses in there because we have one that is the bellwether, and it tells you how the rest of them are doing. That's Clayton Homes. The other businesses their results follow very much, very closely that because with Clayton Homes, we're building manufactured homes or site-built homes. There's a lot that goes into it, and our other companies provide both products to them and across that space. It could be the insulation, paint, carpet, a variety of other things. You look at Clayton's results, if you go to the manufactured side of the business, our results are down on true homes manufactured and sold, down approximately 10%. A little better than the industry average, that gives you a feel for it.
制造业务集团的第二个板块是我们的建筑产品集团。我不打算把里面的企业挨个讲一遍,因为其中有一家是风向标,看看它就能知道其余企业的表现如何。那就是 Clayton Homes。其他企业的业绩走势与它高度一致、紧密相连,因为在 Clayton Homes,我们建造的是预制房屋(manufactured homes)或现场建造房屋(site-built homes)。这需要大量的建材投入,而我们的其他公司既向他们提供产品,也向整个行业供应产品,比如保温材料、涂料、地毯以及其他各种产品。看看 Clayton 的业绩,如果看预制房屋这边的业务,我们在实际制造和销售的房屋数量上下降了约 10%。这比行业平均水平稍微好一点,能让大家对整体情况有所感知。
P0731:09:24
If you go to the site build, i.e. homes home builder, they're down around 5%. The numbers I've been seeing for the last quarter are probably more like 7% across the industry. That's obviously driven by where interest rates are and certain other challenges for the consumer. Where's the opportunity? I'll touch on the challenge. Where's the opportunity in these businesses, and how is Clayton tackling it? It's very much around pursuing the American dream, and can we help deliver that? What I have gonna have our team bring up a slide that highlights this is actually a what we call a CrossMod home. We have it in the exhibit hall. It got moved in.
如果看现场建造房屋(也就是传统的房屋建筑商业务),下降了大约 5%。而我看到的上个季度整个行业的降幅可能更接近 7%。这显然是受到当前利率水平以及消费者面临的某些其他挑战所驱动的。那么机遇在哪里?我刚才谈了挑战,这些业务中的机遇在哪里,Clayton 又是如何应对的?这很大程度上围绕着追求“美国梦”展开,我们能否帮助实现这一梦想?我让我们的团队调出一张幻灯片,上面展示的实际上是我们称之为 CrossMod 的住宅。我们在展厅里就放了一栋,是搬进去的。
P0741:10:17
Had to cut the back off a little bit, so it's not quite the full size if you're, if you're comparing it to that. The reality is, this is where the opportunity is within Clayton. We wanna deliver on an affordable home to the American consumer. This home you're looking at, we thank you. Thank you to our Clayton team. Including the lot price, assuming it's in the 40,000 range, and there's a lot of place in America where it's well below that. We recognize some others, it may be greater. We can deliver this home on-site built, 2 bedroom, family home, living space, very, very beautiful living space for $249,000 delivered, including the lot. That's absolutely incredible. That's delivering affordability to the consumer.
当时不得不把后面稍微切掉一点,所以如果你拿它做对比的话,展厅里那栋还不完全是全尺寸的。但现实情况是,这正是 Clayton 内部的机遇所在。我们希望为美国消费者提供买得起的住房。你们现在看到的这栋房子——谢谢大家,也感谢我们的 Clayton 团队——算上地块价格(假设地块在 4 万美元左右,而且美国有很多地方的地价远低于此,当然我们也认识到有些地方可能会更高),我们可以交付这样一栋现场完工的、拥有 2 间卧室的家庭住宅,带有非常、非常漂亮的居住空间,包含地块在内的交付价格仅为 24.9 万美元。这绝对令人难以置信。这就是在向消费者提供真正买得起的住房。
P0751:11:17
The CrossMod, how can we get it to that price? 70% of that home is built in our manufacturing side of our facilities. Those manufacturing homes we produce, we now use it. The last 30% is built by our site builders. They bring the street appeal and all the features that as a homeowner they may want. It's a exceptional product. We don't stop there. We still have a very strong culture around the manufactured homes, and how can we, you know, what's the extreme on that? Well, if we deliver a single, and this is 1,000 square feet, if we take it to the manufacturing home and think of a traditional manufactured home, and our team probably won't like it, but it's more the box, square box. What it does create is a home.
CrossMod 是怎么做到这个价格的?这栋房子有 70% 是在我们工厂的制造端建造的。我们利用了生产预制房屋的制造能力。最后 30% 则由我们的现场建筑团队完成。他们打造出临街外观吸引力(street appeal)以及房主可能想要的所有特色功能。这是一款极其出色的产品。但我们并未止步于此。围绕预制房屋,我们仍然保持着非常深厚的文化,我们还能怎么做,或者说在这方面能做到多极致?如果我们交付一套单宽(single)住宅,面积是 1,000 平方英尺,如果回到传统的预制房屋——我们的团队可能不太喜欢我这么叫,但它更像是一个方盒子——它真正创造出来的是一个家。
P0761:12:07
It can be a 2 bedroom with a, again, very nice living space, very well done, now has a 30-year plus life on these assets, just like this one. They can get a 30-year mortgage on the CrossMod or on a manufactured home now. That's the quality we're building it to. We can now do a single manufactured home for just under $35,000. We can deliver it. They still have to get their lot or rent one. The reality is we're creating homes that people can afford, and that's really where the opportunity is within Clayton. Very proud of what our team's doing there. Lastly, I'm gonna move to the service and retailing business. I'm not gonna dive into it in our Consumer Products business. Again, we'll have Adam here.
它可以是 2 间卧室,同样拥有非常好的居住空间,做工非常精良,而且现在这些房屋资产的使用寿命都超过 30 年,就像眼前这栋一样。现在无论是购买 CrossMod 还是预制房屋,客户都可以申请 30 年期房贷。这就是我们建造房屋所达到的质量标准。我们现在能够以略低于 3.5 万美元的价格建造并交付一套单宽预制房屋。客户仍然需要自己购买或租用一块地皮。但现实是,我们正在建造人们买得起的住房,而这正是 Clayton 的机遇所在。我为我们团队在那里所做的工作感到非常自豪。最后,我将转向服务和零售业务。我不打算深入展开我们的消费品业务,因为稍后 Adam 会上台介绍。
P0771:13:00
When I think of those businesses, Adam's been in that role, as I said, since December, very much learning the businesses, getting to know the management team, like myself and how we've always done it, we'll be very focused on capital allocation and the risk, but also very focused on helping the team achieve operational excellence across those businesses. If you think of those businesses across those 32 businesses, we have a wide spectrum of where they are in their life cycle. We have some that are still growing and growing very quickly. We have some that are growing at a much smaller pace, but still growing.
当我想到那些业务时,正如我所说,Adam 自 12 月起担任这一职务,正在深入学习了解这些业务,熟悉管理团队。就像我自己以及我们一贯的做法一样,我们将非常专注于资本配置和风险管理,同时也非常专注于帮助团队在这些业务中实现卓越运营。如果你看看这 32 家企业,它们所处的生命周期跨度很大。有些仍在增长,而且增长得非常快;有些增速慢得多,但仍在增长。
P0781:13:46
Then we have some that I would call in the more mature cycle, but still creating a valued product to the co-consumer customer and deploy and creating capital producing cash flows that often within those businesses will redeploy across our other businesses. We'll have that chance to discuss that with Adam. The last thing I just want to touch on before we move to the second session and I wrap up here, I'm going to move to our balance sheet and activity associated with that. In our first quarter of 2026, we purchased $235 million of Berkshire stock. You can see that reflected on the slide. We've talked about this often, but when do we purchase stock? It's when our intrinsic value, again, conservatively determined, exceeds the current price of our shares.
还有一些我称之为处于更成熟周期的企业,但它们仍然在为消费者和客户提供有价值的产品,并产生资本和现金流,这些企业产生的现金流通常会被我们重新配置到旗下的其他业务中。稍后我们会有机会和 Adam 一起讨论这些。在我们进入第二阶段、我结束这部分发言之前,我最后想谈谈我们的资产负债表以及与之相关的动态。在 2026 年第一季度,我们回购了 2.35 亿美元的 Berkshire 股票。大家可以在幻灯片上看到这一点。我们经常谈到这个话题:我们什么时候会回购股票?就是当我们保守估算的内在价值高于我们股票的当前价格时。
P0791:14:47
We do that literally, Warren and I will be discussing this on a daily basis and how do we feel around the overall value. It's not a daily, but we think about it daily. The reality is there's a lot of different ways to calculate intrinsic value. It can be a simple premium over book value. You can take book value because we have everything at a historical cost basis and try to adjust our various companies that a BNSF is recorded on the books at the original price we bought it at versus what's it valued at today. You can go through that exercise.
我们确实是这样做的,Warren 和我几乎每天都会讨论这个问题,交流我们对整体价值的看法——倒不是每天都讨论,但我们每天都会思考这件事。现实情况是,计算内在价值有很多不同的方法。可以是在账面价值基础上加一个简单的溢价。你也可以拿账面价值作为起点,因为我们所有的资产都是按历史成本计价的,然后尝试对我们旗下的各个公司进行调整,比如 BNSF 在账面上是按我们当年收购时的原始价格入账的,去对比它今天的价值是多少。你可以做这样的测算。
P0801:15:23
Or if I think of it more as how we would think of businesses when we buy a stock or a full company, we think of it as we have our balance sheet, we know what our cash is, we know what our U.S. Treasuries are, we know what our equity investments are, they're mark to market, and then we have our operating companies in place. That's where we have to think about what are the long-term economic prospects of those businesses five years, ten years from now. The other important part of that equation is how do we redeploy that capital that comes off of it? That's really the approach we take to the intrinsic value. Let's move to our balance sheet. The very specific numbers. There's a lot of numbers here.
或者,如果按照我们在购买一只股票或收购一家完整公司时思考业务的方式来看,我们的思路是:我们有自己的资产负债表,我们清楚自己有多少现金,清楚自己有多少美国国债,清楚自己有多少股票投资——这些是按市值计价的——然后我们还拥有现有的运营公司。这就需要我们去思考,这些企业在五年、十年后的长期经济前景如何。这个等式的另一个重要部分是,我们如何重新配置这些业务所产生的资本?这才是我们评估内在价值真正采取的方法。让我们来看看资产负债表上的具体数字。这里有很多数字。
P0811:16:15
Again, I'll touch on a few captions. If you look at our cash and U.S. Treasury bills, there's a risk that people use the $397.4 billion as the headline number, because that is our cash and U.S. Treasury sitting there at the end of March. We don't like these type of adjustments, but it is important to communicate it. There is $17.2 billion of payables associated with the Treasuries that are in that total. How does that happen? We bought the Treasuries right before the end of March, the payable, i.e. the fact we use our cash to purchase those Treasuries, that occurred right after the end of March. We've got the Treasuries up in the $397, and we're still holding the cash.
我还是挑几个主要科目来讲。如果你看我们的现金和美国短期国债,存在一个风险,就是人们会把 3,974 亿美元当作头条数字,因为那是 3 月底我们账面上的现金和美国国债总额。我们不喜欢做这类调整,但把这件事沟通清楚很重要。在那个总额中,包含了与购买国债相关的 172 亿美元应付款项。这是怎么发生的呢?我们在临近 3 月底之前买入了这些国债,而应付款项的交割——也就是我们动用现金去支付这些国债购买款——发生在刚刚过了 3 月底之后。因此,我们的国债已经计入了那 3,974 亿美元(原文简称为 397)之中,而我们手里还拿着那笔现金。
P0821:17:09
Accordingly, our cash in U.S. Treasury bills net is $380 billion. Yes, it grew by that $7 billion you can see on the slide. The other important thing to focus on is our cash and investments at the bottom. The $705.8 billion versus the $708.7 billion at the end of the year. We're down just under $3 billion. Now, what drives that or what's the underlying numbers behind that? We produced a little more than, close to $10 and a half billion of income and related cash flows in the first quarter. We also would have incurred certain capital expenditures against our businesses.
因此,我们的现金及美国短期国债净额为 3,800 亿美元。是的,正如你在幻灯片上看到的,它增长了 70 亿美元。另一个需要重点关注的是底部的现金和投资总额:为 7,058 亿美元,而去年年底为 7,087 亿美元。我们减少了略低于 30 亿美元。那么,是什么推动了这一变化,或者说背后的具体数字是什么?我们在第一季度产生了略高于、接近 105 亿美元的收益及相关现金流。同时,我们的各项业务也发生了一定的资本开支。
P0831:18:05
We incur those to either reduce risk in the businesses, to manage those businesses on a sustainable basis, or to pursue growth. That was, like I said, just under $5 billion. Again, we are involved in our management teams as they decide to deploy that capital and very comfortable with that. The other piece of the equation in the first quarter was we closed on the Oxy transaction. $9.5 billion flowed out associated with that. Very pleased with that. We did have two transactions last year that we announced. Oxychem, we announced it and closed on it in this year. Last year, we announced Bell Labs, a smaller transaction. We're fortunate to have it join our company, Steve Levy and his team. Great group there.
我们发生这些资本开支,要么是为了降低业务中的风险,要么是为了让这些业务在可持续的基础上运营,要么是为了追求增长。正如我所说,这部分支出略低于 50 亿美元。同样,当我们的管理团队决定部署这些资本时,我们都会参与其中,并且对此非常放心。第一季度这个等式的另一部分是我们完成了 Oxy(OxyChem)交易的交割,与此相关流出了 95 亿美元。我们对此非常满意。去年我们确实宣布了两项交易:OxyChem 是去年宣布并在今年完成交割的;去年我们还宣布了收购 Bell Labs,这是一项规模较小的交易。我们很幸运能有它加入我们的公司,以及 Steve Levy 和他的团队,那是一个非常棒的团队。
P0841:18:59
Warren likes to say we finally delivered on Charlie's objective around, we have a rat poison company that we value highly, but it's an exceptional business. The reality is that's not in that number. We had the Oxy transaction resulted in a little more than a $3 billion decrease in our results. With that, a very fulsome business update. I appreciate the opportunity to share where our businesses are and where they're going. Thank you. I'm going very shortly have Ajit join us on stage. We'll move to the Q&A. As we transition to that session, we'll have the GEICO video narrated by Nancy. Thank you.
Warren 喜欢说,我们终于实现了 Charlie 的目标——我们拥有了一家被我们高度重视的老鼠药公司,但它确实是一家极其出色的企业。实际上,那笔交易并没有包含在刚才的数字里。加上 Oxy 交易的影响,最终导致我们的现金和投资总额减少了略高于 30 亿美元。以上就是非常详尽的业务最新情况汇报。我很感激有机会与大家分享我们各项业务的现状以及未来的发展方向。谢谢大家。稍后我将请 Ajit 上台与我们一起进入问答环节。在过渡到下一环节期间,我们将播放由 Nancy 配音解说的 GEICO 短片。谢谢。
P0851:20:09
Nancy PierceCEO
GEICO started out 90 years ago by trying to make things simple and giving a great price and service to customers. When you think about it, today is exactly the same thing. We're just continuing to try and perfect that and make it a little better every day, a little faster, a little easier. I'm Nancy Pierce, I became CEO of GEICO in December of 2025. Prior to that, I was the Chief Operating Officer, I just had my 40th anniversary with GEICO. I started as a claims associate in 1986, right out of college. I've just had the pleasure over many, many years of working in, I think, just about every department or every sector that GEICO has. While I started in claims, I've been in pricing, I've been in product management, I've been in underwriting.
GEICO 在 90 年前创立之初,就致力于让事情变得简单,并为客户提供实惠的价格和优质的服务。仔细想想,今天我们做的完全是同一件事。我们只是在继续努力完善这一点,每天做得更好一点、更快一点、更便捷一点。我是 Nancy Pierce,于 2025 年 12 月成为 GEICO 的首席执行官。在此之前,我担任首席运营官,而且我刚刚迎来了我在 GEICO 工作的 40 周年纪念。1986 年我大学刚毕业就加入公司,成为一名理赔专员。在这么多年的时间里,我有幸在 GEICO 几乎每一个部门或每一个业务板块工作过。虽然我从理赔部门起步,但我也做过定价、产品管理以及核保工作。
P0861:20:54
I've had an opportunity to run operations in different parts of the country. What really has kept me all these years and what has inspired me and I think inspires all 30,000 people at GEICO is every day, we're delivering for customers and we're doing something for them. We're saving them money on a product that, you know, everybody has to have, but maybe you don't necessarily wanna use it. But when you do need to use it, that's really the moment of truth. For us to be able to do that and to do it in a way that saves people money and gives that outstanding customer service, that's what excites me every day. The reason that we have customers and will continue to grow is just keeping that as our North Star.
我还有机会在全国不同地区负责运营工作。真正让我这么多年一直留在这里、激励着我、而且我认为也激励着 GEICO 全体 30,000 名员工的,是我们每一天都在为客户兑现承诺,为他们做实事。我们在一款人人都必须拥有、但平时未必想去使用的产品上帮他们省钱。可一旦你真的需要使用它,那就是真正的关键时刻(moment of truth)。我们能够做到这一点,而且是以一种既帮人们省钱又提供卓越客户服务的方式做到,这正是每天让我感到兴奋的事情。我们之所以拥有众多客户并将继续保持增长,正是因为我们始终将其奉为我们的北极星。
P0871:21:41
If we do that, I think GEICO will be very successful over the next 20 years. GEICO was founded in 1936 by Leo and Lillian Goodwin, and their idea was to come direct to consumers and to cut out the middleman and to have much better cost and much better service for those customers. In 1951, Benjamin Graham took an investment in GEICO, and of course, one of his students was Warren Buffett. That's when Warren really started to think about GEICO and to deeply try and figure out what we were doing and met with the leadership of GEICO, and that was one of his first very big investments, his personal investments. Then later, he started investing Berkshire Hathaway shares. By 1996, he owned all of GEICO.
如果我们能做到这一点,我认为 GEICO 在未来 20 年里将会非常成功。GEICO 由 Leo and Lillian Goodwin 夫妇于 1936 年创立,他们的理念是直接面向消费者,省去中间商,从而为客户提供更低的成本和更好的服务。1951 年,Benjamin Graham 投资了 GEICO,当然,他的学生之一就是 Warren Buffett。正是从那时起,Warren 真正开始关注并思考 GEICO,深入研究我们在做什么,并与 GEICO 的管理层会面,那成为了他最早期的重大个人投资之一。后来,他又开始通过 Berkshire Hathaway 投资买入股份。到了 1996 年,他买下了 GEICO 的全部股权。
P0881:22:26
From that beginning, we now insure millions of cars, trucks, RVs, campers, et cetera. We're in all 50 states, we try and be there wherever the customer needs us. That's always been sort of number one. I think from the first time I met, Warren or Greg or Ajit, they always start by talking about integrity and reputation and making sure that you're doing the right thing for customers. It's something we live and breathe every day at GEICO, it's absolutely a big part of our culture.
从那一起点发展至今,我们现在为数以百万计的轿车、卡车、房车、露营车等提供保险服务。我们的业务遍及全美所有 50 个州,只要客户需要我们,我们就努力出现在那里。这一直是我们的头等大事。我想从我第一次见到 Warren、Greg 或 Ajit 起,他们总是首先谈到诚信与声誉,并确保为客户做正确的事。这是我们在 GEICO 每天都在践行和呼吸的准则,绝对是我们文化中极其重要的一部分。
P0891:22:58
Obviously, Berkshire Hathaway was founded in some ways on insurance, and being wholly owned has just been terrific for GEICO and terrific for our customers over the years because it really allows us to invest in our business and to make long-term decisions, not quarterly or annual decisions on what's best for growing our business. You know, obviously, Berkshire has many other insurance companies besides GEICO, and we do work together with them. GEICO sells many of their products, you know, today, and we continue to look and bring more of them onto the GEICO platform. There are always cycles in insurance. Sometimes there's bad weather.
显然,Berkshire Hathaway 在某种程度上是以保险业务为根基建立起来的,而成为其全资子公司这么多年来对 GEICO 和我们的客户来说都棒极了,因为这真正让我们能够对自身业务进行投资,并从最有利于业务长远发展的角度做出长期决策,而不是按季度或按年度做短期决策。大家知道,除了 GEICO 之外,Berkshire 显然还有许多其他保险公司,我们也确实与他们开展合作。如今 GEICO 销售他们旗下的许多产品,而且我们还在继续探索并将更多产品引入 GEICO 平台。保险行业总是存在周期的,有时也会遇到恶劣天气。
P0901:23:42
It's just making sure that the company's prepared for all of those things and to deliver on that promise that we make to customers when they buy that policy to be there in their hour of need. We take that very, very seriously. If you're involved in a, in an auto accident, the last thing you want is to go weeks and weeks and weeks before you get paid and before the whole thing is resolved. We really strive to do that now in minutes where possible, as opposed in days or hours. Nobody really wants to spend a lot of time with their insurance company, but when they do, we wanna make sure that they're getting the very best service as fast as they possibly can.
关键就是要确保公司为所有这些情况做好充分准备,并在客户购买保单时兑现我们对他们许下的承诺——在他们最需要的时候陪伴在侧。我们非常、非常认真地对待这一承诺。如果你遭遇了一场车祸,你最不希望看到的就是等上好几个星期才能拿到赔款、才能把整件事解决完。只要有可能,我们现在真正努力在几分钟内完成处理,而不是花上几天或几个小时。没有人真的愿意花很多时间跟自己的保险公司打交道,但当他们不得不打交道时,我们希望确保他们能以尽可能快的速度获得最优质的服务。
P0911:24:18
When I think about innovation, it's really about things that are gonna allow us to handle claims faster than anybody else in the industry. What I'm really focused on is our customer loyalty and retention, so we wanna improve those. It's a very competitive market right now. You know, everybody has come out of sort of a, an unusual period out of COVID in regards to frequency and severity. I think everybody now, all of our competitors are in the mode to try and grow. The best way for us to grow is to retain, you know, every one of our customers.
当我思考创新时,核心其实就是那些能让我们比业内任何其他公司都更快处理理赔的事物。我真正关注的是我们的客户忠诚度和留存率,我们希望提升这两项指标。目前的市场竞争非常激烈。大家知道,在出险频率和赔付严重程度方面,所有人都刚刚走出了疫情带来的那段不同寻常的时期。我认为现在所有人、我们所有的竞争对手都处于努力寻求增长的模式中。而对我们来说,实现增长的最好方式就是留住我们的每一位客户。
P0921:24:55
I think that what I'd like to communicate is just that every day, 30,000 people at GEICO go to work in support of millions and millions of customers. I want you to know that that's what the GEICO team is delivering for Berkshire day in and day out, is a reputation of doing the right thing, saving customers money, and just giving outstanding service.
我想传达的很简单,就是每一天,GEICO 的 30,000 名员工都在为支持数以百万计的客户而努力工作。我希望各位知道,这就是 GEICO 团队日复一日为 Berkshire 所交付的成果:坚持做正确的事情的声誉、为客户省钱,以及提供卓越的服务。
P0931:25:29
Greg AbelPresident and CEO
Thank you, Nancy, and to the GEICO team, thank you. We've got an exceptional leader in Nancy, and again, appreciate you taking on that senior role. Welcome, Ajit. yes. Great to be up here together. Ajit, if you don't mind, I'll start with I touched on Tokio Marine, an exceptional transaction, an exceptional relationship I know you've built over many years with the Tokio Marine management team. If you could just expand on that strategic transaction and relationship, we'll love to start with that.
谢谢你,Nancy,也感谢 GEICO 团队。Nancy 是一位极其优秀的领导者,再次感谢你承担起这一高级管理职务。欢迎 Ajit。是的,很高兴能一起坐在这个台上。Ajit,如果你不介意的话,我想先从我刚才提到的 Tokio Marine 开始——那是一笔非常出色的交易,也是一段我知道你多年来与 Tokio Marine 管理团队建立起的深厚关系。如果你能就这项战略交易和合作关系展开讲讲,我们非常想从这里开始。
P0941:26:09
Ajit JainVice Chairman of Insurance Operations
Sure. Thank you. Tokio Marine and Fire is the largest non-life insurance company in Japan. They've been doing business for more than 100 odd years and are clearly regarded as a blue chip company in the international arena altogether. They're clearly number 1 in Japan. Every insurance company would like to be associated with them. They have a very high reputation in Japan and globally as well. We, being in the insurance business for the last, God knows how many years, we've tried year after year to try and get a relationship going with Tokio Marine and Fire. It has not been easy because one of the things we bring to the business is a capital partner. Tokio Marine were cash rich, and they really never needed capital in a big way. They have been expanding in Japan.
好的,谢谢。Tokio Marine and Fire 是日本最大的非人寿保险(财产险)公司。他们已经经营了 100 多年,在国际舞台上无疑被公认为一家蓝筹公司。他们在日本稳居第 1 名。每一家保险公司都希望能与他们建立联系。他们在日本乃至全球都享有极高的声誉。我们在保险行业干了天知道多少年,年复一年地尝试与 Tokio Marine and Fire 建立合作关系。这并不容易,因为我们能为业务带来的核心价值之一是作为资本合作伙伴,而 Tokio Marine 资金非常充裕,他们其实从来不需要大规模的外部资本。他们一直在日本国内扩张。
P0951:27:21
Now, given the limited growth in Japan, they've looked overseas, and over these last eight, 10 years, they've really got most of the low-hanging fruit overseas that they would like to get. Nevertheless, they are keen, and they are hungry for business elsewhere outside Japan. Last year, we got a chance to spend some time with them and talk to them in very general terms about what the two of us could be doing and should be doing with each other. After that initial conversation, which probably took place nearly a year ago, things moved fairly quickly. To sort of get to the bottom line, in March, we finally announced a transaction with them. That transaction has three legs to it.
现在,考虑到日本国内的增长空间有限,他们把目光投向了海外;而在过去这八到 10 年里,他们在海外基本上已经把想要摘取的“低垂果实”都摘完了。尽管如此,他们依然热切且渴望在日本以外的其他地区拓展业务。去年,我们有机会与他们共度了一段时间,非常宽泛地探讨了我们双方可以一起做什么、应该一起做什么。在大概近一年前那次初步交谈之后,事情推进得相当快。长话短说,今年 3 月,我们终于宣布了与他们达成的一项交易。这项交易包含三大支柱。
P0961:28:14
I'll describe to you each one of them, and that'll give you an idea of what the relationship is right now, and we've got a long way to go, of course. Firstly, we bought some stock in the company. Just a simple transaction. We wrote a check for $1.8 billion, and we got 2.5% of the stock of Tokio Marine and Fire. That was one part of the transaction. Secondly, they have a good and profitable book of business in terms of what they write in Japan and elsewhere. We took a piece of the business, just that property casualty business that they write, and, you know, we compensated them for their efforts in getting the business, originating the business, and running the business.
我来为大家逐一介绍这三部分,这会让大家了解我们目前的合作关系处于什么阶段,当然我们未来的路还很长。首先,我们买入了该公司的一些股票。只是一笔简单的交易:我们开了一张 18 亿美元的支票,获得了 Tokio Marine and Fire 2.5% 的股份。这是交易的第一部分。其次,他们在日本及其他地区承保的业务账册质量很好且盈利可观。我们承接了其中一部分业务,也就是他们承保的财产和意外伤害险业务,同时我们就他们获取业务、发起业务和运营业务所付出的努力向他们支付了相应补偿。
P0971:29:05
We get a slice of their business for several years down the road. The third piece was a sort of strategic agreement between the two of us. It is not spelt out in a lot of detail, and normally I would be very, very concerned about having open-ended strategic transactions. Tokio Marine, they are a quality company. In fact, they remind me of a phrase that J.P. Morgan used I don't know how many years ago, "Doing first-class business in a first-class way." That is Tokio Marine in the insurance industry. We have a general statement that we'll work with each other, we'll coordinate when it comes to finding opportunities elsewhere, running businesses operationally, and that is something that will evolve over time in terms of who's gonna bring what to the party.
未来几年我们将分得他们业务的一杯羹。第三部分则是我们双方之间达成的一项战略协议。协议并没有写得很细,通常情况下,我对于开放式的战略交易会非常、非常谨慎。但 Tokio Marine 是一家高质量的公司。事实上,他们让我想起了不知多少年前 J.P. Morgan 说过的一句话:“以一流的方式做一流的业务。”Tokio Marine 在保险行业就是这样的公司。我们有一项总体声明,即双方将携手合作,在其他地方寻找机会以及开展业务运营时相互协调,至于谁具体贡献什么资源,这会随着时间的推移逐步演进。
P0981:30:09
I certainly hope this serves as a springboard for both of us to move on to the next plateau.
我当然希望这能成为我们双方迈上新台阶的跳板。
P0991:30:18
Greg AbelPresident and CEO
Thank you, Ajit. It's an exceptional transaction and a real long-term relationship. Thank you so much. You know, it's 1 thing when I think of also it reminds me of our 5 other Japanese companies that we've made investments in. Yes, we like the financial investment, but we also see long-term strategic relationships that can develop across 1 or all 5 of them. Fully support and excited by everything you just described, Ajit. Thank you. We'll move to the more formal, or not the formal, but our traditional Q&A, question and answer. We'll go again to the stations and to Becky. Today we'll start with station 1. Station 1.
谢谢你,Ajit。这是一笔卓越的交易,也是一段真正的长期合作关系。非常感谢。你知道,说到这 1 件事,这也让我想起了我们投资的另外 5 家日本公司。是的,我们看重财务投资回报,但我们也看到了可以与其中 1 家或全部 5 家公司发展长期战略合作关系的潜力。我完全支持你刚才所描述的一切,也对此感到非常振奋,Ajit。谢谢你。接下来我们将进入更正式的——或者说不是正式的,而是我们传统的问答环节(Q&A)。我们将再次由现场各提问区和 Becky 交替提问。今天我们先从 1 号提问区开始。请 1 号提问区提问。
P1001:31:08
Warren BuffettChairman (Floor Q&A)
Hi, my name is Warren. Warren from Omaha. I've recently undergone a, let's call it a significant change in role. I have, well, let's just say a not insignificant portion of my net worth tied up in Berkshire stock. Now, Greg, I've been watching this company for a while. Long time, a very long time. I've been telling people that I have no intention of selling a single share. Not one. My question is a simple one. I'm 95 years old. I've got nothing but time and Cherry Coke. I want to know, just so I have something to tell my fellow shareholders, why should they hold their Berkshire shares for the long term? Anyway, Greg, I'll let you take it from here.
嗨,我叫 Warren,来自奥马哈的 Warren。我最近经历了一次——姑且称之为重大的角色转变吧。我的净资产中,这么说吧,有相当不小的一部分都绑在 Berkshire 的股票上。Greg,我已经观察这家公司有一段时间了。很长一段时间,非常长的一段时间。我一直在告诉大家,我一股也不打算卖。一股都不卖。我的问题很简单。我已经 95 岁了,我现在最不缺的就是时间和 Cherry Coke。我只是想知道,好让我有话可以告诉我的股东同伴们:为什么他们应该长期持有手中的 Berkshire 股票?不管怎样,Greg,接下来就交给你了。
P1011:32:15
Greg AbelPresident and CEO
Well, Warren from Omaha, very astute question. If I think of what we've already discussed this morning, which is our culture and values and highlighted that's the bedrock of Berkshire, then what did it create? It created the foundation that we have today. That's this incredible set of assets that exist within Berkshire. We have our insurance business led by Ajit and his team. We've talked about it being the heart with talent and opportunities because we have capital available and it'll be available at different times. We've got significant opportunities there. If I think of our non-insurance businesses, I spent a lot of time on those, but we've got unique opportunities on the operational excellence side and we'll pursue them and there'll be incremental investment opportunities in there. We have our equity investments, as we know, and we also have a very important asset.
好吧,来自奥马哈的 Warren,这是一个非常敏锐的问题。如果回顾我们今天早上已经讨论过的内容,也就是我们的文化和价值观,并且我们强调了那是 Berkshire 的基石,那么它究竟造就了什么?它造就了我们今天所拥有的基础,也就是存在于 Berkshire 内部这一系列令人惊叹的资产组合。我们有由 Ajit 及其团队领导的保险业务。我们谈到它是核心引擎,既有优秀人才又有发展机会,因为我们手头有充裕的可用资本,而且这些资本会在不同时期派上用场,我们在那里拥有重大机遇。再看我们的非保险业务,我花了很多时间在这些业务上,我们在卓越运营方面拥有独特的提升机会,我们会全力推进,同时其中也会涌现出增量投资机会。此外,众所周知,我们还拥有股票投资组合,同时我们还拥有一项非常重要的资产。
P1021:33:31
We have our cash in U.S. Treasuries. It serves a couple purposes. One, you've heard Warren and Charlie say this before, I've said it, we do not intend to be beholden to anyone. We start with that position. Thank you. It's how we manage Berkshire and we'll continue to manage Berkshire. That asset, the cash in Treasuries, also creates a unique opportunity. It creates the opportunity to deploy it across these different groups. It can be and it will be dependent upon the opportunity, i.e. is it a strong value proposition, if it presents itself, we'll be prepared to act decisively and with significant capital. That's what it's there for. We have, we will and do have opportunities within the equity investments that we currently have and beyond that.
我们持有大量现金和美国国债。它起到几个作用。第一,你们以前听 Warren 和 Charlie 说过,我也说过,我们绝不打算受制于任何人。我们首先确立这一立场。谢谢大家。这就是我们管理 Berkshire 的方式,也将是我们继续管理 Berkshire 的方式。这项资产——即现金和美国国债——也创造了一个独特的机会,使我们能够将资金配置到上述各个不同的业务板块中。具体投向哪里,可以也必将取决于机会本身,也就是说,它是否具备强大的价值主张;一旦这样的机会出现,我们将做好准备,果断行动并投入巨额资本。这正是这笔资金存在的意义。在我们现有的股票投资组合内部以及更广泛的领域,我们过去有、现在有、未来也将继续拥有投资机会。
P1031:34:44
We have our operating businesses, as I said, and there it can be deploying capital back into those businesses, as I touched on the capital expenditure side, or it can be the incremental opportunity to acquire 100% of a business. Then there's the opportunities that Ajit's already alluded to on the insurance side. What's the other unique thing is, yes, Berkshire's a conglomerate and we recognize that, but we are a unique conglomerate in that we can move our capital very efficiently, and that's the value of the conglomerate, is we can move our capital very efficiently across each of those groups. We can move it from insurance to non-insurance into equities, or if we so choose to hold it in cash or back across those in a very efficient way, in a very tax efficient way.
正如我所说,我们拥有众多运营业务,在这方面,我们既可以将资本重新投入到这些业务中——就像我刚才在资本开支部分谈到的那样——也可以抓住增量机会,收购某家企业 100% 的股权。此外,还有 Ajit 刚才在保险业务方面已经提到的各种机会。另一个独特之处在于,是的,Berkshire 是一家多元化集团企业(conglomerate),我们承认这一点,但我们是一家独特的多元化集团,因为我们能够极其高效地调配资本——而这正是多元化集团的价值所在,即我们可以在各个业务板块之间非常高效地调动资本。我们可以将资本从保险业务调往非保险业务、调入股票投资,或者如果我们选择持有现金,也可以把资金调回现金储备,或在各板块之间来回调配,整个过程不仅非常高效,而且在税务上也极具效率。
P1041:35:39
I would also add to the fact that how are we unique as a conglomerate? We live by the fact that we hate bureaucracy. We do not embrace in our Thank you. Yes. Ajit's the biggest fan. He reminds me constantly and I love it. I treasure it. We've heard many times the ABCs, the arrogance, bureaucracy, complacency that can creep into a company will kill a company. We intend to never allow that to happen. We have this unique opportunity to both take the businesses we have today, take that foundation and build upon it. We also have that capital to be deployed back into them. How will personally myself and the team define success? We'll define success is can we ensure that Berkshire endures in its current form?
我还要补充一点,作为一家多元化集团,我们的独特之处还体现在哪里?我们的信条是深恶痛绝官僚主义。在我们的业务中,我们绝不迎合官僚主义——谢谢大家。是的,Ajit 是这一信条的头号拥护者,他时刻提醒我这一点,而我非常喜欢这样,也非常珍视这一点。我们听过很多次所谓的“ABC”综合征——傲慢(arrogance)、官僚主义(bureaucracy)和自满(complacency),一旦它们潜入一家公司,就会扼杀这家公司。我们绝不允许这种事情发生。我们拥有这一独特的机会,既能立足于现有的业务基础并在此之上继续深耕,同时又拥有充裕的资本可以再投资于这些业务。那么我个人以及整个团队将如何定义成功?我们对成功的定义是:我们能否确保 Berkshire 以目前的形式长盛不衰?
P1051:36:44
That means we do business as we do today, consistent with the cultures, values, business principles we have with both the long-term objective and with great purpose and intent, create long-term value for our shareholders. That will define success.
这意味着我们要像今天这样开展业务,坚守我们一贯的文化、价值观和商业原则,怀揣长远目标,带着坚定的使命感与明确的意图,为我们的股东创造长期价值。这就是我们对成功的定义。
P1061:37:08
Ajit JainVice Chairman of Insurance Operations
Greg, I'll let you take it from here. I've got a few things on my plate. Actually, excuse me, I need to take this. Someone may want to sell me their business. I hope it's an elephant.
Greg,接下来就交给你了。我手头还有几件事要处理。实际上,抱歉,我得接个电话。可能有人想把他们的公司卖给我。我希望那是一头“大象”(大型收购标的)。
P1071:37:31
Greg AbelPresident and CEO
As you've all picked up, that was a deepfake. Here's the interesting thing. That was done with zero input from Warren Voice photo. We were able to obtain that with information that's out there and replicate those actions and that voice. The reality is that's what we're dealing with when we think of Berkshire and how we have to protect it every day. It can go to deepfakes and they're using a way to try to penetrate our business. It can be the cyber attacks. It's a great reminder for our team because that is a significant risk across Berkshire that we're managing every day, cyber risk, and it's one that we take extremely serious. I touched on the technology side. We're constantly using technology to protect our businesses, and then we're also trying to use technology to identify it.
正如大家已经看出来的,刚才那段视频是深度伪造(deepfake)的。有意思的地方在于,制作这段视频完全没有让 Warren 提供任何声音或照片素材。我们仅仅利用网上公开的信息,就还原并复制出了那些动作和声音。现实情况是,当我们思考 Berkshire 的运营以及我们每天必须如何保护公司时,这就是我们正在面对的挑战。它既可能是试图利用深度伪造技术渗透我们业务的欺诈手段,也可能是各类网络攻击。这对我们的团队来说是一个很好的警示,因为网络风险是整个 Berkshire 每天都在管理的重大风险,也是我们极其重视的一项风险。我刚才谈到了技术层面,我们一直在不断利用技术来保护我们的业务,同时也在努力运用技术来识别这类风险。
P1081:38:29
A lot of us have heard about Mithos and what's going on there. We're very focused on those risks. Ajit, before we move truly to our first question, and you've touched on this many times. When we think of cyber risk and we insure it, what's our current approach across our insurance businesses and your thoughts there?
我们很多人都听说过 Mithos 以及那里正在发生的事情。我们高度关注这些风险。Ajit,在我们真正进入第一个提问之前——你以前也多次谈到过这个话题——当我们考量网络风险并为其承保时,目前我们旗下各保险业务采取的是什么方针?你对此有什么看法?
P1091:38:58
Ajit JainVice Chairman of Insurance Operations
Cyber is something we worry about in the insurance operation at two levels. Firstly, there is a huge demand by people in business all over the world who are interested in buying protection against some kind of a cyber incident. We have been slow in terms of consciously, we have been slow in terms of entering that class of business as an underwriter. The reason for that is, firstly, on cyber, I find it very difficult to have some meaningful method to assess and model the aggregation. People will tell you, "We've got it under control," and they'll show you all kinds of models, but nothing that I can really hang my hat on in terms of we really have a good feeling for what the aggregate exposure is.
在保险业务中,我们对网络风险的担忧体现在两个层面上。首先,全球各地的企业界对于购买针对某种网络安全事件的保险保障有着巨大的需求。作为承保人,我们在进入这一险种时一直是有意放慢脚步的。原因在于,首先,在网络风险方面,我发现很难找到某种有意义的方法来评估和建模风险的累积效应(aggregation)。人们会告诉你:“一切尽在掌握之中”,还会给你看各种各样的模型,但没有一个模型能让我真正放心地认为,我们已经对总体风险敞口有了很好的把握。
P1101:39:56
Any risk we take on, the first question we ask ourselves, how bad can bad be? I'm not sure we can answer that question as well as we should. The second reason is cyber has been a very popular, fashionable product in these last several years. We have not played in it. As it turns out, there haven't been very many cyber losses. People who've taken on cyber risk have actually made profits, and as a result of which, the premiums that cyber insurance commands has been coming down over time. We'd hate entering a line of business where prices are coming down. We're sort of sitting on the sidelines, and I'm not sure when, but I'm pretty certain that the day will come when we will have a fairly significant role to play in cyber.
无论承担任何风险,我们问自己的第一个问题都是:最坏的情况能有多糟?我不确定我们能否像应有的那样圆满回答这个问题。第二个原因是,过去几年里,网络保险一直是非常热门、时髦的产品。我们没有参与其中。结果证明,实际上并没有发生太多网络保险理赔损失。那些承担了网络风险的承保人实际上赚到了钱,受此影响,网络保险所能收取的保费水平随着时间推移一直在下降。我们非常讨厌在价格下行的周期进入某个业务领域。所以我们目前基本上处于场外观望状态;我不确定具体会是什么时候,但我相当肯定,总有一天我们会在网络保险领域扮演相当重要的角色。
P1111:40:53
Secondly, you know, we being a large company are exposed to cyber perils ourselves. We try and do the best we can. We, I think, are as good as anyone else. Cyber insurance is very highly regulated by the regulators, and we've been consistently above what the regulations call for. I think we're doing the best we can, but I cannot be categorical about it.
其次,你知道,作为一家大型企业,我们自身也暴露在网络风险之下。我们尽自己最大的努力做好防范。我认为我们做得不比任何人差。网络保险受到监管机构非常严格的监管,而我们的防范标准一直高于监管要求。我认为我们已经在竭尽全力做到最好,但我不敢对此打包票。
P1121:41:25
Greg AbelPresident and CEO
Thank you, Ajit. Let's go to the now truly the Q&A session. Becky, we'll start with you, and thank you for being so patient. Thank you.
谢谢你,Ajit。现在让我们真正进入问答环节。Becky,我们先从你开始,非常感谢你的耐心等待。谢谢。
问答环节
P1131:41:43
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Thanks, Greg. This first question, Ajit, let's follow up with the AI. This is slightly different though. This comes from Billy DeRoss in Ardsley, New York, who writes, "In an era of increasingly complex risk models and AI tools, where does human judgment still provide Berkshire a competitive advantage?
谢谢,Greg。第一个问题,Ajit,我们继续顺着人工智能(AI)的话题往下聊,不过角度略有不同。这个问题来自纽约州阿兹利(Ardsley)的 Billy DeRoss,他写道:“在风险模型日益复杂、AI 工具层出不穷的时代,人类的判断力在哪些方面仍然能为 Berkshire 提供竞争优势?”
P1141:42:07
Ajit JainVice Chairman of Insurance Operations
Okay. Becky, just repeat the last part of the question.
好的。Becky,请再重复一下问题的最后一部分。
P1151:42:11
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Yeah. Where is human judgment still a competitive advantage for Berkshire when you consider AI tools that are out there?
好的。考虑到市面上现有的各种 AI 工具,人类的判断力在哪些方面仍然是 Berkshire 的竞争优势?
P1161:42:19
Ajit JainVice Chairman of Insurance Operations
Yeah. AI also is very fashionable right now. People are jumping into it from the insurance space and from the non-insurance space. Clearly, if AI becomes reality as it's being projected, then there's no question about it'll be a huge game changer. Right now, what we are seeing is AI being used as a productivity tool, as a mechanism for reducing labor costs and doing routine repetitive things. I do not think AI will reach a point where you can make a trade-off on things like pricing, settling a claim. That is still years away and, you know, I tend to be skeptical. I'll be surprised if AI can solve that problem for you. If you're counting on AI telling you which stock to buy and which one to sell, I don't think that's going to happen.
是的。AI 现在也非常时髦。无论是保险行业还是非保险行业,人们都在纷纷涌入。显然,如果 AI 真的像目前预测的那样成为现实,那么毫无疑问它将彻底改变游戏规则。但就目前而言,我们所看到的是 AI 被用作一种生产力工具,作为一种降低劳动力成本以及处理日常重复性工作的机制。我认为 AI 还不会达到可以在定价、理赔结算这类事情上直接替你做权衡决断的程度。那还需要很多年,而且你知道,我对此倾向于持怀疑态度。如果 AI 真能替你解决那个问题,我会感到很惊讶。如果你指望 AI 告诉你该买哪只股票、该卖哪只股票,我认为那是不会发生的。
P1171:43:20
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Yeah.
是的。
P1181:43:23
Greg AbelPresident and CEO
Ajit, I found it interesting. Ajit and I were together, a few weeks ago, and Ajit got his team on the phone 'cause we were discussing this exact question, Becky. Ajit, your team immediately went to, yes, the cyber risk, which we've already touched on. They then went quickly to the fact that really across the insurance businesses, and it's that building concept, that we're very focused on how do we become more efficient in creating code and managing it. They immediately went to that aspect of it. Then as you touched on becoming more productive, more efficient. They went as far to say. I thought the example was really good.
Ajit,我觉得有件事很有意思。几周前 Ajit 和我在一起,Ajit 当时给他的团队打了电话,因为我们正好在讨论一模一样的问题,Becky。Ajit,你的团队立刻就提到了——没错,就是我们刚才已经谈到的网络风险。紧接着他们很快谈到,实际上在整个保险业务板块中,本着循序渐进的理念,我们非常关注如何更高效地编写代码和管理代码。他们立刻就想到了这一层面。然后就像你刚才提到的,如何提高生产力、提高效率。他们甚至进一步举了个例子,我觉得那个例子非常好。
P1191:44:07
I mean, if we were looking at a risk and we had our traditional underwriters doing it, we might have looked at the 5 largest risks. Your team highlighted that now we can pretty much in a fairly quick way, yes, we focus on those, but we'll get a very quick view on another using technology. We'll probably look at those other 15 risks and have a strong view on it. Is that fair?
我的意思是,如果以前我们评估某项风险,由传统的核保人来做,我们可能只会重点审视其中 5 个最大的风险点。而你的团队强调,现在借助技术手段,我们可以在相当快的时间内——没错,我们依然会关注那 5 个最大风险——同时还能非常迅速地对其他风险形成判断,我们很可能会把另外那 15 个风险点也审视一遍,并对其形成明确的看法。这么说准确吗?
P1201:44:31
Ajit JainVice Chairman of Insurance Operations
Yep, that's it. Exactly.
对,就是这样。完全准确。
P1211:44:33
Greg AbelPresident and CEO
Yeah. Using it within the businesses, but well aware it's evolving, I think is a fair way.
是的。在业务内部积极运用它,但同时也清楚地认识到它仍在不断演进,我认为这样形容是恰当的。
P1221:44:38
Ajit JainVice Chairman of Insurance Operations
Mm-hmm.
嗯。
P1231:44:38
Yeah. Thank you. Thanks, Ajit.
好的,谢谢你。谢谢,Ajit。
P1241:44:42
Thank you.
谢谢。
P1251:44:43
Greg AbelPresident and CEO
Now, formally, Station 1, unless Warren, you're up there again.
现在正式请 1 号提问区提问——除非你又是 Warren 站在那儿。
P1261:44:49
LaviaShareholder, Shareholder (California)
Okay. Hi, everyone. My name is Lavia, and I'm from Irvine, California, born in Kunming, China. I really want to say it's my honor to see both Mr. Buffett and Mr. Abel today. I really want to say, Mr. Buffett, your speech has helped me get through many, many dark moments in my life and stand back up, not only in investment. I really appreciate you. Okay, my question is, as a young investor navigating both uncertainty and rapid technology change, I often struggle to balance patience with action. How would you personally distinguish between the two, please?
好的。大家好。我叫 Lavia,来自加利福尼亚州尔湾(Irvine),出生于中国昆明。我非常想说,今天能见到 Buffett 先生和 Abel 先生是我莫大的荣幸。我真的很想对 Buffett 先生说,您的演讲曾帮助我度过了人生中许许多多至暗时刻,让我重新站起来,这不仅体现在投资上。我由衷地感激您。好的,我的问题是:作为一名在不确定性和快速技术变革中摸索的年轻投资者,我经常在平衡“耐心等待”与“果断行动”之间感到挣扎。请问您个人会如何区分这两者?
P1271:45:41
Greg AbelPresident and CEO
Sure. I think one of our greatest strengths at Berkshire is patience and being disciplined when it comes to allocating our capital. There will be opportunities that come over time and for yourself. It doesn't mean there's not opportunities now, but it doesn't mean you need to deploy all your capital or spend all your money right now. That's really our approach. We take every day, we recognize we've got a significant asset in our cash, and U.S. Treasury is using it as ourselves as an example. That's an asset. It's a great opportunity. You'll feel the moment or feel there's a strong value proposition with an opportunity. When do we see those?
当然。我认为我们在 Berkshire 最大的优势之一,就是在资本配置上保持耐心和严守纪律。无论是对我们还是对你个人而言,机会都会随着时间的推移而出现。这并不意味着现在没有机会,但也不意味着你现在就需要把所有资本都投出去,或者把所有的钱都花光。这正是我们的行事方式。在日常运营中,我们清楚地认识到,我们持有的现金和美国国债本身就是一项重要的资产——就拿我们自己来举例,那是一项资产,也是一个巨大的机会。当你遇到真正具备强大价值主张的机会时,你是能感受到那个时刻的。那么我们什么时候会看到那样的机会呢?
P1281:46:36
We've outlined our investment philosophies, which is, 1, we very much have to understand what we're investing in. We want to have a strong. It can be you touched on technology and the things you're seeing there and the evolution and how fast it's all changing. I always start with, and I know we always have at Berkshire, do we understand this business? Do we understand the opportunity? More importantly, do we understand the risks? We want to have a very understandable view of what the economic prospects look like for the next 5, 10 years. Not, yes, the next year matters, we're not in that investment for a year. It has to be a long-term view of where that opportunity will go. We take it 1 step further.
我们已经阐明了我们的投资理念:第 1,我们必须非常透彻地理解我们所投资的对象。我们希望拥有坚实的认知——比如你刚才谈到了科技行业、你在那里看到的事物以及它的演进和变化速度有多快。我总是从这一点出发,而且我知道我们在 Berkshire 一向如此:我们理解这门生意吗?我们理解这个机会吗?更重要的是,我们理解其中的风险吗?我们希望对这项业务未来 5 到 10 年的经济前景有一个非常清晰的判断。诚然,明年的表现也很重要,但我们做这项投资不是为了持有一年。我们必须对这个机会未来的长期走向有一个长远的判断。在此基础上,我们还会更进 1 步。
P1291:47:26
We're going to be in these investments forever. We think that way. We need to, we like to have a strong view on the management team, that they're capable and operate with high integrity. If we can get to that position, but the most important being then at the end, the value has to work for us to deploy our capital. We're not anxious to just deploy capital into subpar opportunities. We wanna know it meets our principles. We'll, as I said earlier, we'll act decisively, both quickly and with significant capital. Ajit, anything you'd like to?
我们会抱着永久持有的心态去进行这些投资。我们就是这样思考的。因此,我们需要、也希望对该公司的管理团队有强烈的信心,确信他们能力出众且行事高度正直。如果我们能确认这一点,那么最后也是最重要的一点就是,估值必须合适,值得我们投入资本。我们绝不会急于把资本投向平庸的机会。我们希望确保投资标的符合我们的原则。正如我刚才所说,一旦时机成熟,我们会果断出击,不仅行动迅速,而且会投入巨额资本。Ajit,你有什么想补充的吗?
P1301:48:09
Ajit JainVice Chairman of Insurance Operations
No.
没有。
P1311:48:11
Greg AbelPresident and CEO
Thank you. Becky?
谢谢。Becky?
P1321:48:23
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
This question is for Greg. It comes from Mark Lunder in Miami, who says he's been a Berkshire shareholder for 30 years. He said, "Greg, given your background as a business operator, which differs from Warren's roots as a public market investor, could you share how you balance your time between overseeing the wholly owned subsidiaries and the $288 billion now equity portfolio? Also, does your operator lens change how you evaluate new investment opportunities compared to Warren's historical approach?
这个问题是问 Greg 的,来自迈阿密的 Mark Lunder,他说自己已经是 30 年的 Berkshire 股东了。他问道:“Greg,鉴于你作为企业运营者的背景与 Warren 早年作为公开市场投资者的出身有所不同,能否分享一下你如何平衡自己的时间,既要管理全资子公司,又要负责目前规模达 2880 亿美元的股票投资组合?另外,与 Warren 过去的方法相比,你的运营者视角是否会改变你评估新投资机会的方式?”
P1331:49:01
Greg AbelPresident and CEO
Thank you, Becky. Obviously, yes, the many years of operating Berkshire Hathaway Energy and then in the role of the Vice Chairman of non-insurance operations. Fortunately, that was, Ajit and I were in those co-roles for the past 8 years, 9 years now. That created a very significant opportunity for myself personally to understand those businesses. As I've already touched on, we have exceptional businesses, exceptional leadership there's still opportunities there. I'll spend a certain amount of time associated with those businesses and make sure we're allocating our capital properly, and we're still thinking about risk across those businesses and encouraging operational excellence.
谢谢你,Becky。显然,是的,我曾多年负责运营 Berkshire Hathaway Energy,之后又担任非保险业务副董事长。幸运的是,在过去的 8 年、到现在已经 9 年的时间里,Ajit 和我共同担任这两个副董事长职务。这为我个人创造了一个非常宝贵的机会去深入了解那些业务。正如我刚才已经谈到的,我们拥有卓越的业务和卓越的领导层,同时其中依然蕴含着发展机会。我会花一定的时间在这些业务上,确保我们妥善配置资本,持续审视各业务板块的风险,并积极推动卓越运营。
P1341:50:00
Listen, having been inside a business, it's easy to look at your internal metrics and convince yourself you're doing okay. You have to look outside and say, "Well, what is the customer seeing, feeling? What are our competitors doing?" I think that's what we can bring on the operational side. I've touched on bringing Adam on or him taking on the incremental role across 32 businesses, he'll bring that great operating knowledge, and we have Ajit on the insurance side. When it comes to the equity portfolio and again allocating time, still we have significant opportunities there, as we look at deploying our capital that's on the balance sheet. I shared where our cash and U.S. Treasuries were.
要知道,当你身处一家企业内部时,很容易只盯着内部指标看,然后说服自己一切还不错。但你必须向外看,问问自己:“客户看到和感受到的是什么?我们的竞争对手在做什么?”我认为这就是我们在运营层面能够带来的视角。我刚才提到了让 Adam 加入并承担起横跨 32 家业务子公司的增量管理职责,他将带来丰富的运营经验,而在保险业务方面我们有 Ajit。至于股票投资组合以及时间分配问题,当我们审视如何配置资产负债表上的资本时,股票投资领域依然存在巨大的机会。我刚才已经分享了我们的现金和美国国债规模。
P1351:50:55
I would highlight if you think of our equity portfolio as it exists today, I articulated this in the letter. We have a concentrated portfolio, and we highlighted that by calling it across the core. The best name is really a concentrated portfolio of investments. We had our core four concentrated investments I highlighted in the letter. We have our Japanese investments. It's interesting, if you then go into the next number of companies where we have positions that are very significant, and I would add that associated with those, we may still be acquiring shares or rationalizing what's the right position across that portfolio.
我想强调的是,如果你审视我们目前的股票投资组合——我在致股东的信中也阐述了这一点——我们持有的是一个高度集中的投资组合,在信中我们称之为核心持仓。最贴切的说法其实就是集中投资组合。其中包括我在信中重点提到的四大核心集中持仓,还有我们的日本投资项目。很有意思的是,如果你再往下看另外几家我们持有相当可观仓位的公司,我还要补充一点,对于那些持仓,我们可能仍会继续增持股份,或者合理调整它们在整个投资组合中的恰当比重。
P1361:51:52
The first group when I highlighted it was just under $200 billion and remains at that. Closer to $185 billion right now. Add in associated with be it the other investments, you have a BofA, a Chevron, a Google, companies like that. There's another $70 billion of investments. What that highlights is a very significant portion of our total investments are highly concentrated and sit across a limited portfolio. The active management of that is really limited is really what I'm highlighting. We know those businesses well. We know the management teams. Those are the things that Warren and I would still be absolutely collaborating on and discussing.
我重点提到的第一组核心持仓当时略低于 2000 亿美元,目前也保持在这一水平,现在更接近 1850 亿美元。再加上其他投资持仓,比如 BofA、Chevron、Google 这类公司,又有大约 700 亿美元的投资规模。这凸显出一个事实:我们总投资中很大一部分都是高度集中的,分布在数量有限的几只股票上。我真正想强调的是,对这些持仓进行日常主动管理的工作量其实非常有限。我们对这些企业的业务了如指掌,也熟悉它们的管理团队。而这些正是 Warren 和我绝对会继续保持协作和讨论的领域。
P1371:52:47
We don't have to discuss them every day, if there's something going on across those businesses, we'd be discussing it that week or that month. Maybe it's where they're going or what we've learned. The Japanese companies just announced their results in the last 48 hours, that was an active conversation that Warren and I had just around their results and the businesses and what we're seeing there yesterday morning. That, those are core, it doesn't mean we just set them aside or they're concentrated investments. We're constantly aware of them and evaluating them. Ted manages another $20 billion or just under $20 billion of our capital and his responsibilities go far beyond that.
我们不需要每天都讨论它们,但如果这些公司发生了什么重要动态,我们就会在当周或当月进行讨论,比如它们的发展方向或者我们了解到的新情况。那几家日本公司在过去 48 小时内刚刚公布了业绩,昨天早上 Warren 和我就围绕它们的业绩表现、业务状况以及我们从中看到的情况进行了一次深入的交流。这些都是核心持仓,但这并不意味着我们就把它们束之高阁,哪怕它们是集中持仓,我们也在时刻关注并评估它们。此外,Ted 管理着我们另外 200 亿美元或略低于 200 亿美元的资本,而且他的职责远不止于此。
P1381:53:31
He obviously helps us across a variety of our other opportunities or helping us assess risk or capital deployment in our, in our businesses. We're fortunate to have that. It's a, it's a portfolio that's very manageable when you think of the management around it and what's required of it. As, as we've touched on already, is the opportunity to deploy that cash in U.S. Treasuries at the right time is a very significant opportunity, including equities, including what we may see within the operating businesses and including the insurance side.
他显然还在其他各种机会上为我们提供帮助,或者协助我们评估旗下业务中的风险与资本配置。能有他相助我们深感幸运。所以从管理工作量和所需精力来看,这是一个完全忙得过来的投资组合。而且正如我们已经提到的,在恰当的时机将我们持有的现金和美国国债配置出去,是一个极其重大的机会,这包括股票投资、我们在运营业务中可能看到的机会,也包括保险业务方面的机会。
P1391:54:15
When it comes to allocating the time, yes, there's a certain amount of time spent on operations and we'll prioritize that 'cause we see a huge opportunity to continue to improve and close those gaps and operational excellence. We see opportunities within our existing portfolio, that is either adding to them or right-sizing it, and then constantly evaluating what other opportunities are out there, either in whole totality, acquiring a company that's private or public. Equally looking at what are the incremental opportunities if we're gonna own a piece of a company and those are evaluated in the same fashion. i.e. we look at, as I said, the economics and really tied to the last answer. Ajit, any thoughts there?
谈到时间分配,是的,我会花一定的时间在业务运营上,而且我们会优先保障这方面的精力,因为我们看到了持续改进、缩小差距并实现卓越运营的巨大空间。同时,我们在现有的股票投资组合中也看到了机会,无论是继续增持还是调整持仓规模;此外,我们也在持续评估市场上出现的其他机会,包括整体全资收购某家非上市或上市公司,同时也同样关注收购某家公司部分股权的增量机会,而我们评估这些机会的方式是一脉相承的——也就是说,正如我所言,我们看重的是经济前景,这与我回答上一个问题时阐述的原则紧密相连。Ajit,你对此有什么看法吗?
P1401:55:14
Ajit JainVice Chairman of Insurance Operations
Yeah. I really think capital allocation and operating businesses are two sides of the same coin. A comment that Warren had made several years ago, I think goes a long way when he made the comment saying that a good capital allocator will make a good operating manager and vice versa.
是的。我真心认为资本配置和企业运营是一枚硬币的两面。Warren 多年前说过的一句话我觉得非常深刻,他说过,一个优秀的资本配置者会成为一个优秀的运营管理者,反之亦然。
P1411:55:40
Greg AbelPresident and CEO
Well said, Ajit.
说得好,Ajit。
P1421:55:43
Ajit JainVice Chairman of Insurance Operations
I didn't say it, did Warren? Worse.
这话可不是我说的,是 Warren 说的吧?更妙了。
P1431:55:46
Greg AbelPresident and CEO
Well said, Warren. No. obviously we recognize it. The last thing I'd just say around that, I mean, when you think of our operating companies, and I touched on this, we have a very deep bench. We have exceptional operators that understand their business. They understand their industry, their customers. Yes, do we still have opportunities to get better? Yeah, it's continuous improvement, we'll close those gaps. We have exceptional teams there. Be it myself, Adam, Ajit, we spend our time making sure we're comfortable how the capital is allocated. Do we understand the risks? Are we aware of those gaps? Thank you, Becky. Let's move to station 2.
说得好,Warren。不,显然我们都高度认同这一点。关于这个问题我最后再补充一点,当你审视我们的运营子公司时——我之前也提到过——我们拥有非常深厚的人才梯队。我们拥有一批真正懂自身业务、懂所在行业、懂客户的杰出运营者。是的,我们是否还有进一步提升的空间?当然有,那就是持续改进,我们会去缩小那些差距。但我们在各个业务板块都已经拥有了极其优秀的团队。无论是就我个人、Adam 还是 Ajit 而言,我们都会把时间花在确保自己对资本配置的方式感到放心。我们是否真正理解其中的风险?我们是否清楚那些差距所在?谢谢你,Becky。让我们切换到 2 号提问区。
P1441:56:34
Jackie HanShareholder, Shareholder (Toronto)
Good morning, Mr. Abel and Mr. Chen. My name is Jackie Han from China, currently work in Toronto, Canada. This is my 9th Berkshire meetings. I guess I'm officially a repeat customer. Like the most shareholders, I plan to stick around for the long term. Over the years, Mr. Buffett has often said that capital allocation is Berkshire's most important responsibility. Today, we are in a very different environment. Interest rates are higher, cash actually earns something again, and competition for quality assets has increased globally. The station lady actually read my mind a little bit. Actually, my question is, how should a long-term investor think about their capital allocation approach today when patience has a real opportunity cost?
Abel 先生、Jain 先生(原文误作 Mr. Chen),早上好。我叫 Jackie Han,来自中国,目前在加拿大多伦多工作。这是我第 9 次参加 Berkshire 股东大会,我想我已经正式算是一位回头客了。和大多数股东一样,我计划长期持有并一直陪伴下去。多年来,Buffett 先生常说资本配置是 Berkshire 最重要的职责。如今,我们处在一个截然不同的环境中:利率更高了,持有现金又能产生实际收益了,而全球范围内对优质资产的争夺也变得更加激烈。刚才 1 号提问区的那位女士其实已经猜中了我的部分心思。实际上我的问题是:在如今“耐心等待”伴随着真实机会成本的环境下,长期投资者应该如何思考自己的资本配置方法?
P1451:57:22
Also for Mr. Abel, as you step further into this role, how do you personally balance patience versus action, especially when standards are shaped by decades of Mr. Buffett's track record? Thank you.
另外请问 Abel 先生,随着您进一步全面接手这一职务,特别是在评判标准已经被 Buffett 先生数十年的辉煌业绩所塑造的背景下,您个人如何平衡“耐心等待”与“果断行动”?谢谢。
P1461:57:37
Greg AbelPresident and CEO
Thank you. Thank you for attending your ninth shareholder meeting. Again, when it comes to our capital allocation approach in the, in the long term approach we've taken, it's very much aligned with our owners and our shareholders that are here. They've taken a very long-term approach around their investment. We're fortunate to have this unique ownership base within our shareholdings. Again, over the long term, there will be significant opportunities for Berkshire. This is where it's back to the patience and the discipline around capital allocation. Do we have any idea what will occur tomorrow, or will that event be three years from now, two years from now? There will be dislocations in markets that again, will allow us to act.
谢谢你。感谢你第 9 次参加股东大会。同样地,谈到我们的资本配置方法以及我们一贯秉持的长期主义方针,这与在座各位企业所有者及股东的理念是高度一致的。大家对自己的投资都采取了非常长远的眼光,我们很幸运能在股东群体中拥有这样独特的投资者基础。同样,从长远来看,Berkshire 必将迎来重大的投资机会。这就又回到了资本配置上的耐心与纪律。我们知道明天会发生什么吗?或者那种重大机会是在三年后、还是两年后出现?市场总会出现错配与动荡,而那将再次为我们提供出手的良机。
P1471:58:42
That's where the both disciplined approach, knowing how we're going to, our investment philosophy around those activities. I would add, it's not that we don't see exceptional companies out there today that we'd love to own, I'll be careful because I wouldn't want to say Long term, we'd be happy to own those companies because there's excellent companies that have excellent management teams that we evaluate. I would say when you think of the world, it doesn't mean there's multiple handfuls of those type of companies, but they're there. The price relative to the opportunity, the economic prospects of that company and the related risks, we're not interested in acquiring those companies at that price. That can be a piece of them or all of them.
这就需要我们坚守纪律,明确我们在开展这些投资活动时所遵循的投资理念。我想补充的是,这并不是说我们今天在市场上看不到心仪的卓越公司——我这么说要谨慎一点,因为我不想让人误解——从长期来看,我们非常乐意拥有那些公司,因为市场上确实有一些拥有卓越管理团队的优秀企业,我们也在对它们进行评估。我想说的是,放眼全球,这类公司虽然未必多到抓一大把,但它们确实存在。只不过,权衡目前的价格与机会本身、公司的经济前景以及相关风险之后,我们对以当前价格收购这些公司不感兴趣——无论是收购部分股权还是整体收购。
P1481:59:40
That doesn't mean that opportunity won't be there in the future. It's what we spend our time preparing for, i.e. 1, being disciplined, but 2, being aware of some core opportunities we would treasure or value at the right price. That really ties back to the discipline. You asked me personally, my plan for patience for over maybe, quote, "action." Again, it aligns to, I took this role and so fortunate being able to work with Ajit Jain and others, but we do it because we love and believe in Berkshire Hathaway. Warren Buffett brought this great commitment to Berkshire Hathaway, a great understanding of Berkshire Hathaway, and passion. With that, he wanted to create something that was very long term, including the opportunities it would create.
但这并不意味着未来不会出现那样的机会。这正是我们平时花时间做准备的事情,即:1,保持纪律;2,密切关注一些只要价格合适我们就会非常珍视和看重的核心机会。这归根结底还是回到了纪律性上。你问到我个人在“耐心等待”与所谓的“果断行动”之间的规划。同样,这与我接任这一职务的初衷是一致的——我非常幸运能够与 Ajit Jain 及其他人共事,我们做这一切是因为我们热爱并坚信 Berkshire Hathaway。Warren Buffett 为 Berkshire Hathaway 倾注了无比坚定的承诺、深刻的理解和满腔的热忱。凭着这份热忱,他希望打造出一家真正基业长青的企业,包括它所能创造的各种长远机会。
P1492:00:40
Personally, and I know all of us, we bring that same passion, and we fully intend to do it consistent with how we've done it in the past. Thank you. Good. Yeah. Yeah. Ajit, please. Thank you.
就我个人而言,而且我知道我们团队的每一个人也是如此,我们都怀揣着同样的热忱,并且完全打算以与过去一脉相承的方式把这件事继续做下去。谢谢你。好的。Ajit,请讲。谢谢。
P1502:01:03
ShareholderShareholder
Yeah.
好的。
P1512:01:03
Ajit JainVice Chairman of Insurance Operations
You know, insurance, much like investing, is a game that requires patience. It is very difficult to get people to sit back and do nothing. When I recruit people, my modus operandi, I tell them right up front, I tell them, "Your job is to say no." "You will get bombarded with deals day in and day out, but your base case is just say no." I said, "Every now and then you will come across a deal that will hit you with a two-by-four, and it'll be screaming money. That's when you come to me, and we'll make a decision whether to do it or not." You know, all kidding aside, it is very difficult to sit there and do nothing while everyone else is being wined and dined by brokers and taken to London.
你知道,保险业务和投资非常相似,都是一场需要耐心的游戏。要让人们坐下来什么都不做,是非常困难的。当我招募人才时,我的行事方式是,一开始就把话挑明,我告诉他们:“你的工作就是说‘不’。你每天都会被各种交易项目狂轰滥炸,但你的默认基准反应就是直接说‘不’。”我说:“每隔一段时间,你会遇到一笔交易,它就像拿一根二乘四英寸的木方迎面敲醒你一样显而易见,简直就是在向你招手送钱。到那个时候,你再来找我,我们一起决定做还是不做。”不开玩笑地说,当其他人都在被经纪人好酒好菜款待、受邀飞往伦敦的时候,要坐在那里按兵不动,确实是非常困难的。
P1522:02:09
I think the real test of being successful, certainly in insurance and therefore in investing as well, is the ability to say no.
我认为,衡量能否取得成功的真正试金石——在保险行业无疑如此,因此在投资领域也是如此——就是说“不”的能力。
P1532:02:20
Greg AbelPresident and CEO
Yes. Well said, Ajit. I think it applies to insurance, and I think your earlier comment. I mean, it's so applicable across all our businesses. That's what it did remind me of one story, and I'll just share it quickly. We'd acquired a company, and we were still in, having a challenging matter with how we were going to resolve some matters. I remember the deposition, and I don't want to say it's one of my most proudest moments, but it was close to it. They said, "Well, how would you describe Greg as a CEO and a manager?" They said, "Well, all he says is no." I think that's part of management. You have to be ready, and including investment, you have to be disciplined and ready to say no.
是的,说得太好了,Ajit。我认为这不仅适用于保险业务,就像你之前说的,这完全适用于我们所有的业务。这倒让我起了一个故事,我简单分享一下。我们曾经收购过一家公司,当时在一些棘手问题的解决方式上遇到了挑战。我还记得在作证录口供(deposition)时——我倒不想说那是我最自豪的时刻之一,但也差不多了——对方问:“你们会如何形容作为 CEO 和管理者的 Greg?”他们回答说:“嗯,他嘴里说的全都是‘不’。”我认为这就是管理工作的一部分。你必须时刻做好准备,包括在投资上,你必须严守纪律,随时准备说“不”。
P1542:03:09
Trust me, we understand that a lot of people have this urgency to act. Ajit, you described it incredibly well.
相信我,我们非常明白很多人都有那种急于采取行动的冲动。Ajit,你刚才把这一点描述得精辟极了。
P1552:03:19
Ajit JainVice Chairman of Insurance Operations
Thank you.
谢谢。
P1562:03:21
Greg AbelPresident and CEO
Thank you. Let's go back to Becky. Becky?
谢谢。让我们再回到 Becky 这边。Becky?
P1572:03:23
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Thanks, Greg. This question is for Ajit, and the writer is Mindy Wasserman. The question is: How and when can you offer insurance to ships crossing the Strait of Hormuz?
谢谢,Greg。这个问题是问 Ajit 的,提问者是 Mindy Wasserman。问题是:你们如何以及何时能够为穿越霍尔木兹海峡(Strait of Hormuz)的船只提供保险?
P1582:03:40
Ajit JainVice Chairman of Insurance Operations
I mean, the short answer is depends on the price.
简短的回答就是:这取决于价格。
P1592:03:54
Greg AbelPresident and CEO
Ajit, I like your Charlie answer. Obviously some thought has gone into that because there's a lot of dynamics there.
Ajit,我喜欢你这种 Charlie 式的回答。不过显然你们对此已经做过一番思考,因为那里涉及很多复杂的动态。
P1602:04:08
Ajit JainVice Chairman of Insurance Operations
Yeah. There is a lot of chatter. There's a lot of need. Fortunately, there's enough capacity in the insurance world today that would like to write that risk for no other reason, but people are sitting on excess capital, and they'd like to find a way to deploy that excess capital. We ourselves have taken a small participation in a program that's being put in place so as to write insurance for the ships in the Strait of Hormuz. We haven't written any deals as yet. It's still being fine-tuned. If we can get our terms in terms of the underwriting decisions and the fact that the U.S. Navy will escort these ships, we have put a price on which we will be comfortable underwriting that risk. Nothing's happened as yet.
是的。目前外界对此有很多讨论,也确实存在很大的需求。幸运的是,如今保险市场上有着充足的承保能力,很多机构愿意承保这类风险,原因无他,只是因为大家手里都攒着过剩的资本,都在想方设法把这些过剩资本配置出去。我们自己也小比例参与了一个正在筹建的项目,该项目旨在为通行霍尔木兹海峡的船只提供保险。不过到目前为止,我们还没有签下任何保单,方案仍在微调之中。如果我们在核保决策条款上能够得到满足,再加上美国海军会为这些船只护航这一事实,我们已经定出了一个让我们觉得可以放心承保该风险的价格。但截至目前,还没有实际达成任何交易。
P1612:05:03
Greg AbelPresident and CEO
Thank you. Thanks, Ajit. Thanks, Becky. Station 3.
谢谢你。谢谢,Ajit。谢谢,Becky。请 3 号提问区提问。
P1622:05:12
Jia ShenShareholder, Shareholder (China)
Good morning, Mr. Abel. My name is Jia Shen, and I'm from China. My question is about the key investing principle, staying within your circle of competence. I imagine you and Mr. Buffett each have a somewhat different circle of competence. How do you plan to manage the portfolio established by Warren Buffett? Thank you.
Abel 先生,早上好。我叫 Jia Shen,来自中国。我的问题是关于核心投资原则——坚守能力圈(circle of competence)。我想您和 Buffett 先生各自的能力圈多少有些不同。请问您计划如何管理由 Warren Buffett 建立起来的投资组合?谢谢。
P1632:05:41
Greg AbelPresident and CEO
Thank you. Yeah. As far as managing the existing portfolio and what's in that portfolio, as you touched on, was put together by Warren. It is a group of companies that Warren understands thoroughly, and I would be very comfortable that I understand the businesses, the economic prospects of those businesses. That's why when I outlined it in the letter, I was really trying to send the message that, yes, we're very comfortable with those. We understand it, and yes, it's a concentrated portfolio, but, you know, their businesses will evolve, and there's risks that may surface, so we'll constantly evaluate it. It's a portfolio very comfortable with. You know, Warren touched on Tim Cook's amazing success with Apple.
谢谢你。是的,说到管理现有的投资组合以及组合里的持仓,正如你所提到的,它们是由 Warren 搭建起来的。这些公司都是 Warren 透彻理解的企业,而且我也很有把握地说,我理解这些企业的业务以及它们的经济前景。正因如此,当我在致股东信中梳理这些持仓时,我真正想传递的信息是:没错,我们对这些公司非常放心,我们理解它们的业务;是的,这是一个集中度很高的投资组合,但你知道,它们的业务会不断演进,也可能会浮现出新的风险,因此我们会持续对其进行评估。但总体而言,这是一个让我们非常放心的投资组合。你知道,Warren 刚才提到了 Tim Cook 在 Apple 取得的惊人成功。
P1642:06:49
You know, Warren Buffett and Tim Cook were recently discussing this, and they were talking about, well, Warren Buffett didn't invest in it because he saw it as a technology stock. He saw what the product was and how much the individual consumer valued it. It's a remarkable perspective, but it would be very much a similar perspective that I think many of us would apply. You know, maybe electricity, I know a lot. I know how to make sure something gets generated and how we're gonna transfer and all that. Am I really that interested in how they make the Apple phone? I'll be intrigued by where they make it and some of the risks and challenges around that.
你知道,Warren Buffett 和 Tim Cook 最近还在讨论这件事,他们谈到,Warren Buffett 当初投资 Apple 并不是因为把它看作一只科技股,而是看到了它的产品本身,以及广大个人消费者对这款产品的珍视程度。这是一个非常独到的视角,但我想这也是我们中许多人都会采用的非常相似的视角。好比说在电力行业,我懂很多,我知道如何确保把电发出来、如何输电等等。但至于他们具体是怎么制造出 Apple 手机的,我真的有那么感兴趣吗?真正吸引我注意的,会是他们在哪里生产手机,以及围绕生产布局存在哪些风险和挑战。
P1652:07:29
I do fully, our team, you know, when we talk about it on a more broad basis, listen, we're looking and saying, "Do we understand the value and why that product has value?" It's really that value to the consumer. I think the unique opportunity we have and so fortunate is that Warren comes into the office each day. It's fortunate that we get to discuss potential other opportunities that may be out there, bringing a different set of skill sets. In the end, we're gonna narrow pretty quickly down to what's the opportunity? Why is it valued? Why does the consumer, whoever is using it, whatever industry it is, why will that company and that product endure? Associated with that, where are the risks associated with that?
从更广泛的层面来谈,我和我们的团队在审视一项业务时,我们关注并思考的是:“我们是否理解它的价值,以及这款产品为什么具有价值?”核心其实就是它对消费者的价值。我认为我们所拥有的独特优势、也是极其幸运的一点,就是 Warren 每天都会来办公室。很幸运我们能够一起讨论市场上可能出现的其他潜在机会,并融合各自不同的技能专长。但归根结底,我们都会非常迅速地聚焦到核心问题上:机会究竟是什么?它为什么有价值?无论是哪个行业、无论使用者是谁,为什么消费者会认可它,为什么这家公司和这款产品能够长盛不衰?与之相伴的,又有哪些相关的风险?
P1662:08:25
That pretty much is how Warren approached it, how I approach it. The, when it comes to our existing portfolio, yes, we'll always be well aware of what we've invested in. As far as understanding those, the opportunities and risks within them, very comfortable that, have a strong view in that, and we're comfortable where we're at. Thank you. Did you read anything there?
这基本上就是 Warren 一贯的方法,也是我的方法。至于我们现有的投资组合,是的,我们始终对所投资的标的心中有数。就理解这些业务及其内在的机会与风险而言,我们非常有把握,对此持有明确的判断,并对目前的持仓状况感到很放心。谢谢你。Ajit,你有什么要补充的吗?
P1672:09:00
Ajit JainVice Chairman of Insurance Operations
No.
没有。
P1682:09:01
Greg AbelPresident and CEO
Okay. Becky?
好的。Becky?
P1692:09:05
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
This question is for Greg, but I think it's important that you take it while Ajit's on stage with you so he can answer some of it, too. It comes from Zachary Phelps from Medfield, Massachusetts, who writes, "Ajit Jain has been described by Warren as irreplaceable. He's helped build one of the greatest insurance operations in history and has been the backbone of Berkshire's underwriting discipline. How are you thinking about succession planning for Ajit and the insurance business, and how do you ensure that the underwriting culture, the insurance moat, is preserved in the next generation of leaders?" Greg, I'll just add for compression's sake, I did get questions about your succession planning, too, so maybe you can add that in there.
这个问题是问 Greg 的,但我觉得趁 Ajit 和你同台的时候提出这个问题很重要,这样他也可以回答其中一部分。问题来自马萨诸塞州梅德菲尔德(Medfield)的 Zachary Phelps,他写道:“Ajit Jain 曾被 Warren 形容为不可替代的人物。他帮助打造了历史上最伟大的保险业务之一,并且一直是 Berkshire 承保纪律的中流砥柱。你们如何考虑 Ajit 以及保险业务的继任规划?你们又将如何确保这种承保文化——也就是保险业务的护城河——能在下一代领导者手中得以延续?”Greg,为了节省时间我顺便补充一下,我也收到了一些关于你本人的继任规划的问题,也许你可以一并谈谈。
P1702:09:47
Greg AbelPresident and CEO
I don't know how I'm supposed to take that. No, both obviously, succession's an important topic, and I'll come back to our board both relative to Ajit and I. I touched on this earlier. I mean, Ajit joined Berkshire in 1986 and is the architect of our insurance business, along with obviously Warren and input from Charlie. We've created a franchise that's second to none, and we couldn't be more proud of it. As it was touched on, the culture and the discipline within it is exceptional.
我不知道该怎么接你最后这句话。不过说正经的,显然继任规划在这两方面都是一个非常重要的话题,关于 Ajit 和我本人的继任安排,稍后我会谈到董事会的规划。我之前也提到过,Ajit 于 1986 年加入 Berkshire,与 Warren 以及提供宝贵意见的 Charlie 一起,成为了我们保险业务的总设计师。我们已经打造出了一个首屈一指的保险业务版图,对此我们无比自豪。正如刚才所提到的,其中的文化与承保纪律更是出类拔萃。
P1712:10:28
I found it really interesting, you know, when Warren announced the transition last year, and Ajit will recall this, the very first thing that happened was we left that meeting, there's a lot going on, and Warren said to Ajit, but then also myself, "Let's get the insurance managers together," our top 5 along with Ajit and with Marc Hamburg, "and let's sit down and talk about the business. Let's talk or let's discuss the culture." It was a remarkable opportunity for me to, 1, expand my knowledge base on the insurance side. I obviously been working with Ajit for a number of years and had other board opportunities where I had a wide understanding of it.
我觉得有一件事特别有意思,当去年 Warren 宣布交接过渡安排时——Ajit 应该还记得这件事——散会后发生的第一件事,当时各种事情千头万绪,而 Warren 对 Ajit 和我说:“让我们把保险业务的管理者们召集到一起,”也就是我们的前 5 大保险业务负责人,加上 Ajit 和 Marc Hamburg,“让我们坐下来聊聊业务,探讨一下我们的文化。”这对我来说是一个非常难得的机会:1 是拓展我在保险领域的知识储备——显然我已经和 Ajit 共事多年,并且通过其他董事会的工作对保险业务有了广泛的了解;
P1722:11:17
To spend time with Ajit and our team and have Warren's perspectives, it was great. That was literally the first action Warren took. What I could see within that group was a very deep group that of management experience, insurance experience, and they absolutely had the same values and culture that Ajit has highlighted. I think when it comes to culture, Ajit touched on it already, which is it is challenging to keep a culture where you maintain that discipline. Because as he said, inaction and telling people, you know, take a few months off when they're used to being active is not easy if they're that type of underwriter or selling product. That's the delicate balance. When it comes to Ajit, we're fortunate.
但能够和 Ajit 及我们的核心团队坐在一起,聆听 Warren 的见解,实在太棒了。那真真正正是 Warren 采取的第一个行动。从那个核心团队身上,我看到了极其深厚的管理经验和保险专业造诣,而且他们完完全全秉持着与 Ajit 所强调的一模一样的价值观和文化。我认为在文化传承方面,Ajit 刚才已经点出了关键,那就是要维持一种严守纪律的文化确实很有挑战性。因为正如他所说,当那些习惯了忙碌的核保人或销售人员无单可写时,要求他们按兵不动、甚至告诉他们“去休几个月假吧”,这绝非易事。这是一种微妙的平衡。而说到 Ajit 的团队,我们非常幸运。
P1732:12:13
He's got an exceptional group that works with him and then also operates a number of our critical subsidiaries. They're deep in both knowledge and talent. I would then also highlight our board takes the succession issues very seriously, both with Ajit and myself. They have a plan in place, and they discuss it. If Ajit were unable to perform in his role today, or I was unable to perform, our board knows what action they would take. Ajit?
他身边有一支极其优秀的团队与他并肩作战,同时也负责运营着我们旗下多家关键的保险子公司。他们在专业知识和人才储备上都非常深厚。此外我还要强调,我们的董事会非常重视继任问题,无论是针对 Ajit 还是针对我本人。董事会已经制定了明确的预案,并且会定期讨论。如果今天 Ajit 无法履行职责,或者我无法履行职责,我们的董事会完全清楚应当采取什么行动。Ajit?
P1742:12:53
Ajit JainVice Chairman of Insurance Operations
Yeah. In terms of the culture and the underwriting orientation, which is so critical, there are a few simple rules that I've followed over the years. It's come at a cost, but I think net-net it's still a positive. Let me just lay it out in terms of how I think about this issue. Firstly, we have a very small number of people who actually get involved in the decision-making. My top 3 lieutenants in my reinsurance operation, forgetting about companies that we acquired, we have been together for 35 plus years now, and we've become friends.
是的。谈到至关重要的企业文化和承保导向,多年来我一直遵循着几条简单的原则。这确实付出了一定的代价,但我认为综合权衡下来(net-net),结果依然是利大于弊的。让我简单阐述一下我是如何思考这个问题的。首先,我们真正参与核心决策的人数非常少。撇开我们收购来的公司不谈,在我的再保险业务部门里,我的 3 位核心副手和我已经共事了 35 年以上,而且我们已经成为了挚友。
P1752:13:43
The other thing, to minimize any kind of competition among these people and stepping on each other's toes, we have a compensation plan that gives fixed salaries, fixed compensation to the individuals, as opposed to having some complex formula that results in they get the upside and Berkshire gets the downside. I try and stay away from that as much as possible.
另一点是,为了尽量减少这些人之间的任何竞争以及互相踩脚,我们的薪酬计划向个人提供固定薪水、固定薪酬,而不是搞一些复杂的公式,结果变成他们拿走上行收益,而 Berkshire 承担下行风险。我尽可能远离那种做法。
P1762:14:09
Greg AbelPresident and CEO
Thank you, Ajit.
谢谢你,Ajit。
P1772:14:10
Ajit JainVice Chairman of Insurance Operations
It's really a problem with all the compensation plans I've seen. The other thing that is important is people need to have experienced going through a tough time and the fact that it doesn't penalize them. We insulate them from the ups and downs of the marketplace so that they feel secure, and they do the right thing. Those are the elements that I think allow us to have a long-term orientation and not get sucked into the latest fashion of the year.
这确实是我见过的所有薪酬计划都存在的问题。另一件重要的事情是,人们需要经历过艰难时期,并且体会到这并不会惩罚他们。我们将他们与市场的起伏隔离开来,让他们感到有安全感,从而去做正确的事。我认为正是这些要素让我们能够保持长期导向,而不会被当年的最新潮流卷进去。
P1782:14:50
Greg AbelPresident and CEO
Right
没错。
P1792:14:50
Ajit JainVice Chairman of Insurance Operations
The day and just do stuff for the sake of doing.
或者追逐一时的风潮,只是为了做事而做事。
P1802:14:54
Greg AbelPresident and CEO
Your compensation question is such a critical point, Ajit.
你谈到的薪酬问题是至关重要的一点,Ajit。
P1812:14:58
Ajit JainVice Chairman of Insurance Operations
Yeah. The compensation thing, having seen all these programs over the years, I remember having mentioned to Warren at some point in time, I said, "Warren, you give me a compensation plan, I'll game it. You'll not be able to figure it out for years down the road." That's the problem. Together with the fact that if the employees lose, they want to go back and renegotiate the plan, and if they win, they're happy to walk away with everything. That's the big challenge.
是的。关于薪酬这件事,这么多年来见过了所有这些方案,我记得曾在某个时候对 Warren 提过,我说:“Warren,你给我一个薪酬计划,我就能钻它的空子。而且好几年之后你都看不出来。”这就是问题所在。再加上如果员工亏了,他们就想回头重新谈判薪酬计划;而如果他们赢了,他们就很乐意拿走一切。这是个很大的挑战。
P1822:15:32
Greg AbelPresident and CEO
Thank you. Thank you, Ajit. Thank you, Becky. We'll go to station 4.
谢谢。谢谢你,Ajit。谢谢你,Becky。我们请 4 号提问区提问。
P1832:15:42
Kansas LohmeierShareholder, Shareholder (Omaha)
Hello, Mr. Abel. My name is Kansas, and I attend Elkhorn South High School in West Omaha. Mr. Abel, you may remember me from last year, and I'm here to question your company's business model again. It is compromising my future and the planet's future. Mr. Abel, in your first letter to shareholders, you wrote, "Berkshire Hathaway avoids businesses that undermine the fabric of society." Berkshire's electric utilities continue to invest in fossil fuels that are driving the climate crisis. Can you tell me and my graduating class when Berkshire Hathaway's utilities will retire their fossil fuels, transition to renewable alternatives, and stop causing irreparable damage to the environment and my generation's future? Thank you.
你好,Abel 先生。我叫 Kansas,就读于西奥马哈的 Elkhorn South High School(埃尔克霍恩南高中)。Abel 先生,你可能还记得去年的我,我今天再次来到这里质疑贵公司的商业模式。它正在危及我的未来和地球的未来。Abel 先生,在你的第一封致股东信中,你写道:“Berkshire Hathaway 避开那些破坏社会根基的业务。”然而 Berkshire 的电力公用事业公司继续投资于正在加剧气候危机的化石燃料。你能告诉我以及我们这一届毕业生,Berkshire Hathaway 的公用事业公司什么时候会淘汰化石燃料、向可再生能源替代方案转型,并停止对环境和我们这一代人的未来造成不可挽回的破坏吗?谢谢。
P1842:16:37
Greg AbelPresident and CEO
Thank you. I had a very long and extensive answer last year to the question. It is an important one, but I think it's one we have to recognize. I'll touch on rail or rail, too. We have certain companies where we very much operate now. This would be our utilities. It would be our, including our pipelines. We operate as a steward of those assets. We operate as a steward of those assets effectively for our states and for our customers. Whenever we approach resources, for example, that we may own or what we're going to build, it's very much first and foremost, we absolutely need to comply with the current laws that are in place, including the federal laws.
谢谢。去年我对这个问题做过非常长且详尽的回答。这是一个重要的问题,但我认为有一点我们必须认识到。我也会谈到铁路业务。我们旗下有一些目前正在运营的公司,这包括我们的公用事业公司,也包括我们的管道业务。我们是作为这些资产的管理者在运营。实际上,我们是在为我们所在的各个州和我们的客户管理这些资产。每当我们处理资源问题时——例如我们可能拥有的资源或我们将要建设的设施——首先也是最重要的,是我们绝对需要遵守现行的法律,包括联邦法律。
P1852:17:44
We know what those parameters are, and as we see federal law and state law across our many states. The federal law, there are things they do, and there are things implemented to reduce the impact on the environment. We're very sensitive to that, and our teams are absolutely committed to both complying and absolutely doing it right. I would add that if we're discussing our facilities, for example, across the river in Iowa, we have plans on resources and when we'll retire our coal units potentially and our gas units. That's very much driven by state policy. It's the state will decide, i.e., through their policy legislature and through our regulatory processes, how we'll operate, how long we operate these assets.
我们清楚这些规范参数是什么,因为我们在许多州同时面对联邦法律和州法律。在联邦法律层面,政府采取了一些措施,并实施了一些旨在减少环境影响的规定。我们对此非常敏感,我们的团队绝对致力于既做到合规,又把事情做好。我想补充一点,如果我们讨论我们的设施,比如河对岸爱荷华州的设施,我们对资源配置以及何时可能退役燃煤机组和燃气机组都有规划。这在很大程度上是由州政策驱动的。是由州政府——即通过其政策立法机构和我们的监管流程——来决定我们将如何运营这些资产,以及运营多长时间。
P1862:18:47
In the end, it's those customers that both bear the cost and bear the risk. Very much we are very respectful of that, and as I said, we're stewards of that. Do we provide input into that process? Absolutely. For example, I know I touched on this last year, but if I look at our Iowa utility, this changes every year because of the load growth we've discussed. If we look at on a 12-month, 365-day period, it'll be very close on this. Approximately 93% of our energy came from renewable energy. That's remarkable. They absolutely lead the nation, and we've done that in a way where we could do it in an affordable way. Yes, we still have our carbon resources there.
归根结底,是那些客户既承担成本又承担风险。我们非常尊重这一点,正如我所说,我们是这些资产的管理者。我们会在这个过程中提供意见吗?当然会。例如,我知道去年我提到过这一点,但看看我们在爱荷华州的公用事业公司——由于我们讨论过的负荷增长,这个数字每年都在变化——如果我们看一个 12 个月、365 天的周期,数据会非常接近这个水平:我们大约 93% 的能源来自可再生能源。这是非常了不起的。他们绝对领先全国,而且我们是以一种价格可负担的方式做到的。是的,我们在那里仍然保留着碳基能源资源。
P1872:19:49
We still operate our coal plants. We need them to deliver as I would call protection to the system, i.e., it stabilizes it, and there's peak times we need it. Do we use them less? Absolutely. That's a policy our state made many years ago, and we provided a lot input, as I said, and we've deployed the capital to ensure that could be delivered. The reality is, state by state, they'll decide what resources we'll deploy to serve the customers, and they'll also very much provide us input on when we'll retire our units.
我们仍然在运营我们的燃煤电厂。我们需要它们为电网系统提供我称之为保护的作用,也就是说,它能稳定电网系统,而且在用电高峰期我们需要它。我们使用它们的频率降低了吗?绝对降低了。那是我们所在的州很多年前制定的一项政策,正如我所说,我们提供了大量意见,并且投入了资金以确保这一目标得以实现。现实情况是,各个州会逐一决定我们将部署什么资源来服务客户,同时他们也会就我们何时退役机组向我们提供重要指导意见。
P1882:20:34
The real challenge going forward, and it's well beyond Iowa, because I think Iowa, and our other utilities, we approach it in a very prudent way, and we've got one, i.e., prudently, we're doing it consistent with our state policy, but want to do it in a, call it a frugal way. We're not building for just sake of building. We're trying to do things that we feel are best for our states.
未来的真正挑战远不止于爱荷华州,因为我认为在爱荷华州以及我们的其他公用事业公司,我们都采取了非常审慎的方式,也就是说,我们审慎地按照各州政策行事,同时希望以一种可以说是节俭的方式来做。我们不会为了建设而建设。我们努力去做我们认为对所在各州最有利的事情。
P1892:20:59
The challenge is when you talk about the hyperscalers and the data centers, that's putting a lot of pressure on the system and there'll be if you look at the amount of gas units purchased, there'll be an incremental amount of carbon units used as we go forward if that's going to be a valued, if artificial intelligence and the consumers want that, and that's a valued product, it's gonna put a lot of pressure on the systems and on the type of assets we use and the industry uses. Ajit, anything on the insurance side? Because I know you've gone on the insurance side as far as how, what do we insure? How do we approach it?
挑战在于,当你谈到超大规模云服务商(hyperscalers)和数据中心时,这给电网系统带来了很大压力。如果你看看采购的燃气机组数量就会发现,未来如果人工智能受到消费者青睐、成为一项有价值的产品,我们将会使用更多的增量碳基机组,这会对电力系统以及我们和整个行业所使用的资产类型带来很大压力。Ajit,保险方面有什么补充吗?因为我知道你在保险业务上也考虑过,我们承保什么?我们如何对待这类业务?
P1902:21:48
Ajit JainVice Chairman of Insurance Operations
Yeah. Right now in the insurance sphere, the supply is greater than the demand. That makes it very difficult to be able to carve out a deal that rationally is good for the buyer and the seller. When supply is greater than demand, it's the seller that loses. Because of that, we haven't been active in getting involved in writing insurance for these new facilities, the data centers.
是的。目前在保险领域,供给大于需求。这使得我们很难达成一项在理性上对买卖双方都有利的交易。当供大于求时,吃亏的是卖方。正因为如此,我们一直没有积极参与为这些新设施、也就是数据中心承保。
P1912:22:24
Greg AbelPresident and CEO
The hyperscalers.
也就是超大规模云服务商。
P1922:22:25
Ajit JainVice Chairman of Insurance Operations
Yeah.
是的。
P1932:22:26
Greg AbelPresident and CEO
Yeah.
是的。
P1942:22:27
Ajit JainVice Chairman of Insurance Operations
Clearly there is a surge in demand, and as long as supply doesn't go crazy, we will get a few days in the sun sometime in these next few years.
显然需求正在激增,只要供给不陷入疯狂,在未来几年里的某个时候,我们会迎来属于自己的好日子。
P1952:22:41
Greg AbelPresident and CEO
Yeah. Thank you, Ajit. Very valid question, but again, very, very proud, I would say literally proud because I think the one thing we've always emphasized across our utilities, across our regulated entities, I would include BNSF. They have to move certain product that has certain risks and dangers around it. We are a carrier of that. We have to. That's an obligation that came with that railroad. Just like our utilities. There are certain things we do that are absolutely required, and the key is that we do it consistent with what's required both federally and at the state level, and that we're exceptional stewards of the underlying assets. With that, we're gonna move, Ajit, thank you. We're gonna move to our next session, but let me explain how it's gonna play out a little bit.
是的。谢谢你,Ajit。这是一个非常合理的问题,但同样,我感到非常、非常自豪——我可以说是真正意义上的自豪——因为我认为我们在所有公用事业公司、所有受监管实体(包括 BNSF)中始终强调一点:他们必须运输某些带有特定风险和危险的产品,我们是这些产品的承运人,我们必须承担这一职责。这是那条铁路与生俱来的义务,就像我们的公用事业公司一样。有些事情是我们绝对必须去做的,关键在于我们的做法要符合联邦和州一级的规定要求,并且我们要成为底层资产的卓越管理者。说到这里,Ajit,谢谢你,我们要进入下一个环节了,不过让我稍微解释一下接下来的安排。
P1962:23:40
We're approaching 11:00. As we transition, we'll move to a NetJets video. Again, just give you some more knowledge on NetJets and Adam Johnson. We'll take a break, but this is the exciting part, and we're very fortunate Warren agreed to this. At 11:45, Becky and Warren will do an interview backstage. Basically in 45 minutes, if you take a break and then reconvene, we'll have Warren on the large screen. Becky will interview him. As we take the break, there'll be a couple other activities. One, you'll get a 3-minute warning before the 11:45, so if you'd like to rejoin us. You'll be able to see it throughout the arena, but it'll be a, again, a, an interview from Warren.
现在快到 11:00 了。在过渡期间,我们将播放一段 NetJets 的视频,让大家对 NetJets 和 Adam Johnson 有更多了解。随后我们会休息一下,但接下来是令人兴奋的部分,我们非常幸运 Warren 同意了这一安排:在 11:45,Becky 和 Warren 将在后台进行一场访谈。基本上在 45 分钟后,大家休息完重新回到座位时,我们将在大屏幕上看到 Warren,Becky 会对他进行采访。在休息期间,还会有另外几项活动:第一,在 11:45 之前会有 3 分钟的倒计时提醒,方便大家重新回到会场;整个场馆内都能看到大屏幕,这将是一段对 Warren 的访谈。
P1972:24:38
Also during the break, we often did commercials during the movies. We could have incorporated into the video. We'll have those at the 15-minute mark, basically at 11:30. The commercials will play. That'll be a 12-minute reel of our various commercials from our different companies. Be a 3-minute warning. Then we have the interview with Warren. Then we'll recommence the third session. As we recommence that session, we'll have a video from Katie on BNSF that'll allow our team to get settled in here. Please enjoy your break as we go to it. Becky and Warren, we look forward to your interview. Thank you.
另外在休息期间,以前我们通常会在放电影时插播广告,本来也可以把它们整合进视频里,但这次我们会在休息满 15 分钟时——基本上就是 11:30——播放这些广告。届时将播放一段长约 12 分钟、汇集了我们旗下不同公司各类广告的合集。之后会有 3 分钟的倒计时提醒,接着就是对 Warren 的访谈。再往后我们将重新开始第三阶段的会议。在重新开始该阶段会议时,我们会先播放一段 Katie 关于 BNSF 的视频,好让我们的团队在这里坐定。现在进入休息时间,请大家尽情休息。Becky 和 Warren,我们期待你们的访谈。谢谢大家。
P1982:25:34
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
Back to CNBC's special coverage of the Berkshire Hathaway annual shareholder meeting. I'm Mike Santoli, live in Omaha, Nebraska. CEO Greg Abel and Vice Chairman of Insurance Operations Ajit Jain taking questions for a little over an hour after Abel presented a state of the business update. Abel has just called a break, and he also told shareholders that Becky Quick will interview Chairman Warren Buffett. That will kick off in less than an hour right here on cnbc.com. We have a big halftime show for you. Becky Quick is heading back over here to join us, and we'll speak with Occidental Petroleum CEO Vicki Hollub, Berkshire's Brooks Running CEO Dan Sheridan, and former Activision Blizzard CEO and longtime Berkshire shareholder Bobby Kotick. While this morning was the start of a new era with Greg Abel running things, Warren Buffett stole the show to start off.
欢迎回到 CNBC 对 Berkshire Hathaway 年度股东大会的特别报道。我是 Mike Santoli,在内布拉斯加州奥马哈为您现场直播。在 CEO Greg Abel 作了业务现状更新报告之后,Greg Abel 与保险业务副董事长 Ajit Jain 进行了略多于一个小时的问答。Abel 刚刚宣布中场休息,同时他告诉股东们,Becky Quick 将采访董事长 Warren Buffett。这场访谈将在不到一小时后在 cnbc.com 准时开始。我们为大家准备了精彩的中场节目。Becky Quick 正在返回演播台与我们汇合,我们还将对话 Occidental Petroleum(西方石油公司)CEO Vicki Hollub、Berkshire 旗下 Brooks Running 的 CEO Dan Sheridan,以及前 Activision Blizzard(动视暴雪)CEO 兼 Berkshire 长期股东 Bobby Kotick。虽然今天上午标志着 Greg Abel 掌舵的新时代正式开启,但开场时抢尽风头的依然是 Warren Buffett。
P1992:26:22
It began with Greg Abel thanking Warren for his 60 years running Berkshire and raising a Buffett banner to the rafters of the arena, symbolically retiring his number 60 jersey. The crowd wildly cheering this moment. After that, Abel turned over the mic to Warren Buffett himself, who was seated on the floor. Buffett started out by saying how happy he is with his decision to turn Berkshire over to Greg Abel, saying, "We couldn't have made a better decision," adding that Greg is the right person. Buffett then trumpeted Berkshire's biggest holding, of course, that is Apple.
大会一开始,Greg Abel 感谢了 Warren 执掌 Berkshire 60 年来的付出,并将一面印有 Buffett 名字的旗帜升上场馆穹顶,象征性地退役了他的 60 号球衣。全场观众为这一刻热烈欢呼。随后,Abel 把麦克风交给了坐在台下观众席前排的 Warren Buffett 本人。Buffett 一开口便表示,他对自己将 Berkshire 交棒给 Greg Abel 的决定感到非常高兴,他说:“我们不可能做出比这更好的决定了”,并补充说 Greg 就是合适的人选。接着,Buffett 大力称赞了 Berkshire 最大的持仓,当然,那就是 Apple。
P2002:27:04
Greg AbelPresident and CEO
Ten years ago.
10 年前。
P2012:27:07
Warren BuffettChairman
We made a commitment to essentially move 10% of the resources of Berkshire Hathaway. We turned it over to another, a person who was not that well known at the time, and we did that by spending roughly $35 billion buying stock in Apple Inc.. We were going to have that under the management. We're turning that money over to the management essentially of Apple to make Berkshire look good without any work by us, which is our preferred way of operating. I would like to report that 10 years later, several things are happening. One is the $35 billion counting dividends, realized appreciation, unrealized appreciation, but that has turned into $185 billion pre-tax. I didn't have to do a damn thing.
我们当时做出了一个决定,实际上是将 Berkshire Hathaway 约 10% 的资源进行调配。我们把它交给了另一个人——一个当时还不那么为人所知的人——我们的做法是斥资大约 350 亿美元买入 Apple Inc. 的股票。我们打算让这笔资金由他们管理,实际上就是把这笔钱交给 Apple 的管理层,完全不需要我们干任何活就能让 Berkshire 面上有光,而这正是我们最喜欢的经营方式。我想向大家汇报,10 年后的今天,发生了几件事:第一,如果算上股息、已实现增值和未实现增值,当初那 350 亿美元在税前已经变成了 1850 亿美元。而我一丁点儿活都没干。
P2022:28:53
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
Buffett also took a moment to recognize CEO Tim Cook as he gets ready to step down this fall.
在 CEO Tim Cook 准备于今年秋天卸任之际,Buffett 也借此机会向他表示了敬意。
P2032:29:00
Warren BuffettChairman
Tim has announced that he's retiring as well. That's an announcement that's just been made in the last couple of years. I think it's appropriate if Tim would take a bow and our shareholders would say thanks to him that. Tim is right by me.
Tim 也已经宣布他即将退休。这是过去一两年间做出的宣布。我认为如果 Tim 能起身鞠个躬,让我们的股东向他道一声感谢,那再合适不过了。Tim 就坐在我旁边。
P2042:29:31
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
Warren did not, you know, make mention of the fact that Tim Cook is retiring at an age 30 years younger than Warren himself did. He's at 65 right now. Now, following all that, Greg Abel then went into the business update, and one of the things that struck out was AI and the need for Berkshire to build out its own tech infrastructure to work across all of its businesses.
你知道,Warren 没有提到的一点是,Tim Cook 退休时的年龄比 Warren 自己退休时要年轻 30 岁。他现在是 65 岁。在这之后,Greg Abel 开始了业务更新汇报,其中非常突出的一点是 AI(人工智能),以及 Berkshire 需要建设自己的技术基础设施,以便在旗下所有业务之间协同运作。
P2052:29:55
Greg AbelPresident and CEO
First and foremost, we recognized we were going to become a builder of technology rather than just a buyer of technology, that meant that instead of we had a number of systems and we often bought the related applications or software that came with it. Yes, it's a valued application, but it was disconnected from all our systems obviously. We didn't have that ability to then use the information, get to the data. What they started to talk about is simplifying the infrastructure, making sure we would build what we needed ourselves and deliver solutions back to our customers, and we would have clear access to the data. All things that make a lot of sense, but a massive challenge, and it doesn't happen overnight.
首先也是最重要的,我们认识到我们将成为技术的建设者,而不仅仅是技术的购买者。这意味着,过去我们有许多套系统,并且经常购买随之附带的应用程序或软件;是的,那些应用程序很有价值,但显然它们与我们的所有其他系统是脱节的,我们无法利用那些信息、获取那些数据。因此,团队开始讨论简化基础设施,确保我们自己构建所需的东西,并向客户提供解决方案,同时让我们能够清晰地获取数据。所有这些都非常有道理,但这是一项艰巨的挑战,不可能一蹴而就。
P2062:30:46
We started down that journey, and one of the first things you have to do is say, "Okay, we need a different resource base." Now we're hiring engineers. We hire developers in our technology group that help us start to build the solutions we need for these businesses.
我们踏上了这段旅程,而你首先要做的事情之一就是说:“好吧,我们需要不同的人才资源基础。”现在我们正在招聘工程师,在我们的技术部门招聘开发人员,帮助我们开始为这些业务构建所需的解决方案。
P2072:31:08
Intermission CommentatorCommentator, CNBC
I don't have my news.
我手头没有新闻稿。
P2082:31:12
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
That was Greg talking about the need for, you know, cross-investment across AI. AI a little bit of a subtheme, of course, in the morning in various ways.
以上是 Greg 谈到围绕 AI 进行跨业务投资的必要性。当然,AI 在今天上午以各种方式成为了一个次要主题。
P2092:31:20
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Yeah. I mean, I think what's so different about this meeting, I know what you said before I got back here.
是的。我是说,我知道在我回来之前你已经聊过了,但我认为这次股东大会最不同寻常的地方——
P2102:31:24
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
Yep
没错。
P2112:31:24
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
is just the amount of information that Greg and then Ajit kind of unloaded on the investors about the businesses that they own, on the shareholders about these businesses that they own.
——就是 Greg 和随后的 Ajit 向投资者、向股东们倾囊相授了大量关于他们所拥有的这些业务的信息。
P2122:31:36
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
Yes.
是的。
P2132:31:36
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
The only thing I'll say as somebody who sat here for a long time and had a lot of questions from shareholders, I was checking off questions left and right that he was answering before we even got to.
作为一个在这里坐了很长时间、手里攒了一大堆股东提问的人,我唯一想说的是,在我们甚至还没来得及问到之前,他就已经回答了太多问题,我一直在不停地把问题从清单上划掉——
P2142:31:44
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
Yeah
是的。
P2152:31:44
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
... of these things. He went pretty deep into this, I think if you're a shareholder, you probably feel a lot more comfortable kind of understanding, A, not only a lot about these businesses, also realizing, B, Greg knows an awful lot and very deep on all of these businesses too.
——涵盖了方方面面。他讲得非常深入,我想如果你是一位股东,你现在可能会感到安心得多,因为你不仅(A)对这些业务有了很多了解,而且还意识到(B)Greg 对所有这些业务也了如指掌、理解极其深刻。
P2162:32:00
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
Definitely conveyed.
这确实充分传达了——
P2172:32:01
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Yeah
是的。
P2182:32:01
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
sort of the breadth of his grasp. Without a doubt, there was a density of the information.
——他掌控全局的广度。毫无疑问,刚才的信息密度非常高。
P2192:32:06
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
yeah.
是的。
P2202:32:06
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
Also, I think Warren and Charlie, while he was here, they sort of assumed a level of familiarity.
另外,我认为以前 Warren 和在世时的 Charlie,他们某种程度上默认大家都已经很熟悉——
P2212:32:11
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Yeah
是的。
P2222:32:11
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
... with the broad outlines of the business.
——公司业务的大致轮廓了。
P2232:32:13
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Yeah
是的。
P2242:32:13
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
... not having to explain necessarily the insurance float and how much flows through. I do think there's value in bringing people up to that point. I detected, even though he's never gonna have any kind of corny corporate speak about synergy.
——觉得不一定要去解释保险浮存金以及有多少资金流转其中。但我确实认为,帮大家把认知拉齐到这个水平是很有价值的。而且我察觉到,尽管他绝不会讲任何关于“协同效应”之类老掉牙的企业套话——
P2252:32:26
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Yeah
是的。
P2262:32:26
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
... he was drawing connections. He was talking about there's a metals business within the industrials businesses that all sort of have a connection to each other.
——但他一直在梳理各业务之间的联系。他谈到工业板块内部有一块金属业务,这些业务彼此之间都有某种联系。
P2272:32:35
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Yeah.
是的。
P2282:32:35
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
They, whether they were a customer of the other. It's not to say that the conglomerate magic works because everything fits together.
无论它们是不是彼此的客户。这并不是说多元化集团的魔力之所以奏效是因为所有业务都严丝合缝地拼接在一起——
P2292:32:43
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Right
没错。
P2302:32:43
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
... but it's not random.
——但它们并非毫无章法地随机拼凑。
P2312:32:44
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Right. Again, on the AI.
没错。还有再说到 AI 方面——
P2322:32:47
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
Yeah
是的。
P2332:32:47
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
that you have these centralized office operations, I've still gotta go back and look through some of these questions to see which ones.
——现在有了这些集中化的总部层面运作,我还得回过头去翻看一些股东提问,看看哪些问题——
P2342:32:53
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
Right
没错。
P2352:32:53
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
still apply on all of those levels. Is this still a decentralized kind of?
——在所有这些层面上依然适用。这依然是一种分权式的、
P2362:32:58
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
Right
没错。
P2372:32:58
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
minimally oversight? He said, "We're not gonna have bureaucracy." It sounds like it's a lot more centralized, at least in notion. It has been to this point and certainly a lot more attention coming on operations too.
极少干预的监督模式吗?他说:“我们不会搞官僚主义。”但听起来至少在理念上比以前集中化了很多。与迄今为止的做法相比确实如此,而且对具体运营的关注度也明显提高了很多。
P2382:33:11
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
He refers to operational excellence.
他提到了“卓越运营”(operational excellence)。
P2392:33:12
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Yeah.
是的。
P2402:33:13
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
It seems like it's a kind of an internal catchphrase.
这听起来像是某种内部口号。
P2412:33:16
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Yeah.
是的。
P2422:33:16
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
That means something.
但它是有实际内涵的。
P2432:33:17
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Yeah.
是的。
P2442:33:17
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
It means, you know, attention to margins or maybe some compensation, things, maybe just, you know, a closer eye on some stuff.
它意味着,比如对利润率的关注,或者某些薪酬方面的安排,又或者只是对某些事务盯得更紧一些。
P2452:33:23
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
The other thing I'll say from this, when Ajit sat down with him, the two of them kind of going back and forth.
关于刚才的环节,我还想说的另一点是,当 Ajit 和他坐在一起时,他们俩之间的那种你来我往的互动。
P2462:33:30
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
Yeah.
是的。
P2472:33:30
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
That was a more comfortable conversation and a more philosophical conversation.
那是一场更加自在、也更加富有哲理的对话——
P2482:33:39
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
Yes.
是的。
P2492:33:39
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
I should say, than I've heard in the past with those two. It was a little more reminiscent of Charlie and Warren sitting on stage together.
应该说,比我过去听到的他们俩之间的对话都要更自如。这让人稍微有点想起当年 Charlie 和 Warren 一起坐在台上的样子。
P2502:33:46
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
It was, yeah.
确实是的。
P2512:33:46
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Where they kind of riffed off each other a little bit. Not, not on the same level, but there was a new level of comfort and a new level of kind of stepping into their roles and not worrying about looking over their shoulders about what anybody else was paying attention to.
他们俩之间会互相接话、即兴发挥一下。虽然还不是完全同一个级别,但能看出一种全新程度的从容,以及真正进入各自角色的状态,不再瞻前顾后地担心别人怎么看。
P2522:33:59
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
Sure.
确实。
P2532:33:59
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
With it. What Ajit Jain was just saying, where he was speaking about how they get down to the idea that you don't want to do. Like, the key to doing something great in insurance is to not do anything. Say no just about everything.
正是如此。而且刚才 Ajit Jain 讲到的那番话,他谈到他们如何归结出一个理念,那就是你不想乱做事。也就是说,在保险行业做出卓越成绩的关键,就是什么都不做,对几乎所有事情都说“不”。
P2542:34:08
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
Your job is to say no. Yeah.
你的工作就是说“不”。是的。
P2552:34:10
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
To tell all of your, the people that you have underneath you to make sure that their compensation is not based on them writing insurance for them.
并且告诉手下的所有人,确保他们的薪酬不是建立在为了拿奖金而去签保单的基础之上——
P2562:34:17
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
Right
没错。
P2572:34:17
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
... to get paid. It is on making sure you are making the right choices, and you are going to have a flat compensation structure no matter what. You are not incentivized to go out and do the very thing that is going to wind up.
——而是建立在确保你做出正确选择的基础之上,无论如何你都会拿到固定的薪酬结构。这样你就不会被激励着去干那些最终会——
P2582:34:26
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
Sure
当然。
P2592:34:26
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
... leaving Berkshire on the hook.
——让 Berkshire 背锅兜底的事情。
P2602:34:27
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
Yeah. The investment discipline was.
是的。投资纪律——
P2612:34:29
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Yeah
是的。
P2622:34:29
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
was certainly a key, a key kind of theme that came through as well.
——无疑也是贯穿全场的另一个核心主题。
P2632:34:32
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Yeah.
是的。
P2642:34:32
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
That was one of those where I said, "I totally agree with that." I mean, they were, you know, kind of peers within the company.
那也是让我觉得“我完全赞同这一点”的地方之一。我是说,他们俩在公司内部作为同级搭档——
P2652:34:38
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Right
没错。
P2662:34:38
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
a pretty long period of time running.
——已经共事了相当长的一段时间,各自掌管着——
P2672:34:40
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Yeah
是的。
P2682:34:40
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
... separate parts of it.
——公司的不同板块。
P2692:34:41
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Yeah. It's just, it's nice to kind of hear more from them. Not that this is, like, some evolution that took place over the last five months.
是的。能听到他们多讲一些真的很好。这倒不是说过去五个月里发生了什么脱胎换骨的演变。
P2702:34:48
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
Yeah.
是的。
P2712:34:48
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
This is obviously something that was always there, but they're able to speak a little more plainly.
这显然是一直以来就存在的东西,只是他们现在能够表达得更直白一些——
P2722:34:53
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
Sure
当然。
P2732:34:53
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
openly probably than they did before.
——可能比以前更坦率了。
P2742:34:56
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
In the room, did people think that the Warren asking the question was for real? What was this?
在会场里,大家真的以为那个提问的 Warren 是真人吗?那是怎么回事?
P2752:35:03
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
No, I don't think so. You'd already seen him on the floor right in front of us.
不,我觉得大家不会当真。因为大家早就看到他本人正坐在我们面前的台下观众席里。
P2762:35:05
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
Yeah. Well, right.
是的,说的也是。
P2772:35:06
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
It was pretty clear that it was.
所以非常明显,那是——
P2782:35:06
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
that it was a straight video as opposed to an AI deepfake.
——那只是一段普通视频,还是说是一个 AI 深度伪造(deepfake)?
P2792:35:08
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Yeah, it was a deepfake.
是的,那是一个深度伪造(deepfake)视频。
P2802:35:09
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
Yeah.
是的。
P2812:35:10
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
I, and I'm glad Greg acknowledged that at the end.
而且我很高兴 Greg 在最后挑明了这一点。
P2822:35:12
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
Of course.
那是当然。
P2832:35:12
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
'Cause I was thinking, "Nobody thinks this is real, right?" Although there's probably a few people who might have.
因为我当时在想:“应该没人觉得这是真的吧?”不过要是不说明的话,可能还是会有少数几个人——
P2842:35:16
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
Right
没错。
P2852:35:16
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
... gotten fooled otherwise.
——被蒙骗过去。
P2862:35:17
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
Yeah.
是的。
P2872:35:18
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
I mean, that's an interesting question by itself, how good deep fakes are at this point.
我是说,光是目前深度伪造技术已经逼真到什么程度这一点,本身就是一个很有意思的问题。
P2882:35:22
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
Yes.
是的。
P2892:35:22
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
how you have to not, you know, it's no longer believe half of what you read and, or half of what you see and nothing of what you read.
你必须保持警惕,你知道,以前的老话是“读到的东西信一半”,或者“眼见的信一半,读到的全别信”。
P2902:35:29
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
Mm-hmm.
嗯。
P2912:35:30
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
It's now believe nothing of what you hear, read, or see.
现在变成了:你听到的、读到的或看到的,全都不要轻信。
P2922:35:34
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
Yeah.
是的。
P2932:35:34
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Yeah.
是的。
P2942:35:34
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
Exactly.
完全正确。
P2952:35:34
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Trust but verify, I guess.
我想,应该是“信任但要核实”吧——
P2962:35:35
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
Right
没错。
P2972:35:36
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
on everything.
——对任何事情都得这样。
P2982:35:36
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
Verify first.
先核实。
P2992:35:37
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Yeah.
是的。
P3002:35:37
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
Maybe trust later. Yeah.
以后再考虑信不信。是的。
P3012:35:39
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
All right. Berkshire is Occidental Petroleum's largest shareholder, and earlier this year it acquired OxyChem. That's a deal worth almost $10 billion. That is thanks in part to the relationship that was forged by CEO Vicki Hollub of Occidental. She now joins us live in Omaha. Vicki, first of all, welcome. It's great to see you.
好的。Berkshire 是 Occidental Petroleum(西方石油公司)的最大股东,今年早些时候它收购了 OxyChem。那是一笔价值接近 100 亿美元的交易。这在一定程度上要归功于 Occidental 的 CEO Vicki Hollub 所建立起的良好关系。她现在来到了奥马哈直播现场与我们交流。Vicki,首先欢迎你,很高兴见到你。
P3022:35:58
Vicki HollubPresident and CEO
Thank you. It's great to be here.
谢谢。很高兴来到这里。
P3032:35:59
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
The big news yesterday is that you announced that after 10 years as the CEO and 40 years with Occidental, that you're gonna be stepping down next month. That's some big news. What brought you to that decision?
昨天的大新闻是你宣布在担任 CEO 10 年、在 Occidental 工作 40 年之后,将于下个月卸任。这可是个大新闻。是什么促使你做出了这个决定?
P3042:36:12
Vicki HollubPresident and CEO
Well, the reality is that with an incredible leadership team and amazing employees and a strong board, we have over the past 10 years accomplished everything that we set out to do in 2016 when I took the role. What we've done is transformed our portfolio. We've taken it from a company that was 50% production in the Middle East with a lot of risk to now geopolitically much better, where 83% of our production is in the U.S. We've taken it from production of 650,000 barrels a day to 1.4 million barrels a day. We've doubled our resource, more than doubled. We've gone from 8 billion BOE of resource of oil and gas to 16.5 billion, and we've also been able to ensure that we had sustainability, a long runway.
嗯,实际情况是,凭借一支不可思议的领导团队、出色的员工以及强大的董事会,在过去 10 年里,我们已经完成了我在 2016 年接任这一职位时所设定的全部目标。我们所做的是彻底重塑了我们的资产组合:我们将公司从一家 50% 产量集中在中东、面临诸多风险的企业,转型为如今在地缘政治上安全得多的格局——目前我们 83% 的产量都在美国国内;我们将日产量从 65 万桶提升到了 140 万桶;我们将资源储量翻了一倍以上,油气资源储量从 80 亿桶油当量(BOE)增加到了 165 亿桶油当量;同时我们还确保了公司的可持续性和长远的发展跑道。
P3052:37:08
The portfolio's not just double, more than double, it's higher quality assets, so higher margin assets. Now we've got 30 years of runway in our portfolio, assuming activity at the current level. Now we're not gonna keep the current level. We will take advantage of accelerating this runway, this 16 and a half billion. We can accelerate that when the macro allows. What that's going to do, it's gonna be a massive value creator for Oxy. Now that we've done all that we needed to do to get the portfolio straightened out to get to where we are with the assets and the sustainability, now it's just a matter of developing it.
我们的资产组合不仅规模翻了一倍以上,而且是质量更高、从而利润率也更高的资产。如果按目前的开发活动水平计算,我们现在的资产组合拥有 30 年的开发跑道。不过我们不会一直维持目前的活动水平,当宏观环境允许时,我们会抓住机会加速开发这条跑道、开发这 165 亿(16.5 billion)桶油当量的资源。这将为 Oxy 创造巨大的价值。既然我们已经完成了理顺资产组合所需做的一切工作,在资产质量和可持续性上达到了如今的水平,那么接下来就只是去开发它的问题了。
P3062:37:52
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Yeah.
是的。
P3072:37:53
Vicki HollubPresident and CEO
Now we don't. We control our own destiny from that standpoint. We don't have to depend on M&A or any future contracts from anybody in the Middle East or in, anywhere internationally. We can decide when we want to develop it, at what pace. When we can, we're gonna develop it, and we're gonna develop it as quickly as we can, as long as it won't happen until we get that last debt payment down so that we're down to $10 billion in debt, principal debt. After that, we're free to take what the macro will give us, while also spending some of our capital, returning it back to the shareholders through share repurchases and dividend growth. We have the ability to grow organically, to then grow the dividend and to provide shares repurchases.
现在我们不再受制于人。从这个角度来看,我们掌握了自己的命运。我们不必依赖并购(M&A),也不必依赖来自中东或国际上任何地方的任何未来合同。我们可以自己决定什么时候开发、以什么节奏开发。当条件具备时,我们就会进行开发,而且会尽可能快地开发——不过前提是我们要先把最后一笔债务还清,把本金债务降到 100 亿美元。在那之后,我们就可以自由地把握宏观环境带来的机会,同时拿出部分资金,通过股票回购和股息增长回馈给股东。我们有能力实现内生增长,进而提高股息并进行股票回购。
P3082:38:45
I'm so excited about it too. The reason I'm stepping down is we have for a long time had a great succession planning process in place. While I've had the support of it, as I said, an amazing leadership team, so we were able to accomplish all of this, while building the culture and increasing our technical capabilities. We did all that. We've checked all those boxes, but now we looked at our top successor and what we need to do now in the next 10 years, we felt like he's better, he's gonna be better at doing that than I would've done.
我对此也感到非常兴奋。我之所以卸任,是因为我们长期以来一直有一套非常完善的继任规划流程。正如我所说,在出色领导团队的支持下,我们得以在建设企业文化、提升技术能力的同时完成了上述所有目标。我们做到了这一切,完成了所有既定任务。但现在,当我们审视我们的头号继任人选以及未来 10 年我们需要做的事情时,我们觉得他在这方面会比我做得更好。
P3092:39:23
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Well, what's the goal for the next 10 years?
那么,未来 10 年的目标是什么?
P3102:39:24
Vicki HollubPresident and CEO
Next 10 years is this organic growth.
未来 10 年就是实现这种内生增长。
P3112:39:26
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Yeah. Okay.
是的,明白了。
P3122:39:27
Vicki HollubPresident and CEO
That's gonna drive our stock price up, I think, tremendously over the next 3-5 years.
我认为这将在未来 3-5 年内极大地推动我们的股价上涨。
P3132:39:34
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
You said, when the macro allows and take what the macro will give us, that's, you know, kind of a significant when and if, I suppose. What does that look like when things clear up?
你刚才说“当宏观环境允许时”以及“把握宏观环境带来的机会”,我想这是一个相当关键的时间点和前提条件。当局势明朗时,那会是什么样子?
P3142:39:44
Vicki HollubPresident and CEO
I'll point out one other thing. While we're gonna take what the macro gives us with the growth, what we're doing now is creating incremental free cash flow.
我还想指出另一点。虽然在增长方面我们会根据宏观环境相机而动,但我们现在正在做的是创造增量自由现金流——
P3152:39:57
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
Mm-hmm
嗯。
P3162:39:57
Vicki HollubPresident and CEO
... by just reducing our cost and increasing our efficiencies. I think that we have the lowest capital intensity of anybody in our industry, and part of that's what Richard Jackson has been driving and to get us to that level. Now with respect to what the macro's gonna give us, I think that this disruption in the world with respect to oil, I think that's gonna have a hangover effect. That's gonna carry on. That's gonna, I think, cause shortages. Probably starting by mid next year, we're gonna be in a scenario where there's gonna be a lot of places that need to start developing oil faster.
——仅仅通过降低成本和提高效率就能做到。我认为我们的资本密集度是整个行业里最低的,这在很大程度上要归功于 Richard Jackson 一直在推动的工作,是他带领我们达到了这一水平。至于宏观环境会给我们带来什么,我认为当前全球石油领域的这种动荡将会产生后遗症,这种影响会持续下去,而且我认为会导致供应短缺。大概从明年年中开始,我们就会面临这样一种局面:许多地方都需要开始加快石油开发速度。
P3172:40:35
Because of our lower breakeven cost than anybody else, we should be one of the ones that are first to the gate to start that process, because we have a breakeven of lower than $40.
由于我们的盈亏平衡成本比任何其他公司都低,我们应该会成为第一批率先启动这一开发进程的公司之一,因为我们的盈亏平衡点低于 40 美元。
P3182:40:46
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
If you think that there's going to be this shortage kind of in the middle of next year, where do you think oil prices are going to be as a result?
如果你认为明年年中左右会出现这种供应短缺,那么你认为届时油价会处于什么水平?
P3192:40:53
Vicki HollubPresident and CEO
I think oil prices are a bit suppressed now because of what's coming out of all the strategic petroleum reserves around the world.
我认为目前的油价受到了一些压制,原因是世界各地都在释放战略石油储备。
P3202:40:59
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Mm-hmm.
嗯。
P3212:41:00
Vicki HollubPresident and CEO
I believe that by midsummer this year.
我相信到今年仲夏时节——
P3222:41:03
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
This year. Yeah
今年。是的。
P3232:41:03
Vicki HollubPresident and CEO
we're gonna start seeing that prices, without some growth starting to happen, will start to go up. I think that, you know, by the time that we're ready to start our growth, and again, that would be when we get to the $10 billion, that would be later this year, 1st of next year. We'll be a part of that process to help build back the supply of oil for the world.
——如果供应没有开始出现一定增长的话,我们就会开始看到油价企稳回升。我认为,等到我们准备好启动增长时——同样,那将是在我们的债务降到 100 亿美元的时候,也就是今年晚些时候或明年 1 月初——我们将参与到这一进程中,帮助全球重建石油供应。
P3242:41:28
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
You're undergoing a CEO transition the same time Berkshire Hathaway is. What's your, I guess the relationship with Greg, and has he bought into the plan from here on out? Obviously they're a very large shareholder.
你们正在经历 CEO 交接,而与此同时 Berkshire Hathaway 也在进行交接。你和 Greg 的关系如何?他是否认可你们接下来的这项计划?显然他们是非常大的股东。
P3252:41:39
Vicki HollubPresident and CEO
Yes. We do with Greg what we do with our other large shareholders or our team does with any shareholders. We want our shareholders to understand what we're doing, how we're doing it. Greg has been involved in a part of the process of understanding what the business is gonna look like. I think Greg is amazing. He's the OxyChem deal now. He's a tough negotiator.
是的。我们对 Greg 的做法,与我们对其他大股东、或者我们团队对任何股东的做法是一样的:我们希望股东了解我们在做什么、以及是怎么做的。Greg 一直参与其中,了解这项业务未来的发展面貌。我认为 Greg 非常了不起。现在他主导了 OxyChem 的交易。他是一位强硬的谈判对手。
P3262:42:07
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Yeah.
是的。
P3272:42:07
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
Yeah.
是的。
P3282:42:07
Vicki HollubPresident and CEO
He's honest and he's fair, and so we've built a great relationship.
但他为人诚实且公平,所以我们建立了非常好的关系。
P3292:42:13
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Explain that. Tough negotiator as in what? The OxyChem deal or other stuff that was going on?
展开讲讲吧。“强硬的谈判对手”具体指什么?是指 OxyChem 的交易,还是当时进行的其他事情?
P3302:42:18
Vicki HollubPresident and CEO
only OxyChem deal that was going on.
只是指当时进行的 OxyChem 交易。
P3312:42:21
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Okay.
好的。
P3322:42:21
Vicki HollubPresident and CEO
Let me clarify.
让我澄清一下。
P3332:42:21
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Yeah.
是的。
P3342:42:22
Vicki HollubPresident and CEO
On the OxyChem deal, he is into the details, and he doesn't forget. That's why he could sit there and talk about all those businesses.
在 OxyChem 这笔交易上,他非常深入细节,而且过目不忘。这就是为什么他能坐在台上对所有那些业务娓娓道来。
P3352:42:31
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Yeah.
是的。
P3362:42:31
Vicki HollubPresident and CEO
He knows those businesses like the back of his hand, now he knows OxyChem in the same way. We had great discussions around it. That turned out to be an incredibly good win-win for us and for them because that debt reduction we were able to accomplish with that frees us up so that just right now we're at $13.8 billion in debt principal. I believe that by the end of this year, first of next year, we'll be down to the $10 billion. That resets everything that we can do. That finalizes the transformation for us, then we're off and running.
他对那些业务了如指掌,现在他对 OxyChem 也是如此。我们围绕这笔交易进行了非常深入的讨论。结果证明,这对我们和他们来说都是一笔极好的双赢交易,因为我们借此实现的债务削减让我们得以腾出手来——就在眼下,我们的债务本金已经降到了 138 亿美元。我相信到今年年底、明年年初,我们就能降到 100 亿美元。这将重置我们所能做的一切,为我们完成转型的最后一步,然后我们就可以大步向前了。
P3372:43:07
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Great.
太好了。
P3382:43:07
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
All right.
好的。
P3392:43:08
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Vicki, thank you very much for being with us today. Vicki Hollub, it's a pleasure seeing you.
Vicki,非常感谢你今天做客我们的节目。Vicki Hollub,很高兴见到你。
P3402:43:13
Vicki HollubPresident and CEO
Thank you.
谢谢。
P3412:43:13
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Thanks for talking to us about the succession planning, and congratulations.
感谢你和我们分享继任规划的情况,也祝贺你。
P3422:43:17
Vicki HollubPresident and CEO
Thank you. Appreciate it.
谢谢,非常感谢。
P3432:43:18
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
Thanks a lot.
多谢。
P3442:43:19
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Yeah.
是的。
P3452:43:19
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
All right. Well, Berkshire Hathaway's almost 70 holding companies give it a unique view in onto the economy and the consumer. We caught up with some of the company's CEOs here on the floor to talk about just how the consumer is faring right now.
好的。Berkshire Hathaway 旗下近 70 家控股子公司为它观察经济和消费者提供了独特的视角。我们在现场采访了几位子公司的 CEO,聊聊当前消费者的真实状况。
P3462:43:33
Dan CalkinsChairman and CEO
I certainly have to acknowledge that the consumer attitude is a little bit different. I watch the University of Michigan numbers very closely.
我确实必须承认,消费者的态度发生了一点变化。我非常密切地关注密歇根大学(University of Michigan)的消费者信心指数。
P3472:43:38
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Yeah.
是的。
P3482:43:39
Dan CalkinsChairman and CEO
I know exactly where it is, and what I know is our numbers are up for the year, and I'm very thankful for that because I also know the confection industry fairly well, and I don't know that others can say quite that.
我非常清楚那个指数目前的水平,而我知道的是,我们今年的业绩数字是上升的,我对此非常感恩,因为我也相当了解糖果行业,我知道其他同行恐怕很难说出这样的话。
P3492:43:48
It's definitely a headwind for Benjamin Moore. Number one driver is housing churn at Benjamin Moore, and with affordability issues, mortgage rate issues, and confidence, it's been a strain. There's no doubt about it.
这对 Benjamin Moore 来说无疑是一股逆风。Benjamin Moore 的头号驱动力是房屋换手率,而由于住房负担能力问题、抵押贷款利率问题以及消费者信心问题,这一直构成压力,这一点毫无疑问。
P3502:43:58
Yeah, we've probably seen, you know, a little bit of a change in our trends over the last month or so.
是的,在过去一个月左右的时间里,我们可能看到趋势发生了一点变化。
P3512:44:04
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Mm-hmm.
嗯。
P3522:44:04
Dan CalkinsChairman and CEO
You know, there's a lot of factors influencing the consumer, so sometimes it's a little bit hard to tell, you know, what factors those are.
你知道,有很多因素在影响消费者,所以有时候很难确切分辨出到底是哪些因素在起作用。
P3532:44:12
When we think about the consumer, it really, you end up in 2 tiers right now. If you are affluent and you are looking at your retirement accounts, the market's doing really well.
当我们审视消费者时,目前实际上分化成了 2 个层级。如果你比较富裕,看看自己的退休账户,现在的股市表现非常好。
P3542:44:21
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Yeah.
是的。
P3552:44:21
Dan CalkinsChairman and CEO
Those consumers are looking for new experiences. However, if you're in the lower income demographic, right now when you think about persistent inflation, interest rates that are still relatively high, not by historical averages, but for recent years, these consumers are pressed. They're trying to manage strained family budgets.
这部分消费者正在寻找新的体验。然而,如果你属于低收入群体,考虑到持续的通胀,以及仍然相对较高的利率——虽然按历史平均水平来看算不上高,但相比近些年来说还是很高——这些消费者正承受着压力,他们正在努力维持吃紧的家庭预算。
P3562:44:43
I think that what we're trying to do at the end of the day is just be mindful of that we do have a consumer base that is ultimately forced to spend more money on certain other things that they may have been had more money in their wallet before. Gas prices are obviously rising.
我认为归根结底,我们所要做的就是时刻留意:我们的消费群体原本钱包里可能有更多余钱,但现在最终被迫把更多钱花在了某些其他必需品上。汽油价格显然正在上涨。
P3572:44:58
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
Let's get my mic to your camera. Let's hear from one more Berkshire CEO on the consumer. Dan Sheridan, CEO of Brooks Running, is right here with us. Good to see you, Dan.
把我的麦克风对准你的镜头。让我们再听听另一位 Berkshire 子公司 CEO 对消费者的看法。Brooks Running 的 CEO Dan Sheridan 就在我们身边。很高兴见到你,Dan。
P3582:45:08
Dan SheridanCEO
Thanks for having me.
谢谢你们邀请我。
P3592:45:09
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
In general, been a pretty competitive environment for a while for running shoes and things like that. You did report your results, a pretty decent growth. What are you seeing broadly speaking-
总体而言,跑鞋之类行业的竞争环境在相当长一段时间里一直相当激烈。你们公布了业绩,取得了相当可观的增长。从广义上讲,你在——
P3602:45:18
Dan SheridanCEO
Yeah, well-
是的,嗯——
P3612:45:19
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
among your customers?
——你们的客户群体中看到了什么?
P3622:45:19
Dan SheridanCEO
Q1 was fantastic for us. Grew 23% globally. A very broad growth story for us. All regions growing double-digit. Our core market's really strong. We're seeing the consumer be very durable and strong right now. We're excited about the future for our growth, and obviously for the category we're competing in.
第一季度对我们来说棒极了,全球同比增长了 23%。我们的增长面非常广,所有地区都实现了双位数增长,我们的核心市场表现非常强劲。我们看到目前的消费者非常有韧性且消费力强劲。我们对未来的增长以及我们所竞争的这一品类感到非常振奋。
P3632:45:42
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
What do you attribute that strength to? I mean, I guess you can say the category. It strikes me that while we talk about a lot of the relatively newer entrants into running shoes in particular, there's also such a focus on the technology.
你把这种强劲表现归因于什么?我是说,你当然可以归因于这个品类本身。但让我印象深刻的是,虽然我们经常谈论许多相对较新进入跑鞋领域的品牌,但大家同时也非常关注技术——
P3642:45:54
Dan SheridanCEO
Yeah
是的。
P3652:45:54
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
and on, like, the new thing.
——关注新事物——
P3662:45:55
Dan SheridanCEO
Yeah
是的。
P3672:45:55
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
How it can help performance.
——关注它如何帮助提升运动表现。
P3682:45:57
Dan SheridanCEO
Yeah. Well, the first thing we always track is participation, and participation in health and wellness, specifically in run and walk, is at an all-time high. We think there's 52 million runners in the U.S. that run twice a week. Globally, we think that's up to 600 million. That's the foundation of our business. On top of that is performance matters in people's lives. The last couple weeks in the marathon.
是的。嗯,我们首先追踪的指标始终是参与度,而目前人们对健康与保健——特别是跑步和健走——的参与度正处于历史最高水平。我们认为美国有 5200 万每周跑两次步的跑者;在全球范围内,我们认为这个数字高达 6 亿。这就是我们业务的基石。在此之上,运动表现对人们的生活至关重要。在过去几周的马拉松赛事中——
P3692:46:21
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
Yeah
是的。
P3702:46:21
Dan SheridanCEO
we've seen epic athletic achievement and per-
——我们见证了史诗级的运动成就和表现——
P3712:46:25
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Under 2 hours.
跑进了 2 小时以内。
P3722:46:26
Dan SheridanCEO
... under 2 hours.
……跑进了 2 小时以内。
P3732:46:26
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Under two hours.
两小时以内。
P3742:46:26
Dan SheridanCEO
So-
所以——
P3752:46:26
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Yeah
是的。
P3762:46:27
Dan SheridanCEO
... what a great spotlight for our sport, and that's driving interest as well. The general theme of health and wellness around the world, though, is a one-way street, we think, and more people than ever are running, walking, and staying healthy.
——这对我们的运动项目来说是多么耀眼的聚光灯啊,这也带动了人们的兴趣。不过,我们认为全球范围内的健康与保健大趋势是一条单行道(不可逆转),现在跑步、健走和保持健康的人比以往任何时候都多。
P3772:46:40
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
There was a big deal about the under 2 hours, though. That under 2-hour marathon was wearing, what was it, Adidas shoes?
不过,跑进 2 小时以内确实是一件大事。那场跑进 2 小时以内的马拉松穿的是什么鞋来着,是 Adidas 的鞋吗?
P3782:46:46
Dan SheridanCEO
Yeah.
是的。
P3792:46:46
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
That was a big deal because Nike had been talking about that for so long, obviously. You guys are shooting towards that, and I know you're hitting records in other places. How important is that specific mile marker, and how do you compete for that? How do you go after that?
那之所以是一件大事,是因为显然 Nike 已经为此宣传了很久。你们也在朝着那个方向努力,而且我知道你们在其他地方也打破了纪录。那个特定的里程碑有多重要?你们如何为此展开竞争?你们打算如何去攻克它?
P3802:46:59
Dan SheridanCEO
Yeah. Well, first off, epic athletic achievement, good for our sport. Running is at the center of everybody talking about it. We sit right in the middle of that with innovation, Becky, and we were talking off-air about this.
是的。首先,那是史诗级的运动成就,对我们这项运动大有裨益,让跑步成为了所有人谈论的焦点。Becky,我们凭借创新正处在这一焦点的中心,刚才我们在台下也聊到了这一点。
P3812:47:13
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Yeah.
是的。
P3822:47:13
Dan SheridanCEO
The shoe matters for the athletes. We have always been a company on innovation and R&D for our athletes and everybody that moves. That's why we have the number one market share here in the U.S. in run. We just became the number one brand in Germany, too. Highly technical markets, our products and brand is right in the center of that. We love it when there's epic athletic achievement like that.
跑鞋对运动员来说至关重要。我们一直以来都是一家致力于为运动员和每一个热爱运动的人进行创新和研发(R&D)的公司。这就是为什么我们在美国跑步市场占据第一的市场份额,而且我们刚刚在德国也成为了第一大品牌。在这些对技术要求极高的市场中,我们的产品和品牌正处于核心位置。每当出现那样史诗级的运动成就时,我们都由衷地感到高兴。
P3832:47:38
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Yeah.
是的。
P3842:47:38
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
You have, kind of a new sub-CEO running your group.
你们所在的业务集团迎来了一位新的分管 CEO——
P3852:47:41
Dan SheridanCEO
Yeah
是的。
P3862:47:41
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
... the consumer products and services area of Berkshire Hathaway, Adam Johnson. What does that mean for you at this point?
——也就是负责 Berkshire Hathaway 消费品与服务板块的 Adam Johnson。目前这对你来说意味着什么?
P3872:47:47
Dan SheridanCEO
Yeah. Well, new, obviously, for us, and what I've been talking about this week is just the consistency of leadership at Berkshire. We've seen it with Greg over the years, but now we're seeing it with Adam, and I couldn't be more excited to have more interaction with Adam and start to learn from him. Consistency, this deserved trust, empowerment that has the bedrock of Berkshire culture is still the same things that I'm feeling from Adam and from Greg.
是的。嗯,对我们来说这显然是一个新变化,而这周我一直在谈论的就是 Berkshire 领导层的一贯性。过去这么多年我们在 Greg 身上看到了这种一贯性,现在我们在 Adam 身上也看到了同样的特质,能与 Adam 有更多交流并开始向他学习,我感到无比振奋。一贯性、基于实绩的信任(deserved trust)、以及充分授权——这些构成 Berkshire 文化基石的东西,依然是我从 Adam 和 Greg 身上感受到的同样特质。
P3882:48:15
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
You know, Dan, we were just talking about whether there are kind of ways to cooperate with other Berkshire businesses. I don't know, Brooks is such a unique company. I don't know if that's the case, but you tell me. Are there? You're here with the managers. I think everybody had lunch yesterday. I'm sure you're talking to-
你知道,Dan,我们刚才还在讨论 Berkshire 旗下各业务之间是否有某种合作的方式。我不知道,Brooks 是一家如此独特的公司,我不确定情况是否如此,但你来告诉我们吧,有这种合作吗?你这次来和各位经理人聚在一起,我想大家昨天还一起吃了午饭,我肯定你们平时也一直在和——
P3892:48:33
Dan SheridanCEO
Yeah
是的。
P3902:48:33
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
all of your colleagues all the time on this. What do you learn from each other, and are there ways that you can work together?
——所有同事交流这件事。你们彼此之间学到了什么?有没有什么可以携手合作的方式?
P3912:48:39
Dan SheridanCEO
Yeah. I think this weekend is a moment for us to network as peers, and the lunch is one way, but what I try and do is spend time one-on-one with some of my peers to suck all the information I can and experience from them. This is a moment where we get to network, and those networks, you know, last throughout the year. It's more one-on-one networking than in groups, and we've been fortunate to do that this weekend.
是的。我认为这个周末是我们作为同侪建立人脉网络的时刻,聚餐是一种方式,但我努力做的是与一些同侪进行一对一的交流,尽可能从他们身上汲取所有的信息和经验。这是一个我们得以建立联系的时刻,而且这种人脉网络会延续一整年。相比群体聚会,更多的是一对一的交流,我们很幸运在这个周末做到了这一点。
P3922:49:07
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
Is it about requesting further resources, or requesting the freedom to do more of your own thing, or any of those things?
这种交流是为了申请更多资源,还是为了争取更多按自己想法行事的自由,或者诸如此类的事情?
P3932:49:14
Dan SheridanCEO
Yeah. There's not one way. This is the best part about Berkshire's empowerment and decentralization. I think all of us independently operate, but there's access to be able to share ideas and solve different problems. We are solving very different businesses here, but there's some common themes in the macroeconomic environment, in geopolitical ways. We do find times to connect and share what we're all dealing with.
是的,并没有固定的模式。这正是 Berkshire 充分授权和分权自治最棒的地方。我认为我们所有人都独立运营,但同时又有渠道可以分享想法、解决不同的问题。我们在这里经营着截然不同的业务,但在宏观经济环境和地缘政治方面面临着一些共同的主题。我们确实会找时间建立联系,分享各自正在应对的问题。
P3942:49:41
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
That's great.
那太棒了。
P3952:49:42
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
I was going to say, what's the kind of frontier in terms of your technology, innovation? Like, what's next? How tightly are you trying to squeeze out little bits of performance?
我刚才还想问,在你们的技术和创新方面,目前的前沿是什么?比如说,下一步是什么?你们在多大程度上努力从鞋子里压榨出哪怕一丁点儿的性能提升?
P3962:49:53
Dan SheridanCEO
Yeah. Sounds like you're on it, Mike. I mean, this is the game. Innovation in our space is just ramping, both in terms of how fast innovation is coming for runners. Midsole compounds and weight in running right now is really the arms race.
是的,听起来你很懂行,Mike。我是说,这就是核心竞争所在。我们这个领域的创新正在加速,无论是创新技术推向跑者的速度,还是目前跑步领域真正堪称“军备竞赛”的中底材料配方(midsole compounds)与重量控制。
P3972:50:09
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
Mm-hmm.
嗯。
P3982:50:09
Dan SheridanCEO
We've got great midsole compounds that are reducing weight, still giving the runner cushioning and resiliency and rebound. All of us in this category are in this arms race to create performance products that improve people's lives, which Brooks has done for 25 years. 25 years now, we're on a 14% compounded annual growth rate.
我们拥有出色的中底材料配方,在减轻重量的同时,依然能为跑者提供缓震、韧性和回弹。我们这个品类里的所有品牌都在参与这场军备竞赛,努力打造能够改善人们生活的性能产品,而 Brooks 已经这样做了 25 年。这 25 年来,我们实现了 14% 的复合年均增长率。
P3992:50:35
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Wow
哇。
P4002:50:35
Dan SheridanCEO
growth over that time based in product.
那段时间里以产品为基础的增长。
P4012:50:37
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
An arms race for the foot race.
一场为了赛跑而展开的军备竞赛。
P4022:50:39
Dan SheridanCEO
That's right.
没错。
P4032:50:40
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
Dan, good to talk to you. Thank you very much.
Dan,很高兴和你交谈。非常感谢。
P4042:50:42
Dan SheridanCEO
Thanks for having me.
感谢邀请我。
P4052:50:43
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
Dan Sheridan, CEO of Brooks Running. Let's get down to the floor here in Omaha. CNBC Producer Katie Kramer is at the Oriental Trading Company's booth. Katie, what are this year's hot items?
以上是 Brooks Running 首席执行官 Dan Sheridan。让我们把视线转向奥马哈的展厅现场。CNBC 制片人 Katie Kramer 正在 Oriental Trading Company 的展位。Katie,今年有哪些热门商品?
P4062:50:55
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
I get the best assignment every year, Mike. I get to check out what shareholders are shopping for on the exhibit hall floor. This year, Greg Abel is a new character in so many different branded items. We've got Squishmallows. We have got candy. We've got spatulas from Pampered Chef, and collectible ducks from Oriental Trading. This year, Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger, and Greg Abel available as rubber ducks, and Oriental Trading's CEO Steve Mendlik is here. How fast are these selling?
Mike,我每年都分到最好的差事。我可以去展厅现场看看股东们都在采购些什么。今年,Greg Abel 成了许多不同品牌商品里的新角色。我们有 Squishmallows 毛绒玩偶,有糖果,有来自 Pampered Chef 的锅铲,还有来自 Oriental Trading 的收藏版小鸭子。今年,Warren Buffett、Charlie Munger 和 Greg Abel 都有橡皮鸭造型,Oriental Trading 的首席执行官 Steve Mendlik 就在现场。这些卖得有多快?
P4072:51:25
Subsidiary ExecutiveExecutive
Yeah. They're selling like hotcakes. Warren obviously is still a feature for us, but Greg has reached icon status this year. He's on the Mount Rushmore with Charlie and Warren here. We're selling a lot of them.
是的,它们卖得极其火爆。Warren 显然仍然是我们的主打特色,但 Greg 今年已经达到了偶像级地位。在这里他和 Charlie、Warren 一起登上了总统山。我们卖出了很多。
P4082:51:42
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
They're hot.
非常抢手。
P4092:51:42
Intermission CommentatorCommentator, CNBC
How many? Like 1,000 I heard.
卖了多少只?我听说好像有 1,000 只。
P4102:51:44
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
Yeah, we're over 1,000 ducks sold so far.
是的,目前我们已经卖出了超过 1,000 只小鸭子。
P4112:51:47
Intermission CommentatorCommentator, CNBC
The-
这——
P4122:51:48
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
They're rolling. Our top seller.
它们还在源源不断地卖出,是我们的最畅销单品。
P4132:51:50
Intermission CommentatorCommentator, CNBC
This is the liveliest that the floor has been, I think, through the shareholders meeting. We've got crowds of people here around. We've got Flo, the Oriental Trading flamingo. We've got tons of materials that people are taking home to share, to enjoy their experience here in Omaha. Are you gonna sell out of the ducks, do you think?
我觉得这是整个股东大会期间展厅最热闹的时候。周围挤满了人群。这里有 Oriental Trading 的火烈鸟吉祥物 Flo。还有成堆的商品和资料,大家正把它们带回家分享,尽情享受在奥马哈的这段体验。你觉得这些小鸭子会卖光吗?
P4142:52:06
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
You better hurry. If you're in the building, you better hurry.
你们最好抓紧了。如果你在场馆里,最好赶快过来。
P4152:52:11
Intermission CommentatorCommentator, CNBC
Supplies are limited, very much. You've also got Squishmallows that have got Greg Abel's face on them this year. You've got some collaborative items with BNSF, with NetJets, with See's Candies. See's Candies has got 11 tons of chocolate over there. This is the moment when shareholders really empty their wallets and fill their luggage for all the great stuff they're taking home with them.
库存非常有限。今年你们还有印着 Greg Abel 头像的 Squishmallows 玩偶。还有一些与 BNSF、NetJets 以及 See's Candies 推出的联名商品。See's Candies 在那边准备了 11 吨巧克力。这一刻,股东们真的是掏空钱包、塞满行李箱,把所有这些好东西都带回家。
P4162:52:37
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Excellent. Katie, thank you very much. Looks like there's a lot of activity back there, too. Right now we're joined by a longtime shareholder of Berkshire, former Activision Blizzard CEO Bobby Kotick, who has been coming to this meeting for how many years? I ask you this every year. It is more than 30, right?
太棒了。Katie,非常感谢你。看起来你身后的展区也十分热闹。现在坐在我们身边的是 Berkshire 的长期股东、前 Activision Blizzard 首席执行官 Bobby Kotick。你来参加这个大会有多少年了?我每年都问你这个问题。超过 30 年了,对吧?
P4172:52:53
Chris DavisChairman
More than 30 years.
超过 30 年了。
P4182:52:54
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
More than 30 years you've been here. Bobby, I just wanna ask you, as a long-term shareholder, as a long-term Berkshire follower, what did you think of the meeting so far? What was it like sitting out there?
你已经来这里超过 30 年了。Bobby,我只想问问你,作为一名长期股东和长期的 Berkshire 追随者,到目前为止你对今天的大会怎么看?坐在台下听会是什么感受?
P4192:53:06
Chris DavisChairman
It was fantastic. I have to say, Greg handled himself fantastically well. I think Ajit adds a great dimension to the stage. Warren's presence, especially his AI presence, added special value, and I think the business is in terrific shape. If you were to think about this company and its current market value, if you were to revalue the equity portfolio to, let's say, the historic mean of the S&P's, say, 17 times.
非常精彩。我得说,Greg 的表现棒极了。我认为 Ajit 为舞台增添了极佳的维度。Warren 的出席,尤其是他以 AI 形象的出场,增添了特殊的价值,而且我认为公司业务目前处于极佳的状态。如果你审视这家公司及其目前的市值,假设你把它的股票投资组合重新估值到——比方说 S&P 的历史均值,比如 17 倍。
P4202:53:43
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Yeah.
是的。
P4212:53:44
Chris DavisChairman
That's maybe about $70 or $80 billion of risk. The operating businesses trade way below 17 times, probably closer to 10 times. There's a lot of upside in Berkshire.
那大概也就是 700 亿或 800 亿美元左右的风险敞口。而它的运营业务目前的交易估值远低于 17 倍,可能更接近 10 倍。Berkshire 还有很大的上涨空间。
P4222:53:56
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Well, you know, that's been a question that has come up. We haven't gotten a chance to ask either of them on stage yet, Berkshire has underperformed the S&P 500 pretty significantly over the last year. S&P's been up by about 29%. I think Berkshire's down maybe 12% over that same period. Maybe a little less. Maybe it's 9%.
嗯,你知道,这一直是大家提出的一个问题。我们还没机会在台上问他们二位,在过去一年里,Berkshire 的表现明显落后于 S&P 500 指数。S&P 大约上涨了 29%。我想 Berkshire 在同一时期大概下跌了 12%。也许稍微少一点,也许是 9%。
P4232:54:12
Chris DavisChairman
9%.
9%。
P4242:54:12
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Yeah, over that period of time. When you look at that, what does that tell you, as a shareholder yourself, what do you wanna see? What do you think of it all?
对,在那段时间里。当你看到这一表现时,这向你传递了什么信息?作为一名股东,你自己希望看到什么?你对这一切怎么看?
P4252:54:21
Chris DavisChairman
I think it was one of the first slides. They're buying stock.
我想那是在最开始的几张幻灯片里。他们正在回购股票。
P4262:54:26
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Maybe not as much as people anticipated.
也许没有人们预期的那么多。
P4272:54:28
Chris DavisChairman
I think we saw it today. You know, there was a substantial amount of stock purchased, and we're sitting on $400 billion of cash.
我想我们今天已经看到了。你知道,他们买入了相当数量的股票,而且我们还坐拥 4,000 亿美元的现金。
P4282:54:37
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Yeah.
是的。
P4292:54:37
Chris DavisChairman
I see nothing but opportunity. I, you know, I like to buy when they like to buy.
我看到的只有机会。你知道,我喜欢在他们愿意买入的时候跟着买入。
P4302:54:43
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Are you buying back shares? Are you buying more shares of Berkshire?
你在买股票吗?你在增持 Berkshire 的股票吗?
P4312:54:47
Chris DavisChairman
rather not say, but I think, You know, I like to buy when they're buying.
我宁愿不透露,但我认为,你知道,我喜欢在他们买入的时候买入。
P4322:54:54
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Okay.
好的。
P4332:54:54
Chris DavisChairman
I think that was a vote of confidence.
我认为那是一张信任票。
P4342:54:56
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Okay.
好的。
P4352:54:57
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
I did find it interesting, first of all, Greg was at pains to say that it wasn't quite as much cash as is portrayed in the 10-Q filing.
我确实觉得很有意思,首先,Greg 特意煞费苦心地解释说,实际现金并没有 10-Q 季报文件中所呈现的那么多。
P4362:55:04
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Right, because like-
对,因为比如——
P4372:55:04
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
$397 million.
3.97 亿美元。
P4382:55:05
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
... the $70 billion that they still have on-
……他们账上还挂着的那 700 亿美元——
P4392:55:08
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
Because of the timing of a T-bill purchase-
因为一笔短期国债购买的时间节点问题——
P4402:55:09
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Right
对。
P4412:55:09
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
That hadn't settled yet.
那笔交易当时还没有完成交割结算。
P4422:55:10
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Right.
没错。
P4432:55:10
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
There's some double counting. Fine, $380 billion.
存在一些重复计算。好吧,就算是 3,800 亿美元。
P4442:55:13
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Right.
没错。
P4452:55:14
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
It seems as if some of the things that Greg said were meant to kind of put the investment portfolio a bit off to the side, right? He emphasizes the four very large core holdings, which are kind of there forever, as well as the Japanese businesses. The rest of it, he sort of says, "Well, it's not really that big and it's not all that actively managed." Does that say to you that he's mostly focusing his energies and attention on just the operating businesses and what else in terms of bolt-on acquisitions he can do as opposed to the portfolio?
看起来 Greg 所说的一些话似乎是有意把投资组合稍微放到一边,对吧?他强调了那四家规模极大的核心持仓——它们基本上会永远留在那里——以及日本的那些企业。至于其余部分,他的意思差不多是:“嗯,规模其实没那么大,而且也不是那么频繁地主动管理。”这是否让你觉得,相比于股票投资组合,他主要把精力和注意力集中在运营业务以及他能做的补强型收购(bolt-on acquisitions)上?
P4462:55:45
Chris DavisChairman
No, I don't think so.
不,我不这么认为。
P4472:55:46
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
No.
不这么认为。
P4482:55:46
Chris DavisChairman
I think he's very, he's very engaged with Warren on those discussions. I think he's thinking a lot about the investment portfolio. I think if you look at Apple and Coke in particular, they're both going through CEO transitions.
我认为他在那些讨论中与 Warren 保持着非常、非常密切的参与。我认为他对投资组合思考了很多。我觉得如果你具体看看 Apple 和 Coke,它们都在经历首席执行官的交接过渡。
P4492:56:01
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
Yeah.
是的。
P4502:56:01
Chris DavisChairman
They're being managed with excellence, and I think inspired a lot by the Berkshire transition. In fact, I talked to Tim Cook last night, and that was the first thing he said is he wants to be recognized as the person who's managed succession better than anyone. I said, "Well, you've got a tough, a tough comparison.
它们都被管理得非常出色,而且我认为在很大程度上受到了 Berkshire 交接过渡的启发。事实上,我昨晚和 Tim Cook 聊过,他说的第一件事就是,他希望自己被公认为把继任交接管理得比任何人都好的人。我说:“嗯,你面临着一个非常、非常强劲的比较对象。”
P4512:56:20
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
On both ends, right?
两头都是,对吧?
P4522:56:21
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Both ends.
两头都是。
P4532:56:21
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
When he took over for Jobs, and now he's handing it off again, Cook.
当年他从 Jobs 手中接棒,而现在 Cook 又要把接力棒交出去。
P4542:56:25
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Yeah, with Greg, too.
是的,还有和 Greg 的对比。
P4552:56:26
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
I was joking that, you know, Warren was polite enough not to say, "Why are you retiring at 65?
我还开玩笑说,你知道,Warren 足够有礼貌,才没有问:“你为什么在 65 岁就要退休?”
P4562:56:31
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Right.
没错。
P4572:56:31
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
You got 30 more good years left, you know?
“你明明还有 30 年的好时光可以干,你知道吧?”
P4582:56:34
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Right. Bobby, I wanna talk to you that, about that. As a former CEO yourself and somebody who knows, the stresses that come with that and the huge responsibilities with that, we've seen a lot of executive turnover of some very long-term, well-known names, big companies. You mentioned Coca-Cola, where you were a board member before, too. Tim Cook with Apple. You've also got, Bob Iger turning over. There's, Vicki Hollub was just sitting here. Doug McMillon stepped down. There's just this long, this big number of relatively young people in a lot of cases. Doug McMillon was, what, 60? James Quincey's 60 years old, too.
没错。Bobby,我想和你聊聊这个话题。你自己也曾担任过首席执行官,深知随之而来的压力和巨大的责任,我们最近看到许多任期很长、非常知名的商界人物和大公司高管纷纷卸任交班。你提到了 Coca-Cola,你以前也担任过那里的董事会成员。还有 Apple 的 Tim Cook。此外还有 Bob Iger 的交班。刚才还坐在这里的 Vicki Hollub。Doug McMillon 也卸任了。有一大串这样的人,而且在很多情况下他们都还相对年轻。Doug McMillon 才多少岁,60 岁?James Quincey 也是 60 岁。
P4592:57:13
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
Yeah, he was young.
是的,他很年轻。
P4602:57:14
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
You're talking about people who are young, and some of them when they've sat down with me have said, "Look, it's really tough to think of what AI is going to do, and that's gonna be a 5-year transition. How do you think that through?" Is that what's happening here? Is there something else? Is it just a good time to step down? What's your take on all of this as somebody who's been in that role?
我们说的都是些还很年轻的人,他们中有些人在和我坐下来交谈时曾说:“你看,去构想 AI 将会带来什么真的很艰难,那将会是一场长达 5 年的转型。你该怎么把这件事想透彻?”这就是眼下正在发生的事情吗?还是有其他原因?或者只是恰好到了激流勇退的好时机?作为曾亲历过这一职位的人,你对这一切怎么看?
P4612:57:31
Chris DavisChairman
You know, I think in every one of these cases, it's something different. I think in Apple's case, Tim's done this for a long time. I think he has realized that there's an opportunity for product innovation, and somebody like John, you know, is head of hardware engineering. You probably couldn't pick a better person for the next decade of Apple. The need for innovation. I think at Coke, Enrique is a fabulous successor. I would've loved to have seen James stay longer, I think that, you know, the demands of these jobs are great, especially a company like Coca-Cola where you're operating in 204 countries around the world, and you're traveling to those countries. I think Enrique will be an excellent successor. I think in Doug's case, he acknowledged that the AI transition is gonna be one that probably needs different leadership.
你知道,我认为在每一个案例中,具体情况都不尽相同。我认为就 Apple 而言,Tim 已经在这个岗位上干了很长时间。我想他已经意识到现在有一个产品创新的机会,而像 John 这样的人,你知道,他是硬件工程主管。为了 Apple 的下一个十年、为了创新的需求,你可能挑不出比他更合适的人选了。我认为在 Coke,Enrique 是一位极佳的继任者。我原本很希望看到 James 留任更长时间,但我认为,你知道,这些工作的要求极高,尤其是像 Coca-Cola 这样在全球 204 个国家开展业务的公司,你必须奔波于各个国家之间。我认为 Enrique 会成为一名非常优秀的继任者。而在 Doug 的案例中,我认为他承认了 AI 转型可能是一场需要不同领导力的变革。
P4622:58:21
I think in a lot of these cases that you're citing, you have CEOs who realize their limitations and the opportunities for somebody new that's gonna continue to create shareholder value for the businesses that they run, and they're so convicted to the future success of the company, like you see at Berkshire, that they're making the right choices.
我认为在你列举的许多这类案例中,这些首席执行官们意识到了自身的局限性,也看到了新人所能带来的机会——新人将继续为他们所经营的企业创造股东价值;正如同你在 Berkshire 所看到的那样,他们对公司未来的成功抱有如此坚定的信念,因此做出了正确的选择。
P4632:58:43
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
As you look at Berkshire, I mean, and it's understandable that it would be portrayed AI could be much more of an enhancement to a lot of what's done there as opposed to, you know, them being disrupted by it in various businesses. I was fascinated by what Ajit said about cyber risk related to AI, and how he just has a hard time figuring out how to model it. Like, is one incursion gonna proliferate? How are you gonna aggregate that risk?
当你审视 Berkshire 时,我的意思是,完全可以理解为什么大家会把 AI 描绘成对 Berkshire 现有许多业务的增强赋能,而不是说它在各个业务领域被 AI 所颠覆。但我对 Ajit 所说的关于 AI 相关的网络风险非常着迷,他说自己很难弄清楚该如何为这种风险建模。比如,一次入侵是否会迅速扩散?你该如何汇总计算那种风险?
P4642:59:07
Chris DavisChairman
Well, the beauty of the AI is it will model the risks for you.
嗯,AI 的美妙之处在于,它会替你为这些风险建模。
P4652:59:12
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
Model.
建模。
P4662:59:12
Chris DavisChairman
And-
而且——
P4672:59:12
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
Show them to you, yeah.
把它们展示给你,没错。
P4682:59:14
Chris DavisChairman
it will give you an opportunity to then assess, you know, how right or wrong has the AI actually given you the ability to assess it. Those AI tools are gonna be incredibly useful. You look at, like, these operating businesses, they're run incredibly efficiently from an SG&A perspective, there's no question that there's optimization opportunities. Like, just think about, like, risk calculation in the insurance business. AI will be an enormous contributor to reassessment of risk, reassessment of pricing. I just think all these operating businesses over time are gonna have a great benefit in efficiencies and opportunities from AI.
它会给你一个机会去评估,你知道,评估 AI 实际上赋予你的判断能力到底有多准确或多偏差。那些 AI 工具将会非常有用。你看看这些运营业务,从销售、一般及行政费用(SG&A)的角度来看,它们的运营效率已经极其出色,但毫无疑问仍然存在优化的机会。比如,只要想想保险业务中的风险测算。AI 将对风险的重新评估和定价的重新评估做出巨大贡献。我只是觉得,随着时间的推移,所有这些运营业务都将在效率和机遇方面从 AI 中获益匪浅。
P4692:59:52
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
What do you wanna hear more? What have you not heard so far that maybe you'd like to hear in the second Q&A session? Asking for a friend.
你还想多听些什么?到目前为止有哪些内容是你还没听到、或许希望在第二场问答环节中听到的?我是替一个朋友问的。
P4703:00:01
Chris DavisChairman
Well, you know, I think they're not gonna talk a lot about the macro environment, but I would like to hear their perspectives about the macro environment.
嗯,你知道,我觉得他们不会过多谈论宏观环境,但我很想听听他们对宏观环境的看法。
P4713:00:14
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Yeah.
是的。
P4723:00:14
Chris DavisChairman
I just don't think that that's something that historically they've spent a lot of time talking. I think when you look at where the S&P is trading, and you think about a 26x multiple and 100-year mean at 17x, we will regress to the mean.
我只是觉得从历史上看,那不是他们会花很多时间去谈论的话题。我认为,当你看看目前 S&P 的交易水平,想想现在的 26 倍市盈率以及 100 年历史均值 17 倍,我们终将回归均值。
P4733:00:35
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Yeah.
是的。
P4743:00:35
Chris DavisChairman
I almost think it's implicit in the cash balances what they think about the opportunities going forward.
我甚至觉得,他们对未来投资机会的看法,其实已经隐含在巨额现金余额之中了。
P4753:00:44
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
You would think, I mean, because Berkshire was so somewhat early in identifying Japan as an opportunity for kind of rejuvenization, whether he might have a view on that, if he gets a question on that.
你会觉得,我是说,因为 Berkshire 相对较早地发现了日本经济复兴的投资机会,如果有人问到这个问题,他是否会对此发表看法。
P4763:00:53
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Yeah.
是的。
P4773:00:54
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
Because I know that Greg was kind of close to that transaction.
因为我知道 Greg 与那笔交易的关系相当密切。
P4783:00:57
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Right. Right.
没错,没错。
P4793:00:58
Chris DavisChairman
I think they answered that with Tokio Marine.
我认为他们已经用投资 Tokio Marine 的行动回答了这个问题。
P4803:01:00
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
True enough, yeah.
确实如此,是的。
P4813:01:01
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Right. Right.
对,没错。
P4823:01:01
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
Through their actions, yeah.
通过他们的实际行动,没错。
P4833:01:03
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Right.
对。
P4843:01:03
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
Yeah.
是的。
P4853:01:03
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
I keep going back to just the structure and how it's changed. I will tell you, I've been hearing from a lot of people who have been kinda texting me and telling me what they're thinking from the arena while they're sitting in there. The general impression is people were pleasantly surprised by how much they learned in this meeting. Structure's changed. I think they're looking at it as an evolution that, hey, may not been what they wanted, but they're enjoying it to this point.
我的思绪总是回到大会的架构以及它所发生的变化上。我跟你们说,我收到了很多正坐在场馆里听会的人发来的短信,告诉我他们的想法。普遍的印象是,大家对自己在这次大会上学到如此多的东西感到惊喜。大会的形式改变了。我认为大家正把它看作是一种演进——嘿,这或许不是他们原本想要的样子,但到目前为止他们都很享受其中。
P4863:01:33
Chris DavisChairman
I have to say, I love the fact that they're actually doing more of a deep dive into the businesses.
我不得不说,我非常喜欢他们现在对各项业务进行更深入剖析的做法。
P4873:01:41
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Yeah.
是的。
P4883:01:42
Chris DavisChairman
I think that that's a great pivot. You know, you're never gonna replace the Warren-Charlie dynamic. That can never be replaced. For a company that's so big and so complex, has so many operating subsidiaries, going and actually doing a deep dive and showing the depth of the management teams across all of these businesses, I think that's a great pivot, and not what I expected, but something that I'm actually really enjoying.
我认为这是一个极佳的转变。你知道,你永远无法替代 Warren 和 Charlie 之间的那种默契互动。那是永远无法被替代的。但对于一家规模如此庞大、如此复杂、拥有如此多运营子公司的企业来说,真正去深入剖析业务,并展示所有这些业务板块管理团队的阵容深度,我认为这是一个极佳的转变——虽然出乎我的意料,但我确实非常享受。
P4893:02:08
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
That's great. Bobby, I wanna thank you very much for sitting here with us and talking this through. It's been a pleasure. Appreciate it.
太棒了。Bobby,非常感谢你今天坐在这里和我们深入交流。非常愉快,感激不尽。
P4903:02:15
Chris DavisChairman
Thank you for having me.
感谢邀请我。
P4913:02:16
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
By the way, I'm gonna head out at the same time. We've got Warren Buffett coming up in just a little bit, and we might get the chance to ask him about some of those macro issues that you were just referencing, about what he sees happening with the economy and stocks right now too.
顺便说一句,我也要同时动身回场馆了。再过一会儿 Warren Buffett 就要登场了,我们或许有机会向他请教一些你刚才提到的宏观问题,听听他对当前经济形势和股市的看法。
P4923:02:27
Chris DavisChairman
That'd be great. Thank you.
那太好了。谢谢你。
P4933:02:28
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Thank you.
谢谢。
P4943:02:30
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
All right. Well, get on back in there.
好的。那你赶紧回场馆去吧。
P4953:02:31
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Bye.
再见。
P4963:02:31
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
I'll see you in a little bit. One other newsy nugget from this morning was a question about insurance and the current risk around shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Here's what Vice Chairman of Insurance Operations, Ajit Jain, had to say about that.
回头见。今天上午另一个颇具新闻价值的看点,是关于保险以及当前霍尔木兹海峡航运风险的问题。以下是保险业务副董事长 Ajit Jain 对此的回答。
P4973:02:45
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
The question is, how and when can you offer insurance to ships crossing the Strait of Hormuz?
问题是,你们如何以及何时能够为穿越霍尔木兹海峡的船只提供保险?
P4983:02:55
Ajit JainVice Chairman of Insurance Operations
Ajit, I like your Charlie answer.
Ajit,我喜欢你刚才那个颇有 Charlie 风格的回答。
P4993:03:15
Greg AbelPresident and CEO
Obviously some thought has gone into that because there's a lot of dynamics there.
显然我们对这个问题已经做了一些思考,因为那里涉及很多动态因素。
P5003:03:22
Ajit JainVice Chairman of Insurance Operations
Yeah, there is a lot of chatter. There's a lot of need. Fortunately, there's enough capacity in the insurance world today that would like to write that risk, for no other reason but people are sitting on excess capital, and they'd like to find a way to deploy that excess capital. We ourselves have taken a small participation in a program that's being put in place so as to write insurance for the ships in the Strait of Hormuz. We haven't written any deals as yet. It's still being fine-tuned.
是的,现在有很多讨论,也有很大的需求。幸运的是,如今保险界有足够的承保能力愿意承保这种风险,原因无他,大家手里都坐拥过剩资本,都想找到办法把这些过剩资本配置出去。我们自己也小比例参与了一个正在筹建的项目,旨在为霍尔木兹海峡的船只承保。目前我们还没有签下任何保单。该项目仍在微调完善中。
P5013:04:01
If we can get our terms in terms of the underwriting decisions and the fact that the US Navy will escort these ships, we have put a price on which we will be comfortable underwriting that risk. Nothing's happened as yet.
如果我们在核保决策方面的条款能够得到满足,再加上美国海军将为这些船只护航这一事实,我们已经给出了一个让我们觉得可以放心承保该风险的报价。不过目前还没有实际成交。
P5023:04:19
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
Greg Abel also highlighted what makes Berkshire's business special and spelled out his ethos for running the company going forward.
Greg Abel 还强调了是什么让 Berkshire 的业务如此特别,并阐述了他未来经营这家公司的核心理念。
P5033:04:26
Greg AbelPresident and CEO
How are we unique as a conglomerate? We live by the fact that we hate bureaucracy. We do not embrace in our. Thank you. Yes. Ajit's the biggest fan. He reminds me constantly, and I love it, and I treasure it. No, we've heard many times, the ABCs, the arrogance, bureaucracy, complacency that can creep into a company will kill a company, and we intend to never allow that to happen. We have this unique opportunity to both take the businesses we have today, take that foundation, and build upon it.
作为一家大型综合企业,我们的独特之处在哪里?我们的生存之道在于我们对官僚主义深恶痛绝。我们在公司里绝不迎合官僚作风。谢谢大家。是的,Ajit 是这一理念的头号支持者。他经常提醒我,我非常喜欢这一点,也倍加珍视。没错,我们已经听过无数次了,那个“ABC”——即傲慢(arrogance)、官僚主义(bureaucracy)和自满(complacency)——一旦悄然渗入一家公司,就会扼杀这家公司,而我们决意永远不让这种事情发生。我们拥有这样一个独特的机会,既可以把握住今天已有的各项业务、立足于这一根基,又可以在此基础上继续开拓壮大。
P5043:05:12
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
Let's get a deeper dive into this morning's Q&A session with our Yun Li. Yun, you looked at the numbers this morning. Of course, you were in on the session from Greg Abel this morning. What are your headline thoughts?
让我们和记者 Yun Li 一起深入回顾一下今天上午的问答环节。Yun,你今天早上查看了财报数据,当然你也全程听了今天上午 Greg Abel 的问答环节。你最核心的感想是什么?
P5053:05:24
Yun LiReporter, CNBC
He really spent a good chunk of time talking about the equity portfolio, which I think a lot of shareholders really appreciated because there were some doubts about how he's able to be this hands-on operator at the same time running this massive portfolio, right? He talked about how he's thinking about it, the core four, that's Apple, American Express, Coca-Cola, and Moody's, the Japanese holdings, some other significant stake like Bank of America and Google.
他确实花了相当长的一段时间来谈论股票投资组合,我认为许多股东对此非常赞赏,因为之前有一些疑虑,担心他如何能够在做一名亲力亲为的实业运营者的同时,管理好这个庞大的投资组合,对吧?他谈到了自己的思考方式:四大核心持仓,即 Apple、American Express、Coca-Cola 和 Moody's;日本商社持仓;以及其他一些重要持仓,比如 Bank of America 和 Google。
P5063:05:53
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
Yeah.
是的。
P5073:05:53
Yun LiReporter, CNBC
I think it's really interesting, and I think a lot of people appreciate it. Also, like you said, last quarter, Berkshire Hathaway was actually a net seller of stocks once again, selling about a net $8 billion of stocks. That's just not slight tweaking, right? That's. There's a lot of repositioning going on.
我觉得这非常有趣,而且我认为很多人都很赞赏这一点。另外,就像你说的,上个季度 Berkshire Hathaway 实际上再次成为股票的净卖家,净卖出约 80 亿美元的股票。这可不只是小幅微调,对吧?这背后有很多调仓换股的动作。
P5083:06:15
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
It was $24 billion in growth sales and then $16 billion in purchases netting out to minus $8 billion. Yeah, that's not trivial. It's interesting, he definitely spent a lot of time on the portfolio characterizing how he views, I guess, different pieces of it. Those things that were not mentioned, like all the rest, I think it still leaves open the question of whether he considers them either too small to matter or maybe not worth spending a lot of time on.
具体来说是总额 240 亿美元的卖出,加上 160 亿美元的买入,净额为负 80 亿美元。是的,这绝不是个小数目。很有意思的是,他确实花了很多时间在投资组合上,阐述了他如何看待其中的不同组成部分。而那些没有被提及的持仓,也就是剩下的所有股票,我认为这仍然留下了一个悬念:他究竟是觉得它们规模太小而无关紧要,还是觉得不值得在上面花费太多时间。
P5093:06:43
Yun LiReporter, CNBC
Right. That's a good question. What happens to the rest of the stock he didn't mention? Also the selling we talked about, a part of it, I think, is likely tied to the departure of Todd Combs, the, you know, the unwinding of the positions he used to run, right? Because he left for JP Morgan at the end of last year.
没错,这是个好问题。他没有提到的其余股票会怎么样?另外,我们谈到的股票卖出,我认为其中一部分很可能与 Todd Combs 的离职有关——也就是平仓清理他过去负责管理的那部分头寸,对吧?因为他在去年年底跳槽去了 JP Morgan。
P5103:07:01
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
Right.
没错。
P5113:07:02
Yun LiReporter, CNBC
We don't know exactly which stocks they were, but I know he said in the past that Visa and Mastercard were the 2 first stocks he bought for Berkshire 15, 16 years ago. We'll see if those ones are still there.
我们不知道具体是哪些股票,但我知道他过去曾说过,Visa 和 Mastercard 是他 15、16 年前为 Berkshire 买入的头 2 只股票。我们可以看看那些持仓是否还在。
P5123:07:15
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
If they survived.
看看它们是否还保留着。
P5133:07:16
Yun LiReporter, CNBC
Yeah.
是的。
P5143:07:16
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
Yeah, exactly. I think there was a little bit of suspense about how much share repurchase activity there was in the quarter. Obviously, Greg Abel had said they had restarted the buyback program over $200 million. It turns out it was $235 million total in the quarter. Obviously, a pretty small amount relative-
对,完全正确。我认为关于本季度到底有多少股票回购活动,之前还有点悬念。显然,Greg Abel 之前曾表示他们已经重启了回购计划,金额超过 2 亿美元。结果本季度的回购总额是 2.35 亿美元。显然,这是个相当小的金额,相对于——
P5153:07:34
Yun LiReporter, CNBC
Yeah
是的。
P5163:07:34
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
to a trillion-dollar market cap.
相对于万亿美元的市值而言。
P5173:07:35
Yun LiReporter, CNBC
Right. That's very small. He still sounded very, you know, conservative, and he signaled this, you know, disciplined approach to buyback. You know, they're evaluating the intrinsic value with Warren Buffett. Yeah, I think people wanna hear more aggressive buyback approach.
没错,那非常小。他听起来仍然非常保守,并且传递出了这种严守纪律的回购方式。你知道,他们正在和 Warren Buffett 一起评估内在价值。是的,我想大家希望能听到更积极主动的回购策略。
P5183:07:54
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
Yeah, especially when you consider, you know, all the cash that they have. Now, you know, that's obviously a cushion, and it's obviously ammunition to go and do something down the road if they want to do it.
是的,尤其是当你考虑到他们手里拥有的巨额现金时。当然,你知道,这显然是一个安全垫,同时也是未来如果他们想要有所行动时的充足弹药。
P5193:08:04
Yun LiReporter, CNBC
Yeah.
是的。
P5203:08:04
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
A lot of folks feel as if, well, if you feel as if there's a positive expected return to buying your shares at these levels, maybe do more of that.
很多人觉得,既然你们认为在当前价位回购自家股票有着正的预期回报,或许就应该多回购一些。
P5213:08:12
Yun LiReporter, CNBC
Right.
没错。
P5223:08:12
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
They wanna just wait for a bigger discount to their estimate of intrinsic value.
他们只是想等待相对于其内在价值估算更大的折价。
P5233:08:15
Yun LiReporter, CNBC
Right. Totally. He did sound like he's ready to buy new, either companies or stocks when the price is right.
对,完全没错。不过他听起来确实已经准备好在价格合适的时候买入新的公司或股票了。
P5243:08:22
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
Yeah.
是的。
P5253:08:22
Yun LiReporter, CNBC
Just judging by how comfortable he was talking about AI and tech and, you know, LLMs and the deepfake video we saw.
单从他在谈论 AI、科技、大语言模型(LLM)以及我们看到的那段深度伪造(deepfake)视频时那种游刃有余的状态来看。
P5263:08:30
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
Yeah
是的。
P5273:08:31
Yun LiReporter, CNBC
I wonder if there's a sign that maybe Berkshire would be more open to technology investments going forward because as we know, Buffett was a little bit hesitant because it was outside of his circle of competence before.
我在想,这是否是一个信号,表明未来 Berkshire 可能会对科技领域的投资更加开放;因为正如我们所知,Buffett 以前对此有些犹豫,因为那超出了他当时的能力圈。
P5283:08:43
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
It's true.
确实如此。
P5293:08:44
Yun LiReporter, CNBC
Mm-hmm.
嗯。
P5303:08:44
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
Yeah, it is interesting, especially when you consider, you know, some of these big formerly blue chip software companies that have actually come down so much in valuation because of AI disruption fear, if Berkshire would see that as a dislocated deal that they could get in there.
是的,这确实很有意思,尤其是当你考虑到,一些以前堪称蓝筹股的大型软件公司,因为市场对 AI 颠覆的恐惧,估值实际上已经大幅回落——不知道 Berkshire 是否会将其视为一个出现价格错配的交易机会并介入其中。
P5313:08:58
Yun LiReporter, CNBC
Yeah, totally. To that point, they added that Alphabet stake. It was pretty significant, more than $4 billion last year. Then he did mention it in his, you know, session.
是的,完全同意。就这一点而言,他们增持了 Alphabet 的股份。规模相当可观,去年超过了 40 亿美元。而且他在刚才的问答环节里也确实提到了它。
P5323:09:10
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
Sure.
没错。
P5333:09:10
Yun LiReporter, CNBC
There, I think there are signs that they're getting more into technology.
我认为有迹象表明他们正在更多地涉足科技领域。
P5343:09:14
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
Yun, I think we, with tech being a big topic of discussion this morning, Abel did take a moment to speak about the role data centers will play in Berkshire's energy investments. Listen up.
Yun,随着科技成为今天上午讨论的一大热门话题,Abel 也确实花了一点时间谈到数据中心将在 Berkshire 的能源投资中扮演的角色。我们来听一下。
P5353:09:25
Greg AbelPresident and CEO
If I look at our peak load, i.e., the amount of energy being used from those data centers, it's at 8% of their peak load. The only reason I highlight that 8% is when I hear people in the industry and all the utilities around us, a lot of states, they're talking about this great opportunity, and geez, hopefully in the next 5 years, they'll be from a relatively starting point. They want to get to the 5%-10%, and we're already at 8, and we see opportunities to grow that by 50% over the next 5 years or potentially more. We'll do it in a way, and you're starting to hear more and more of this across the U.S., we'll do it in a way where we're not going to impact the costs of our other customers.
如果我看一下我们的峰值负荷,也就是那些数据中心所使用的能源量,它已经占到峰值负荷的 8%。我之所以特别强调这个 8%,唯一的原因是当我听到行业内的人以及我们周围所有的公用事业公司、许多州在谈论这个巨大机遇时,天哪,他们希望在未来 5 年内从相对起步的阶段达到 5% 到 10%,而我们已经达到了 8%,并且我们看到在未来 5 年内将其再增长 50% 甚至更多的机会。而且我们会以一种不会影响其他客户用电成本的方式来推进——现在全美各地也越来越多地听到这种做法。
P5363:10:16
those, the hyperscalers, the data centers, and the users of the energy, they have to bear their full cost.
那些超大规模云厂商(hyperscalers)、数据中心以及能源的使用者,他们必须承担自己的全部成本。
P5373:10:27
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
Interesting. He's able to portray the utility business as essentially, you know, kind of newly a growth business, pretty ahead of the industry in terms of data center exposure, but able to do it in a way that's not gonna harm local-
很有意思。他把公用事业业务基本上描绘成了一项新的成长型业务,在数据中心业务敞口方面相当领先于整个行业,同时又能以一种不会损害当地——
P5383:10:38
Yun LiReporter, CNBC
Right. Totally.
对,完全没错。
P5393:10:39
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
... customers.
……客户利益的方式去实现。
P5403:10:39
Yun LiReporter, CNBC
I think it's definitely welcome news that, you know, he's trying to expand into data center infrastructure build out. It's such a growth area.
我认为他努力向数据中心基础设施建设领域拓展,绝对是个受欢迎的好消息。这是一个极具增长潜力的领域。
P5413:10:48
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
Yeah.
是的。
P5423:10:48
Yun LiReporter, CNBC
Yeah.
是的。
P5433:10:49
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
For sure. I mean, I guess the other pieces of it, at this point, they highlighted some of the connections among some of the industrial businesses. They talk about the building products area. Even though they don't wanna say that this is all meant to, you know, fit together like some kind of a top-down machine.
确实如此。我是说,我想除此之外的另一个看点是,他们今天强调了旗下一些工业业务之间的联系。他们谈到了建材产品领域。尽管他们并不想把这一切说成是某种自上而下精密咬合的机器。
P5443:11:06
Yun LiReporter, CNBC
Right
对。
P5453:11:06
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
There are linkages between these companies.
但这些公司之间确实存在着联动关系。
P5463:11:08
Yun LiReporter, CNBC
Yeah, he's talking about, he also talked about AI in a broader sense, and he's evaluating ways that can be additive to Berkshire's array of different businesses, right? How they can be more productive and efficient.
是的,他还在更广泛的意义上谈到了 AI,并且他正在评估各种能够为 Berkshire 旗下众多不同业务带来增量的途径,对吧?也就是如何让这些业务变得更具生产力、更加高效。
P5473:11:21
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
Yeah, for sure. You know that's a big part of the priorities here as well as in the insurance business with Ajit. Julie, thank you so much. Enjoy the second part of the session. We're now awaiting what was just announced a little while ago as an interview between our Becky Quick and Warren Buffett, who of course remains Chairman of the company. Thereafter, there will be another Q&A session that's gonna include some of the folks from the operating businesses as well. That interview between Becky and Warren will happen back in the arena for all to see.
是的,毫无疑问。你知道这是这里的重点工作之一,在 Ajit 负责的保险业务中也是如此。Julie,非常感谢你。祝你愉快地观看下半场会议。我们现在正等待一会儿之前刚刚宣布的环节——由我们的 Becky Quick 对依然担任公司董事长的 Warren Buffett 进行专访。在那之后,还将有另一场问答环节,届时来自各个运营业务板块的高管们也会参与其中。Becky 与 Warren 的这场专访将在场馆内现场进行,全场观众都能看到。
P5483:11:55
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Mike, thank you very much. I want to welcome everybody back in the arena. Make sure you are getting time to get back to your seats. I know we did not give you a lot of time for a break, so I hope you made it to the bathroom and you are back and getting ready to sit down. We are sitting down right now with Warren Buffett, the Chairman of Berkshire Hathaway, who for the first time in 60 years, has been watching all of this from the audience instead of being on stage. You know, last year at this time, Warren, you surprised everyone with the announcement that you were stepping down as CEO. Fast-forward a year, and here we are. What do you think?
Mike,非常感谢。欢迎大家回到场馆。请大家抓紧时间回到自己的座位上。我知道我们没有留给大家太多中场休息的时间,希望各位都已经去过洗手间,并且已经回来准备就座了。现在正与我们促膝长谈的是 Berkshire Hathaway 董事长 Warren Buffett,这是他 60 年来第一次坐在台下观众席上、而不是在舞台上观看这一切。Warren,去年的这个时候,你宣布卸任首席执行官,让所有人都大吃一惊。转眼一年过去了,我们来到了今天。你觉得怎么样?
P5493:12:29
Warren BuffettChairman
Well, I think it's all working.
嗯,我认为一切都运转良好。
P5503:12:30
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Yeah.
是的。
P5513:12:30
Warren BuffettChairman
It's all working. It isn't our ideal surrounding area, or environment I should say, in terms of deploying cash for Berkshire. In terms of how we got the right management, we got the right arrangement, you know, we can pick our spots.
一切都运转良好。就为 Berkshire 配置现金而言,眼下并不是我们理想的周边区域——或者我应该说是理想的环境。但就我们拥有合适的管理层、拥有合适的制度安排而言,你知道,我们可以耐心挑选出手的时机。
P5523:12:57
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Mm-hmm
嗯。
P5533:12:57
Warren BuffettChairman
Nobody can tell us what to do exactly. Sometimes we're doing nothing. Other times we get quite active. I mean.
没有人能对我们指手画脚。有时候我们按兵不动,其他时候我们则会非常活跃。我是说。
P5543:13:10
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
You know, Ajit spent some time on the stage today talking about how one of his keys is to do nothing when it comes to.
你知道,Ajit 今天在台上花了一些时间谈到,他的关键秘诀之一就是在适当的时候按兵不动,当涉及到——
P5553:13:17
Warren BuffettChairman
Absolutely
完全正确。
P5563:13:17
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
insurance, when it comes to writing insurance, which is the same thing that you have always talked about with whether to invest or not.
——保险,涉及到承保业务时,这和你一直以来谈论是否要进行投资时的理念如出一辙。
P5573:13:23
Warren BuffettChairman
Yeah. The world is full of people that are offering you things to do, and then the question is to find one that, you know, makes sense. There may be 20 out there that make sense that you don't understand and you just leave them alone.
是的。这个世界上到处都是向你推销各种机会的人,而问题在于找到一个真正合乎情理的机会。外面可能有 20 个合乎情理的机会,但如果你看不懂,你就干脆别去碰它们。
P5583:13:39
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
You said that the world or the surrounding environment is not ideal. I guess that points to the idea that there's almost $400 billion in cash on hand. Greg took some pains to show it's really more like $380 billion in cash on hand.
你说现在的世界或周围环境并不理想。我想这指的就是目前账上几乎有 4,000 亿美元现金这件事。Greg 特意花了一番功夫说明实际账上现金更接近 3,800 亿美元。
P5593:13:52
Warren BuffettChairman
Well yeah.
嗯,是的。
P5603:13:52
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
There's a lot of cash on hand, and you're still active in managing the portfolio too and looking at stocks. You're looking around and you don't see a lot that you want to invest in.
手头有大量的现金,而且你仍然积极参与管理投资组合并审视各种股票。你环顾四周,并没有看到太多你想投资的标的。
P5613:14:02
Warren BuffettChairman
No. Well, we don't do anything.
是的。嗯,我们什么也没做。
P5623:14:06
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Yeah.
是的。
P5633:14:06
Warren BuffettChairman
I mean, Of the 60 years I've been in the business, you know, there's probably 5 of them are really juicy, you know? I think it was Thomas J. Watson Sr. of IBM that, said, they asked him the reason why IBM had been so successful or something like that, and he said, "I'm smart at spots, and I stay around those spots." That's the whole thing. IBM was in 3 different businesses, including time clocks and a couple And 2 of the 3 turned out to be no good, but they, so they just focused on the 1.
我是说,在我从业的 60 年里,你知道,真正肥美诱人的年份大概也就 5 年吧?我记得好像是 IBM 的 Thomas J. Watson Sr. 说过,有人问他为什么 IBM 能如此成功之类的问题,他说:“我只在局部领域聪明,而且我就待在这些领域附近。”这就是全部的秘诀。IBM 当时涉足 3 个不同的业务,包括考勤钟等几样业务,3 个里面有 2 个后来证明不行,于是他们就只专注于那 1 个。
P5643:14:51
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
What is it when you look around that it's just prices are too high at this point? I would imagine.
当你环顾四周时,到底是什么原因?我想,只是因为目前的价格太高了吧?
P5653:14:56
Warren BuffettChairman
Yeah
是的。
P5663:14:56
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
there are, Greg said this from the stage too.
有一些——Greg 在台上也说了这一点。
P5673:14:58
Warren BuffettChairman
Yeah
是的。
P5683:14:58
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
There are businesses that you like, just not at these prices.
有一些你喜欢的企业,只是在目前的价格下不想买。
P5693:15:00
Warren BuffettChairman
Well, and I would say I understand fewer of the businesses as a percentage of the whole than I did 10 years ago. I have not learned new industries for some years, you know? I don't kid myself on that. I'm not going to learn. I'm not gonna have an edge on, you know, a whole bunch of younger people that have actually grown up with them, used the product, seen things. But it, well, as I mentioned, you know, you don't have to understand too many of them like Apple.
嗯,而且我想说,相比 10 年前,我能看懂的企业占全部企业的比例变少了。我有好些年没有去学习新的行业了,你知道吧?在这一点上我不会自欺欺人。我不打算再去学了。面对一大群实际上伴随着这些新事物长大、亲身使用过这些产品、见识过这些变化的年轻人,我不可能拥有优势。不过,正如我提到的,你并不需要看懂太多企业,只要看懂像 Apple 这样的就够了。
P5703:15:43
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Right. Looking around, let's just get some macro thoughts on this because I don't know that this is something that Greg is going to comment on per se. Just looking at the macro stock market environment, what does this feel like to you? Does it feel expensive? Does it feel like there are opportunities in some places?
没错。环顾当下,让我们来听听你对宏观层面的一些看法吧,因为我不知道 Greg 本人是否会就这类问题发表评论。单看宏观股市环境,你现在感觉如何?觉得贵吗?还是觉得某些地方仍然存在机会?
P5713:16:02
Warren BuffettChairman
Well, it feels like, you know, I've compared it, the markets, to a church with a casino attached. People can move between the church and casino. I always say there are more people in the church than more people in the casino but the casino's gotten very attractive to people. You know, if you're buying one-day options or selling them, I mean, that is, that's not investing, it's not speculating, it's gambling. You know, just totally. There's nobody that can explain why they're buying an option for one day, unless they may have, maybe the fellow that, you know, made the $400-something thousand from knowing when we were going into Venezuela could do it. I mean, at trade-in. The quantity of those things is just incredible.
嗯,这种感觉就像是——你知道,我曾把市场比作一座附带了赌场的教堂。人们可以在教堂和赌场之间来回走动。我总是说,待在教堂里的人比待在赌场里的人多,但现在赌场对人们变得极具吸引力。你知道,如果你在买入或卖出末日期权(一日到期期权),我是说,那根本不是投资,甚至也不是投机,那就是赌博。完完全全就是赌博。没有任何人能解释清楚自己为什么要买只有一天期限的期权,除非他们掌握了某种内幕——也许那个因为提前知道我们要对委内瑞拉采取行动而赚了 40 多万美元(400 多千美元)的家伙能做到。我是说,那种交易的数量简直令人难以置信。
P5723:16:58
We've never had people in a more gambling mood than now, but that doesn't mean that investing is terrible. It does mean that prices for an awful lot of things will look very silly. I mean, you know, they had a squeeze in Avis of all things. Well, Avis has been around for 50 years, but just this past week. We have lots more re- regulation in everything now, but people spend their time figuring out how to get around the rules rather than follow the rules.
人们的情绪从未像现在这样充满赌性,但这并不意味着投资环境就很糟糕。它确实意味着,极多东西的价格看起来会非常荒唐可笑。我是说,你知道,就连 Avis 这样的股票竟然都发生了逼空行情。要知道,Avis 已经存在 50 年了,而这就在刚刚过去的一周里发生。现在我们在各个方面都有了多得多的监管规定,但人们却把时间花在琢磨如何绕过规则,而不是遵守规则上。
P5733:17:36
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Mm-hmm.
嗯。
P5743:17:36
Warren BuffettChairman
that's just a challenge.
这本身就是一个挑战。
P5753:17:39
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
The type of investor you are, though, is, you laid it out yourself, in the 60 years you've been doing this in the business, you've had maybe five juicy years. I guess that means you're always looking for the next juicy year. What do you think it would take to make a juicy year or a juicy opportunity for you?
不过,正如你自己所阐述的,像你这一类型的投资者,在从事这行的 60 年里,大概只有 5 个肥美诱人的好年份。我想这意味着你总是在寻找下一个好年份。你认为需要发生什么,才能为你造就一个肥美的好年份或好机会?
P5763:17:56
Warren BuffettChairman
Yeah. It's a phone call in many, in some cases. You know, we bought a business last year. It wasn't big enough to be in Meaningful, but we got a letter.
是的。在很多——在某些情况下,那只是一通电话的事。你知道,我们去年收购了一家企业。它的规模还没有大到足以产生重大影响,但我们当时是收到了一封信。
P5773:18:07
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Bell Laboratories?
是 Bell Laboratories 吗?
P5783:18:09
Warren BuffettChairman
Yeah.
是的。
P5793:18:09
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Bell Laboratories.
Bell Laboratories。
P5803:18:09
Warren BuffettChairman
Bell Laboratories. No, and, you know, and sometimes there's more zeros attached to them than others and we're big enough to handle anything, and we can make decisions faster than anybody, and our word is as good. There's an awful lot of people that they're, when they're in the business of reselling something or-
对,Bell Laboratories。你知道,有时候有些交易后面的零比其他交易更多,而我们的体量足够大,可以承接任何规模的交易,而且我们做决策的速度比任何人都快,我们向来一言九鼎。有太多太多的人,当他们干的是转手倒卖某样东西的行当,或者——
P5813:18:34
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Mm-hmm
嗯。
P5823:18:34
Warren BuffettChairman
you know, it's. There's, it's a lot better, if you're a good salesperson, there's no reason to be selling vacuum cleaners or, you know, as we'll sell stock. You'll make way more money.
你知道,如果你是个优秀的推销员,那你根本没理由去卖吸尘器之类的东西,而是会来卖股票。那样你会赚到多得多的钱。
P5833:18:50
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Mm-hmm.
嗯。
P5843:18:50
Warren BuffettChairman
It's where the money is.
因为那里才是钱聚集的地方。
P5853:18:51
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Yeah.
是的。
P5863:18:52
Warren BuffettChairman
There's more money around than ever. It, you know.
现在市面上的钱比以往任何时候都多。你知道。
P5873:18:57
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
The best opportunities have probably come when the macro environment leads to panic.
最好的机会往往是在宏观环境引发恐慌的时候出现的。
P5883:19:01
Warren BuffettChairman
That's the most likely.
那是最有可能的。
P5893:19:03
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Right?
对吧?
P5903:19:03
Warren BuffettChairman
Well, the most likely time to buy things is when nobody else will answer their phones. You know, everybody else talks about their wonderful trading departments and everything. Just try them out sometime when markets are collapsing. They don't answer the phones.
嗯,最有可能买到好东西的时候,就是其他所有人都不接电话的时候。你知道,平时其他所有人都在吹嘘自己拥有多么棒的交易部门之类的。等哪天市场崩盘的时候你去试试看就知道了,他们根本不接电话。
P5913:19:18
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Right. Right.
没错,没错。
P5923:19:20
Warren BuffettChairman
If they do, the bids are subject and the offers are subject, and the spread is wide, then they'll use the information they get from you about what you want to do to go out and kill you some other way. I mean, it's really like going through a slaughterhouse. I mean, you know, you don't feel like eating hot dogs for a while.
就算他们接了电话,买价也是附带条件的,卖价也是附带条件的,买卖价差大得惊人,然后他们还会利用从你这里套出的关于你交易意图的信息,转头用别的方式在市场上宰你一刀。我是说,那真就像是从屠宰场里走了一遭。你知道,弄得你接下来好一阵子都不想吃热狗了。
P5933:19:42
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
I guess what I'm trying to get at is, do you see the circumstances building up anywhere that could lead to a time like that again? Is any sort of panic in the market?
我想我真正想问的是,你是否看到任何地方正在积聚可能导致那种时刻再次上演的条件?市场中是否存在酝酿某种恐慌的苗头?
P5943:19:51
Warren BuffettChairman
Sure.
当然。
P5953:19:53
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Where do you see them?
你在哪里看到了这些苗头?
P5963:19:53
Warren BuffettChairman
Well, if you saw them, then they wouldn't happen.
嗯,如果你能提前看到它们,它们就不会发生了。
P5973:19:55
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Okay.
好吧。
P5983:19:56
Warren BuffettChairman
I mean, you've got all you don't worry about what people are talking about can happen. It's something that comes out of the blue. Something will come out of the blue.
我是说,人们挂在嘴边讨论可能会发生的事情,你根本不用去担心。真正引发巨变的总是平地惊雷、突如其来的事情。总会有某件事毫无征兆地突然降临。
P5993:20:08
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Yeah.
是的。
P6003:20:08
Warren BuffettChairman
I mean, a nuclear bomb could come out of the blue. You know.
我是说,核弹就可能毫无征兆地突然降临。你知道。
P6013:20:15
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Well, let's knock on wood on that.
哎呀,我们还是敲敲木头祈祷这别发生吧。
P6023:20:17
Warren BuffettChairman
Yeah, well, it doesn't do any good to knock on wood. That's the point.
是啊,但敲木头没有任何用处。这正是问题的关键。
P6033:20:23
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Yeah.
是的。
P6043:20:24
Warren BuffettChairman
It, you know, was the Archduke getting shot, you know, in the 1914 or something like that for World War One? It's just take everything in life. If it's something people are talking about and thinking about, it's not gonna happen.
你知道,就像 1914 年左右大公遇刺引发第一次世界大战那样?生活中的所有事情都是如此。如果某件事是大家都在谈论、都在思考的,它反而不会发生。
P6053:20:47
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Yeah.
是的。
P6063:20:47
Warren BuffettChairman
There are things that can happen out of the blue. Actually, that's particularly true to use that phraseology now because the things that can come out of the sky, you know, we don't know what can happen tomorrow. I don't like to talk that way to people, whether it's you or anybody else, I mean, because, you know, whether it does you a lot of good to worry about that, I don't think it does do any good to worry about it. I think it's good to be cognizant of it, but the worrying about it is terrible, and I don't like to even cause that belief with people. I don't like to go around.
总有一些事情会毫无征兆地从天而降。实际上,现在用“从天而降”这个词尤为贴切,因为那些真正可能从天上掉下来的东西,你知道,我们根本不知道明天会发生什么。我不喜欢跟别人这么说话,无论是对你还是对其他任何人,因为你要说去担心这种事能有什么好处,我觉得担心它一点好处也没有。我认为心里清楚有这种可能性是好的,但为此忧心忡忡就很糟糕了,我甚至不喜欢在人们心中引发那种恐慌念头。我不喜欢到处——
P6073:21:33
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Yeah
是的。
P6083:21:33
Warren BuffettChairman
telling them the end is coming, the end is coming or something like that.
到处跟别人说世界末日要来了、世界末日要来了之类的话。
P6093:21:37
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Yeah. A friend told me yesterday, he's recently started using the phrase, "I don't fret, I don't worry," and that's probably a good way to go about life. Let's talk about some of the issues that are out there right now. Inflation is up.
是的。昨天有位朋友告诉我,他最近开始把一句话挂在嘴边:“我不焦躁,我不担忧”,这大概是一种很好的生活态度。让我们来聊聊眼下存在的其他一些问题吧。通胀正在上升。
P6103:21:50
Warren BuffettChairman
well, it's.
嗯,它是——
P6113:21:50
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
That's an issue. How does Berkshire handle that with its businesses?
这是个问题。Berkshire 在旗下各项业务中是如何应对通胀的?
P6123:21:53
Warren BuffettChairman
Well, we can't handle runaway inflation except not to be there in the way of it. If you look at the number of countries that have had runaway inflation since World War II, you know, in my lifetime, it's very large. Once you create that, it becomes a different world. You know, Germany obviously experienced it after World War I. But there are dozens and dozens of countries that have experienced it. Of course you have countries that have gone bankrupt like 6 or 7 times. I mean, it's just amazing what people do.
嗯,面对失控的恶性通胀,我们也没有办法应对,唯一的办法就是别挡在它的路中间。如果你看看自第二次世界大战以来——也就是在我有生之年——经历过恶性通胀的国家数量,那是非常庞大的。一旦你制造出了恶性通胀,世界就彻底变了样。你知道,德国显然在第一次世界大战后经历过。但还有几十个国家也经历过这种事。当然,有些国家甚至破产过 6 次或 7 次。我是说,人们干出来的事简直令人匪夷所思。
P6133:22:41
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Mm-hmm
嗯。
P6143:22:42
Warren BuffettChairman
In financial markets.
在金融市场里。
P6153:22:44
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
What about the inflation that we're dealing with right now, which is, you know, not excessive? It's north of 3% at this point, but we're not even back at the levels we were during COVID-
那我们眼下正在应对的这种并不算极端的通胀呢?目前它在 3% 以上,但甚至还没回到新冠疫情期间的水平——
P6163:22:53
Warren BuffettChairman
Oh, no.
哦,确实没有。
P6173:22:53
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
... with 8%-9%. What about just higher energy prices, how that works through the line, and how you handle it?
……当时高达 8%-9%。那么单就更高的能源价格而言,它是如何沿着产业链传导的,你们又是如何应对的?
P6183:22:59
Warren BuffettChairman
Well, it came close before Volcker. I mean, it was cash is trash. You know? People were losing faith in the currency, and they felt they could borrow at 12%, earn 6% on farming or something like that. They, the huge farmers in this state, Nebraska, collapse because they bought beyond the earning power, their paid interest rates beyond the earning power, just because they felt that the dollar was gonna disappear and the land wouldn't disappear. It's tragic for many people. If you're the best doctor in town or the best lawyer in town, you'll always make money under any choice. The best TV personality.
嗯,在 Volcker 上台之前,我们曾差点走到那一步。我是说,当时大家都觉得“现金就是垃圾”。你知道吧?人们对货币失去了信心,觉得自己哪怕以 12% 的利率借钱,去买农场赚取 6% 左右的回报也划算。结果这个州——内布拉斯加州——的许多大农场主纷纷破产崩盘,因为他们买地的价格超出了土地的盈利能力,他们支付的利率也超出了盈利能力,仅仅因为他们觉得美元会消失,而土地不会消失。那对许多人来说都是一场悲剧。如果你是城里最好的医生,或者城里最好的律师,无论在什么环境下你都能赚钱。或者是顶尖的电视主持人。
P6193:24:01
What not having faith in the money does to a country, it turns it into something else.
一旦人们对货币失去信心,这会对一个国家造成巨大的冲击,会把它彻底变成另一个样子。
P6203:24:12
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Yeah.
是的。
P6213:24:13
Warren BuffettChairman
I, you know, I've always hoped that, you know, U.S. never does it, but we are not immune from it happening.
你知道,我一直希望美国永远不会走到那一步,但我们并非对此天生免疫。
P6223:24:21
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Yeah.
是的。
P6233:24:22
Warren BuffettChairman
We have a lot of control over whether rates may go up a half a point or down a half a point, but we may have less control over whether they go up 50 points or.
对于利率是上调 0.5 个百分点还是下调 0.5 个百分点,我们拥有很大的控制力;但对于利率是否会飙升 50 个百分点,我们的控制力可能就没那么大了。
P6243:24:34
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
You've long been a supporter of Jerome Powell's.
你长期以来一直是 Jerome Powell 的支持者。
P6253:24:38
Warren BuffettChairman
Exactly.
没错。
P6263:24:38
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
He had his last FOMC meeting as chairman just this last week. He did say that he's going to be sticking around, staying on the Fed, staying in that position for the foreseeable future, in part because of the threats that he's faced.
就在上周,他主持了作为主席的最后一次 FOMC 会议。他确实表示,在可预见的未来,他将继续留任,留在 Fed(美联储)、留在理事的岗位上,部分原因正是他所面临的那些威胁。
P6273:24:55
Warren BuffettChairman
I'll feel better when he's there than when he's not. I mean, you know, I just, I felt better when Volcker was there. Economists aren't the best at this sort of thing. You ever read any old economics book from 1950 or 1970, it was that Paul Samuelson, who was a terrific guy and smart as hell, he had the standard textbook for 25 years. If you looked up, you know, zero interest rates in year after year after year, it was a 900-page book, and there wasn't an entry for it. You know. I mean, it was the most important economic development, I mean, in terms of the impact it would have and everything during the lifetime of the students reading it.
有他在那里,我会比他不在那里感到更安心。我是说,你知道,当年 Volcker 在任的时候我就觉得更安心。经济学家并不最擅长处理这类事情。你如果读过 1950 年或 1970 年的任何一本老经济学教科书——当年 Paul Samuelson 是个了不起的人,聪明绝顶,他编写的教材在长达 25 年的时间里一直是标准教科书。如果你去查一下日复一日、年复一年的“零利率”,那是一本厚达 900 页的书,里面竟然连这方面的词条都没有。你知道,对于阅读这本教材的学生们来说,零利率明明是他们一生中就影响力各方面而言最重要的经济现象。
P6283:25:55
it's what you don't think of that does all the damage.
往往正是那些你根本没想到的事情,造成了所有的破坏。
P6293:26:02
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Yeah. Let's talk a little bit about CEOs in some of the Berkshire holdings. You mentioned Apple's Tim Cook, and just the phenomenal job you think he's done.
是的。让我们稍微聊聊 Berkshire 持仓公司中的几位首席执行官吧。你提到了 Apple 的 Tim Cook,以及你认为他完成了多么了不起的工作。
P6303:26:13
Warren BuffettChairman
Incredible.
令人难以置信的出色。
P6313:26:14
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
He's not the only one of your major holding CEOs who's stepped down. James Quincey recently stepped down from Coca-Cola too.
他并不是你们主要持仓公司中唯一卸任的首席执行官。James Quincey 最近也从 Coca-Cola 卸任了。
P6323:26:21
Warren BuffettChairman
Yeah.
是的。
P6333:26:21
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
We just spoke with Vicki Hollub, who announced that she is retiring and stepping down from that position at Occidental. Part of what Greg's talked about is how stable that portfolio is and these holdings are companies that he knows and managers that he knows. There's gonna be some new managers in some of those major holdings coming in. Is that a problem?
我们刚才还和 Vicki Hollub 聊过,她也宣布即将退休并卸任在 Occidental 的职位。Greg 刚才谈到的内容中,有一部分是关于这个投资组合有多么稳定,而且这些持仓都是他熟悉的公司和他熟悉的管理者。但接下来在这些主要持仓公司中,将会有一些新的管理者上任。这会是个问题吗?
P6343:26:41
Warren BuffettChairman
Well, it was certainly a problem at Coca-Cola there for a good many years when I was around the company. I mean, sure, it's. You have the most problems with a really good company because it'll continue. I mean, if you're selling some product that people are buying every day, you know, you can make the wrong decision for a long time. That's one of the problems with investing that. Tim Cook, I felt was very, very good from the start. Our, most of our managers are very good at the smaller problems. Like, they can't anticipate the overwhelming problems. That's my job, or now Greg's job.
嗯,当年我在 Coca-Cola 董事会的那好些年里,这确实曾是个问题。我是说,当然会是问题。往往真正优秀的公司反而最容易在这方面出问题,因为它的业务本身会自己运转下去。我是说,如果你卖的是人们每天都在购买的某种产品,哪怕你长期做出错误的决策,公司也能撑很久。这就是投资中会遇到的问题之一。至于 Tim Cook,我觉得他从一开始就非常、非常优秀。我们的大多数管理者都非常擅长处理较小的问题。但比如那些排山倒海般的重大问题,他们是无法预见到的。那是我的工作,或者说现在是 Greg 的工作。
P6353:27:38
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Yeah. Do you feel good about those holdings still? Have you met any of the new managers?
是的。你对那些持仓依然感觉良好吗?你见过任何新任管理者吗?
P6363:27:44
Warren BuffettChairman
Huh?
什么?
P6373:27:44
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
... of those businesses?
……那些企业的?
P6383:27:45
Warren BuffettChairman
No, I haven't met the old manager.
不,我连之前的老管理者都没见过。
P6393:27:48
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Of the new businesses, of the new CEOs that are coming in.
我是说那些新企业、那些即将上任的新 CEO。
P6403:27:51
Warren BuffettChairman
Well, I.
嗯,我——
P6413:27:51
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Tim Cook's replacement.
Tim Cook 的接任者。
P6423:27:53
Warren BuffettChairman
You know.
你知道的。
P6433:27:53
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
... Enrique at Coca-Cola
……Coca-Cola 的 Enrique。
P6443:27:54
Warren BuffettChairman
I certainly met the people at the labs.
我当然见过实验室里的人。
P6453:27:58
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Yeah
是的。
P6463:27:58
Warren BuffettChairman
did. I, you know, obviously I met Vicki. We made the deal.
见过的。我,你知道,显然我见过 Vicki。我们达成了那笔交易。
P6473:28:02
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Right.
对。
P6483:28:03
Warren BuffettChairman
I enjoy meeting the people. You can make mistakes with people. I mean, look at the divorce rate.
我喜欢与这些人见面。但你在看人方面是会犯错的。我是说,看看离婚率就知道了。
P6493:28:14
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Okay.
好吧。
P6503:28:14
Warren BuffettChairman
You know? That's more important than whether you got the right CEO or anything else.
你知道吗?那可比你是否选对了 CEO 或其他任何事情都更重要。
P6513:28:18
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Right.
没错。
P6523:28:19
Warren BuffettChairman
Now you've got years of trial. Back when I was young, you had to make the decision, you know, or you didn't have to make a decision, but a good many people made the decision when they were 20 or 21 that-
现在人们有好几年的磨合期。而在我年轻的时候,你必须做出决定,你知道,或者说你也不一定非要做决定,但很多人在 20 岁或 21 岁时就做出了决定——
P6533:28:31
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
To get married.
去结婚。
P6543:28:32
Warren BuffettChairman
Yeah, as they got married.
是的,他们就这样结婚了。
P6553:28:34
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Yeah.
是的。
P6563:28:34
Warren BuffettChairman
Now they spend five years and they still make the same mistakes.
现在他们先相处 5 年,却依然犯着同样的错误。
P6573:28:42
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
You think we're getting worse at our judgment in some instances?
你认为在某些情况下我们的判断力正在变差吗?
P6583:28:44
Warren BuffettChairman
Well, I don't know. It may be that people behave differently before the marriage than after. Who knows?
嗯,我不知道。也许是因为人们在婚前和婚后的表现不一样吧。谁知道呢?
P6593:28:48
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Yeah
是的。
P6603:28:48
Warren BuffettChairman
Exactly.
确实如此。
P6613:28:50
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Yeah.
是的。
P6623:28:51
Warren BuffettChairman
I would say that almost everybody feels either their marriage is better or worse than they anticipated a month after they were married. I, but I don't know which.
我想说,几乎每个人在结婚一个月后,都会觉得自己的婚姻要么比预期的更好,要么比预期的更糟。我,但我不知道到底是哪一种。
P6633:29:02
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Warren, let's talk a little bit about deepfakes because the deepfake Warren that popped up early-.
Warren,我们来聊聊深度伪造(deepfakes)吧,因为稍早之前冒出来的那个深度伪造的 Warren——
P6643:29:07
Warren BuffettChairman
Oh
哦。
P6653:29:07
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
in this session was pretty good. They had somebody standing up. You know, Greg was joking about it, but you know, the first question went to a guy from Warren up in the rafters who lives in Omaha. You've been concerned about some of these AI deepfakes and what that means for the world.
在这一节里的那个还挺逼真的。他们安排了一个人站起来。你知道,Greg 还在拿这事开玩笑,但你知道,第一个问题给了看台高处一位名叫 Warren、住在奥马哈的男士。你一直对其中一些 AI 深度伪造技术以及它对世界意味着什么感到担忧。
P6663:29:27
Warren BuffettChairman
Yeah, I would be concerned if everybody was. Well, actually, the worst thing would be to have a really good imitator of any president that came along. I mean, just imagine. Well, yeah, we had that famous thing before way back in New Jersey where they the Martians coming and everything like that.
是的,如果每个人都能被伪造,我会感到担忧。嗯,实际上,最糟糕的事情莫过于出现一个能极其逼真地模仿任何在任总统的人。我是说,想象一下。嗯,是的,我们以前很久以前在新泽西州就有过那件著名的事,当时人们以为火星人来了之类的。
P6673:29:50
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Oh, War of the Worlds.
哦,《世界大战》(War of the Worlds)。
P6683:29:50
Warren BuffettChairman
But-
但是——
P6693:29:51
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
... with Orson Welles.
……Orson Welles 播讲的那个。
P6703:29:51
Warren BuffettChairman
What you can do, well, if you convince, what people lend you money that, where they shouldn't, you shouldn't be borrowing it. I mean, it's scary, and it's particularly scary when you have nine countries or so with the nuclear weapons and people working on it, something even more. We haven't dealt with this. We don't know what's gonna happen.
你能用它做什么呢,嗯,如果你能骗过别人,让人们在不该借钱的地方借钱给你,而你本不该借这笔钱。我是说,这很可怕,尤其是当你看到有大约 9 个国家拥有核武器,而且还有人在研发某种甚至更厉害的东西时,这就格外可怕了。我们还没有应对过这种局面。我们不知道将会发生什么。
P6713:30:22
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Yeah. Let's circle back to Berkshire and the Berkshire of today. I think I was speaking with you yesterday or the day before, and we were talking a little bit about Greg Abel, and what a nice guy he is. You said.
是的。让我们回到 Berkshire 以及今天的 Berkshire。我想我是昨天或前天和你聊过,我们谈到了 Greg Abel,以及他人有多好。你说——
P6723:30:34
Warren BuffettChairman
He's a terrific guy.
他是个非常棒的人。
P6733:30:35
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
you said something interesting to me, though, about how you picked him and it wasn't because he was a nice guy. Why did you pick him?
不过你对我说了一件很有意思的事,关于你是怎么选中他的,而且原因并不是因为他是个老好人。你为什么选他?
P6743:30:44
Warren BuffettChairman
Well, he's very, very, very smart about businesses. Incidentally, he's getting his Canadian. I mean, he's getting his American citizenship here very soon, and he was going over with me all the things he had to learn about. I've actually spent a little time in the past with groups of individuals. Of course, my wife did, too, became an American citizen, and the things they have to learn about the Constitution and all these, and they're usually so proud when they become American citizens. I think I detected in Greg that, I mean, you know, as successful he's been and everything else, I mean, he is. It means something to him to become an American citizen.
嗯,他在商业方面非常、非常、非常聪明。顺便提一句,他正在办理他的加拿大——我是说,他很快就要在这里拿到他的美国公民身份了,而且他还跟我一起梳理了他必须学习的所有内容。过去我其实也花过一点时间跟一些人群交流过。当然,我妻子也是这样,成为了美国公民,他们必须学习关于宪法以及所有这些东西,而且当他们成为美国公民时,通常都感到无比自豪。我想我在 Greg 身上也察觉到了这一点,我是说,你知道,尽管他已经如此成功、拥有了一切,我是说,成为美国公民对他来说依然意义重大。
P6753:31:33
He sits there with his young son, and the son knows more about some of the answers to the questions that he may get asked or something about becoming a citizen. It's really interesting. Where else does that happen in the world? I mean, what people, America's special and it's a miracle what America's accomplished. I mean, it's just an absolute miracle. Yet the miracle, the division of the output and everything is about as inequitable that you could come up with, while at the same time, it's got these great attractions. There is some secret sauce. I've never been able to define it precisely.
他和他年幼的儿子坐在一起,对于他可能会被问到的一些问题或者关于入籍的一些事情,他儿子知道的答案甚至比他还多。这真的很有意思。世界上还有什么别的地方会发生这种事吗?我是说,美国是特别的,美国所取得的成就就是一个奇迹。我是说,这完完全全就是一个奇迹。然而在这个奇迹之中,产出的分配以及诸如此类的事情却几乎是你能想出的最不平等的,但与此同时,它又拥有这些巨大的吸引力。这里面有某种独门秘方。我从来没能精确地给它下定义。
P6763:32:31
When you run a country for 200 and something years and people want to come here every year, I mean, there's at least something about it. When Greg Abel was very, you know, is looking forward to becoming an American citizen, that means something to him, and you can't buy that anyplace or package it or, you know, it won't work for a Madison Avenue approach, you know, be an American or something like that. That feeling just goes. I, in my 95 years, I've seen it, you know, it's time after time. I felt good when I heard Greg just volunteer that in the last day or two to me that he was, he's up there for his final exams here pretty soon on becoming a citizen.
当你把一个国家运作了 200 多年,而每年都有人想要来到这里时,我是说,这里面至少肯定有某种特别之处。当 Greg Abel 非常,你知道,非常期待成为一名美国公民时,这对他来说是有意义的,而这种东西你在任何地方都买不到,也无法包装出来,或者说,你知道,靠麦迪逊大道那套广告推销手法喊一句“成为美国人吧”之类的是行不通的。那种情感是自然流露的。我,在我这 95 年的人生里,我见过它,你知道,一次又一次地看到。在前一两天,当听到 Greg 主动跟我提起他很快就要去参加入籍的最终考试时,我心里感觉特别好。
P6773:33:22
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
I didn't realize he wasn't a dual citizen already. I knew he was Canadian, but I thought he had dual citizenship.
我之前都没意识到他还没有双重国籍。我知道他是加拿大人,但我以为他早就拥有双重国籍了。
P6783:33:26
Warren BuffettChairman
He doesn't have a full, whatever the complete citizenship.
他还没有完全的——不管那个完整公民身份的——
P6793:33:30
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Yeah
是的。
P6803:33:30
Warren BuffettChairman
... requirement is, and you can say, "Why does he care?" I mean, he's gotten along fine without it here and everything, but he still wants to be a citizen.
……要求是什么,而且你可能会问:“他为什么在乎这个?”我是说,没有这个身份他在这里也一直过得很好,一切都很顺利,但他依然想要成为一名美国公民。
P6813:33:38
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Yeah. 250 years, we're celebrating our 250th anniversary.
是的。250 年了,我们正在庆祝建国 250 周年。
P6823:33:43
Warren BuffettChairman
Mm-hmm.
嗯。
P6833:33:44
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
You pointed out that you've been around for 95 of them. You think we have the special sauce that will continue in this country, or what do we need to do to preserve that?
你指出你在其中经历了 95 年。你认为我们拥有的这种独门秘方会在这个国家延续下去吗?或者我们需要做些什么来守护它——
P6843:33:51
Warren BuffettChairman
Yeah
是的。
P6853:33:51
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
make sure that it does continue?
——以确保它确实能延续下去?
P6863:33:53
Warren BuffettChairman
Yeah. We've got a special sauce.
是的。我们确实拥有独门秘方。
P6873:33:54
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Yeah.
是的。
P6883:33:54
Warren BuffettChairman
There, that, a secret sauce. It's such a good secret that I don't know what exactly it is. I do know this, that anybody that has a choice would choose to be in, born in America. I mean, you know, you can pick some very small little country, they're very happy that they're. Is this, is there any other country that everybody's, for couple hundred years, has wanted to emigrate to? I mean, it attracted some terrible people, you know, too. It worked. They had the Mafias from the different groups. Not just the Italian mafia, but all. I mean, it wasn't that they were all. We had some system for picking out the wonderful people from some other countries. It has worked.
那个独门秘方就在那里。这个秘方保密得太好了,以至于我都不清楚它到底是什么。但我确实知道一点:任何有选择权的人,都会选择出生在美国。我是说,你知道,你可以挑出某个非常小的国家,那里的人也很幸福。但还有任何别的国家,是几百年来所有人都想要移民过去的吗?我是说,它也吸引了一些糟糕的人,你知道的。但它依然运转得很好。不同群体里都有过黑手党(Mafia)。不只是意大利黑手党,而是各种群体都有。我是说,并不是说来的人全都是好人,也不是说我们有什么制度能专门从其他国家挑出优秀的人。但这一切就是奏效了。
P6893:34:54
It's worth the extremes to which it works, don't seem to belong to that kind of a society. I mean, if you were drawing up dreams for the ideal society, and you would have this kind of GDP per capita and everything, you wouldn't design the inheritance laws. I mean, you'd just do all kinds of things differently. Somehow it's worked. That doesn't mean that, we can't do better, I mean, at all.
它奏效的极端程度是值得深思的,有些东西看起来并不属于那样一个社会。我是说,如果你在构想理想社会的蓝图,并且希望拥有这样的人均 GDP 和一切成就,你绝不会像现在这样设计遗产税法。我是说,你会在方方面面采取截然不同的做法。但不知怎的,它就是奏效了。这完全不意味着我们不能做得更好。
P6903:35:37
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
You know, Warren, there are thousands of people, shareholders and partners of yours for decades in some cases, who are sitting out in this arena right now. I just wonder if there's a message you'd like to give to them, those who've been following you for years and who've been partners of yours for years.
你知道,Warren,现在有成千上万的人正坐在这个体育馆里,其中许多人是你的股东,有些甚至是你几十年的合伙人。我只是想知道,对于那些追随了你很多年、与你合伙了很多年的人,你有什么话想对他们说吗?
P6913:35:55
Warren BuffettChairman
The number one rule I'd give them is just, the, give them the Golden Rule, "Do unto others." You know, I'm not a religious guy, but I mean, nobody said it any better in, in a couple 1,000 years than that, which may be why it's lasted at a certain degree, too. I mean, it, you know, more people are reading a 2,000-year-old book about how to behave than anything that anybody's coming up with lately. Now, it's got a lot of, particularly the Old Testament, it's got different kinds of stories to some extent. If the whole world lived by the Golden Rule, it would be such a more wonderful society.
我想给他们的第 1 条法则是,就是给他们黄金法则(Golden Rule):“己所欲,施于人。”你知道,我不是一个宗教信徒,但我是说,在 1,000 多年甚至几千年的时间里,没有任何人把道理讲得比这句话更好,这或许也是为什么它在一定程度上能够流传至今的原因。我是说,你知道,去读一本 2,000 年前关于如何立身处世的书的人,比读最近任何人写出来的东西的人都要多。当然,那本书里有很多内容,尤其是《旧约》(Old Testament),在一定程度上有着各种各样不同的故事。但如果全世界都遵循黄金法则生活,那将会是一个美好得多的社会。
P6923:36:45
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Do unto others as you'd have them do unto you.
你们愿意人怎样待你们,你们也要怎样待人。
P6933:36:47
Warren BuffettChairman
Yeah. That's true for everything from parenthood to being a boss to being all, I mean, just everything in life, and it doesn't cost you anything. In fact, it's reflected in better behavior toward you. I mean, it's the very selfish sort of thing in a, in one sense. I've never seen anybody that's unhappy that behaved that way. I've seen a lot of people.
是的。无论是为人父母、当老板,还是做任何事,我是说,生活中的一切莫不如此,而且这不会花费你任何代价。事实上,它会反映在别人对你更好的态度上。我是说,从某种意义上讲,这甚至是一件非常有利于自己的事。我从未见过任何一个按照这种方式行事的人是不快乐的。我见过很多人——
P6943:37:18
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Mm-hmm
嗯。
P6953:37:19
Warren BuffettChairman
... in a lot of different kinds of situations.
……在各种各样不同的处境下都是如此。
P6963:37:22
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Warren, I want to thank you for taking this time to sit down with us today.
Warren,我想感谢你今天抽出时间坐下来和我们交流。
P6973:37:26
Warren BuffettChairman
Mm.
嗯。
P6983:37:26
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Warren Buffett, the Chairman of Berkshire Hathaway. Greg Abel is going to be taking the stage in just a moment, and you will see more from him in just a moment.
以上是 Berkshire Hathaway 董事长 Warren Buffett。Greg Abel 马上就要登台了,稍后大家会看到他带来更多内容。
P6993:37:42
Katie FarmerPresident and CEO
Okay. We're clear. We're a 177-year-old company, and if we didn't have in our DNA the ability to adapt and to evolve, we wouldn't be here today, and we wouldn't be relevant still in our customer supply chains. That adaptability and innovation and really putting the customer first is what we focus on. That's core to who we are. My name is Katie Farmer, and I'm President and CEO of BNSF Railway. I have had the pleasure of working alongside the 35,000 men and women of BNSF for going on 34 years now, and I've worked in almost every area of our company, which is how I came to lead BNSF as our CEO for the last five years. We have a long, rich history. We got our start as a six-mile railroad in the state of Illinois, a little railroad called the Aurora Branch.
好的,准备就绪。我们是一家拥有 177 年历史的公司,如果我们的基因里没有适应和进化的能力,我们今天就不会站在这里,也不会在客户的供应链中依然占据重要地位。这种适应力、创新精神以及真正把客户放在第一位,正是我们所专注的。这是我们的核心所在。我叫 Katie Farmer,是 BNSF Railway 的总裁兼首席执行官。我有幸与 BNSF 的 35,000 名男女员工并肩工作了将近 34 年,我几乎在公司的每一个领域都工作过,这也是为什么我在过去 5 年里能够作为首席执行官带领 BNSF。我们拥有悠久而丰富的历史。我们起步于伊利诺伊州一条 6 英里长的铁路,那是一条名叫 Aurora Branch 的小铁路。
P7003:38:48
Over time, that railroad grew into the Chicago, Burlington and Quincy Railroad, then we continued to stitch smaller railroads together to have a route from the Midwest all the way to the Pacific Northwest. We are made up of 390 predecessor railroads, some of those railroads actually connected with the Pony Express. Our trains were used to sort mail as the train moved across the tracks. That grew into the present-day BNSF Railway. We operate in 28 states and three Canadian provinces. Every year, we move somewhere between 9 and 10 million loads, we move everything from coal to agricultural commodities to building products, construction products, chemicals, our largest business segment is our intermodal business. Our intermodal business is the movement of trucks from the highway lifted on a container or trailer onto our railroad.
随着时间的推移,那条铁路发展成为芝加哥、伯灵顿和昆西铁路(Chicago, Burlington and Quincy Railroad),随后我们继续将多条较小的铁路拼接在一起,形成了一条从中西部一直延伸到太平洋西北地区的干线。我们由 390 家前身铁路公司组成,其中一些铁路实际上还曾与驿马快信制(Pony Express)相连接。当火车在铁轨上行驶时,人们就在我们的列车上分拣信件。这一切最终发展成为今天的 BNSF Railway。我们在美国 28 个州和加拿大 3 个省份开展业务。每年我们的货运量在 900 万到 1000 万车次(loads)之间,我们运输的货物包罗万象,从煤炭到农产品,再到建材产品、施工产品、化学品,而我们最大的业务板块是多式联运(intermodal)业务。我们的多式联运业务,就是把公路上的卡车货柜或拖车吊装到我们的铁路列车上进行运输。
P7013:39:50
We haul it the long portion of the route and then lift it off again from the train to over the road. To give you some perspective of the scope of what we move, of those 9 to 10 million units, over 5 million are intermodal. We're the industry leader in intermodal. We lift a container on or off our trains every 4 seconds, 24 by 7, 365 days a year. That just tells you a little bit about the scope of what we do and how we touch literally every part of the economy. Everything's foundational around safety for us. We're going to lead the industry in service. We're gonna continue to be productive and efficient. One of the things I'm excited about is the next 177 years.
我们负责长途干线段的水陆联运牵引,然后再把货柜从火车上卸下来,转回公路运输。为了让大家对我们的运输规模有个概念:在这 900 万到 1000 万个运输单位中,有超过 500 万个是多式联运。我们是多式联运领域的行业领导者。我们全年 365 天、每周 7 天、每天 24 小时不间断运转,平均每 4 秒钟就会将一个集装箱吊上或卸下火车。这足以让你稍微了解到我们的业务规模,以及我们如何真正触及经济生活的每一个角落。对我们而言,一切都建立在安全这一基石之上。我们要在服务上引领行业。我们将继续保持高产出和高效率。令我倍感振奋的事情之一,就是展望接下来的 177 年。
P7023:40:35
We're at a point now where we're looking at how do we build that spirit of building and innovation to our technology and our innovation efforts. We created BNSF Tech, which is a new division of BNSF, and it's really focused on taking that, moving from looking for commercial solutions and buying technology and speeding that process up and building internally. We hired a gentleman by the name of Hari Govind, who many of you know came from GEICO and has a long track record of going in and transforming and innovating. It's not about technology for technology's sake. It's about outcomes. How do we use technology to best position us for the future, to make us a safer railroad, to give the customers a better service product, to drive productivity and efficiency?
我们现在正处在一个关键节点,思考如何把那种开拓建设与创新的精神注入到我们的技术和创新工作中。我们成立了 BNSF Tech,这是 BNSF 的一个新部门,它真正专注于实现这一转变——从寻找商业化解决方案和外购技术,转向加快这一进程并进行内部自主研发。我们聘请了一位名叫 Hari Govind 的先生,在座许多人知道他来自 GEICO,并且在深入业务推动转型和创新方面拥有长期的成功记录。我们不是为了技术而搞技术,而是为了成果。我们如何利用技术让自己处于面向未来的最佳位置,让我们成为一条更安全的铁路,为客户提供更好的服务产品,并推动生产力和效率的提升?
P7033:41:25
I'm excited about the opportunities that we're gonna have going forward to really bring that spirit of building to our technology efforts. I go back to one of Warren's annual letters to the shareholders, and I remember he said that he believed that BNSF would not only be an asset for Berkshire, but an asset for our country 100 years from now. We take that responsibility very seriously, but we also really appreciate that that aligns well with the way that we have to think about our business. We make investments that are very long-term investments. Thinking about that in that longer timeframe is really important. Warren always challenges us to think about the businesses that we lead as if it were our own family's company.
对于未来的机遇,对于能够真正把那种开拓建设的精神带入我们的技术工作中,我感到非常兴奋。我回想起 Warren 写给股东的一封年度致股东信,我记得他在信中说,他相信在 100 年后,BNSF 不仅仍将是 Berkshire 的一项重要资产,也将是我们国家的一项重要资产。我们非常严肃地对待这份责任,但同时我们也十分感激,因为这种理念与我们思考自身业务的方式高度契合。我们所做的投资都是非常长期的投资。在那样一个更长的时间维度上去思考问题至关重要。Warren 总是激励我们,要把自己所领导的企业当作自己家族的公司一样去思考。
P7043:42:20
You know, I've worked for BNSF since I was 20 years old, so thinking about BNSF as if it's my family's company is not a big stretch for me. I love that perspective of thinking about, how do I make sure that I'm passing this company on so as if it were a family company for the next 100 years to those who will come after us? With Greg is great to help focus on execution and making sure that every day you're making that business your family's business. You're making it better. We are very honored to be a part of the Berkshire Hathaway family. We understand the responsibility that we have, which is to operate every single day with the highest ethical standards and deliver value for the shareholder.
你知道,我从 20 岁起就在 BNSF 工作,所以把 BNSF 当成我自己家族的公司来思考,对我来说完全是自然而然的事。我非常喜欢这种视角——去思考我该如何确保把这家公司像家族企业一样传承下去,交到未来 100 年的后来者手中?与 Greg 共事对于聚焦执行力非常有帮助,能确保你每一天都把这项业务当作自己的家族企业来经营,让它变得更好。我们非常荣幸能成为 Berkshire Hathaway 大家庭的一员。我们明白自己肩负的责任,那就是每一天都以最高的道德标准开展运营,并为股东创造价值。
P7053:43:11
I want the shareholders to know that we have 35,000 proud railroaders who come to work every single day and focus on those 2 things.
我想让股东们知道,我们有 35,000 名自豪的铁路人,他们每一天来上班都专注于这 2 件事。
P7063:43:33
Greg AbelPresident and CEO
Welcome back. I hope you enjoyed the break. Becky, Warren, thank you for that exceptional interview. Appreciate that. Katie and Adam, great to have you on stage. I would note both the videos were extremely well done in that it gives us a great understanding of your businesses, but also you as leaders. I'm just gonna start with a question for each of you, then we'll go to the back to the question and answer. I think, Katie, Well, I know you did. You heard me speaking earlier. I talked to our owners and shareholders around our operating performance and where we are. Highlighted we were in fifth of sixth last year. We've now moved to fourth, and we need to see. We also talked about needing significant improvement, a step change.
欢迎回来。希望大家刚才休息得愉快。Becky、Warren,感谢你们带来那场精彩绝伦的访谈,非常感谢。Katie 和 Adam,很高兴请两位来到台上。我想指出,刚才那两段视频都制作得非常出色,不仅让我们深入理解了你们的业务,也让我们更了解作为领导者的你们。我先向两位各提一个问题,然后我们就回到现场问答环节。我想,Katie,嗯,我知道你刚才听到了我的发言。我向我们的所有者和股东谈到了我们的运营表现以及我们目前所处的位置。我强调了去年我们在 6 家公司中排在第 5 名,现在我们已经升到了第 4 名,而且我们还需要继续见证改变。我们还谈到了需要取得重大改进,实现台阶式的跃升。
P7073:44:36
The one thing I didn't really touch on is I started talking about the getting to that next level. As you touched on, you have 35,000 employees, and to move the organization to look externally and recognize where do we go, how do you take on that challenge?
有一点我刚才没怎么展开讲,就是关于如何迈上那个新台阶。正如你所提到的,你有 35,000 名员工,要推动整个组织向外看并认清我们的前进方向,你是如何应对这一挑战的?
P7083:44:57
Katie FarmerPresident and CEO
Yeah. Thank you, Greg, first of all, thank you for the opportunity to speak today and talk about our great company. It's a pleasure to do that, Greg, thank you. You know, we absolutely recognize that it's important for us to run an efficient operation, to have a competitive cost structure, and to continue to further close the gap between us and our competitors. You know, we have an exceptional leadership team in place that understands the importance of aligning the entire organization, as you said, Greg, the 35,000 men and women of BNSF, aligning them around that operational excellence. You saw that we made progress, as Greg said, in 2025. We continued to make progress in the first quarter of 2026, we know that we have more work to be done to drive that operational excellence across all areas of our company.
好的。谢谢你,Greg。首先,感谢今天能有这个机会发言并介绍我们伟大的公司。非常荣幸能这样做,Greg,谢谢你。你知道,我们完全认识到,保持高效运营、拥有具竞争力的成本结构,以及继续进一步缩小我们与竞争对手之间的差距,对我们来说至关重要。你知道,我们拥有一支优秀的领导团队,他们深知让整个组织保持目标一致的重要性——正如你所说,Greg,让 BNSF 的 35,000 名男女员工都围绕卓越运营这一目标对齐。大家看到,正如 Greg 所言,我们在 2025 年取得了进展。在 2026 年第一季度,我们继续取得进展,但我们也清楚,要在公司各个领域全面推动卓越运营,我们还有更多工作要做。
P7093:45:56
Greg AbelPresident and CEO
Thank you, Katie. Adam, when I was discussing your new role, and thank you for taking on that role and also retaining your role at NetJets as the CEO there. A lot on your plate and all of us here appreciate that. It's early going. You've been in the role since December as the President of Consumer Products and then Service and Retailing. What are your observations as your early observations across the 32 companies, and how are you approaching that?
谢谢你,Katie。Adam,刚才我谈到了你的新职务,感谢你挑起这副重担,同时还继续担任 NetJets 的首席执行官。你肩上的担子很重,我们大家都很感激。现在还处于起步阶段,你从去年 12 月起开始担任消费品、服务与零售业务总裁。对于这 32 家公司,你早期的观察是什么?你又是如何开展这项工作的?
P7103:46:36
Adam JohnsonPresident of Consumer Products, Service and Retailing; CEO of NetJets
Yeah, talking to the different CEOs. I, if you give me just 1 second before I answer, I just want to make just 1 brief comment. Really to both Warren and Greg. I have been CEO of NetJets for the last 10 years, but I've been with NetJets, this is my 30th year there. Only at Berkshire could you feel like the new kid on the block after being here for 30 years. you know, Warren has taught us a lot, Charlie's taught us a lot, Greg's taught me a lot. One of the things that they've said over and over is that, "Hey, bad news takes the elevator and good news takes the stairs." I really understood that many, many years ago. Until I became CEO, I found myself on the elevator a few times.
是的,我和不同的 CEO 们都进行了交流。在我回答之前,如果能给我 1 秒钟,我只想先发表 1 点简短的感言,主要是对 Warren 和 Greg 说的。我在过去 10 年里一直担任 NetJets 的首席执行官,但我加入 NetJets 今年已经是第 30 个年头了。大概只有在 Berkshire,你待了 30 年之后还觉得自己像个新来的小子。你知道,Warren 教了我们很多,Charlie 教了我们很多,Greg 也教了我很多。他们反反复复说过的一句话就是:“嘿,坏消息坐电梯,好消息走楼梯。”早在很多很多年前,我就深刻理解了这句话。在成为首席执行官之前以及之后,我有好几次都发现自己坐上了那部电梯。
P7113:47:23
What they never told me was what happens after you get on that elevator. I just wanna point out, as the CEO for the last 10 years, there's been many times I've had to make calls on things. We run a big business and I simply wanna say that what happens after that is you have the most unconditional support, and I echo all the CEOs that are in this portfolio. I just wanna say thank you for that because it's not easy delivering sometimes good or bad news, but it's been phenomenal support.
但他们从来没提前告诉过我的是,当你坐上那部电梯之后会发生什么。作为过去 10 年的首席执行官,我只想指出,有很多次我都不得不就一些事情打电话汇报。我们经营着一家大企业,我只想说,在那之后你所得到的是最无条件的支持,而且我相信这个投资组合里的所有 CEO 都有同感。我只想对此表示感谢,因为有时候不管是汇报好消息还是坏消息都不容易,但我们始终得到了极其强大的支持。
P7123:47:53
As it relates to the actual, the other 31 CEOs in our bucket, I have to sort of start with conversation with NetJets because people have been asking me a lot in the last 5 months, "So you're still CEO of NetJets, but how are you gonna take on this other role?" I think the journey starts with the team at NetJets, and many of them are here, and they're incredible. I spent a lot of time over the last 10 plus years with them. I sat up in that stage in the arena in May of 2010, and it was a hard thing to hear, but it was the truth.
至于我们这个板块里的另外 31 位 CEO,我得先从关于 NetJets 的对话说起,因为在过去 5 个月里,很多人都在问我:“既然你仍然是 NetJets 的首席执行官,那你打算怎么兼顾这个新职务呢?”我认为这段旅程始于 NetJets 的团队,他们中的许多人今天也在现场,他们非常了不起。在过去 10 多年的时间里,我与他们共度了无数时光。2010 年 5 月,我曾坐在这个体育馆的看台上,当时听到的话虽然刺耳,但却是事实。
P7133:48:28
Warren talked about NetJets and stated that it was his toughest mistake that year, and but for the backing of Berkshire, that we would have been bankrupt. I don't like repeating those words, and probably shouldn't do it in front of an entire room, but it's an important pause because then you have two choices, what are you gonna go do? The team that's sitting with me today and many people back home, I do think we have a wonderful company, as Warren talked about with Charlie in 2023. I just wanna say to them, thank you, because it's been a rough road to do that, and we've accomplished a lot. Which gets me in to answer your question. I, you know, I'll be honest with you.
当时 Warren 谈到 NetJets,说那是他那一年最惨痛的错误,而且如果不是有 Berkshire 在背后支撑,我们早就破产了。我并不喜欢重复这些话,也许更不该当着满屋子人的面重提,但这是一个重要的停顿时刻,因为接下来你面临 2 个选择:你打算怎么做?今天和我坐在一起的团队以及留守后方的许多同仁,我认为我们确实打造了一家优秀的公司,正如 Warren 在 2023 年与 Charlie 一起谈到的那样。我只想对他们说声谢谢,因为走到今天是一条坎坷的路,而我们取得了许多成就。这就引出了我对你问题的回答。我,你知道,我跟你说实话吧。
P7143:49:08
Thank God I have NetJets because I was able to fly around and see a lot of these companies. Unfortunately, all 31 companies are not based out of Columbus, Ohio. I've been on our airplanes a lot. If I'm honest, I was a little concerned about it. Many of the CEOs had reported directly to Warren. All of them reported to Berkshire. Here comes this guy, you know, that they're now gonna be working with. I will tell you, one of the things that struck me is how wise the CEOs are. They have the energy, intelligence, integrity that Warren always talks about. I say wise because of my concerns were quickly allayed when I started talking to them in the sense that they've been listening.
感谢上帝我有 NetJets,因为这样我就能飞到各地去拜访这其中的许多公司。遗憾的是,这 31 家公司并不都设在俄亥俄州的哥伦布市。所以我经常搭乘我们的飞机出行。坦白讲,一开始我对此还有点担心。许多 CEO 以前都是直接向 Warren 汇报的,他们全都向 Berkshire 汇报。而现在突然来了这么一个人,你知道,接下来要和他们打交道。但我要告诉大家,最打动我的一点就是这些 CEO 们是多么充满智慧。他们具备 Warren 经常提到的充沛精力、才智和诚信。我之所以说他们充满智慧,是因为当我开始与他们交谈时,我的顾虑很快就打消了——因为他们一直在用心倾听。
P7153:49:54
I know many in this room don't know the names of those 31 other CEOs, but they know you, and they've been listening. They absolutely understand the playbook that is the Owner's Manual. By the way, this is the almost today, the thirtieth anniversary Warren wrote the Owner's Manual, and in that was sort of our business Bible on what we needed to do. I was really pleased every one of our CEOs understands that. They've been living that, and that's gonna make the interaction much easier for me. I feel really good. I feel really good about the form of the CEOs that we have, and I know that they have ingrained in them the culture.
我知道在座的许多人并不知道那另外 31 位 CEO 的名字,但他们认识你们,而且他们一直在倾听。他们完全理解《所有者手册》(Owner's Manual)这本行动指南。顺便提一句,今天差不多正是 Warren 撰写《所有者手册》30 周年的日子,那本手册就像是指导我们应该做什么的商业圣经。我非常高兴地看到,我们的每一位 CEO 都理解这一点。他们一直在践行这一理念,这将使我与他们的互动变得容易得多。我感觉非常好。我对我们现有的 CEO 阵容状态感觉非常好,而且我知道这种文化已经深深植根于他们心中。
P7163:50:35
Part of the culture certainly is the ownership thinking, but the stewardship that is talked about, we feel a massive and deep responsibility to carry on the stewardship and the legacy of Charlie and Warren and work really hard for Greg and his team. I feel good about it.
这种文化的一部分当然是主人翁思维,但大家常谈到的还有受托责任(stewardship)——我们感到肩负着巨大而深沉的责任,要把 Charlie 和 Warren 的受托精神与传承延续下去,并为 Greg 和他的团队全力以赴地工作。我对此感觉非常好。
P7173:50:54
Greg AbelPresident and CEO
Great. Well, we're very fortunate to have Katie and Adam in these leadership roles. It was a very purposeful to have them on stage. We want them to have the opportunity to engage with our owners, our shareholders, and we really do look forward to the questions. Thank you for joining us on stage again. Yeah, thank you. Becky, again, great to have you back. Thank you for that interview, if you'd like to start. Thank you.
太好了。嗯,我们非常幸运能有 Katie 和 Adam 担任这些领导职务。请他们来到台上是非常有意的安排。我们希望让他们有机会与我们的所有者、我们的股东进行交流,而且我们确实非常期待接下来的提问。再次感谢两位来到台上。好的,谢谢你们。Becky,再次欢迎你回来,感谢你刚才的访谈,请开始提问吧。谢谢。
P7183:51:26
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Okay, thanks, Greg. This question comes from Chris Freed in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, who wants to know: How has the current geopolitical situation in the Middle East impacted Berkshire's subsidiaries?
好的,谢谢你,Greg。这个问题来自宾夕法尼亚州费城的 Chris Freed,他想知道:当前中东的地缘政治局势对 Berkshire 的子公司产生了怎样的影响?
P7193:51:41
Greg AbelPresident and CEO
Sure. I'll touch on it and then I'll make sure, 'cause it impacts really in a variety of ways all our businesses. What I'm most proud of are our businesses. We operate these businesses for the long run, just like we do for, obviously for our shareholders. We take a long-term approach. There's not many days, and I used to joke when I more had Adam's role, there wasn't a day I woke up where the phone wasn't ringing with good news. You know, that phone rang. You knew you were gonna have a bit of a challenge, and we have that portfolio. That's okay. We'd be talking, we always worked our way through it. We have a team that would lean in, and we'd come through, and it could be anything.
好的。我先谈谈这个问题,然后再请他们补充,因为它确实以各种各样的方式影响着我们所有的业务。最让我感到自豪的就是我们的这些企业。我们是以长期的眼光来经营这些企业的,这显然就像我们为股东服务一样。我们采取的是长期方针。在我的印象里,特别是以前我承担更多类似 Adam 现在的职责时,我常开玩笑说,没有哪一天早上醒来电话铃响起是为了报告好消息的。你知道,只要电话一响,你就知道自己要面对一点挑战了,因为我们拥有这样一个庞大的业务组合。但那没关系。我们会进行沟通,而且我们总能设法渡过难关。我们有一支会迎难而上的团队,无论遇到什么情况,我们都能挺过来。
P7203:52:26
We never tried to use that as a reason we couldn't do something or get to the right place. What I've seen associated with the obviously the war in Iran and the various conflicts in the Middle East is, again, a team that is very much taking the approach that that's the situation we're in. We can manage our business, we very much quickly move to what's the best solution for our customers? How can we deliver and continue to deliver what we've done to them, and what's their expectations around that? Our teams will work incredibly hard to come up with solutions. I touched on LSPI, the drag reduction agent on the pipeline company. They don't usually sell a lot of product into the Middle East as far as moving.
我们从不试图把那当作借口,说我们因此做不成某件事或达不到理想的目标。关于显然正在发生的伊朗战争以及中东的各种冲突,我所看到的依然是:我们的团队非常坚定地采取务实态度——这就是我们所处的现实处境。我们能够管理好自己的业务,我们会极其迅速地转向思考:对我们的客户来说,什么是最佳解决方案?我们如何能够交付并继续交付我们一直为他们提供的产品与服务?他们对此又有着怎样的期望?我们的团队会极其努力地工作以拿出解决方案。我之前提到过 LSPI,那家生产管道减阻剂(drag reduction agent)的公司。就常规运输而言,他们通常并不向中东销售太多产品。
P7213:53:20
It's more a domestic-based product for Canada and the U.S. when you think of a drag reduction agent on pipelines. Literally being cargo planes of that chemical being moved in the Middle East to help free up supply and i.e. remove that some of that constraint. There's so many things that go on when they start trying to figure out how to solve the challenge. What I would say is it doesn't mean there's not immediate impacts to our businesses. If you think of companies in America or around the globe, petroleum and natural gas matter is such a fundamental input to so many products.
当你想到管道减阻剂时,它更多是一种面向加拿大和美国本土市场的产品。但现在,一架架货运飞机正把那种化学品运往中东,以帮助释放供应能力,也就是消除一部分产能瓶颈。当他们开始设法解决挑战时,像这样的行动还有很多很多。我想说的是,这并不意味着我们的业务没有受到直接的冲击。如果你想想美国乃至全球的企业,石油和天然气是如此多产品最基础的原材料投入。
P7223:54:03
The reality is, if you think, I touched on our chemical group, their input is generally a petroleum product, and the output is the various products they produce, obviously, that are byproducts of that. Their input costs have effectively doubled in a very short period of time.
现实情况是,如果你想想我之前提到的化工集团,他们的原材料投入通常是石油产品,而产出则是他们生产的各种衍生产品。在很短的时间内,他们的原材料投入成本实际上已经翻了一番。
P7233:54:27
Katie FarmerPresident and CEO
Mm-hmm.
嗯。
P7243:54:27
Greg AbelPresident and CEO
Again, we'll manage through that, and that's the beauty of being part of Berkshire. They know first we'll take care of our customer, we'll find the right answer, we'll manage the challenges, and the value creation will be there in the end. There's some short-term pressure on our chemical businesses. If you looked at their first quarter profits individually, they would be down or flat to down because they've got some challenges, for example, on the input side. They're delivering what the customer needs, and that rebalances over a period of time where our prices will move up pursuant to our contracts. We'll be treated fairly in the end in that they'll reset and then may unwind a little bit slower.
同样,我们会妥善应对这一切,而这正是作为 Berkshire 一分子的美妙之处。他们知道,我们首先会照顾好客户,我们会找到正确的解决办法,我们会管控好挑战,而最终的价值创造自然会随之而来。我们的化工业务目前确实面临一些短期压力。如果你单独看他们第一季度的利润,由于在原材料投入端等方面遇到了一些挑战,他们的利润会出现下滑,或者持平至下滑。但他们依然在交付客户所需的产品,随着时间推移,当我们的价格根据合同规定向上调整时,这种局面就会重新恢复平衡。最终我们会得到公平的回报,价格会重新设定,之后回落的速度或许也会慢一些。
P7253:55:08
The point is, unfortunate situation, we've got, you know, men of service and women of service over there putting themselves at risk. That in itself is scary because a lot of our employees have family involved. You know, as far as running our businesses, it's really heads down. We'll get through this, and we'll keep operating everything for the long run. Again, it includes how we'll operate our assets. We're not gonna put the asset at risk to try to get to a short-term outcome because a petroleum price is higher or petroleum prices are high. It's very much continuing to take that long-term perspective. Katy, obviously it can impact demand and what's being brought in on the coast.
重点在于,这是一个不幸的局势,我们有男女军人在那边冒着生命危险服役。这本身就令人揪心,因为我们很多员工都有家人参与其中。但你知道,就经营我们的企业而言,我们真正能做的就是埋头苦干。我们会度过难关,并且会继续着眼于长远来运营一切业务。这同样包括我们如何运作我们的资产。我们绝不会因为石油价格上涨或油价处于高位,就为了追求短期结果而让资产去冒风险。我们始终坚持那种长远的视角。Katie,这显然也会影响到需求以及沿海港口的进口货运情况。
P7263:56:02
Are you seeing that, or what else are your observations?
你看到这种迹象了吗?或者你还有什么其他的观察?
P7273:56:05
Katie FarmerPresident and CEO
It's interesting, and Warren has said this in the past before. You know, the railroad is a really good reflection of what's happening in the industrial and the consumer economies because our loadings really cut across all the various commodities. You know, we touch agricultural products. We touch coal, the industrial commodities like cement and steel and aggregates. You know, certainly our intermodal business, which is such a big part of our business, reflects what's going on with the consumer. We're seeing the impact from the conflict in the Middle East in 2 different ways. First of all, I would say that if you look across our various commodities, it's created an opportunity for some of those commodities just because of the disruption in the supply chain.
这很有意思,而且 Warren 过去也曾说过这一点。你知道,铁路是工业经济和消费经济运行状况的一个非常好的缩影,因为我们的货运装载量真正横跨了所有各类大宗商品。你知道,我们触及农产品,触及煤炭,以及像水泥、钢铁和砂石骨料这样的工业大宗商品。当然,占据我们业务很大比重的多式联运业务,则直接反映了消费者层面的动态。我们从 2 个不同的方面看到了中东冲突带来的影响。首先我想说,如果你纵览我们的各类大宗商品,由于供应链中断,这反而为其中一些大宗商品创造了机会。
P7283:56:50
In addition to that, you know, we see commodities like aggregates and steel, things like that are favorable. We're seeing an increase in those. Some of the commodity areas that use energy in the manufacturing of those commodities are certainly being impacted by the increasing fuel prices.
除此之外,你知道,我们看到像砂石骨料和钢铁这类大宗商品的表现是向好的,我们看到这些品类的货运量有所增加。而那些在生产制造过程中需要消耗大量能源的大宗商品领域,则无疑正在受到燃油价格上涨的冲击。
P7293:57:10
Greg AbelPresident and CEO
Mm-hmm.
嗯。
P7303:57:11
Katie FarmerPresident and CEO
The largest segment of our business, as I mentioned, is intermodal. As fuel prices increase, our intermodal business becomes more competitive. We're seeing an increase there relative to what's happening in the Middle East. I would say in general, though, as we think about it, if fuel prices stay too high for too long, it has an impact on consumer demand. When that happens, that cuts across all of our businesses.
正如我刚才提到的,我们最大的业务板块是多式联运。随着燃油价格上涨,我们的多式联运业务变得更具竞争力。因此,与中东局势相关联,我们在这一块看到了货运量的增长。不过总体而言,按照我们的思考,如果燃油价格在过长时间内维持在过高水平,就会对消费者需求产生冲击。一旦发生这种情况,影响就会波及我们所有的业务。
P7313:57:38
Greg AbelPresident and CEO
Have you started to see that yet? Obviously when you think of I touched on it being an input to many of our companies, but really globally it's an input to so many things. As that price pressure moves up, obviously the demand side is challenged. Are you seeing that yet?
你现在已经开始看到这种迹象了吗?显然,当你想到我刚才提到的它是我们许多公司的原材料投入时,其实在全球范围内它都是太多东西的基础投入。随着这种价格压力上升,需求端显然会面临挑战。你已经看到这种情况了吗?
P7323:57:56
Katie FarmerPresident and CEO
Yeah, we're seeing that impact some of the businesses. I would also say, Greg, as we talk to some of our large intermodal customers, what they are telling us, some of the big retailers are that customers are having to make choices now. As fuel prices go up, they make choices about what they're buying. That's where I get back to if it is a prolonged higher fuel price environment, I do believe that we will see that customer impact across our businesses.
是的,我们已经看到这开始影响其中一些业务了。Greg,我还想补充一点,当我们与一些大型多式联运客户交流时,其中一些大型零售商告诉我们,消费者现在不得不做出取舍了。随着燃油价格上涨,他们在购买什么商品上必须有所取舍。这就是为什么我刚才说,如果高油价环境持续很长时间,我确实相信我们会在各项业务中普遍看到这种来自客户层面的影响。
P7333:58:26
Greg AbelPresident and CEO
Thank you. Adam, across your businesses, what are you seeing? What are you feeling?
谢谢你。Adam,在你负责的各项业务中,你看到了什么?感受到了什么?
P7343:58:34
Adam JohnsonPresident of Consumer Products, Service and Retailing; CEO of NetJets
Yeah, I mean, certainly, you know, when you see the increases that have occurred and the instant spikes in some cases that occurred, certainly on the consumer product side, on the retail side, it has affected some of the demand on that side. I would also tell you that we have also faced multiple times at NetJets with a hundred
是的,我是说,当你看到已经发生的价格上涨,以及在某些情况下出现的瞬间飙升时,在消费品端和零售端,这无疑已经影响到了一部分需求。我还可以告诉你,在 NetJets,我们也曾多次面对过 100——
P7353:58:58
You know, $100 a barrel pricing. We see those spikes, we see I haven't seen it on the NetJets side. We went from really the last 2 years from about $5 to $5.40 a gallon. We're seeing spikes up to $7 a gallon. I would tell you if I see that kind of sitting at $7.25, $7.50 a gallon, you'll see it start impacting even on the higher end side on the NetJets side. We're feeling it. It's, you know, it's not the first time we've had to deal with this. You know, we're prepared to deal with those things and make adjustments where we need to. It certainly is affecting, I would say, some of the retail businesses and some of the consumer product businesses.
你知道,每桶 100 美元的油价。我们看到过那些价格飙升,虽然目前在 NetJets 这一端我还没有看到需求受损。在过去 2 年里,我们的航油价格大约从每加仑 5 美元涨到了 5.40 美元。而现在我们看到价格飙升到了每加仑 7 美元。我可以告诉你,如果我看到航油价格稳定在每加仑 7.25 美元、7.50 美元的水平,你就会看到它甚至开始对 NetJets 这样偏高端的业务产生影响。我们已经感受到了压力。你知道,这并不是我们第一次不得不应对这种情况。我们已做好准备去处理这些问题,并在需要的地方做出调整。但我可以说,它目前确实正在影响一部分零售业务和一部分消费品业务。
P7363:59:36
Greg AbelPresident and CEO
Great. Thank you, Adam, and thank you, Becky, for the question. We'll now move to station 5.
太好了。谢谢你,Adam,也谢谢 Becky 提出这个问题。现在我们转到 5 号提问区。
P7373:59:46
Manjap SinghShareholder, Shareholder (California)
Good afternoon. Manjap Singh from Mountain House, California. Warren has spoken very highly of both you, Greg and Katie, so I'm grateful to have you both leading our company, I'd like to ask each of you a question. Greg, as you know, the Berkshire system relies on decentralization. Each manager runs their own subsidiary. As CEO, which operating units do you think need more oversight, how will you handle a manager who underperforms? Katie, as Greg highlighted, BNSF's profitability lags its competitors. With eventual technology advancements in autonomous driving, trucking costs will continue to drop. How will BNSF maintain its competitive advantage from competitors and new technology?
下午好。我是来自加利福尼亚州芒廷豪斯(Mountain House)的 Manjap Singh。Warren 对你们两位——Greg 和 Katie——都给予了极高的评价,所以我很感激能有你们两位带领我们的公司,我想向你们每人提一个问题。Greg,如你所知,Berkshire 的体系依赖于分权模式,每位经理人各自经营旗下的子公司。作为首席执行官,你认为哪些业务部门需要更多的监督?你又将如何处理表现不佳的经理人?Katie,正如 Greg 所强调的,BNSF 的盈利能力落后于竞争对手。随着未来自动驾驶技术的进步,卡车运输成本将继续下降。面对竞争对手和新技术,BNSF 将如何保持自身的竞争优势?
P7384:00:58
Greg AbelPresident and CEO
Great. Thank you. Associated with the letter I wrote to all of you as owners, I highlighted some important, as I've touched on, values. One of them was our decentralized model. I also touched on risk discipline, capital allocation. When we think of our businesses, we have an exceptional group of leaders and businesses. Yes, they do own their businesses. As Katie touched on it in her video, as Adam alluded to it and talked about it, there is a great deal of ownership in each of our across each of our subsidiaries, and that's absolutely how we'll continue to operate and see it as an extremely effective model. They're closest to their customers. They understand what needs to be done, and if they think like an owner, we get very good outcomes across the group of companies.
太好了,谢谢你。在我写给各位所有者的信中,正如我刚才提到的,我强调了一些重要的价值观。其中之一就是我们的分权模式。我还谈到了风险纪律和资本配置。谈到我们的企业,我们拥有一批极其优秀的领导者和企业。是的,他们确实像主人一样管理着各自的企业。正如 Katie 在她的视频中所谈到的,也正如 Adam 所提及和讲述的那样,在我们旗下的每一家子公司中都存在着极强的主人翁意识,这绝对是我们未来继续运营的方式,而且我们认为这是一种极其有效的模式。他们离自己的客户最近,他们明白需要做什么,只要他们像所有者一样思考,我们就能在整个企业集团中获得非常好的结果。
P7394:02:00
I would highlight, though, that with a decentralized model, we do not take responsibility, and I was one of those. I ran BHE. It's a great set of responsibilities where Berkshire Hathaway Energy. Shouldn't be abbreviating, sorry. When I ran it, that autonomy meant you embraced it, and there was a great amount of accountability that came with it and sheer pride that you wanted to do things right. We've got a clear set of, when we talk about integrity and how I started it, we have a lot of expectations, and that's where both on the, on the integrity, how they approach managing their business and servicing their customers, and I've said there's a lot of external factors we can observe.
不过我要强调的是,实行分权模式并不意味着我们不承担责任,我自己就曾是其中一员。我曾管理过 BHE——那里有一系列重大的责任,也就是 Berkshire Hathaway Energy,抱歉我不该用缩写的。当年我管理它的时候,那种自主权意味着你要主动拥抱它,随之而来的是沉甸甸的问责与担当,以及一种想要把事情做好的纯粹自豪感。当我们谈到诚信以及我是如何开篇论述它时,我们有着一套明确的——我们抱有很高的期望,这既体现在诚信方面,也体现在他们如何管理企业以及如何服务客户上,而且我说过,有很多外部因素是我们可以观察到的。
P7404:02:55
Our primary engagement is with their, are they managing the risk and foremost? Do they see themselves as that chief risk officer you've heard us discuss many times? Are they good allocators of capital with the capital they have there? 'Cause even capital, you have to manage your operating expense as well. I view everything, you know, that when we're spending money, it may be a capital expenditure, it can be an operating expenditure. You're deploying our shareholders' capital. Are we doing that well? We focus on that. That's part of that equation of allocation capital. The reality is if we're seeing a situation where we're underperforming or we're seeing some potentially poor decisions, that's where we engage and have a discussion.
我们与他们的首要互动在于:他们是否把风险管理放在第一位?他们是否将自己视为你们听我们多次讨论过的那种“首席风险官”?对于留在他们那里的资本,他们是否是优秀的资本配置者?因为即便是资本管理,你也同样必须管理好你的营业费用。在我看来,当我们花钱时,那既可能是资本开支,也可能是营业费用。你是在配置我们股东的资本。我们做得好不好?我们非常关注这一点。这是资本配置这一等式的一部分。现实情况是,如果我们看到某个业务表现不佳,或者看到一些可能欠妥的决策,那就是我们会介入并进行探讨的时候。
P7414:03:45
Usually it's relative, and I touched a bit on this with Katie. It's relative to what we see externally and just really trying to understand where our performance gaps are and then it quickly moves to how and we don't have the people at corporate to go in and quote, help. So it's not like we send in an army. There's generally some people within our subsidiaries or maybe someone we know that could help them with that, with that performance gap. 'Cause we do treasure continuous improvement and strongly, as you've heard, believe in operational excellence. There's as I've said, there's room for us to get better, and that's how we would approach the situations where we see the gap and need to close it. Katie, maybe you can probably touch on both.
通常这种评估是相对而言的,刚才我和 Katie 也稍微谈到了这一点。它是相对于我们在外部看到的同行表现而言的,目的是真正搞清楚我们的绩效差距在哪里,然后迅速转向如何解决——而且我们总部并没有一批人可以派下去搞所谓的“帮扶”。所以我们不会派一支大军过去。通常在我们的子公司内部会有一些人,或者也许是我们认识的某个人,能够协助他们解决那个绩效差距。因为我们非常珍视持续改进,而且正如大家所听到的,我们坚定地信奉卓越运营。正如我所说,我们还有进步的空间,每当我们看到差距并需要缩小差距时,我们都会采取这样的方式去应对。Katie,也许你可以把两个方面都谈一谈。
P7424:04:34
Adam JohnsonPresident of Consumer Products, Service and Retailing; CEO of NetJets
Absolutely. Thank you for the question. As I said, we absolutely know that it's critically important that we continue to drive an efficient operation, that we continue to have a competitive cost structure, and that we continue to close the gap with our competitor relative to our profitability. There's a couple of specific things that we're working on, and it's really about operationalizing the improvement that we saw in 2 in 2025 into the first quarter of 2026 and making sure that we're really institutionalizing that.
当然可以。谢谢你的提问。正如我所说,我们非常清楚,继续推动高效运营、继续保持具竞争力的成本结构,以及在盈利能力上继续缩小与竞争对手的差距,对我们而言至关重要。我们正在推进几项具体工作,核心就是把我们在 2——在 2025 年直至 2026 年第一季度所取得的改进真正落实到日常运营中,并确保将其真正制度化。
P7434:05:07
Katie FarmerPresident and CEO
The first thing that we really focused on in 2025 was we knew that we needed to improve our single car operational efficiency. When I say single car unit operational efficiency, we run a couple of different networks. We run our intermodal network, we run our agricultural and our coal network, our bulk networks. The balance of it is what we call our carload network or our single car network. That's where we have non-unit train. It takes a lot of operational focus, it takes a lot of work effort, and it consumes a lot of resources. Anything you do to improve that single car network is good for all of your customers. It frees up resources, it creates capacity. It allows you to handle the same amount of volume, if not more, with fewer assets.
我们在 2025 年真正重点抓的第一件事,就是我们清楚自己需要提高单车(single car)运营效率。当我说单车作业运营效率时,是指我们运营着好几张不同的运输网络:我们运营多式联运网络,运营农产品和煤炭网络,也就是散货(bulk)网络;而其余部分就是我们所说的整车货运网络(carload network)或单车网络,也就是非整列专列(non-unit train)业务。这一块需要投入大量的运营精力,需要耗费大量的工作努力,也会占用大量的资源。你在改善单车网络方面所做的任何努力,对所有客户来说都是件好事。它能释放资源,创造运力,让你能够用更少的资产处理同等甚至更多的货运量。
P7444:06:01
That translates through then to the improvement that you're seeing in the profitability. An example of that is in the first quarter of this year, we handled more volume than we did in the first quarter of last year, but we did it with 260 fewer locomotives. That translates into a more consistent service product for our customers, and it also translates into better financial results, which is what you saw in the first quarter of 2026. We're spending a lot of time ensuring that we have operational excellence, not in just all those other networks, but in the network that frees up resources and drives improvement and operational excellence for all of our customers. The second area, and you heard Greg talk about this earlier, was around our technological transformation.
这进而就会转化为大家在盈利能力上所看到的改善。举个例子,今年第一季度我们处理的货运量比去年第一季度更多,但我们使用的机车(火车头)却减少了 260 台。这不仅为我们的客户转化成了更稳定的服务产品,也转化成了更好的财务业绩,也就是大家在 2026 年第一季度所看到的结果。我们正投入大量时间,确保不仅在所有其他网络中实现卓越运营,更要在那张能够释放资源、为所有客户推动改进与卓越运营的单车网络中实现卓越运营。第二个领域,刚才大家也听到 Greg 谈到了,就是围绕我们的技术转型。
被引用:↩ 基本面档案 · 投资要点↩ FY2026Q2 季度复盘 · 电话会要点 · 分析师问答焦点↩ FY2026Q2 季度复盘 · 叙事 vs 报表↩ FY2026Q3 季度复盘 · 电话会要点 · 经营与产品进展↩ FY2026Q3 季度复盘 · 管理层口径变化↩ FY2026Q3 季度复盘 · 叙事 vs 报表↩ 估值 · 分部加总 SOTP↩ FY2026Q2 老唐风格精评 · 一、先对账:管理层上回吹的牛,这季度兑现了吗?↩ FY2026Q1 电话会解析 · 管理层发言解析 · Katie Farmer|BNSF 铁路总裁兼 CEO ×2↩ FY2026Q1 电话会解析 · 问答解析 · 6. BNSF 铁路运营效率(Operating Ratio)改善与同业差距(开场专题 & Manjap Singh) ×3↩ FY2026Q1 电话会解析 · 对投资判断的含义↩ 指引与语气 · 核心结论↩ 指引与语气 · 指引演变 · BNSF 铁路盈利修复与效率追赶
P7454:06:48
We really believe that in addition to driving that operational discipline that you saw in 2025 and into 2026, that working with the new BNSF tech organization to drive that next step level of improvement. You saw units dwell in our terminals less time. That translated through to the financial results that I talked about. You saw velocity improve as well. How do we leverage technology then to take the next step level improvement? I'm excited about what we're doing there. We're literally attracting data scientists, operations research folks, and we're putting them alongside of our operators in our network operations center. We're looking at things like digital twins, which gives us the opportunity to model how we run the railroad before we actually run the railroad.
我们确实相信,除了推动大家在 2025 年以及进入 2026 年所看到的那种运营纪律之外,还要与新的 BNSF 技术部门合作,推动下一阶段的提升。大家看到,车厢在我们枢纽站停留的时间缩短了。这转化为了我刚才谈到的财务业绩。大家也看到了运行速度的提高。那么,我们如何利用技术来实现下一阶段的提升呢?我对我们在那方面所做的工作感到兴奋。我们实际上正在吸引数据科学家、运筹学人才,并让他们在我们的网络运营中心与一线调度运营人员并肩工作。我们正在研究诸如数字孪生(digital twins)之类的技术,这让我们有机会在实际运行铁路之前,先对如何运行铁路进行建模。
P7464:07:46
We're looking at opportunities to do predictive ETAs for our customers, which allows our customers to have a better product. It allows us to turn the assets faster. Last, what I would say is that we're good old-fashioned going to work on attacking the largest structural cost buckets. We had a record for the first quarter in our fuel efficiency. That's the kind of thing we want to do because it makes us competitive with trucks, it is good for the environment, and it's good for our financials. Those are the things we're doing to close the gap relative to profitability. Now, your question about competing with trucks, I would say a couple of things with that. First of all, we have the largest intermodal franchise of all of the railroads. We have a unique relationship with J.B.
我们正在寻找机会为客户提供预测性预计到达时间(ETA),这能让我们的客户获得更好的产品体验,也能让我们加快资产周转。最后我想说的是,我们正在用扎实的传统方式攻克最大的结构性成本项。我们在第一季度创下了燃油效率的纪录。这就是我们要做的事情,因为这使我们具备与卡车竞争的能力,对环境有益,对我们的财务业绩也有好处。这些就是我们为了缩小盈利能力差距正在做的事情。至于你关于与卡车竞争的问题,我想谈几点。首先,在所有铁路公司中,我们拥有规模最大的多式联运业务(intermodal franchise)。我们与 J.B. Hunt 保持着独特的合作关系。
P7474:08:40
Hunt, we have been extremely successful in converting over-the-road freight. We've done more of that than anybody, we know how to compete with trucks. Your question about technology is a good one. I would say that we, in the past, have invested in a system called Positive Train Control, which is a safety overlay that allows us to operate the railroad efficiently. As you know, we operate in a closed circuit, we have the ability, to your point, ultimately to run the train with fewer people than we operate with today. In fact, if you go way back in time, we used to operate the trains with 5 people on the train. Now we're down to 2 people on most of our trains.
在把公路货运转化为铁路运输方面,我们取得了极大的成功。我们在这方面做得比任何人都多,我们知道如何与卡车竞争。你关于技术的问题问得很好。我想说,过去我们投资了一套名为列车主动控制系统(Positive Train Control)的系统,这是一层安全保障系统,使我们能够高效地运营铁路。如你所知,我们在封闭线路中运营,正如你所提到的,我们具备最终用比现在更少的人员来运行列车的能力。事实上,如果追溯到很久以前,我们曾经在每列火车上配备 5 个人来运行。现在我们大多数列车已经减少到了 2 个人。
P7484:09:23
The technology will continue, just like most industries, will continue to evolve, and we're continuing to look at that as well. The last point I would say with that, though, is that we also have to be allowed to innovate, we need regulation that supports the ability for railroads to be able to compete with trucks. As you said, we know that there are trucks out there running today in our state in Texas along I-45. There was just a pilot with autonomous trucks. What we have to be able to do is to be able to compete with that and to be able to innovate. We're going to need regulations that allow the railroads to be able to do that.
就像大多数行业一样,技术将继续演进,我们也在持续关注这一点。不过,关于这一点我想说的最后一点是,我们也必须被允许去创新,我们需要能够支持铁路具备与卡车竞争能力的监管政策。正如你所说,我们知道如今在我们所在的得克萨斯州,已经有卡车沿着 I-45 州际公路行驶了。刚刚还进行了一个自动驾驶卡车的试点项目。我们必须能够做到的是,能够与之竞争并能够进行创新。我们需要允许铁路公司这样做的监管政策。
P7494:10:06
That's how I think about competing, ensuring that we're closing the gap, as well as maintaining our competitive advantage with trucks.
这就是我对于竞争的看法:确保我们不断缩小差距,同时保持我们相对于卡车的竞争优势。
P7504:10:14
Greg AbelPresident and CEO
Thank you, Katie. Adam, on that, on that point and Katie's point, you know, you came literally, Adam had left for a very brief stint 10 years ago, and had a very senior role in NetJets and had been effectively been recruited to be a CEO of another business that was going public. We were fortunate enough to convince Adam to come back. He came back to a challenging situation. The asset was underperforming. We had billions of dollars of debt back to ourselves, to the parent company. It was debt that had been incurred and some real challenges.
谢谢你,Katie。Adam,关于这一点以及 Katie 刚才说的那一点,要知道,Adam 在 10 年前曾短暂离开过一段时间,当时他在 NetJets 担任非常高层的职位,实际上是被招揽去另一家准备上市的企业担任 CEO。我们非常幸运地说服了 Adam 回归。他回来时面对的是一个充满挑战的局面。这项资产当时表现不佳,还欠我们自己、也就是母公司数十亿美元的债务。那是此前积累下来的债务,而且面临着一些实实在在的挑战。
P7514:10:59
When you think about how we address underperformance and how do we get a business back on track, maybe you just want to touch on that period of time and that bringing the business back and how you achieved that.
当思考我们如何解决业绩不佳的问题、如何让一家企业重回正轨时,也许你可以谈谈那段时期,谈谈你是如何带领业务重回正轨并实现这一点的。
P7524:11:17
Adam JohnsonPresident of Consumer Products, Service and Retailing; CEO of NetJets
Yeah. Well, one, I will tell you know, I came back on June 1st of 2015. That Monday afternoon, many of the team that's up here today, we got in a room, I asked a question about how many people really understand sort of the bookends of our business. NetJets is complicated. We're ad hoc. We're unscheduled. We fly to thousands of airports. Commercial airlines will fly to 50 to 100 airports. We fly to 150 countries around. It's a very complicated business. I asked a question to the team, "How many people do you think really understand the bookends of our business?" I didn't like the answer. I won't tell you what the answer was, but it was too few.
好的。首先,我得告诉大家,我是在 2015 年 6 月 1 日回来的。那个星期一下午,今天在座的许多团队成员,我们聚在一个房间里,我问了一个问题:有多少人真正理解我们业务的全貌(bookends)。NetJets 非常复杂。我们是临时调度的,没有固定航班时刻表。我们飞往数以千计的机场。商业航空公司通常飞往 50 到 100 个机场,而我们飞往全球 150 个国家。这是一项非常复杂的业务。我当时问团队:“你们觉得有多少人真正理解我们业务的全貌?”我不喜欢当时的答案。我不会告诉你们具体答案是什么,但人数太少了。
P7534:11:58
it sort of started there. what we did was we really said, you know, to build this culture the way we want it, if I understand what you're doing, you understand what I'm doing at deeper and wider levels, we're gonna do good things together. it sort of started on that Monday afternoon and when we started building that back. I will tell you, it was also a reinforcement from, probably from Greg. I remember my first board meeting prep, and I was excited, and we were starting to kind of move and I was talking about growth, and we're gonna get this right. We're gonna grow. Greg pulled me aside in a very kind way, and he said, "Why don't you pay $1 back to Warren and work on getting your debt down?" That was a teaching lesson.
一切差不多就是从那里开始的。我们当时的做法是明确提出,要按照我们期望的方式建立这种文化,如果我能在更深、更广的层面上理解你在做什么,你也能理解我在做什么,我们就能一起把事情做好。所以一切差不多就是从那个星期一下午、从我们着手重建这种文化开始的。我还要告诉大家,这也得到了可能来自 Greg 的强化。我记得我第一次准备董事会会议时,我非常兴奋,我们的业务开始有所起色,我大谈特谈增长,说我们要把事情做好、我们要实现增长。Greg 非常和善地把我拉到一旁,对我说:“你为什么不先还给 Warren 1 美元,并努力把你们的债务降下来呢?”那是让我受益匪浅的一课。
P7544:12:39
I took that to heart. I heard it clearly, I actually already knew that. We just started really putting our blinders on, and we said, "Safety and service. Safety and service." Warren bought NetJets after becoming a customer in 1995. Bought NetJets in 1998, he did a video for us that we still use. He said, "I want safety, and I want service." We've been really focused on making sure everybody stays in that alleyway. That, in large part, plus a lot of hard work, is why we're able to pay our debt back. We're able to pay cash back to Berkshire Hathaway and move our way, as I said in the video, out of the other com and be first in the service business, I'm proud of that.
我把这句话铭记在心。我听得非常清楚,而且我其实本来也明白这一点。于是我们开始心无旁骛,明确提出:“安全与服务。安全与服务。”Warren 在 1995 年成为客户之后买下了 NetJets。他在 1998 年收购了 NetJets,并为我们录制了一段我们至今仍在使用的视频。他在视频里说:“我要安全,我要服务。”我们一直非常专注于确保每个人都坚守在这条主航道上。在很大程度上,正是这一点加上大量的辛勤工作,才使我们能够偿还债务,能够向 Berkshire Hathaway 回笼现金,并且正如我在视频中所说,从“其他公司”类别中脱颖而出,成为服务板块的第一名,我对此深感自豪。
P7554:13:22
Greg AbelPresident and CEO
Great.
太好了。
P7564:13:23
Adam JohnsonPresident of Consumer Products, Service and Retailing; CEO of NetJets
Yep.
是的。
P7574:13:23
Greg AbelPresident and CEO
Thank you, Adam. Thank you, Katy. Becky.
谢谢你,Adam。谢谢你,Katie。Becky。
P7584:13:33
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Okay. This comes from Brian Simpkins in San Diego, California. The question is: Has Berkshire Hathaway considered seeking any tariff relief or reimbursement programs for its wholly owned operating businesses exposed to import costs, and how significant is that impact across the portfolio?
好的。这个问题来自加利福尼亚州圣迭戈的 Brian Simpkins。问题是:Berkshire Hathaway 是否考虑过为其面临进口成本敞口的全资运营企业申请任何关税减免或退税补偿计划?这一影响在整个投资组合中有多大?
P7594:13:54
Greg AbelPresident and CEO
Let me start with the impact across our portfolio because it's very close to discussing the situation in the Middle East in that, yes, there was the tariffs, and each business may have fallen under a different tariff for what they were importing. We'd gone through it once already in the first term of the administration, and there were lessons learned there. We were both better prepared in how to manage through it and had realigned a certain amount of our inputs. You know, that was valuable. The second thing was it's as I described with the conflict. It was heads down, and we'll just manage ourselves through it. You know, listen, there's some cost pressures here.
我先从对我们整个投资组合的影响谈起,因为这与讨论中东局势非常相似:是的,确实有关税,而且每家企业根据其进口商品的不同,可能适用不同的关税。在本届政府的第一任期内我们已经经历过一次,并从中吸取了经验教训。我们在如何应对这一问题上准备得更加充分,并且已经重新调整了一定比例的投入品供应链。这非常有价值。第二点就像我在谈到冲突时所描述的那样:埋头苦干,自己想办法渡过难关。要知道,这里确实存在一些成本压力。
P7604:14:45
We'll figure out how we're gonna continue to serve the customer. We'll work through on delivering what they need. There has to be some reasonable expectations on the other side that we'd recover those tariffs from through the either through a direct contract with them or through the product we're creating. That was a good approach in that we just held our course and wanted to continue to service them. Yes, there is financial impacts, but our team did a really remarkable job of addressing it and really minimizing the impact to any of our businesses. As far as recovering it, that would definitely be at our operating level they would be making such a decision.
我们会想办法如何继续服务好客户,努力交付他们所需要的产品。同时,对方也必须有一些合理的预期,即我们会通过与他们签订的直接合同,或者通过我们所生产的产品,来消化并收回这些关税成本。这是一个很好的做法,因为我们只是坚守自己的方向,希望继续为他们提供服务。是的,确实存在财务影响,但我们的团队在应对这一问题上做得非常出色,真正将对我们任何一家企业的影响降到了最低。至于申请关税退还或补偿,这绝对是由我们的运营企业层面来做出的决定。
P7614:15:34
Overall right now, our perspective has been there's a lot to sort out when it comes to refunds, what we're eligible for. At this point in time, we're very much taking an approach that, if it's appropriate, our teams will evaluate it. Again, it'll be a discussion with our customers and with a number of them. It's an operating subsidiary decision, but we're not naive to it in that we're encouraging them. There's a lot to be sorted out at this moment in time, and we're not pursuing them. That doesn't mean we may not have a subsidiary, and I'll look to our team on stage here, that may be pursuing one or seeking one. Katie, anything on?
总体而言,目前我们的看法是,关于退税以及我们符合哪些条件,还有很多事情有待理清。在目前这个时间点,我们采取的态度是,如果合适的话,我们的团队会对其进行评估。同样,这也会涉及到与我们的客户、与众多客户进行讨论。这是运营子公司的决定,但我们对此并不天真,我们也在鼓励他们关注。目前还有很多细节需要理清,我们眼下并没有在主动追索。但这并不意味着我们旗下没有某家子公司可能正在追索或寻求退税,我来看看台上的团队成员。Katie,有什么补充吗?
P7624:16:20
Katie FarmerPresident and CEO
It not as far as the reimbursement, but I would say just as far as the impact of the tariffs and what we're seeing with our customers, you know, I would say that in early 2025, we saw several of our customers pulling forward shipments in advance, in advance of the tariffs. You know, we certainly saw our volumes ramp up at the beginning of 2025 because people were trying to get ahead of the implementation of the tariffs. We did see, you know, an increase in volumes through early 2025. That really stabilized then in the back part of 2025. Into 2026, I would say that our customers have really adapted to the tariffs and adjusted to the tariffs.
不是关于退税补偿方面,但就关税的影响以及我们在客户身上看到的情况而言,我想说,在 2025 年初,我们看到好几家客户在关税生效前提前抢运货物。在 2025 年初,我们确实看到货运量大幅上升,因为大家都在赶在关税实施之前发货。因此,在整个 2025 年初我们确实看到了货运量的增长。随后在 2025 年下半年,情况真正趋于稳定。进入 2026 年,我想说我们的客户已经真正适应并针对关税做出了调整。
P7634:17:04
With that said, it does cause some uncertainty, and I think where we see that really showing up is, you know, it's very difficult for our customers from a planning perspective. I think it's keeping some capital on the sidelines as far as investment in manufacturing facilities. It's just really the uncertainty of the tariffs that really is what we're seeing reflected with our customers.
话虽如此,它确实带来了一些不确定性,我认为这真正体现出来的地方在于,从规划的角度来看,这让我们的客户感到非常困难。我认为在制造业设施投资方面,这让一部分资金保持观望态度。我们在客户身上看到反映出来的,其实就是关税的不确定性。
P7644:17:28
Greg AbelPresident and CEO
Thank you. Adam?
谢谢你。Adam?
P7654:17:30
Adam JohnsonPresident of Consumer Products, Service and Retailing; CEO of NetJets
I mean, I would echo both those points. One, I would probably use, you know, Berkshire Hathaway Automotive, Jeff Rachor, who is an excellent, you know, CEO of that division. You know, the new and used sales are, you know, slightly down in Q1 of this year compared to last year, and part of that is sort of that same effect from the tariff buying that occurred a year ago today. I had to smile because we were collecting, okay, it's changed every day, as we know, and you manage through that and just understanding the tariff bouncing ball was, you know, a job in itself. I had to smile because I was actually calling our CEOs just to get their take on it.
我完全赞同以上两点。首先,我可能会举 Berkshire Hathaway Automotive 的例子,Jeff Rachor 是该部门一位非常出色的 CEO。今年第一季度的新车和二手车销量与去年同期相比略有下降,其中一部分原因就是一年前的今天由于关税而引发的提前购车效应。我当时忍不住笑了,因为我们在收集信息时发现,正如大家所知,情况每天都在变化,你必须设法应对,仅仅是搞清楚关税这颗“弹跳球”的走向本身就是一项工作。我之所以忍不住笑,是因为我当时实际上在给我们各家企业的 CEO 打电话,想听听他们对此的看法。
P7664:18:09
The 32 companies in the portfolio, consumer product services and retail. It's a stat that I love. They've actually been around on average 88 years, and only 0.5% of American businesses have been around more than 80 years. Our average in that sector from a founding standpoint is 88 years. Several of the 5 companies, specifically, companies that were founded in the 1800s. When I called those CEOs, they said, "We've been dealing with tariffs for 100 years," you know, kind of thing. Not being dismissive at all of tariffs. The point is, I look at the whole tariff conversation as you're always gonna have a curveball.
在消费品、服务和零售板块的投资组合中,共有 32 家公司。有一个我非常喜欢的统计数据:这些公司平均已经存在了 88 年,而美国只有 0.5% 的企业历史超过 80 年。从成立时间来看,我们在该板块的企业平均历史达到 88 年。其中具体有 5 家公司是在 1800 年代成立的。当我给这些 CEO 打电话时,他们说:“我们已经和关税打交道 100 年了”之类的话。这绝不是对关税掉以轻心。关键在于,我把整个关于关税的讨论看作是你总会遇到突如其来的变化球(curveball)。
P7674:18:48
If I think of the CEOs in the last, you know, 7, 8 years, we've had to deal with a global pandemic, the highest inflation in 40 years, and now this thing, you know, the bouncing ball of tariffs. The businesses have done an excellent job of managing through that. I wouldn't put it in the fun department of the things we have to deal with, but we're learning it and I think we're in a pretty decent spot, moving forward.
如果我回想一下过去 7、8 年里各位 CEO 所经历的,我们不得不应对全球疫情、40 年来最高的通货膨胀,以及现在的这个情况——变化无常的关税。各家企业在应对这些挑战方面做得非常出色。我不会把它归入我们必须处理的“有趣事务”一类,但我们正在从中学习,而且我认为展望未来,我们处于一个相当不错的位置。
P7684:19:15
Greg AbelPresident and CEO
Thank you, Adam. We'll move to station six.
谢谢你,Adam。下面请 6 号提问区提问。
P7694:19:23
Amir RayhaniShareholder, Shareholder (Vancouver)
Good afternoon. My name is Amir Rayhani from Vancouver, Canada. Thank you for hosting us, and thanks to everyone at headquarters that makes this weekend possible. Berkshire's investments in the five Japanese trading houses was passive. Good businesses at good prices financed by cheap yen. Your Tokio Marine deal is fundamentally different. A 10-year joint M&A and reinsurance partnership. That's a level of operational integration Berkshire has never done internationally. What does that look like in practice, and does it signal a broader shift toward active international partnerships under your leadership? To put you on the spot, Greg, Canada versus USA in hockey, who are you cheering for? Sorry.
下午好。我叫 Amir Rayhani,来自加拿大温哥华。感谢你们招待我们,也感谢总部每一位让这个周末成为可能的工作人员。Berkshire 对日本五大商社的投资是被动的:以好价格买入好企业,并通过低息日元融资。而你们与 Tokio Marine 的交易则截然不同——这是一项为期 10 年的联合并购与再保险合作伙伴关系。这种程度的运营整合是 Berkshire 在国际上从未做过的。这在实践中会是什么样子?这是否预示着在您的领导下,公司正更广泛地转向主动型国际合作伙伴关系?另外故意给您出个难题,Greg,在冰球比赛中加拿大对阵美国,您为谁加油?抱歉。
P7704:20:20
Greg AbelPresident and CEO
Now I'm in trouble. Yeah, Ajit did an exceptional job of discussing Tokio Marine, and I'll touch on it. I teed it up a bit in saying it is a strategic relationship less than a financial transaction. Yes, we like the 2.5% investment into Tokio Marine, and that will be a long-term investment. It's the type of investment we put with our other 5 investments in Japan. We really think of those as forever because it goes beyond the investment, and it's very much around the relationships we wanna build there, and you'll continue to see that.
这下我有麻烦了。是的,Ajit 刚才非常出色地探讨了 Tokio Marine,我也来谈谈。我之前稍微做了一点铺垫,说这与其说是一笔财务交易,不如说是一种战略合作关系。是的,我们很喜欢对 Tokio Marine 2.5% 的股权投资,这将是一项长期投资。这与我们在日本的另外 5 项投资属于同一类型的投资。我们真正把它们视为永久性的投资,因为它超越了单纯的投资本身,很大程度上关乎我们希望在那里建立的合作关系,而且大家会继续看到这一点。
P7714:21:09
Ajit expanded on the underwriting opportunity that we do jointly participate in their risk and rewards associated with effectively also 2.5% of their book there now. That's again part of the financial transaction. There's also great deal of faith there. We, as Ajit said, really Ajit says, I take his word for that, you know, it's an exceptional company and their performance has been remarkable. We're thrilled to have them. The third thing that was touched on was the partnership highlighted a variety of things how we would like the relationship to develop, that's not defined yet. We'll continue to let that take its proper form. They're the type of partner that has the same culture, same values as us.
Ajit 详细阐述了核保方面的机会,即我们现在实际上也共同参与其大约 2.5% 业务账面(book)相关的风险与回报。这同样是财务交易的一部分。这其中也有着极大的信任。正如 Ajit 所说——既然 Ajit 这么说,我完全相信他的判断——这是一家卓越的公司,他们的业绩表现非常出色。我们非常高兴能与他们合作。谈到的第三件事是,这项合作关系凸显了我们希望推动双边关系发展的多个方向,目前这些尚未完全界定。我们会继续让它自然发展成形。他们正是那种与我们拥有相同文化、相同价值观的合作伙伴。
P7724:22:07
There's little question it's gonna be exceptional for many years to come. As far as pursuing an absolute acquisition in insurance or something like that'll evolve with time, and that would be obviously the discussions Ajit and the senior team at Tokio Marine would be having. If such an opportunity materializes, we'd be thrilled with it. To the really tough question, Canada versus U.S. in hockey. I did find a way, it can cause a lot of angst in my own family.
毫无疑问,在未来许多年里,这段合作关系都将非常出色。至于在保险领域推进全面收购或类似的事情,那将随着时间推移而演进,显然那会是由 Ajit 和 Tokio Marine 的高管团队去进行的讨论。如果这样的机会能够落地,我们会非常高兴。至于那个真正棘手的问题:冰球比赛加拿大对阵美国。我确实找到了一个办法,因为这个问题在我自己家里都会引发不少纠结。
P7734:22:44
I remember waking up that morning and Canada was playing the men, but I'd already decided a little bit earlier that when it came to the Canadian men versus U.S. men, Connor McDavid plays for Edmonton, and therefore I was gonna cheer because being from Edmonton, I would cheer for the Canadian men's team. I've always followed the U.S. women, and I love what a program the U.S. hockey and I love USA Hockey and how they approach the coaching and the development of the youth, and I think they've done a great job there. I chose to cheer for the U.S. women, and it was the perfect outcome for me. A little selfish in finding that type of outcome.
我记得那天早上醒来时,加拿大正在打男子冰球比赛,但我早些时候就已经决定好了:在加拿大男队对阵美国男队时,因为 Connor McDavid 效力于埃德蒙顿队(Edmonton),而我来自埃德蒙顿,所以我会为加拿大男队加油。而我一直关注美国女队,我非常喜欢美国冰球项目以及美国冰球协会(USA Hockey),喜欢他们开展教练工作和培养青少年球员的方式,我认为他们在这方面做得非常棒。所以我选择为美国女队加油,而最终的结果对我来说堪称完美。能找到这样一个两全其美的结果,算是有一点点小私心吧。
P7744:23:31
Katie FarmerPresident and CEO
I will say Greg and I had an Oilers-Stars bet last year.
我想说,Greg 和我去年曾就油人队(Oilers)对阵星队(Stars)的比赛打过一个赌。
P7754:23:36
Greg AbelPresident and CEO
Yes, true.
是的,没错。
P7764:23:36
Katie FarmerPresident and CEO
The losing person had to wear the jersey of the other, and I now own Oilers gear.
输的人必须穿对方球队的球衣,所以我现在拥有了油人队的装备。
P7774:23:42
Greg AbelPresident and CEO
Yeah, Katie owns some Oilers jersey. Unfortunately this year, neither of us went to have that bet. They're both on the sidelines very quickly. Thank you for that question, Becky.
是的,Katie 有了油人队的球衣。遗憾的是,今年我们俩都没法打这个赌了,因为这两支球队都很快就出局了。谢谢你的提问。Becky。
P7784:23:57
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
This question comes from a shareholder who didn't want to be identified, but it's a variation of a question that I got from several shareholders. Is there any future circumstance that you could envision Berkshire divesting businesses or being broken up? If so, what are those circumstances? The shareholder also writes, "Note, I don't want this to happen, but it's commonly discussed among followers of the company.
这个问题来自一位不愿透露姓名的股东,但它也是我从好几位股东那里收到的同类问题的不同版本。在未来的任何情况下,您是否能设想 Berkshire 剥离旗下业务或被分拆?如果会的话,是在什么情况下?这位股东还写道:“注:我并不希望这种情况发生,但这在公司的关注者当中经常被讨论。”
P7794:24:25
Greg AbelPresident and CEO
Yes. The-- when we think of the question, and I think it's a good one because, we've always highlighted there's certain circumstances that we may not be the best owner of a business. We've touched on if there's labor issues that we cannot resolve. I would take it to the point then further in my letter, I touched on if there's reputational risks that we're not willing to ever have our owners or shareholders or Berkshire experience, and that maybe the business has evolved, the customers have evolved. If there's that type of situation, then that company does not belong in the Berkshire family. It may be a fine business that can be owned by someone else, but it may mean we don't own it.
好的。当我们思考这个问题时——我认为这是一个很好的问题——因为我们一直强调,在某些特定情况下,我们可能不再是一家企业的最佳拥有者。我们曾提到过,如果存在我们无法解决的劳工问题。我在股东信中进一步谈到了这一点:如果存在我们绝不愿意让我们的所有者、股东或 Berkshire 承受的声誉风险,又或者业务本身发生了演变、客户群体发生了演变。如果出现那类情况,那么那家公司就不属于 Berkshire 大家庭。它可能依然是一家可以由别人持有的好企业,但这意味着我们不会继续持有它。
P7804:25:20
I would then take it a little bit further. I touched on a couple things or one other thing before I jump to that would be we've often talked that if we have a business that is unsustainable, it and no longer generating operating cash for our shareholders, we have to make some serious decisions around that. If there's someone else who could operate it and make it be more successful, both for the customer and for our employees, we have to consider that. Otherwise, that business is unfortunately in a place where we can't just fund it and experience losses. We would wind it down over a period of time, but we'd look for a better solution for our customers, employees.
我还可以再进一步谈谈。在跳到那一点之前,我先提一下另一件事:我们经常谈到,如果我们有一家企业难以为继,不再为我们的股东产生经营现金流,我们就必须围绕它做出一些严肃的决定。如果有其他人能够运营它,并让它无论对客户还是对我们的员工而言都更加成功,我们就必须予以考虑。否则,这家企业不幸处于一种我们不能无休止注资并承受亏损的境地。我们会在一段时间内将其逐步关停,但我们会为我们的客户和员工寻找一个更好的解决方案。
P7814:26:04
Well, that, at least from my perspective, has always been the case and how we'll continue to do it. I would say we take the obligation in making sure our capital is properly deployed, obviously very seriously. I touched on the regulatory compact at energy and that has to exist, and if we have capital deployed there, we have to get a fair return. We have a situation where we've actually announced we're selling a portion of PacifiCorp, our Washington State utility. And that's really a function of the fact that we have a multi-state process in PacifiCorp. There's 6 different states, and each customer is impacted in different ways.
至少从我的角度来看,情况一直如此,而且我们今后也会继续这样做。我想说,我们显然非常严肃地对待确保资本得到妥善配置这一责任。我之前谈到了能源业务的监管契约(regulatory compact),这种契约必须存在;如果我们在那里投入了资本,我们就必须获得合理的回报。我们目前就有这样一个例子:我们实际上已经宣布出售 PacifiCorp 的一部分业务,即我们在华盛顿州的公用事业资产。这实际上是因为我们在 PacifiCorp 实行的是跨州运营机制。它涉及 6 个不同的州,每个州的客户受到的影响各不相同。
P7824:26:55
I've already said we very much focus on what's the needs of our each state and how can we best service them. Unfortunately, we are in a situation in Washington where they clearly had policy that they wanted from PacifiCorp, and it was having a significant impact on the cost of our other states. As much as we would have liked to seen what we call a multi-state compact, i.e., how do they balance all that, it wasn't occurring. Our other states were bearing costs that they felt were not theirs, that were being imposed by another state. We consciously said, "This isn't working for the 6 states." The 1 state who had very specific policies and wanted them implemented, we chose to exit.
我已经说过,我们非常关注每个州的具体需求,以及如何才能最好地服务他们。遗憾的是,我们在华盛顿州面临的情况是,他们明确要求 PacifiCorp 执行某些特定政策,而这对我们其他州的成本产生了重大影响。尽管我们非常希望看到所谓的“跨州契约”(即各州如何平衡这一切),但这种情况并没有发生。我们服务的其他州正在承担他们认为不属于自己、而是由另一个州强加的成本。于是我们深思熟虑后表示:“这种模式对这 6 个州来说行不通了。”对于拥有非常具体的政策要求并希望予以实施的那 1 个州,我们选择了退出。
P7834:27:44
We found a very good purchaser, who very much supported and could implement what was required at that state. There we have evolved, and it's a situation where it just didn't make sense for Berkshire to be an owner of that asset or our owners to be an owner of that asset. It'll be, I believe, a better outcome for the state and for their customers. There are those situations where we would, we would divest, and we will always approach things that when we buy something, it's forever. When we acquire a utility, we tell the regulators it's forever, it has to be a relationship that works, and if it's broken, we'll find a better path, both for the company, the employees, customers, and obviously for Berkshire. Yep.
我们找到了一家非常好的买方,他们非常支持并能够落实该州所要求的政策。在那里,情况发生了演变,使得 Berkshire 或我们的股东继续持有该项资产已经不再合理。我相信,对该州及其客户而言,这会是一个更好的结果。因此在某些情况下,我们确实会进行剥离;但我们对待收购的一贯态度始终是:当我们买入一家企业时,就是永久持有。当我们收购一家公用事业公司时,我们告诉监管机构这是永久性的,但这必须是一种行之有效的合作关系;如果这种关系破裂了,我们会为这家公司、员工、客户,当然还有 Berkshire,寻找一条更好的出路。是的。
P7844:28:40
Kate, yep.
Katie,请讲。
P7854:28:41
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Greg, there's a second part of that question, though.
不过 Greg,那个问题还有第二部分。
P7864:28:44
Greg AbelPresident and CEO
Please.
请讲。
P7874:28:44
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Is there a point where some of the parts or something, is there a point where it doesn't make sense for Berkshire to be a conglomerate where you would break up the company?
是否会到某一个时刻,出于分部加总价值(sum of the parts)或其他原因,Berkshire 继续作为一家多元化集团不再合理,从而让您分拆这家公司?
P7884:28:53
Greg AbelPresident and CEO
Yeah. To the second part of the question, absolutely not. I touched on it early. We are a conglomerate, but we are an efficient conglomerate. We don't have layers of management. We don't have a bunch of committees telling our businesses how to run, how they're going to, you know, manage their customer relationships. We try to, at the odd time, create frameworks so there's value shared across the businesses, so they're aware of what our other businesses are doing. Technologies, that's one of them, where we like our framework now. We think it's very effective across three of our businesses. Of course, we want them to understand it. But we don't create layers.
好的。对于这个问题的第二部分,绝对不会。我早些时候已经谈到过这一点。我们是一家多元化集团(conglomerate),但我们是一家高效的多元化集团。我们没有层层叠叠的管理机构,也没有一大堆委员会去对旗下企业如何运营、如何管理客户关系指手画脚。我们只是偶尔会搭建一些框架,让各家企业之间能够共享价值,让他们了解我们旗下其他企业在做什么。技术就是其中之一,我们很喜欢现在的框架,认为它在我们旗下三家企业中非常有效。当然,我们希望他们了解这一框架,但我们不会因此设立管理层级。
P7894:29:40
I remember when Adam took on the role, I nicely said, you know, "There, there'll be no corporate group supporting you either in Omaha or amongst your own team." He's got folks in NetJets, and they always step up and take more responsibility, including when I was in that role or in the vice chairman role. The one thing we don't do is create layers of bureaucracy or other decision trees around it. I think so many conglomerates end up with layers and layers of costs that don't add value to the overall corporation. I'm even careful when I talk about our metals group and our chemicals group because they're a group call it maybe, in my vision, i.e., I see similar opportunities.
我记得当 Adam 接任这个职位时,我温和地对他说:“无论是在奥马哈总部,还是在你自己的团队里,都不会有专门的总部职能团队来支持你。”他在 NetJets 有自己的团队成员,而且他们总是挺身而出承担更多责任,包括当年我担任那个职位或担任副董事长时也是如此。我们绝不会做的一件事,就是围绕它制造层层官僚机构或额外的决策树。我认为太多多元化集团最终都背上了层层叠叠的成本,却没有为整个公司创造任何价值。甚至在谈到我们的金属业务群(metals group)和化工业务群(chemicals group)时,我都很谨慎,因为只是在我的构想中把它们称为一个“业务群”,也就是说,我看到了相似的机会。
P7904:30:35
I want them to work together. They don't have a corporate group on top of them or anybody directing them on what to do. They find ways to work together because they have a lot of can have the same challenges, can have the same customers. We see our conglomerate structure working without the bureaucracy and bloated costs. We see a great opportunity to continue to move capital across those different groups in a very tax-efficient way. Other people can't say, "I want to move capital." BNSF is a great example.
我希望他们能相互协作。在他们之上并没有一个总部管理团队,也没有任何人指挥他们该做什么。他们会自己找到合作的方式,因为他们面临许多相同的挑战,拥有许多相同的客户。我们看到,我们的多元化集团架构在没有官僚主义和臃肿成本的情况下运转良好。我们也看到了一个巨大的优势,即能够继续以非常节税(tax-efficient)的方式在这些不同业务板块之间调配资本。其他公司可没法直接说“我想调配资本”。BNSF 就是一个很好的例子。
P7914:31:11
Yes, they have a strong operating results. They're in a cycle in their business cycle right now where there's a certain amount of capital we have to deploy into it, but we also receive substantial dividends from BNSF on an annual basis. We can take that capital and decide, is it needed in a different operating business, or do we see opportunities in equities? If we don't see those opportunities, we understand the logical home right now is U.S. Treasuries. We think that's a good asset. Would we prefer to see that deployed in a different fashion? Yes, when the opportunity presents itself. It allows us to really move that capital across the group.
是的,他们的经营业绩很强劲。他们目前正处于自身业务周期的某个阶段,我们必须向其投入一定规模的资本,但我们每年也会从 BNSF 获得可观的分红。我们可以拿着这笔资本去决定:是另一家运营企业需要它,还是我们在股票市场看到了机会?如果我们没有看到这些机会,我们明白目前合乎逻辑的去处就是美国国债。我们认为那是一项好资产。我们是否更希望看到这笔资金以其他方式配置出去?是的,当机会出现的时候。这种架构让我们能够真正把资本在整个集团内部自由调配。
P7924:31:59
I actually, the answer to the conglomerate is, yes, we understand we're one. We see it operates very effectively, and we do not see ourselves divesting of subsidiaries for that reason or ever breaking off a group.
所以对于多元化集团这个问题的回答是:是的,我们清楚自己是一家多元化集团,我们看到它运转得非常高效,而且我们认为自己绝不会出于这个原因去剥离子公司,也绝不会把某个业务群分拆出去。
P7934:32:17
ShareholderShareholder
Thank you.
谢谢。
P7944:32:25
Greg AbelPresident and CEO
Okay. station 7.
好的,请 7 号提问区提问。
P7954:32:34
Bori WangShareholder, Shareholder (Chengdu)
Hi, Greg.
你好,Greg。
P7964:32:35
Greg AbelPresident and CEO
Hi.
你好。
P7974:32:36
Bori WangShareholder, Shareholder (Chengdu)
Hi, Greg, Katie.
你们好,Greg、Katie。
P7984:32:37
Greg AbelPresident and CEO
Yeah
你好。
P7994:32:38
Bori WangShareholder, Shareholder (Chengdu)
Adam. My name is Bori Wang. I'm here from Chengdu, China. On behalf of myself and my investment partner, Xu Qi, thank you very much for this opportunity. Congratulations, Greg, on surviving your first year as CEO.
还有 Adam。我叫 Bori Wang,来自中国成都。我谨代表我自己以及我的投资合伙人 Xu Qi,非常感谢给我这次提问的机会。祝贺你,Greg,顺利挺过了担任 CEO 的第一年。
P8004:32:58
Greg AbelPresident and CEO
Thank you.
谢谢你。
P8014:32:59
Bori WangShareholder, Shareholder (Chengdu)
I'm sure the seat feels a bit warmer than it used to be. As you lead Berkshire into this new chapter, what would you say is the most significant evolution in your personal framework for assessing cash flow certainty and margin of safety compared to Warren's? Specifically, are you more inclined towards technology companies that exhibits the same robust cash flows? Thank you for continuing the legacy of Mr. Warren Buffett and Mr. Charlie Munger.
我相信现在这个位置坐起来比以前更烫手了一些。在您带领 Berkshire 开启这一新篇章之际,与 Warren 相比,您个人在评估现金流确定性和安全边际的框架上,最显著的演进是什么?具体而言,对于展现出同样强劲现金流的科技公司,您是否会更加倾向于投资?感谢您传承 Warren Buffett 先生和 Charlie Munger 先生的精神遗产。
P8024:33:37
Greg AbelPresident and CEO
Thank you. I think I'll start with the important part of that question. I mean, as far as how Warren thought about it, how Berkshire thought around approaching investments, quote, our margin of safety around investments and how we approach it, we're absolutely aligned there. That starts with our culture and values and how we've approached everything over the years. If I go back to looking at opportunities and energy, and it may have been an acquisition or we're deploying significant capital, it quickly went to, yes, we understood the opportunity, but Warren and I'd want to have this conversation, where's the risk? Do we really understand the risk associated with this?
谢谢你。我想先从这个问题最重要的部分谈起。就 Warren 是如何思考的、Berkshire 是如何对待投资的,也就是我们在投资上的“安全边际”以及我们的投资方法而言,我们在这方面是完全一致的。这首先源于我们的文化和价值观,以及我们多年来处理一切事务的方式。如果回顾以前我们在能源领域看机会的时候——无论是进行收购还是投入巨额资本——我们很快就会谈到:是的,我们理解这个机会,但 Warren 和我总会进行这样的对话:风险在哪里?我们真的理解与之相关的风险吗?
P8034:34:36
I have a really great example is that we were acquiring NV Energy. We had the opportunity to acquire it, and Warren was actually coming back from China and had been over there, and I was waiting for him to arrive and land in Seattle and give him an update that we had this potential opportunity. I very much knew the opportunity and what the value proposition was. I clearly had three significant risks in my mind that was anxious to discuss with Warren. Warren landed, and I had a short presentation sent him asking him to just give me a call. It was literally one page. Just to really trigger it, can we have this conversation?
我有一个非常好的例子,就是当年我们收购 NV Energy 的时候。当时我们有机会收购这家公司,Warren 正从中国访问归来,我一直在等他飞抵西雅图,好向他汇报我们有这样一个潜在的机会。我对这个机会以及它的价值主张非常清楚,同时我脑海里也明确想到了三个重大风险,急切地想和 Warren 讨论。Warren 落地后,我给他发了一份简短的材料,请他给我打个电话。那份材料真的只有一页纸,只是为了引出话题:我们能聊聊这件事吗?
P8044:35:29
The immediate conversation we had was, yeah, the economics, you couldn't agree more, understood them, went right to the biggest risk. I was just getting ready to walk him through the 2 or 3 risks I'd seen and want to make sure we understood it and were comfortable and wanted his input. The risk was fundamentally rooftop solar and how would it disrupt that business and disrupt our customer. We discussed it. We understood it was a challenge. I remember saying to Warren, well, that's part of the reason I'm sure we have this opportunity to acquire this public company, that there is a certain amount of risk in the public, and the board and the management team had decided that they didn't see the same opportunity we did.
我们随即展开的对话是:是的,在经济账方面完全赞同,都看得很明白,然后直接切入最大的风险。我正准备向他逐一介绍我看到的 2 到 3 个风险,想确保我们都理解并感到踏实,同时听听他的意见。那个根本性的风险就是屋顶太阳能(rooftop solar),以及它将如何冲击这项业务、影响我们的客户。我们对此进行了讨论,明白这是一个挑战。我记得当时我对 Warren 说,我确信这也是我们之所以有机会收购这家上市公司的原因之一,因为公开市场上存在一定程度的风险,而他们的董事会和管理团队认为他们没有看到我们所看到的同样机会。
P8054:36:15
Warren went right to it was all around the risk. That risk did surface 12 months later, 18 months. We managed our way through it. Our team did a great job. I don't see there being incremental margins or we think of risk differently. We think of them as in the Berkshire mindset, that we're gonna understand the economic prospects of this opportunity. As I said, we really go to that 10-year window potentially and say, "What's the business look like 10 years from now?" Is there enough safety margin 10 years from now? Is what we see it the outcome? Do we see an outcome?
Warren 当时直奔主题,完全围绕着风险展开。那个风险确实在 12 个月、18 个月后浮出了水面。我们设法渡过了难关,我们的团队做得非常棒。因此我不认为在安全边际上有什么变化,也不认为我们对风险的看法有什么不同。我们是以 Berkshire 的思维方式去思考这些问题,即我们要理解这项机会的经济前景。正如我所说,我们真的会把目光投向未来 10 年的时间窗口,并自问:“10 年后这家企业会是什么样子?”10 年后是否还有足够的安全边际?我们所看到的是否就是最终结果?我们能否看清未来的结果?
P8064:36:54
If we don't understand what that looks like 10 years from now, I know Warren would say this, I would say it, then we don't do it. There's no safety margin, or maybe we can adjust some numbers, or there'll be synergies or something of that. Like, we have to have a vision of what that's gonna feel like and look like. That, and that really is the how we approach it.
如果我们看不懂 10 年后它会是什么样子——我知道 Warren 会这么说,我也会这么说——那我们就不投。不存在什么没有安全边际却去调整几个数字、或者指望协同效应之类的做法。我们必须对它未来的感受和面貌有一个清晰的远见。这确实就是我们对待投资的方式。
P8074:37:18
Touching on technology companies, we're not gonna ever say, "Geez, this is a specific sector for us," or, "We need to be in it." If there's something in the technology sector or in that group of companies, and we understand one of those companies to understand again what their opportunities are and what we view as the economic prospects for it, and we have an understanding of what those risks are, that doesn't preclude us just because it's in a technology sector or that. It would start with back to the fundamentals of do we understand it? Do we understand both the opportunities and the risks? Is it fairly valued relative to that? That's always gonna be the approach. Thank you for your excellent question.
至于科技公司,我们绝不会说:“哎呀,这是我们必须进入的某个特定行业”,或者“我们非投不可”。如果在科技行业或那类公司中有什么机会,而且我们能够理解其中某家公司——同样是理解它的机会所在、理解我们所看到的经济前景,并且清楚它的风险是什么——那么我们并不会仅仅因为它属于科技行业就将其排除在外。一切还是要回归到基本面:我们能看懂它吗?我们是否既理解它的机会也理解它的风险?相对于这些,它的估值是否合理?这永远都会是我们的投资方法。感谢你提出的精彩问题。
P8084:38:17
Now, Becky, if this is okay, please pick your toughest question. We're beyond 1:00 P.M. now. This will be our last question for today. We look forward to it, then I'll have some conclusionary thoughts and comments. Thank you, Becky.
现在,Becky,如果可以的话,请挑一个你最尖锐的问题。现在已经过了下午 1:00 了。这将是我们今天的最后一个问题。我们很期待这个问题,回答完之后我会做一些总结性的发言和感想。谢谢你,Becky。
P8094:38:41
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
This question comes from Joseph Matyas, he said, "Warren had Charlie's partnership for most of his tenure as CEO, which naturally reduced the risk of subpar investment decisions. Who will serve as the Charlie for Greg?
这个问题来自 Joseph Matyas,他说:“Warren 在担任 CEO 的大部分时间里都有 Charlie 的搭档配合,这自然降低了做出欠佳投资决策的风险。谁将成为 Greg 的 Charlie 呢?”
P8104:39:05
Greg AbelPresident and CEO
They're a reason why they're in the rafters together. That was an incredible partnership and one that, you know, you can't replicate. What I would start with is that very fortunate to still have Warren as our Chairman, and that's very important, and it makes for an excellent transition. We have an exceptional board of directors that I'm comfortable reaching out to any of them individually, depending on the circumstances and either the risk we're dealing with or an opportunity that may be present in any of our businesses or one that may be coming our way. We're fortunate to have that exceptional group in place. Then it really comes back to our team that's in place.
他们两人的名字之所以一起高悬在球馆穹顶之上,是有原因的。那是一段不可思议的搭档关系,而且是无法复制的。首先我想说的是,我们非常幸运依然有 Warren 担任我们的董事长,这一点非常重要,也为我们实现平稳极佳的过渡提供了保障。我们拥有一个卓越的董事会,根据具体情况——无论是我们正在处理的风险,还是我们旗下任何企业出现的机会,抑或是向我们走来的新机会——我都可以随时坦然地单独联系他们中的任何一位。我们很幸运拥有这样一个卓越的董事会。然后,这真正归结到我们现有的团队。
P8114:39:56
I said this when I was answering to Warren from Omaha, that we want Berkshire to endure. That means, yes, I wanna lead Berkshire, and I'll be a strong leader. I strongly believe that, and I'll take Berkshire forward. It will be. You always need a single leader, and I think we strongly understand that. You surround yourself with great people, and they're already here. I've been fortunate on the non-insurance operation to operate with Adam's 32 and the 18 that I still get to interact with a lot. Those 50, including Adam and Katie, obviously have an exceptional working relationship with Ajit and fortunate with that and would seek counsel regularly.
我在回答来自奥马哈的股东关于 Warren 的提问时曾说过,我们希望 Berkshire 基业长青。这意味着,是的,我想要领导 Berkshire,而且我会成为一名强有力的领导者。我对此深信不疑,我会带领 Berkshire 不断前行。你始终需要一位核心领导者,我认为我们非常深刻地理解这一点。同时,你要让优秀的人才围绕在自己身边,而他们已经在这里了。在非保险业务方面,我很幸运能与 Adam 负责的 32 家公司以及我目前仍然经常直接交流的 18 家公司共事。这 50 家公司,包括 Adam 和 Katie 在内,显然我与 Ajit 也有着极其良好的工作关系,我对此感到很幸运,并会经常向他请教。
P8124:40:52
Even as vice chairmen, we would constantly have a conversation around he may be making an insurance decision, or I was making a decision around one of our non-operating businesses. The first thing we'd cross-check is, how does it impact your group? Have an amazing relationship and someone I immensely value the input. Across our CEOs, we're so fortunate to have a great group that I would reach out to any of them on a specific circumstance and ask them for their input.
甚至在我们担任副董事长期间,我们也会经常交流——比如他可能正在做一项保险决策,或者我正在围绕我们某家非保险运营企业做一项决策,我们交叉核对的第一件事就是:这对你的业务板块有什么影响?我们有着非常棒的合作关系,他是我极其看重其意见的人。在我们所有的子公司的 CEO 当中,我们非常幸运拥有这样一个优秀的群体,在特定情况下我会随时联系他们中的任何一位,征求他们的意见。
P8134:41:30
I generally know where they've dealt with a challenge or a significant opportunity, I'd be the first to seek it out and say, "Let's talk about it and figure out our path forward." It may be that it was someone on their team that really dealt with it, then I'd want to be talking to their team. Fortunately, because of Berkshire and the way we're created, again, it is a unique structure, but we have an immense amount of resources around us. Then we have our team in Omaha who has supported Warren for all those years. They're remarkable folks. There's not a lot of them, but they are good, and they're exceptional, and we're fortunate to have them as part of the team.
我通常知道他们在哪些方面处理过某种挑战或重大机会,我会第一个主动找上门去说:“我们聊聊这件事,一起摸索出前进的道路。”也许真正经手处理那件事的是他们团队里的某个人,那么我就会去和他们的团队交流。幸运的是,由于 Berkshire 的特质以及我们的构建方式——这确实是一个独特的架构——我们身边拥有极其丰富的资源。此外,我们在奥马哈总部还有多年来一直支持 Warren 的团队。他们是一群了不起的人。他们人数不多,但非常优秀、非常卓越,我们很幸运能有他们作为团队的一部分。
P8144:42:13
It will be such that Berkshire endures and will endure as a team, but clearly with leadership. Thank you, Becky, that last question. Thank you. As we wrap up today, obviously, I can't help but thank everyone for joining us this morning and early afternoon, both as our long-term shareholders or those that are newer shareholders and again, all of you that came for the experience. It's greatly appreciated. We enjoy this engagement. It all comes together because there's an individual Warren has highlighted in the past, pulls together the exhibit hall, pulls together everything here. I'd like to acknowledge her. Melissa Shapiro, thank you. The light was over on that table, but we do have.
因此,Berkshire 将作为一个团队基业长青、生生不息,但同时有着明确的领导核心。谢谢你,Becky,提出这最后一个问题。谢谢。在今天会议即将结束之际,我显然由衷地感谢大家今天上午和下午早些时候的参与——无论是我们的长期股东,还是新加入的股东,以及所有为了体验这场盛会而来的朋友们。非常感谢大家,我们很享受这种交流互动。这一切之所以能够圆满呈现,是因为有一位 Warren 过去也曾特别表扬过的人,是她统筹了整个展厅、统筹了这里的一切。我想向她致意:Melissa Shapiro,谢谢你。灯光刚才打在那边那张桌子上,但我们还有一件事。
P8154:43:31
We made this announcement in December. Our long-standing CFO, Marc Hamburg, is retiring in June of this year. We're very fortunate that then he will stay on for an incremental year as an advisor to our incoming CFO, as a personal friend, advisor to myself. We will have Mark's knowledge, resource, and it's immense when it comes to Berkshire. Yes. Mark has been our CFO for 34 years. Not this June. The following June when he truly retires, it'll be 40 years with Berkshire, and it's been such an incredible career. As Warren so, he wears so many hats in this organization. I mean, he's helping Melissa.
我们在去年 12 月发布了这一公告:我们长期任职的首席财务官(CFO)Marc Hamburg 将于今年 6 月退休。我们非常幸运的是,之后他将继续留任一年,作为我们新任 CFO 的顾问,同时也作为我的挚友和顾问。我们将继续拥有 Marc 的学识与经验资源,而他在这方面的积累对于 Berkshire 来说是无比宝贵的。是的,Marc 已经担任了 34 年的 CFO。不是今年 6 月,而是等到明年 6 月他真正退休时,他在 Berkshire 的服务年限将满 40 年,这是一段多么了不起的职业生涯。正如 Warren 所说的那样,他在我们这个组织里身兼数职。比如,他一直在协助 Melissa。
P8164:44:30
Melissa's organizing it, doing it all. When she has a question, she went to Mark to look for the answer around, be it the annual meeting. He's our Corporate Secretary. I like to say, to replace Mark, we hired a CFO. We also hired a General Counsel. It took two to replace him and more than that. Mark, thank you for your incredible contributions to Berkshire. Warren has highlighted those. I can only echo all that. Thank you so much. Lastly, again, thank you for this remarkable experience for all of us at Berkshire. We treasure what we call Owners' Day, that opportunity to communicate around what's going on in Berkshire because we're so proud of it, absolutely committed to it and passionately believe in Berkshire.
Melissa 负责组织和执行这一切,但当她遇到问题时——无论是关于股东大会还是其他事务——她都会去找 Marc 寻求答案。他还是我们的公司秘书(Corporate Secretary)。我常说,为了接替 Marc,我们聘请了一位 CFO,还聘请了一位总法律顾问(General Counsel)。我们需要两个人甚至更多的人手才能接替他的工作。Marc,感谢你为 Berkshire 做出的不可思议的贡献。Warren 过去多次强调过这些贡献,我完全赞同。非常感谢你。最后,再次感谢大家为我们 Berkshire 所有人带来这次非凡的体验。我们非常珍视我们称之为“所有者日”(Owners' Day)的这一天,珍视这个围绕 Berkshire 最新动态与大家沟通交流的机会,因为我们深深以此为傲,全心全意投入其中,并满怀热忱地坚信 Berkshire 的未来。
P8174:45:41
Equally, the engagement of all you throughout the day yesterday into this afternoon just greatly appreciated. Thank you and look forward to seeing you next May. Thank you.
同样,非常感谢大家从昨天全天一直到今天下午的积极参与。谢谢大家,期待明年 5 月与你们再见。谢谢。