FY2025Q1 电话会逐字稿
发言人
点击某位发言人,只突出显示其发言;再次点击恢复| 姓名 | 职位 | 机构 | 段落 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Warren Buffett | Chairman and CEO | Berkshire Hathaway | 345 |
| Greg Abel | Vice Chairman of Non-Insurance Operations | Berkshire Hathaway | 70 |
| Ajit Jain | Vice Chairman of Insurance Operations | Berkshire Hathaway | 18 |
| Intermission Guest | Shareholder | Berkshire Shareholder | 15 |
| Subsidiary Executive | Executive | Berkshire Subsidiary | 12 |
| Subsidiary Executive | CEO | Berkshire Subsidiary | 3 |
| 发言人 14 | 3 | ||
| Subsidiary Executive | Executive | Berkshire Subsidiary | 2 |
| Subsidiary Executive | Executive | Berkshire Subsidiary | 2 |
| Subsidiary Executive | Executive | Berkshire Subsidiary | 2 |
| Becky Quick | Anchor and Moderator | CNBC | 84 |
| Mike Santoli | Senior Markets Commentator | CNBC | 47 |
| Benjamin Graham Sanderson | Shareholder | Shareholder (California) | 10 |
| Dashboi Yoon Dizgir | Shareholder | Shareholder (Mongolia) | 8 |
| Contessa Brewer | Correspondent | CNBC | 8 |
| Alitzia Burek | Shareholder | Shareholder (Chicago) | 5 |
| Jackie Han | Shareholder | Shareholder (Toronto) | 4 |
| Patrick Nestor | Shareholder | Shareholder (Florida) | 3 |
| Sasha | Shareholder | Shareholder (Germany) | 3 |
| Dorcas Tang | Shareholder | Shareholder (Hong Kong) | 3 |
| Pig Huang Chen | Shareholder | Shareholder (Taiwan) | 3 |
| ST Jones | Shareholder | Shareholder (Hong Kong) | 2 |
| Daniel | Shareholder | Shareholder (New Jersey) | 2 |
| Marie | Shareholder | Shareholder (Massachusetts) | 2 |
| Peter Chen | Shareholder | Shareholder (Shanghai) | 2 |
| Robert | Shareholder | Shareholder (Toronto) | 2 |
| Brevi Panida | Shareholder | Shareholder (Albania) | 2 |
| Kansas Lohmeier | Shareholder | Shareholder (Omaha) | 2 |
| Sean Siegel | Shareholder | Shareholder (Chicago) | 1 |
● 公司管理层 / 主持人 ● 外部分析师
P00100:00
Greg AbelVice Chairman of Non-Insurance Operations
good.
好的。
P00200:00
Warren BuffettChairman and CEO
Okay. If everyone will please take their seats. This is my is my sixtieth annual meeting, and and it's the biggest and I think it'll be the best yet. And I would before I start, I'd like to give you a few figures from from yesterday because we set all kinds of records. Yesterday we had 19,700 people that joined us in the afternoon between noon and 05:00, that was up from 16,200, which was a previous record the year before.
好的,请大家入座。这是我的第 60 届年度股东大会,也是规模最大的一届,而且我认为这会是迄今为止最棒的一届。在正式开始之前,我想先跟大家分享几个昨天的数据,因为我们创下了各种各样的纪录。昨天下午从中午 12 点到 05:00 之间,有 19,700 人来到现场参加我们的活动,打破了前一年创下的 16,200 人的历史纪录。
P00301:03
And in every aspect, we set records. Sees Candid is $317,000 against 283,000 the year before. And most of these were limited by capacity. I mean, there were there were lines there throughout the total day. Brooks did 310,000.
在各个方面我们都创下了新纪录。喜诗糖果(See's Candies)的销售额达到 317,000 美元,而前一年是 283,000 美元。而且其中大多数展位的销售都受限于接待能力上限,也就是说,几乎一整天那里都排着长队。布鲁克斯(Brooks)跑鞋的销售额达到了 310,000 美元。
P00401:31
Those was all time records sales day for them, and I think they have close to 3,000 runners lined up for Sunday, which is a lot of people to get up. That I I think we've we've had 2,200 or 2,400 before, but but 3,000 and that doesn't count me and it won't count me. And I could go up and down the line. Jazz Jazz wears around 250,000 double the previous years. They they just sell the sashes they can sell.
那创下了他们有史以来的单日最高销售纪录,而且我想他们已经有将近 3,000 名跑步者报名参加周日的长跑活动,能叫醒这么多人起床可真不少。我想我们以前大概有 2,200 人或 2,400 人参加,但这次有 3,000 人——这还没算上我,而且也不会算上我。我还可以顺着名单一路念下去。Jazwares 的销售额大约是 250,000 美元,是往年的两倍。他们简直是能备多少货就能卖出多少。
P00502:08
Most of most every every place had had had people lined up at the at the cash register sometimes for a lot longer wait than wish we had, but but we'll learn the game eventually. And it goes on and on. Every every company set records. And and there's no way of knowing how many people we have here today. We have people listening in around the world.
几乎每一个展位的收银台前都排起了长队,有时候排队等待的时间比我们希望的要长得多,但我们终究会摸清门道、越做越好的。这样的例子不胜枚举,每一家参展公司都创下了纪录。而且我们根本没法统计今天现场到底来了多少人,还有来自世界各地的人们正在收听直播。
P00602:40
But I think we're setting we'll probably set records in a great variety of ways. And I would we're going to have in a minute, we'll get to the question and answer, but I'd like to first introduce our directors. And and I'm I'm Warren Buffett and I was born and bred right here in Omaha. We have Greg Abel, he was born and bred in Canada. And we have a G.
但我想我们正在、也可能会在许多不同的方面创下纪录。再过一会儿我们就进入问答环节,但在此之前我想先介绍一下我们的各位董事。我是沃伦·巴菲特(Warren Buffett),在奥马哈土生土长。我们台上有格雷格·阿贝尔(Greg Abel),他在加拿大土生土长;还有阿吉特·贾恩(Ajit Jain),
P00703:26
Jane who was born and bred in India. We we have a very diverse group. And in the audience, and I will introduce them alphabetically and if they'll stand as I introduce them. And I know it'll be an effort, but withhold your applause till the end so that so that we can get through the list. But we'll start alphabetically with Howard Buffett.
他在印度土生土长。我们是一个非常多元化的团队。在台下就座的各位董事,我将按姓氏字母顺序逐一介绍,请被念到名字的董事起立示意。我知道忍住不鼓掌需要克制一下,但请大家把掌声留到最后,以便我们能顺利把名单念完。按字母顺序,我们从霍华德·巴菲特(Howard Buffett)开始。
P00804:02
Howie would you stand? Withhold the applause and go to his head. Susan Buffett. We have Steve Burke, Ken Chenault, Chris Davis, Sue Decker, Sue's our lead director, Charlotte Diamond, Tom Murphy Junior, Ron Olsen, and I'll have a few and when we finish, I'll have a few more things to add about him. Wally Whites and Merrill Whitmer.
豪伊(Howie),请你站起来一下好吗?请大家先忍住掌声,别让他太得意了。苏珊·巴菲特(Susan Buffett)。接下来是史蒂夫·伯克(Steve Burke)、肯·陈诺特(Ken Chenault)、克里斯·戴维斯(Chris Davis)、苏·德克尔(Sue Decker)——苏是我们的首席独立董事——夏洛特·居曼(Charlotte Guyman)、小汤姆·墨菲(Tom Murphy Jr.)、罗恩·奥尔森(Ron Olson)——等全部介绍完后我还会专门再多说几句关于他的事——沃利·韦茨(Wally Weitz)以及梅里尔·威特默(Meryl Witmer)。
P00904:46
And with that, you've got our all star cast. And Ron, if you don't mind standing, I would like to point out that that Ron, they finally got through an age director thing at at Berkshire. I think we had five that were over 90 here not too long ago, but but we put in the highest Sue tells me anyway that it's the highest age limit that any any of the companies she checked out came up with. But Ron has been on the board for twenty eight years and been associated with Charlie Munger at Munger Tolls for many years beyond that and has been around at a variety of times of crisis and joy and disappointments and surprises and everything else at Berkshire and has been a valuable help to us. I think I think I'd like to give a special hand to Ron Olson.
以上就是我们的全明星阵容。罗恩(Ron),如果你不介意的话请再站起来一下。我想指出的是,伯克希尔最终还是实施了一项董事年龄限制规定。我想就在不久前,我们这里还有 5 位超过 90 岁的老家伙,但我们设定的年龄上限——至少据苏(Sue)告诉我说——是她所调查过的所有公司里最高的。罗恩已经在董事会任职 28 年了,在此之前还与查理·芒格(Charlie Munger)在芒格、托尔斯与奥尔森律师事务所(Munger, Tolles & Olson)共事了更长的时间;在伯克希尔经历危机、喜悦、失望、意外以及种种时刻的过程中,他始终陪伴左右,为我们提供了宝贵的帮助。我想请大家把特别的掌声送给罗恩·奥尔森。
P01006:12
And I think I'll do something else that isn't done usually at annual meetings, but I haven't had a chance. I listened to them on Thursday afternoon. I it's the only it's the only it's the only investment quarterly call that I listen to, but I listen to Tim Cook and I understand. It'll be tough for me to see him from up here, but Tim Cook, there he is. I'm somewhat embarrassed to say that Tim Cook has made the Berkshire a lot more money than I've ever made Berkshire Hathaway.
接下来我想做一件在年度股东大会上通常不会做的事,因为之前一直没机会。周四下午我听了他们的财报电话会——这是我唯一会去听的投资标的季度电话会——我听了蒂姆·库克(Tim Cook)的发言,而且我了解到他今天也在现场。从台上往台下看我很难找到他,但蒂姆·库克就在那儿。我有些不好意思地说,蒂姆·库克为伯克希尔赚到的钱,比我本人为伯克希尔·哈撒韦赚到的还要多得多。
P01106:57
I credit credit should be given to him for I knew Steve Jobs briefly, and Steve, of course, did things that nobody else could have done in developing Apple. But but Steve picked out Tim to succeed him and he really made the right decision. Steve died young, as you know. And nobody but Steve could have created Apple, but nobody could but but Tim could have developed it like it has. So so on behalf of all of Berkshire, thank you.
这份功劳理应归于他。我曾短暂结识史蒂夫·乔布斯(Steve Jobs),史蒂夫在创立和发展苹果(Apple)的过程中当然做到了无人能及的事情。但正是史蒂夫挑选了蒂姆来接替自己,而且他确实做出了无比正确的决定。正如大家所知,史蒂夫英年早逝。除了史蒂夫之外没有人能创造出苹果,但除了蒂姆之外也没有人能把苹果发展到今天这样的高度。因此,我谨代表整个伯克希尔向你表示感谢。
P01207:45
There's a couple other people I'd like to thank. I don't do any work in terms of the show or anything else around Berkshire, but what you see today is the product of a lot of people at Berkshire. They forget, you know, they don't think of themselves as the one who's supposed to screw a light in and leave for somebody else and specialist to come along and do other things. The people of Berkshire put on this this show every year. And, you know, our our chief financial officer and just everybody pitches in.
还有几位人士我也想特别感谢。在筹备这场盛会或伯克希尔周边的其他事务上,我自己其实什么具体工作也没做,大家今天所看到的一切都是伯克希尔众多员工共同努力的成果。他们从不计较分工,不会觉得自己只负责拧好一个灯泡,剩下的事就该甩手留给别人或请专家来做。伯克希尔的员工们每年都亲力亲为办好这场盛会,从我们的首席财务官到每一个人都在出力。
P01308:27
It's a remarkable organization that way. But it's led this year, in the last few years by Melissa Shapiro, and she's made this whole thing work. Melissa? And then we got an idea a while back, well many years ago. Well, I'll take it all the way back.
在这方面,伯克希尔是一个非常了不起的组织。今年以及过去这几年,这项工作都是由梅莉莎·夏皮罗(Melissa Shapiro)牵头负责的,是她让这一切顺利运转起来。梅莉莎在吗?另外,我们在前不久——其实这渊源要追溯到很多年前,我就从最开头讲起吧。
P01409:00
Maybe sixty five years ago, I met Carrie Solva's grandfather and his wife. Well, they had nine children. And Susie and I joined a a playhouse group. And I don't look like the kind of guy that would join a playhouse group, but it would turn out to be a great a great move in many ways. First of all, I enjoyed the place.
大概 65 年前,我结识了凯莉·索瓦(Carrie Sova)的祖父和他的夫人。他们一共育有 9 个孩子。当时苏茜(Susie)和我加入了一个社区剧团(Playhouse)。虽然我看起来实在不像那种会参加剧团的人,但从很多方面来看,那后来证明是一个非常棒的决定。首先,我很喜欢那个地方。
P01509:33
But beyond that, I met not only not only Carrie's grandfather who ran an insurance company in Omaha, Bill Kaiser, but I also met the Pumpkin boys' parents Louis and Francis. In one sort of accident, when I was in my twenties, came up with all kinds of good things. And in connection with Carrie, her father ran a company called, Central States. And later on, we bought that company. And then her father ran the company.
除此之外,我在那里不仅结识了凯莉的祖父——当时在奥马哈经营一家保险公司的比尔·凯泽(Bill Kizer),还结识了布鲁姆金兄弟(Blumkin boys)的父母路易斯(Louis)和弗朗西丝(Frances)。那算是一次偶然的机缘,在我二十多岁的时候带来了一系列美好的事物。再说到凯莉,她的父亲曾经营一家名叫中央州立保险(Central States)的公司。后来我们收购了这家公司,并继续由她父亲负责经营。
P01610:27
Her sister went to work for Berkshire some years ago and then she decided to have a family and subsequently had four kids. So she left, but Kerry moved right in. And Kerry had amazing talent behind just like a good many people do. They they they have talent you don't you don't realize till you give them some responsibility. And so ten or eleven years ago, I asked Carrie to do a fiftieth anniversary book about Berkshire and just use her imagination.
几年前,凯莉的姐姐先来到伯克希尔工作,后来她决定回归家庭并先后生了 4 个孩子,于是离开了公司,而凯莉随即接替了她的岗位。就像许多人一样,凯莉身上蕴藏着惊人的才华——很多人的这种才华,直到你真正把重任交给他们时才会显现出来。于是在十到十一年前,我请凯莉自由发挥想象力,为伯克希尔编写一本 50 周年纪念册。
P01711:13
And and she never she didn't need to check with me or do anything. She just she never edited the book. She never published the book. She never dealt with the printers before. But she just went out and promptly put together this fiftieth anniversary book.
她完全不需要事事向我请示或做任何繁琐的汇报。她此前从未编辑过书籍,从未出版过图书,也从未跟印刷厂打过交道。但她二话不说就行动起来,迅速把这本 50 周年纪念册编撰完成。
P01811:28
And then this year, well, then Carrie, of course, got married and had three kids. So she had to leave us, but but and we have a we go to a baseball game once a year, and we invite some of our distinguished alumni like Carrie to join us. And Carrie, even though she was raising three children, and you may have met one or two of them in the last day or so, she volunteered to bring bring together a sixtieth anniversary book and which I I asked for. And again, she took the whole thing. She just did it.
后来凯莉结婚并生了 3 个孩子,所以也不得不离开了我们。不过我们每年都会一起去看一场棒球赛,并邀请像凯莉这样的杰出前员工回来聚一聚。尽管凯莉正在抚养 3 个孩子——过去一两天里你们在现场或许还见过其中一两个——她还是自告奋勇地答应帮我们编撰一本我所希望看到的 60 周年纪念册。这一次她依然一人挑起大梁,干脆利落地完成了整件事。
P01912:16
She kept doing the things with her kids and every now and then she'd I'd ask her how it was going and she'd tell me how it was going. And so she put together the sixtieth anniversary book and got it done by, you know, maybe a week before the meeting because I I gave her the assignment very late. And yesterday, we sold, I think it was 4,000 plus, four to 4,500 maybe. We we 4,400. We printed 8,000.
她一边照常照顾孩子们,我只是偶尔问问她进展如何,她就跟我说说情况。就这样,她把这本 60 周年纪念册编撰好了,大概在股东大会前一周左右顺利完工,因为我把这项任务交给她的时间实在太晚了。昨天我们一共卖出了大概 4,000 多本——也许有 4 到 4,500 本,准确说是 4,400 本。我们总共印了 8,000 本。
P02012:54
We intended to print 5,000, but so we sold 4,400 books yesterday. And we'll have 30, I guess roughly 3,600 left out there today. And it's kind of a whimsical and but but accurate. And she came out with just the book I hope she would come out with. And and then as we went through this publishing experience, Carrie wouldn't take a dime, but I did get her to name her favorite charity and Stephens Center, takes care of homeless people, and does a great many other things.
我们原本只打算印 5,000 本,而昨天一天就卖掉了 4,400 本。所以今天外面的展区大概还剩 30……我想大概还剩 3,600 本左右。这本书写得妙趣横生而又准确详实,她做出来的完全就是我心目中期望的那本书。在整个出版过程中,凯莉坚持分文不取,但我还是说服她指定了一家她最支持的慈善机构——斯蒂芬中心(Stephen Center),这家机构专门收容和照料无家可归者,并开展了大量公益工作。
P02113:53
It's located about five or six miles from where we are here south, has been doing a wonderful job. Her grandfather helped form it. Her husband has now joined the board, and we are selling 20 copies of this is a commercial place, isn't it? We are selling 20 copies that we sold 10 prior to the meeting. That's all we let them sell.
它位于我们这里往南大约五六英里的地方,工作一直做得非常出色。凯莉的祖父曾协助创立了这家机构,她的丈夫现在也加入了该机构的董事会。我们拿出了 20 本——顺便说一句,这儿可真是个做推销的好地方,不是吗?——我们一共拿出 20 本特别版进行义卖,在大会开始前已经卖出了 10 本,那是我们允许他们提前售出的上限。
P02214:28
And we raised a few hundred thousand dollars doing that. I think we sold one for a hundred thousand dollars. And but we limited it at that to 10. And the only difference in them these and the $25 version is that Carrie and I sound signed them. But we saved six for yesterday, and the six brought a hundred and $48,000, which is a pretty good average per book of about 20 odd thousand dollars.
光是那一部分我们就筹集到了几十万美元,我想其中有一本就拍出了 10 万美元的高价,但我们把提前售出的数量限制在了 10 本。这些特别版和普通 25 美元版本的唯一区别,就是上面有凯莉和我的亲笔签名。我们特意留了 6 本到昨天现场义卖,这 6 本一共筹集到了 14.8 万美元(100,000 加 48,000 美元),平均每本大约 20 多千美元(2 万多美元),相当不错。
P02315:11
And I then I had them say four more. So this afternoon when we disband at 01:00, the area right behind us that has all the goods in it, the bookstore, they will sell the final four. And when we get all through, I'll match whatever we've raised for the the 20 and and we'll give the Steven Center a a boost both in financially, but also in awareness. So anyway, that and when you look at that book, Carrie really did the whole thing. I mean, there's a lot of information in there and she dug through it and and she came through a couple times maybe to check a fact or two.
然后我让他们把最后 4 本留到今天。今天下午 01:00 我们散会之后,就在我们身后那个摆满各类商品的展区书店里,他们将义卖最后这 4 本。等全部卖完之后,我会按照这 20 本筹集到的总额进行等额配捐,从而在资金支持和公众关注度两方面都助斯蒂芬中心一臂之力。总而言之,当你翻看那本书时就会发现,凯莉真是凭一己之力完成了全部工作。书里包含了海量信息,都是她一点点挖掘整理的,期间她大概只找过我一两次核对一两个事实细节。
P02416:03
But she she she got all she got material from the Munger family. She she just did a wonderful job and and and I I couldn't get her to take a penny for it. So I'm gonna ask her to do a lot of other things in the future. With that, I think we've we've covered all the the business. So we will move to Becky.
她还从芒格家族那里收集到了珍贵的资料。她做得实在太棒了,而且我怎么也没法让她收下一分钱报酬。所以我以后还会请她帮忙做更多事情。说到这里,我想开场的各项事务都已经交代完毕了。接下来我们把时间交给贝琪(Becky)。
P02516:35
There's questions that she's received from I don't know how many she's received, but from all over the country and perhaps outside the country. And she's picked out a group of them, which she has not shared with me. And we will alternate questions between Becky and the audience, which we have by zones. And and and with that, I will turn things over to Becky for the first question.
她收到了来自全国各地、甚至还有海外股东发来的许多问题——我也不知道具体有多少封。她从中挑选出了一组问题,事先并没有透露给我。我们将按现场划分的区域,在贝琪挑选的问题和现场观众的提问之间交替进行。下面我就把话筒交给贝琪,请她提出第一个问题。
问答环节
P02617:10
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Thanks, Warren. This first cut question comes from Bill Mitchell. I received more questions about this than any other question. He writes, Warren, in a 02/2003 Fortune article, you argued for imports of certificates to limit trade deficits and said these import certificates basically amounted to a tariff. But recently, you called tariffs an act of economic war.
谢谢你,沃伦。第一个问题来自比尔·米切尔(Bill Mitchell),关于这个话题我收到的问题比其他任何话题都要多。他写道:“沃伦,在 2003 年(02/2003)《财富》(Fortune)杂志的一篇文章中,你曾主张通过‘进口凭证’(import certificates)来限制贸易逆差,并表示这些进口凭证本质上相当于一种关税。但最近你却把关税称为一种‘经济战争行为’。”
P02717:35
Has your view on trade barriers changed, or do you see import certificates as somehow distinct from tariffs?
“你对贸易壁垒的看法是否发生了改变?还是说你认为进口凭证在某种程度上与关税有着本质区别?”
P02817:43
Warren BuffettChairman and CEO
Yeah. The world's import certificates weren't distinct, but they they their goal was to balance imports against exports and so that the trade deficit would not grow in an enormous way. In fact, it would have and it had various other provisions in it to help third world countries at that time as they were called to perhaps catch up a little bit. And they they they had a variety of aspects to them, but basically they were designed to balance trade. And, I think you can make some very good arguments for the fact that balanced trade is good for the world and the more balanced trade there is, the better.
是的。进口凭证在某种程度上确实与关税类似,但它的核心目标是让进口与出口保持平衡,从而避免贸易逆差无休止地恶性膨胀。事实上,当时那套方案里还包含了一些其他条款,旨在帮助当时被称为“第三世界国家”的经济体稍微迎头赶上一些。那套方案考虑到了很多层面,但最根本的设计初衷是为了平衡贸易。我认为,完全有充分的理由证明平衡的贸易对世界是有利的,而且全球贸易越平衡越好。
P02918:33
It will continue to be better for cocoa to be raised in Ghana and coffee and Colombia and a few things. And over time, the American industry has gone from being an agricultural country. This was this was nothing but an ag country. I mean, was virtually and that was only two hundred and fifty years ago. And we have become a very industrial country, and we did not wanna make that a situation, in my view, where we ran greater and greater deficits, building up greater and greater debts against the country.
让可可继续在加纳种植、咖啡继续在哥伦比亚种植,诸如此类的分工合作依然会是更好的选择。随着时间的推移,美国的产业结构已经从最初纯粹的农业国演变过来——要知道,仅仅在 250 年前,这里几乎完全是一个农业国。后来我们发展成了一个高度工业化的国家,而在我看来,我们不应当让这种局面演变成年复一年地出现越来越大的贸易逆差、让整个国家背上越来越沉重的对外债务。
P03019:18
So I I designed this import certificate thing, which Charlie thought was a little rude too much like Rube Goldberg. I don't know whether that time name is but it it's gimmicky. But it's certainly a lot better than anything I I think than we're talking about now. And there's no question that trade trade can be an act of war. And and I think it's led to bad things.
所以我当年设计了这套“进口凭证”方案。查理当时觉得这套东西有点太像“鲁布·戈德堡机械”(Rube Goldberg machine)了——我不知道现在的年轻人还知不知道这个名字——意思就是设计得有点过于繁琐花哨了。但它肯定比我们眼下正在谈论的任何做法都要好得多。毫无疑问,贸易冲突完全可能演变成一种战争行为,而且我认为它已经带来了一些恶劣的后果。
P03119:51
Just the attitudes that's brought out in The United States. I mean, we should be looking to trade with the rest of the world, and we should do what we do best, and they should do what they do best. And, I don't think it That's that's what we did originally. I mean, we were good at producing tobacco and cotton two hundred and fifty years ago, and we and we traded it. And we want a prosperous world with eight countries with nuclear weapons, including a few that are what I would call quite unstable.
光是看看这件事在美国国内引发的那些情绪和态度就知道了。我的意思是,我们应当寻求与世界其他国家开展贸易,我们做我们最擅长的事,他们做他们最擅长的事。这也是我们建国之初的做法——250 年前我们擅长生产烟草和棉花,我们就拿它们去和世界做贸易。我们希望看到一个繁荣的世界。要知道,当今世界上有 8 个拥有核武器的国家,其中还包括几个我称之为相当不稳定的国家。
P03220:40
I do not think it's a great idea to try and design a world where a few countries say, we've won, and other countries are envious. So so my my my import certificate idea, which went no place, I think we've got extra copies, Rob. We've not a great demand for the copies. Anybody did and if you'd like and write the office, I think we could we could probably send you a copy of it. But the main thing to do is not use trade should not be a weapon.
我认为,试图去构建一个只有少数几个国家高呼“我们赢了”、而其他所有国家都心怀嫉妒与怨恨的世界,绝不是什么好主意。至于我当年提出的那个进口凭证构想,最后并没有付诸实施。罗布(Rob),我想我们办公室里应该还有几份当年的文章复印件吧?反正平时也没什么人要。如果大家谁感兴趣,写信到我们办公室来,我们应该可以给你们寄一份复印件。但最核心的原则是:贸易不应当被当成武器。
P03321:23
And The United States United States, we've won. I mean, we have become an incredibly important country starting from nothing. Two hundred and fifty years ago, there's nothing been anything like it. And it's a big mistake in my view when you have seven and a half billion people that don't like you very well, and you got 300,000,000 that are crowing in some way about how well they've done. And I don't think it's right, and I don't think it's wise.
至于美国——我们已经赢了。从白手起家开始,我们已经成为了一个极其重要的国家。回顾过去 250 年的人类历史,从来没有哪个国家取得过这样的成就。但在我看来,当世界上还有 75 亿人并不怎么喜欢你,而你这边的 300,000,000 人却还在以某种方式自吹自擂、炫耀自己混得有多好时,这是一个巨大的错误。我认为这样做是不对的,也是不明智的。
P03422:03
I do think that the more support the more prosperous the rest of the world becomes, it won't be at our expense, the more prosperous we'll become. And within the safer we'll feel and your children will feel someday. So that's but don't don't expect my import certificate ID to go to up down there with Adam Smith's wealth of nations or anything. Okay. Let's go to Area 1.
我坚信,世界其他地区变得越繁荣,绝不会是以牺牲我们的利益为代价的;恰恰相反,他们越繁荣,我们也会变得越繁荣,而且我们以及你们的子孙后代在未来也会感到更加安全。当然,大家也别指望我那个进口凭证的点子能像亚当·斯密(Adam Smith)的《国富论》那样流芳百世。好的,我们请 1 号提问区提问。
P03522:46
ST JonesShareholder, Shareholder (Hong Kong)
Mister Buffett, mister Abel, and mister Jane, Good morning. I'm ST Jones. I'm from Hong Kong. Mister Buffett and mister Munger did a very good and successful investment in Japan in the past five or six years. The recent CPI in Japan is currently above 3%, not far away from its 2% target.
巴菲特先生、阿贝尔先生、贾恩先生,早上好。我叫 ST Jones,来自香港。过去五六年里,巴菲特先生和芒格先生在日本做了一笔非常出色且成功的投资。目前日本最新的消费者物价指数(CPI)已经超过 3%,离其 2% 的目标并不遥远。
P03623:19
Ban of Japan seems very determined in raising rates, while Fed, ECB, and other central banks are considering to cut them. Do you think BOJ, Bank of Japan, makes sense to proceed the rates hike? Will its planned rate hike deter you from further investing Japanese stock market or even considering to realize your current profits? Thank you very much for arranging this greatest event every year. Finally, I wish you healthy always and keep holding this shareholder meeting.
日本央行(BOJ)看起来非常坚定地要推进加息,而与此同时美联储、欧洲央行和其他主要央行却在考虑降息。您认为日本央行继续推进加息的做法合理吗?他们计划中的加息会不会阻止您进一步投资日本股市,甚至让您考虑对目前的持仓获利了结?非常感谢你们每年精心安排这场最伟大的盛会。最后,祝愿您永远健康,继续主持每一届股东大会。
P03724:07
Warren BuffettChairman and CEO
Thank you. Well, I'm gonna extend the same goodwill to Japan that you've just extended to me. I I I all of the people of Japan determine their best course of action in terms of economics. It's it's an incredible story. And five it's been about six years now as you pointed out.
谢谢你。我也想把你刚才对我的这份美好祝愿回赠给日本。我相信日本人民和日本当局完全能够自己判断并决定在经济政策上最适合他们的行动方针。日本所取得的发展成就是一个不可思议的故事。正如你所指出的,距离我们开始这项投资已经过去大约五六年了。
P03824:39
I was just going through a little handbook that probably had two or 3,000 Japanese companies in it. One problem I have is that I can't read that handbook anymore. The print's too small. But the and there were these five trading companies. They have a special name, Form in Japan, but they were selling at ridiculously low prices.
当年我只是在翻阅一本小手册,里面大概收录了两三千家(2,000 或 3,000 家)日本上市公司。我现在面临的一个小问题是再也看不清那本手册了,因为上面的字印得实在太小了。但当时在里面有那五家综合商社——它们在日本有个专门的名称——当时的股价低得简直不可思议。
P03925:09
And so I spent about a year acquiring them and then we got to know the people better and everything that Greg and I saw we liked better as we went along. So we got fairly close to the 10% limit that we'd we told the company we would never exceed without their permission. And so we did ask them recently whether that limit could be relaxed and it's in the process of being relaxed somewhat. We I'd I I would I would say that I'll speak for Greg beyond me that I'll in the next fifty years, and I hope he's running things in. We we won't give a thought to to selling those.
于是我花了大约一年的时间逐步建仓买入它们的股票。随后我们与这些公司的管理层有了更深入的接触,随着了解的深入,格雷格和我所看到的每一件事都让我们对它们越来越满意。后来我们的持股比例渐渐接近了 10% 的上限——我们最初曾向这几家公司承诺,未经他们许可绝不会超过 10%。因此最近我们确实向他们提出申请,询问是否可以适当放宽这一上限,目前这一限制正在逐步放宽的过程中。我想我甚至可以替格雷格表个态:在我身后的未来 50 年里——我希望那时候还是他在掌管大局——我们连卖掉这些股票的念头都不会有。
P04026:01
I mean, they had Japan's record has been extraordinary actually in terms of that. My guess is that Tim would tell you Tim Cook would tell you that iPhone sales there are about as great as any country outside The United States. American Express would tell you that they sell their product very, very well in Japan. Coca Cola that we do business with another big investment of ours. They do extraordinarily well in Japan.
我的意思是,日本在这方面的历史记录实际上是非常卓越的。我猜蒂姆·库克(Tim Cook)会告诉你,iPhone 在日本的销量几乎不逊于美国以外的任何国家;美国运通(American Express)也会告诉你,他们的产品在日本卖得极其出色;还有我们合作的另一项重大投资——可口可乐(Coca-Cola),他们在日本的表现也同样好得惊人。
P04126:38
They have a number of habits in a civilization that operates differently than ours. Japan is by far the biggest. They this is the container they've always preferred. They're soft drinks and and they have they have a whole different sort of distribution system there. But we have been treated extremely well by the five companies.
日本社会有着许多与我们截然不同的生活习惯和文明运作方式。日本是可口可乐非常庞大且独特的市场——比如这种包装容器就是他们一直以来最偏爱的软饮料包装,而且他们在那里有一套完全不同的分销体系。而那五家日本商社对待我们的方式更是无可挑剔。
P04227:08
They they they talk with Greg primarily. I went over there a year or two ago. Greg Greg's Greg's more cosmopolitan than I am, so he he's which isn't saying much actually. But Very little. But he is And I don't know.
他们现在主要是跟格雷格沟通。我一两年前曾亲自去过一趟日本。格雷格比我更具国际视野、更习惯全球奔走——当然,跟我比起来这也不算什么多高的标准,哈哈——但他确实经常和他们交流。格雷格,我不知道——
P04327:35
How many times do you think you've met with representatives of one company to the other?
你觉得自己跟这几家公司的代表大概见过多少次面了?
P04427:39
Greg AbelVice Chairman of Non-Insurance Operations
Yeah. When you think of the five, there's definitely a couple meetings a year, Warren. And I think the thing we're building with the five five companies is, one, it's it's been a very good investment. But we are really, as Warren touched on, we we envision holding the investment for fifty years or or forever. But I think we also are building relationships to do incremental things with each of those companies.
是的,沃伦,算上这五家商社的话,每年肯定都会见上好几次面。我认为我们与这五家公司正在建立的关系,首先当然是一笔回报非常丰厚的投资;但正如沃伦刚才提到的,我们真正设想的是把这项投资持有 50 年甚至永远持有下去。更重要的是,我们正在与他们建立深厚的合作关系,希望能与每一家公司共同开展更多增量业务。
P04528:04
And we really do hope to do big things with them, globally. They bring different perspectives and different opportunities, and we see, and that's the, that's why we're building that long term relationship with them.
我们确实非常希望能与他们携手在全球范围内做成一些大事。他们带来了不同的视角和不同的商业机会,我们看到了这种互补的价值,这也是为什么我们要与他们建立如此长远的合作伙伴关系。
P04628:16
Warren BuffettChairman and CEO
It's long term. And and and they have a much diff- they have a, they have different customs, they have different approaches to business. That's that's true around the world. And and and we're not we we don't have any intention in any way of trying to change what they've done because do because they they do it very successfully. And and our our our main activity is just to is just to cheer and clap.
是的,这是着眼于长远的关系。他们有着不同的商业习俗和不同的经营之道,世界各地莫不如此。我们没有任何意图去改变他们现有的做法,因为他们原本就做得非常成功。我们所做的主要工作,就是在一旁为他们加油鼓掌。
P04728:51
And and that I can still do at 94. So we will own those. You know, we we will we we will not be selling any stock. I mean, that is just it's that that won't happen in in decades if then. And I my guess is that they will find things because they cover the world pretty much, the five trading companies.
而加油鼓掌这件事,我到了 94 岁也还是能做的。所以我们会一直持有这些股票,不会卖出任何一股——在未来几十年里都不会发生,甚至永远不会卖。而且我猜想,由于这五家综合商社的业务网络几乎覆盖全球,他们一定能发掘出各种各样的商业机会。
P04829:30
We will find things occasionally that may be very large for any individual company there. They may, in some way, be assisted by some some help we bring to the situation. But that will be an expanding relationship. It's too bad that Berkshire has gotten as big as it is because we love that position and I'd like it to be a lot larger than than it is. But even with the five companies being they're very large companies and they're large companies in Japan.
偶尔我们也会遇到一些哪怕对其中任何一家单独的商社来说规模都十分庞大的项目,那时候或许可以通过我们所能提供的某种支持来协助达成交易。总之,这将是一种不断拓展的合作关系。唯一遗憾的是伯克希尔现在的体量已经变得太大了——我们非常喜爱这项持仓,真希望能把它的规模做得比现在大得多。尽管这五家公司本身就已经是非常庞大的企业,在日本也是巨头。
P04930:13
And we've got that market that that, you know, in the in the range of $20,000,000,000 invested, but I'd rather I'd rather have a hundred billion than 20,000,000,000. And that's the way I feel about it. Several other investments we have, but size is an enemy of performance at Berkshire, and I don't know any good way to solve that problem. But but Charlie always told me that having a few problems was good for me. I never quite understood that, but he if you listen to him moralize, you would understand.
目前我们在那里的投资市值大约在 20,000,000,000 美元(200 亿美元)左右,但相比于 20,000,000,000 美元,我宁愿我们在里面投了 1,000 亿美元。我对我们持有的好几项其他投资也是同样的感受。在伯克希尔,庞大的资金规模是投资业绩的敌人,而且我想不出有什么好办法能彻底解决这个难题。不过查理生前总是跟我说,有几个难题困扰着我对我有好处。我以前一直没太想明白他这话是什么意思,但如果你听过他那些充满哲理的说教,你大概就能理解了。
P05031:00
And and and it's not an impossible problem at all. It and the Japan the Japan investment is is just been right up our alley. Do you add anything on this?
当然,这也绝不是一个无法克服的问题。而且我们在日本的这项投资简直太对我们的胃口了。格雷格,关于这一点你还有什么要补充的吗?
P05131:16
Greg AbelVice Chairman of Non-Insurance Operations
I think, you've touched it, but, as you said, it's right up our alley and I I absolutely agree, Warren. I I do believe we'll see some very large opportunities long term. Sure. And that and that's just been a great plus of that that relationship.
我觉得你已经讲得很全面了。正如你所说,这确实非常对我们的胃口,我完全同意,沃伦。我坚信从长远来看,我们一定会看到一些规模非常可观的合作机会。毫无疑问,这是这段合作关系带来的巨大附加价值。
P05231:32
Warren BuffettChairman and CEO
Yeah. Yeah. I would say that they they want or they would like to present us with opportunities. We would like to receive them. We've got the money.
是的。我想说,他们很愿意向我们推荐商业机会,而我们也很乐意接手这些机会。我们手里有充裕的资金。
P05331:43
We both get along well very well with each other. And they have different they have some different customs than than we have. They drink the number one Coca Cola product. They drink over there something called Georgia coffee. So I'm I'm I haven't converted them to Cherry Coke and they're not gonna convert me to Washington and Georgia coffee.
我们彼此之间相处得非常融洽。当然,他们有一些和我们不同的生活习惯。比如可口可乐在日本销量第一的产品,是他们在当地喝的一种叫“乔治亚咖啡”(Georgia Coffee)的饮料。所以我既没能说服他们改喝樱桃味可口可乐(Cherry Coke),他们也别想说服我改喝乔治亚咖啡。
P05432:06
But it's a it's a perfect relationship. I just wish we had could get more like it. And I never dreamt of that when I picked up that little wasn't so little, was about that thick, but sometimes two companies to a page and and a couple thousand pages, believe. But it's amazing what you can find when you just turn turn the page. We showed a movie last year that about turn every page.
但这确实是一段完美的关系,我只希望我们能找到更多像这样的投资机会。当初我拿起那本小册子——其实也不算小,大概有这么厚,有时一页印两家公司,我记得足足有两千来页——的时候,做梦也没想到会有今天这样的收获。当你愿意一页一页去翻阅时,你能发现的东西真是令人惊叹。去年我们在大会上放过一部短片,讲的就是“翻阅每一页”(Turn Every Page)。
P05532:42
And I would say that turning every page is one important ingredient to bring to the investment field. It and very few people do turn every page and the ones who turn every page aren't going to tell you what they're finding. So you you gotta do a little of it yourself. Okay. Becky?
我想说,“翻阅每一页”是投资领域里极其重要的一项基本功。现实中很少有人真正去一页页翻阅,而那些真正把每一页都翻遍了的人,是绝对不会主动跑来告诉你他们发现了什么宝贝的。所以你必须自己亲自动手去翻。好的,贝琪?
P05633:13
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
This next question comes from Advait Prasad in New York. He writes, today, Berkshire holds over $300,000,000,000 in cash and short term investments representing about 27% of total assets, a historically high figure compared to the 13% average over the last twenty five years. This has also led Berkshire to effectively own nearly five percent of the entire US treasury market. Beyond the need for liquidity to meet insurance obligations, is the decision to raise cash primarily a derisking strategy in response to high market valuations, or is it also a deliberate effort to position Berkshire's balance sheet for a smooth smoother leadership transition providing Greg Abel with maximum flexibility and a clean slate for future capital allocation decisions. And I will add one line from another shareholder, Mike Conway, who asks, are you encouraged you may see some fat pitches coming your way?
下一个问题来自纽约的阿德瓦特·普拉萨德(Advait Prasad)。他写道:“如今,伯克希尔持有超过 300,000,000,000 美元(3,000 亿美元)的现金和短期投资,占总资产的约 27%,与过去 25 年 13% 的平均水平相比处于历史高位。这也使得伯克希尔实际上持有了整个美国国库券市场近 5% 的份额。除了满足保险业务赔付所需的流动性之外,决定储备如此庞大现金的主要原因,究竟是为了应对当前高企的市场估值而采取的去风险策略,还是为了协助管理层平稳交接而刻意对伯克希尔资产负债表做出的安排——以便为格雷格·阿贝尔(Greg Abel)未来的资本配置决策提供最大的灵活性和一张干净的画布?”我再顺便加上另一位股东迈克·康威(Mike Conway)的一句话提问:“你是否感到乐观,觉得不久就会有一些绝佳的‘好球’(fat pitches)向你飞来?”
P05734:14
Warren BuffettChairman and CEO
Yeah. Well, I wouldn't do anything nearly so noble as to withhold investing myself just so that Greg could look good later on. Now if he if he gets any edge when I leave, I'll resent it. So the now the the amount of cash we have is we we we would spend well, we came pretty close to spending 10,000,000,000 not that long ago, for But we'd spend a hundred billion. I mean, and and and those decisions are not tough to make.
哈哈,我可不会做出那么高风亮节的事——特意克制自己不去投资,只为了让格雷格以后接手时显得更漂亮。要是他在我离开后占到了什么便宜,我可是会嫉妒的。言归正传,关于我们目前持有的现金规模,只要有合适的机会我们随时愿意花出去——事实上,就在不久前我们差点就花出了 10,000,000,000 美元(100 亿美元),而且就算要花掉 1,000 亿美元我们也毫不犹豫。做这种决定对我们来说一点也不难。
P05835:01
When when something is offered that is that makes sense to us and that we understand and offers good value and where we don't worry about losing. And the one problem with the investment business is that things don't come along in an orderly fashion and they never will. I mean, it isn't like every day. You know, the long term record is sensational, but that is not a product. And I've been in see, I've had two hundred trading days times eighty years.
前提是摆在我们面前的标的必须合乎情理、是我们能够理解的、提供了良好的价值,而且我们无需担心会遭受永久性本金亏损。但投资这门生意最大的问题在于,好机会从来不会按部就班、整整齐齐地排队出现,永远不会。它不像每天上班打卡那样规律。虽然我们的长期投资记录看起来非常亮眼,但这并不是靠每天均匀产出得来的。算起来,我从事投资已经 80 年,每年大约 200 个交易日。
P05935:44
I'm yeah, man. It's it's sixteen million trading days. It'd be kind of I mean, thousand trading days. It it would be nice if every day you got four opportunities or something like that and, you know, you could and they were expected to be equally attractive. You know, if I if I was running a numbers racket, you know, every day would have the same expectancy of that I would keep 40% of whatever the handle was.
加起来就是 1,600 万个交易日——哦不对,是 16,000 个交易日。如果这 16,000 个交易日里,每天都能冒出 4 个同样诱人的好机会任你挑选,那当然再好不过了。就好比如果我经营的是某种数字博彩盘口,每天的数学期望值都完全一样,无论总投注额是多少,我都能稳稳抽走 40% 的流水。
P06036:18
And so the only question would be is how much would transact it. But we're not running that kind of a business. So we're running a business which is very, very, very opportunistic. And Charlie always thought I did too many things. He thought if we did about five things in our lifetime, we could we could we'd end up doing better than if we did 50 and and and that we never concentrated enough.
那样的话,唯一需要关心的问题就是每天能做大多大的交易量。但我们经营的不是那种生意,我们所从事的是一门高度依赖机会主义的生意。查理生前总觉得我出手次数太多了。他认为,如果我们一辈子只做大约 5 笔投资,最终取得的成绩反而会比做 50 笔投资更好,他还认为我们的持仓集中度远远不够。
P06136:51
So that we would rather have, if we've got 335,000,000,000 now in treasuries, we would rather have conditions that have developed where we would have like 50,000,000,000 or something like that. But that that just isn't the way the business works. And we have made a lot of money by not wanting to be fully invested at all times. And we don't think it's improper actually for people who are passive investors just to make a few simple investments and sit with their life sit for their life in them. But we've made the decision to be in the business, so we think we can do a little better than that by behaving in a very irregular manner.
所以,虽然我们现在账上有大约 335,000,000,000 美元(3,350 亿美元)的国库券,但我们宁愿市场环境已经让我们把现金一路花到了只剩 50,000,000,000 美元(500 亿美元)左右。只不过投资这门生意根本不是按人的主观愿望运转的。事实上,正因为我们不强求在任何时候都保持满仓投资,我们才赚到了很多钱。当然,对于普通被动投资者来说,简单买入几只宽基指数或优质资产并伴随终生,我们认为这完全没有问题;但既然我们选择了以主动投资和资本配置为业,我们就认为可以通过采取一种非常不规则、耐心等待出击的策略,做得比被动投资更好一些。
P06237:50
But if you told me that I had to invest well, our let's say that we have a roughly 40,000,000,000 a year coming in, and we start with $3.35. If you told me I had to invest 50,000,000,000 every year till we got down to 50,000,000,000, that would be the dumbest thing in the world to invest in that manner. Things get extraordinarily attractive very occasionally. The long term trend is up. Nobody knows.
假设我们每年大约有 40,000,000,000 美元(400 亿美元)的现金流入,期初手里有 3,350 亿美元(即 3.35 千亿美元)。如果你硬要规定我每年必须投出去 50,000,000,000 美元(500 亿美元),直到把现金储备降到 50,000,000,000 美元(500 亿美元)为止,那将是世界上最愚蠢的投资方式。极具吸引力的机会只是偶尔才会出现。长远来看市场整体趋势是向上的,但至于短期走势,没有人知道。
P06338:28
And I certainly don't know. Greg doesn't know. Ajit doesn't know. Nobody knows what the market is going to do tomorrow, next week, next month. Nobody knows what business is gonna do tomorrow, next week, or next month.
我肯定不知道,格雷格不知道,阿吉特也不知道。没有人知道股市明天、下周或下个月会怎么走;也没有人知道宏观经济和工商业明天、下周或下个月会怎么走。
P06438:41
But they spend all their time talking about it because it's easy to talk about. And but it it has no value. I've never found anybody I wanted to listen to on the subject. And the on the other hand, I found that leafing through things like that big Japanese book that I can't read anymore. The that's it's a that's a treasure hunt.
但人们却把所有时间都花在谈论这些事情上,因为高谈阔论这些东西最容易。然而这毫无价值,在这个话题上我从未遇到过任何值得我倾听的人。相反,我发现去一页页翻阅像那本我现在已经看不清字了的厚厚日本公司手册之类的资料,才是一场真正的寻宝之旅。
P06539:10
And every now and then you find something and occasionally, very occasionally, but it'll happen again. It I don't know when. It won't it could be next week. It could be five years off, but it won't be fifty years off. He will have we will be bombarded with offerings that that we'll be glad we have the cash for.
每隔一段时间你就会在里面发现一些宝贝。虽然极其罕见,但那样的时刻一定会再次到来。我不知道具体会是什么时候——也许就在下周,也许还要等上五年,但绝不会要等上五十年。到那时,各种各样的投资机会将像潮水般向我们涌来,我们会无比庆幸自己手里握有充足的现金。
P06639:37
And it'd be a lot more fun if it would happen tomorrow, but it's very unlikely to happen tomorrow. Very, very unlikely to happen tomorrow. But it's not unlikely to happen in five years, and then it gets the probabilities get higher as you go along. It's kind of like death. I mean, if you're 10 years old, the chances that you're gonna die the next day are low, get to be a hundred and 15 or something like that, it's almost a cinch.
如果这种机会明天就出现,那当然会好玩得多,但它明天就发生的概率微乎其微,简直太不可能了。不过,在未来五年内发生的可能性就完全不低了,而且随着时间推移,它发生的概率会越来越高。这就好比死亡一样:如果你只有 10 岁,你明天去世的概率极低;但如果你活到了 115 岁(100 加 15 岁)左右,那几乎就是板上钉钉的事了。
P06740:05
Particularly if you're a male. I mean all the records are held by females in terms of age and I tried to get Charlie to have a sex change so he could test out whether and he did pretty well for being a male. I'll put it that way. Okay. Station station two.
尤其是如果你身为男性的话——毕竟人类长寿纪录全都是由女性保持的。我以前曾试着劝查理去做个变性手术,好检验一下能不能打破纪录,不过作为男性他能活到那个岁数已经相当了不起了。我就这么说吧。好的,请 2 号提问区提问。
P06840:39
Jackie HanShareholder, Shareholder (Toronto)
Good morning, Warren, Greg, and Ajit. My name is Jackie Han. I'm from China and now work in Toronto, Canada. This is my eighth Berkshire Hathaway meetings at this point. I've probably spent more time with you than most people spend on Netflix.
早上好,沃伦、格雷格和阿吉特。我叫杰基·韩(Jackie Han),来自中国,目前在加拿大多伦多工作。算上这次,这已经是我第 8 次参加伯克希尔·哈撒韦的股东大会了。我花在你们身上的时间,大概比大多数人刷奈飞(Netflix)的时间还要多。
P06940:55
As you might guess, coming from a Chinese family, we've always had a soft spot for real estate. So the your question isn't why don't you own a house, it's why are you still buying stocks instead of more property. So here is my question. With today's high interest rates and the global uncertainty, do you still believe in being greedy when others are fearful or the value investing facing new challenges in today's environment? Thank you.
正如您可能猜到的那样,我来自一个华人家庭,我们对房地产一直情有独钟。所以家里人问我的问题从来不是“你为什么不买房”,而是“你为什么还在买股票而不是多买几套房”。因此我的问题是:在如今的高利率环境和全球不确定性之下,您是否依然坚信“在别人恐惧时贪婪”?还是说价值投资在今天的环境下面临着新的挑战?谢谢。
P07041:23
Yeah.
好的。
P07141:24
Warren BuffettChairman and CEO
Well, in respect to real estate, it's so much harder than stocks in terms of negotiation of deals, time spent, the involvement of multiple parties in the ownership usually when when when real estate gets in trouble, you find out you're dealing with more than equity holder. But there have been times when large amounts of real estate have changed hands at bargain prices. But usually stocks were cheaper, but they were a lot easier to do. So Charlie did more real estate. Charlie enjoyed real estate transactions.
说到房地产,在交易谈判、耗费的时间精力以及产权往往牵涉多方利益相关者等方面,它比股票投资要繁琐困难得多——尤其是当房地产项目陷入困境时,你会发现自己需要打交道的对象远不止股权持有人这一方。当然,历史上也确实有过大量房地产以低廉价格易手的时期,但通常在那种时候,股票的价格往往更加便宜,而且交易起来要容易得多。查理生前做过更多的房地产投资,他很享受房地产交易的过程。
P07242:13
And he actually did a fair number of them in the last five years of his life. But he was, you know, he was playing a game then, and it was an interesting game to him. But I think if he you'd asked him to make a choice when he was 21, he had to either be in stocks exclusively the rest of his life or, let's say, the rest of his life, he would have chosen stocks in the second. And the there's just so much more opportunity, at least in The United States, there's so much more opportunity that presents itself in the security market than it does in real estate. And in real estate, you're dealing with a usually dealing with a single owner or a family that owns maybe a large property they've had a long time.
事实上,在他生命的最后五年里,他还做了相当数量的房地产交易。但那时候他其实是在玩一场游戏,对他而言那是一场很有意思的游戏。不过我想,如果你在他 21 岁那年让他做一个二选一的决定——余生只能纯做股票投资,或者余生只能纯做房地产投资——他一秒钟都不会犹豫就会选择股票。至少在美国是如此,证券市场所呈现出来的机会远远多于房地产市场。在房地产领域,你的交易对手往往是单一业主,或者是长期持有一处大型物业的某个家族。
P07343:10
Maybe they've borrowed too much money against them. Maybe the population trends are against them. But but to them, it's an enormous decision. When you walk down to the New York Stock Exchange, you can do billions of dollars worth of business totally anonymous, and you can do it in five minutes. And the trades are complete when they're complete.
也许他们以这些物业作抵押借了太多债,也许人口迁移趋势正在变得对他们不利,但无论如何,卖掉物业对他们来说都是一个极其重大的决定。相比之下,当你走进纽约证券交易所,你可以完全匿名地完成价值数十亿美元的交易,而且五分钟之内就能搞定,交易一旦达成就是板上钉钉。
P07443:30
In real estate, when you make a deal, a big deal with a distressed lender, it you know, when you sign the deal, then you go into another phase. I mean, then people start negotiating more things and more things, and and it's it's it's a whole different game. And a different type of person to some extent enjoys the game. We we we did a few real estate deals that came our way in 02/1989, but but the amount of time that they would take us compared to doing something intelligent and probably better And securities, there was just no comparison. I mean, in a real estate deal, every sentence is as important as a person and in stocks.
而在房地产行业,当你跟陷入困境的贷款方谈妥一笔大交易并签下协议时,那往往才只是进入了下一个阶段——紧接着各方就会开始就越来越多的细节没完没了地讨价还价,那完全是另一套游戏规则。在某种程度上,只有特定性格的人才会享受那种博弈。我们在 2008 至 2009 年前后(原文误作 02/1989)也做过几笔主动找上门来的房地产交易,但它们耗费的时间精力,与我们在证券市场上做一些既明智又往往回报更好的投资相比,简直没有可比性。在房地产交易合同里,每一个句子都至关重要;而在股票交易中则简单直接得多。
P07544:29
If somebody needs to sell 20,000 shares of Berkshire or something and they call us and the price is right, it's done in five seconds. And and it closes all the time. People who you certainly wouldn't want to marry your daughter or they behave well actually in stocks. Partly that's because they're probably having their their wires or phones or whatever it is recorded as to what they've said and everything. But but the the completion rate for working on anything in stocks is if assuming you got a meeting in the minds on prices, essentially a % in real estate.
如果有人需要卖出 20,000 股伯克希尔股票之类的,他们打个电话给我们,只要价格合适,5 秒钟之内交易就敲定了,而且每次都能顺利交割。在股票市场上,哪怕是那些你绝对不愿意把女儿嫁给他的家伙,在交易履约时表现得也相当守规矩——部分原因大概是他们的电话线或通话录音都在监管记录之下,说过的每一句话都有据可查。但在股票交易中,只要双方在价格上达成一致,交易的最终完成率基本上是 100%;而在房地产领域,
P07645:19
It just begins when you agree on deals and that they take forever. That for a guy 94, it's it's not it's not the most interesting thing to get involved in something where the where the negotiations could take years. And we we have the capability. There have been some huge failures in in in in fact, it it if go all the way back to Zechendorf in the 1960s, he was gonna change the world and Century City out in California is a product of his. If you go to Uris, if you go to he was sitting on top of the world with the Eurus buildings.
当你谈妥交易意向时,漫长的拉锯战才刚刚开始,而且往往旷日持久。对于一个 94 岁的老人来说,卷入一场谈判可能要拖上好几年的交易,实在不是什么最有趣的事情。当然我们完全具备这方面的能力。房地产历史上也曾出现过许多惊天动地的大溃败——如果一路往回追溯到 1960 年代的威廉·泽肯多夫(William Zeckendorf),他当年雄心勃勃想要改变世界,加州的世纪城(Century City)就是他的手笔;还有尤里斯兄弟(Uris Brothers),当年凭借尤里斯大厦(Uris Buildings)也曾站在世界之巅。
P07746:09
People tend to get in trouble in that business. The banks usually don't want to recognize it, but that takes a long time to go through the through the bank processes. They just got through redoing the Musk loan that he made when he was buying it three years ago, the company that's now X. And, you know, three years to work out a transaction that where you've got parties on both sides We find it much better when people are just ready to pick up the phone and you can do hundreds of millions of dollars worth of business in a day.
人们在房地产这门生意里很容易因为高杠杆而陷入困境。银行通常不愿轻易确认坏账损失,走完银行的处置流程又要花上漫长的时间。就像银行界最近才刚刚把埃隆·马斯克(Elon Musk)三年前收购那家现在叫 X 的公司时所借的并购贷款重组完毕——哪怕买卖双方都已经达成交易,后续理顺债权债务居然还花了整整三年时间。相比之下,我们觉得还是有人随时拿起电话就能在一天之内做成几亿美元生意的股票市场要好得多。
P07846:53
I've been spoiled, but I like being spoiled, so we'll keep it that way. Okay. Becky.
我已经被股票市场的这种高效惯坏了,而且我很喜欢被这么惯着,所以我们会继续保持这种交易方式。好的,贝琪。
P07947:02
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
This question comes from Sam England in San Francisco, and and it's for Warren and Ajit. As AI systems become more capable and harder to interpret, how do you see that affecting the insurance industry's ability to assess price and transfer risk? Are there parallels to past disruptions Berkshire has navigated in underwriting or capital allocation?
这个问题来自旧金山的山姆·英格兰(Sam England),是提给沃伦和阿吉特的:“随着人工智能(AI)系统的能力越来越强、同时也变得越来越难以解释,你们认为这会如何影响保险行业评估风险、风险定价以及风险转移的能力?这与伯克希尔过去在承保或资本配置中经历过的颠覆性变革是否有相似之处?”
P08047:29
Warren BuffettChairman and CEO
Okay, Becky. And and she's got about a hundred points of IQ on me, and he's just gonna be here this morning. So I'm gonna let him answer the question first.
好的,贝琪。阿吉特的智商大概比我高出 100 分,而且他今天只在上午场的会议出席,所以我请他先来回答这个问题。
P08147:38
Ajit JainVice Chairman of Insurance Operations
Well, there is no question in my mind that AI is gonna be a real game changer. And it's gonna change the way we assess risk, we price risk, we sell the risk, and then the way we end up paying claims. Having said that, I certainly also feel that people end up spending enormous amount of money trying to chase the next new new fashionable thing. We are not very good in terms of being the being the fastest or the first mover. Our approach is more to wait and see until the opportunity crystallizes and we have a better point of view in terms of risk of failure, upside, downside.
在我看来,毫无疑问人工智能(AI)将成为一个真正改变游戏规则的技术。它将改变我们评估风险、为风险定价、销售保险产品以及最终处理理赔的方式。话虽如此,我也确实觉得,许多人在追逐下一个时髦新潮流的过程中往往会盲目烧掉巨额资金。在争当动作最快的人或“先行者”这方面,我们并不擅长。我们一贯的做法是耐心观察等待,直到商业机会真正清晰成型,并且我们对失败的风险、潜在的上行空间和下行风险有了更透彻的把握。
P08248:24
So right now, the individual insurance operations do dabble in AI and try and figure out what is the best way to exploit it. But we have not yet made a conscious big time effort in terms of pouring a lot of money into this opportunity. And my guess is we will be in a state of readiness. And should that opportunity pop up, we'll be in a state where we'll jump in promptly.
因此目前,我们旗下的各个独立保险业务部门确实在尝试接触和应用 AI,努力摸索利用这项技术的最佳方式;但我们尚未有意识地大举投入巨资去豪赌这一机会。我预计我们会保持随时准备就绪的状态,一旦真正的重大机遇显现,我们就能够迅速切入。
P08348:52
Warren BuffettChairman and CEO
Yeah. And I would just add, I wouldn't trade. I wouldn't trade everything that's developed in AI in the next ten years for for a g. So if you gave me a choice that gave me a choice of having a hundred billion dollars available to participate in the insurance property casualty insurance business for the next ten years, and a choice of getting the top AI product out of whoever's whoever's developing it or having a Jeep making the decision, I would I would take a Jeep any time. And I'm not kidding about that.
是的。我还想补充一点:就算拿未来十年人工智能领域研发出来的一切成果来跟我换阿吉特(Ajit),我也绝不会换。如果你给我一个选择——让我在未来十年里拥有 1,000 亿美元资金去参与财产与意外险业务,然后让我从“获得无论哪家顶尖机构开发出的最强 AI 产品”和“由阿吉特来做决策”之间二选一,我随时都会毫不犹豫地选择阿吉特。我这话绝不是在开玩笑。
P08449:46
Okay. Station three.
好的,请 3 号提问区提问。
P08549:52
Sean SiegelShareholder, Shareholder (Chicago)
Hello. I'm Sean Siegel from Chicago, Illinois. Thank you for investing your time to you and the executive committee for putting on this meeting and for bringing together a diverse group of people and in attendance under one roof. Out of all the companies that Berkshire Hathaway owns, there was one that you acquired, the Chicago based company Portillo's Hotdogs. How did you know that this would be a good fit for the overall company's portfolio?
您好,我是来自伊利诺伊州芝加哥的肖恩·西格尔(Sean Siegel)。感谢您和执委会投入宝贵的时间举办这次盛会,将如此多元化的群体汇聚在同一屋檐下。在伯克希尔·哈撒韦旗下的众多企业中,有一家你们收购的芝加哥本土公司——波蒂略热狗(Portillo's Hot Dogs)。当时你们是怎么判断出这家公司非常适合纳入伯克希尔整体投资组合的呢?
P08650:28
Warren BuffettChairman and CEO
Well, I'll have to ask Greg about that because I don't know anything about it. So maybe he bought it when I was looking the other way.
呃,这个问题我得问问格雷格了,因为我对这家公司一无所知。没准是他趁我没注意的时候偷偷买下来的。
P08750:39
Greg AbelVice Chairman of Non-Insurance Operations
I think I gotta call a friend on this one. Yeah. I I
我想这道题我得申请“场外求助”了。是的,我——
P08850:47
Warren BuffettChairman and CEO
we we own a lot of companies, but I do like to think I know most of them. But but the maybe a subsidiary of a subsidiary in some way, but but I I really don't know a thing about it. I'm sorry to Yeah. That may be a good thing. I do know something about hot dogs, though.
我们旗下确实拥有许许多多家公司,但我自认为绝大部分我还是知道的。不过它也许是某家子公司旗下的孙公司,或者是通过某种间接方式持有的,但我对它确实一无所知,非常抱歉。哈哈,这倒也许是件好事——不过我对热狗本身还是挺了解的。
P08951:06
Sorry.
实在抱歉。
P09051:06
Greg AbelVice Chairman of Non-Insurance Operations
And and we do have a lot of companies in Chicago, Warren Yeah. Through Marmon. And it that's been a great opportunity where we've accumulated a variety of, excellent companies under that portfolio. But as you noted, I don't believe Portillo's fault under that. Yeah.
沃伦,我们在芝加哥确实拥有很多家企业,主要是通过马蒙集团(Marmon)持有的。那是一个非常棒的平台,我们在那个投资组合下汇聚了各式各样极其优秀的企业。但正如你刚才所说,我也不记得波蒂略热狗(Portillo's)属于马蒙旗下。
P09151:26
Warren BuffettChairman and CEO
No. I I look at I I look at the financial statements of about, yeah, perhaps 50 or 60 of our companies every every month. But in the case of Marmon, for example, Marmon itself owns over a hundred companies. And Yeah. It was the creature of it was created by Jay Pritzker and and his brother Bob.
是的。我每个月大概会审阅我们旗下 50 或 60 家主要子公司的财务报表。但就拿马蒙集团(Marmon)来说,马蒙自己旗下就拥有超过 100 家公司。它是杰伊·普利兹克(Jay Pritzker)和他的兄弟鲍勃(Bob Pritzker)一手创立的杰作。
P09252:00
And it was a remarkable company when we bought it, but it was highly diversified already and then we've diversified it further. So it is it is something of a Berkshire within Berkshire. And we found we found that that's working very good as arrangement. It was interesting. Gay Pritzker was a remarkable manager and there's various branches of the Pritzker family so you'll it really goes back to A and Pritzker before J and so on.
当我们收购马蒙时,它就已经是一家非常了不起且高度多元化的企业了,随后我们又进一步拓展了它的多元化程度。因此,它就像是“伯克希尔内部的又一个伯克希尔”,而且我们发现这种组织架构运转得非常出色。说起这个很有意思,杰伊·普利兹克是一位卓越的管理者。普利兹克家族有好几个分支,最早可以追溯到杰伊之前的 A.N. 普利兹克(A.N. Pritzker)等等。
P09352:44
But in 1954, they changed the federal tax code very dramatically in The United States. It was quite a blow to me because I've been at Columbia and I've been reading a JK Lasser book about the tax code and then they went and changed the whole damn thing. But '54 was a big year, a big change. Those years come every now and then like 1986 and and you may see a big one one of these days. And there was a company called Rockwood Chocolates in Brooklyn, and they made Rockwood chocolate bits which we used to sell at the Buffett grocery store and people made chocolate chip cookies out of them and everything.
1954 年,美国对联邦税法进行了一次幅度极大的修订。那对我来说真是个不小的打击,因为我之前在哥伦比亚大学读书时,刚把 J.K. 拉瑟(J.K. Lasser)编写的税法指南背得滚瓜烂熟,结果他们转头就把整部税法改得面目全非。不过 54 年(1954 年)确实是税制大变革的一年——这种大改每隔一段时间就会出现一次,比如 1986 年那次,未来某一天你们或许也会再见证一次。当时在布鲁克林有一家名叫洛克伍德巧克力(Rockwood & Co.)的公司,生产洛克伍德巧克力碎粒(chocolate bits),我们巴菲特杂货店以前常卖这种产品,人们用它来做巧克力曲奇饼干等等。
P09453:38
And then it turned out that cocoa, which lately has had a big run to, cocoa was 5¢ a pound in 1941 when LIFO was first allowed for for insurance for for tax purposes. And the Rockwood Charter Company went into on the LIFO message, so they they owned, like, 30,000,000 or thereabouts of Coco. And then Coco took a run-in 1955, and I just moved to New York. And there was a provision in the new tax code that if you were in two or more companies and you did certain things and you've been in them for five years and you got out of one of them, that there would be no capital gains tax on LIFO inventory gains. And tax rates were around 48%, maybe 52%.
后来可可豆价格迎来了一波大涨——就像最近可可豆价格也暴涨了一样。1941 年美国税法首次允许企业采用后进先出法(LIFO)进行存货计价时,可可豆的价格只有每磅 5 美分。洛克伍德巧克力公司采用了后进先出法(LIFO),账上拥有大约 30,000,000 磅(3,000 万磅)的可可豆库存。到了 1955 年,可可豆价格一路飙升,而我当时刚刚搬到纽约工作。1954 年出台的新税法里有一项特殊条款规定:如果一家公司同时经营两项或多项已有 5 年以上历史的业务,并且剥离退出其中一项业务,那么用该业务直接向股东分配后进先出法(LIFO)存货时,存货增值部分无需缴纳企业资本利得税——要知道当时的企业税率高达 48% 甚至 52% 左右。
P09554:45
And so you there was this huge profit because because the cocoa had gone up in price, but that made it terrible for them in selling Rockwood chocolate bits because the price of retail of the chocolate bits did not match what was going on at wholesale. Something almost identical has been happening in the chocolate business. Recently, Hershey chocolate just came out and said they're going to have a bad quarter, and we're paying $4.50 a pound for chocolate from cocoa because things are going on in West Africa that that make cocoa prices go up dramatically. In any event, Jay Pritzker bought control of Rockwood, the chocolate company. And like I say, I was 24 or five years old and they called the meeting to split off the two one of the chocolate businesses in a way that would enable them to recognize the gain on these cocoa beans without paying 50%, roughly 50% federal taxes on the gain.
虽然因为可可豆价格暴涨,洛克伍德账面上坐拥巨额的存货浮盈,但这却让他们的洛克伍德巧克力碎粒销售业务陷入了困境,因为零售端的巧克力碎粒售价根本无法覆盖批发端飙升的可可豆成本。几乎一模一样的事情最近正在巧克力行业重演:好时巧克力(Hershey)刚刚发布公告称他们将面临一个糟糕的季度,由于西非可可产区发生的一系列问题导致可可价格暴涨,现在采购可可的价格高达每磅 4.50 美元。不管怎样,当年杰伊·普利兹克(Jay Pritzker)收购并控股了洛克伍德这家巧克力公司。正如我所说,当时我只有 24 或 25 岁,他们召开了一次股东大会,准备将旗下两项巧克力业务中的一项分拆出去,通过这种巧妙的架构设计来兑现那些可可豆的巨额增值收益,同时无需为这笔收益缴纳约 50%(大致 50%)的联邦税。
P09656:01
So I went to the meeting, which was in Brooklyn, and nobody was there. This is in the turn every page category, except one guy, and I was 24 and he was 29, and it was Jay Pritzker. And nobody had showed up at the meeting and it was kind of a crummy building they had, but they had a lot of corporal there. And Jay just gave me a lecture or a a lesson really, I should say, on on the tax code. And I made it with that.
于是我去了在布鲁克林举行的股东大会,现场空无一人。这就属于“翻遍每一页”的那类经历——现场除了我只有一个人,当时我24岁,他29岁,他就是杰伊·普利兹克(Jay Pritzker)。没有别人来参加会议,他们那栋楼破破烂烂的,但里面存放着大量可可豆(原文误听为corporal)。杰伊当场给我上了一堂课,确切地说是关于税法的一课。我由此获益匪浅。
P09756:33
Could have gone to graduate school for years and never learned as much as he did. And then later, we actually bought the company, that Rockwood company, but after he did some other things, became the basis for Marmon. And Marmon, among other things, developed the car that won the first Indianapolis Speedway race, and it invented the rear view mirror, which I'm not sure is a great great advantage in economics or anything. But but the guy that would that used to have on the Indianapolis five hundred, had two people in the car. One guy was to look back and see what the other people were doing and the other guy was to drive the car.
哪怕去读好几年研究生,也学不到他教给我的那么多东西。再后来,我们实际上买下了那家公司——即洛克伍德(Rockwood)公司在他做了其他几番运作之后演变成的马蒙集团(Marmon)的基础。马蒙集团除了其他业务外,还研制出了赢得首届印第安纳波利斯赛道比赛的赛车,并且发明了后视镜——虽然我说不好这在商业经济上算不算多大的优势。但早年参加印第安纳波利斯500英里大奖赛的赛车里通常坐两个人:一个人负责往后看,观察其他赛车的动向,另一个人负责开车。
P09857:25
And our guy got sick and so they invented a rearview mirror. So if you wanna look at the kind of you know, what's going on in the laboratories of Berkshire Hathaway and we we've got people working on things like the rearview mirror. Hey, Warren. Yep.
结果我们那个负责往后看的人病了,于是他们就发明了后视镜。所以如果你想知道伯克希尔·哈撒韦的实验室里都在搞些什么名堂,我们有人正研究像后视镜这样的东西呢。嘿,沃伦。嗯。
P09957:43
Greg AbelVice Chairman of Non-Insurance Operations
I'm happy a friend did call. So that's that's still works Peter Eastwood who runs one of our Berkshire subsidiaries and does a great job of running it track down that Portello's is owned by a private equity firm called Berkshire Partners. So that was the basis of the question, but it's not associated with, with Berkshire. So we got we got to the bottom of that one. Yeah.
很高兴有位朋友真打来电话了,看来这招还挺管用。负责管理我们伯克希尔旗下一家子公司、而且干得非常出色的彼得·伊斯特伍德(Peter Eastwood)查到了:Portillo's是由一家名为“伯克希尔合伙人”(Berkshire Partners)的私募股权公司持有的。这就是刚才那个问题的由来,但它跟我们伯克希尔毫无关系。我们总算把这件事查了个水落石出。是的。
P10058:14
Thank you, Peter.
谢谢你,彼得。
P10158:22
Warren BuffettChairman and CEO
That's just a sample the way we operate around. Okay. Becky.
这就是我们平时做事方式的一个缩影。好的,贝基。
P10258:34
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Alright. This question comes from Jessica Poon who says, you've long been a strong believer in the American tailwind and the resilience of The United States, and history has proven you correct. Today, The US appears to be undergoing significant and potentially revolutionary changes. Some investors are now questioning the concept of American exceptionalism. In your view, are investors being overly pessimistic about The US economy, or is the country indeed entering a period of fundamental change that requires a reassessment from a new perspective?
好的。这个问题来自杰西卡·潘(Jessica Poon),她问道:您长期以来一直坚信“美国顺风”(American tailwind)以及美国的韧性,历史也证明您是对的。如今,美国似乎正在经历重大甚至可能是革命性的变化。一些投资者现在开始质疑“美国例外论”这一概念。在您看来,投资者是对美国经济过于悲观了,还是这个国家确实正在进入一个根本性的变革时期,需要从新的视角重新加以评估?
P10359:12
Well, I
嗯,我
P10459:12
Warren BuffettChairman and CEO
would say that Jessica, who I believe is that sounds as if she is the step granddaughter of one of our managers that I I mentioned in the annual report. It may not be the same one. But in any event, America's been America's been insignificant and revolutionary changing, really ever since it was developed. I mentioned that, you know, we started out as an agricultural society. We started out as a society with with high promises and we didn't deliver on it very well.
我想说,这位杰西卡听起来像是我曾在年报里提到过的一位经理人的继孙女,当然也可能不是同一个人。但不管怎样,美国自建国以来,其实就一直在经历重大的、革命性的变化。我曾提到过,我们最初是一个农业社会。我们起步时许下了崇高的承诺,但起初兑现得并不算好。
P10559:48
We said all men were created equal and then we wrote a constitution and said blacks get three counted as three fifths and in article two, you'll find male pronouns used 20 times and no female pronouns used. So, you know, it took till February I mean, yeah, February and or 1920, I should say, till the nineteenth till the nineteenth amendment was passed saying, oh, yeah, we promised the women this back in 1776 and now we'll do something about it. And then we didn't do something about it for a long time. So we're always in the process of change. We'll always find all kinds of things to criticize in the country.
我们宣称人人生而平等,随后却制定了一部宪法,规定黑人按五分之三人口折算,而且在宪法第二条中,男性代词被使用了20次,女性代词却一次都没用。所以,一直等到1920年,宪法第十九修正案才获得通过,等于在说:“哦,对了,我们在1776年曾向女性许下过这个承诺,现在我们要对此采取行动了。”而在那之前很长一段时间里,我们什么也没做。所以我们始终处在变革的过程之中,我们也总能在这个国家找到各种各样值得批评的地方。
P1061:00:39
But the luckiest day in my life is the day I was born. You know, I was born in The United States. And at the time, about three percent of all the births in the world were taking place in The United States. And I'd like to say that I had something to do, you know, listen. Sent messages out to my parents, for God's sakes.
但我一生中最幸运的一天就是我出生的那一天。要知道,我出生在美国。当时,全世界大约只有3%的新生儿出生在美国。我很想说这事儿有我的一份功劳——比如看在上帝的份上,我给父母发了信息,
P1071:01:04
Move to The United States before I born or anything. But I was just lucky. And I was lucky to be born male. I was lucky to be born white. I was like kinds of things.
让他们在我出生前搬到美国之类的。但我纯粹只是运气好。我很幸运生为男性,很幸运生为白人,在方方面面都很幸运。
P1081:01:14
But it's been if you don't think The United States has changed since I was born in 1930, it's been we've gone through all kinds of things. And we've gone through great recessions. We've gone through world wars. We've gone through the development of an atomic bomb that that we never dreamt of, you know, at the time I was born. So I would not get discouraged about the fact that it doesn't look like it.
但如果你觉得自我1930年出生以来美国没有什么变化,那可不对——我们经历了各种各样的风浪。我们经历过大衰退,经历过世界大战,还经历了原子弹的研制——那在我出生时是做梦都想不到的事情。所以我不会因为眼下看起来还没有
P1091:01:39
Solved the very problem that's come along. And if I were being born today, you know, I I would just keep negotiating in the womb until they they said you can be in The United States. So it we're all pretty lucky. Do you wanna give any we've got two non United States guys here just to get the other side.
解决掉沿途出现的每一个问题而感到气馁。如果我是在今天出生,我还是会在娘胎里不停地谈判,直到他们答应让我出生在美国为止。所以我们大家都非常幸运。你们想补充点什么吗?我们台上正好有两位非美国出生的人士,不妨听听另一面的看法。
P1101:02:12
Greg AbelVice Chairman of Non-Insurance Operations
Now live in The US?
现在都住在美国了吧?
P1111:02:17
Warren BuffettChairman and CEO
Okay. Station 4.
好的,第4区提问点。
P1121:02:25
DanielShareholder, Shareholder (New Jersey)
Hi, mister Buffett. My name is Daniel, and I'm from Tenafly, New Jersey. First of all, I just want to say how grateful I am for getting the opportunity to ask you a question. When it comes to your principles of investing, you often talk about how important it is to be patient. Has there ever been a situation in your investing career where breaking that principle and acting fast has benefited you?
您好,巴菲特先生。我叫丹尼尔(Daniel),来自新泽西州特纳夫莱(Tenafly)。首先,我想表达我有多么感激能有机会向您提问。谈到您的投资原则时,您经常强调保持耐心有多么重要。在您的投资生涯中,是否曾有过打破这一原则、果断迅速出击反而让您获益的情况?
P1131:02:48
Thank you.
谢谢您。
P1141:02:49
Warren BuffettChairman and CEO
Well, that's a good question. And there are times when you have to act fast. In fact, we made a great deal of money because we're willing to act faster than anybody around. Jessica Toombs is think she's the stepdaughter of of or step granddaughter of Ben Rosner, manager of ours. And in 1966, I got a call from a fellow named Paul Steiner in New York, and he said I I represent missus Annenberg.
嗯,这是个好问题。确实有些时候你必须迅速采取行动。事实上,我们之所以赚了很多钱,正是因为我们愿意比周围任何人都更快地采取行动。刚才提问的杰西卡(Jessica Poon),我想她是我们的一位经理人本·罗斯纳(Ben Rosner)的继女或继孙女。1966年,我接到纽约一位名叫保罗·斯坦纳(Paul Steiner,实为Walter Felstiner)的人打来的电话,他说他代表安嫩伯格夫人(Mrs. Annenberg)。
P1151:03:37
And there were there were actually nine Annenberg sisters, I believe, before Warwick Annenberg came along as the son. But he said, we have a business we'd like to sell you. So I called Charlie up, and I got a few details, and it sounded very interesting. And Charlie and I went back to the office of Will Faulsteiner in New York, was a marvelous guy. Never met him since, but but he was handling things for missus well, a ace Simon, but she had her name was Annaberg.
在儿子沃尔特·安嫩伯格(Walter Annenberg)出生之前,安嫩伯格家实际上有七八个(原文:九个)姐妹。但他在电话里说,我们有一家企业想卖给你。于是我给查理打了电话,了解了一些细节,听起来非常有意思。我和查理便赶往纽约沃尔特·费尔斯蒂纳(Walter Felstiner)的办公室,他是个非常出色的人。虽然自那以后我再没见过他,但他当时在为西蒙夫人(Mrs. Leo Simon,娘家姓安嫩伯格)打理事务。
P1161:04:18
And her husband had been the partner of of Ben Rosner, but he had died. And Ben got kind of tense about working with her. And so he offered us this business at a bargain price. He offered us a business for $6,000,000. It had 2,000,000 of cash.
她的丈夫曾是本·罗斯纳的合伙人,但已经去世了。本在与她共事时关系有些紧张。于是他们以极划算的价格向我们兜售这家企业。他们开价600万美元把这家企业卖给我们,而账上就有200万美元现金。
P1171:04:44
It had a $2,000,000 piece of property in the 900 block of of what's the key street in Philadelphia down there? Market Street. And was making 2,000,000 a year pre tax, and the price was 6,000,000. And Charlie and I went back to this place, and Ben Rosner was there, and he really, he just was upset about doing business with his partner's widow. She was extremely wealthy and he just didn't he wasn't enjoying it.
它在费城的主要街道——叫什么街来着?市场街(Market Street)——的900号街区还拥有一处价值200万美元的房产。而且这家企业每年税前利润高达200万美元,售价却只要600万美元。我和查理去了那里,本·罗斯纳也在场,他确实对与合伙人的遗孀共事感到非常心烦。她极其富有,而本就是觉得合作得很不愉快。
P1181:05:24
He was very nervous about selling it. And he he said to me and Charlie, he said he said, I'll run this business for you until December 31, and then I'm out of here. And I got Charlie. We went out in the hallway, and I said, if this guy quits at the end of the year, can throw away every book on psychology you've ever read. I mean, he and so that began a wonderful we bought the company and had a great relationship.
他对出售这家公司感到非常紧张。他对我和查理说:“我会帮你们把这家企业经营到12月31日,然后我就走人。”我拉着查理走到走廊上,对查理说:“如果这家伙在年底真辞职不干了,你就可以把你读过的所有心理学书籍统统扔掉了。”就这样,我们买下了这家公司,并开启了一段非常美妙的合作关系。
P1191:05:56
And did I know that morning when I got a phone call from Will Falsteiner that did his background about I've had a couple of times, and that was one of them, where people in the East felt that they had a stereotype in their mind of what people from the Midwest were like. And Ben had been married, his first marriage was to a woman from Iowa, he just figured that anybody from the Midwest was okay. And trick when you do when you get in the business with somebody, or you get in a room with somebody like that and they wanna sell you something for $6,000,000 that's got 2,000,000 of cash and a couple million of real estate and just making 2,000,000 a year. You don't don't want to be patient then. You want to be patient and waiting to get the occasional call.
当天早上我接到沃尔特·费尔斯蒂纳的电话时,我事先知道这些背景吗?我遇到过几次这样的情况,那便是其中之一:美国东部的人脑子里对中西部的人怀有一种刻板印象。而本的第一任妻子是爱荷华州人,所以他觉得只要是中西部来的人都靠得住。当你和那样的人谈生意、坐在同一个房间里,而他们想以600万美元的价格卖给你一家账上有200万美元现金、几百万美元房地产、而且每年能赚200万美元的公司时,诀窍就是:那时候你可千万别讲什么耐心。你的耐心应该用在平时等待这种偶发电话上。
P1201:07:00
My phone will ring sometime, you know, and with something that, you know, wakes me up. May be sleeping in there or something, it you just never know when it'll happen and that's what makes it what makes it fun. I mean, it it it so patience. It it's a combination of of of patience and a willingness to do something that afternoon if it comes to you. You don't wanna be you don't wanna be patient about about acting on deals that make sense.
我的电话总会在某个时候响起,带来某个能让我瞬间清醒的机会。哪怕我当时正在里面打盹什么的,你永远不知道机会什么时候会来,而这正是这行充满乐趣的原因。所以所谓耐心,其实是耐心等待与一旦机会找上门就在当天下午拍板行动的意愿两者的结合。对于合算的交易,在采取行动时你可不能慢吞吞地讲耐心。
P1211:07:40
And you don't wanna be very patient with people that are talking to you about things that will never happen. So it's it's not a it's not a constant asset. It's not a constant liability to be patient. Greg, you
而且对于那些找你高谈阔论永远不可能成真的事情的人,你也不必太有耐心。所以,保持耐心并不是一项恒定不变的资产,也不是一项恒定不变的负债。格雷格,你呢?
P1221:07:55
Greg AbelVice Chairman of Non-Insurance Operations
Well, Warren, I was gonna add, as you're being patient, I I happen to know and I think that goes for our, Ajit also and all our managers. Very patient when we're looking at opportunities. And as you touched on, we wanna act quickly. But while we're being patient, Never underestimate the amount of reading and work that's being done to be prepared To act quickly. Because we we do know be it equities but I would include a variety of of private companies that when the opportunity presents itself, we're ready to act.
好的,沃伦,我想补充一点:在保持耐心的同时——我恰好知道,而且我认为这对阿吉特以及我们所有的经理人来说也是如此——我们在寻找机会时非常耐心,正如你所提到的,一旦机会出现我们希望迅速采取行动。但在我们耐心等待的这段时间里,千万不要低估我们为了做好迅速行动的准备所做的大量阅读和案头工作。因为我们非常清楚,无论是股票投资还是各类非上市公司的收购,当机会出现时,我们已经做好了出手的准备。
P1231:08:31
And and that's a large part of, being patient, is is using it to be prepared. Yeah. And
这正是保持耐心的很大一部分内涵——利用等待的时间做好充分准备。是的。
P1241:08:40
Warren BuffettChairman and CEO
and of course, it it doesn't come in anything like an even flow. I mean, it's the most uneven sort of activity you could get into. And the main thing you have to do is you have to be willing to hang up after five seconds, and you have to be willing to say yes after five seconds. Absolutely. And you can't you can't be filled with self doubt in the business.
而且当然,机会的到来绝不是均匀分布的。我是说,这是你能从事的最不均匀的一种活动。你最需要做到的是:你得愿意在听完5秒钟后就挂断电话,也得愿意在听完5秒钟后就一口答应。绝对如此。干这一行,你不能满脑子自我怀疑。
P1251:09:11
You just forget it. It's not gonna work. It going to some other activity. But you also I mean, one of the great pleasures, it is the great pleasure actually in this business, is having people trust you. And that's that's really the why why work at ninety when you've got more money than anybody could count?
如果那样的话你干脆忘掉这行吧,行不通的,还是改行干别的去吧。但与此同时,干这一行最大的乐趣之一——实际上就是最大的乐趣——在于赢得人们的信任。这才是真正的动力所在:当你拥有的钱多到任何人都数不清时,为什么到了90多岁还要继续工作呢?
P1261:09:39
You know, if they started today and having machines that are helping them and everything else. And it's and that it means nothing in terms of of how you're going to live or how your children are gonna live or anything else. And but it it it but both Charlie and I, we just enjoyed the fact that people trusted us and they trusted us sixty years ago or seventy years ago. And and and partnerships we had, and we never sought out professional investors to join our partnerships. Among all of my partners, I never had a single institution.
就算他们从今天开始数、哪怕用上机器帮忙和各种手段也数不完。这些钱对于你将如何生活、或者你的子女将如何生活而言,已经没有任何影响。但查理和我都非常享受一点,那就是人们信任我们——而且他们在60年前或70年前就已经信任我们了。在我们当年经营合伙企业时,我们从未主动招揽过专业机构投资者加入我们的合伙企业。在我所有的合伙人当中,没有任何一家机构。
P1271:10:23
I never I never wanted an institution. I wanted people. And I I didn't want people that were sitting around having people present to them every three months and and tell them what they wanted to hear and all that sort of thing. And that's what we got and that's why we've got this group here today. It it's all worked out.
我从来不想要机构投资者,我想要的是具体的个人。而且我不想要那种每三个月就坐下来听人做汇报、听别人挑他们爱听的话讲的那类人。最终我们如愿汇聚了这样一批合伙人,这也是为什么今天会有在座各位聚在这里。一切都水到渠成。
P1281:10:45
But that it it's you don't wanna be patient when things are going your way. When when the time comes to act. But you you wanna get it done that day. Okay. Becky?
但总而言之,当形势对你有利、到了该出手的时候,你可不能慢条斯理讲耐心,你应该在当天就把事情敲定。好的,贝基?
P1291:11:06
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
This question is from Flavio Montenegro, a shareholder from Guatemala. A Couple Of Years ago in this meeting, mister Jane outlined the significant challenges GEICO faced in modernizing and integrating its IT systems. It was also mentioned that competitors were ahead in their pricing strategies because of the use of telematics. Today, GEICO's turnaround is evident through strong pricing and operational improvements. Could you provide more details on the specific actions taken under Todd's leadership and how those changes will help sustain a long term competitive advantage in the coming years?
这个问题来自危地马拉的股东弗拉维奥·蒙特内格罗(Flavio Montenegro)。几年前在这场股东大会上,贾恩先生概述了GEICO在IT系统现代化与整合方面面临的重大挑战,当时还提到竞争对手由于采用了车载远程信息处理技术(telematics)而在定价策略上领先一步。如今,通过强有力的定价和运营改善,GEICO的业绩扭转有目共睹。您能否详细介绍一下在托德(Todd Combs)领导下采取了哪些具体行动,以及这些变革将如何在未来几年帮助维持长期竞争优势?
P1301:11:43
Ajit JainVice Chairman of Insurance Operations
Yeah. Todd has done a great job for us in terms of turn turning around the operations. When he took over, there were two major issues that GEICO was behind its competitors on. Firstly, the term we Warren used it, we all have been using is matching rate to risk. And secondly, telematics.
好的。托德在扭转GEICO运营局面方面为我们做了极其出色的工作。当他接手时,GEICO在两个主要问题上落后于竞争对手:第一,用沃伦和我们大家常说的术语来讲,就是“费率与风险匹配”(matching rate to risk);第二就是车载远程信息处理技术(telematics)。
P1311:12:10
We were at the bottom of the list and so far as telematics are concerned about five, six years ago. Since then, we have made rapid strides and telematics, which used to be a source of competitive disadvantage to us, is no longer so. And I would argue that our telematics at GEICO is about as good as anyone else's today. So that's been one huge catch up. Secondly, in terms of matching rate to risk, there again, I think we have caught up with our competitors and we are as good as anyone else in in the field.
大约五六年前,就车载远程信息处理技术而言,我们排在行业垫底的位置。自那以后,我们取得了突飞猛进的进展;这项曾经给我们带来竞争劣势的技术,如今已不再是短板。我认为如今GEICO的车载远程信息处理技术已经和行业内任何一家公司一样优秀。这是我们完成的一项重大追赶。其次,在将费率与风险相匹配方面,我认为我们也已经赶上了竞争对手,达到了业内一流水平。
P1321:12:44
All this together with the cost reduction effort that GEICO and Todd gets a lot of credit for, he has basically reduced the workforce by 20,000, starting with something close to 50 odd thousand. He's brought it down to 20,000 and that translates to, I guess, at least $2,000,000,000 per year. So all this has allowed GEICO to become a much focused competitor. So much so in the last seven quarters, GEICO has shown a combined ratio that has an eight in front of it. And I never thought I'd live to see the day when anyone could have a combined ratio at so low as it is right now.
所有这一切,再加上GEICO的成本削减举措——这很大程度上要归功于托德——他从最初接近50多千人(5万多人)的员工规模起步,基本上裁减了20,000名员工,减少了20,000人,这相当于每年至少节省20亿美元。所有这些举措使GEICO成为了一家更加专注的竞争者。正因如此,在过去七个季度里,GEICO的综合成本率(combined ratio)一直保持在80%多(以8开头)。我从没想过自己有生之年能看到任何一家公司的综合成本率能降到像现在这么低的水平。
P1331:13:26
So I think GEICO has done a great job. It's 80 combined translates to the largest profit anyone is making on the underwriting side in the personal automobile business. So, you know, we've achieved a lot. Todd has achieved a lot, but I do not want to be so arrogant as to say that mission accomplished. We've achieved a lot, but I still think we need to do a lot more in technology.
所以我认为GEICO干得非常出色。80%多的综合成本率意味着它在个人汽车保险业务的承保端创造了全行业最大的利润。因此,我们已经取得了很大的成就,托德也取得了很大的成就,但我不想傲慢到宣布“大功告成”。我们虽然成绩斐然,但我认为我们在技术方面仍然需要做更多的工作。
P1341:13:57
AI, as we talked about, is gonna be a big force, and we need to play catch up there. Not catch up, but we are to be in a state of readiness. So I think GEICO is in a great shape right now. Warren, you want to add anything?
正如我们刚才谈到的,人工智能(AI)将成为一股强大的力量,我们需要在这方面迎头赶上——倒不是说落后追赶,而是我们必须处于随时待命的准备状态。总的来说,我认为GEICO目前状态极佳。沃伦,你想补充点什么吗?
P1351:14:11
Warren BuffettChairman and CEO
No. I it's it's it's a fascinating case study, but and that's what's so interesting about the whole game of business, but particularly about our businesses is that that each one is a little different, but they're all they all have challenges of certain sorts and but they also many certain numbers have opportunities. We we paid $50,000,000 for half of GEICO in 1976. What turned out to be half of GEICO? Fifty million.
没有。这是一个非常迷人的案例研究,而这正是整个商业博弈——尤其是我们旗下各项业务——如此有趣的原因:每一家企业都略有不同,它们各自都面临着某种挑战,但其中许多企业也同样蕴含着机遇。我们在1976年花了5000万美元买下了GEICO的一半股权——后来由于股票回购变成了GEICO的一半股权。只花了5000万美元。
P1361:14:49
Fifty fifty per not a %, but 50% of 2,000,000,000 that we earned in the first quarter is a billion dollars, which on a $50,000,000 investment is, you know, 20 for one and a quarter. So it it takes years to develop, but the interesting thing is the auto insurance policy, which didn't even exist a hundred years ago. I mean, you you didn't you just well, I should say a hundred and twenty years ago. But it's by far the largest item in the property casualty insurance business. It's it's it's huge.
第一季度我们赚了20亿美元,哪怕不算100%全资持有、只按当年那50%的股权算,一个季度也是10亿美元,相对于最初5000万美元的投资而言,单单一个季度的回报就是本金的20倍。这确实需要多年的时间来培育,但有趣的是,汽车保险保单在100年前——确切地说是120年前——甚至还不存在。而如今,它已经成为财产与意外伤害保险行业中遥遥领先的最大险种,规模极其庞大。
P1371:15:37
Ajit JainVice Chairman of Insurance Operations
The only thing I'd like to add is in addition to the underwriting profit, GEICO provides $39,000,000,000
我唯一想补充的是,除了承保利润之外,GEICO还提供了390亿美元(实为约290亿美元)
P1381:15:44
Subsidiary ExecutiveCEO
of float.
的浮存金。
P1391:15:44
Warren BuffettChairman and CEO
Oh, yeah. In addition. Yeah. And and that's not unimportant when you paid $50,000,000 to get the businesses given you $29,000,000,000 to work with for nothing. And on top of that, it gives you a billion dollars of of profit in the quarter.
哦,没错,这是额外的。是的。当你花5000万美元买下这家企业,而它免费给你提供290亿美元的资金去运作时,这可绝非小事。更不用说在此之上,它一个季度还能给你带来10亿美元(按半数算;全资为20亿美元)的利润。
P1401:16:01
The interesting thing about auto insurance is that we're the company was started in 1936, we're selling the same product as 1936. We're being more sophisticated about pricing it than we were then. Somebody just made the judgment, a fellow that came from USAA made the judgment that that government employees, the name GEICO stands for government employees insurance company, that government employees were better drivers than average. And I don't think he was an actuary or anything else, but he just made an observation. And so he left USAA, which is still a very successful company, and he started GEICO for a few hundred thousand dollars, and he made money the first year for my underwriting, he made money the second year.
关于汽车保险,有趣的一点在于:这家公司创立于1936年,而我们今天销售的产品与1936年时如出一辙,只是我们在定价上比当年更加精细复杂了。当年只是有人做出了一个判断——一位来自USAA(美国服务汽车协会)的人士判断政府雇员(GEICO这个名字正是“政府雇员保险公司”的缩写)比普通人开车更稳当。我想他并不是精算师或专家,他只是观察到了这一现象。于是他离开了至今依然非常成功的USAA,用几十万美元创办了GEICO,结果第一年承保就赚了钱,第二年又赚了钱。
P1411:16:55
This is not a public offering type thing, you know. He was phony accounting for ten years and all that sort of thing. He just priced it to make money, and that's exactly what's been done since 1936. The policy really, you know, your insurance, your auto insurance policy looks a lot like the one that you had then. And this huge field has sprung up around us and it's still growing.
这可不是那种靠上市圈钱、搞十年假账之类的把戏。他纯粹就是通过合理定价来赚钱,而自1936年以来公司一直就是这么做的。你的汽车保险保单看起来跟当年的保单其实非常相似。而这个庞大的行业就在我们身边蓬勃兴起,并且至今仍在不断增长。
P1421:17:23
And of course nobody likes to buy insurance but they sure like to drive. GEICO is it's a fascinating story. And about three times over the years, the company has gotten sidetracked one way or another, and and then it gets back to its basics and and it's a wonderful, wonderful business. And we showed at this annual meeting one time a a message from Romer Davidson. And Romer Davidson in in January of nineteen fifty I was the only person in the building that I'd gone down on a Saturday to visit, but turned out they didn't work on Saturdays in Washington and I pounded on the door till finally a janitor let me in.
当然,没有人喜欢买保险,但大家肯定都喜欢开车。GEICO是一个非常迷人的故事。这么多年来,这家公司大概有三次因为这样或那样的原因偏离了正轨,但随后又能回归基本面,它实在是一门非常、非常棒的生意。我们曾在一次年度股东大会上播放过一段来自洛里默·戴维森(Lorimer Davidson)的视频寄语。1951年1月的一个周六,我南下华盛顿去拜访GEICO,结果发现他们周六不上班,整栋大楼里只有洛里默·戴维森一个人;我一直用力敲门,直到最后一位门卫放我进去。
P1431:18:22
And I said to the janitor, is there anybody else I can talk to here except you? He didn't take it personally and he said there was this one guy up on the Sixth Floor and a fellow named Larimer Davidson did wonderful things for me. You you get a few breaks in life in terms of people you will meet who could just change your life dramatically. And if you if you need a handful of those, and when you get them you treasure them. And we've had them on this board at Berkshire.
我对那位门卫说:“除了你之外,这里还有别人能跟我聊聊吗?”他并没有往心里去,而是告诉我六楼还有一个人。那位名叫洛里默·戴维森的先生给了我莫大的帮助。人这一生会遇到几次贵人相助的机缘,你遇到的一些人可能会彻底改变你的人生轨迹。你一生只需要遇到寥寥几位这样的人,一旦遇上了就要倍加珍惜。而在伯克希尔的董事会上,我们就拥有过这样的人。
P1441:19:01
You know, if you take Tom Murphy and Sandy Gottesman and Walter Scott and Bill Scott. We we one thing we've done is we've held on to human assets. We've made lifelong assets out of people that are the right sort, and with incredible talent, but also just lots of fun to work with and always doing more than their share. And, you know, to get a chance to talk to a little Armour Davidson on a Saturday afternoon, you just listen carefully. And that comes in the category of turn every page, you know.
比方说汤姆·墨菲(Tom Murphy)、桑迪·戈特斯曼(Sandy Gottesman)、沃尔特·斯科特(Walter Scott)以及比尔·斯科特(Bill Scott)。我们做到的一件事,就是牢牢留住人才资产。我们把那些品行端正、才华横溢、共事起来乐趣无穷而且总是主动多承担责任的人,变成了我们终身的财富。你知道,能有机会在一个周六的下午和洛里默·戴维森交谈,你只需要全神贯注地倾听。这也属于“翻遍每一页”的那类经历。
P1451:19:45
Some of them you want to turn pretty fast, but you just get lucky in life, and you wanna take advantage of your luck. Okay. Station five.
有些书页你会想赶紧翻过去,但人生在世总会有撞大运的时候,你要懂得善用自己的好运气。好的,第5区提问点。
P1461:20:01
Benjamin Graham SandersonShareholder, Shareholder (California)
My name is Benjamin Graham Sanderson from Pasadena, California. Warren, thank you for all you've taught us over the years. Earlier, you said nobody but Steve Jobs could have created Apple, but nobody but Tim Cook could have developed it like he has. Warren, nobody but you could have created Berkshire, And I presume you view Greg as an outlier among outliers, but he seems so normal. Sorry, Greg.
我叫本杰明·格雷厄姆·桑德森(Benjamin Graham Sanderson),来自加利福尼亚州帕萨迪纳。沃伦,感谢您多年来教给我们的一切。刚才您提到,除了史蒂夫·乔布斯没有人能创造出苹果,但除了蒂姆·库克也没有人能把苹果发展到今天这样的高度。沃伦,除了您之外没有人能创造出伯克希尔;我猜您一定把格雷格视为人中龙凤、异类中的异类,但他看起来却如此平易近人。抱歉,格雷格。
P1471:20:30
Warren BuffettChairman and CEO
Yeah. That's a nice way of saying it's not normal, actually, but I appreciate it.
哈哈,这其实是在委婉地说我不正常吧,不过我还是很感谢你。
P1481:20:37
Benjamin Graham SandersonShareholder, Shareholder (California)
So I was hoping you could share what specifically about Greg makes him your preferred successor. And, Greg, we're excited to get to know you more over the next few decades. Thank you.
所以我希望您能分享一下,格雷格身上究竟有哪些具体特质使他成为您心仪的接班人?另外,格雷格,我们非常期待在未来的几十年里更深入地了解你。谢谢。
P1491:20:47
Warren BuffettChairman and CEO
Thank you. Thank you. Well, you you've hit on the most important question. And now in terms of the business, we've got a wonderful group of businesses, we've got a, we've got an ability to do things that nobody else can do, which is hard to get in the capitalistic system that's been developed as fully as as as The United States has been. I mean, being able to create something that is in a very, very, very big playing field.
谢谢你,谢谢。嗯,你问到了最核心的问题。就企业而言,我们拥有旗下一大批优秀的企业,我们具备做别人做不到的事情的能力——在像美国这样高度发达的资本主义体系中,这种能力是很难获得的。我是说,能够在一个极其广阔的舞台上建立起这样一番事业。
P1501:21:26
You we could really be very, very hard to develop anything like that. I don't think you could develop the people around it, let alone the capital position, you know, and the history and everything else. And the answer, of course, is that it it does take a long long time, and it takes getting around you a small cadre of people which then spreads out somewhat. But where you've got mutual trust, where people do more than their share. And I've been around a lot of businesses over the years.
现在要想再白手起家打造出类似这样的体系,真的会非常、非常困难。且不说资本实力、历史积淀以及其他一切,光是凝聚起周围这批人才,我就认为几乎不可能复制。答案当然在于,这确实需要极其漫长的时间,需要你在身边先聚拢起一小批骨干核心,然后再逐步向外扩展。在这个群体里,大家彼此信任,每个人都主动承担超出自己本分的责任。这么多年来,我见识过许许多多的企业。
P1511:22:12
And by nature, I'm somewhat critical of everything. Mean, I'm looking for what's wrong in things because that's part of investing is is looking, you know, what aren't you what are you missing? But we have you know, we've got people that if they're asked to put on a show like this instead of doing whatever their regular job is, they they participated. I went around the groups of people who were exhibiting yesterday for an hour and a half, And these are people who are thanking me, you know, and totally enthused about coming and doing a lot of work for which they don't get paid anything extra. I don't know anything about the arrangements the individual companies make, but they work hard and they enjoy their work.
天性使然,我对一切事物都带有几分挑剔的眼光。我是说,我总在寻找事物中存在的问题,因为投资的一部分就是去审视:有哪些地方不对劲?你遗漏了什么?但我们拥有一批这样的员工:如果请他们放下日常本职工作来筹办像今天这样的一场盛会,他们全都踊跃参与。昨天我花了1个半小时在展厅里走访参展的各个团队,这些人反过来向我道谢,满怀热情地来到这里承担大量工作,而且并没有为此拿任何额外报酬。我不清楚各家子公司内部的具体安排,但他们工作非常努力,而且乐在其中。
P1521:23:09
And, you know, you really wanna work at something you enjoy. I've always had I've had five bosses in life and I liked every one of them. And they were all interesting. I still decided that I'd rather work for myself than anybody else. But but if you if you find people that are wonderful to work with, you know, that's the place to go.
你知道,人真的应该从事自己喜欢的工作。我这辈子一共遇到过五位老板,每一位我都非常喜欢。他们都很有意思,尽管如此,我最终还是决定宁可为自己工作,也不愿替别人打工。但如果你能找到非常适合共事的优秀伙伴,那就是你应该去的地方。
P1531:23:34
And I've I've told my kids that basically, that you don't get lucky like I did when I found it. Seven or eight years of age, what really interested me, you know, it could have taken a lot longer, but you want to find the song, find the sound as there's a movie called The Glenn Miller Story and Glenn Miller went on from having a broken down band for fifteen years to turning out the first he found the sound and and created the first gold record. I don't know whether any of you know what it was, but it was the Chattanooga Choo Choo in 1941, I think it was. And he turned around from being nothing in with the band that he had till he found the sound. And I always have told my kids ever since that their their their sound isn't my sound, you know, but and you don't find it necessarily on the first job you take because you gotta eat, you know, and but if you get lucky like I did, you find it to be find it when you're very young.
我基本上一直告诉我的孩子们,你们不一定能像我这么幸运,在七八岁的时候就找到了自己真正感兴趣的事情——这本可能需要漫长得多的时间——但你要去寻找属于你的那首歌、寻找属于你的那种“声音”(sound)。有一部电影叫《格伦·米勒传》(The Glenn Miller Story),格伦·米勒带着一支落魄的乐队熬了15年,直到他终于找到了属于自己的独特声音,并创作出了历史上第一张金唱片。我不知道在座各位是否知道那是哪首曲子,我想那是1941年的《查塔努加小火车》(Chattanooga Choo Choo)。在找到那种声音之前,他和他的乐队默默无闻,而一旦找到之后便彻底迎来了转机。从那以后我一直告诉我的孩子们,属于他们的“声音”并不是我的“声音”;而且你不一定在第一份工作上就能找到它,因为你首先得糊口谋生,但如果你像我一样幸运,你在很小的时候就能找到它。
P1541:24:54
And then, you know, just keep doing it and don't worry too much about starting salaries and don't worry about be very careful who you work for because you will take on the habits of the people around you. So there's certain certain jobs you shouldn't take. And but you've got the greatest country in the world, and you've the greatest time in the world. So I would say that that well, while I'm handing this over to Greg at the you know, you can't even dream all the dreams that you could have about a place like Berkshire, but big thing you have to do though is always is to be sure you can play the next day. I mean, in terms of in terms of financial activities on a meaningful scale, you know, you you don't wanna go you don't there was a book about what was the name of that book?
一旦找到之后,就坚持做下去,不要太在意起薪的高低,但要非常谨慎地选择你为谁工作,因为你会染上周围人的习惯。所以有些工作你是绝对不该接的。不过你们身处世界上最伟大的国家,恰逢世界上最美好的时代。所以我想说,当我在年底把接力棒交到格雷格手中时,对于伯克希尔这样一个地方,未来的无限可能甚至超出你的想象;但有一件头等大事你必须始终做到,那就是确保自己明天还能留在牌桌上继续参与博弈。我的意思是,在进行大规模的金融活动时,有一本书叫什么名字来着?
P1551:26:16
You only have to get rich once. I mean, you don't don't wanna do anything that risks what's been created. So you don't if if very stupid things are happening around you, you do know and not wanna participate. If people are making more money because they're borrowing money, or they're participating in securities that are really pieces of junk, but but but they hope to find a bigger sucker later on. You just have to forget that.
你只需要富一次就够了。也就是说,你绝不要去做任何拿已经创造出的基业去冒险的事。因此,如果周围正在发生非常愚蠢的事情,你必须清楚自己绝不参与其中。如果别人因为借钱加杠杆而赚了更多的钱,或者靠参与那些实为垃圾的证券投机赚钱——只不过指望日后能找到一个更大的接盘傻瓜——你必须彻底无视那些诱惑。
P1561:26:51
That'll bite you at some point, and the basic game is so good, and you've been so lucky to be born now. I mean, if I've been born in 1700, I'd say I wanna go back in the womb. What the hell with this? I mean, it's just too hard. And but now I've come along to do something where I can just play around all day with things I enjoy doing.
那种做法早晚会反噬你。而原本的正常博弈本身就已经足够美妙了,能够生在当下这个时代你已经无比幸运。我是说,如果我出生在1700年,我肯定会说:“让我回娘胎里去吧,这叫什么鬼日子?”那时候的生活实在太苦太难了。而如今我赶上了好时代,可以整天研究把玩自己喜欢的事情。
P1571:27:19
And and it's really it's pretty wonderful life. Anything, Greg, you wanna add or subtract from that?
这确实是非常美妙的人生。格雷格,对此你有什么想要补充或删减的吗?
P1581:27:33
Greg AbelVice Chairman of Non-Insurance Operations
Nothing to subtract. But, I I would always just say it couldn't be more, as I've said in the past, more humbled than honored obviously to be in this role. But to to have actually been part of Berkshire for Warren, it's now twenty five plus years, had the opportunity to be part of Berkshire and to to work with you and Ajit and our our board, but many other people in our company. And as you touched on, when you find something like that and you find something like that, like Berkshire that's so special, it's you fall in love with it, and it's it becomes just what you wanna do every day, and it's just an incredible opportunity. So thank you.
没有任何要删减的。但正如我过去所说,能够担此重任,我深感谦卑与荣幸。沃伦,我成为伯克希尔的一员至今已有25年多了,有幸能够加入伯克希尔,与你、阿吉特、我们的董事会以及公司里的许多同仁共事。正如你刚才所提到的,当你找到像伯克希尔这样如此特别的地方时,你就会深深爱上它,它就成了你每天都渴望去做的事业,这是一个无比难得的机缘。所以,谢谢你。
P1591:28:19
Warren BuffettChairman and CEO
And the gentleman who asked the question, if if you don't find it immediately, you know, don't starve to death or anything in the meantime. But but but you will find it. And and you'll you'll find it in in the right individual. In in the sense, it's almost like finding the right person in marriage. Mean, and it probably the first some of you married may have married the person you meet met on your first date.
至于刚才提问的那位先生,如果你眼下还没立刻找到这样的事业,在找到之前也别把自己饿死。但你终归会找到它的,而且你会在对的人身上找到这种契合。从某种意义上说,这几乎就像在婚姻中寻找对的伴侣一样。也许在座有些已婚人士娶的或嫁的就是第一次约会认识的对象。
P1601:28:49
Although I guess they don't even have dates anymore. But but the but, you know, it's it's sometimes it pays to wait too. Okay, Becky.
虽然我猜现在的年轻人甚至都不流行约会了。但你知道,有时候耐心等待也是值得的。好的,贝基。
P1611:29:03
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
This is a question from Mark Bonke and Helen Friedrichsen in Rapid City, South Dakota. As the US dollar quickly loses value in relation to other foreign currencies in 2025, is Berkshire Hathaway taking steps to minimize this currency risk and its impact on quarterly and annual earnings? If so, please explain. And I'll I'll just add from Mary Chang, another shareholder. Berkshire currently borrows in Japanese yen to offset its currency risk and its Japanese stock investments.
这个问题来自南达科他州拉皮德城的马克·邦克(Mark Bonke)和海伦·弗里德里克森(Helen Friedrichsen)。随着2025年美元兑其他外币迅速贬值,伯克希尔·哈撒韦是否正在采取措施以尽量降低这种汇率风险及其对季度和年度盈利的影响?如果是,请予以说明。另外我再顺便加上另一位股东玛丽·张(Mary Chang)的提问:伯克希尔目前通过借入日元来对冲其日本股票投资的汇率风险。
P1621:29:35
In the future, will you invest in foreign currency denominated assets unhedged?
未来,你们是否会在不做汇率对冲的情况下投资以外币计价的资产?
P1631:29:40
Warren BuffettChairman and CEO
Yeah. Well, we always have, pretty much. The Japanese situation is different because we we do intend to stay so long with that position. And the funding situation is so cheap that we essentially have have attempted to some degree to match purchases against yen denominated funding. But that's not a policy of ours.
是的,其实我们差不多一直都是这么做的(不做对冲)。日本的情况之所以不同,是因为我们打算极其长期地持有这笔头寸,而且日元的融资成本非常低廉,所以我们基本上尝试在一定程度上用日元计价的融资来匹配我们的股票买入。但这并不是我们的一项固定政策。
P1641:30:12
In fact, that's the first time we've we've we've done that. And and we've owned lots of securities of of of in in foreign currency. So we do nothing in in terms of the question about its impact on quarterly and annual earnings. We don't do anything based on its impact on quarterly and annual earnings. I mean, there's never been a board meeting I can remember where I or the conversation I had with Charlie when I said where I say, if we do this, our annual earnings will be this, you know, and therefore we ought to whether it's accounting or whether anything, we just, you know, the number will turn out to be what it'll be.
事实上,这是我们第一次这么干。过去我们也持有过许多以外币计价的证券。所以针对“其对季度和年度盈利的影响”这一问题,我们什么也不会做。我们绝不会基于某件事对季度或年度账面盈利的影响而采取任何行动。在我的记忆中,无论是在董事会会议上,还是在我与查理的交谈中,我从来没有说过“如果我们这样做,我们的年度盈利就会变成多少,因此我们应该如何如何”——无论是出于会计考量还是其他任何原因,我们根本不在乎,最后算出来的数字是多少就是多少。
P1651:31:03
What counts as where we are five or ten or twenty years from now. And and if you start focusing on what number you're going to produce, you will quickly get tempted, at least based on the experience I've seen from viewing 20 companies. You will get so you'll, one way or another, play around with the numbers and sometimes seriously play around with the numbers. And I've seen people that that, you know, I trust them in all kinds of other ways, but they regard playing around with numbers as perfectly okay. And that's just not something, you know, we just don't think about that.
真正重要的是五年、十年或二十年之后我们处在什么位置。如果你开始盯着当期要交出什么样的利润数字,你很快就会受到诱惑——至少根据我观察众多(原文:20家)公司的经验来看是这样。你会以这样或那样的方式在数字上做手脚,有时甚至是严重地操纵数字。我见过一些人,在其他方方面面我都很信任他们,但他们却觉得在财务数字上玩点花样完全没问题。而这种事我们连想都不会去想。
P1661:31:49
Actually, the the n the relationship of the n, behavior of the n in the last quarter, resulted in certain gap charges and but it doesn't make it it doesn't make any difference. It'll change next, you know, next month or next year. And and obviously we wouldn't wanna be owning anything that we thought was in a currency that was really going to hell. And that's the big thing we worry about with The United States currency. I mean, it's the the tendency of a government to want to debase its currency over time is there's no system that beats that.
实际上,上个季度日元汇率的波动导致我们在美国通用会计准则(GAAP)下产生了一定的账面费用,但这根本无所谓。到了下个月或者明年,汇率又会变动。当然,如果我们认为某种货币真的要彻底崩溃了,我们显然不会想持有以该货币计价的任何资产。而这正是我们对美元最担忧的大问题。要知道,政府随着时间推移想要使其货币贬值的倾向,是没有任何制度能够彻底克服的。
P1671:32:42
You know, you can pick dictators, you can pick representatives, you can do anything. But but the people there there will be a a push toward weaker currencies. And of course, that is I mentioned very briefly in the annual report that that that fiscal policy is what scares me in The United States because it's it's made the way it is. And and all the motivations are to doing a lot of things that will cause can cause trouble with with money. But that's not limited to The United States.
你可以选择独裁者,也可以选择民选代表,无论你采用什么政体,掌权者总会有推动货币走弱的冲动。当然,我在年报中也简短提到过,美国的财政政策是我感到担忧和害怕的地方,因为现行制度的运转方式就是如此,所有的激励机制都在促使人们去做许多会给货币带来麻烦的事情。但这并不局限于美国。
P1681:33:24
It's all over the world. And some places, it gets out of control regularly as I know they know they know know They they devalue it, rates that are breathtaking and that's con that's continued. I mean, people can study economics and you can have all kinds of arrangements. But in the end, if you've got people that control the currency, you can can issue paper money and you will, or you can engage in clipping currencies like they used to centuries ago or There will always be people. And it's the nature of their job.
全世界到处都是如此。在有些地方,货币失控更是家常便饭,货币贬值的速度令人瞠目结舌,而且这种情况一直在持续。人们可以研究经济学,也可以设计出各种各样的制度安排,但归根结底,只要有人掌握着货币的控制权,能够印制纸币,他们就一定会去印;或者像几百年前那样通过削剪硬币边缘(clipping currencies)来稀释成色。总会有这样的人,因为这就是他们那份工作的本性。
P1691:34:13
I don't I don't I'm not singling them out as particularly evil or anything like that. But the natural course of government is to is to make the currency worthless over time. And and that's got important consequences. And it's very hard to build checks and balances into the system to keep that from happening. And we've had a lot of fun here in the last either the first hundred days or the last hundred days, whatever you wanna call it, the watching what happens when people try to make sure that they aren't running fiscal risks.
我并不是要把他们单独挑出来指责他们有多么邪恶。但政府的自然演进趋势就是随着时间的推移让货币变得一文不值,而这会带来严重的后果。要在制度中建立起制衡机制来防止这种情况发生,是非常困难的。在过去的100天里——无论你称之为新政府上任的头100天还是过去100天——我们饶有兴致地观察着,当人们试图确保不承担财政风险时会发生些什么。
P1701:35:01
And that game isn't over and it never will be over, you know, in finality. If you look if you look up in in search, the great inflations of post World War two, it's just the list that goes on forever and the same names keep popping up and everything. Currency is the value of currency is a scary thing. And and we don't have any great system for beating that we do in this particular Japanese position because we expect to hold it for fifty or a hundred years or more. And we will be owning something that's denominated in yen, easily predictable.
这场博弈还没有结束,而且永远不会有最终落幕的一天。如果你去搜索一下二战以来的历次大通胀,那份名单简直长得没有尽头,而且同样的国家名字会反复出现。货币的价值是一个令人敬畏甚至恐惧的问题,我们并没有什么万全之策来战胜它。我们在日本这笔特定头寸上之所以采取了借日元买日股的做法,是因为我们预计会持有50年、100年甚至更久,而我们所持有的资产是以日元计价的,其现金流非常容易预测。
P1711:35:54
And we'll just as long as the the carry on it is right and everything, we'll we'll we'll attempt to issue Japanese denominated liabilities. But that that's not because of anything we carry about in terms of quarterly or annual earnings. Greg, do you have anything to say on that?
只要这笔交易的利差成本(carry)合适、各方面条件得当,我们就会尝试发行以日元计价的负债。但这绝不是因为我们在乎季度或年度账面盈利的波动。格雷格,关于这一点你有什么想说的吗?
P1721:36:15
Greg AbelVice Chairman of Non-Insurance Operations
I was just gonna say that, relative to the question, that there's no question we were fundamentally very comfortable with investing in the five Japanese companies and recognizing we're investing in yen. The fact we could then borrow in yen was a almost just like a nice incremental opportunity. But we are very comfortable both with the Japanese companies and with the currency we would ultimately realize, I. E. In the yen.
针对这个问题我只想补充一点:毫无疑问,从基本面来看,我们对投资这五家日本公司感到非常踏实,并且充分认识到我们是在以日元进行投资。而随后我们能够以日元借款融资,几乎就像是一个锦上添花的增量机会。但无论是对这几家日本公司本身,还是对我们最终将收回的货币(即日元),我们都感到非常放心。
P1731:36:45
Warren BuffettChairman and CEO
Yeah. We we only made, as I referred to earlier, one big currency play, which was connected a little bit with when I wrote that article for Fortune. And we got along 12 other currencies as I remember only four or five of them are really big currencies. But when when I say we got long, that means we're short the dollar. And so we held that position for a couple years and we we made several billion dollars on it, which was significant to us then.
是的。正如我刚才提到的,我们历史上只做过一次大规模的外汇交易,那和我当年为《财富》(Fortune)杂志撰写的那篇文章有些关联。据我回忆,我们当时做多了12种其他货币,其中真正属于主要货币的只有四五种。当我说我们做多那些外币时,就意味着我们在做空美元。我们把那个头寸持有了好几年,从中赚了几十亿美元,这在当时对我们来说是一笔相当可观的收益。
P1741:37:16
Still is. The Charlie always felt that if if he had to pick an area outside of stocks in which to invest, And he knew a lot about bonds, he knew a lot about real estate, he knew a lot about a lot of things. But he he said the he thought he could he could he thought he could make a lot of money out of being in foreign currency. But we just we've done it once. It's not inconceivable we would do it again, but it's unlikely.
放到现在也依然可观。查理一直觉得,如果非要他在股票之外挑选一个投资领域——他其实非常懂债券,非常懂房地产,对很多领域都了如指掌——但他常说,他认为自己如果做外汇投资能赚大钱。不过我们实际上只干过那一次。未来我们再次涉足并非完全不可想象,但可能性很小。
P1751:37:57
But there could be things happen in The United States that would make us wanna own a lot of other currencies. And I suppose if we if we made some very large investment, European country or some there might be a situation where we would do a lot of financing in in their currency. But it's it's not a it it was something that just was sort of obvious to do in the Japanese situation where we had the ability to borrow yen at very, very low carrying cost. And and we felt very good about the income we'd be receiving from these securities and we and if the present condition, which it won't, I mean it never does, but prevail for decades and decades, we would probably keep doing the same sort of thing. But things change in the world too, so don't take that as a prediction.
不过,美国也有可能发生某些情况,促使我们想要持有大量其他货币。而且我想,如果我们未来在某个欧洲国家或其他地方进行某笔规模非常庞大的投资,我们也有可能会以当地货币进行大量融资。但在日本这个案例中,这么做纯粹是顺理成章、显而易见的选择:因为我们能够以极低的持有成本借入日元,同时我们对从这些日本股票中获得的股息收入感到非常满意。如果目前的市场条件能够持续几十年不变——当然这是不可能的,世事从不会一成不变——我们大概会继续沿用同样的做法。但世界总是在变的,所以千万别把这当成一项预测。
P1761:39:15
Okay. Section six.
好的,第6区提问点。
P1771:39:25
Dashboi Yoon DizgirShareholder, Shareholder (Mongolia)
Good morning, Warren and Greg, Ajit.
早上好,沃伦、格雷格、阿吉特。
P1781:39:28
Jackie HanShareholder, Shareholder (Toronto)
Thank you
非常感谢
P1791:39:29
Dashboi Yoon DizgirShareholder, Shareholder (Mongolia)
so much for hosting this event. Good to be here. My name is Dashboi Yoon Dizgir, and I'm from good great country of Mongolia. A little bit background about my country. Mongolia is an emerging market and landlocked country sandwiched between Russia and China.
你们举办这场盛会,很高兴来到这里。我叫达什博伊·云·迪兹吉尔(Dashzeveg Ulziidelger),来自伟大的蒙古国。简单介绍一下我的国家:蒙古国是一个新兴市场,也是夹在俄罗斯与中国之间的内陆国家。
P1801:39:51
But we are reaching history and minerals and have full democracy and growing economy. Last week, we hosted our second annual Mongolia investor conference in New York to attract investors like yourself. I know you meet and give advice informally to government leaders such as South Korea, China, and India. What advice would you give to government business leaders of emerging markets like Mongolia to attract institutional investors like yourself? It'd be great if you have long term plans for exposure to emerging markets as a hedge or an opportunistic investment.
但我们拥有悠久的历史和丰富的矿产资源,实行完全的民主制度,经济也在不断增长。上周,我们在纽约举办了第二届年度蒙古国投资者大会,旨在吸引像您这样的投资者。我知道您曾非正式地会见过韩国、中国和印度等国的政界与商界领袖并向他们提供建议。对于像蒙古国这样的新兴市场的政府和商界领袖,您有什么建议可以帮助他们吸引像您这样的机构投资者?如果您有将新兴市场作为对冲手段或机会型投资的长期布局计划,那就太好了。
P1811:40:41
Lastly, I welcome all of you to Mongolia, and my country folks would be very happy if you can make it to our economic forum this July.
最后,我欢迎各位访问蒙古国,如果你们能参加今年7月举行的蒙古经济论坛,我的同胞们一定会非常高兴。
P1821:40:55
Warren BuffettChairman and CEO
Oh, thank you. Yeah. I I have trouble planning a trip to Council Bluffs, is just a few miles from here, but Takes an optimist. Actually, met a fellow here at the annual meeting, oh, probably twenty years ago or more, who did a lot in Mongolia. And he's he did very well in Mongolia and actually moved there for quite a while.
哦,谢谢你。哈哈,我现在连规划一趟去几英里外的康瑟尔布拉夫斯(Council Bluffs)的行程都觉得费劲,你能这么邀请真是位乐观主义者。实际上,大概20多年前我在这场年度股东大会上遇到过一位先生,他在蒙古国做了不少投资,干得非常出色,而且实际上还搬去那里住了相当长一段时间。
P1831:41:33
I would say that if you're looking for advice to give the government over there, it's to develop a reputation for for having a solid currency over time. I mean that we we don't really wanna go into any country where we think there's a chance I mean, a significant probability of runaway inflation. It's just it's it's too hard to figure. People other people have figured out ways to make money in in hyperinflationary situations, but that's not our game, and I I I don't think I'd play it well. So, we wouldn't be that would be a factor with us.
我想说,如果你希望给那里的政府提点建议,那就是要在长期内建立起保持本国货币币值稳健的声誉。如果我们认为某个国家存在发生恶性通货膨胀的较大可能性,我们是绝对不想进入那个国家的,因为那实在太难算清账了。确实有其他人摸索出了在恶性通胀环境下赚钱的门道,但那不是我们擅长的游戏,而且我认为我也玩不好那个游戏。所以,这一条对我们而言会是一个决定性因素。
P1841:42:29
The chances are we won't find anything in Mongolia that fits our size requirements aside from that. But I but like I say, I've had I think my friend that I met here twenty years ago has done very well in in Mongolia. And if if the country develops a reputation for being business friendly and currency conscious conscious, you know, I think that that bodes very well for the the residency the residents of that country, particularly if it has some other natural assets that it can build around. I don't know that much about the minerals there or anything of the sort, but but I mean who would have been on The United States in 1790, but we didn't we didn't have to have perfection, we just had to be better than the other guys for quite a while. And we started out with nothing and we ended up with close to 25% of the world's GDP and faster growth rates and generally sounder currencies and all kinds of things.
除此之外,我们在蒙古国大概率也找不到符合我们资金体量要求的投资标的。但正如我所说,我20年前在这里认识的那位朋友在蒙古国发展得非常顺利。如果一个国家能够树立起对商业友好、注重维护货币稳定的声誉,我认为这对该国国民来说是个极好的兆头,特别是如果它还拥有其他可以依托发展的自然资源的话。我对那里的矿产资源了解不多,但回想一下,在1790年谁又会押注美国呢?我们并不需要做到十全十美,我们只需要在相当长的一段时间里比其他地方做得更好就够了。我们从一穷二白起步,最终占到了全球GDP的近25%,并且拥有更快的增长速度、总体上更稳健的货币以及方方面面的优势。
P1851:43:48
But, so, I wish you well. Okay. Becky?
总而言之,祝你们一切顺利。好的,贝基?
P1861:43:57
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
This question's from Peter Shen in New Jersey. It's for mister Buffett and mister Jane. In recent years, large private equity firms like Blackstone, Apollo, and KKR have aggressively expanded into insurance, raising permanent capital, managing float, aiming to replicate the model that Berkshire pioneered decades ago. Given that these firms are now directly competing for insurance assets, often using higher leverage and more aggressive investment strategies, How do you view their impact on Berkshire's insurance operations and underwriting discipline? Do you believe that the quiet private equity model poses risks to policyholders in the broader financial system?
这个问题来自新泽西州的彼得·沈(Peter Shen),是提给巴菲特先生和贾恩先生的。近年来,像黑石(Blackstone)、阿波罗(Apollo)和KKR这样的大型私募股权公司大举进军保险业,筹集永久资本、管理浮存金,试图复制伯克希尔几十年前开创的商业模式。鉴于这些公司如今正直接争抢保险资产,且往往采用更高的杠杆和更激进的投资策略,二位如何看待它们对伯克希尔保险业务及承保纪律的影响?你们认为这种私募股权模式是否会给保单持有人乃至更广泛的金融体系带来风险?
P1871:44:38
And has this competition made it more challenging for Berkshire to find and price insurance opportunities safely and profitably today?
这种竞争是否使伯克希尔如今在安全且有利可图地寻找和定价保险业务机会时面临更大的挑战?
P1881:44:47
Warren BuffettChairman and CEO
Rajiv. Okay.
阿吉特,请讲。
P1891:44:49
Ajit JainVice Chairman of Insurance Operations
Yeah. Part of the question is very easy. There's no question the private equity firms have come into this space, and we are no longer competitive in this space. We used to do a fair amount in this space, but in the last three, four years, I don't think we've done a single deal. Now you ought to separate this whole segment in two separate segments.
好的。这个问题有一部分非常容易回答。毫无疑问,私募股权公司已经大举进入了这个领域,而我们在这个领域已经不再具备竞争力了。过去我们在这个领域做过不少交易,但在过去三四年里,我想我们连一单交易都没做成过。不过,你应该把这个大领域拆分成两个不同的板块来看。
P1901:45:10
One is the property casualty end of the business and the life end of the business. The private equity firms that you mentioned are all very active in the life end of the business, not the property casualty end of the business. You are right in identifying the risks in these private equity firms that are taking on both in terms of leverage and in terms of credit risk. And while the economy is doing great and credit spreads are low, these the private equity firms who've taken the assets from very conservative investments. And I wouldn't say high octane, they've certainly invested these assets in situations where that where they get a lot more return on the investment.
一个是财产与意外伤害保险板块,另一个是人寿保险板块。你提到的那些私募股权公司在寿险板块都非常活跃,而不是在财险板块。你准确地指出了这些私募股权公司所承担的风险——既包括杠杆方面的风险,也包括信用风险。在当前经济表现良好、信用利差处于低位的时候,这些私募股权公司把保险资金从原本非常保守的投资标的中撤出,转而投向——我倒不会称之为高风险投机(high octane)——但它们确实把这些资产配置到了能获取高得多的投资回报的领域。
P1911:45:59
And as I said, as long as the economy is good and credit spreads are low, they will make money, they'll make a lot of money because of leverage. However, there is always a danger that at some point the regulators might get cranky and say, you're taking too much risk on behalf of your policyholders and that could end in tears. We do not like the risk reward that these situations offer And therefore, we put up the white flag and said, you know, we can't compete in this segment right now.
而且正如我所说,只要经济向好、信用利差较低,他们就会赚钱,而且由于杠杆作用,他们会赚很多钱。然而,始终存在一种风险,即在某个时刻监管机构可能会变得不满并表示:你们替保单持有人承担了太多风险,而这可能会以悲剧收场。我们不喜欢这类情况所提供的风险回报比,因此我们举起了白旗并表示,我们目前无法在这一细分领域参与竞争。
P1921:46:36
Warren BuffettChairman and CEO
Yeah. And I think there are people who wanna copy Berkshire's model. But usually they don't wanna copy it by also copying the model of the CEO having all of his money in the company forever. And I mean, they they've got a different equation. They're they're interested in and and and that's capitalism, but they have a whole different situation and then they probably have a somewhat different fiduciary feeling about what they're doing.
是的。而且我认为有些人想要复制伯克希尔的模式。但通常他们在复制时,并不想把首席执行官将自己所有的钱永远留在公司里这一模式也一并复制过去。我是说,他们的利益算盘是不同的。他们对此感兴趣——这就是资本主义,但他们所处的情况完全不同,而且他们对自己所做事情的受托责任感可能也有所不同。
P1931:47:15
And and sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn't work. And if it doesn't work, they go on to other things. And if I what we do here at Berkshire doesn't work, I spend the end of my life regretting what I've created. So it's it's it's just a whole different personal equation. And there is no property casualty company that can basically replicate Berkshire.
有时候这种做法行得通,有时候行不通。如果行不通,他们就会转向其他事情。而如果我们在伯克希尔所做的事情行不通,我将在余生中为我所创造的一切感到懊悔。所以这完全是截然不同的个人利益考量。没有任何一家财产和意外险公司能够从根本上复制伯克希尔。
P1941:47:44
That that wasn't the case at the start. I mean, at the start, we just had national indemnity a few miles from here and anybody could have duplicated what we had. But but that was before a g. The g came with us in 1986 and and at that point the other fellow should have given up. Yeah.
在一开始并非如此。我是说,在起步阶段,我们只有距离这里几英里的国民产险公司(National Indemnity),任何人都可以复制我们当时所拥有的东西。但那是在阿吉特(Ajit)到来之前。阿吉特在 1986 年加入我们,到了那个时候,其他同行就应该放弃追赶了。是的。
P1951:48:16
Station seven, please.
请接7号提问区。
P1961:48:20
MarieShareholder, Shareholder (Massachusetts)
Hi. My name is Marie. I'm from Melrose, Massachusetts. Thank you for the time today. As a young person interested in investing like myself, I would love to hear your insights, mister Buffett.
您好。我叫玛丽(Marie),来自马萨诸塞州梅尔罗斯。感谢您今天抽出时间。作为一个像我这样对投资感兴趣的年轻人,我非常想听听您的见解,巴菲特先生。
P1971:48:35
What were some pivotal lessons you learned early in your career, and what advice do you have young for young investors who are looking to develop their investment philosophy? Thank you.
您在职业生涯早期学到过哪些关键的经验教训?对于正在形成自己投资理念的年轻投资者,您有什么建议?谢谢。
P1981:48:48
Warren BuffettChairman and CEO
Well, those are good questions. I wish I I thought of them myself earlier in my life. The you know, who you associate with is just enormously important. And don't expect that you'll make every decision right on that. I mean, but you you are going to go into you're going to have your life progress in the general direction of the people that you that you work with, that you admire, that become your friends.
嗯,这些都是好问题。真希望我在人生早期自己就能想到这些问题。你知道,你和什么样的人交往是极其重要的。不要指望自己在这方面做出的每一个决定都是正确的。我是说,你的人生发展大方向,将会朝着与你共事的人、你钦佩的人以及成为你朋友的人所在的方向前进。
P1991:49:22
I mentioned a few fellows that that have died in the last couple years. Well, all of those people were people that that that that, you know, if we were working together on something one ten thousandth the size of Berkshire, I mean they'd be the kind of people you'd choose. It's just, there are people that make you wanna be better than you are. And you wanna hang out with people that are better than you are, and that you feel are better than you are because you're gonna go in the direction of the people that you you associate with. And and that's that's something you learn and of course you learn it late in life and that you you it it's hard to really appreciate how important some of those factors are until you get much older.
我刚才提到了过去几年里去世的几位老朋友。所有这些人,哪怕我们一起合作的事业规模只有伯克希尔的万分之一,他们也是你会选择共事的那种人。世界上就是有这样一些人,他们会让你想要成为比现在更好的自己。而你要和比你优秀、而且你也觉得比你优秀的人在一起,因为你会朝着与你交往的人所在的方向前进。这是你会学到的道理,当然往往要到人生后期才能深刻领悟,在年纪大得多之前,你很难真正体会到其中一些因素有多么重要。
P2001:50:19
But when you've got people around you like Tom Murphy and and like like well, like, just name him, Goddessman at Walter Scott, you're just gonna live a better life than than you do if you just go out and look at somebody just making a lot of money and decide you're gonna try and copy them or something of the sort. So I would I would I would try to I'd try to be associated with smart people too where I could learn a lot from them. And I would try to look for something that I would do if I didn't need the money. I mean, what you're really looking for in life is something where you've got a job that you'd hold if you didn't need the money. And I've had that.
但当你身边有像汤姆·墨菲(Tom Murphy),以及像桑迪·戈特斯曼(Sandy Gottesman)、沃尔特·斯科特(Walter Scott)这样的人时,你过上的生活肯定会比你仅仅看着某个赚大钱的人就决定去模仿他们要好得多。所以我会尽量与聪明人交往,从他们身上学到很多东西。而且我会努力寻找一份即使我不需要钱也会去做的工作。我是说,你在人生中真正寻找的,是一份即便你不缺钱也愿意一直干下去的工作。而我一直拥有这样的工作。
P2011:51:09
And surely I it for a very, very long time. In fact, all the fellows I named had it. And and they also, every one of those ones I named, they always did more than their share. And they sought they never sought more than their share of the credit. They just behaved as the way you'd you'd like anybody you'd you'd work with.
而且我拥有这份工作已经非常、非常久了。事实上,我刚才提到的所有那些老朋友也都拥有这样的工作。而且我提到的每一个人,他们所做的事情总是超过自己应尽的本分,却从不索取超过自己应得的那份功劳。他们的行事方式,正是你希望任何与你共事的人所具有的样子。
P2021:51:33
And when you find them, you treasure them. And and when you don't find them, you still keep doing whatever causes you to eat or enables you to eat. But but you don't you don't give up on on looking around and you will find you'll find people do wonderful things for you. I mentioned I mentioned earlier the, you know, going down to GEICO and knocking on the door when the door was locked. I mean, who knows what was behind that door like went in.
当你找到这样的人时,你要珍惜他们。而在你还没找到他们的时候,你依然要继续做那些能让你养活自己的事情。但你不要放弃四处寻找,你会发现有人会为你做出非常了不起的事情。我之前提到过,当年我去盖可保险(GEICO),在大门紧锁的时候敲响了门。我是说,进去之前谁知道那扇门后面有什么呢。
P2031:52:06
But but, you know, in ten minutes I found that I had a man that was gonna be just wonderfully helpful to me. And of course, if somebody's gonna be helpful to you, you wanna try to figure out ways to be helpful to them. So you get a compounding of of good intentions and good behavior. And unfortunately, you can get the reverse of that in life too. And and, you know, with a lot of I I was lucky in having a a good environment for living that kind of a life and other people, you know, have a whole different environmental situation.
但在十分钟之内,我就发现自己遇到了一位将对我提供巨大帮助的人。当然,如果有人要帮助你,你也要想方设法去帮助他们。这样你就能获得善意与良好行为的复利效应。不幸的是,在生活中你也可能遇到相反的恶性循环。我在拥有能够过上这种生活的良好环境方面是很幸运的,而其他人则面临着完全不同的环境处境。
P2041:52:49
They have to overcome it. But don't be don't feel guilty about your good luck if you've got if if if you know, if you've got well, if you live in The United States, you you know, you you you've you've there are 8,000,000,000 people in the world and there's 330,000,000 in The United States. You've already won the game to a great degree and then just keep making the most of it. But you you don't wanna you don't wanna associate with people or enterprises that ask you to do something that or tell you to do something that you shouldn't be doing. And that's one of the problems.
他们必须去克服那些困难。但如果你拥有好运,不要为你的好运感到内疚——如果你住在美国,你知道,世界上有 8,000,000,000 人口,而美国有 330,000,000 人口。你在很大程度上已经赢下了这场人生游戏,接下来只需继续充分利用它即可。但你不要与那些要求你或命令你做不该做的事的人或企业为伍。这是问题之一。
P2051:53:41
I mean, different professions select for different types of people. And there's it's interesting to me that in the investment business, so many people get out of it after they've made a pile of money. It it you really want something that you'll stick around for. You know, whether you need the money Greg doesn't need the money, or G doesn't need the money remotely. And they but they enjoy what they do and they're so damn good at it.
我是说,不同的行业会筛选出不同类型的人。令我感兴趣的是,在投资行业里,有那么多人在赚了一大笔钱之后就退出了。你真正想要的是一份能让你长期坚守的事业。你知道,无论你是否需要钱——格雷格(Greg)根本不需要钱,阿吉特(Ajit)也完全不需要钱。但他们热爱自己所做的事情,而且做得极其出色。
P2061:54:22
It's it's you know, it just well, I've had the advantage of seeing how that works over time. The best manager I ever knew, and there's a lot of contention for who that would be, but actually it was Tom Murphy senior that who lived almost 98, and I've never seen anybody that could get the potential out of other people more than than Murph could. I mean, if if if you wanted to if you wanted to become a better person, you want to work for for Tom Murphy. And there are all kinds of successful people that that really don't have that sort of don't bring that to the party. And I'm not saying that's the only way to succeed, but I think it's I it's the most pleasant way to succeed for sure.
我有幸在漫长的时间里见证了这一切是如何运作的。我所认识的最优秀的管理者——关于谁是最优秀的有很多争论——但实际上是老汤姆·墨菲(Tom Murphy Sr.),他活到了将近 98 岁,我从未见过任何人比墨菲更能激发他人的潜能。我是说,如果你想成为一个更好的人,你就会想为汤姆·墨菲工作。有很多成功人士并没有这种特质,也没有把这种特质带到团队中来。我并不是说这是成功的唯一途径,但我认为这无疑是最令人愉快的成功方式。
P2071:55:28
And I think that the Berkshire experience is pretty dramatic. I mean, to operate with Sandy Gottesman from 1963 until he died a couple years ago. And then Walters got thirty years and Clayton operated with him for twenty five years or so.
我认为伯克希尔的经历是相当引人注目的。我是说,从 1963 年开始与桑迪·戈特斯曼(Sandy Gottesman)合作,一直到他几年前去世。然后沃尔特·斯科特(Walter Scott)合作了三十年,克莱顿(Clayton)也与我们合作了二十五年左右。
P2081:55:59
Greg AbelVice Chairman of Non-Insurance Operations
Right. Yeah, thirty.
没错。是的,三十年。
P2091:56:00
Warren BuffettChairman and CEO
Yeah. And and, you you really can't miss. It's, You know, you'll learn all the time, but you'll you'll not only learn how to be successful at business, you'll learn how to be successful at life. And so that's that's that's my recommendation and that and and for some reason, I apparently you live longer too because it's pretty amazing. I mean, these people I'm talking about, including myself, I mean, I mean, you know, I you can I like to attribute it to this and a few other things?
是的。而且这真的不会出错。你会一直在学习,不仅学会如何在商业上取得成功,还会学会如何在人生中取得成功。所以这就是我的建议。而且不知出于什么原因,这样做显然还能让你活得更久,这相当神奇。我是说,我谈到的这些人,包括我自己,我喜欢把长寿归功于这一点以及其他几个因素。
P2101:56:53
I I I think a happy person lives longer than somebody that that that's doing some things that they don't really admire that much in life. Okay. Let's move on to I guess it's Becky next.
我认为,一个快乐的人会比那些做着自己并不真正钦佩的事情的人活得更久。好了,让我们继续,接下来应该是贝基(Becky)。
P2111:57:12
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
The first quarter ended March 31, and it did show that Berkshire's cash pile expanded from the end of the last year. But the greatest market turmoil came in April. Martin Devine, a shareholder from Scotland who is attending the meeting today, wants to know, has the recent market volatility presented Berkshire with opportunities? And Martin just wrote in an addendum in the last forty minutes or so, pointing out that you mentioned Berkshire almost invested $10,000,000,000 recently. I'm wanting to know if you could talk more about that.
第一季度截至3月 31 日结束,数据显示伯克希尔的现金储备较去年年底进一步增加。但最大的市场动荡发生在4月份。今天出席会议的苏格兰股东马丁·迪瓦恩(Martin Devine)想知道,近期的市场波动是否为伯克希尔带来了机会?此外,马丁在大约四十分钟前刚刚写了一段补充提问,指出您刚才提到伯克希尔最近差一点就投资了 10,000,000,000 美元。我想知道您能否多谈谈这件事。
P2121:57:44
Warren BuffettChairman and CEO
Well, then I can give you a good answer to the second part of which is no. But 10,000,000,000 wouldn't have done that much, you know. That's the other side another side of it. What has happened in the last thirty, forty five days, hundred days, whatever whatever you wanna pick up, whatever this this period has been, is is is really nothing. There's been three times since we acquired Berkshire that Berkshire has gone down 50% in a very short period of time, three different times.
嗯,对于第二个问题,我可以给你一个明确的回答,那就是“不能”。不过,10,000,000,000 美元其实也起不了太大作用,这是硬币的另一面。在过去三十天、四十五天、一百天——不管你选取哪段时间——所发生的事情,其实根本算不上什么。自我们收购伯克希尔以来,伯克希尔股价在很短时间内下跌 50% 的情况发生过三次,整整三次。
P2131:58:32
Nothing was fundamentally wrong with the company at any time, but but this is not a huge move. The Dow Jones averaged at 381 in September of nineteen twenty nine, it got down to 42. So that's by going from a hundred to 11. This is not this has not been a dramatic bear market or anything of the sort. I mean, it it it was you know, I'd like to point it out if I've I've had two hundred and fifty trading days a day, you know, for however many years I've been old enough to trade stocks, I've got seventeen or eighteen thousand days.
在那些时候,公司的基本面没有任何问题,但眼下这次根本算不上巨大的波动。道琼斯指数在1929年9月达到 381 点,后来跌到了 42 点。那相当于从100跌到了 11。现在这根本不是什么剧烈的熊市或类似的情况。我是说,我想指出的是,如果按一年大约二百五十个交易日来算,从我达到可以交易股票的年龄至今,我已经历了一万七千到一万八千个交易日。
P2141:59:28
There's been plenty of periods that just are dramatically different than this. I mean, the day I was born, the Dow Jones was at 02:40. And my first that was 08/30/1930. And between that and the low it went from $2.40 to 41. I mean, that's so if people think that it made a really major change.
历史上有很多时期与现在截然不同、剧烈得多。我是说,我出生的那天,道琼斯指数在240点(原文误作 02:40)。那是1930年8月30日(08/30/1930)。从那天到最低点,指数从240点(原文作 2.40)跌到了 41 点。所以如果人们认为最近这波行情算是重大变化的话,其实根本不算。
P2151:59:58
It it didn't if it if it's going up 15% instead of down 15%, people think they take that with remarkable grace. But but if it makes a difference to you whether your stocks are down 15% or not, you need to get a somewhat different investment philosophy because the world is not going to adapt to you. You're gonna have to adapt to the world and you will see a period in the next certainly in the next twenty years, you'll see a period that that that will be in what somebody in the market described one time as a hair curler compared to anything you've seen before. I mean that just it just happens periodically. The world makes big, big, big mistakes and surprises happen in dramatic ways.
如果股市是上涨 15% 而不是下跌 15%,人们就会极其坦然地接受。但如果你的股票是否下跌 15% 会对你造成影响,你就需要换一种略微不同的投资理念了,因为世界不会去适应你,你必须去适应这个世界。在未来——肯定在未来二十年内——你会看到某个时期,正如市场上曾有人形容的那样,与你以前见过的任何情况相比都令人毛骨悚然。我是说,这种事就是会周期性地发生。这个世界会犯下极大、极大、极大的错误,而意外事件会以戏剧性的方式发生。
P2162:00:51
And the more sophisticated the system gets, the more the surprises can be out of right field. That's that's just that's part of the stock market. And that's what makes it a good place to to focus your efforts if you've got the proper temperament for it and a terrible place to get involved if if you get frightened by markets that decline and and get excited when stock markets go up. I don't mean to sound particularly critical. I mean, I know people have emotions, but you gotta check them at the door when you invest.
而且体系越精密复杂,出乎意料的惊人意外就越可能从天而降。这就是股票市场的一部分。如果你具备恰当的性情,这正是使股市成为值得你集中精力去耕耘的好地方的原因;而如果你在市场下跌时感到恐惧、在市场上涨时感到兴奋,这里就是一个非常糟糕的涉足之地。我无意听起来过于苛刻。我知道人都是有情绪的,但在投资时,你必须把情绪留在门外。
P2172:01:28
Okay. Station eight, please.
好的。请接8号提问区。
P2182:01:40
Peter ChenShareholder, Shareholder (Shanghai)
Good morning, mister Maffei, mister Reverend Greg, and mister Aji. My name is Peter Chen. I'm from Shanghai, China. This is my first time attending this shareholders meeting. I would like to ask a question about the wisdom of life.
早上好,巴菲特先生、格雷格先生和阿吉特先生。我叫彼得·陈(Peter Chen),来自中国上海。这是我第一次参加股东大会。我想问一个关于人生智慧的问题。
P2192:02:00
Have you ever encountered any major setbacks or an or lower points in your life? And how did you get through and overcome them? Thank you very much.
您在人生中是否遇到过重大挫折或低谷?您是如何度过并克服它们的?非常感谢。
P2202:02:12
Warren BuffettChairman and CEO
Yeah. Well, everybody gets setbacks, and some people have particularly bad luck in that respect and others get through with fairly minors. But Charlie, you know, but he had setbacks, I had setbacks. I mean, it it it's it's part of life and and they're not fun. I don't have any great advice for you about about, you know, having the time of your life while you're having some major setback.
是的。每个人都会遇到挫折,有些人在这方面运气特别差,而另一些人遇到的挫折则相对较小。查理遇到过挫折,我也遇到过挫折。我是说,这是人生的一部分,而且挫折并不令人愉快。关于如何在遭遇重大挫折的同时还能过得无比开心,我并没有什么高明的建议可以给你。
P2212:02:45
But but it's it's, you know, it it comes with lifetime. You it you certainly have a setback when you die. And so everybody's got that setback guaranteed to them. And but some people get and I mean, it it isn't a laughing matter in a sense because, I mean people get extraordinary bad luck and other people get extraordinary good luck. Usually the people who get good luck don't really think it was so much luck as themselves, but but you're just going to have it.
但挫折是伴随人生而来的。当你去世时,你肯定会遭遇一次挫折,所以每个人都有这一次注定会遇到的挫折。从某种意义上说,这并不是一件可以一笑了之的事情,因为有些人确实遭遇了极其糟糕的厄运,而另一些人则获得了极其美妙的好运。通常,获得好运的人并不真的认为那是运气,而觉得全是靠自己,但运气就是会客观存在。
P2222:03:27
I think you're going to I think that you're less likely to have it in terms of medical problems, in terms of, you know, various things in life. I mean, you were born at a good time. I mean, if you look all the way through the history of China, when when would you rather have been born? You know, a hundred years ago, five hundred years ago, a thousand years ago, or now? You know, it it it's just hands down.
我认为在医疗健康问题以及生活中的各种事情上,你遇到厄运的可能性比过去要小。我是说,你出生在一个好时代。如果你纵观中国的全部历史,你更愿意出生在什么时候?是一百年前、五百年前、一千年前,还是现在?这根本毫无悬念。
P2232:03:54
You'd be lucky. I mean, you know, if if I came from 20 generations of shepherds, I I I think I get kinda tired of, you know, my life just looking at these sheep every day. But, you know, we can sit here and I can I can watch Nebraska not quite play the same game of football that we played twenty years ago, but but I mean everything in life has been made so much better that you've gotta figure that you do a lucky store straw by, you know, staying in the womb for a couple hundred thousand years and then just emerging at the right time? So I would I would focus on the things that have been good in your life rather than than than than the bad things that happen. Because bad things do happen but but it it it's it can often be a wonderful life.
你会觉得自己很幸运。我是说,如果我出身于连续 20 代都是牧羊人的家庭,我想每天只是看着这些羊度日,我也会对生活感到厌倦。但现在我们可以坐在这里,我可以看内布拉斯加大学橄榄球队比赛——虽然打得不像二十年前那么好了——但生活中的一切都已经变得比过去好太多了,你应该想到,自己就像在子宫里等了二十万年,然后恰好在正确的时刻降生一样,抽中了一支幸运签。所以我会把注意力集中在生活中美好的事情上,而不是那些发生的糟糕事情上。因为糟糕的事情确实会发生,但人生往往依然可以非常美好。
P2242:04:59
You could get terrible breaks in it. Mean, you know, it so far that really hasn't happened with me, but it's happened with some of my friends. But they get some bad breaks from time to time. But for ninety four years, I've been able to drink whatever I wanna drink and get on the thing. They predict all kinds of terrible things for me but it hasn't happened yet so and it's true.
你在人生中可能会遭遇可怕的厄运。就我个人而言,到目前为止还没有真正遇到过,但我的一些朋友遇到过,他们不时会遭遇一些严重的打击。但在九十四年里,我一直能够想喝什么就喝什么,做自己想做的事。人们曾对我做出各种各样可怕的预测,但到目前为止都还没有发生,这是事实。
P2252:05:37
I mean, if you look at what pro football players are making now and everything compared to what they were making thirty or forty years ago, you can say, well, isn't that wonderful? But if you look at the if you look at the lifespan of professional athletes, after a while you get used to you really can decide that you're better off if you if you really weren't weren't the first one chosen to be on the baseball team or the basketball team or anything anything else. The human body well, Charlie and I, and I think I speak for the others to some extent, we never did. We never really exercised that much or did anything. Were we were carefully preserving ourselves for look at the bright side of things to the extent that you can.
我是说,如果你看看现在的职业橄榄球运动员的收入等各方面,并与三十或四十年前相比,你可能会说,那难道不美妙吗?但如果你看看职业运动员的寿命,过一段时间你就会得出结论:如果你当年不是第一个被选进棒球队、篮球队或其他任何运动队的人,你的处境其实更好。人类的身体——查理和我,我想在某种程度上也可以代表台上其他人说——我们从来没有做过剧烈运动。我们从来没有真正做过那么多锻炼或类似的事情,我们一直是在小心翼翼地保养自己。所以尽你所能去看事物光明的一面吧。
P2262:06:37
And that and, you know, you're lucky enough to you're you're here today, you're healthy, you're you've come from a long distance and and and you're getting a chance to learn more about something that interests you and compare that with the situation a couple hundred years ago that you would have been offered. So anyway, that's enough moralizing. Okay. Becky?
而且,你足够幸运,今天能来到这里,身体健康,远道而来,并且有机会去深入了解自己感兴趣的事物——你可以把这与两百年前你能获得的处境作个比较。不管怎样,大道理就讲到这里。好的,贝基?
P2272:07:13
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
This question comes from Himanshu Bandal for a Jeep and Warren. Autonomous vehicles are already driving across roads in American cities with no driver involvement. How do Warren and Ajit think about any disruption risk from these autonomous vehicles to GEICO's auto insurance business, which is built around understanding and underwriting human drivers, wouldn't what we call auto insurance today just become product liability for autonomous vehicles and autonomous software companies?
这个问题来自希曼舒·班达尔(Himanshu Bandal),提问给阿吉特和沃伦。自动驾驶汽车已经在没有驾驶员干预的情况下行驶在美国城市的道路上了。沃伦和阿吉特如何看待这些自动驾驶汽车对盖可保险(GEICO)汽车保险业务带来的颠覆风险?盖可的业务是建立在理解和承保人类驾驶员的基础之上的,我们今天所说的汽车保险,未来难道不会直接变成自动驾驶汽车和自动驾驶软件公司的产品责任险吗?
P2282:07:48
Ajit JainVice Chairman of Insurance Operations
Well, Ajit? Yeah. There's no question that insurance for automobile is going to
好,阿吉特?是的。毫无疑问,一旦自动驾驶汽车成为现实,汽车保险将会
P2292:07:55
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
change
发生改变,
P2302:07:55
Ajit JainVice Chairman of Insurance Operations
dramatically once self driving cars become a reality. The big change that we will see is what you identified. Most of the insurance that is sold and bought revolves around operator errors and how often they happen, how severe they are and therefore what premium we ought to charge. To the extent these new self driving cars are more safe and are involved in fewer accidents, that insurance will be less required. Instead, it'll be substituted by, as you mentioned, product liability.
发生巨大的改变。我们将看到的重大变化正如你所指出的那样。目前销售和购买的大多数保险都围绕着驾驶员的操作失误、失误发生的频率、严重程度,以及因此我们应该收取多少保费。只要这些新型自动驾驶汽车更加安全、卷入的事故更少,这类针对驾驶员失误的保险需求就会减少。取而代之的,正如你所提到的,将是产品责任险。
P2312:08:37
So we at GEICO and elsewhere are certainly trying to get ready for that switch where we move from providing insurance for operator errors and be more ready to provide protection for product errors and errors and omissions in the construction of these automobiles.
因此,我们在盖可保险以及其他保险业务部门,确实正在努力为这一转变做好准备:即从为驾驶员的操作失误提供保险,转向准备好为产品缺陷以及这些汽车制造过程中的错误与疏漏提供保障。
P2322:09:00
Warren BuffettChairman and CEO
Yeah. We expect we expect change in all our businesses. And good thing we didn't. Charlie pushed me into it, but but if I'd settled for being in New England textiles, and even though it worked well for seventy years or so prior there too, you know, the world changes. And and if the game didn't change at all, it really wouldn't be very interesting.
是的。我们预计我们所有的业务都会发生变化。幸好我们没有固步自封。当年是查理推动了我,但如果我当年满足于守着新英格兰地区的纺织业——即便它在那之前的七十年左右时间里一直运转良好——你知道,世界是会变的。而且如果这场商业游戏完全一成不变,那其实也就没什么意思了。
P2332:09:30
You know, it's if every time you if you ever every time you'd been swung at a baseball, had a hole in the game, it wouldn't be interesting. If every time you hit a golf a golf ball, you had a hole in one, it wouldn't be interesting. So in the fact that there will be things you have to think about all the time as you go along and you'll make mistakes and all that. And that's really part of the fun. I mean, that that that that your brain would turn to mush if you didn't have a few problems now and then.
你知道,如果在棒球比赛中你每次挥棒都能打出本垒打,比赛就毫无趣味了;如果你每次打高尔夫球都能一杆进洞,那也毫无趣味了。正因为在前行的过程中总会有需要你时刻思考的新情况,而且你会犯错等等,这其实是乐趣的一部分。如果你不时没有几个难题需要去解决,你的大脑就会退化成一团浆糊。
P2342:10:06
So I I, you know, auto insurance will change, although it's remarkable how little it has changed. But it's only been around since, you know, for a relatively small time and who knows what we're doing to move in transportation a hundred years from now. If you go back a couple hundred years ago, who could have predicted The United States would look like what it does and people would move like they do and people would enjoy themselves like they do. I mean it's just it it it's it's a dynamic world and the biggest thing we have to worry about unfortunately is that that we've learned how to destroy the world too. And in in in in recent years.
所以,汽车保险将会发生变化,尽管迄今为止它的变化之小令人惊讶。但它出现的时间也还相对较短,谁知道一百年后我们会用什么方式来进行交通运输呢?如果回到两百年前,谁能预测到美国会变成今天这个样子,人们会像现在这样出行,会像现在这样享受生活?这是一个充满活力的动态世界,而不幸的是,我们最需要担心的头等大事,是在近几十年来我们也学会了如何毁灭这个世界。
P2352:10:55
And so we've got this wonderful world, which now we we know that there are eight countries that and probably a ninth coming on that can destroy and and and we don't have what I would consider the necessarily the perfect people leading each one of the nine or or some of the nine countries. And, you know, when Einstein came up with the equals m c squared back in nineteen o five, he he didn't dream of the fact, I mean, that that energy could really be converted or mass could be converted into energy and the way that we change the world. When I was born in 1930, they had known about the law of physics that that Einstein had come up with twenty five years earlier. Nobody, to my knowledge, had thought what can this do to change warfare in the future? And literally, it just wasn't thought.
因此,我们拥有这个美好的世界,但现在我们知道有八个国家、而且很可能有第九个国家正在拥有足以毁灭世界的能力,而领导这九个国家或其中部分国家的,在我看来未必都是最理想的人选。当爱因斯坦在1905年提出 $E=mc^2$ 时,他做梦也没想到能量真的可以与质量相互转化,并以这种方式改变世界。当我在 1930 年出生时,人们已经知道爱因斯坦在二十五年前提出的这一物理定律了。但据我所知,当时没有任何人想过:这会如何改变未来的战争?当时真的完全没有人想到这一点。
P2362:12:12
Einstein didn't think about it at at that point. And and then in 1939, Roosevelt got a letter around a month before Germany moved into Poland and got around August 1. It's the most famous letter in history from from Leo Szilard. Leo Szilard couldn't get his letter in front of Roosevelt because whoever heard of Leo Szilard, but but he got Einstein to sign it. And Roosevelt probably understood about as much about physics as I do, so he he didn't understand it, but he understood that Einstein signed it.
爱因斯坦当时也没有想到这一点。然后在 1939 年,在德国入侵波兰前大约一个月,也就是8月 1 日左右,罗斯福收到了一封信。这是历史上最著名的一封信,由利奥·西拉德(Leo Szilard)起草。利奥·西拉德无法把他的信直接呈交到罗斯福面前,因为当时有谁听说过利奥·西拉德呢?但他让爱因斯坦在信上签了名。罗斯福对物理学的了解程度大概和我差不多,所以他并不懂信中的物理原理,但他明白那是爱因斯坦签了字的信。
P2372:12:55
So he calls in General Grover, may not have been General then, and said, we should do something about this. And all we did was learn how to destroy the world, and we needed to do it. And Germany had Heisenberg, and he looked like he was he was ahead of us. And we can't put that genie back in the waddle. And it's the world does change, and we've got all these one we've got wonderful things, but but we also have, you know, we have a guy in North Korea.
于是他召见了格罗夫斯将军(General Groves,当时可能还不是将军),并表示我们应该对此采取行动。而我们所做的就是学会了如何毁灭世界,而且当时我们不得不这么做。因为德国有海森堡(Heisenberg),当时看起来他走在了我们前面。而我们再也无法把这只魔鬼塞回瓶子里了。世界确实在变化,我们拥有了所有这些美好的事物,但与此同时,在朝鲜也有那么一个人。
P2382:13:42
If you if we criticize his haircut, know, who knows what he might decide to do with. What does what does North Korea need? Need nuclear weapons for? I mean, it can that be a good thing in the world? But they're not gonna go away, so it's a it's it's a world of change, and we are enjoying incredible change that's contributed to everybody in this room living so much better than people were living a couple hundred years ago.
如果我们批评他的发型,谁知道他可能会决定干出什么事来。朝鲜需要核武器干什么呢?这对世界来说能是一件好事吗?但核武器是不会消失的。所以这是一个不断变化的世界,我们正在享受令人难以置信的变革,这些变革让在座的每一个人都过上了比两百年前好得多的生活。
P2392:14:20
But we haven't been able to to avoid we haven't changed human beings very much so far. We've we've certainly changed weapons of mass destruction and and but we haven't made much progress with the human race and and we'll see what happens with that. But in the meantime, we'll see changes in auto insurance too, and cars, and and that will be more and it'd be easier for us to deal with it than it was when we had to deal with the problems of turning out textiles in New England, and you deal with the world as it develops. And like I say, everybody here is living in the luckiest period, but but but, you know, enjoy your luck and and and you still try to figure out the answers to what's gonna happen. Yeah.
但到目前为止,我们还没有能力改变人类自身的本性。我们确实改变了大规模杀伤性武器,但在改造人类自身方面却没有取得多少进展,未来会怎样我们拭目以待。但与此同时,我们也会看到汽车保险和汽车本身发生变化,而对我们来说,应对这些变化会比当年应对新英格兰地区纺织品生产的问题要容易得多,你会随着世界的发展去相机应对。正如我所说,在座的每个人都生活在最幸运的时代,享受你的好运吧,同时继续努力去探寻未来变化的答案。是的。
P2402:15:29
Yeah. In auto insurance as we go along and we've we've done pretty well. Actually adapting to the answers. There's a few big problems in insurance, and I don't know how the insurance industry adapts to them particularly, but but that makes the game interesting. You really don't want you wouldn't wanna go out and play golf if you'd already gonna hit the ball in the hole, on every hole.
是的。在汽车保险领域,一路走来我们在适应各种变化方面做得相当不错。保险行业存在着几个大难题,我并不完全清楚整个保险行业将如何去适应它们,但正是这些难题让这场游戏变得有趣。如果你去打高尔夫球,在每一个球洞都能一杆进洞,你真的不会想出去打球了。
P2412:15:54
Ajit JainVice Chairman of Insurance Operations
I just like to add, we talked about the shift to product liability and to protection for accidents that take place because of a error in terms of how the product was designed or supplied. The only thing I want to add is in addition to this that shift, I think what we'll see is a major shift where the number of accidents that take place and need to be provided for will drop dramatically because of automatic driving. But on the other hand, the cost per repair every time there's an accident, the cost of repairing and bringing everything back to where it used to be would go up very significantly because of the amount of technology that's going into the, into the car. How those two variables interact with each other in terms of the total cost of providing the insurance, I think it's still an open issue.
我只想补充一点,我们刚才谈到了向产品责任险的转变,以及针对因产品设计或供应失误而发生的事故提供保障。我唯一想补充的是,除了这一转变之外,我认为我们还会看到另一个重大转变:由于自动驾驶,发生并需要理赔的事故数量将会大幅下降;但另一方面,每次发生事故时的单次维修成本——即修复一切并使其恢复原状的成本——由于汽车中搭载了大量高科技配置,将会非常显著地上升。这两个变量在提供保险的总成本方面如何相互作用,我认为目前仍是一个悬而未决的问题。
P2422:16:51
Warren BuffettChairman and CEO
I'll give you two interesting figures to ponder. When I walked into Geico's office in 1950, the average price of a policy was around $40 a year. It varies all over the lot depending on location and everything, but but it's pretty easy to get up to $2,000 and depending on how urban your areas are and everything you can get considerably higher. During that same time, the number of people killed in auto accidents have fallen from roughly six per hundred million miles driven So the cars become incredibly safer, and it costs 50 times as much down or thereabout to my insurance policy.
我给你们提供两个有趣的数字供思考。当我在 1950 年走进盖可保险(GEICO)办公室时,一份保单的平均价格大约是每年 40 美元。保费因地区等因素而千差万别,但现在保费很容易就能达到 2,000 美元,而且取决于你所在地区的城市化程度等因素,保费还会高得多。在同一时期内,汽车事故的死亡人数已从每行驶一亿英里约6人大幅下降。因此,汽车变得无比安全,但购买一份保险保单的费用却大概涨到了当年的 50 倍。
P2432:18:03
When people talk about the developments in car driving and all that sort of thing, It's a lot easier sometimes. I mean the Buck Rogers aspect of it, people look at it but they don't actually think of what really happens to the math of the business. The insurance, auto insurance industry has been a huge growth industry. And for that matter, homeowners insurance prices in Nebraska have doubled in the last ten years, adjusted for general inflation and convective storms, you know, have just gone on to terror and it's still unprofitable to ride a home homeowner's insurance in Nebraska after doubling the price in the last ten years. So it's very hard to predict what these big changes mean and you just got to keep thinking all the time.
当人们谈论汽车驾驶等领域的发展时,有时想得太简单了。我是说,人们看到了其中像科幻故事(Buck Rogers)一样炫酷的一面,却没有真正去思考这门生意的数学账本究竟发生了什么变化。汽车保险行业一直是一个巨大的增长行业。就此而言,内布拉斯加州的房屋保险价格在过去十年里翻了一番(经一般通胀调整后),而强对流风暴依然肆虐,在过去十年价格翻倍之后,在内布拉斯加州承保房屋保险仍然是亏损的。因此,很难预测这些重大变化究竟意味着什么,你必须时刻保持思考。
P2442:19:06
But you don't want to read some research report that says the world's coming to an end or the world's gonna be wonderful because of this or that. Because there's about 50 other developments going on at the same time that you you need to think about. That and that you needed to keep observing as you go along. You don't never reach an answer in this business. You reach a point of action that you take.
但你不要去读某些研究报告,听信上面说什么世界末日要来了,或者因为这件那件事世界就要变得无比美好了。因为在同一时间还有大约 50 个其他的发展变化正在发生,都需要你去思考,需要你在前行的过程中持续观察。在这个行业里,你永远不会得出一个终极答案,你达成的只是在某个时点采取行动的节点。
P2452:19:32
But but but we try to get into as high probability things as we think we can do and play the game in the same way. But but it will be different than you think. And and you should wake up every morning and think about that too if you're if you're in the business of of managing businesses.
但我们努力去做我们认为成功概率最高的事情,并以同样的方式参与这场游戏。但未来的实际情况一定会与你设想的有所不同。如果你从事的是管理企业的工作,你每天早上醒来也都应该思考这一点。
P2462:19:54
Greg AbelVice Chairman of Non-Insurance Operations
Hey, Warren, as we approach the break, would you like to address the operating earnings?
嘿,沃伦,随着中场休息时间临近,你想谈谈营业利润吗?
P2472:19:59
Warren BuffettChairman and CEO
Oh, yeah. First word? Yeah. Let's put up the, we released our 10 q this morning. And we always try to do it on a Saturday so nobody gets a jump on other people.
哦,好的。第一季度的业绩?好的。让我们把幻灯片放出来,今天早上我们发布了 10-Q 季报(10 q)。我们总是尽量在周六发布,这样就没有人能抢在别人前面占得先机。
P2482:20:14
And we just have three simple charts. You'll see that our insurance underwriting income was down dramatically for the first quarter. And last year was as good a year as you'll see in insurance. It's always unpredictable insurance, but everything broke our way or the insurance industry's way last year. Prices are down this year.
我们只有三张简单的图表。大家可以看到,我们第一季度的保险承保利润大幅下降。去年是你在保险业能看到的最好的一年。保险业总是难以预测的,但去年一切都朝着有利于我们或者说有利于整个保险行业的一面发展。而今年的价格有所下降。
P2492:20:46
Risks are up this year, so you don't have to be a genius to figure out what the answer is on that. But we have we do have unusual advantages in the insurance business that can't really be replicated by our competition. That doesn't mean they aren't trying to get advantages we don't have. But we'll try to replicate anything that seems better. In fact, we'll try and chop it.
今年的风险也在上升,所以不需要是个天才也能算出这会产生什么结果。但我们在保险业务中确实拥有竞争对手无法真正复制的独特优势。这并不意味着他们没有在努力获取我们所没有的优势。但任何看起来更好的做法,我们都会努力去效仿,事实上,我们还会努力超越它。
P2502:21:19
But we I wouldn't talk about our insurance business as much as I do it unless I really thought we had some really permanent advantages in a very, very large industry. We just announced within the last twenty four hours that we in Zurich and Chubbuff have arranged a joint operation to be the writer of really large sums that that very few people can do. And of course, we gotta write them at the right price in terms of liability. But but we can do that sort of thing without blinking. And anybody that wants to do it wants to get us in it.
如果不是我确实认为我们在一个规模极其庞大的行业中拥有一些真正永久性的优势,我就不会像现在这样花这么多时间谈论我们的保险业务了。就在过去二十四小时内,我们刚刚宣布与苏黎世保险(Zurich)和安达保险(Chubb)达成了一项联合承保安排,共同承保极少数公司才有能力承接的巨额保单。当然,就责任风险而言,我们必须以合适的价格来承保。但我们可以眼睛都不眨一下地做这类事情,而且任何想要开展这类业务的人都会想要拉我们入伙。
P2512:22:03
I mean it so anyway, in our investment income did not change that much because we have a float that grows a little bit, which gives us more money for investment. And then we have retained earnings, which grows. So we would expect in a year to have like 40,000,000,000 or more that that will build up investments unless we find things to do with it. So the investment income rates on treasuries are less than they were or short term bills, I should say, are are less than they were before. So you had that negative effect pulling it down, but not that much and we had more money.
不管怎样,我们的投资收益变化不大,因为我们的浮存金略有增长,为我们提供了更多可用于投资的资金;而且我们的留存收益也在增长。因此,如果我们找不到资金用武之地的话,我们预计一年内将会有大约 40,000,000,000 美元或更多的资金积累在投资账户中。国债或者确切地说是短期国库券的投资收益率低于之前的水平。所以这一负面因素拉低了收益,但拉低幅度并不大,而且我们拥有的本金变多了。
P2522:22:48
So we came up with a little more in the way of earnings. The railroad is earning a little more than than last year, but it's not earning, but it should be earning at the present time and but that that's solvable and and and is getting getting solved. And it's it's still an incredible asset for Berkshire. The energy company last year was having particular problems and those were absent this year, so those earnings are up. And then among our range of general businesses, they were pretty much a push.
因此,我们的投资收益反而还略微增加了一点。铁路业务的盈利比去年略有增加,但还没有达到目前本应达到的盈利水平,不过这个问题是可以解决的,而且正在得到解决。它依然是伯克希尔一项了不起的资产。能源公司去年遇到了一些特殊问题,而今年这些问题不复存在了,因此能源业务的盈利有所上升。至于我们旗下广泛的常规业务,整体表现基本持平。
P2532:23:27
And I think I think you did a little calculation the other day on how many were up and how many were down to to Greg.
我想格雷格前几天做了一个小统计,算了算有多少家企业盈利上升、多少家下降。
P2542:23:33
Greg AbelVice Chairman of Non-Insurance Operations
Yeah. Of our 49 that we measure closely, twenty twenty one were up and 28 were down. So you can tell it was really a mixed quarter when you go go across the operating the non insurance operating businesses.
是的。在我们密切追踪的 49 家企业中,有21家盈利上升,28 家盈利下降。所以你可以看出,纵观非保险运营业务,这确实是一个表现喜忧参半的季度。
P2552:23:52
Warren BuffettChairman and CEO
Yeah. The next slide. I'm getting a five minute warning here. The we'll throw the long ball now. The shows our financial condition which continues to hold a lot more in cash and treasury bills than I would like, but I but that's simply a question of what opportunities occur.
是的。请看下一张幻灯片。我收到五分钟倒计时提醒了,我们现在要加快速度“长传进攻”了。这张表展示了我们的财务状况,我们持有的现金和短期国库券依然远多于我所希望的水平,但这纯粹取决于市场上出现什么样的机会。
P2562:24:23
If you get real opportunities every five or six years, you're you know, you have to be patient. Charlie always pointed out that we make most of our money out of about eight or nine ideas over fifty years. And and we talked about it every day and we read every report and we did everything else. But but if you think you can get an idea a day from listening to your Frederick Booker or doing a lot of reading of the of the financial information published or forget it because every now and then you get extraordinary opportunities. And most of the time, you don't have much of an edge.
如果你每五六年才能遇到一次真正的机会,你就必须保持耐心。查理总是指出,我们在五十年里赚到的大部分钱,都来自大约八到九个投资点子。尽管我们每天都在交谈,阅读每一份报告,做尽一切其他研究工作。但如果你以为靠听取经纪人的建议,或者大量阅读公开发布的财务信息就能每天产生一个好点子,那还是算了吧,因为你只是偶尔才会遇到非同寻常的机会。而在大多数时候,你并没有太大的优势。
P2572:25:09
So we also have on that thing, our float which continues to build. I don't think any there's no company that has property casualty company that has our full reserve achievement.
在这张表上,还可以看到我们的浮存金继续增长。我认为没有任何一家财产和意外险公司拥有我们这样的全额准备金规模与成就。
P2582:25:25
Ajit JainVice Chairman of Insurance Operations
Yeah. Clearly, are heads and shoulders above anyone else. Yeah.
是的。很明显,我们远远领先于其他任何同行。是的。
P2592:25:29
Warren BuffettChairman and CEO
It so that is money that, as long as we're writing it in an underwriting profit, is absolutely free money. And and we would expect that over a fifty year, hundred year period that that we would be able to say the same thing. But there will be will be years when you have a very bad underwriting record and and it'll lead into the full earnings. But so far in the last twenty years, think we've only had what one underwriting loss of any.
所以,只要我们能实现承保盈利,这笔浮存金就完全是免费的资金。而且我们预计,在五十年、一百年的时间跨度里,我们依然能够这么说。当然,也会有一些年份出现非常糟糕的承保记录,从而侵蚀整体盈利。但到目前为止,在过去二十年里,我想我们只出现过一次稍具规模的承保亏损。
P2602:26:11
Ajit JainVice Chairman of Insurance Operations
Yeah. I think if you look at the entire range including life insurance, our cost of float is 2.2 negative. That means we've got the float plus somebody's given us 2.2% of that of cash too.
是的。我想如果把包括人寿保险在内的所有保险业务都算上,我们的浮存金成本是负 2.2%。这意味着我们不仅拿到了浮存金,而且别人还额外贴给我们相当于浮存金规模 2.2% 的现金。
P2612:26:27
Warren BuffettChairman and CEO
Yeah. It's like running a running a bank where people leave their money with you and and you pay a minus 2.2% and you don't have any check clearing or anything else to do. And it's included in that, so But we run our business actually with a different mindset than than any other PC company, I think probably of the world. And and I wouldn't be talking about it if I thought they could duplicate it. And then the final final page is on share repurchases, and clearly we haven't made any we have not made share repurchases so far this year.
是的。这就像经营一家银行,人们把钱存在你这里,而你支付给他们负 2.2% 的利息,而且你还不需要处理任何支票清算或其他琐事。这些都已经包含在里面了。但我们经营业务的思维方式,实际上与世界上任何其他财产和意外险公司都不同。如果我认为他们能够复制我们的模式,我就不会在这里大谈特谈了。最后一页是关于股票回购的,很明显,今年到目前为止我们还没有进行任何股票回购。
P2622:27:14
And share repurchases, if Berkshire buys Berkshire shares and repurchases, we now pay more than you will pay if you buy Berkshire shares. I don't think people generally know that but but there is a a tax that was introduced a year or so ago, where we pay one percent. And that not only hurts us, because we pay more for it than you do. It's a better deal for you than for us. But it actually hurt some of our investee companies quite substantially.
关于股票回购,如果伯克希尔买回并回购伯克希尔的股票,我们现在支付的成本比你自己去买伯克希尔股票还要高。我想大家通常并不了解这一点,但大约一年前出台了一项税收政策,规定我们回购股票要缴纳1%的税。这不仅损害了我们的利益——因为我们买股票比你买付出的代价更高,对你来说自己买比我们回购更划算——而且实际上也对我们所投资的一些公司造成了相当大的损害。
P2632:27:53
And Tim Cook has done a wonderful job. I mean, really wonderful job running running Apple, but he spent a hundred billion dollars roughly in a year repurchasing shares and there's a 1% charge attached to that now, so that's a billion dollars a year that he pays when he buys Apple stock in which we like compared to what you pay. And and it doesn't sound like much but, well a billion dollars sounds like a lot still. But there are people that want to increase that that particular rate dramatically and and and you you won't read about it or anything like that, but it does make it slightly less attractive than than it was before and we will only buy in our shares if we think that they are almost certainly underpriced as valued very conservatively. And and we get that opportunity occasionally, but the higher that charge goes that the federal government charges us for doing it, unless we won't be able to do our repurchases.
蒂姆·库克(Tim Cook)在经营苹果公司方面做得非常出色,真的是非常出色,但他一年大约花一千亿美元回购股票,而现在这笔回购要附带 1% 的税费,所以与你直接购买相比,他购买我们所钟爱的苹果股票时,一年要多付十亿美元。这听起来似乎不算多,但十亿美元依然是一大笔钱。而且还有一些人想要大幅提高这一税率——你在新闻报道里不太会读到这些,但这确实让股票回购的吸引力比以前略有下降。只有当我们认为经极其保守地估值后,我们的股票几乎肯定被低估时,我们才会买回自己的股票。我们偶尔会遇到那样的机会,但联邦政府对我们回购股票征收的这项税费越高,我们进行股票回购的可能性就越小。
P2642:29:14
So on that happy note, we will rejoin at 01:00 and we will I'm sorry. Correct that correct that to 11:00 and then we will Yeah. 11:00. And then we'll continue to 01:00. And then in the meantime, enjoy yourself.
那么,在这个愉快的话题下,我们将在 01:00 重新回来——抱歉,更正一下,是 11:00,是的,11:00 回来,然后我们将继续进行到 01:00。在此期间,祝大家玩得愉快。
P2652:29:40
And and I think all our stores are still open, bring the cash register.
而且我想我们所有的展销商店都还开着,让收银机响个不停吧。
P2662:29:50
发言人 14
I'm sure I'll help you here.
我来帮您。
P2672:29:51
Warren BuffettChairman and CEO
Yeah. Okay. Good.
是的,好的,很好。
P2682:29:56
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
Welcome back to CNBC special coverage of the Berkshire Hathaway shareholder meeting. I'm Mike Santoli live in Omaha, Nebraska. After taking questions for two and a half hours, Warren Buffett in his sixtieth annual meeting has called a break, promising to be back on stage in just thirty minutes. We have a big halftime show for you right here. Becky Quitt is heading back over to join us.
欢迎回到CNBC对伯克希尔·哈撒韦股东大会的特别报道。我是迈克·桑托利(Mike Santoli),在内布拉斯加州奥马哈为您现场直播。在回答了两个半小时的提问之后,沃伦·巴菲特在他的第六十届年度股东大会上宣布中场休息,并承诺将在三十分钟后回到台上。我们在这里为您准备了一场精彩的中场秀。贝基·奎克(Becky Quick)正走过来与我们会合。
P2692:30:18
We'll speak live shortly with Activision founder Bobby Kotick, a longtime Berkshire attendee, and Nebraska Furniture Mart chairman Irv Blumkin. Warren started the meeting to by thanking all of the special guests one by one. He also talked, of course, about record breaking sales on the floor and all the booths from his operating companies operating companies. And, and then near the end of the session, he got around to his take on this morning's results. As he did welcome those special guests, he initiated a a special shout out to Tim Cook, obviously, CEO of Apple, who's in attendance, and said that Cook had made more money for Berkshire than Bull Shuppet himself had.
我们稍后将现场连线动视暴雪(Activision)创始人、长期参加伯克希尔大会的鲍比·科蒂克(Bobby Kotick),以及内布拉斯加家具城(Nebraska Furniture Mart)董事长欧文·布鲁姆金(Irv Blumkin)。沃伦在会议开始时逐一感谢了所有特邀嘉宾。当然,他还谈到了展厅现场以及旗下各家运营公司展位打破纪录的销售额。然后在上半场快结束时,他谈到了对今天早上发布的财报业绩的看法。在欢迎那些特邀嘉宾时,他特别向在场的苹果公司首席执行官蒂姆·库克(Tim Cook)致意,并表示库克为伯克希尔赚的钱比他巴菲特自己还要多。
P2702:30:57
And it was a a pretty friendly gesture, obviously, wanting to underscore Berkshire's appreciation of Apple. He sold out a lot of that stock not this past quarter but in the past year and, obviously, still owns about two percent of that company. He also said he loves the investments in the Japanese trading companies, those trading investments from
这显然是一个相当友好的姿态,意在强调伯克希尔对苹果公司的赞赏。他在过去一年里(并非上个季度)卖出了很大一部分苹果股票,但目前显然仍持有该公司约2%的股份。他还表示,他非常喜欢对日本商社的投资,那些投资始于
P2712:31:19
Greg AbelVice Chairman of Non-Insurance Operations
a few years
几年前。
P2722:31:19
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
ago. And he said they won't be selling any stock in those companies for a very long time, if ever. One of the strongest stances that mister Buffett took in the morning session came during his answer to a question about the tariffs and the impact of our our relationships around the world. Listen here. Around the world.
几年前。而且他说,在很长一段时间内——甚至可能永远——他们都不会卖出这些公司的任何股票。巴菲特先生在上午会议中表达的最强烈立场之一,出现在他回答关于关税及其对我们在全球范围内国际关系影响的问题时。请听以下片段。
P2732:31:39
Listen In
请听片段。
P2742:31:43
Warren BuffettChairman and CEO
The United States, I mean, we should be looking to trade with the rest of the world, and we should do what we do best and they should do what they do best. I don't think it That's that's what we did originally. I mean, we were good at producing tobacco and cotton two hundred and fifty years ago and we and we traded it. And we want a prosperous world with eight countries with nuclear nuclear weapons, including a few that are what I would call quite unstable. I do not think it's a great idea to try and design a world where a few countries say, we've won, and other countries are envious are envious.
美国应该寻求与世界其他国家进行贸易,我们应该做我们最擅长的事,他们也应该做他们最擅长的事。我认为这正是我们最初的做法。我是说,两百五十年前我们擅长生产烟草和棉花,我们就用它们来进行贸易。我们希望看到一个繁荣的世界,毕竟现在有八个国家拥有核武器,其中包括几个我称之为相当不稳定的国家。我认为,试图设计一个由少数几个国家宣称“我们赢了”、而其他国家充满嫉妒的世界,绝不是一个好主意。
P2752:32:42
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
He stayed on that topic and doubled down as he got more questions, calling the Trump administration's protective stance protective stance a, quote, big mistake big
他在收到更多提问时继续围绕这一话题深入探讨并重申立场,称特朗普政府的保护主义立场是一个“巨大的错误”。
P2762:32:51
Warren BuffettChairman and CEO
Trade should not be a weapon be a weapon. And and The United States United States States United United States. We've won. I mean, we have become an incredibly important country starting from nothing. Two hundred fifty years ago, there's nothing been anything like it.
贸易不应该成为武器。而美国——我们已经赢了。我是说,在两百五十年前从零起步,我们已经成为一个极其重要的国家,历史上从来没有过这样的先例。
P2772:33:10
And it's a big mistake in my view when you have seven and a half billion people that don't like you very well, and you got 300,000,000 that are crowing in some way about how well they've done. And I don't think it's right, and I don't think it's wise. I do think that the more support the more prosperous the rest of the world becomes, it won't be at our expense, the more prosperous we'll become and will and the the safer we'll feel and your children will feel someday.
在我看来,当世界上有七十五亿人并不那么喜欢你,而你有 300,000,000 人以某种方式自鸣得意地炫耀自己干得有多棒时,这是一个巨大的错误。我认为这不对,也不明智。我确实认为,世界其他地方变得越繁荣,这并不会以牺牲我们的利益为代价,相反我们也会变得越繁荣,而且我们以及你们的孩子有一天也会感到更加安全。
P2782:33:50
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Bye, guys. Thanks. Bye, guys.
再见,各位。谢谢。再见。
P2792:33:51
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
Buffett also addressed Berkshire's record cash hoard of nearly $350,000,000,000. He says he's sitting on the sidelines for now, but he wants to be ready when a buying opportunity presents itself.
巴菲特还谈到了伯克希尔创纪录的近 350,000,000,000 美元现金储备。他表示目前暂时按兵不动,但希望在买入良机出现时做好准备。
P2802:34:03
Warren BuffettChairman and CEO
Every now and then you find something and occasionally, very occasionally, but it'll happen again. It I don't know when. It won't it could be next week. It could be five years off, but it won't be fifty years off. He will have we will be bombarded with offerings that that we'll be glad we have the cash for.
每隔一段时间你就会发现一些机会,虽然只是偶尔,非常偶尔,但它一定会再次发生。我不知道具体是什么时候,可能是下周,也可能是五年后,但绝不会是五十年后。到那时我们会被大量的投资机会包围,我们会庆幸自己手里持有充足的现金。
P2812:34:30
And it'd be a lot more fun if it would happen tomorrow, but it's very unlikely to happen tomorrow. Very, very unlikely to happen tomorrow. But it's not unlikely to happen in five years, and then it gets the probability to get higher as you go along.
如果明天就能发生,那会更有趣得多,但明天发生的可能性极低,极其、极其不可能在明天发生。但在五年内发生并非不可能,而且随着时间推移,发生的概率会越来越高。
P2822:34:45
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
Thanks. Buffett also weighed in on the markets and the rough start to the year. He wasn't exactly concerned though about the volatility saying if you can't take the heat, you might wanna stay out of the
谢谢。巴菲特还对市场以及今年开局的动荡发表了看法。不过他并不怎么担心市场波动,并表示如果你受不了高温,最好就别进
P2832:34:57
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
kitchen. Yeah.
厨房。是的。
P2842:34:58
Warren BuffettChairman and CEO
The world makes big, big, big mistakes and surprises happen in dramatic ways. And the more sophisticated the system gets, the more the surprises can be out of right field. That's that's just that's part of the stock market. And that's what makes it a good place to to focus your efforts if you've got the proper temperament for it, and a terrible place to get involved if if you get frightened by markets that decline and and get excited when stock markets go up. I don't mean to sound particularly critical.
这个世界会犯下极大、极大、极大的错误,而意外事件会以戏剧性的方式发生。而且体系越精密复杂,出乎意料的惊人意外就越可能从天而降。这就是股票市场的一部分。如果你具备恰当的性情,这正是使股市成为值得你集中精力去耕耘的好地方的原因;而如果你在市场下跌时感到恐惧、在市场上涨时感到兴奋,这里就是一个非常糟糕的涉足之地。我无意听起来过于苛刻。
P2852:35:34
I mean, I know that that and and people have emotions.
我是说,我知道人都是有情绪的。
P2862:35:41
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
Becky is now back with us. We've heard his strong stance, Becky, on tariffs, the position, on the record cash hoard, and, of course, his downplaying of the recent market correction
贝基现在回到我们身边了。贝基,刚才我们听到了他在关税问题上的鲜明立场、关于创纪录现金储备的表态,当然还有他对近期市场回调的淡化处理。
P2872:35:51
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Yeah.
是的。
P2882:35:52
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
Which I quite enjoyed him mentioning that on the day he was born, the Dow was at 240, and then it went down to a low of 41
我很喜欢他提到的一点:在他出生的那天,道琼斯指数是 240 点,随后一路跌到了 41 点的低位。
P2892:36:00
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Right.
没错。
P2902:36:00
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
Which was in 1932 Right. At the Depression low, down 80%. That's what that's how the market greeted him. He basically says, you gotta deal with us.
那是在 1932 年,没错,正值大萧条的最低谷,跌幅高达 80%。那就是市场迎接他来到这个世界的方式。他的意思基本上是,你必须学会面对这一切。
P2912:36:08
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Yeah. He's basically if your hair's on fire right now about the volatility of the markets, relax. You're not really cut out for this business. I thought you might appreciate that. Yeah.
是的。他的意思基本上是,如果你现在因为市场的波动而急得火烧眉毛,那就放轻松点,你其实不太适合干这一行。我想你应该会很赞同这一点。是的。
P2922:36:15
For sure. Know, that's kinda your take on things like
当然。你知道,这差不多也是你对这类事情的看法——
P2932:36:18
Ajit JainVice Chairman of Insurance Operations
right.
没错。
P2942:36:18
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
I mean, act like you've been there before. Right. And in his case, he has been there before Right. Many times and many cycles.
我的意思是,表现得像你以前见识过这种场面一样。没错。而就他而言,他以前确实见识过,经历过很多次、很多个周期。
P2952:36:24
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
And again.
而且是一次又一次。
P2962:36:24
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
And, obviously, that's another theme. He always likes to sort of broaden it out and say, this country's been through a lot over the years. Yeah. It's going to get through this, and it's it's a better place now than it ever was before, and it's gonna be better in the future. That's always a sort of a welcome theme I always find to this.
显然,那是另一个主题。他总是喜欢把视野放宽,说这个国家这么多年来经历了很多风雨。是的,它终将度过这次难关,而且现在的美国比以往任何时候都更好,未来还会变得更好。我一直觉得这是一个非常受欢迎的主题。
P2972:36:39
He's he's not gonna be one who's who's gonna say, look, it's the end of, you know, American exceptionalism.
他绝不会成为那种站出来说“看,美国例外论已经终结了”的人。
P2982:36:45
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
It's kind of the opposite of what we do in the news business. Yeah. You know, it is a it is a calming influence. It is a long term view, a long term perspective on things.
这和我们在新闻行业里做的事情正好相反。是的。你知道,这是一种让人平静下来的力量,是一种长远的眼光、一种看待事物的长期视角。
P2992:36:54
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
Yeah.
是的。
P3002:36:55
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
And, really interesting to see. He did mention though I I don't know if you talked about this before I sat down, but he did mention at the very top that, oh, by the way, there was an opportunity to spend $10,000,000,000. We almost did it recently. Yes. Somebody else asked later.
看到这些真的很有意思。不过他确实提到了——我不知道在我坐下之前你们有没有聊到这个——他在最开始的时候确实顺便提了一句:有一笔可以花掉 100 亿美元的机会,我们最近差点就出手了。是的,后来也有别人问起了这件事。
P3012:37:08
One of the shareholders wanted to know what was that? Can you talk more about it? His very simple answer was no.
有一位股东想知道那到底是什么项目,能不能多透露一点?他给出了非常干脆的回答:不能。
P3022:37:13
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
It was fascinating. He also said, as he was discussing all the cash that is built up
那真的很有意思。他在讨论所积累的巨额现金时还说道——
P3032:37:18
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Yeah.
是的。
P3042:37:18
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
He said, you know, a hundred billion dollars, that's something very easy to deploy. He says those decisions are easy when they come. Right. For him, I guess they are. If you have 350,000,000,000, I guess they are.
他说,你知道,1000 亿美元其实很容易配置出去。他说当机会来临时,这类决定是很容易做出的。没错,我想对他来说确实如此;如果你手握 3500 亿美元,我想那确实很容易。
P3052:37:30
But I think he wanted to accentuate that they weren't really making an outright market call, but they do like the idea of having dry powder, being and he basically said the willingness to not be fully invested over the years has actually made them a ton of money because it meant that they had the ammunition to act when the time came.
但我认为他想强调的是,他们并不是在对市场走势做出直接的预判,而是确实喜欢手握充足“干火药”(现金储备)的状态;他基本上是在说,这么多年来愿意保持不满仓的状态,实际上帮他们赚了大钱,因为这意味着当时机真正来临时,他们手里有充足的弹药可以果断出击。
P3062:37:48
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
It also sounded to me a little like a marketing ploy. Hey, we got a lot of cash and we are willing to put it to work. Our phone lines are open.
在我听来,这也稍微带有一点营销策略的意味:“嘿,我们手里有大把现金,而且我们非常愿意把钱派上用场,我们的电话随时畅通。”
P3072:37:56
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
We're out
我们随时——
P3082:37:56
Intermission GuestShareholder
of So,
所以,
P3092:37:56
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
call on in. Look, he he he joked about it being a five second decision where we either hang up That may be an exaggeration, but he and Greg Abel were both very, very clear about the idea that we are doing the work. We are looking around. Yeah.
尽管打电话过来吧。你看,他开玩笑说那是一个 5 秒钟就能做出的决定,要么成交要么直接挂断电话。这可能有点夸张,但他和格雷格·阿贝尔都非常明确地表达了一个理念:我们一直在做功课,我们一直在四处寻找机会。是的。
P3102:38:11
We know what we would say yes to Sure. Or how to adjust a deal that we would say yes to pretty quickly.
我们很清楚自己会对什么样的交易点头同意,当然,或者知道该如何迅速调整交易方案,从而让我们能够点头同意。
P3112:38:16
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
What else jumped out to you in terms of gains or
在收益或其他方面,还有什么其他让你印象深刻的内容吗?
P3122:38:19
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
as were going through with a lot of these things. I I thought Ajit made some very interesting commentary on the insurance business. Not something we talk about regularly, but this idea of private equity really getting into the insurance business in a big way. He said that hasn't happened when you're looking at property and casualty. It has happened on the life insurance end of things, and basically, they're waving a white flag.
在我们梳理所有这些内容的过程中,我觉得阿吉特对保险业务做了一些非常有趣的评论。这不是我们平时经常聊的话题,也就是私募股权基金大举进军保险行业的现象。他说,在财产险和意外险(P&C)领域还没有发生这种情况,但在人寿保险领域已经发生了,而他们基本上是在举白旗退出。
P3132:38:41
Hey. We're not gonna compete here. You can have that business because you're more aggressive than we would.
意思是:“嘿,我们不打算在这里硬拼了,这块业务让给你们吧,因为你们比我们愿意采取的做法激进得多。”
P3142:38:45
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
They can't get the returns from returns,
他们没法从现有回报水平中获取相匹配的回报,
P3152:38:48
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
but I think that's the risk. Yeah. For the price for the price.
但我认为风险就在这里。是的,相对于那个定价而言。
P3162:38:51
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
It's mispricing the in their view. Right. That was interesting. We mentioned earlier they bought back no stock in the in the quarter. Now we know that the valuation stock is not really in his zone where he wants to be aggressive buying back the stock.
在他们看来,这是对风险的错误定价。没错,那很有意思。我们刚才提到,他们在这个季度没有回购任何股票。现在我们知道,目前伯克希尔股票的估值并不在他想要大举回购的区间内。
P3172:39:05
However, I found it interesting that he cited the buyback tax that was imposed 1% on on everything you spend buying back your own shares. That seems like a little bit of a rounding error, but I guess he implied it was material to their decision. Look. It cost us more than it cost anybody out in the public to buy
不过,我发现很有意思的是,他提到了针对回购自家股票的一切支出所征收的 1% 回购税。这听起来像是一点微不足道的舍入误差,但我想他暗示这对他们的决策是有实质影响的。你看,我们买一股伯克希尔股票的成本,比公开市场上的任何其他人去买都要高。
P3182:39:21
Benjamin Graham SandersonShareholder, Shareholder (California)
a share of Berkshire.
买一股伯克希尔股票。
P3192:39:21
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Right. And and and you have two opportunities. You you know, for a regular public public company, you can issue a dividend that you give back to them and let them figure out themselves, or you can buy back shares.
没错。而且你有两种选择。你知道,对于一家普通的上市公司来说,你可以派发股息把钱还给股东,让他们自己去决定怎么用,或者你也可以回购股票。
P3202:39:31
Warren BuffettChairman and CEO
Yeah.
是的。
P3212:39:31
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Now if buy share buybacks are tax disadvantaged from the government perspective on things, that that changes their opinion probably. Neither. No. But I I think that was a message to the operators of the companies that they own. Maybe we'd rather see a dividend than
现在,如果从政府政策的角度来看,股票回购在税收上处于不利地位,那可能就会改变他们的看法。两者都不选?不,但我认为那是传递给他们所持有的那些被投公司管理层的一个信号:也许比起被征税的回购,我们更愿意看到分红——
P3222:39:47
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
That's right.
确实如此。
P3232:39:47
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Than a tax buyback. And they just decided, you know, Tim Cook and
而不是被征税的回购。而且他们刚刚决定,你知道,蒂姆·库克和——
P3242:39:50
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
Apple billion dollars in tax and hundred billion back.
苹果交了 10 亿美元的回购税,回购了 1000 亿美元股票。
P3252:39:53
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Right. And that is a you know, we love what Tim Cook is doing. That that was really interesting. Made the comments right
没错。而且那是——你知道,“我们热爱蒂姆·库克所做的一切”。那真的很有意思,他一开场就发表了这番评论。
P3262:39:57
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
at the top. I thought that was telling.
就在一开场。我觉得这很说明问题。
P3272:39:58
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Yeah. Yeah. Very much so. They didn't look like they had any sales from the best we could tell Yes. From this most recent quarter.
是的,非常说明问题。据我们目前所能看到的信息,在最近这个季度里,他们似乎没有再出售任何——是的。
P3282:40:04
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
Of Apple.
苹果的股票。
P3292:40:05
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
They slowed down with the sales at the end of last year too.
他们在去年年底的时候也放缓了减持的步伐。
P3302:40:07
Intermission GuestShareholder
Right.
没错。
P3312:40:08
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
So maybe that's a message that, hey, Apple is here and here to stay.
所以这或许是在传递一个信号:嘿,苹果依然在这里,而且会长期留在投资组合中。
P3322:40:11
Subsidiary ExecutiveExecutive
Sure.
当然。
P3332:40:11
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
And And look. We appreciate what he's doing. But it it it
而且你看,我们很赞赏他所做的工作。但它——
P3342:40:14
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
it it back too.
仓位也降下来了。
P3352:40:15
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
I mean,
我的意思是,
P3362:40:15
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
right, it was over 40% of the equity portfolio at one point. It's down toward 2022 or something now. So it's not as if it seemed as if it was this big glaring
没错,它曾一度占到整个股票投资组合的 40% 以上,现在已经降到了 20% 到 22%(2022)左右。所以它不再像以前那样是一个如此庞大而显眼的单一持仓了。
P3372:40:23
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
There were there was an interesting question from a shareholder. Several shareholders wrote in about those Apple share
有一个来自股东的很有意思的问题,好几位股东都来信问到了关于苹果股票的那些——
P3382:40:28
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
Yeah.
是的。
P3392:40:28
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Buybacks. We haven't gotten to any of them yet. I may or may not in the second half. But one of the interesting perspectives is, was this because of tax changes you thought might happen if Kamala Harris came into into into office with Right.
回购和减持。我们还没有问到这些问题,下半场我可能会问也可能不会问。但其中一个很有意思的视角是:之前减持苹果,是不是因为你们预计如果卡玛拉·哈里斯上台执政,税率政策可能会发生变化?没错。
P3402:40:41
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
Because he alluded to that last
因为他去年曾暗示过这一点。
P3412:40:42
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
year. He did. Yeah. Yeah. So it's kind of an interesting perspective on that end
他确实暗示过。是的,所以从那个角度来看,这也是一个挺有意思的视角。
P3422:40:45
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
too.
没错。
P3432:40:45
Warren BuffettChairman and CEO
Yeah. For sure.
是的,确实如此。
P3442:40:46
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
We are continuing here at the annual meeting. This is a very quick break before we go back in for more q and a. But in the meantime, we're gonna get the chance to to speak with some of the Berkshire managers here today. Retailers are actually in the eye of the storm right now as tariffs disrupt supply chains and drive up costs. For more on how the industry is adapting, we are joined by Irv Blumkin.
我们继续在股东大会现场为您带来报道。在我们回到场内继续下半场问答环节之前,现在是一段简短的中场休息。与此同时,我们今天有机会在这里采访几位伯克希尔旗下的高管。眼下随着关税扰乱供应链并推高成本,零售商实际上正处于风暴的中心。为了深入了解该行业如何应对,我们请到了欧文·布鲁姆金(Irv Blumkin)。
P3452:41:06
He's the chairman of Nebraska Furniture Mart. And and, Irv, it is great to see you today.
他是内布拉斯加家具城(Nebraska Furniture Mart)的董事长。欧文,今天很高兴见到你。
P3462:41:11
Subsidiary ExecutiveExecutive
Great to see you too.
我也很高兴见到你。
P3472:41:12
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
So we get the special privilege right now of talking to some of the managers who are actually running the business as trying to deal with any of the potential changes that are coming and on their way. Greg may be pretty involved with what some of your companies are doing. I don't get the sense that Warren is paying a close attention. He trusts you to do those things. What are you doing to try and prepare for any potential tariffs that come down or tariffs that you are paying at this point?
我们现在非常荣幸能和几位实际执掌业务的一线管理层聊一聊,看看你们是如何应对即将到来或正在发生的各种潜在变化的。格雷格可能会比较深入地参与你们部分公司的事务,但我感觉沃伦并不会事无巨细地紧盯,他非常信任你们去处理这些事。面对未来可能落地的潜在关税,或者你们目前已经在缴纳的关税,你们正在做哪些准备?
P3482:41:36
Subsidiary ExecutiveExecutive
Well, it's very interesting. It's very disruptive. It's tough to make a plan, and we've been very patient in just waiting it out. And, you know, we've got alternative strategies to deal with it depending on what we know they're exactly gonna do. We're at a point right now where we've got July 9 is a big time for us to figure out what to ship, what not to ship.
嗯,情况非常微妙,破坏性也很大。现在很难制定计划,我们一直非常有耐心地观望等待。你知道,我们准备了不同的应对策略,具体取决于我们最终确切获知政策会怎么走。目前对我们来说,7 月 9 日是一个决定哪些货物要发运、哪些不发运的关键时间节点。
P3492:41:59
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
July 9?
7 月 9 日?
P3502:42:00
Subsidiary ExecutiveExecutive
July ninth.
7 月 9 日。
P3512:42:01
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Why that day?
为什么是这一天?
P3522:42:01
Subsidiary ExecutiveExecutive
That's the date somebody's gonna need to make a decision whether the tariffs stay in the
因为到了那一天,政府总得做出决定,看关税是维持在——
P3532:42:05
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
the ninety days in
也就是 90 天暂缓期到期——
P3542:42:06
Subsidiary ExecutiveExecutive
the Okay. The tariff stays or it goes up to 40 or 50 depending on what country we get it from.
对,看关税是维持现状,还是根据我们进口来源国的不同而上调到 40% 或 50%。
P3552:42:13
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
So what are your dual, kind of paths depending on if there's
那么根据不同情况,你们的两手准备方案分别是什么?
P3562:42:16
Subsidiary ExecutiveExecutive
So we're trying to ship as much as we can by mid May. So the the goods we have, we know exactly what we're gonna pay. And then we're just gonna take a wait and see and be patient, be able to adapt. We have a lot of resources both domestically, that we can rely on and gives us a broad base to be able to make those kinds of decisions and
我们正设法在 5 月中旬之前尽可能多地把货发出来。这样一来,对于手上这批货,我们能确切知道自己要付多少成本。之后我们就会采取观望态度,保持耐心并随机应变。我们在美国国内也有很多可以倚仗的渠道和资源,为我们提供了广泛的基础来做这类决策——
P3572:42:34
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Wait. Domestic manufacturers that you can use instead? Domestic
等等,你是说你们可以改用美国国内的制造商吗?国内——
P3582:42:38
Subsidiary ExecutiveExecutive
warehouses that brought in goods that they'll they'll have plenty of goods to cover themselves for a very short period of time because there is going to be a time where depending
是指国内的仓库,供应商已经提前把货运进来了,他们会有充足的库存来支撑很短的一段时间;因为接下来必然会有一段时间,具体取决于——
P3592:42:48
Warren BuffettChairman and CEO
on
取决于——
P3602:42:49
Subsidiary ExecutiveExecutive
what happens after the ninety days, where you may see a short supply of goods from overseas.
取决于 90 天暂缓期之后会发生什么,届时来自海外的商品可能会出现供应短缺。
P3612:42:54
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Irv, I wanna go back to a long time ago, back in 02/2007. You and I, I got to travel with you and some of the other Nebraska Furniture Mart executives and and Warren to go to China. You were doing some sourcing at that point. And, you know, where you were doing your sourcing at that point versus now, I think, is very interesting. Let's play a clip of that.
欧文,我想带你回溯到很久以前,回到 2007 年(02/2007)。当时我有幸和你、内布拉斯加家具城的其他几位高管以及沃伦一起去了中国。那时候你们正在那里进行采购。对比一下你们当年采购的地方和现在的采购布局,我觉得非常有意思。让我们先播放一段当年的视频片段。
P3622:43:16
That was a long time ago. You've been going to China for how long?
那是很久以前的事了。你们去中国采购有多长时间了?
P3632:43:21
Dashboi Yoon DizgirShareholder, Shareholder (Mongolia)
About ten years.
大约 10 年了。
P3642:43:22
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
About ten years for the business. What That's right. And how much of your stuff comes from China right now?
为了这项业务去了大约 10 年。没错。那么现在你们有多少商品是从中国采购的?
P3652:43:26
Dashboi Yoon DizgirShareholder, Shareholder (Mongolia)
Probably 75, 80 percent comes from China today.
如今大概有 75% 到 80% 来自中国。
P3662:43:30
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Where did it used to be? Ten years ago, where was most of the furniture coming from? United States? North Carolina. Mostly North Carolina.
那以前是从哪里采购的呢?10 年前,大部分家具是从哪里来的?美国国内吗?北卡罗来纳州,主要来自北卡罗来纳州。
P3672:43:36
And what had what's happened to the cost of furniture over the course of that time as you move from sourcing overseas?
随着你们把采购转移到海外,在这段时间里,家具的成本发生了怎样的变化?
P3682:43:42
Dashboi Yoon DizgirShareholder, Shareholder (Mongolia)
It's gone down dramatically and tremendous deflation in the category. Yeah.
成本大幅下降,这个品类出现了巨大的通缩(价格下降)。是的。
P3692:43:46
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Wow. What Great
哇,真是——
P3702:43:48
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
values of the customer,
给消费者带来了极大的实惠,
P3712:43:49
Warren BuffettChairman and CEO
though.
确实如此。
P3722:43:50
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Yeah. What what kind of things are we looking for this trip out?
是的。这次出来考察,我们主要在寻找哪类商品?
P3732:43:53
Dashboi Yoon DizgirShareholder, Shareholder (Mongolia)
This this trip mostly case goods and some upholstery, sofas, loveseats, along with bedroom sets, dining room sets, occasional tables.
这次行程主要是箱体家具(木制家具)和一些软体家具、沙发、双人小沙发,以及卧室套房、餐厅套房和休闲边桌。
P3742:44:02
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Alright. So that was eighteen years ago. You were doing a lot of your sourcing in China at that point. It had moved from North Carolina. What's the picture look like now in terms of your sourcing?
好的,那是 18 年前的事了。那时候你们大量的采购都在中国进行,而且是从北卡罗来纳州转移过去的。那么放到现在来看,你们的采购布局是什么样的?
P3752:44:11
Subsidiary ExecutiveExecutive
The sourcing, in our case, other than about 10%, has moved to Vietnam, Cambodia, Malaysia, Indonesia. And, you know, again, that's where, cheaper labor had been. That's where the furniture industry has migrated to. There's still some electronic stuff coming out of, China, and there's a couple categories that those countries haven't been able to produce at this point in time, but I'm sure there are a lot of people working towards those countries to figure out alternatives.
就我们而言,除了大约 10% 以外,其余采购都已经转移到了越南、柬埔寨、马来西亚和印度尼西亚。你知道,那里曾有更低廉的劳动力成本,整个家具行业也已经迁移到了那些地方。目前仍有一些电子类产品来自中国,还有几个品类是上述东南亚国家目前还无法生产的,但我相信有很多人正在那些国家努力寻找替代生产方案。
P3762:44:38
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
Yeah. That's why the stakes are so high for July 9. Right? Because there are very, very high stated tariff levels for for those exporters.
是的,这就是为什么 7 月 9 日这个节点如此利害攸关,对吧?因为针对那些出口国公布的关税税率水平非常、非常高。
P3772:44:45
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Right. Is there anything that would bring manufacturing back to The United States, North Carolina, or elsewhere?
没错。有什么因素能让家具制造业回流到美国,比如回到北卡罗来纳州或其他地方吗?
P3782:44:51
Subsidiary ExecutiveExecutive
It's interesting. I just came back from North Carolina last week, and it's a long process. I I seriously doubt there's gonna be a lot of manufacturing brought back to The US. And, you know, you just gotta figure out alternatives. We we do about 25% of our business in The US on US made domestic product or imported products in parts, and then they assemble them here.
这很有意思,我上周刚从北卡罗来纳州回来,那会是一个漫长的过程。我非常怀疑能有多少家具制造业真正回流到美国。你知道,你只能去寻找替代方案。我们目前大约有 25% 的业务来自美国本土制造的国产产品,或者是进口零部件后在美国本土进行组装的产品。
P3792:45:14
But I don't see it as a big as a big opportunity over the long term.
但从长期来看,我并不认为制造业回流会是一个很大的机会。
P3802:45:19
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Irv, wanna thank you for being with us. By the way, you haven't changed in eighteen years. It's great to still see you.
欧文,非常感谢你今天接受我们的采访。顺便说一句,这 18 年来你一点都没变,能再次见到你真好。
P3812:45:23
Subsidiary ExecutiveExecutive
Thank you very much. Great to see you all.
非常感谢。很高兴见到大家。
P3822:45:25
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Thank you. Alright. Sticking with tariffs, Warren Buffett was fairly fairly vocal this morning. We caught up with a number of his managers on the Berkshire portfolio and talked to them about the adjustments that they are trying to make right now in the face of higher tariffs.
谢谢。好了,继续聊关税话题,沃伦·巴菲特今天上午的发言相当直言不讳。我们采访了伯克希尔投资组合中的多位子公司管理层,和他们聊了聊在当前面临更高关税的情况下,他们正在尝试做出的调整。
P3832:45:41
Subsidiary ExecutiveCEO
And they're starting to use the vertical integration we have, and that's been a blessing with the the tariffs. We've had no price increase as a result Really? Because can I it helped the Canadian lumber end? Yeah. As long as it's used for housing, no tariff on that.
他们开始利用我们拥有的垂直整合优势,在关税问题上这真是帮了大忙。因此我们没有涨价。真的吗?是因为这在加拿大木材那一块起到了帮助吗?是的。只要是用于住房建设,那块就没有关税。
P3842:45:57
No tariff But also 27 supply companies of our own and great procurement teams, we've been able to offset all that.
没有关税,而且我们还有自己的27家供应公司以及出色的采购团队,我们已经能够完全抵消所有这些影响。
P3852:46:04
Subsidiary ExecutiveExecutive
You know, tariffs are a challenge for for everybody, and the biggest concern we have is the impact on the consumer.
你知道,关税对每个人来说都是一个挑战,而我们最大的担忧是对消费者的影响。
P3862:46:10
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
Yeah.
是的。
P3872:46:11
Subsidiary ExecutiveExecutive
After years of high interest rates and high inflation, consumers are pretty weary. And now it's fear. Right? It's the uncertainty that's causing them to become a little more cautious in their purchasing decisions. That will have the biggest impact on our business.
在经历了多年的高利率和高通胀之后,消费者已经相当疲惫了。而现在则是恐惧,对吧?正是这种不确定性促使他们在购买决策上变得更加谨慎一点。这将对我们的业务产生最大的影响。
P3882:46:26
Patrick NestorShareholder, Shareholder (Florida)
You know, we all are dealing with, that and managing our price margins, relationships with our customers. We're local for local in most of the markets we serve. So we, you know, innovate locally, we manufacture locally, we buy raw materials locally. So, you know, we do have some slight impact from tariffs, but generally, it's not a big issue for us.
你知道,我们都在应对这一问题,并管理我们的价格利润率以及与客户的关系。在我们所服务的大多数市场中,我们采取的都是“本地化生产服务本地市场”的模式。所以我们在当地创新、在当地制造、在当地采购原材料。因此,我们确实受到关税的一些轻微影响,但总体而言,这对我们来说并不是一个大问题。
P3892:46:44
Subsidiary ExecutiveExecutive
During Trump number one, the supply chain really started to reconfigure itself too. It was almost like a circulatory system that found a new path. And so we're going through wave two of that right now. And we're in touch basically daily right now with all the key vendors working through this together, and it's gonna it's gonna end up fine. But we're gonna have a third quarter that's gonna be
在特朗普第一任期期间,供应链也确实开始自我重构了。它几乎就像一个找到了一条新路径的血液循环系统。所以我们现在正在经历第二波这样的调整。目前我们基本上每天都与所有关键供应商保持联系,共同应对这个问题,最终结果会是好的。但我们将迎来一个
P3902:47:08
发言人 14
a little challenging as everything settles. We're preparing as if things were to slow down a little bit. But some of our areas, Joanne's business is responsible on the commercial side of the business. Yep. Data centers doing extremely well.
稍微有些挑战的第三季度,因为一切都在尘埃落定之中。我们正按照业务可能会略微放缓的情况做准备。但我们的一些领域,比如乔安(Joanne)的业务负责商用业务那一块,是的,数据中心表现得非常好。
P3912:47:19
Right? I think she'll have, hopefully, her best year. And and some very good years prior to that. So so there's a lot of pockets of that, and and I think we're in a good spot on that.
对吧?我认为她今年有望创下她最好的一年。而且在此之前也有过几个非常好的年份。所以有很多表现亮眼的局部领域,我认为我们在这一块处于有利位置。
P3922:47:30
Subsidiary ExecutiveExecutive
We're fortunate we manufacture all of our products here in The United States, and most of our inputs are sourced in The United States or North America. So we haven't seen any significant impact. From a tariff perspective, we do do a lot of business in Canada. And with this by Canadian backlash, so to speak, we are concerned about that. So we stopped manufacturing in Canada in 2015.
我们很幸运,我们所有的产品都是在美国本土制造的,而且我们的大部分原材料投入也是在美国或北美采购的。所以我们还没有看到任何重大影响。从关税的角度来看,我们确实在加拿大开展了很多业务。伴随着这种所谓的“买加拿大货”的抵制情绪,我们对此感到担忧。我们在2015年停止了在加拿大的生产制造。
P3932:47:52
But I'm happy to say we're gonna be starting manufacture in Canada again here later this month. And throughout the summer, we'll be adding more SKUs to the offering being manufactured there just to be supportive of Canadian retailers.
但我很高兴地说,本月晚些时候我们将重新开始在加拿大进行生产制造。而且在整个夏天,我们将增加在当地生产的SKU(库存量单位)品类,以支持加拿大的零售商。
P3942:48:06
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Alright. So that's what you're hearing from the Berkshire Managers who are actually on the front lines trying to deal with all of this. There's been a lot more to talk about with them this time around, and we will continue to hear pieces about how they're managing with all of this. Joining us right now to talk more about Berkshire and, what we've been seeing over the years is Activision founder Bobby Kodak. He is a long time Berkshire watcher and been coming here for more than thirty years I think Bobby, which is really hard to imagine.
好了,以上就是大家听到的来自真正在一线努力应对这一切的伯克希尔管理层的声音。这一次和他们可聊的话题多了很多,我们接下来还会继续听到更多关于他们如何应对这一切的片段。现在加入我们、进一步探讨伯克希尔以及我们多年来所见所闻的是动视(Activision)创始人鲍比·科蒂克(Bobby Kotick)。他是一位长期的伯克希尔观察者,我记得鲍比来这里已经超过三十年了,这真是难以想象。
P3952:48:33
Intermission GuestShareholder
I don't know exactly when I started. It was when I bought my first Berkshire share. I I think that was in '94, but I don't remember exactly.
我不记得我确切是什么时候开始来的了。那是在我买下第一股伯克希尔股票的时候。我想那是在94年(1994年),但我不记得确切时间了。
P3962:48:42
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Why'd you start coming? What what brings you back every year?
你当初为什么开始来?是什么让你每年都回来?
P3972:48:46
Intermission GuestShareholder
For me, you know, this is the probably the most important event that's a reminder of how important capitalism is as the foundation of democracy. And so that's, you know, it's almost like a religious experience from that perspective. Just the constant reminder of like how integral to our democracy capitalism is.
对我来说,这可能是最重要的一场盛会,它提醒着我们资本主义作为民主基石是多么重要。所以从这个角度来看,这几乎就像是一场宗教朝圣般的体验。它不断地提醒我们,资本主义对我们的民主制度而言是多么不可或缺。
P3982:49:11
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Do you do you learn something every year when you're here or is it a resetting of what you already know?
你每年来这里都会学到新东西,还是对已知事物的重新温习与归零?
P3992:49:17
Intermission GuestShareholder
Well, you know, I I think probably the greatest insight I just took away from the last couple of hours is there's this great perception of market volatility that's existed over the, you know, let's say the last three or four months. But as Warren pointed out, the S and P is down 3%. That's not much volatility. And I think it takes someone like Warren with the clarity of thought to actually remind us that there's been historically a lot more volatility in markets than what we've seen in the last five
嗯,我想我从过去几个小时里获得的最大启发可能是,在过去三四个月里,人们普遍觉得市场波动很大。但正如沃伦所指出的,标普指数只下跌了3%。这并不算多大的波动。我认为需要像沃伦这样思路清晰的人来真正提醒我们,历史上市场的波动要比我们在过去五
P4002:49:52
SashaShareholder, Shareholder (Germany)
months.
个月里看到的剧烈得多。
P4012:49:52
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
I have to admit, I'm throwing out all these shareholder questions I had as a result because it was what's going on with the treasury markets? Are they are they gonna dump foreign ownership of these things? What's gonna happen with the like, these questions that were so kind of petrified as to what was happening, like, ugh, gotta throw all of these out now.
我必须承认,正因为如此,我把手里准备的这一堆股东问题全都扔掉了,因为那些问题全都是:国债市场怎么了?外国持有者会不会抛售这些国债?接下来会发生什么?诸如此类被眼下局势吓坏了的问题,我心想,唉,现在得把这些问题全扔掉了。
P4022:50:07
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
They were relevant three weeks ago.
那些问题在三周前还是很切题的。
P4032:50:09
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Should have been. Now they're not.
本来应该是的。但现在不是了。
P4042:50:10
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
Almost all the way back. Yeah. Although at the same time, as much as you wanna take a a big picture perspective and say that we've been through these crises and trials and challenges before. It does seem there's certain extraordinary things happening right now. If you were running a business to say there's such a wide range of potential policy outcomes and what it's gonna mean for the economy, right, with with the tariffs.
市场几乎已经全部收复失地了。是的。尽管与此同时,无论你多么想从宏观大局的角度来看待,并说我们以前也经历过这些危机、考验和挑战,但眼下似乎确实有一些非同寻常的事情正在发生。如果你在经营一家企业,面对关税问题,潜在的政策结果范围如此之广,以及它将对经济意味着什么,对吧?
P4052:50:30
So I guess that's, you know, the the the messages were all in suspense for a few months and and and Warren saying, you know, he doesn't really feel like this is the way to wage that fight.
所以我想,大家接收到的信息是未来几个月都会处于悬而未决的状态,而沃伦的意思是,他确实觉得这不是打那场仗的正确方式。
P4062:50:38
Intermission GuestShareholder
I I think that the greater challenge though is if you think about where we are fiscally as a country, you know, 37 and a half trillion and growing of debt, for now more than five years, a debt to GDP ratio at a 20% or more. You know, I think one of the things that we have to start to come to terms with is you can't have successive years of a trillion and a half and $2,000,000,000,000 of deficits, a debt at 37 and a half trillion dollars with a trillion dollars a year of interest, and not address spending. And it's not just federal spending. It's gonna be municipal spending, state spending, but spending has gotten out of control. And, you know, when you think about 5% of individual taxpayers contributing 66% of taxes and twenty twenty companies contributing 25% of corporate taxes, We need to do a better job of making sure that we're not actually putting a greater tax burden on the on The US.
不过我认为更大的挑战在于,如果你想想我们国家目前的财政状况,37万亿半(37.5万亿)美元且还在不断增长的债务,如今债务占GDP的比例达到120%(语音识别记为20%)或更高已经超过五年了。我认为我们必须开始正视的一件事是,你不可能连年出现1.5万亿美元和2万亿美元的财政赤字、背负37万亿半(37.5万亿)美元的债务、每年支付1万亿美元的利息,却不去解决支出问题。而且这不仅仅是联邦政府支出,还将包括市政支出、州政府支出,政府支出已经失控了。而且当你想到5%的个人纳税人贡献了66%的税收,以及20家公司贡献了25%的企业所得税时,我们需要做得更好,确保我们实际上不会把更大的税收负担加在美国身上。
P4072:51:52
I don't know that it's sustainable, but we have to start addressing spending.
我不知道这是否可持续,但我们必须开始着手解决支出问题了。
P4082:51:55
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
But neither one of the political parties seems to have a huge appetite for for really going after spending. Doge is trying to make things more efficient, but if you don't go after some of the big ticket items, whether that's Social Security, whether it's Medicare, whether it's defense spending, if you don't go after some of the big big nuts out there, not to mention interest on what we pay on all of these things, you're not gonna be able to bring that down.
但两个政党似乎都没有太大的意愿去真正削减支出。政府效率部(DOGE)正试图提高效率,但如果你不去触碰那些大头项目——无论是社会保障(Social Security)、联邦医疗保险(Medicare),还是国防开支——如果你不去触碰那些真正棘手的大项目,更不用说我们为所有这些债务支付的利息了,你是无法把赤字降下来的。
P4092:52:17
Intermission GuestShareholder
Well, think about it. Medicaid and Medicare in the last four years are up 45 to 50%.
嗯,你想想看,联邦医疗补助(Medicaid)和联邦医疗保险(Medicare)在过去四年里增长了45%到50%。
P4102:52:22
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Right.
没错。
P4112:52:23
Intermission GuestShareholder
That's just not sustainable. And then you look at the things that nobody wants to talk about. You know, k through 12 US expenditures are something in the neighborhood of a trillion dollars, but we're now at a place where kids are graduating at 30% of their grade level expectation. Graduating in math and science and reading at 30% of grade level. I think let's say there's 50,000,000 plus people in the k through 12 system, but in almost every grade and every subject, if you're averaging 30%, and that's now two generations, you're we're not gonna have a competitive workforce.
这根本是不可持续的。然后再看看那些没人愿意谈论的事情。美国K-12(从幼儿园到12年级)基础教育的支出大约在1万亿美元左右,但我们现在的状况是,孩子们毕业时的水平只有其所在年级预期水平的30%。在数学、科学和阅读方面的毕业水平只有年级标准的30%。假设K-12基础教育体系中有超过5000万名学生,但在几乎每个年级和每个科目上,如果平均水平只有30%,而且现在已经持续了两代人,我们将不会拥有一支具备竞争力的劳动力大军。
P4122:53:09
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
What's the way to address that though? I mean, just spend don't spend a trillion dollars doesn't seem in itself the way to
但解决这个问题的办法是什么呢?我是说,仅仅是不花这1万亿美元,本身似乎并不是解决之道
P4132:53:15
Warren BuffettChairman and CEO
do it.
来做这件事。
P4142:53:16
Intermission GuestShareholder
For a trillion dollars, you should expect an excellent outcome. That that is so much money. One of the challenges though is you've seen the shift of expenditures is largely towards administrative expense and not the classroom. State of California, eighty percent of the 22,000,000,000 annual k through 12 budget goes to administrative expense. 80%.
花了1万亿美元,你理应期待一个极好的结果。那可是太多钱了。但问题之一在于,你会看到支出重心很大程度上转向了行政管理费用,而不是课堂教学。在加利福尼亚州,每年220亿美元的K-12(幼儿园至12年级)预算中,有80%用在了行政管理费用上。80%。
P4152:53:44
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Eighty %. Bobby, what are you hoping to still hear from from Warren and Greg in the second half of questions?
百分之八十。鲍比,在下半场的问答环节中,你还希望听到沃伦和格雷格谈些什么?
P4162:53:53
Intermission GuestShareholder
I I think hopefully we'll we'll hear more about what I'd like to hear. What what are the areas of opportunity that might exist and, you know, Warren's never gonna give you any specifics. I mean, you asked the question on the what was the $10,000,000,000 opportunity? But maybe we'll gain some insight. But for the most part for me, I just wanna hear the reminders of, you know, what's important in the way that you run a business, you think about society, what really matters, and No.
我希望我们能听到更多我想听的内容,比如可能存在哪些机会领域——当然你知道沃伦永远不会给你任何具体细节。我是说,你刚才问了那个关于100亿美元投资机会的问题,也许我们能从中获得一些启发。但对我来说,在很大程度上,我只是想听听那些提醒:关于在经营企业、思考社会时什么才是重要的,什么才是真正要紧的。不,
P4172:54:25
I get that. And so, that's why I come.
我明白这一点。所以这就是我来的原因。
P4182:54:28
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Bobby, before you go, I just wanna talk a little bit about Elaine Wynn. She was a dear dear friend of yours who very recently passed away. And I haven't gotten the chance to talk to you publicly about that since. How are you doing?
鲍比,在你离开之前,我只想稍微聊聊伊莱恩·永利(Elaine Wynn)。她曾是你非常非常挚爱的朋友,不久前刚刚去世。自那以后我还没有机会在公开场合和你聊起这件事。你还好吗?
P4192:54:43
Intermission GuestShareholder
That's not easy, you know. Steve and Elaine were my parents and original investors and, you know, it's it's not quite real yet, but it's an incredible loss. Not just for me, but, you know, for so many people, for all the work that she did in education, in the arts, and it's it's been difficult.
这很不容易,你知道。史蒂夫(Steve)和伊莱恩就像我的父母一样,也是我最初的投资人,直到现在这一切还显得有些不真实,但这是一个巨大的损失。这不仅是对我而言,对那么多人、对她在教育和艺术领域所做的所有工作而言都是如此,这段时间真的很艰难。
P4202:55:04
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
She was somebody who came here frequently too, and it was always very good to see Elaine here among people, and I know a lot of people here are remembering her too. So, want to thank you for being with us today.
她以前也是经常来这里的人,在这里的人群中看到伊莱恩总是让人非常高兴,我知道这里的很多人也都在怀念她。非常感谢你今天能来到我们节目中。
P4212:55:14
Intermission GuestShareholder
Thank you for having me.
谢谢你们邀请我。
P4222:55:15
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Again, a remembrance for Elaine Wynn.
再次向伊莱恩·永利致以怀念。
P4232:55:18
Intermission GuestShareholder
It's kind of you to say something. Thank you for having me. I really
很感谢你能提起她。谢谢你们邀请我。我真的
P4242:55:21
Warren BuffettChairman and CEO
appreciate it.
非常感激。
P4252:55:21
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
Thank you.
谢谢你。
P4262:55:23
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
Alright. We've still got some big names on deck for our post show analysis including Berkshire board member Ron Olsen, but I do think we're gonna go to Katie Kramer on the floor. Is that correct?
好的。在会后分析环节我们还有一些重量级嘉宾候场,包括伯克希尔董事会成员罗恩·奥尔森(Ron Olson),不过我想我们现在要把镜头交给在会场内的凯蒂·克莱默(Contessa Brewer / Katie Kramer)。是这样吗?
P4272:55:37
Contessa Brewer Correspondent, CNBC
Hi, Mike. I tracked down one of the shareholders today from the morning session. This is Benjie Sanderson from Pasadena, California who asked a question of Warren Buffett this morning. Benjie, tell me what time you got here today.
嗨,迈克。我在现场找到了一位今天上午场次提问的股东。这位是来自加利福尼亚州帕萨迪纳的本杰·桑德森(Benjie Sanderson),他今天上午向沃伦·巴菲特提了一个问题。本杰,告诉我你今天是几点到这里的。
P4282:55:49
Benjamin Graham SandersonShareholder, Shareholder (California)
Woke up at around 04:20AM and got in line no later than 5AM today.
我今天早上大约04:20醒来,5点之前就排上队了。
P4292:55:53
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
How does it how does it
那是怎么
P4302:55:54
Contessa Brewer Correspondent, CNBC
work to be able to ask a question on the floor of the shareholders meeting?
运作的,才能在股东大会现场获得提问机会呢?
P4312:55:58
Benjamin Graham SandersonShareholder, Shareholder (California)
Yeah. It's a complete lottery. So I was just lucky number one on Zone 5 today. Completely pulled a number, was randomly selected, so luck. You
是的,这完全是抽签碰运气。我今天很幸运地在5区抽到了1号。完全是抽号、随机选中的,所以纯属运气。你
P4322:56:08
Contessa Brewer Correspondent, CNBC
asked about Greg Abel and about, his potential succession of Warren Buffett leading Berkshire Hathaway. Tell me why that was the most important thing for you today.
问了关于格雷格·阿贝尔以及他未来接替沃伦·巴菲特领导伯克希尔·哈撒韦的问题。告诉我为什么那对你来说是今天最重要的事情。
P4332:56:16
Benjamin Graham SandersonShareholder, Shareholder (California)
You know, Warren knows thousands and thousands of managers and he's met them over the years and he's a very careful selector of people and businesses. So the fact that he's chosen Greg but hasn't talked much about it was pretty interesting to me. I assume he's a like I said, an outlier among outliers. So just wanted him to basically introduce him to us, kind of a leave us, a little nugget of wisdom about him before he passes.
你知道,沃伦认识成千上万名管理者,这么多年来他见过无数人,而且他在挑选人才和企业方面非常审慎。所以他选择了格雷格,却没有过多谈论这件事,这让我觉得非常耐人寻味。我猜想他正如我所说的,是“异类中的异类”(翘楚中的翘楚)。所以我只是希望沃伦能把格雷格正式介绍给我们,在交班之前给我们留下一点关于他的智慧结晶。
P4342:56:42
Contessa Brewer Correspondent, CNBC
Did you go through a few drafts of the question? Did you workshop it a little bit with people? What was the process like?
你的这个问题改了几版草稿吗?有没有和别人一起推敲打磨一下?整个过程是怎么样的?
P4352:56:47
Benjamin Graham SandersonShareholder, Shareholder (California)
I was sweating for about an hour from the time I was selected until I asked the question, trying to word it just correctly. Luckily, Warren left us with a little quote about Steve Jobs and, Tim Cook earlier today, so that was a good an easy segue into my question.
从被抽中到我真正提问的那大约一个小时里,我一直在冒汗,试图把措辞改得恰到好处。幸运的是,沃伦今天早些时候给我们留下了一段关于史蒂夫·乔布斯和蒂姆·库克的话,这成了引出我的问题的一个自然又轻松的切入点。
P4362:57:01
Contessa Brewer Correspondent, CNBC
Were you satisfied with the answer?
你对这个回答满意吗?
P4372:57:03
Benjamin Graham SandersonShareholder, Shareholder (California)
You know, to be honest, not really. Buffett is a great teacher, and I think he's in a stage of his life right now where he's leaving the wisdom he wants to leave to everybody. So I'm noticing many of the questions are are being answered in very indirect ways, for better or for worse. So
说实话,不算太满意。巴菲特是一位伟大的老师,我认为他现在正处于这样一个人生阶段:他想把自己希望留下的智慧留给每一个人。所以我注意到很多问题他都在用非常间接的方式来回答,不管是好是坏吧。所以
P4382:57:20
Contessa Brewer Correspondent, CNBC
What are you looking forward to hearing this afternoon in the next question session?
在今天下午接下来的问答环节中,你期待听到些什么?
P4392:57:24
Benjamin Graham SandersonShareholder, Shareholder (California)
There are a ton of fantastic questions. So the cash pile is obviously top of mind. He's an investor and he has cash, so we're all on edge. What is he gonna do with it? What might you do?
有太多极好的问题了。庞大的现金储备显然是大家最关心的头等大事。他是一位投资者,而且手里握有巨额现金,所以我们都翘首以盼:他打算拿这些现金做什么?你会怎么做?
P4402:57:32
What might Greg do? I'm also I don't think the question about Occidental Petroleum has been answered yet, or asked or answered yet. Vicky Hollub, the CEO of Occidental, has expressed in the last few days, I think, that she would it would be a dream come true for her for Buffett to buy controlling interest of Occidental. So I really hope someone asked that question. I've considered asking it as well, but that'll be very interesting to hear, especially given that Greg is not only the successor, but the energy expert at Berkshire.
格雷格可能会怎么做?另外,我觉得关于西方石油公司(Occidental Petroleum)的问题也还没有人问过或回答过。西方石油公司的首席执行官薇姬·霍卢布(Vicki Hollub)我想在过去几天里曾表示,如果巴菲特能买下西方石油的控股权,对她来说将是梦想成真。所以我真的很希望有人能问这个问题。我也考虑过问这个问题,能听听他们的回答将会非常有趣,尤其是考虑到格雷格不仅是接班人,还是伯克希尔的能源专家。
P4412:58:00
Contessa Brewer Correspondent, CNBC
A lot of thoughtful shareholder questions to come. I'll send it back to you guys. We'll do some more shopping and head into the afternoon session.
接下来还会有很多有深度的股东提问。我把时间交还给演播室的各位。我们再去逛一逛采购一番,然后进入下午的会议环节。
P4422:58:08
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
Alright, Katie. Thanks. Wow. He has a lot of clear views on what else might be in store in the next session, the q and a. We do have Warren Buffett and Greg Abel.
好的,凯蒂,谢谢。哇,他对于接下来的问答环节还有什么看点有着非常清晰的见解。我们看到沃伦·巴菲特和格雷格·阿贝尔已经就位了。
P4432:58:17
They are heading back to the stage for the final q and a session for another couple of hours. This is a compressed program, but they're still out there. Gonna take two hours of of q and a on the way in. I did wanna mention perhaps the lightest moment in the in the morning session where somebody asked about Berkshire's ownership of the hot dog chain in Chicago Portillo's. It turns out this person who got a question to Warren Buffett kinda botched it.
他们正回到台上,准备开始最后几个小时的问答环节。这次的日程有所压缩,但他们依然在台上,接下来还会有两个小时的问答。在切入现场之前,我确实想提一下今天上午场次里最轻松搞笑的一个瞬间:有人问起了伯克希尔持有芝加哥热狗连锁店Portillo's股份的事。结果发现,这位好不容易向沃伦·巴菲特提问的人搞了个乌龙。
P4442:58:41
The real owner is Berkshire Partners, which is a private equity firm not affiliated with Berkshire Hathaway. So, somebody fumbled that opportunity, but yet it still led to a very interesting and fun ten minute answer from Warren Buffett about the restaurant business. We're gonna take you there to the afternoon q and a session right now.
Portillo's真正的老板是Berkshire Partners(伯克希尔合伙公司),那是一家与伯克希尔·哈撒韦毫无关系的私募股权公司。所以那位提问者浪费了那次机会,但这依然引出了沃伦·巴菲特关于餐饮行业一段长达十分钟、非常有趣且好玩的回答。现在我们马上把大家带到下午的问答环节现场。
P4452:59:13
Greg AbelVice Chairman of Non-Insurance Operations
We're right at she's not here yet, but she just come up. She's coming up. Okay. Our directors are just coming in.
我们差不多到了——她还没到,但她刚走上来,她正走上来。好的,我们的董事们正在入场。
P4462:59:22
Warren BuffettChairman and CEO
Oh, yeah.
噢,是的。
P4472:59:24
Greg AbelVice Chairman of Non-Insurance Operations
We'll give it a cut. May not start right on eleven, but it's close.
我们准备开始吧。可能不会正好在十一点整准时开始,但也差不多了。
P4483:00:02
Warren BuffettChairman and CEO
Okay, everyone. Okay. We're ready to go and I'm going to lead off by actually recommending a movie. I know that's why you came. But I would recommend to all of you that you go to Amazon Prime.
好了,各位。好的,我们准备开始了。首先我要给大家推荐一部电影作为开场。我知道你们就是冲着这个来的。但我真心地向在座各位推荐,去亚马逊Prime视频(Amazon Prime)看看。
P4493:00:55
I've got no financial interest in this, but you go to Amazon Prime and click on a a documentary called becoming Catherine Graham. It's an incredible story from fifty or so years ago. And to some extent, I had the good luck to be kind of a a viewer of some some American history So if if if you feel that that I misled you, you can write me a note and I promise to report how many how many readers didn't agree with. But click on click on to becoming Catherine Graham and you'll see a story of a remarkable story of American history.
我在这部片子里没有任何经济利益,但你们可以去亚马逊Prime上点击观看一部名叫《成为凯瑟琳·格雷厄姆》(Becoming Katharine Graham)的纪录片。那是一段发生在五十多年前、令人难以置信的故事。而且在某种程度上,我有幸成为了那段美国历史的某种见证者。所以如果你们看完觉得我误导了你们,可以给我写封信,我保证会向大家汇报有多少读者不同意我的看法。但请去点击观看《成为凯瑟琳·格雷厄姆》,你们将会看到一段非凡的美国历史故事。
P4503:01:58
And there are a good many portions in there that I who lived through that period didn't know about at the time. And I think I don't think really every American citizen ought to watch it. So with that, I hope you all spend some more money out there in our friendly shops, and we will go to Station 9.
而且里面有相当多内容,就连我这个亲身经历过那个年代的人当时都不知道。我认为每一个美国公民都应该看一看这部纪录片。说到这里,我希望大家再去外面的友好商店里多花点钱,现在我们有请9号提问区。
P4513:02:35
RobertShareholder, Shareholder (Toronto)
Hi, Warren. My name is Robert, and I'm a shareholder from, Toronto, Canada. So, Warren, three years ago, Charlie Rose, asked you a question to the effect of what you wanted to be remembered for, and your reply was he was a teacher. So in that spirit, Greg, I'm curious to hear maybe a story of where you learned something very, you know, profound from Warren. I'm sure you learned many things, but if there's a story that kinda comes up in your mind, we'd love to hear it.
嗨,沃伦。我叫罗伯特,是一名来自加拿大多伦多的股东。沃伦,三年前查理·罗斯(Charlie Rose)问过你一个问题,大意是你希望被后人记住什么,当时你的回答是“一位老师”。本着这种精神,格雷格,我很想听你讲一个你从沃伦那里学到极其深刻道理的故事。我相信你学到了很多东西,但如果你脑海中正好浮现出某个故事,我们非常想听一听。
P4523:03:09
And vice versa, if we have the time, Warren, what's something that you maybe learned from Greg? Thank you.
反过来,如果时间允许的话,沃伦,你从格雷格身上学到过什么呢?谢谢。
P4533:03:16
Warren BuffettChairman and CEO
Yeah. I will turn this over to Greg in just one second. But now the main thing I'd like to be known for is old age.
好的,我马上把这个问题交给格雷格。不过现在,我最希望被人记住的特点是“长寿”。
P4543:03:27
Greg AbelVice Chairman of Non-Insurance Operations
Well, Warren is, obviously a remarkable teacher and and I benefit from that every day and and and as I've already touched on for many years. I'm fortunate that if I had to, be remembered as something right now, obviously, I'd, wanna be remembered as a great father, but equally a coach. And I and that goes to family, friends, and just being involved with the kids I coach in hockey or baseball or whatever it may be. I think we've got a a great opportunity to give back to them at a very young age. Obviously, those would be how I'd wanna be remembered and hopefully that'll be, many, many years from now.
嗯,沃伦显然是一位了不起的老师,我每天都在从中受益,而且正如我之前提到的,多年来一直如此。我很幸运,如果我现在必须选择因某件事被人铭记,显然我希望作为一位好父亲被人铭记,但同样也希望作为一名好教练被人铭记。这既包括对家人、朋友,也包括参与执教孩子们的冰球、棒球或其他任何运动。我认为我们有一个极好的机会在孩子们很小的时候回馈他们。显然,这些就是我希望被人记住的方式,而且希望那是许多、许多年以后的事了。
P4553:04:21
But, but and I I love thinking of Warren truly as a teacher and and and he's in every day get the opportunity to continue to learn. Warren and I, his dialogue is strong every week and we're always talking around opportunities in Berkshire or things that are going on globally or in The US and each one's Truly a truly a learning moment I'll I'll maybe go back to the very first meeting with Warren And because it still stands out in my mind obviously it was incredible opportunity we Warren was Buying over Acquiring mid American energy holdings company at that time or or or thinking about it and we had the I had the opportunity With my partners go over there on a a Saturday morning and we're discussing. The the business and Warren had the financial statements in front of them. And, like anybody, I I was sort of expecting a few questions on how the business was performing or a variety of things, but Warren locked in immediately to what was on the balance sheet and the fact we had some derivative contracts, the weapons of mass destruction. And associated with the utility business, we do have them because they they use them to match certain positions and they they're never matched perfectly, but you do have them and were required in the regulated business.
而且我非常喜欢把沃伦真正看作是一位老师,每天我都有机会继续向他学习。沃伦和我每周都有深入的交流,我们总是在探讨伯克希尔内部的机会,或者全球及美国正在发生的事情,每一次交流都是真正的学习时刻。我或许可以回顾一下我和沃伦的第一次见面,因为那次经历至今仍令我印象深刻。显然那是一个不可思议的机会,当时沃伦正在收购、或者考虑收购中美能源控股公司(MidAmerican Energy Holdings Company),我和我的合伙人有幸在一个周六的上午去拜访他,讨论公司的业务。当时沃伦面前摆着财务报表。像任何人一样,我本来以为他会问几个关于业务经营表现之类的问题,但沃伦立刻锁定了资产负债表上的内容,注意到我们有一些衍生品合约——也就是他所说的“大规模杀伤性武器”。在与公用事业相关的业务中,我们确实持有这类合约,因为业务上需要用它们来匹配特定的头寸,尽管永远无法做到完美匹配,但在受监管的公用事业业务中你确实会持有它们,而且这也是被要求的。
P4563:06:00
But I I just remember Warren going to it immediately and asking the composition of it and what was the underlying risk in it and wanting to thoroughly underlie understand it. It wasn't that big of a position but it was absolutely one of the risks he was concerned about as he was acquiring MidAmerican. And obviously, light of Enron and everything that gone on, it was a very pertinent question. And then the follow-up to that was then there's an energy crisis in The US, around electricity and natural gas, and a variety of folks were were making significant sums of money. This is a year, eighteen months later.
但我清楚地记得,沃伦立刻直奔这一项,询问它的具体构成以及背后的潜在风险,并希望彻彻底底地搞清楚它。那个头寸规模并不算太大,但这绝对是他在收购中美能源时最为担忧的风险之一。显然,考虑到安然事件(Enron)以及当时发生的一切,这是一个非常切中要害的问题。而后来的后续故事是,一年到十八个月之后,美国爆发了一场围绕电力和天然气的能源危机,各路人马都在大赚特赚。
P4573:06:46
And Warren's follow-up question, couple years later to me was, and I knew it was more just checking or testing. So how much money are we making during this energy crisis? Are we making a lot? Do, you know, do we, are are are the speculative positions in place? And are we making it?
那是在一两年之后,沃伦紧接着问了我一个问题——我知道他更多只是在核查或者检验我们:“在这次能源危机期间我们赚了多少钱?我们赚得盆满钵满了吗?我们是不是持有投机性头寸?我们靠这个发财了吗?”
P4583:07:04
The answer was, we're really not making any more today than we would have been, six months ago because all those derivatives were truly to support our business and weren't speculative. Just just that focus on understanding the business of what he was acquiring, understanding the risks around it, still stand out in my mind. Warren?
我的回答是,我们今天赚的钱其实并不比六个月前多,因为所有那些衍生品都纯粹是为了支持我们的主营业务,而不是为了投机。他那种专注于彻底理解所收购企业的业务本质、理解其周边风险的态度,至今仍深深印在我的脑海里。沃伦?
P4593:07:28
Warren BuffettChairman and CEO
Yeah. It's it's that's one thing we've ever really never talked about here but I spend more time looking at balance sheets than I do income statements. And Wall Street really doesn't pay much attention to balance sheets, but I I like to look at balance sheets over an eight or ten year period before I even look at the income account. Because there are certain things that's harder to hide or play games with on the balance sheet than than you can with the income statement. And yeah, I mean neither one gives you the total answer on anything, but you you still ought you ought to understand what the figures are are saying and what they don't say and what they can't say and what the management will like them to say that the auditors wouldn't like them to say.
是的。有一件事我们在这里其实从来没有真正谈论过,那就是我看资产负债表花的时间比看利润表要多。华尔街其实并不太关注资产负债表,但我喜欢在看利润表之前,先看一家公司八年或十年期的资产负债表。因为有些东西在资产负债表上要比在利润表上更难隐藏或玩弄花招。是的,这两张表没有哪一张能给你关于任何问题的全部答案,但你仍然应该弄明白这些数字在说什么、没说什么、不能说什么,以及管理层希望它们说什么而审计师却不希望它们说什么。
P4603:08:20
And I mean, there's just a lot to be learned. And and you do learn more. You learn more from from balance sheets, in my view, than most people give them credit for. In in terms of I really haven't I'm not worried about being remembered about that. People people don't remember.
我是说,这里面有太多值得学习的东西了。而且你确实能学到更多。在我看来,你从资产负债表中能学到的东西,比大多数人认为的要多得多。至于被人铭记这件事,我真的并不担心因为那个被人记住。人们是不会记住的。
P4613:08:47
Well, they don't remember enough about Catherine Graham, for example, in in terms of this story that shaped America in many ways, certainly, it had just all kinds of impact. And I I think I mean history is so fascinating. And Charlie was probably the best person you could imagine in what he learned. Charlie was never satisfied with just superficial things about any subject. He really wanted to understand it.
好比说,人们对凯瑟琳·格雷厄姆(Katharine Graham)记得就不够多,尽管她的故事在很多方面塑造了美国,当然也产生了各种各样的深远影响。我认为历史是如此引人入胜。而查理可能是你能想象到的最善于学习的人。查理对任何课题都绝不会满足于只了解皮毛,他总是想要真正把它弄懂。
P4623:09:30
And he always would tell me that, you know, don't take a position on anything and and Joe, you can describe the arguments against it better than the person who is arguing with you, that you should be able to argue their case better than they can. He was he was a remarkable teacher and but so and so were those other fellows I mentioned. I've had a and of course my dad was an incredible teacher. So you make the most of the people you meet that are going to make you a better person and probably forget about the rest to quite an extent. Okay.
而且他以前总是告诉我:除非你能比你的辩论对手把反对你立场的理由阐述得更好,否则永远不要对任何事情轻易持有一个立场——你应该能够比对方更有力地论证他们的观点。他是一位了不起的老师,而且我之前提到的其他那些人也是如此。当然,我的父亲更是一位不可思议的老师。所以,要充分珍惜你遇到的那些能让你变得更好的人,至于其余的人,在很大程度上大概就可以忘掉了。好的。
P4633:10:23
Let's move on to number Becky, you're next.
让我们继续下一个问题——贝琪,接下来归你了。
P4643:10:28
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
This question comes from David Rubin, a shareholder from Scottsdale, Arizona. It's a question for Greg. We've heard over the decades and are familiar with Warren and Charlie's investment thesis and their circle of competence. During the first ten years after taking over as CEO, Greg will be tasked with allocating more capital during that time than Berkshire has had to allocate in its Berkshire Given this, I'd like to hear from Greg about his views on capital allocation, particularly into new businesses.
这个问题来自亚利桑那州斯科茨代尔的股东大卫·鲁宾(David Rubin)。这是提给格雷格的问题。几十年来我们一直聆听并熟悉了沃伦和查理的投资理念以及他们的能力圈原则。在格雷格接任首席执行官后的头十年里,他将承担配置的资本规模,将超过伯克希尔整个历史(in its history)上所配置过的资本总和。有鉴于此,我想听听格雷格关于资本配置、特别是向新业务配置资本的看法。
P4653:11:01
Warren BuffettChairman and CEO
Sure. So
当然。所以
P4663:11:05
Greg AbelVice Chairman of Non-Insurance Operations
this bar is not too high. No, it's, but very fortunate when you think of Berkshire again, and we've we've talked about this where we start from and I'll I'll clearly touch on the investment and the related investment allocation. But we start from a great great place where we've got a a great culture within the business. We have values that we, a management team, and and and really as defined by Warren and and those, Charlie and and everybody associated with the business, we've got great values that really set Berkshire Berkshire up well for the for the future. And obviously, as we deploy capital, and allocate capital, it's critical to Berkshire as we go forward.
这个门槛设得还不算太高嘛(笑)。不,当你再次想到伯克希尔时,我们真的非常幸运——我们已经谈过我们的起点在哪里,接下来我也会明确谈到投资以及相关的资本配置。但我们的起点非常非常高,我们在企业内部拥有极好的文化。我们拥有共同的价值观、优秀的管理团队,而且正如沃伦、查理以及所有与公司相关的人所确立的那样,我们拥有卓越的价值观,这为伯克希尔的未来奠定了极其良好的基础。显然,随着我们部署资本和配置资本,这对伯克希尔未来的发展至关重要。
P4673:11:57
And equally, it's around, managing risk. But when I think of our our our values, there are a couple that are absolutely critical. One, we'll maintain the reputation of of Berkshire and and that of our our company. And and I view that in investing or how we operate things across each of our businesses. That will always be a priority and something that will will ensure is in the forefront of our minds.
同样,这也关乎风险管理。但当我思考我们的价值观时,有几点是绝对关键的。第一,我们将始终维护伯克希尔以及我们公司的声誉。无论是在投资中,还是在我们旗下各个企业的日常运营中,我都是这样看待声誉的。这永远是重中之重,也是我们将始终确保置于脑海最核心位置的事情。
P4683:12:33
I think equally as we, then look at our our various our back to Warren's balance sheet comment, we will have a fortress of a balance sheet. And we want to I thought Sue Decker, our lead director, said it well yesterday. We've got a we've got a significant set of cash right now. But it it's an enormous asset to have that. And that will continue to be a philosophy.
我认为同样重要的是,回到沃伦刚才关于资产负债表的评论,我们将继续保持坚如磐石的资产负债表。我觉得我们的首席独立董事苏·德克尔(Sue Decker)昨天说得很好:我们目前拥有规模庞大的现金储备,但拥有这笔现金是一项巨大的资产。这将继续成为我们的经营哲学。
P4693:13:03
Yes. When we can deploy it, we'll deploy it well, and I'll come to that. But equally, we do recognize it as a strategic asset, and it allows us to weather the difficult times and and at the same and and and not be dependent on anybody. So, again, that will be an, an investment philosophy. We will remain Berkshire, and we will never be dependent on a bank or some other party for Berkshire to be, successful.
是的,当我们能够部署这些资金时,我们会把它部署好,这一点我马上会谈到。但同样,我们也确实将它视为一项战略性资产,它让我们能够安然度过艰难时期,同时不依赖于任何外人。所以,这仍将是我们的投资哲学。我们将依然是伯克希尔,伯克希尔的成功永远不会依赖于某家银行或任何其他第三方。
P4703:13:38
I would thank you. I would then move to to touch on allocation of capital be absolutely critical. But with that comes, management of risk and and understanding risk. And that falls upon, all our managers, insurance, non insurance, but we'll bring that across Berkshire. And then the other value I would touch on, but that really relates to where I'm going is, ultimately, we have a great set of operating companies that do produce significant cash flows, be it in the insurance companies creating float, or various non insurance companies producing significant cash flows on a on an annual basis.
谢谢你们(掌声)。接下来我想谈谈绝对至关重要的资本配置。但随之而来的是管理风险和理解风险。这一责任落在我们所有的管理者肩上,无论是保险业务还是非保险业务,我们都会将这一理念贯彻到整个伯克希尔。然后我想谈到的另一项价值观——这与我接下来要讲的内容密切相关——那就是归根结底,我们拥有一批非常优秀的运营子公司,它们能够产生极其可观的现金流,无论是保险公司创造的浮存金,还是各家非保险公司每年产生的巨额现金流。
P4713:14:30
We intend to continue to ensure that's the strength of Berkshire as we go forward. It's absolutely critical to our to our long term success. Now, with those cash flows and with the float, and then equally as touched on, we have significant resources already on our balance sheet. We'll really continue to move forward with a very similar philosophy or it's an identical philosophy to what we've had currently and and and for the past sixty years. We'll start by looking at those opportunities within our business.
在未来的发展中,我们打算继续确保这一优势成为伯克希尔的力量源泉。这对我们的长期成功绝对至关重要。那么,有了这些源源不断的现金流和浮存金,再加上刚才提到的我们资产负债表上已有的庞大资源,我们将继续秉持与目前以及过去六十年非常相似、甚至完全相同的哲学向前迈进。我们首先会审视我们现有业务内部的机会。
P4723:15:08
And by that, I mean within our insurance, non insurance businesses. Are they are they properly capitalized and have the opportunity to manage their business? And that, that will continue to exist. They'll operate in an autonomous way. But in the end, Berkshire still manages the capital that will go into that those businesses or what potentially will come out of those businesses.
我指的是我们现有的保险和非保险业务内部:它们的资本是否充足?是否有充足的机会去经营好自己的业务?这一机制将会继续保持下去,它们将继续以高度自主的方式运营。但归根结底,依然由伯克希尔来管理投入这些业务的资本,以及可能从这些业务中汇回的资本。
P4733:15:33
Equally, the next opportunity is to acquire businesses in their totality or a %. And there are great times when we can do that. Warren touched on, we had one that was interesting in the last quarter, the $10,000,000,000 acquisition. But again, the value relative to the risk have to be right. And if it's right, we wanna own it.
同样,下一个层面的机会是全资收购企业,或者说收购100%的股权。在很多美好的时机里我们可以做到这一点。沃伦刚才提到,我们在上个季度就有一个很有意思的项目,就是那笔100亿美元的收购。但同样,相对于风险而言,其价值必须是合适的。如果价格合适,我们就想要拥有它。
P4743:15:58
If it's not the time, there'll be another time to own assets like that. And then there's the opportunity to own pieces of of companies through the equity. But as Warren's always highlighted, and again, this will be our approach to to how we think around those companies. Though we we own a piece of a company. We own a a piece of that cash flow.
如果眼下时机不对,将来总会有其他时机去拥有那样的资产。再有就是通过股票市场购买部分股权、从而拥有公司一部分的机会。正如沃伦一直强调的那样——这同样也将是我们看待这些公司的方式——即便我们只拥有一家公司的一部分股权,我们拥有的也是它那一部分现金流。
P4753:16:26
We own a piece of their balance sheet. It's not just a a share certificate. And as we approach that, and really, we'll approach it with the thought that we're gonna own this company for the long term. It's again, understanding what, be it the % company or the 1% company, do we thoroughly understand? And thoroughly, do we have a strong view of what those economic prospects of those companies will look like?
我们拥有的是它资产负债表的一部分,而不仅仅是一张股票凭证。当我们以这种方式去投资时,我们会抱着长期持有这家公司的想法去做。归根结底,无论是收购100%股权的公司,还是持有1%股权的公司,核心都在于:我们是否彻彻底底地理解它?我们对这些公司未来的经济前景是否有着强有力且清晰的判断?
P4763:16:55
And Warren said it earlier, five years from now, ten years from now, twenty years from now. If if we don't have a view of that, we won't be investing, be it a % or 2% of a company through equities. We have to thoroughly understand what those prospects look like. And associated with understanding those prospects, we need to understand the underlying risk of the businesses. And it's it's really the investment philosophy and and and how we how Warren and and the team have allocated capital for the past sixty years, you know, really, the the it it will not change and it's it's it's the approach we'll take as we go forward.
正如沃伦刚才所说,无论是5年后、10年后还是20年后,如果我们对公司那时的前景没有清晰的判断,我们就不会去投资,哪怕是通过股票买入一家公司1%或2%的股份。我们必须透彻理解这些前景是什么样的。而在理解前景的同时,我们还需要弄清楚业务背后的潜在风险。这实际上就是我们的投资哲学,也是沃伦和团队在过去60年里配置资本的方式,这真的不会改变,也是我们未来继续秉持的方法。
P4773:17:46
Warren? Yeah.
沃伦?是的。
P4783:17:48
Warren BuffettChairman and CEO
And I don't wanna go on too long on this, but Sorry, I covered it. No, no, no. But this is this is important because the, you know, it's it's very obvious that the country, for example, needs incredible improvement, rethinking, redirection even to some extent in the grid. I mean, we've outgrown what would be the model that America should have. And in a sense, it's a problem something akin to the interstate highway system where you needed the power of the government really to get things done because it doesn't work so well.
我不想在这个话题上讲太久,但——抱歉,我已经讲过了?不,不,不。但这件事很重要,因为显而易见,举例来说,这个国家在电网方面需要巨大的改进、重新思考,甚至在一定程度上需要重新调整方向。我的意思是,现有的电网已经跟不上美国应有的发展模式了。从某种意义上说,这个问题类似于当年的州际高速公路系统,你真正需要借助政府的力量才能把事情办成,因为单靠分散的力量是行不通的。
P4793:18:46
When you get 48 or 50 jurisdictions, that each has their own way of thinking about things. And of course in World War two, we called in people a dollar an hour and we knew we had to turn out ships like crazy and we knew that we had to convert Ford Motor from from being a car manufacturer into an aircraft manufacturer in a matter of days, not weeks, not months. So you need the there are certain really major investment situations where we have capital like nobody else has in the private system. We have particular know how in in in in the whole generation transmission arena. The country is going to need it, but we have to figure out a way that makes sense from the standpoint of the government, that stands from the standpoint of the public and from the standpoint of Berkshire, and we haven't figured that out yet.
当你面对48个或50个司法管辖区时,每个地方都有自己的一套想法。当然,在第二次世界大战期间,我们以每小时1美元的报酬征召人员,我们知道必须疯狂地造船,也知道必须在几天之内——而不是几周、也不是几个月——把福特汽车从一家汽车制造商改造成一家飞机制造商。所以,在某些真正重大的投资情境下,我们在私营体系中拥有无人能及的庞大资本,在发电和输电整个领域也拥有独特的专业知识。国家将会需要这些,但我们必须找到一种从政府角度、从公众角度以及从伯克希尔角度来看都行得通的方式,而我们目前还没有找到那个办法。
P4803:20:00
Don't know whether Greg wants to even explain a few of the major problems, but but that is a that is a clear and present use of hundreds of billions of dollars. And, you know, you have people that set up funds and say, you know, they're getting they're getting paid for just assembling something. It it it's it it it that's not the way to handle it. The way the way to handle it is to have some kind of a a government private industry cooperation similar to what you do in in a war. And and I don't think when they were doing the highway system, don't think the government set up its own guys that were gonna pour all cement or anything like that.
我不知道格雷格是否想具体解释几个主要问题,但这确实是一个明确且紧迫的、需要投入数千亿美元的领域。你知道,有些人设立了基金,声称只要把项目拼凑起来就能拿报酬。那不是解决问题的办法。真正的解决办法是建立某种公私合营的合作机制,类似于战时的做法。而且我想,当年修建州际高速公路系统的时候,政府并没有自己组建一支队伍去浇筑所有的水泥或做类似的事情。
P4813:20:47
But they you needed a cooperation and and and we're at that point I think in terms of energy. But I don't think I don't think we've made any progress particularly though. Tell us more about that, Larry.
但你确实需要合作,我认为在能源领域我们已经到了这个节点。不过我觉得我们目前在这方面还没有取得什么实质性的进展。跟我们多聊聊这方面的情况吧,格雷格。
P4823:21:04
Greg AbelVice Chairman of Non-Insurance Operations
Yeah. And I think these are very unique in that, not unique in that it's sort of reflective of where we're at. There will be very significant investment opportunities across a variety of industries. As Warren touched on in the electrics in the electric industry, or the energy space, we obviously know that well with our with our existing business. And the capital required to meet the long term needs of of of what's currently projected as demand is enormous.
是的。我认为这些情况非常独特——或者说并非独一无二,而是反映了我们当前所处的阶段。在众多不同的行业中,都存在着极其可观的投资机会。正如沃伦在电力行业或能源领域所提到的,凭借现有的业务,我们显然对这一行非常了解。而为了满足目前预测的长期需求,所需的资本规模是极其庞大的。
P4833:21:39
And and we, as Berkshire, will be in a good position to, help address those needs. But the the model around it and the risks that need to be addressed to deploy that type of capital will be will be different than they are today, Warren's point. Yeah.
作为伯克希尔,我们将处于非常有利的位置去帮助满足这些需求。但正如沃伦所指出的,围绕这类投资的模式,以及部署如此大规模资本所必须解决的风险问题,都将与今天截然不同。是的。
P4843:21:56
Warren BuffettChairman and CEO
The muscle of the federal government will be needed, but the test of whether you can have 48 or 50 depending on the nature of things, jurisdictions that are cooperating to do something that has opposition will have opposition in every single state. If they'd taken a vote on during World War two, or if they'd taken a vote on the, you know, the interstate highway system, it had it it would have been slowed slowed down to an incredible degree. I so the question is how to use these strengths that this country has to actually turn it in to what it should be capable of while still preserving, you know, a republic with 48 and connected and couple of unconnected states. And and it it is it'll be interesting to see what happens. But we do have capital and we actually have some knowledge that that very few very few places have.
这将需要动用联邦政府的力量,但考验在于,视具体事务的性质而定,你能否让48个或50个司法管辖区通力合作,去完成一件在每一个州都会遭遇反对的事情。如果在二战期间凡事都要投票表决,或者当年修建州际高速公路系统时要投票表决,整个进程就会被难以置信地拖慢。所以问题在于,如何在保留一个由48个相连的州和两个不相连的州组成的共和国体制的同时,真正发挥这个国家所拥有的这些优势,使其发挥出应有的潜能。未来会如何发展将会非常值得关注。但我们确实拥有资本,而且实际上还掌握着极少数机构才具备的专业知识。
P4853:23:07
I mean, we we we know what the game's about. But putting together that energy with knowledge and with capital and everything is it's just not easy. And it should be something that we're capable of in the country, but but the country was not designed for having, in a certain way, was not designed for having 48 different jurisdictions that could mess up anything that you were attempting to do. And during wartime, it's one thing to get agreement, but during during peacetime, it's something it's it's a it's a different problem. That's gonna be one for the next generation, but I'm just it's it's it's important.
我的意思是,我们深知这一行的门道。但要把这种精力与专业知识、资本以及所有其他要素结合起来,绝非易事。按理说这是我们国家有能力做到的事情,但从某种意义上讲,这个国家的制度设计并不是为了应对48个不同的司法管辖区各自为政、从而可能搞砸你试图推进的任何项目的局面。在战时达成共识是一回事,但在和平时期,这就是一个完全不同的难题了。这将是留给下一代人的课题,但我只是觉得这件事非常重要。
P4863:23:55
Okay. Station ten.
好的。10号提问区。
P4873:24:02
Dorcas TangShareholder, Shareholder (Hong Kong)
Good morning, mister Buffett and mister Abel. I'm Dorcas Tang. I'm 14 years old. My father, Roy Tang, MGRT CEO, brought me here for two consecutive years, and I promise I will come back, every year since I queue up at two in the morning every meeting you hold. My dad owned BRKA shares, and he said I need to work hard to earn my piece of BRKB.
早上好,巴菲特先生、阿贝尔先生。我叫唐朵卡(Dorcas Tang),今年14岁。我的父亲罗伊·唐(Roy Tang,MGRT首席执行官)已经连续两年带我来这里了,我保证以后每年都会回来,因为你们举办的每一届股东大会,我都是凌晨两点就起床排队。我爸爸持有伯克希尔A类股(BRK.A),他说我需要努力工作,才能挣到属于我自己的伯克希尔B类股(BRK.B)。
P4883:24:35
We are both, are from China, Hong Kong, and I would like to ask, what's the essential element for a global teenager like me if we want to be part of Berkshire like mister Greg Apple, like, piece of knowledge I should learn so you will hire me in the future?
我们都来自中国香港。我想请问,对于像我这样的全球青少年来说,如果未来想成为像格雷格·阿贝尔先生那样的伯克希尔一员,最关键的要素是什么?我应该学习什么样的知识,你们将来才会录用我?
P4893:25:04
Warren BuffettChairman and CEO
Well, if about the future, you better talk to Greg. So we'll let Greg answer that.
嗯,既然是关于未来的事,你最好去问格雷格。所以我们让格雷格来回答这个问题吧。
P4903:25:10
Dorcas TangShareholder, Shareholder (Hong Kong)
My final words, finally, mister Buffett. I learned a lot from this meeting, and, of course, I will come, here every year. And I wish you can attend as many as possible as you and mister Charlie Munger, the most respectful people have inspired me and my father a lot. I wish you happy and healthy, and maybe one day in the future, we can make the world more prosperous altogether, like you said. Thank you.
最后我还有几句话想对巴菲特先生说。我从这次大会中学到了很多,当然我以后每年都会来这里。我希望您能尽可能多地出席,因为您和查理·芒格先生是最受尊敬的人,给了我和我父亲极大的启发。祝您健康快乐,也许在未来的某一天,就像您说的那样,我们能够共同让这个世界变得更加繁荣。谢谢您。
P4913:25:45
Warren BuffettChairman and CEO
Okay. Thank you.
好的,谢谢你。
P4923:25:55
Greg AbelVice Chairman of Non-Insurance Operations
Yes. Well, I think, your dad your dad said it best. He highlighted that to become part of Berkshire to own some Berkshire shares, you're gonna have to work hard. And I think, hard work takes all of us a long ways in life. And and I would never diminish that.
是的。我觉得你爸爸说得最好。他强调了要想成为伯克希尔的一员、拥有一些伯克希尔的股票,你就必须努力工作。我认为,勤奋工作能让我们所有人在人生道路上走得很远。我永远不会低估这一点。
P4933:26:17
There's a lot of things that matter in life. But if you start with a great work ethic and have that attitude that you're you want to contribute, you're gonna go a long ways in life. And and that'll and and you'll you'll find great enjoyment because as Warren said, you'll then if you work hard, you're gonna find the things you love in life, and it'll lead to that. And, we we truly, look forward to the day you're part of Berkshire. Thank you.
人生中有很多重要的事情,但如果你从良好的职业道德起步,并且抱有想要做出贡献的态度,你在人生中就能走得很远。而且你会从中获得巨大的乐趣,因为正如沃伦所说,如果你努力工作,你就会在生活中找到自己热爱的事物,一切都会水到渠成。我们由衷地期待有一天你能成为伯克希尔的一员。谢谢你。
P4943:26:46
Warren BuffettChairman and CEO
Yeah. Keep keep a lot of curiosity and read a lot, as Charlie would say. Okay, Becky.
是的,正如查理常说的那样,保持强烈的好奇心,多读书。好的,贝基。
P4953:26:56
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
This question comes from Matthew Tizak in Layton, Utah. He said, please discuss your strategy on how to protect our company from future liabilities due to wildfires blamed on our electric utility companies out west.
这个问题来自犹他州莱顿市的马修·蒂扎克(Matthew Tizak)。他说:请谈谈你们的策略,如何保护我们公司免受因西部电力公用事业公司被指责引发山火而产生的未来赔偿责任的影响?
P4963:27:11
Warren BuffettChairman and CEO
Well, that's a very good question. And and we've we've we've made some mistakes in the past when we bought Pacific Corp. In February, what, '5? Yes. Morris Scott and and David Sokol and myself, three guys who who capitalists at heart and had had but we're dealing with our own money, but we we made a mistake by not carving it up into the seven states that we were buying.
嗯,这是一个非常好的问题。我们过去确实犯过一些错误。当我们在2005年(05年,即5年)收购太平洋电力公司(PacifiCorp)时——是的,沃尔特·斯科特(Walter Scott)、大卫·索科尔(David Sokol)和我三个人,骨子里都是资本家,而且管的是我们自己的钱,但我们犯了一个错误,没有把它按我们所收购的业务所在的7个州分拆成独立的公司。
P4973:27:46
And it came it came with an aggregation where it wasn't state by state, and we we kept the same the same structure, and that was a that was a big mistake. There are well, every part of the country is gonna need electricity, and there are gonna be places where where public electric or privately held electric utilities would be very foolish to operate. And how that gets resolved in a democracy, we will find out. But those are the facts as they stand now, would say. Greg?
它买来的时候就是一个整体,而不是按州分开的,我们保留了原有的架构,那是一个大错误。这个国家的每个地方都需要电力,但在某些地方,无论是公营电力公司还是私营电力公用事业公司,再去经营都会是非常愚蠢的。在民主制度下这个问题最终会如何解决,我们将拭目以待。但我想说,这就是目前的客观事实。格雷格?
P4983:28:30
Greg AbelVice Chairman of Non-Insurance Operations
Yeah. The the reality, the risk around the wildfires, I. E. That do the wildfires occur, they're not going away. No.
是的。现实情况是,围绕山火的风险——也就是说山火是否会发生——是不会消失的。绝对不会。
P4993:28:39
And and we know that and the risk probably goes up each year or so. But what we can do to reduce the risk of it impacting our system and our underlying assets and the, unfortunately, the liabilities that come with such events, we can change that and manage that. We can't eliminate the risk, but we can reduce it. And that's where we've got, our teams in the in the West, but we really are approaching it across all our energy infrastructure. Because the the reality is the wildfires have now occurred in, Texas.
我们很清楚这一点,而且这种风险可能每年都会上升。但为了降低山火影响我们的电网系统、底层资产以及不幸随之而来的赔偿责任的风险,我们可以做出改变并进行管理。我们无法彻底消除风险,但我们可以降低风险。因此,我们在西部部署了专门的团队,但实际上我们正在所有能源基础设施中全面推进这项工作。因为现实情况是,现在连得克萨斯州也发生了山火。
P5003:29:16
They've had a variety of them throughout The US, and and we're all very focused on how we manage that risk. How we manage it is we start by addressing the actual assets, how we're maintaining them, and where we invest them, invest into them. So we try to make sure that they're either not causing the fire or potentially even hardening the system as to what can they withstand. So it's very much, that we start with the operational folk, focus. We then take it even further, and this is something Warren and I've discussed many times, is that the utilities started to recognize when we have these unusual weather events, and Warren touched on what's been happening in Nebraska with storms, but they're equally occurring or or significant events occurring out west.
全美各地都发生了大大小小的山火,我们都非常专注于如何管理这种风险。我们的管理方式是,首先从具体的资产入手,改善维护方式并明确投资方向。我们努力确保这些设备要么不会引发火灾,要么对系统进行加固以提高其抵御灾害的能力。因此,我们首先高度聚焦于运营层面。接着我们更进一步——这也是沃伦和我多次讨论过的——公用事业公司开始意识到,当遇到反常的极端天气事件时(沃伦刚才提到了内布拉斯加州遭遇的风暴,而西部地区同样也在发生重大的极端天气事件),必须采取不同的应对措施。
P5013:30:12
But when we have those, we've gotten very, very good at saying, we have to manage the system differently. We'll potentially de energize because there's likely to be an event. But the one thing we hadn't tackled, and this is very relevant to the one significant event we had back in 2020 in Pacific Corp, is we didn't de energize the system as the fire was approaching. Because our our employees and the whole management team have been, all their lives, trained to keep the lights on. And the last thing they wanna do is turn those lights off and and have a system de energized.
当遇到这些情况时,我们已经非常善于果断做出决定:我们必须以不同的方式管理电网系统,因为很可能会发生灾害事件,我们会考虑主动断电(de-energize)。但有一件事我们过去没有做到——这与2020年太平洋电力公司遭遇的那场重大山火事件密切相关——那就是当山火逼近时,我们没有主动切断系统电源。因为我们的员工和整个管理团队一辈子接受的培训都是“保持供电、让灯亮着”。他们最不愿意做的事情就是把灯关掉、切断电网系统的电源。
P5023:30:49
And after those events and as we really looked at how we're gonna move forward in in managing the the assets and reducing that risk, we we have clearly recognized as as a team that we have to de energize those assets. So now as we get fires encroaching at a certain, number of miles, we de energize because we do not want to contribute to the fire, nor obviously harm any of our consumers or contribute, unfortunately, if there's a death. And and that's really where we had to take our team, that we're managing a different risk now. It's not around keeping the lights on. It's around protecting the general public and ensuring the fire does not spread further.
在经历了那些事件之后,当我们认真审视未来该如何管理资产并降低风险时,我们整个团队清楚地认识到,我们必须主动切断那些资产的电源。因此现在,一旦有山火蔓延到距离设施一定英里数的范围内,我们就会主动断电,因为我们绝不想助长火势,显然更不想伤害任何客户,或者不幸导致人员伤亡。这就是我们必须带领团队实现的转变:我们现在管理的是另一种风险。现在的首要任务不再是单纯保持供电,而是保护公众安全,并确保火势不会进一步蔓延。
P5033:31:33
So we've gone as far as that. And I would, I'll stand corrected on this one, but we're probably the one utility or across our utilities that does that today. And we strongly believe that. Becky?
所以我们已经做到了这一步。如果我说错了请纠正我,但我们目前可能是唯一一家、或者说在旗下各公用事业公司中全面推行这一做法的公用事业集团。而且我们对此深信不疑。贝基?
P5043:31:48
Contessa Brewer Correspondent, CNBC
Can I
我能——
P5053:31:49
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
just follow-up on that? Yeah. Doesn't that open you up to other risk if you shut down your system, a hospital gets shut down, somebody dies?
我能就这一点追问一下吗?是的。如果你们关停了电力系统,导致医院停电、有人因此丧生,这难道不会让你们面临其他风险吗?
P5063:31:57
Greg AbelVice Chairman of Non-Insurance Operations
We're we we've, you know, fortunately, that's something that we do deal with a lot because we have power outages that occur by accident. So when we look at critical infrastructure, because it's excellent point, and we're constantly reevaluating it, And we do receive a lot of feedback from our customer groups as to how do we manage that. But that is something we deal with on a a more routine basis than we'd ever like. The lights go out, we have to make sure the hospitals stay on, emergency units can respond and all that. But there is risk there.
幸运的是,这正是我们经常处理的事情,因为平时也会发生意外停电。所以当我们审视关键基础设施时——你提的这一点非常到位,我们也在不断重新评估——我们确实从客户群体那里收到了大量关于如何管理这一问题的反馈。但这是我们日常处理得比我们预想中更为频繁的事情。一旦停电,我们必须确保医院继续运转、急救部门能够响应等等。不过这里面确实存在风险。
P5073:32:30
So then we spend a lot more time educating the consumers and our consumer groups, our customers. Okay. This is what will happen. We need to understand your unusual situations and how can we best tackle that again so we just don't take on another liability. So there's a lot around de energization.
因此,我们会花更多时间与消费者、消费者团体以及客户进行沟通和宣导:好,接下来会发生这样的情况,我们需要了解你们的特殊状况,以及我们该如何最好地应对,从而避免承担另一种赔偿责任。所以围绕主动断电有大量细致的工作要做。
P5083:32:52
And then just to take it to the last step, and Warren's touched on that just in general on energy policy, we have to work with our states and our regulators to ensure this was never a risk we took on or or envisioned when we were investing in utilities, nor would any of the investors who've invested in other energy companies. You earn a you earn a very set return for taking on a very set defined risk associated with that asset. And this has gone well beyond that. We don't earn the type of returns, nor can you earn a large enough return to take on these risks. So it's it's not just about solving the return side.
然后再说到最后一步,沃伦刚才在谈论总体能源政策时也提到了,我们必须与所在的各个州以及监管机构合作,明确这绝不是我们当初投资公用事业时所承担或预想到的风险,任何投资于其他能源公司的投资者也不会预想到这种风险。你承担与该资产相关的非常明确、界定清晰的风险,从而赚取非常固定的回报。而现在的风险已经远远超出了那个范畴。我们并没有赚取那种级别的回报,而且你也根本不可能赚到足够高的回报来覆盖这些风险。所以这不仅仅是解决回报端的问题。
P5093:33:36
We really have to solve the risk side, which means we work with our regulators. We're working with our state legislators to get to the right answer. And that's really just that'll be an ongoing process. There are not silver bullets out there, but every day our teams across utilities are working hard to reduce that risk, recognizing the fundamental risk of the wildfires is not going away.
我们必须真正解决风险端的问题,这意味着我们要与监管机构合作,与各州立法机构合作,以找到正确的解决方案。这将是一个持续推进的过程。世上没有万灵药,但我们旗下各家公用事业公司的团队每天都在努力降低这种风险,同时清醒地认识到山火的基本风险是不会消失的。
P5103:34:00
Warren BuffettChairman and CEO
Yeah. Warren? But there's some prop yeah. There's some there's some problems that can't be solved. And we we shouldn't be in the business of taking our money, investors' money, and and and tackling things that we don't know the solution for.
是的。沃伦?但有些问题——是的,有些问题是无法解决的。我们不应该拿自己的钱、拿投资者的钱,去干那些连我们自己都不知道如何解决的事情。
P5113:34:14
And there's you can present the arguments, but it it's a political decision when you are dealing with states or the federal government. And if you're in something where you're going to lose, the big thing to do is quit. And you present your case as well as you can and everything else. But if you don't hold the pen in the end, you know, we don't have any business taking your money and doing dumb things with us. And and we can do our best to explain what the intelligent things are.
你可以摆出各种论据,但当你与各州或联邦政府打交道时,这归根结底是一个政治决定。如果你身处一个注定要输的局里,最该做的事情就是退出。你可以竭尽全力去陈述你的理由、做好其他一切工作。但如果最终签字拍板的笔不在你手里,我们就没有任何理由拿你们的钱去陪我们做傻事。我们可以尽最大努力去解释什么是明智的做法。
P5123:34:56
But it's your money. And so it's it's very hard to tell how to handle the questions of politically determined decisions that are going to go to court in many cases. But you know that that it just doesn't it doesn't make sense. We we know what we think a sensible system would be, but and we ought to explain what what what we think it is and and, you know, do the best to get our position because it's pro social to have the right solution to have it. But the right solution, for example, in the interstate wasn't to let 48 states each decide on their own way of doing it and award contractors the jobs based.
但那是你们的钱。所以,面对那些由政治决定的、并且在许多情况下最终会闹上法庭的问题,很难说到底该如何处理。但你很清楚,目前的状况根本讲不通。我们知道什么才是合情合理的制度,我们也应该把自己的想法解释清楚,并尽最大努力争取支持我们的立场,因为找到正确的解决方案是有利于全社会的。但正确的解决方案,就好比当年修建州际高速公路一样,绝不是让48个州各自决定自己的修法、各自去给承包商发包。
P5133:35:57
You know, there's just there's some problems that can't that can't be solved, and we are not in the business of trying to solve insolvable problems.
你知道,有些问题就是无法解决的,而我们的业务不是去试图解决那些无解的问题。
P5143:36:08
Greg AbelVice Chairman of Non-Insurance Operations
Yeah. I didn't go for example But
是的。我刚才没有展开举例,但——
P5153:36:10
Warren BuffettChairman and CEO
then the problem you have, of course, is that the people that work for you, That's that it's their job. So they they they they they wanna have reasons to keep going. And that's a that's a it's those are tough choices if you're managing, but that's what's that's why they have managers.
当然,接下来你会面临的问题是,为你工作的员工们,那是他们的饭碗。所以他们总想找到理由把业务继续维持下去。如果你是管理者,这些都是非常艰难的抉择,但这正是为什么企业需要管理者的原因。
P5163:36:31
Greg AbelVice Chairman of Non-Insurance Operations
And Warren, I was just gonna add because you touched on something really important there that effectively, as for example, the utilities and the wildfires. We we can't just become the insurer of last resort, And that we're gonna cover any cost and all costs irrespective of what occurred. And that's a little bit of the situation we're in right now with our largest Challenge of 2020 wildfire where there were one of four or five there were four fires occurring at a a challenging time. One, we've always asserted was a lightning strike that was not inside our service territory. The fire burnt into our service territory, and we became responsible for that fire, effectively through the courts.
沃伦,我刚才正想补充一点,因为你提到了非常关键的一点,那就是以公用事业公司和山火为例,我们实际上不能变成“最后兜底的保险公司”(insurer of last resort),不管发生了什么情况都由我们来承担所有费用。而这在一定程度上正是我们目前在2020年最大规模山火诉讼中所面临的处境:当时在一段非常棘手的时期同时发生了4到5起(实际上是4起)山火。其中一起,我们一直坚称是由我们的服务区域之外的雷击引发的。大火蔓延烧进了我们的服务区域,结果通过法院的裁决,我们实际上成了要为那场火灾负责的人。
P5173:37:19
And we've continued to hold firm that we're not responsible for that. Rightfully, I mean, we didn't contribute to it. And we didn't initiate it nor did we feel we ever contributed to it. But it's getting, again, if you look at the risks that's there, we have to manage through things like that. We'll get through that litigation.
我们一直坚持立场,认为我们不应对那场火负责。理应如此,我的意思是,我们既没有引发火灾,也认为自己从未助长火势。但看看目前存在的风险,我们就必须设法应对这类事情,我们会把这场诉讼打到底。
P5183:37:42
We're happy to report, for example, on that one. After five years, the Oregon forestry department has come out and said the the the fires, the other fires we did have that we were able to manage and extinguish did not contribute to that fire. And that fourth fire is the largest fire of the four. It can it's 60% of the claims. We're five years into effectively getting that information into the courts.
举个例子,关于那起火灾,我们很高兴地向大家报告:时隔5年之后,俄勒冈州林业局终于出面证实,我们辖区内发生的、并且已经被我们成功控制和扑灭的其他火灾,并没有助长那场大火。而那第四场火灾是四起火灾中规模最大的一起,占到了索赔总额的60%。我们花了整整5年时间,才算把这一关键信息有效地呈交到法庭上。
P5193:38:09
Now, that will outline our legal strategy, obviously, going forward, but it's things we're dealing with. But we continue to learn from this as a as a utility So we're in very much each of the legislatures, as I said, making sure we get clear definition where liability falls, what can the economic damages be, but most importantly, what can the non economic damages be? And again, with the thought, we can't be the insurer of last resort. We just can't be responsible for everything that happens in in a state.
显然,这将确立我们接下来的法律诉讼策略,但这就是我们正在应对的事情。作为一家公用事业公司,我们也不断从中吸取教训。正如我所说,我们正在各个州的立法机构积极沟通,确保明确界定责任归属、经济赔偿的上限是多少,以及最重要的一点——非经济赔偿的上限是多少。归根结底还是那个核心原则:我们不能成为最后兜底的保险公司,我们不可能对一个州内发生的所有事情都负全责。
P5203:38:43
Warren BuffettChairman and CEO
Yeah. If we wanna do it with our own money, we we can do it. But we're not gonna we're not gonna do things with your money that we think are stupid. I mean, you ought to get rid of us if if if if we do it. And it's easy to it's easier to do stupid things with other people's money than it is with your own money.
是的。如果我们想拿自己的钱去那么干,我们可以去干。但我们绝不会拿你们的钱去做我们认为愚蠢的事情。如果我们真那么做了,你们就应该把我们赶走。而且,拿别人的钱干蠢事,总比拿自己的钱干蠢事要容易得多。
P5213:39:05
That's one of the problems government has. Just generally, we don't wanna bring it to private enterprise. But it is important that The United States have an intelligent energy policy just as it was important during World War two that we learned how to make ships instead of cars extremely fast. And we figured out the answer. We combined private enterprise with with with with with the power of the of of of of government.
这就是政府面临的问题之一。总的来说,我们不想把这种毛病带到私营企业中来。但美国拥有一项明智的能源政策至关重要,正如在第二次世界大战期间,学会如何以极快的速度把造汽车转为造船至关重要一样。当年我们找到了解决办法,我们把私营企业的活力与政府的力量结合了起来。
P5223:39:42
And but how feasible that is in a in a democracy, and it was clearly obvious during World War what needed to be done, and we did it. But it's not so clear when when you get 330,000,000 people all arguing their own self interest and and of course deciding what will happen and and and having the people often who are making the decisions reacting as they did twenty years earlier, you know, when they don't really bear the responsibility for the decision. Right. Anyway, that's management, and, we'll do our best. Station eleven.
但在民主制度下,这样做究竟有多大的可行性呢?在二战期间,必须做什么是一目了然的,我们也做到了。但当有3.3亿人(330,000,000)都在为各自的自身利益争论不休并决定事情的走向,而且做出决策的人往往还在按照20年前的老思路行事、实际上并不为决策后果承担责任时,事情就没那么清晰了。没错。不管怎样,这就是管理层要面对的课题,我们会尽最大努力。11号提问区。
P5233:40:39
Alitzia BurekShareholder, Shareholder (Chicago)
Hello. My name is Alitzia Burek, and I'm from Poland, but I currently live in Chicago. This question is on behalf of an inspiring man that I know, Walid Ahmed, who's here with us today. Mister Buffett, nearly seventy four years ago, on a cold Saturday in January 1951, you traveled eight hours by train from New York to Washington. You went all the way on nothing but hope that someone might teach you more about the insurance industry.
您好。我叫阿莉齐亚·布雷克(Alitzia Burek),来自波兰,目前住在芝加哥。我是代表我认识的一位令人敬佩的人——今天也来到现场的瓦利德·艾哈迈德(Walid Ahmed)——提出这个问题的。巴菲特先生,将近74年前,在1951年1月的一个寒冷的星期六,您坐了8个小时的火车从纽约赶到华盛顿。您一路奔波,仅仅是怀揣着一线希望,盼望有人能教您更多关于保险行业的知识。
P5243:41:08
Arriving at GEICO's office to find the doors locked, you persisted until a janitor let you inside. You credit that meeting with Lori Mayer Davidson for the insurance float that was the rocket fuel behind Berkshire's success. In 2011, when I was 15, I wrote to you with similar determination asking to meet. You kindly wrote back saying you had only three thousand days left and more pressing priorities. Well, mister Buffett, it's now been five thousand days since you replied.
当您到达政府雇员保险公司(GEICO)办公楼时,发现大门紧锁,但您坚持不懈,直到一位看门人让您进了门。您将那次与洛里默·戴维森(Lorimer Davidson)的会面,归功为让您领悟到保险浮存金奥秘的契机,而保险浮存金正是伯克希尔成功背后的火箭燃料。2011年,当瓦利德15岁时,他怀着同样的决心给您写信请求见面。您亲切地回信说,您只剩下3000天的时间了,还有更紧迫的优先事项要处理。巴菲特先生,自您回信以来,现在已经过去了5000天。
P5253:41:38
And so inspired by your persistence in 1951 and the tenacity of missus B, I humbly renew my request for just a quarter of the time Davey gave you, a single hour in your office. Yeah. Well You may wonder why must it be you? You have often shared an anecdote about Polish Jew who survived Auschwitz, who said to you once, Warren, I'm very slow to make friends because when I look at someone, I ask myself, would they hide me? You said that the number of people would hide you was the best test of life well lived.
因此,受到您在1951年的坚持不懈以及B夫人(罗丝·布卢姆金)坚韧精神的鼓舞,我在此代他谦卑地再次提出请求:哪怕只给他当年戴维(洛里默·戴维森)给您的四分之一时间——在您的办公室里见上短短一个小时。您可能会想,为什么非得是他呢?您曾多次分享过一个关于奥斯威辛集中营幸存的波兰犹太人的故事,他曾对您说:“沃伦,我交朋友非常慢,因为每当我看一个人的时候,我都会问自己,他们会藏匿我吗?”您说过,愿意把你藏起来的人数,是衡量人生是否活得精彩的最好标准。
P5263:42:14
Well, I believe that the at this meeting, you have four you don't have 40,000 shareholders, but you have 40,000 people who would hide you. You are a testament to a life extraordinarily well lived. Yet even you have not fully witnessed this transformative power of a client.
那么,我相信在这次大会上,您拥有的不是40,000名股东,而是40,000名愿意把您藏起来的人。您是极其精彩的人生的明证。然而,即便是您,也还没有完全见证过瓦利德身上那种改变命运的力量。
P5273:42:31
Warren BuffettChairman and CEO
I'll let you write I'll I'll let you write my biography, but I I I think I've got the point of your question.
我可以让你来写我的传记,不过我想我已经明白你的问题是什么了。
P5283:42:37
Alitzia BurekShareholder, Shareholder (Chicago)
So respectfully, I ask again, mister Baffet, before father time wins, will you please grant an hour of your time or any time you can dedicate? Thank you so much for your time.
因此,我怀着敬意再次请求,巴菲特先生,在岁月老人获胜之前,您能否赐予一个小时的时间,或者您能抽出的任何一点时间?非常感谢您的宝贵时间。
P5293:42:51
Warren BuffettChairman and CEO
Thank you. And and I will say this, I grant grant an hour to everybody of the 40,000 here. Well, we'll have an interesting I'll have an interesting time the rest of my life. But I will I will I'll give you one tip. I found that when I was very young and I would I would drive around to various companies all over the country.
谢谢你。我想这么说,如果我给在场的40,000人每人一个小时,那我的余生可就过得太有意思了。不过我可以给你一个建议。我发现,在我非常年轻的时候,我会开车去全国各地拜访各种各样的公司。
P5303:43:20
And because I was very young and these were companies were off beat and they didn't have investor relations departments then. Almost every CEO would see me because they figured I never they never see me again. And and they didn't they weren't getting calls like that. And I would ask them two questions. I would I would explain to them, it's not a bad idea incidentally.
因为那时候我非常年轻,而且那些公司都比较冷门,当时也没有投资者关系部门。几乎每一位首席执行官都会见我,因为他们觉得以后再也不会见到我了,而且他们平时也不会接到那样的拜访电话。我会问他们两个问题。顺便说一句,我当时向他们解释的办法其实是个挺不错的主意。
P5313:43:51
If you're gonna walk into somebody's office and you say you want ten minutes of their time, take a hourglass and stick it on the on the desk of the person you're talking to and turn it up so that it's gonna go for ten minutes and you say you're gonna get you're gonna leave in ten minutes unless they ask you to stay. And that sets the terms. But then once you have that, you if if they're in the coal business, we'll say, which happened to be one that I was interested in seventy years ago or so. He just asked them one question that if they were to be stuck on a desert island and they had to own only one of their competitors stock during the ten years they were gonna be on that island. Which one would it be and why?
如果你走进某人的办公室,说你想要占用他们10分钟的时间,你可以带一个沙漏,把它放在交谈对象的办公桌上并倒过来,让它计时10分钟,然后告诉对方:除非他们挽留你,否则10分钟一到你就会离开。这就定下了规矩。一旦定下这个前提,假如他们是做煤炭生意的——这恰好是我大约70年前感兴趣的一个行业——你只需要问他们一个问题:如果他们被困在一个荒岛上10年,在此期间只能持有一家竞争对手的股票,他们会选哪一家,为什么?
P5323:44:45
And then after they give you that answer, you said the same thing. You're gonna short your net worth while you were on that audit, which would it be and why? Because every manager likes to talk about their competitors. They're they're they're like a bunch of school kids, you know, when they when they get into talking about their competitors. I probably learned more about various industries by just making sure that they didn't think I'd stay too long and that in the meantime they would have the floor and talk about their competitors.
等他们回答完这个问题后,你再问同样的问题:如果在这10年里你要倾尽全部身家去做空一家竞争对手,你会选哪一家,为什么?因为每一位企业管理者都喜欢谈论自己的竞争对手。一旦聊起竞争对手,他们就像一群小学生一样滔滔不绝。我当年通过这种方式——确保他们觉得我不会待太久,同时把话语权交给他们去谈论竞争对手——学到的各行各业的知识,可能比任何其他途径都多。
P5333:45:17
I kept my own mouth shut in those days. That's that's a lesson I've lost somewhere along the line. But the you're you're not you're you're you're essentially they've outsourced. Or I shouldn't say outsourced, but they've they've they've departmentalized investor relations of all companies of size practically now. So you've got, you know, 3,000 companies or whatever they have, and they all have departments.
那时候我懂得闭紧自己的嘴巴,可惜这个好习惯后来不知怎么被我弄丢了。但现在的情况是,如今几乎所有上规模的公司都把投资者关系工作外包了——或者我不该说外包,而是专门设立了部门。所以现在有大约3,000家公司,几乎每家都设有专门的部门。
P5343:45:48
And each one of them has an investor relations department practically. And their job is to say this is the best thing you can do today is buy our stock. Well, that's the whole concept is totally idiocy. But it's a big business and it gets bigger and the investor relations department gets bigger and and, you know, and and get it's what we have now. But do a little of your own work, own way.
几乎每一家公司都有一个投资者关系部,他们的工作就是告诉你:“你今天能做的最棒的事情就是买我们的股票。”嗯,这种理念完全是胡扯。但这成了一门大生意,而且规模越来越大,投资者关系部门也越来越庞大,这就是我们如今面对的现状。所以,用你自己的方式去做一点独立的研究吧。
P5353:46:16
But Berkshire Hathaway has got plenty of material out there for you to read. And when you get through reading it all, you'll know way more than most of the people that work at Berkshire. So you don't need a personal interview. If we take it if we take an hour times, even the 40,000 people we may have here, plus Becky's many of the listeners and viewers. It just doesn't work.
至于伯克希尔·哈撒韦,外面已经有海量的公开资料供你阅读了。当你把这些资料全部读完之后,你对伯克希尔的了解程度将会远远超过在伯克希尔工作的大多数员工。所以你并不需要一次单独的会面。如果我们给每个人一小时,哪怕只是在场的40,000人,再加上贝基节目里的众多听众和观众,这在算术上是根本行不通的。
P5363:46:48
I admire I admire your effort, but but but you'll just have to settle for that as the admiration that you get in this. Okay. Becky?
我非常钦佩你的努力,但在这件事上,你只能接受我的这份钦佩了。好的,贝基?
P5373:47:06
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
This is a question that you've touched on in a lot of ways in the last answer, from before, but I did get this question from a few different people, so I'd like to ask it. Ricardo Briz, a longtime shareholder based in Panama, says that he was very happy to see Berkshire acquire a % of BHE. It was done in two steps. One, in late twenty twenty two, '1 percent was purchased from Greg Abel for $870,000,000, implying evaluation of BHE of $87,000,000,000. And then two in 2024, the remaining 8% was purchased from the family of Walter Scott junior for $3,900,000,000, implying a valuation of $48,800,000,000 for the enterprise.
这个问题在很大程度上您刚才的回答已经涉及到了,但因为有好几位听众都提了这个问题,所以我还是想问一下。常驻巴拿马的长期股东里卡多·布里斯(Ricardo Briz)表示,他非常高兴看到伯克希尔收购了伯克希尔·哈撒韦能源公司(BHE)100%的股权。这分两步完成:第一步是在2022年底,以8.7亿美元(870,000,000)从格雷格·阿贝尔手中收购了1%的股权,隐含对BHE的估值为870亿美元(87,000,000,000);第二步是在2024年,以39亿美元(3,900,000,000)从小沃尔特·斯科特(Walter Scott Jr.)家族手中收购了剩余8%的股权,隐含该企业的估值为488亿美元(48,800,000,000)。
P5383:47:52
That second larger transaction represented a 44% reduction in valuation in just two years. Ricardo writes that Pacific Corp liabilities seem too small to explain this. Therefore, what factors contributed to the difference in value for BHE between those two moments in time?
这第二笔规模更大的交易意味着在短短两年内估值下降了44%。里卡多写道,太平洋电力公司(PacifiCorp)的赔偿责任似乎太小,不足以解释如此大的跌幅。因此,在这两个时间点之间,究竟是什么因素导致了BHE价值的巨大差异?
P5393:48:09
Warren BuffettChairman and CEO
Well, we don't know how much we'll lose out of Pacific Corp and decisions that are made, but we also know that that certain of the attitudes demonstrated by that particular example have got analogs throughout the utility system and and we there's a lot there's a lot of states that that so far have been very good, decent to operate in. And there are some now that are rat poison, as Charlie would say, to operate in. And that knowledge was was accentuated when we saw what happened in the Pacific Northwest, and it's accentuated by what we've seen as to how utilities have been treated in certain other situations. And then on top of that so that it wasn't just a direct question of what was involved at Pacific Corp. It was an extrapolation of of a societal trend.
嗯,我们还不知道最终会在太平洋电力公司以及相关的裁决中损失多少钱,但我们也清楚,那个具体案例所体现出的某些态度,在整个公用事业体系中都有类似的现象。目前仍有很多州的经营环境非常好、非常公平合理,但现在也有一些州,用查理的话说,去那里经营简直就像吞“老鼠药”一样。当我们看到太平洋西北地区发生的事情时,这种认识进一步加深了;而看到公用事业公司在其他一些情况下的遭遇,更是强化了这一判断。此外,这不仅仅是太平洋电力公司本身涉及的直接损失问题,更是对一种社会趋势的推演。
P5403:49:19
And secondly, we also had a decision we didn't expect out of all the real estate business and and and those kind of things can change values and courts can change values. And it's a lot easier to make those decisions when you just own marketable securities and when you own businesses. And I've made plenty of those decisions as I watch what have happened in various industries and companies in over seventy years. But Greg made the decision, which was fine with us to get out. Well, and he had no knowledge of what was going to be happening in either the real estate field or the utility field.
其次,我们在房地产经纪业务上也遇到了一个始料未及的裁决,这类事情会改变企业的价值,法院的判决也会改变企业的价值。当你只是持有公开交易的有价证券时,做决定要比你全资拥有整个企业容易得多。在过去70多年里,我观察各行各业和各家公司的变迁,做过无数这样的决定。当时格雷格做出了退出的决定,我们完全赞成,而且他当时对房地产领域或公用事业领域即将发生的事情毫不知情。
P5413:50:10
And we wouldn't we don't we're not in the mood to sell any business, Berkshire Hathaway Energy is worth considerably less money than it was two years ago based on societal factors. And that happens in some of our businesses. It certainly happened in our textile business and it's it's happened. It's the public utility business is not as good a business as it was a couple years ago. And if anybody doesn't believe that, they can look at Hawaiian Electric and they can look at Edison in the current wildfires situation in California.
我们并没有出售任何业务的打算,但基于社会环境因素,伯克希尔·哈撒韦能源公司(BHE)现在的价值确实比两年前低了很多。在我们旗下的某些业务中会发生这种情况,当年的纺织业务显然就是如此,现在也发生了。公用事业行业已经不如两年前那么好了。如果有人不信,可以去看看夏威夷电力公司(Hawaiian Electric),也可以去看看目前加州山火局势中的爱迪生国际(Edison)。
P5423:50:53
And there's societal trends that are oh, I just got a note here on my monitor. It says the books are now sold out, so Go ahead. You'll have to spend your money on other things. Here's fudge. This is what I'm eating, so But that's the explanation.
有些社会趋势正在发生——哦,我面前的显示器上刚刚弹出一张字条,上面说书已经全部卖光了。好的,你们得把钱花在别的地方了。这里有软糖,我正吃着呢。但这正是刚才那个问题的解释。
P5433:51:15
Values change and they don't always change upward. And when we made the deal with with Greg, we would have we're happy to buy out Scott Family at that price. And when we made a deal with the Scott Company, we wouldn't have been happy to pay Greg the price that he received. But that that's like Berkshire shares. We bought in stock at x, and we buy in stock at less than x.
价值是会变化的,而且并不总是向上变化。当我们和格雷格达成交易时,我们很乐意按那个价格买下斯科特家族手中的股份;而当我们和斯科特家族达成交易时,我们可不会乐意按格雷格当年拿到的价格去付款。但这就像伯克希尔的股票一样:我们曾在X的价格回购股票,也会在低于X的价格回购股票。
P5443:51:42
If if if conditions change poor and we pay over the years, we pay more and more because it builds in value, but it doesn't do it in a straight line. And I would say that our enthusiasm for buying public utility companies is different than it would be would have been a couple years ago. That happens in other industries too. But it's pretty dramatic in public utilities, and it's particularly dramatic in public utilities because they are going to need lots of money. So if you're going to need lots of money, you probably ought to behave in a way that encourages people to give you lots of money and and we will see where we go.
如果环境恶化,价格就会下降;而随着岁月推移,我们支付的价格会越来越高,因为内在价值在不断积累,但它并不是沿着一条直线增长的。我想说,我们现在对收购公用事业公司的热情,与两年前相比已经大不相同了。其他行业也会发生这种变化,但在公用事业领域尤为剧烈;之所以在公用事业领域格外剧烈,是因为这个行业未来需要海量的资金。既然你需要海量的资金,你或许就应该表现出一种能够鼓励人们把海量资金投入给你的行事方式,且让我们拭目以待未来的走向吧。
P5453:52:31
We'd like to see public utilities do well, but we our responsibilities to the shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway. Okay. Station station one again.
我们希望看到公用事业行业蓬勃发展,但我们的首要责任是对伯克希尔·哈撒韦的股东负责。好的,再次回到1号提问区。
P5463:52:52
Brevi PanidaShareholder, Shareholder (Albania)
Dear Warren, dear Greg, and dear fellow owners, it's such a pleasure to be here. My name is Brevi Panida. I was born in Komnis, Albania, but I'm now teaching economics in London, England. The wonderful writing of Warren and Charlie has significantly shaped my thinking and teaching. I thank you both very much for the many insights over the years.
亲爱的沃伦、亲爱的格雷格以及各位股东伙伴,非常荣幸来到这里。我叫布雷维·帕尼达(Brevi Panida),出生于阿尔巴尼亚的共产主义时期,目前在英国伦敦教授经济学。沃伦和查理精彩的著作深刻地塑造了我的思维方式和教学工作。非常感谢你们二位多年来带来的诸多深刻洞见。
P5473:53:14
Warren has often written about the importance of Berkshire's earning power to owners. My question is, what was in your estimate Berkshire's earning power in the latest fiscal year? It would be great if you can comment on any significant items that either increased or decreased the earning power as compared to reported net income measures for Berkshire. Thank you.
沃伦经常在信中写到伯克希尔的“盈利能力”(earning power)对股东的重要性。我的问题是:据您估计,伯克希尔在最近一个财年的盈利能力是多少?如果能请您谈谈与伯克希尔报告的净利润指标相比,有哪些重大项目增加或减少了这一盈利能力,那就太好了。谢谢。
P5483:53:36
Warren BuffettChairman and CEO
Yeah. Well, I think our underlying earning power was affected negatively here a while back by what happened in the utility field. Think that our earning power was not not enlarged by any large acquisitions that come along, but they come along periodically. So we will see something at some point that that well, could be, you know, on the one that was 10,000,000,000, we would have added the earning power. I mean, why else would we do it?
是的。嗯,我认为前段时间公用事业领域发生的事情,对我们的潜在盈利能力产生了负面影响。同时,我们的盈利能力并没有因为出现任何大型收购而得到扩充,不过这类收购机会是周期性出现的。所以我们在未来的某个时点总会看到一些机会,比如之前那个100亿美元(10,000,000,000)的项目,如果做成了就会增加我们的盈利能力——不然我们为什么要去做呢?
P5493:54:11
So that's that's very situational. And of course, it depends so much on what the general market is doing and what interest rates are doing and what psychology is doing. We will make our best deals when people are the most pessimistic. You know, that's been true ever since I was nineteen thirty. Yeah.
所以这是非常看具体时机和情境的。当然,这在很大程度上取决于整体市场的走势、利率的走势以及市场心理的变化。当人们最悲观的时候,我们会做成最划算的交易。自从我1930年出生以来,这一直都是千真万确的。是的。
P5503:54:37
Born in 1930. When I was born, things got much more attractive over the next two years, and apparently, didn't do anything about it there. But, you know, that was the opportunity of a lifetime and and I blew it by, you know, worrying about the kid in the next crib or something. But over my lifetime, you know, I've had fabulous opportunities sometimes. And and they happen because humans are human.
我出生于1930年。在我出生后的两年里,市场估值变得极其诱人,但显然我当时对此无动于衷。那是千载难逢的机会,结果我却把它错过了,当时大概正忙着操心隔壁婴儿床里的小孩之类的事情吧。但在我的一生中,有些时候确实遇到过绝佳的机会。而这些机会之所以出现,是因为人终究是人。
P5513:55:15
And I don't, you know, I'm fearful of all kinds of things. I don't wanna try and, you know, be one of the Walundas and walk on a tiny strip between a couple of twin towers or something or whatever it may be. But I don't get I I I just I I don't get fearful by things that that other people get are afraid of in in in the financial in a financial way. And, you know, the idea that if Berkshire went let's say Berkshire went down 50% next week, I would regard that as a fantastic opportunity and and it wouldn't bother me in the least. And and most people aren't.
在日常生活中,我也害怕各种各样的事情。比如我可不想像瓦伦达家族(Wallendas)那样,在两座双子塔之间的细钢丝上走高空绳索之类的。但对于其他人在金融市场上感到恐惧的事情,我却从来不会感到害怕。打个比方,如果伯克希尔的股价下周下跌50%,我会把那视为一个绝佳的机会,而且丝毫不会为此感到困扰。但大多数人不是这样的。
P5523:56:03
They just react differently. And so it doesn't it's not that I don't have emotions, but I don't have emotions about the prices of stocks. I mean, I actually those decisions get all the way to my brain, whereas emotions can get bogged down some other place. So Berkshire will increase its earning power over time as we retain money. I mean, we we are doing things, making decisions every day.
他们的反应就是不一样。这并不是说我没有情绪,而是我对股票价格的涨跌没有情绪波动。我的意思是,这类投资决策会一路直达我的大脑理性中枢,而情绪则会被挡在别的地方。因此,随着我们不断留存收益,伯克希尔的盈利能力将随着时间的推移而增长。我们每天都在开展业务、做出决策。
P5533:56:38
People are working or retaining earnings. We we will build the earning power, but it won't be coming in any even stream, and it certainly won't be matched dollar for dollar on either the upside or the downside and market prices. But that's what makes it a good business. You know, the investment business is that everything isn't properly appraised. And and the subtler your other people get, the better your opportunities get.
员工们在努力工作,公司也在留存收益。我们将不断建立并扩大盈利能力,但它不会以平稳均匀的速度到来,而且无论是上涨还是下跌,它也绝对不会与市场价格一分一毫地同步匹配。但这恰恰是投资成为一门好生意的原因。你知道,投资这门生意的本质就在于并非所有事物都能在当下得到准确的定价。其他人表现得越愚蠢,你的机会就会越好。
P5543:57:10
Okay. Becky?
好的,贝基?
P5553:57:15
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
This question comes from Achit Patel, and it's about the big cap technology stocks. In the two thousand seventeen annual meeting, you said, Warren, you really don't need any money to run these companies and referred to them as ideal businesses, referring to the big tech companies, Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Amazon. With all of those companies now announcing massive capital investment endeavors in a around AI ambitions, Have you rethought the above comment just in terms of them being asset light and what you think of them as a result?
这个问题来自阿奇特·帕特尔(Achit Patel),是关于大型科技股的。在2017年的股东大会上,沃伦,您曾说过运营这些公司其实不需要投入什么资金,并将它们称为“理想的生意”,当时您指的是苹果、Alphabet(谷歌母公司)、微软和亚马逊这些大型科技公司。如今,随着所有这些公司都围绕人工智能(AI)的雄心宣布了大规模的资本投资计划,仅就它们“轻资产”这一特性而言,您是否重新思考了上述评价?由此您现在对它们又有什么看法?
P5563:57:50
Warren BuffettChairman and CEO
Well, it's always better to make a lot of money with without putting up anything, than it is to make a lot of money by putting up a lot of money. And so a business that takes no capital to speak of. Coca Cola, it the finished product, which has gone through bottling companies and everything, that takes a lot of capital. But in terms of the selling the syrup or the concentrate that goes to it, it doesn't take a lot of capital. So one is a fabulous business and one is a yeah.
嗯,不用投入什么本钱就能赚大钱,永远比必须投入巨额资金才能赚大钱要好得多。所以,一门几乎不需要什么资本的生意是非常美妙的。以可口可乐为例,它的最终成品需要经过装瓶厂等各个环节,那需要消耗大量的资本;但就向装瓶厂销售糖浆或浓缩液的业务而言,并不需要太多的资本。所以其中一个是绝佳的生意,而另一个则是——是的。
P5573:58:29
It depends where it is and everything like that. Cocoa is popular every place. But some places that I mean, if you're in the bottling business, it costs real money. You have real trucks out there and you have all kinds of machinery and and and you have capital expenditures coming up. And, you know, we've got businesses that take very little capital, that make high re really high returns on capital.
这取决于业务处在哪个环节等等。可口可乐在任何地方都很受欢迎,但在某些环节,比如如果你做的是装瓶业务,那就需要真金白银的巨大投入。你在外面要有实打实的卡车车队,要有各种各样的机器设备,还要面对接踵而至的资本开支。你知道,我们旗下有一些只需要极少资本、却能产生极高资本回报率的业务。
P5583:58:55
And and the ones the politicians talk about as making high returns actually aren't making high returns usually in terms of capital. Insurance, property casualty insurance is kind of a rare business because you need capital as a guarantee fund that you will keep your promises. But you can use it to buy other low intensive capital business. I mean, you can even buy a whole you can buy Apple and that would support that business. So that can be a pretty good business and it's one of the reasons we've done well over time.
而政客们口中常说的那些赚取暴利的企业,如果按投入资本来衡量,实际上往往并没有赚取多高的回报。保险业——特别是财产与意外险业务——是一种比较特殊的生意,因为你需要资本作为担保基金,以确保你能兑现赔付承诺。但你可以利用这笔资金去购买其他低资本密集型的企业。比如你甚至可以去买苹果公司的股票,用它来支撑保险业务。所以这可以成为一门相当不错的生意,也是我们长期以来表现良好的原因之一。
P5593:59:38
But the well, it'll be interesting to see how much capital intensity there certainly, there's more capital intensity going on with the Magnificent Seven than there were was a few years ago. I mean, basically Apple has not really needed any any capital over the years and it's repurchased shares that that dramatic amount of reduction. Whether that world is the same in the future or not is something. Hollywood's answer was always to get their their money from other people to put up the capital. It's it's it a lot of people have gotten very rich in the country by essentially figuring out how how get others put up the capital.
至于未来的资本密集度会如何演变,这将会非常耐人寻味。可以肯定的是,与几年前相比,如今“科技七巨头”(Magnificent Seven)的资本密集度确实明显上升了。我的意思是,苹果公司多年来基本上不需要投入什么额外资本,而且通过回购股票大幅减少了总股本。未来的世界是否依然如此,还有待观察。好莱坞的做法向来是让别人掏钱来出资本。在这个国家,很多人都通过想方设法让别人出资本而变得非常富有。
P5604:00:36
And that's what people do in the in the money management business, and they get very, very rich because they they get an override on other people's capital. And incidentally, all of you were paying 1% for investment management fees at Bircher last year, would have paid $8,000,000,000 for managing and you really wouldn't have had to do it. But, you know, investment management is a very good game because other people put up the capital and you you charge them for the capital, whether they do well or not, and then you can charge them a lot more if they do well. I mean, it's it it it's a it's a well designed business for the people who practice it. And who can blame them.
而这正是资产管理行业的人们所做的事情,他们变得极其富有,因为他们可以从别人的资本中抽取提成(override)。顺便说一句,如果去年你们所有人都按1%的费率向伯克希尔支付投资管理费,那么你们去年就得支付80亿美元(8,000,000,000)的管理费,而实际上你们根本不需要付这笔钱。但你知道,投资管理是一门非常划算的生意,因为是别人出资本,不管业绩好坏你都要按资本规模向他们收费,而如果业绩做得好,你还能向他们收取高得多的费用。我的意思是,对于从业者来说,这是一门设计得极其精妙的生意。而且谁又能责怪他们呢?
P5614:01:34
I mean, that's that is capitalism. But and I I saw that in operation when I was working at Sullivan, but I didn't need to see it. I I knew what existed anyway. The trick in life is to get somebody else's capital and get an override on it. Charlie and I decided it wasn't too elegant in business after a while, but we we weren't we were not criticizing the efficacy of it.
我的意思是,这就是资本主义。当年我在所罗门兄弟公司(Salomon Brothers)工作时就亲眼目睹了这种模式的运作,不过其实我根本不需要亲眼看到,我早就知道它的存在了。发财的诀窍就在于拿到别人的资本,然后从中抽成。查理和我干了一段时间后觉得这种商业模式不够体面,但我们并不是在批评它的赚钱效力。
P5624:02:05
We were just it just didn't appeal to us after a while. I did it for twelve years though or something like not really. The the one difference that Charlie and I did from other people is we put all our own money in and do it. So so we really we did share the losses in with our own capital, but we got an override on other people's capital. And that's been people have made advances where they get the override on other people's capital without putting up any of their own capital to speak of.
只是过了一段时间后,它对我们不再有吸引力了。不过我也那样干了大概12年。其实也不完全一样,查理和我与其他人唯一的不同之处在于,我们把自己所有的钱也都投了进去。所以我们确实用自己的资本共同分担了亏损风险,但我们也确实从别人的资本中获得了业绩提成。而后来人们更是变本加厉,发展到了几乎不用投入任何自己的资本,就能从别人的资本中抽取提成的地步。
P5634:02:38
And that's that's a very good business, but it it it leads it it can lead to a lot of abuse. Greg, you've watched capital management in United States and would you say that Canada's behind your head or her in this respect? Well,
这是一门非常赚钱的生意,但它会导致大量的滥用行为。格雷格,你一直观察美国的资本管理行业,你觉得在这方面加拿大是落后于美国还是领先于美国?
P5644:03:04
Greg AbelVice Chairman of Non-Insurance Operations
I think when it comes to their capital system, Warren, it it it is very comparable. There's no question. Other than as as we know, I mean, I think The US, as far as having a capitalist system, it would it would be tough to be touched by any country. And I think when I think of Canada, there's just certain responsibilities or the or obligations that the government wants to take on and aren't going to leave with the public sector. And that's just a a decision that's made by society or by the by the Canadian people or if you look at another country, Australia, wherever it may be.
嗯,我认为就资本体系而言,沃伦,两国是非常相似的,这一点毫无疑问。只不过正如我们所知,就资本主义制度的发达程度而言,几乎没有任何国家能与美国相提并论。而当我想到加拿大时,政府会希望自己承担起某些特定的责任或义务,而不是将其完全交给私营部门。这只是社会或加拿大人民做出的选择,如果你看其他国家,比如澳大利亚或其他地方,也是如此。
P5654:03:43
But so there's it's different. But when you think when I think of capitalism, that that drive is there and and and and the desire to, you know, allocate capital properly. It's very similar. It it's produced wonders
所以确实存在差异。但当我想到资本主义时,那种内在的驱动力是同样存在的,妥善配置资本的愿望也是非常相似的。
P5664:04:00
Warren BuffettChairman and CEO
in The United States if you think about it. But, originally, with the Rockefeller's and Kennedy and and Carnegie's and all that, they actually put up money to build steel mill, you know, whatever it may have been with Rockefeller refineries and pipelines and all that sort of thing. They put up money to do it. Now, the trick is to use other people's money, basically. And and and, you know, you can't you can't blame human beings for behaving like humans, but you should be aware of what their motivations are.
如果你仔细想想,资本主义在美国创造了奇迹。但最初的时候,像洛克菲勒、卡内基等人,他们是真金白银地掏钱去建钢铁厂,或者像洛克菲勒那样掏钱去建炼油厂和输油管道等等。他们是自己出资去干的。而现在的诀窍基本上变成了如何利用别人的钱。你不能责怪人类表现出符合人性的行为,但你应该清醒地认识到他们的动机是什么。
P5674:04:45
It's a capitalism in The United States has succeeded like nothing you've ever seen, but it has what it is is it's a combination of this magnificent cathedral, which has produced an economy like nothing the world's ever seen. And then it's got this massive casino attached. So you got the cathedral and the casino. And in the casino, everybody's having a good time and there's lots of money changing hands and everything, but the cathedral is what gotta make sure the cathedral gets gets fed too because the temptation, and the temptation is very high now, is to go over to the casino where people say, you know, we've got magic boxes and all kinds of things that will do wonderful things for you. And that's where people are happiest.
美国的资本主义取得了前所未有的成功,但它的本质是:一座宏伟的大教堂——它创造出了世界历史上前所未见的强大经济体——同时旁边还附带着一座巨大的赌场。所以你同时拥有大教堂和赌场。在赌场里,每个人都玩得很开心,有海量的金钱在频繁易手;但你必须确保那座大教堂也能得到滋养,因为现在的诱惑非常大,人们总是禁不住诱惑跑去赌场,在那里有人会对你说:“瞧,我们有神奇的魔盒,还有各种能为你带来美妙回报的东西。”那是让人们最兴奋的地方。
P5684:05:30
That's where you get the most promise to you. That's where the most money is for the people that are pushing things. And, you know, the balance between the capital the casino and the and the cathedral are it's very important that that The United States in the next hundred years make sure that the cathedral is not overtaken by the casino. Because people really like to go to casinos. And it's just so much more fun and they they bring bells and when you win and, you know, they they bring you drinks and everything else.
那里会给你许下最诱人的承诺,而对于那些兜售产品的人来说,那里也是最来钱的地方。你知道,在赌场与大教堂之间保持平衡至关重要:在未来的100年里,美国必须确保大教堂不会被赌场吞噬。因为人们真的非常喜欢去赌场,那里好玩太多了——当你赢钱的时候会铃声大作,他们还会给你端来美酒等等。
P5694:06:07
And it's it's designed to move money from one pocket to another. But and and the cathedrals, they basically are designing things that will be reproducing goods and services for 300 and some million people like it's never been done before in in in history. It's an interesting system we've developed, but it's worked. It it it dispenses rewards in what seems like a terribly capricious manner. I mean, the idea that people get what they deserve in life.
赌场的设计初衷就是把钱从一个人的口袋转移到另一个人的口袋。而大教堂呢,它基本上是在设计和生产商品与服务,去满足3亿多(300多百万)人口的需求,其规模和效率在人类历史上前所未有。我们发展出的这套制度非常耐人寻味,而且它确实行之有效。只不过,它在分配奖赏时,方式看起来极其任性无常。我的意思是,那种认为“人们在生活中得到的都是自己应得的”的想法——
P5704:06:51
And it's it's hard to make that argument. But if you argue with any other system where it seems to work better, the answer is we haven't found one. So I'll leave it to the next generation to send me the answer and my Ouija board or whatever. Station two.
你很难去为那种观点辩护。但如果你要争辩说还有哪种其他制度似乎运作得更好,答案是我们至今还没有找到。所以我把这个问题的答案留给下一代人,到时候通过通灵板(Ouija board)或者随便什么方式传给我吧。2号提问区。
P5714:07:20
Patrick NestorShareholder, Shareholder (Florida)
Hi. My name is Patrick Nestor. I'm 13 years old and from Tampa, Florida. I'm here with my brother John, who's 15, and my dad. Thank you for hosting this meeting.
大家好。我叫帕特里克·内斯托(Patrick Nestor),今年 13 岁,来自佛罗里达州坦帕市。今天我和 15 岁的哥哥约翰(John)还有我爸爸一起来参会。感谢你们举办这次股东大会。
P5724:07:32
This is my first ever shareholder meeting. My question is what high school class or activity helped influence you to who you are today as the greatest invest of investor of all time?
这是我人生中第一次参加股东大会。我的问题是:高中的哪门课程或哪项课外活动影响了你,让你成长为今天这位有史以来最伟大的投资者?
P5734:07:47
Warren BuffettChairman and CEO
Well, that's good question. The the teachers you get in your life have this incredible impression and on you and and a lot of it are the formal teachers you have, but some are informal teachers too. I mean, learned from certain employers, you know, so much. You really hope you're learning from everybody you find who's well intentioned and has had a lot of experience and I had a lot of good luck in that. But I would I would say that what what what what what what I was really lucky was my dad was in the investment business.
嗯,这个问题问得很好。人生中遇到的老师会在你身上留下极其深刻的烙印,其中很多是学校里的正式老师,但也有一些是生活中的非正式老师。我是说,我从某些雇主身上也学到了太多东西。你真的很希望能向身边每一个心怀善意、经验丰富的人学习,在这方面我非常幸运。但要说我真正最幸运的地方,那就是我父亲当时就从事投资行业。
P5744:08:34
So I would go down on Saturday and I'd wait for him to go on lunch with, and I'd read the books that were around there that nobody else ever read. And and they just they talked to me. Numbers talked to me. And I could never get my fill of them and then I discovered the public library and I read every book there was on investments, literally, in the Omaha Public Library at Nineteenth At Harney. And, you know, I I enjoyed learning about that.
所以我每逢周六都会去他办公室,等他一起去吃午饭,在等待的时候我就读办公室里那些根本没人翻阅的书。那些书仿佛在对我说话,里面的数字也在对我说话。我怎么读都读不够;后来我又发现了公共图书馆,把位于哈尼街与第19街交口(Nineteenth at Harney)的奥马哈公共图书馆里所有关于投资的书完完全全读了个遍。我非常享受学习这些知识的过程。
P5754:09:11
And unlike Charlie, if Charlie was reading about electricity, he would want to know on everything that Thomas Edison knew and more. And and that goes with the same thought process and understand how everything worked. I didn't care whether how it worked. I just cared whether it worked. And that's a limitation.
我和查理不同——如果查理读到关于电学的书,他会想要搞懂托马斯·爱迪生所知道的一切甚至更多,顺着同样的思维过程去弄明白每样东西到底是怎么运作的。而我并不关心它背后的原理是怎么运作的,我只关心它管不管用。这是我的一个局限。
P5764:09:31
I'm I'm I'm confessing here. I'm not bragging. But, you know, the as as Charlie would say, I mean, people would always say if you could only have lunch with one person living or dead, who would it be? And Charlie said, I've already had lunch with all of them because I've read all their books, you know, basically. And and so and he really did it.
我这是在坦白自己的不足,可不是在炫耀。不过就像查理常说的——人们总爱问:如果你只能和一位在世或已故的人共进午餐,你会选谁?查理说:我基本上已经和他们所有人吃过午饭了,因为我已经读遍了他们所有的书。他确实是这么做的。
P5774:09:55
I think having curiosity and and actually finding sympathetic teachers is very useful. I I ran into a couple of teachers that both in high school and college. In fact, I would say that I went to three different higher, know, three different universities. And I went to high school in Washington and at each place, I found about two or three really outstanding people. And and I just spent my time with them and didn't pay much attention to the other classes.
我认为保持好奇心,并且找到投缘、愿意倾听和理解你的老师非常有用。我在高中和大学阶段都遇到过几位这样的好老师。事实上,我先后上过三所不同的大学,还在华盛顿读过高中,在每一个地方我都找到了两三位真正杰出的老师。我就把时间花在向他们请教上,对其余的课则没怎么放中心思。
P5784:10:36
And and I was lucky to find something that that really fit me very early on. If my ambition had been to become a ventriloquist or, you know, whatever the hell it might have been, then it wouldn't work. You know, I'd have been I just spent hours and hours and hours and I wouldn't have been any good when I got through. So I don't believe that. I I think there was that book that talked about spending ten thousand hours at something.
而且我很幸运,在很早的时候就找到了真正适合自己的事情。如果我当年的抱负是成为一名腹语表演者或者诸如此类的行当,那是绝对行不通的。就算我投入一个又一个小时苦练,最后练出来也还是会一塌糊涂。所以我不信那套说法——我记得有本书讲过做什么事只要花上一万个小时就能成功。
P5794:11:05
I could spend ten thousand hours at tap dancing and and and you'd throw up if you watched me, you know. But but if I spent if I spent up ten hours reading Ben Graham, I would I would be damn smart when I got through. So mines are really, really different. I watch great bridge players and I watch great physicians, great I mean, people really, really, really have different talents. And, you know, I don't know.
就算我花上一万个小时练习踢踏舞,你看我跳完也只会想吐。但如果我花上十个小时研读本·格雷厄姆(Ben Graham)的书,读完之后我就会变得非常精明。每个人的大脑构造真的截然不同。我观察过顶尖的桥牌选手,也观察过优秀的医生——人们各自拥有的天赋真的大不相同。
P5804:11:39
I think you're supposed to have 88,000,000,000 cells in your brain. I'm not sure that all of mine are flashing bright lights, but but you are different than anybody else. That's what my dad always used to tell me that essentially that, you know, you're something different. It may not be good at the moment, but but you you find your own you find your own path And you will you will find the people in schooling that that wanna talk to you, people to teach in general. They love having a young student who's actually really interested in the subject, and they'll spend extra time with you.
我想人的大脑里大概有 880 亿个脑细胞。我不确定自己的所有脑细胞是不是都在闪闪发光,但你和世界上其他任何人都是不一样的。这正是我父亲以前常常告诉我的话:从本质上讲,你是独一无二的。哪怕眼下看着还不算突出,但你要找到属于自己的道路。在求学过程中,你会遇到愿意和你交流、热爱教学的老师。老师们总是非常喜欢真正对这门学科感兴趣的年轻学生,也愿意为你付出额外的时间。
P5814:12:30
They'll do all kinds of things that and I I ran into that. And Graham and Dodd at at Columbia. Well, Dave Dodd treated me like a son, basically. And but I was interested excuse me. I was interested in what they were saying, and and they found it kind of entertaining.
他们会为你做各种各样的事,我自己就亲身遇到过这样的老师。比如在哥伦比亚大学遇到的格雷厄姆(Graham)和多德(Dodd)。戴夫·多德(Dave Dodd)基本上把我当亲生儿子一样看待。那是因为我对他们讲的东西真心感兴趣,而他们也觉得有这样一个学生很有意思。
P5824:12:54
And then I was so interested. So I would just I would I would I would look around and do you you know, what really fascinates you, I wouldn't try and be somebody else. And then I would you'll you'll find the teachers at a school, and and you'll find some outstanding people that are are teachers. I've I've had at least 10 people that have had huge impacts on my life. And every one of them was positive, you know, because I got to select in a sense and and and a number of people really like helping younger people.
当时我是如此着迷。所以我的建议是:多去观察和探索真正让你着迷的事物,不要试图去成为别人。然后在学校里去寻找良师,你一定能遇到一些非常杰出的老师。在我一生中,至少有 10 个人对我产生了巨大的影响,而且无一例外都是正面的影响——因为在某种意义上是我自己主动选择了向他们靠近,而且很多前辈也真的很乐意提携年轻人。
P5834:13:40
You know, I've I've found that in school. And probably it helps to look a little bit lost at all. You need help. But I would say my school experiences were good, but were really very good. But I attribute it much more to the individual than to the institutions.
这是我在求学时的切身体会。有时候表现出一副稍微有点迷茫、需要指点的样子或许也有帮助。总的来说,我的求学经历非常好,真的非常棒;但我认为这更多要归功于遇到的那些具体的良师,而不是学校机构本身。
P5844:14:10
Okay. I've already told you more than I know, so we'll go on to. Becky, you're next.
好了,我说的已经超出我知道的了,我们继续往下走。贝基,下一个归你。
P5854:14:19
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
This question comes from Scott Williams in Portland, Oregon. He said, do you think the net benefit of Doge will be positive or negative for the long term health of The United States?
这个问题来自俄勒冈州波特兰市的斯科特·威廉姆斯(Scott Williams)。他问道:你认为政府效率部(DOGE)对美国的长期健康发展而言,净效应会是正面的还是负面的?
P5864:14:31
Warren BuffettChairman and CEO
Well, why don't you give me a hard one? I think that I think that bureaucracy is something that is amazingly prevalent and contagious even in our capital system. And that big corporations, you know, overwhelmingly, most of them look like they could be run better. I'm sure Berkshire does in many way many respects. And it it, you know, and government is the ultimate.
嗨,你怎么不挑个更难的问题来考我呢?我认为官僚主义是一种惊人普遍而且极具传染性的现象,即便在我们的资本主义体系下也是如此。放眼那些大型企业,绝大多数看起来都还有管理得更好的空间——我敢肯定伯克希尔在很多方面也是如此。而政府则是官僚主义的终极形态。
P5874:15:16
So it it it it it really doesn't have any checks on it. And that's why it scares you to some extent about about what the future of the currency will be because they can print currency. And and if you have people that get elected by promising people things, and that doesn't mean that they aren't sincere about all kinds of items, but there's no politician that says to anybody that, at least if they have money, that, you know, I really think you have bad breath. And if you don't mind, would you step over and away from me? It just doesn't happen.
因为政府基本上缺乏真正有效的外部制衡。这也正是为什么一想到货币的未来,你或多或少会感到担忧——因为政府可以印钞票。如果政客们是靠向选民许诺各种好处而当选的——这并不是说他们在各种议题上不真诚——但没有任何一位政客会对选民(至少是对有钱有票的选民)直说:“我觉得你有口臭,要是不介意的话,能不能请离我远一点?”这种事根本不可能发生。
P5884:16:02
They and so I I think the problem of how you control revenue and expenses in government is the one that is never fully solved and has has really hurt dramatically certain many civilizations. And I don't think we're immune from it and we've come close to it. But if you tell me how in in democracy, you go in and really change things. You know, we're we're operating at a fiscal deficit now that is unsustainable over a very long period We don't know whether that means two years or twenty years.
因此,我认为如何控制政府的财政收入与支出,是一个从来没有被彻底解决过的难题,而且在历史上曾经给许多文明造成过极其惨重的伤害。我不认为我们天生对此有免疫力,而且我们已经离危险边缘很近了。但如果你问我在民主体制下怎么大刀阔斧地真正改变现状——要知道,我们目前的财政赤字规模在很长一段时期内是不可持续的,只不过我们不知道这个“不可持续”的临界点是在两年后还是二十年后到来。
P5894:16:51
That because there's never been a country like The United States. But you know that if something can't go on forever, it will end, the quote of Herbert Schneider, famous economist. And we are doing something that is unsustainable. And and it has the it has the aspect to it that it gets uncontrollable at a certain point. I mean, essentially, you just give up on it.
因为历史上还从未有过像美国这样的国家。但正如著名经济学家赫伯特·斯坦(Herbert Stein,语音转写误作 Schneider)的名言所说:“如果一件事不可能永远持续下去,它就终将停止。”我们现在做的事情就是不可持续的。而且这种财政赤字问题有一个特点:一旦越过某个临界点,它就会彻底失控——到那时候,人们基本上就只能彻底放弃抵抗了。
P5904:17:23
And Paul Volker, you know, kept that from happening in The United States, but we came close. We've come close multiple times. And, you know, the we've still had very substantial inflation in The United States, but it's never been run away yet. And and that's not something you wanna try and experiment with because it feeds on itself. So I I wouldn't want the job of of trying to correct what's going on in revenue and the expenditures of The United States with roughly a 7% gap when probably a 3% gap is sustainable.
当年保罗·沃尔克(Paul Volcker)阻止了这种失控在美国发生,但当时我们已经离悬崖边很近了。我们曾多次逼近危险边缘。即便如此,美国还是经历过相当严重的通货膨胀,只是迄今为止还没有演变成失控的恶性通胀。而恶性通胀绝不是你想去尝试或拿来当试验品的东西,因为它会自我强化、越滚越大。所以我可不想揽下这份差事——在联邦财政收支缺口占 GDP 约 7%、而可持续的缺口水平大概只有 3% 的情况下,去设法纠正美国的财政收支失衡。
P5914:18:15
And then the further away you get from that, the more you get to where the uncontrollable begins. And I think that it's it's a job I don't want, but it's a job I think should be done. And congress does not seem good at doing it. Well, it sounds like you should quit while I'm ahead. It it's it's well, we've got a lot of problems always as a country, but but this is one we bring on ourselves.
偏离可持续水平越远,你就越接近失控的边缘。这是一份我不想接手的工作,但我认为这是一件必须去做的事;而国会看起来并不擅长做这件事。好吧,听起来我该见好就收、别再往下多说了。作为一个国家,我们任何时候都会面临各种各样的问题,但财政赤字这个问题完全是我们自己给自己招来的。
P5924:19:07
I mean, it it we have a revenue stream, a capital producing stream, a brains producing machine like the world has never seen. And if you picked a way to screw it up, it would involve the currency. And and that's happened a lot of places and and the incentives plus the checks, well, there aren't there aren't any real change. In theory, you would make it so there was substantial downside for anybody that screwed things up. But there isn't downside.
我是说,我们拥有全世界前所未见的财政收入来源、资本创造源泉以及人才培育机器。如果非要挑一种方式把这一切搞砸,那就是从货币下手。这种悲剧在世界上很多地方都发生过;而现有的激励机制加上缺乏有效制约——实际上并没有任何真正的改变。理论上,你应该建立一套机制,让任何把财政搞砸的人承担巨大的负面后果;但现实中他们不仅没有下行惩罚,
P5934:19:51
There's upside. So it it's the the problem of the most successful company in the history of the country in the history of the world. And at this point, we got a little room to go in in solving them. With that, I'll shut up and go on to Station 3.
反而只有讨好选民的上行好处。这就是人类历史上最成功的国家所面临的难题。而在眼下这个时点,我们还有一点余地去设法解决这些问题。说到这里我就打住了,下面请第 3 提问区提问。
P5944:20:21
SashaShareholder, Shareholder (Germany)
Hello, mister Buffett. My name is Sasha from Gifford, Germany. And first of all, I want to thank you because you made such a great impact in my life and the life, the people I love, and that's priceless.
您好,巴菲特先生。我叫萨莎(Sasha),来自德国吉夫霍恩(Gifhorn)。首先我想向您表达感谢,因为您对我的人生以及我所爱之人的生活产生了如此深远的影响,这是无价的。
P5954:20:39
Warren BuffettChairman and CEO
Well, thank you.
非常感谢。
P5964:20:42
SashaShareholder, Shareholder (Germany)
Mister Buffett, imagine at seventeen seventy six, and you're sitting alongside Benjamin Franklin helping to shape the foundation of a new nation. What core economic principles would you advocate for building a far, fair, resilient, and opportunity driven capitalism society? One that supports long time prosperity for future generations.
巴菲特先生,请想象一下现在是1776年,您正坐在本杰明·富兰克林(Benjamin Franklin)身旁,共同为一个新生的国家奠定根基。为了建立一个公平、有韧性且由机会驱动、能够支撑子孙后代长久繁荣的资本主义社会,您会倡议确立哪些核心经济原则?
P5974:21:14
Warren BuffettChairman and CEO
Well, I I probably that's a good question, but it I would probably say to Ben Franklin, you just keep thinking and don't talk to me because you'll you'll come up with some better ideas than I will. He was, you know, incredibly remarkable person. Mean, would say he's almost probably the last person to almost have a grasp of every every aspect of of of activity in the country. He invented all kinds of things and he incidentally, we were talking about power of interest and that sort of thing. He he left a will that left a sub of money to Philadelphia and another some to Boston that would serve as an example for a couple hundred years, you know, of the power of compounding and all all kinds of things.
嗯,这个问题很好,不过我大概率会对本·富兰克林说:“你尽管继续思考,别跟我说话,因为你想出来的点子肯定比我高明得多。”他是一位极其了不起的人物。我想他大概是历史上几乎能够通晓这个国家各个领域活动的最后一人了。他发明了各种各样的东西;顺便提一句,我们刚才还在聊复利的力量之类的话题——他生前留下一份遗嘱,分别给费城和波士顿留下了一笔钱,在随后两百年的时间里作为展示复利力量以及诸多理念的鲜活范例。
P5984:22:12
I'm he he was so far ahead of his time that that the best thing I could do if I was under that tree with him was be to to get out get out of his way and let him just keep thinking. But it he saw the problems that success could bring to a society as well as other problems. I mean, more immediate problems that that in all kinds of fields. But the problems of how how to cause how to take 8,000,000,000 people because there's no way we can separate ourselves from the rest of the world. We can be an example for the rest of the world and I think it behooves us since we have had all this good fortune in this country and we do have a pretty good system.
他的思想远远超前于他的时代,如果我真的能和他坐在同一棵树下,我能做的最好的事就是别去打扰他、让他只管继续思考。他不仅看清了各个领域里那些迫在眉睫的现实问题,也预见到了成功本身可能给一个社会带来的问题。但至于如何让全球 80 亿人共同相处——因为我们绝无可能把自己同世界其他地方割裂开来——我们可以成为世界其他地区的榜样;而且既然我们在这个国家享受了如此多的幸运,并且拥有一套相当不错的制度,我认为我们也有责任做好表率。
P5994:23:17
I don't think it I don't think you get I don't think you get very far by lecturing the world on how the you are the one that you tell them what they should do with our lives. I think that I think you get a certain amount of resentment when just a few hundred years ago, a whole different group of countries were running a world. And and now you start giving them advice and it it it I think I think it's a real mistake in communication or in persuasion to to lecture a bunch of people, or you've just won the game. I mean, it that's but anyway, I I would say that I would advise Ben to figure out how to win the game and keep a certain amount of humility at the same time. And I would tell him to try and design a system that doesn't invent too many things that can destroy the planet, you know, that become uncontrollable once you get them out there.
我不认为居高临下地对全世界说教、以胜利者的姿态告诉别人应该如何生活,能让你走得多远。就在几百年前,主导世界的还是完全不同的另一批国家;现在你却开始对他们指手画脚,我认为这难免会招致某种程度的反感。无论是在沟通还是说服别人时,仅仅因为自己刚赢下比赛就去对别人说教,都是一个真正的错误。总之,我会建议本(富兰克林)既要想办法赢下比赛,同时又要保持一定的谦逊;我还会告诉他,要设法设计一套制度,别发明太多足以毁灭地球、一旦释放出来就会彻底失控的东西。
P6004:24:31
There was no alternative to us to follow me that had a bomb, but but but the expansion of the number of people that have the ability from one to eight and and nine probably pretty soon with Iran. I mean, that that's a mistake that society just cannot afford to make. I mean, solving the problem with nine variables instead of simply one. Now it's totally understandable. My dad was in congress when when the atom bomb was, first used.
当初为了对抗希特勒,我们别无选择只能造出原子弹;但拥有核武器能力的国家数量从1个扩散到8个,而且算上伊朗可能很快就要变成9个——这是人类社会绝对承受不起的错误。要把一个有9个变量的博弈难题解开,和只有1个变量完全不是一回事。当然,当年的历史过程完全可以理解。第一次使用原子弹的时候,我父亲正在国会担任众议员。
P6014:25:10
It's amazing how how, Sam Rayburn kept the House of Representatives uninformed. They're supposed to appropriate all the money and and 435 congressmen there and they had no idea they were appropriating money for for Los Alamos or what was going on in Chicago or what was going on in Tennessee. But anyway, we we we do have a society that is far beyond anything that Ben Franklin dreamt of. It's achieved some of the or is it it's moving toward in the right direction, towards solving some problems where we made kind of broad declarations about all men being created equal and and etcetera. And then we did some of the things we did.
令人惊叹的是,当时的众议院议长萨姆·雷伯恩(Sam Rayburn)居然让整个众议院对此毫不知情。按理说所有拨款都得经众议院批准,当时那里的 435 名众议员在批款时,根本不知道自己拨出的钱是用在了洛斯阿拉莫斯(Los Alamos),也不知道芝加哥或田纳西州正在进行什么秘密工程。不管怎么说,我们今天所拥有的社会,已经远远超越了本·富兰克林当年的任何梦想。我们当年曾作出“人人生而平等”之类宏大的宣言,虽然后来也做过一些背道而驰的事,但我们已经实现了一部分理想,或者说正朝着正确的方向迈进、去解决这些问题。
P6024:26:14
But generally speaking, we moved in the right direction. But we face problems that I don't know what how how how Ben Franklin would would attack the problem of of what you do once you get weapons of mass destruction in many hands. And when you essentially look at the world as something where there are winners and losers. And that the winners are, you know, humiliate the losers and do all kinds of things. But I'll I'll let the people who are a lot younger who figure out the answers on that.
总体而言,我们一直在朝着正确的方向前进。但我们如今面临的一些难题,我也不知道本·富兰克林会如何应对——比如一旦大规模杀伤性武器落入许多国家手中该怎么办,又比如当人们把世界看作一场分出赢家和输家的零和游戏,而赢家去羞辱输家、做出种种举动时该怎么办。这些问题我就留给比我年轻得多的人们去寻找答案吧。
P6034:27:04
But it's it's still the most wonderful. There's never been anything you could dream like what has happened in The United States. So we still it's it's the best place and the best time to be alive by by miles in the street. Just think of a couple hundred years ago and somebody, you know, yanking out a few of your teeth and pouring whiskey down you, doing I mean, and and the subsistence and and particularly in this Midwest, just imagine waiting till the Missouri froze over every year just to see whether you get your wagon across and maybe have a pregnant woman in the back. You know, when it is just amazing what has happened of a positive nature during my lifetime.
但这里依然是最美好的国度。美国所发生的一切,是过去任何人都无法想象的奇迹。现在依然是人类历史上最美好的时代,这里也依然是最美好的地方,把其他时代和地方远远甩在身后。只要想想两百年前的场景:有人硬生生拔掉你的几颗牙,往你嘴里灌威士忌止痛;再想想当年那种勉强糊口的生存状态,尤其是在我们这片中西部地区——试想一下,每年都要苦苦等到密苏里河结冰封冻,才能试着赶着马车过河,车后座上或许还坐着一位怀有身孕的妇人。在我这一生中,世界发生的积极巨变简直令人惊叹。
P6044:27:54
And then the question is is how do you how do you keep it and how do you improve it? And I I do think that fundamental to all of it though, is having a is having a currency that that does not get debased. What that does to the stability of a society where all the people that trust their government get screwed, and all the people that figure out ways to profit off of it become rich or richer. I I I don't think you want a society that operates in that manner. So anyway.
接下来的问题就是:我们如何守住这份成果,并让它变得更好?我认为,这一切最根本的基石之一,就是拥有一种不被贬值的货币。一旦货币大幅贬值,社会稳定就会遭到破坏——所有信任政府的老实人都会吃亏受害,而所有钻空子从中牟利的人却变得富有或更加富有。我可不希望看到一个以那种方式运转的社会。我就说这些吧。
P6054:28:46
Let's see. That was section three. So we're going to Becky. Is that right? Yep.
我看一下,刚才那是第3提问区。接下来轮到贝基了,对吧?好的。
P6064:28:53
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
That's right. Greg, this question's for you. It comes from a shareholder named Jay Milroy, who writes, mister Buffett has a hands off approach to managing the operating subsidiaries. How would you describe your approach?
没错。格雷格,这个问题是提给你的。提问的股东名叫杰伊·米尔罗伊(Jay Milroy),他写道:巴菲特先生对旗下运营子公司采取的是放手自治的管理方式。你会如何形容你的管理方式?
P6074:29:09
Warren BuffettChairman and CEO
Better.
比我更好。
P6084:29:13
Greg AbelVice Chairman of Non-Insurance Operations
Well, we've got our managers over there. And it I I would say going back to 2018, it's been a it's been very fortunate to be in this role because, one, I had to learn a lot of the businesses. And there's no question as Warren bought the businesses, had that general knowledge, I absolutely had to engage with each of them and they've been great in sharing their their business models, their approach, their thoughts around where the risks and opportunities are. And I think as we went through that, there's no question I had questions and wanted to engage with them. And Warren talks about the curiosity being important as you go through things.
嗯,我们的各位经理人今天也坐在台下。我得说,回溯到 2018 年我刚接手这个职位时,我感到非常幸运。首先,我必须深入了解旗下的许多业务。毫无疑问,沃伦当初收购这些企业时,对它们已经有了通盘的了解;而我则必须亲自与每一家企业深入对接。经理人们非常配合,坦诚地向我分享了他们的商业模式、经营方法以及对风险与机遇的思考。在这个过程中,我自然会产生很多问题,并希望与他们深入交流。沃伦刚才也提到,在探索事物时保持好奇心至关重要。
P6094:29:58
That would be my style to have questions and comments around their business, their frameworks. At the same time, they have great businesses and and they run them very autonomously, and that that remains in place. But if there's opportunities to see where, maybe you've seen something in another business or an opportunity I may see in their industry, we're gonna discuss it and see if that's something we should pursue or we properly addressing the risk. And I found all our managers to be absolutely engaging on that and and and want to have those dialogues. And I'd say that's a reflection of of my approach.
我的风格就是围绕他们的业务和经营框架提出问题、交流看法。与此同时,他们手头经营着非常优秀的企业,并且享有高度的自主经营权,这一原则依然保持不变。但如果我们看到某些机会——比如在另一家子公司看到了可借鉴的经验,或者我在他们所在的行业中观察到了某个机会——我们就会坐下来共同探讨,看看那是不是我们应该去把握的方向,或者我们是否已经妥善应对了相关风险。我发现我们所有的经理人都非常乐意参与这种探讨,也很欢迎这样的对话。我想这就是我管理方式的体现。
P6104:30:39
I'd also say that, when you think of our managers, again, very autonomous. They they run their businesses. They know it better than I ever will. But if I see an opportunity that it's well worth their time to talk to another one of our managers. If it's GEICO and they've gone through a technology transformation, they're not by themselves that need to be thinking that way.
我还要补充一点,说到我们的经理人,他们依然拥有高度的自主权,各自掌管着自己的企业,对业务的了解也永远比我更深。但如果我发现某个机会,觉得非常值得他们花时间去和我们旗下的另一位经理人交流借鉴——比方说 GEICO 经历了技术转型,那么需要以这种思路去思考技术问题的绝不止 GEICO 一家。
P6114:31:07
We want to make sure the right folks are talking and figuring out how we can benefit from the prior experiences. So it's, I would say more active. But hopefully in a very positive way and they and we got an exceptional group. So it's worked out exceptionally well as as I've gone through that period
我们希望确保对的人能够坐到一起交流,探讨如何从已有的经验中获益。所以我的方式可以说更加积极主动一些,但希望是以一种非常正面、建设性的方式来进行;而且我们拥有一支极其出色的管理团队,所以在这段时间里,这种方式取得了非常好的效果。
P6124:31:29
Warren BuffettChairman and CEO
of time. It's working way better with Greg than with me because, you know, I I just I didn't wanna work as hard as he works and and and I could get away with it because we've got a basically good business, very good business and and I wasn't in danger of you firing me by virtue of both ownership and the fact that we would do pretty well. But the fact that you can do pretty well doesn't mean you couldn't do better and and Greg can do better at many things. Many people want to be managed, need help in being managed. Some don't.
格雷格管起来比我管的时候效果好太多了。因为老实说,我不想像他工作得那么拼命;而且我之所以能偷这个懒,一是因为我们的业务底子本来就好、非常优秀,二是因为凭我的持股比例加上公司业绩本来就还不错,你们也没法解雇我。但做得还不错,并不意味着不能做得更好,而格雷格在很多事情上确实能做得更好。很多人其实是希望得到管理、在管理上需要支持和帮助的;当然也有一些人不需要。
P6134:32:12
Some you just leave alone. You know, we've had managers that would have been crazy to start giving instructions to because they just quit. And and I wouldn't blame them because I'd be the same type myself. But a lot of people I mean, people really do welcome direction and help and and and, you know, and particularly when they're getting it from somebody like Greg that really lives the life himself and doesn't just come down from high and say, you know, here's what you do while I do something else. You know, and and a manager that behaves differently than than what he's asking the people beneath them to behave.
对有些人你只需要放手不管就行。我们旗下就有过这样的经理人,如果你敢对他们发号施令,那纯粹是找死,因为他们立马就会辞职不干。我也完全不会怪他们,因为要是换作我自己,我也是这种脾气。但还有很多人确实非常欢迎方向上的指引和帮助,尤其是当这种指引来自像格雷格这样以身作则、身体力行的人,而不是高高在上地发号施令说“你们照我说的做,我自己另搞一套”。如果一个管理者自己的行为方式与他要求下属做到的行为准则背道而驰,
P6144:33:04
It it it just doesn't work over time. And people want a manager that they that they admire, and they're not gonna admire them if those people profess to behave in one manner and behave in another manner. It's easier, this is a sad thing, but it's it's easier for an organization to see its quality move downward than it is upward. I mean, if the boss behaves badly, it causes everybody to behave. I mean, it it it that is really catching.
时间一长是绝对行不通的。人们都希望有一个自己由衷敬佩的管理者;如果管理者嘴上标榜一套做法,实际干的却是另一套,下属是不可能敬佩他的。说来令人遗憾,一个组织的风气和品质想要往下滑落,远比往上提升要容易得多。如果老板自己行为不端,就会带动底下的每个人都有样学样——这种坏风气的传染力是极其惊人的。
P6154:33:50
It's not as catching on the way in upper management, but the manager is doing a lot of little things to grease his own situation, pretty soon let's say you're running a retail establishment. Pretty soon, all the employees or or or a lot of the employees are telling their friends that they they get a discount, you know, with the retail operation. And if they want they want if their friend wants something, they'll put it on their account and then forward, get the discount. Once you start deviating downward, it is really contagious and it is hard to rebuild. So you really need someone that behaves well on top and is not playing games for their own benefit.
高层的正面表率往下传导没有那么快,但如果管理者搞各种小动作给自己捞好处——比方说你经营一家零售店,很快店里的所有员工或者一大批员工就会告诉自己的朋友:自己在这家零售店买东西有内部员工折扣,如果朋友想买什么东西,就挂在员工自己的账户下买,然后转手把折扣让给朋友。一旦风气开始往下走偏,传染起来就快得惊人,而且要想重新整顿好就太难了。所以你真的需要最顶层的管理者行得正、坐得端,绝不为个人私利耍小聪明。
P6164:34:50
And and we get a lot of managers that bend over backwards not to do that sort of thing. And then we get a few that bend over forwards. And and if you get enough companies, you're gonna get a lot of different forms of behavior. And Greg does something about it, and I I've generally been lax in doing something about it, but he's done a way better job as that than I have. Okay.
我们旗下有很多经理人为了避嫌,在这类事情上极其克制、宁可自己吃亏;但也有少数人会顺杆爬、占小便宜。当你名下拥有足够多的企业时,你总会遇到形形色色的行为表现。格雷格遇到这种问题会出手整顿,而我过去在这方面通常比较松懈,所以他在这件事上比我干得出色得多。好了。
P6174:35:24
Station four.
请第4提问区提问。
P6184:35:29
Kansas LohmeierShareholder, Shareholder (Omaha)
Hello, mister Buffett and mister Abel. My name is Kansas Lohmeier. I am a junior at Elkhorn South High School and was born and raised in Omaha. My question is directed to Greg Abel. Berkshire Hathaway is the second largest utility provider in The United States.
巴菲特先生、阿贝尔先生,你们好。我叫堪萨斯·洛迈尔(Kansas Lohmeier),是埃尔克霍恩南高中(Elkhorn South High School)的一名高三学生,在奥马哈土生土长。我的问题想提给格雷格·阿贝尔。伯克希尔·哈撒韦是全美第二大公用事业电力供应商。
P6194:35:46
And in 2025, Reuters investigation found that is the coal fleet is the dirtiest in the nation. There is currently no concrete plans to retire coal and fully transition to renewable energy. I'm 17 years old. Considering that, what do you have to say to young people like me who will live with the consequences of climate change cons by companies like Berkshire?
而在 2025 年,路透社的一项调查发现,伯克希尔旗下的燃煤电厂机组是全美污染最严重的,而且目前没有任何淘汰煤电、全面转向可再生能源的具体计划。我今年 17 岁。考虑到这一点,对于像我这样将来要承受由伯克希尔这类企业造成的气候变化后果的年轻人,你有什么话要说?
P6204:36:26
Greg AbelVice Chairman of Non-Insurance Operations
Thank you for your your your both your question and your comments because it is it is important to to understand, say, Berkshire Hathaway Energy, but also how they operate. And and maybe using Iowa at least as a starting example, because I think that was one of the states cited in the report. One of the important things that I'd say early in us acquiring our energy companies, and I go back to when we acquired MidAmerican, We acquired it in 1999. Berkshire purchased MidAmerican in February. But one thing that became very clear to myself and our teams was that what we do within our utilities is really driven in two fronts.
感谢你的提问和坦诚的意见,因为理解伯克希尔·哈撒韦能源公司(BHE)以及它们的运作方式确实非常重要。不妨先拿爱荷华州作为例子讲起,因为我记得那份报告里重点提到了爱荷华州。回顾我们早期收购能源企业的经历——那要追溯到 1999 年我们收购中美能源(MidAmerican),伯克希尔在2000年(语音转写误作 February)完成了对中美能源的收购。当时我和团队非常明确地认识到一点:我们在公用事业公司所做的一切,实际上是由两个层面的要求驱动的。
P6214:37:18
One, we absolutely have to meet the requirements and the law that's laid out federally. But most importantly, we had to recognize we implement public policy across these states. And that was an interesting conversation when I go back to to Iowa. And again, the report cited that as a a significant problem. It was early in the February when, for the first time in Iowa, we were going to, as a utility, be short of power.
第一,我们绝对必须遵守联邦层面制定的法律法规与标准。但更重要的是,我们必须清楚,我们在各个州是在执行当地的公共政策。回顾爱荷华州的情况,当年就有过一次很有意思的对话——那份报告也把爱荷华州列为一个突出问题。那是在2000年代初(语音转写误作 February),我们在爱荷华州作为公用事业公司,历史上第一次面临电力短缺的局面。
P6224:37:52
So we didn't have the energy, and we entered into significant discussion with our governor at the time. And really sat down and said, where do you want us to go as, as Mid American? And what resources do you want as as a state? And at that time, we were predominantly a a coal based state. And and we recognize that, obviously, and and fundamentally, personally viewed it as a risk.
也就是说我们当时的发电能力不够了,于是我们与当时的州长进行了深入的探讨。我们坐下来开诚布公地问:“作为中美能源,你们希望我们朝哪个方向走?作为一个州,你们希望配置什么样的能源资源?”当时,爱荷华州主要是一个依赖煤电的州。我们显然意识到了这一点,而且从根本上说,我个人也把过度依赖煤电视为一种风险。
P6234:38:26
But we we needed to have that conversation with our state. And as to how we would manage that going forward, the interesting thing was that as we had that conversation in the early two thousands, again, with the leadership of our state, it was clearly decided we wanted to continue to be long power, so I. E. Not be short for our customers. We discussed the type of resource and I I remember, a very clear conversation around we wanted to stay balanced across a variety of energy sources.
但我们必须与州政府就未来的管理方向进行充分沟通。有意思的是,在2000年代初我们与州政府领导层沟通后,各方非常明确地作出了决定:我们希望继续保持电力充裕(long power),也就是说绝不能让客户面临缺电。接着我们讨论了电源结构的类型,我至今还清楚地记得那场讨论的结论——我们希望在多种能源之间保持平衡。
P6244:39:02
And at and at that time, it was really coal and natural gas. And at that time, we made the decision to build the largest wind project in the in The US, in Iowa. So we undertook an effort to build three resources, a coal plant, a gas plant, and a, what was the first wind project we owned in Mid American. And again, it was very consistent with what the state wanted, but we also laid some important groundwork there because we started to define the importance of, renewable energy, non carbon resources, but it has to be consistent with what the state wanted. And we've gone on over the since that period of time, to deploy 16,000,000,000 into Iowa associated with renewable energy.
而在当时,可选的主力电源主要是煤电和天然气发电。同时也在那个时候,我们决定在爱荷华州建设全美最大的风电项目。于是我们启动了三类电源项目的建设:一座燃煤电厂、一座天然气电厂,以及中美能源旗下的第一个风电项目。这一举措完全符合爱荷华州政府的期望,同时我们也在那里打下了重要的基础——我们开始明确可再生能源、无碳能源的重要性,但前提是它必须与所在州的公共政策方向保持一致。自那以后,我们已经在爱荷华州累计投入了 160 亿美元用于可再生能源建设。
P6254:40:03
Again, very consistent with what our state wanted us to do, I. E, the underlying policy. We don't get to make that decision and just spend 16,000,000,000. It's done in conjunction with our governors, our legislatures, our regulators. And at the same time, we've had the opportunity to retire five of the 10 coal units.
再强调一次,这完全符合爱荷华州政府希望我们做的事,也就是背后的公共政策导向。我们不可能自己拍脑袋就决定花掉 160 亿美元,这一切都是与各州州长、州议会以及监管机构共同协商推进的。与此同时,我们也借此机会关停退役了 10 台燃煤机组中的 5 台。
P6264:40:27
Now, as the report highlighted, I I understand people would like those other five coal units retired at this time. But to think we deployed 16,000,000,000 to retire five, And and it's a very good outcome for our customers. We've been able to maintain our rates. They're the some of the lowest in the country. So it's been done very efficiently.
正如那份报告所指出的,我完全理解人们希望看到剩下的 5 台燃煤机组现在也立刻退役。但请想一想,我们已经投入了 160 亿美元,退役了 5 台燃煤机组,而且为客户带来了非常好的结果——我们一直保持着电价稳定,爱荷华州的电价处于全美最低之列。所以整个转型过程推进得非常高效。
P6274:40:52
But the reality is we still need those five coal units to keep the system stable. We cannot have a Spain, Portugal situation. So we absolutely respect the input. We absolutely respect the process, and we'll continue to work with each of our states to identify the path they would like to chart. And we work hard to ensure, you know, there's good balanced outcomes because we recognize the challenges they're associated with others other folks' desire.
但现实情况是,我们目前仍然需要剩下的那 5 台燃煤机组来维持电网系统的稳定运行。我们绝对不能让西班牙和葡萄牙前不久发生的那种大停电事故在我们这里上演。因此,我们完全尊重各方的意见,也完全尊重政策制定的程序,并将继续与我们所在的各个州合作,走出一条符合各州意愿的能源转型路径。我们会努力确保实现良好、均衡的结果,因为我们也充分认识到其他各方诉求背后所伴随的现实挑战。
P6284:41:38
So I think you'll continue to see our utilities implement policy consistent with the with the needs of of their stakeholders or customers, and at the same time, respecting what, what's required by any any of the federal standards. So thank you for your for your comments.
所以你会看到,我们的公用事业子公司将继续执行符合利益相关方与客户需求的公共政策,同时严格遵守所有联邦标准的要求。非常感谢你的提问与意见。
P6294:42:08
Warren BuffettChairman and CEO
Okay. 31. Let's see. Becky.
好了,现在是2点 31 分了。我们看看,请贝基提问。
P6304:42:12
Becky QuickAnchor and Moderator, CNBC
This question comes from Billy Doros. He writes, mister Buffett, as a nurse from New York state, I've spent years struggling to secure good health insurance for myself even while working on the front lines to save lives. In New York, accessing insurance means navigating a confusing state run system that feels like it's designed to overwhelm. I'm curious what ultimately led to the end of your health care venture with JPMorgan and Amazon. And given your commitment to value and long term thinking, would you ever consider taking another look at health insurance reform in The US?
这个问题来自比利·多罗斯(Billy Doros)。他写道:巴菲特先生,作为一名来自纽约州的护士,尽管我常年奋战在挽救生命的第一线,却多年来一直为给自己找一份好的医疗保险而苦苦挣扎。在纽约州,获取医保意味着要在一个令人眼花缭乱、仿佛故意让人不知所措的州办系统里摸索。我很好奇,当年你与摩根大通(JPMorgan)和亚马逊(Amazon)联合创办的医疗保健合资项目,最终为什么会无果而终?鉴于你对价值和长期主义的坚持,你未来是否还会考虑再次关注并参与美国的医疗保险改革?
P6314:42:46
Yeah. We're
是的,我们
P6324:42:48
Warren BuffettChairman and CEO
we're spending close. It's it's hard to get the precise figure, close to 20% of GDP on health. And if you go back to 1960, there were a number of countries that were each spending around 5%. And then they the lines began to diverge dramatically. But the mathematical fact that there are only a hundred percentage points in the equation didn't change.
我们美国在医疗健康上的支出——很难拿到完全精确的数字——已经接近 GDP 的 20%。如果回溯到 1960 年,当时好几个主要国家的医疗支出占 GDP 比重都差不多在 5% 左右。随后,美国的曲线开始与其他国家出现戏剧性的分化。但一个基本的数学事实从来没有改变:GDP 的总和永远只有100个百分点。
P6334:43:24
So we tried that experiment with JPMorgan and Amazon. And we had three people that didn't think they knew the answer and but thought that, in my case I used the term that that it was a tapeworm in the economy. And we also found out that that the tapeworm was alive in every in every part of the country. Mean, the the hospitals liked it. The hospitals had prominent people who work with people.
所以我们当年和摩根大通、亚马逊一起做了那次尝试。我们三位创始人当时都不认为自己手里已经有现成的答案,但都觉得应该试一试——就我个人而言,我曾把美国的医疗成本比作吞噬经济的一条“绦虫”(tapeworm)。而在实际推进中我们发现,这条“绦虫”在这个国家的每一个角落都生命力旺盛。医院喜欢现有的体系,而且医院里有许多受人敬重的知名人士在为民众服务。
P6344:44:10
People generally like their doctor, didn't like the but didn't like the system. I mean, all kinds of things. But in the end, JPMorgan and Amazon and Berkshire were not going to have any effect on changing that 20%. Now that 20%, there are only a hundred percentage points available, and one of the countries spends six or 7% and perhaps use our system to their advantage, which is also very true. You know, that is an enormous percentage of of an economy, and we simply that it was too entrenched to really do much in the way of change.
老百姓通常很喜欢自己的医生,只是不喜欢整个医疗体系——里头有各种各样盘根错节的因素。但归根结底,摩根大通、亚马逊和伯克希尔三家加在一起,也根本撼动不了那 20% 的医疗支出占比。要知道总共只有100个百分点的 GDP,当别的国家只花 6% 或 7%(当然他们或许也搭了我们医疗研发体系的便车,这也是事实),而我们却要花掉 20%——这在一个经济体中是一个无比庞大的比例,我们最终发现现有体系已经根深蒂固,凭我们的力量实在难以促成实质性的改变。
P6354:45:04
And we spent some money on it, we did some work, and we learned a good bit about our own systems. And we saw the degree to which the present system was ingrained in so many people's, you know, whether the health care providers or whether everybody these aren't evil people. I mean, they're just they're just going about something and trying to trying to save lives. But but we found that whether it was in Canada or France or Britain or wherever it might be, And if you looked at our costs, they were just far higher. And to some extent, we were subsidizing the rest of the world and people would come to The United States to do the really unusual or challenging aspects of health in terms of operations and that sort of thing.
我们在这个项目上花了一些钱,做了一些工作,也对我们自身的内部医保体系有了不少了解。我们亲眼看到了现行体系在无数人当中扎根有多深——无论是医疗服务提供方还是其他各个环节。这些人并不是什么坏人,他们只是在按部就班地工作、努力挽救生命。但我们发现,无论是和加拿大、法国、英国还是其他任何国家相比,我们的医疗成本都高出一大截。在某种程度上,我们是在补贴全世界,而且世界各地的人们遇到真正罕见或极具挑战性的疑难重症手术时,也会来到美国求医。
P6364:46:13
But we we made no progress. And there comes a point where the government's, you know, I mean it's so involved in the situation and health is so important to most to everybody. And we couldn't we we we've what was I said to Jamie and Jeff, I said, well, the tapeworm won. And there are problems in society when you get 20% of your GDP going into a given industry. The degree of enthusiasm for changing that industry, the political power that the industry will have, and that doesn't mean they're evil.
但我们没能取得任何实质性进展。事情到了某一步,你会发现政府在里面的介入是如此之深,而且医疗健康对每个人来说又如此攸关生死。最后我对杰米(Jamie Dimon)和杰夫(Jeff Bezos)说:“好吧,绦虫赢了。”当一个国家有 20% 的 GDP 都流向某一个特定行业时,社会就会面临这样一个难题:这个行业内部改变现状的意愿极低,而它所拥有的政治影响力又极其庞大——这并不意味着从业者是坏人。
P6374:47:10
It's and and, you know, everybody, they just end up there. And so I don't know the I we did we we came to conclusion we didn't know the answer, three of us. And we had the money to do it. And we didn't know how to change how 330,000,000 people felt about their doctor, felt about their health care, what they felt to and it's it won't change by itself. And government is the only one that can change it.
只是每个人身处其中,自然就会维护现有的格局。所以我们三个人最终得出结论:我们不知道答案是什么。我们完全有足够的资金去做这件事,但我们不知道该如何改变 3.3 亿美国人对待自己医生、对待自身医疗保健的固有观念和习惯;而这个体系是不会靠自己自动改变的。唯一有能力改变它的只有政府。
P6384:47:57
And the only people in government that can change it are getting majority of 435 people and a hundred people. And and my dad lost one election in his life in 1948. And he was a very strong Republican. And in 1950, he went back and beat the guy that beat him in 1948 and he got the doctors behind him. And and he did very, you know, they're very well and they believe a % of what they're doing.
而在政府里,唯一能改变它的方式就是在 435 名众议员和100名参议员中拿到多数票。我父亲一辈子只在 1948 年输掉过一次竞选。他是一位非常坚定的共和党人。到了 1950 年,他卷土重来,击败了 1948 年战胜他的那个对手,而当时他得到了医生群体的全力支持。医生们在社会上声望很高,而且他们百分之百相信自己所做的工作。
P6394:48:31
They're helping people every day. And during the pandemic, the sacrifices made by people, save other people, just incredible. Can you imagine working in something where they're bringing in people that are, you know, gonna die by the dozens and dozens and dozens and you try to somehow keep your own morale up and keep working with them. So you can't argue about the importance of it, but our costs are so different than any country in the world that it's a it is just it's a huge element. And we're a very rich country, so we can do other we can do things other countries can't do.
他们每天都在救死扶伤、帮助他人。在新冠疫情期间,医护人员为了挽救他人生命所作出的牺牲简直令人震撼。你能想象在那种环境下工作吗?每天都有成批成批即将死去的危重病人被送进来,而你还得设法鼓起自己的士气、继续抢救他们。所以你绝对无法否认医疗行业的重要性;但我们的医疗成本与世界上任何其他国家都相差悬殊,这实在是一个无比沉重的负担。只因为我们是一个非常富裕的国家,所以我们还能负担得起其他国家负担不起的做法。
P6404:49:15
And through our elected representatives and a whole variety of things over time, we've developed a system that is enormously resistant to any kind of major major change and it's important in every community that it's in. So I wish we had an answer for you, but but I was somewhat pessimistic going in, I was a little more pessimistic when we came out. But I'm glad I'm glad we did what we did, and and we learned something about our own failings in the process. So Berkshire, in effect, got its money's worth, but we didn't kill the tapeworm. Okay.
通过我们的民选代表以及长期以来的各种制度演变,我们形成了一套对任何重大变革都具有极强抗拒力的医疗体系,而且医疗行业在它所在的每一个社区都举足轻重。我真希望我们能给你一个满意的答案,但我在启动那个项目时就有些悲观,退出时则变得更悲观了一点。不过我依然很高兴我们做了那次尝试,在这个过程中我们也认识到了自身的不足。所以从效果上说,伯克希尔花出去的钱是值回票价的,只是我们没能消灭那条“绦虫”。好了。
P6414:50:03
Trying to change things in government is, it's an interesting proposition in the country because you get self selection in terms of the people that go into government and continue in it. And to some extent, they keep they have to make decisions that they don't like as they go along. And they learn to accept them or to rationalize them or whatever it may be, but it's still about, you know, this country's worked out better than any country in the world. So it but you can't argue it was a failure, but you can argue that there is that there are certain problems that are terribly tough to figure out ways to solve. And of course, one of them gets back to the fiscal problem I mentioned before because it's it's easy to spend money and it's hard to cut people's receipts.
在这个国家,试图推动政府层面的改变是一件很有意思的事,因为进入政界并一直留在里面的人,本身就经历了一轮自我筛选。在某种程度上,他们在从政过程中不得不不断作出一些自己内心并不喜欢的妥协决定,然后慢慢学会接受这些决定、或者为自己找理由合理化。但即便如此,这个国家的发展成就依然超过了世界上任何其他国家。所以你不能说这套政治制度是失败的,但你确实可以说,有些棘手的问题想要找到解决办法实在是太难了。当然,其中之一又回到了我刚才提到的财政赤字问题——因为花钱总是很容易,而削减别人到手的福利和收入却难如登天。
P6424:51:04
And and if you get elected, you know, you were going to you're going to say to yourself, well, I can do more good if I stay in than if I really vote my conscience on this sort of thing. You give away a little bit here, and a little bit there, and a little bit there, and finally you don't recognize yourself in the mirror anymore. And and that's I grew up in a political family, but but and I watched I watched how people behaved and and and they behaved like human beings, which is what you have to expect. And I behave like human beings. Still manage to keep moving forward in a dramatic way.
一旦你当选了议员,你往往就会对自己说:“如果我能保住席位留在国会,将来还能做更多好事;要是现在完全凭良心投票而落选,就什么也做不了了。”于是你在这里让步一点,在那里妥协一点,再在别处退让一点,到最后你在镜子里都认不出自己了。我在一个政治家庭长大,亲眼目睹了人们的所作所为——他们的表现就是真实的人性,而你也必须接受人性的本来面目。我自己也是凡人,也有人性的弱点。但即便如此,这个国家依然在以惊人的速度不断向前迈进。
P6434:51:51
It's so much better to live here than it was a hundred years ago or two hundred years ago. It's it's dramatic. So you can't say the system's a failure, but you can say that it is very difficult to make major changes in it. Okay. Station five.
今天生活在这里,比一百年前或两百年前不知道要好多少倍,这种进步是翻天覆地的。所以你不能说这个制度是失败的,但你确实可以说,要在其中推进重大变革非常困难。好了,请第5提问区提问。
P6444:52:17
Pig Huang ChenShareholder, Shareholder (Taiwan)
Hi. Warren Greg. My name is Pig Huang Chen. I'm from Taiwan. This is my seventh time here.
嗨,沃伦、格雷格。我叫陈壁煌(音,Pig Huang Chen),来自台湾。这是我第七次来到这里参会。
P6454:52:24
First of all, I wanna thank you, Warren, for your generosity. It was sharing your wisdom and lesson. You changed my life, and you're my role model and my hero. And my question is, Warren, you mentioned that mister Apple would be in charge of capital allocation in the future. And I like to know your perspective on is it easier for a business operator to be an investor or for investor to be a business operator?
首先,沃伦,我想感谢你的慷慨无私,感谢你一直分享你的智慧与人生经验。你改变了我的人生,你是我的榜样,也是我的英雄。我的问题是:沃伦,你提到阿贝尔先生(语音转写误作 Apple 先生)未来将负责伯克希尔的资本配置。我想听听你的看法:究竟是一个企业经营者转型做投资者更容易,还是一个投资者转型做企业经营者更容易?
P6464:52:54
Thank you.
谢谢。
P6474:52:54
Warren BuffettChairman and CEO
No. That's a good question. I see we call him mister Apple even. Yeah. Thank you.
这个问题问得很好。我注意到连语音字幕都把格雷格叫成“苹果先生”(Mr. Apple)了。谢谢你的提问。
P6484:53:00
And I'll tell you, you'll take it. And It's a lot tougher to be an operator. I mean, it it is it's easier to sit in a room like I do and play around with money. It's just an easier life. That doesn't mean it's a more admirable life.
我就直说吧:做一名企业经营者(operator)要难得多。我是说,像我这样坐在房间里跟资金打交道要轻松得多,这纯粹是一种更轻松惬意的生活——当然,这并不意味着它是更令人钦佩的生活。
P6494:53:23
It doesn't but it's been actually been a pleasant life for me, so I I don't complain at least. And and I've I've been able to choose my friends, which has made an enormous difference in my life. I've never had to work anybody that I really didn't admire. I mean, that's a luxury in life. I had five different people I worked for.
它未必更崇高,但对我个人而言确实是一段非常愉快的人生,所以我至少没有任何可抱怨的。而且我这一生能够自己选择朋友,这对我的人生有着无比巨大的意义。我从来没有被迫为任何一个我并不真正敬佩的人工作过,这在人生中是一种莫大的奢侈。我一生先后为五位雇主工作过。
P6504:53:55
And, you know, I just they were fantastic whether it was with the manager of the local pennies, which is located well, it used to be located a couple miles from here, and newspaper managers, everything there. Have never been really disappointed by any teacher I've had. So but I would have to admit that that I've been able to choose what I do with my day to an extraordinary degree compared to be a business operator. And and in many cases, I wouldn't like to compete to be a top notch business operator in terms of some of the some of the some of the behavior that would might be forceful on me. I I am the master.
他们每一位都棒极了——无论是当年距离这里只有几英里的当地杰西潘尼百货(J.C. Penney)的经理,还是报社的管理人员,全都非常好。我也从来没有对任何一位教过我的老师感到失望过。但我必须承认,与一名实业经营者相比,我能够极其自由地决定自己每天干什么。而且在很多情况下,我并不愿意为了成为一名顶尖的实业经营者去参与那种竞争,因为那可能会迫使我做出一些我不喜欢的行为。现在我是自己生活的主宰。
P6514:54:58
I mean, I'm I'm I'm I'm found myself in this position where I can I can run the kind of company I wanna run and and that that that's an extraordinary luxury? With the with that, I should say that I'm getting a a section that says five minute warning exclamation point, five minute warning exclamation point. So I would now like to turn to a subject that I wanna discuss with you a few minutes and then when I'm through discussing this, I'll let Becky ask me a question or two, which may want you may want some elaborate questions that come to you as I I make these comments. Tomorrow, we're having a board meeting of Berkshire, and we have 11 directors. Two of the directors who are my children, how he and Susie know of what I'm going to talk about there.
我是说,我发现自己处在这样一个位置上:我可以完全按照自己想要的方式去经营一家自己想要的公司,这是一种非同寻常的奢侈。说到这里,我得告诉大家,我面前的提示屏上正亮着“倒计时五分钟警告!倒计时五分钟警告!”(连打了两个感叹号)。所以现在我想转入一个话题,花几分钟时间和大家聊一聊;等我讲完之后,我会让贝基问我一两个问题——听完我接下来的这番话,你们或许会有一些想进一步追问的问题。明天我们将召开伯克希尔的董事会会议,我们共有 11 位董事。其中两位董事是我的孩子——霍伊(Howie)和苏茜(Susie),他们俩已经知道我明天要在董事会上提什么了。
P6524:56:04
The rest of them, this will come as news too. But I think it it's the time has arrived where Greg should become the chief executive officer of the company at year end. And I wanna spring that on the directors effectively and then give that as my recommendation. Let them have the time to think about what questions or what structures or anything they want. And then there's a meeting following that, which will come in a few months, we'll take action on whatever the view is of the 11 directors.
而对其余董事来说,这也将是一条新闻。但我认为,让格雷格在今年年底正式出任公司首席执行官(CEO)的时机已经到了。我想实际上先把这个提议抛给各位董事,作为我的正式建议,让他们有充足的时间去思考自己有什么问题、或者希望采取什么样的组织架构等等。然后在几个月之后召开的下一次董事会会议上,我们将根据 11 位董事的意见正式采取行动。
P6534:56:55
I I think they'll be unanimously in favor of it. And that would mean that at year end, Greg would be the chief executive officer of Berkshire and I would still hang around and conceivably be useful in a few cases. But the but the final word would be what Greg said in operations, in capital deployment, whatever it might be. I could be helpful, I believe, in that in certain respects if we ran into periods of great opportunity or anything. I I think that Berkshire has a special reputation that when there's times of trouble for the government, that we are an asset and not a liability, which is a position that very hard to have because usually the the public and and government get very negative on on business if there's a time like that.
我认为他们会一致赞成这项提议。那就意味着到今年年底,格雷格将正式成为伯克希尔的首席执行官;而我依然会留在公司里,在少数情况下或许还能派上点用场。但无论是日常运营、资本配置还是其他任何事务,最终拍板决定的人都将是格雷格。我相信,如果我们遇上重大投资机会之类的特殊时期,我在某些方面依然能帮得上忙。我认为伯克希尔拥有一种特殊的声誉:每当政府和金融体系陷入危机时刻,我们是一项助力资产而非负担累赘——这是一种极难获得的地位,因为一旦到了那种危机时刻,公众和政府通常会对企业界抱有非常负面的情绪。
P6544:58:15
But I so I think I could there might be a time when I'll I'd be over, Greg would have the tickets and and he would make, like I said, whether it's acquisitions, I think the board would be more welcome to giving him more authority on large acquisitions probably if they knew I was around. But he would be the chief executive period. And I can say the plan is to and Greg doesn't know anything about this until what he's hearing right now. But that yeah. The board will be able to ask me questions tomorrow as to a little more of the specifics of of what they should be thinking and all that.
所以我想,将来或许会有需要我搭把手的时候,但格雷格将掌握主导权——无论是企业收购还是其他事务,我想如果董事会知道我还留在旁边协助,他们大概也会更放心地授予格雷格在大额收购上更大的决策权限。但格雷格将是毫无疑问的首席执行官,这一点没有任何含糊。顺便说一句,在此时此刻亲耳听到我这番话之前,格雷格本人对这件事也毫不知情。明天的董事会上,各位董事可以向我提问,进一步了解他们需要考虑的具体细节等等。
P6554:59:20
But they they'll they'll they'll digest it. And and then at the next board meeting after that, If we, as I would guess we would, if they act, then obviously we we have something to announce to the world. It's a material change and perkure, and we'll go forward with that operation. And and I will play with a Ouija board or whatever, and that comes out in terms of doing things. But but I will not.
他们会先消化这个提议;等到再下一次董事会会议时,如果他们像我预计的那样正式作出决议,那么届时我们显然就会向全世界发布正式公告。这是伯克希尔(语音转写误作 perkure)的一项重大人事变动,之后我们就会按新的架构继续向前推进。至于我呢,到时候就玩玩通灵板(Ouija board)或者干点别的什么。但有一点我绝不会做:
P6565:00:01
I have no intention, zero, of selling one share of Berkshire Hathaway. It'll get get given away gradually. Yeah. It just won't. Thank you.
我没有任何打算——一股都不会卖——我绝不会卖掉哪怕一股伯克希尔·哈撒韦的股票。我的股票只会按计划逐步捐赠出去。是的,一股都不会卖。谢谢大家。
P6575:01:57
Okay. Drink a Coke and calm down. I I would say that I would add this. The the decision to keep every share is an economic decision because I think the prospects of Berkshire will be better under regs management than than mine. And and but, you know, I will I will come in and and and there may come a time when we get a chance to invest a lot of money.
好了,大家喝口可乐冷静一下。我还想补充一点:决定保留每一股伯克希尔股票,完全是一个基于经济利益的理性决定——因为我认为,在格雷格的管理下,伯克希尔的前景会比在我的管理下更好。当然我还会来办公室上班,将来也许会出现让我们有机会投入巨额资金的时刻。
P6585:02:37
And and and if that time comes, I think it may be helpful with the board. The fact that they know I've got all my money in the the company and that I think it's smart. I've seen what Greg has done. So that's the news hook for the day, follow and thanks for coming. The enthusiasm shown by that response could be interpreted in two ways, but I'll take a surprise.
如果那样的时刻到来,我想我留在公司对董事会来说也会有所帮助——因为他们知道我把自己的全部身家都放在了这家公司里,而且我认为这样做很明智,因为我已经亲眼见证了格雷格的表现。好啦,这就是今天留给大家的压轴大新闻(news hook),伙计们,感谢大家的到来!现场大家这样热烈的掌声反应可以有两种解读,不过我就当大家是感到惊喜吧。
P6595:03:45
Thank you.
谢谢大家。
P6605:04:12
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
There you have it. Another Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting in the books, in an extraordinary one. This meeting just ended with a bang with Warren Buffett suggesting to the Berkshire board that Greg Abel become the CEO at year's end. This was Warren Buffett's sixtieth annual meeting as CEO. There was some anticipation.
各位都听到了,又一届伯克希尔·哈撒韦年度股东大会载入史册,而且是极其非凡的一届。这场大会在最后时刻抛出了一枚重磅炸弹:沃伦·巴菲特将向伯克希尔董事会提议,由格雷格·阿贝尔在今年年底接任首席执行官。这是沃伦·巴菲特作为 CEO 主持的第60届年度股东大会。此前外界虽有种种猜测,
P6615:04:32
At some point, a transition would happen. Greg Abel was always, the heir apparent and the designated successor, but it is formalized here. Warren Buffett also saying that he would be around to help, especially if there were any big consequential deals that might come around. Well, of course, the entire hall, including Greg Abel, was was surprised by this. Let's listen to to how he delivered that news.
知道交接班迟早会在某个时间点发生——格雷格·阿贝尔也一直是公认的接班人和指定继任者——但今天这一交接终于有了正式的时间表。沃伦·巴菲特同时也表示,他还会留在公司提供帮助,尤其是在未来出现重大并购交易机会的时候。当然,包括格雷格·阿贝尔本人在内,整个会场的所有人都对这一消息感到震惊。让我们再来回听一下他是如何宣布这一重磅消息的。
P6625:04:56
Warren BuffettChairman and CEO
Greg should become the chief executive officer of the company at year end and I wanna spring that on the directors effectively and then give that as my recommendation. Let them have the time to think about what questions or what structures or anything that they want. And then there's a meeting following that, which will come in a few months. We'll take action on whatever the view is of the 11 directors. I I think they'll be unanimously in favor of it.
让格雷格在今年年底正式出任公司首席执行官(CEO),我想实际上先把这个提议抛给各位董事,作为我的正式建议,让他们有充足的时间去思考自己有什么问题、或者希望采取什么样的组织架构等等。然后在几个月之后召开的下一次董事会会议上,我们将根据 11 位董事的意见正式采取行动。我认为他们会一致赞成这项提议。
P6635:05:41
And that would mean that at year end, Craig would be the chief executive officer of Berkshire.
那就意味着到今年年底,格雷格(语音转写误作 Craig)将正式成为伯克希尔的首席执行官。
P6645:05:56
Mike SantoliSenior Markets Commentator, CNBC
And this is what it looked and sounded like in the hall as the shareholders absorbed, that blockbuster news.
下面是当股东们消化完这一重磅消息后,整个会场起立鼓掌的画面与声音。
P6655:06:35
Warren BuffettChairman and CEO
Thank you. That
谢谢大家。